We're In For A Brutal Hurricane Season, According To Predictions

This episode delves into the prediction of an unusually severe hurricane season, the underlying scientific reasons, and practical preparation tips.

1. An exceptionally active hurricane season is predicted with potentially over 24 storms.
2. Human-induced climate change is a significant factor, raising ocean temperatures and contributing to more severe hurricanes.
3. High ocean temperatures provide energy that intensifies storms, increasing their likelihood of becoming major hurricanes.
4. Preparation and awareness can significantly reduce risks associated with hurricanes.
5. The episode emphasizes the importance of community and personal preparation plans, particularly for those in hurricane-prone areas.

1: Introduction

Discussion of the episode's focus on the upcoming severe hurricane season and initial thoughts on the causes. Emily Kwong: "It's hurricane season again." Rebecca Hersher: "Catches me by surprise every year."

2: Scientific Explanation

Exploration of why this year's hurricane season is predicted to be worse, including scientific and climatic factors. Rebecca Hersher: "The National Hurricane Center is predicting between 17 and 25 storms." Gavin Schmidt: "They've been in record-breaking territory for almost the entire last twelve months."

3: Preparation Strategies

Advice on how to prepare for the hurricane season, emphasizing the importance of early and thorough planning. Rebecca Hersher: "Get prepared now. Do not wait until one of these many, many predicted storms is headed your way." Eric Hooks: "Do you have medication that requires refrigeration?"

1. Evacuation Plan: Establish a clear evacuation route and plan, including arrangements for pets.
2. Stay Informed: Regularly check weather updates and advisories throughout the hurricane season.
3. Home Safety: Secure your home by reinforcing windows and doors and removing potential debris.
4. Emergency Kit: Prepare an emergency kit with essentials like water, food, medications, and important documents.
5. Community Support: Assist neighbors who may need help preparing, especially the elderly and those with disabilities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a record number of hurricanes this season, which began on June 1 and runs through Nov. They're forecasting anywhere from 17 to 25 storms in the Atlantic basin, including at least four major hurricanes. Scientists think this storm activity could be due to strong winds, warmer ocean temperatures and a scientific mystery unfolding in the Atlantic.

People

• Emily Kwong
• Rebecca Hersher
• Gavin Schmidt
• Eric Hooks

Companies

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Books

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Guest Name(s):

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Content Warnings:

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Emily Kwong
You're listening to short wave from NPR.

Rebecca Hersher
Hey, Emily Kwong.

Emily Kwong
Hey, Rebecca Hersher, NPR climate desk correspondent. How are you?

Rebecca Hersher
I'm great.

Also, it's hurricane season again.

Emily Kwong
Yeah, you know, it happens every year.

Rebecca Hersher
Happens every year. Catches me by surprise every year. And, you know, most years I end up talking to you about it because there's so much science in hurricanes, especially as the climate changes, and especially this year, honestly, because this year is groan worthy pun a bit of a perfect storm situation for hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Emily Kwong
On the contrary, I'm not groaning. I'm a little nervous to hear this. What's up with the Atlantic?

Rebecca Hersher
Uh, it's not good, but it's also weirdly interesting.

Emily Kwong
Does this perfect storm situation have something to do with all the hot weather we've been having? Like June has been toasty.

Rebecca Hersher
Infernal is the word I would use. Yeah, yeah. No, it totally does have something to do with that. So the high temperatures on land but also in the ocean play a big part, although there's definitely more to the story, including a bit of a scientific mystery that is unfolding in the Atlantic right now.

Emily Kwong
Well, let's get into it. So today on the show, the Atlantic hurricane forecast for this year is more active than ever. We get into the science behind that forecast and how to prepare. If you live in a hurricane prone.

Rebecca Hersher
Area, which, newsflash, is like half of the United States, everyone lives in a hurricane prone area. I mean, not everyone, but a lot.

Emily Kwong
Of people could be you. So keep listening to short wave, the science podcast from NPR.

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Emily Kwong
All right, Rebecca Herscher, esteemed colleague and pure climate correspondent.

Rebecca Hersher
Yes, Emily.

Emily Kwong
So the Atlantic hurricane season, it's already begun. June 1 is when it kicked off, right?

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah. So we're a few weeks in and we're just seeing our first storm right now, actually, which is pretty normal. Hurricane season usually starts out slowly in the Atlantic and really gets going in the late summer and early fall.

Emily Kwong
And you said earlier forecasters are predicting a record breaking number of storms. So, like, how many storms are they foreseeing?

Rebecca Hersher
Potentially more than two dozen. The National Hurricane center is predicting between 17 and 25 storms will form in the Atlantic this year, and at least eight of those are expected to be full blown hurricanes as opposed to, you know, weaker tropical storms. At least four of those are expected to be major hurricanes. So major hurricanes, that means category three or above, if you're familiar with the categories. So that means really powerful winds that can uproot trees, destroy mobile homes and damage other buildings.

Emily Kwong
Is this a lot more than average? Like what's the normal number of storms?

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah, it's actually the largest number of storms that the hurricane center has ever predicted. At the beginning of a hurricane season, the average number of storms in a season is only 14, and they're saying.

Emily Kwong
More than two dozen.

Rebecca Hersher
Could be.

Emily Kwong
Okay.

Rebecca Hersher
Could be.

Emily Kwong
So why so many storms? Also, how do they even predict how many storms are going to happen in a whole season?

Rebecca Hersher
Great question. So, yeah, it's statistical forecasting. Right. So they're using math the same way forecasters can tell you that it's going to be a snowier than average winter, probably, or that it's likely to be a rainier than average spring. That's how they're able to do these predictions for a whole season. And the temperatures being so hot is one of the reasons that forecasters are predicting so many storms this year. You know, human caused climate change is driving up temperatures around the world, not just on land, like so many of us, are experiencing firsthand this week. But in the ocean, where the hurricanes form, water temperatures in the Atlantic are abnormally high. And I talked to Gavin Schmidt about this. He's a climate scientist at NASA.

Gavin Schmidt
They've been in record breaking territory for almost the entire last twelve months.

Emily Kwong
Oh, twelve months. So basically for a year.

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah, yeah. And actually, preliminary data that came out since I talked to Gavin showed that it's probably 13 months at this point. So more than a year.

Emily Kwong
That's a lot of months in a row to be breaking records for ocean heat.

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah, yeah. And the temperatures are off the charts. I mean, all this extra heat in the ocean, it is like fuel for hurricanes. It helps them get big and powerful, which is one reason there are so many storms forecast. Right, because disturbances that might have just stayed as minor storms are more likely to grow into full blown tropical systems if the water is really warm when they form. And abnormally hot water and air also makes storms wetter because the warm air can hold more moisture, which then falls as heavy rain when the storm hits land.

Emily Kwong
We've talked before on short wave about how rain, it's actually the most deadly part of a hurricane. It's what happens after it all falls.

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah, yeah, exactly. Flooding from rain is actually responsible for the most hurricane deaths in the US, and it can affect people really, really far from the coast as well.

Emily Kwong
So, Rebecca, why is the ocean itself so hot?

And is that what climate scientists were expecting to happen as the earth heats up from climate change?

Rebecca Hersher
Well, so, yes and no. And this is where we start to get into the sort of mystery. So climate scientists did expect that the oceans would heat up dramatically because the vast majority of the excess heat that's trapped in the atmosphere by fossil fuel pollution is absorbed by the oceans.

Emily Kwong
Right?

Rebecca Hersher
But the ocean temperatures for the last year or so have been even hotter than scientists expected.

Gavin Schmidt
The warming that we've been seeing in the North Atlantic over the last year has made people kind of lift their eyebrows a little bit and go, huh, what's going on there?

Emily Kwong
Oh, so this is a true mystery for them, these warming oceans. What are some of the theories?

Rebecca Hersher
There are a bunch.

Gavin Schmidt
Well, it could be the saharan dust, or it could be the pollutants from marine shipping, it could be the solar cycle. It could just be noise.

Maybe the data isn't right.

Emily Kwong
This is a wide, wide ranging list.

Rebecca Hersher
Yes. Also, that is not the whole list. He kept going. So basically, you can group the theories into some buckets. So either there's something going on with the sun that we don't totally understand.

Emily Kwong
Great.

Rebecca Hersher
Or the amount of dust and air pollution in the air is changing how much heat gets trapped. Or maybe this is a math problem, right, where there's some error in the computer models and the data that feeds them. But there's one other big theory that doesn't fit into any of those buckets, and it's about a volcanic eruption.

Emily Kwong
I thought volcanic eruptions kind of cool the atmosphere, like the ash shoots up into the air, temporarily reflects extra heat from the sun.

Rebecca Hersher
Yes, usually. Also my understanding of volcanic eruptions. This is why this is such an interesting theory. It's about the volcano that erupted underwater near tonga a couple years ago.

Emily Kwong
Oh, yeah, that was big.

Gavin Schmidt
The Hunga Tonga Hunga hapai volcano also put a lot of water vapor into the stratosphere. We've never seen that before, and that went up really high.

And water vapor in the stratosphere is actually an additional greenhouse gas.

Rebecca Hersher
So water vapor in the atmosphere traps heat instead of reflecting it, so it makes warming worse in the short term. And that's the idea behind that theory for why the oceans are so darn hot right now. That's one possibility. Right.

Emily Kwong
Fascinating. Okay.

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah.

Emily Kwong
But we don't know which of these theories, volcanoes, dust data among them, is. Right. Right.

Rebecca Hersher
No, it's a totally open question. Lots of scientists are working on it, and it's likely that it's a mix of multiple reasons. It doesn't have to be one theory.

In the meantime, what we do know is that human caused climate change accounts for most of the warming in the oceans. Like, that part is not up for debate. And we also know that the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes form is extremely warm compared to normal, which is bad news for hurricanes.

Emily Kwong
But is the warm ocean water the only reason for the large number of hurricanes? Because, honestly, it sounds like the ocean has been abnormally hot for more than a year. But last year wasn't some kind of record breaking year for hurricanes, was it?

Rebecca Hersher
No, it wasn't. That's a great point. Last year was an average year for hurricanes, and that's because warm water isn't the only factor in hurricane formation. Wind also matters a lot. Right. Storms are wind windy systems. So last year, there weren't favorable wind conditions. There was a lot of what's called wind shear, which is when the wind speed and direction change really dramatically, which is it can tear apart storms as they're forming.

This year, wind conditions are much more favorable for hurricanes. So this is why I say it's a bit of a perfect storm, right. With the temperature and the wind.

Emily Kwong
Got it. Okay. This is not a good situation, obviously, if you live in a place that gets hurricanes, which, like you said, is just a big swath of the us.

Rebecca Hersher
Yeah. Like everyone from Texas to Maine, including the inland south and Appalachia, some of the most damaging storms in recent years have destroyed buildings and killed people hundreds or even thousands of miles from where they initially made landfall. So this is the number one message that forecasters are trying to hammer home while it's still early in the hurricane season.

Get prepared now. Do not wait until one of these many, many predicted storms is headed your way.

Emily Kwong
This is my favorite part of your annual hurricane update. It's the like, okay, here's what you can do about it. Here's the one thing within your control.

Rebecca Hersher
You don't need to be a sitting duck.

Emily Kwong
No, you don't. So, like, what does being prepared mean? What are some specific things people can do?

Rebecca Hersher
So the first thing is figure out an evacuation plan, right? Like if authorities said you need to evacuate, where would you go? Do you have pets? Make a plan for them. What do you need to protect your home while you're away? You know, what would you pack in a bag? What is your mode of transportation?

Then also make a plan for staying at home because for some types of storms, the local guidance might be to shelter in place, to not leave.

A good hurricane plan is specific to your needs.

Eric Hooks, the deputy administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, put it this way.

Eric Hooks
Do you have medication that requires refrigeration?

Do you have a medical device that requires electricity?

Do you have mobility challenges that make evacuations harder? Right.

Rebecca Hersher
These are specific questions that you should be asking yourself. Basically, make a plan that fits your life. And then also talk to family members and neighbors who might have trouble making a plan on their own.

Emily Kwong
And do it before the hurricane season really starts heating up, so to speak.

Rebecca Hersher
So to speak. Yes, exactly. Now is the time.

Emily Kwong
Rebecca Hersher, thank you for this.

Rebecca Hersher
Thanks so much. You're welcome.

Emily Kwong
Before we head out, a quick shout out to our short wave plus listeners. We appreciate you and we thank you for being a subscriber. Shortwave plus helps support our show. And if you're a regular listener, we'd love for you to join so you can enjoy the show without sponsor interruptions. Find out more at plus dot npr.org shortwave.

Today's episode was produced by Rachel Carlson. It was edited by our showrunner Rebecca Ramirez and fact checked by Rebecca Herfin. The audio engineer was Kwesi Lee Beth Donovan is our senior director and Colin Campbell is our senior vice president of podcasting strategy. I'm Emily Kwong. Thanks for watching for listening to Short Wave, the Science podcast from NPR.

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