Biden's Catastrophic Debate

David Plotz
Hello and welcome to this late political Gabfest special edition, June 28, 2024, the Biden's catastrophic debate edition. I'm David Plotzev, citycast. I'm in Washington, DC. Joining me on maybe like 2 hours of sleep from New York is John Dickerson of CBS's Daily Report. Hello, John.

John Dickerson
Hi.

I'm so, like, I'm just lack of sleep and the, and the swirl. And also, I'm looking at myself in the camera here, and I feel like I'm looking at another, you're sort of Biden. Like, even, John, maybe you should turn off the, maybe you should run for president. I mean, you look fine, but I. That other voice, of course, is Emily Bazelon of the New York Times Magazine, New York Times Magazine, and Yale University Law School from New Haven.

David Plotz
Hello, Emily. Hi. This is a special post debate episode, a weekend at Bernie's episode, an autopsy of a corpse. Let's talk about what was. Obviously, everyone who's listening has probably already heard four other podcasts talking about this or six other pundits talking about it and certainly had the evidence of their own eyes.

An absolutely disastrous night for Joe Biden. Emily, you started, you were saying, oh, maybe it wasn't so bad. Maybe there's a slight pitch version of this. It wasn't so bad. It was so bad, right?

Emily Bazelon
Well, yeah, I mean, I do want to wait to see what the poll results are. Right. So there's the performance and then there's the effect of the performance. And the other thing is, like, Trump aggressively lied his, the way through the evening. Now, he had energy.

So in theatrical terms, he certainly outperformed Biden. But, you know, if you are actually going to pay attention to the substance of the answers as opposed to the issues with the delivery, which, of course, we're going to talk about, I don't think Trump, like, did some great job that would bring new voters running to him. I think if you pay attention to the substance of, let's say, if we looked at it on tech as a text debate and not anything else, I think you come to a different conclusion than had you than if you're just talking about what you could see visually. But I don't think the conclusion you draw you come to is so great for the incumbent, either. What you would see from the text is also what you saw in the performance, which is that Donald Trump issued forth a river of lies and misrepresentations about things of serious import.

John Dickerson
January 6, Charlottesville, the 2020 election, in keeping with his rewriting of reality and that's dangerous because it trains a party and a person to basically do whatever you want and you just rewrite reality after it's over. And that's a license to, that's a license to danger. But I think if you read and buy, read Biden's answers on issues like abortion, which he knew was coming and is right, supposedly in his wheelhouse and is so important to his election, it's indecipherable what he was talking about. It was a shocking, I mean, mostly. He seemed to be talking about conservative talking points about the murder of immigrant murder, murder by immigrant.

David Plotz
I mean, literally have no idea what he was talking about. Well, I think what he was trying to do was talk about women being raped and how they need a right to an abortion. But he didn't say the second women. Being raped by their husbands and brothers and sisters. I mean, sisters.

Yeah, and sisters. Yeah. It was very bad. And also, I think he just doesn't want to say the word abortion still, which is not great just in itself. Right.

But Jon, of course, and of course, I mean, you weren't saying this, but I just want to note, of course, no one is going to look at this debate as text. The point of this debate was to answer the question, which is, a, is Joe Biden able to be a standard bearer for his ideas and for a democratic party and project energy and authority and vigor? And B, is he able to articulate a set of ideas that are persuasive for people? He definitely didn't articulate a set of ideas for people. That's, as you say, that's the text.

But the more important piece was this age issue was the most salient thing that he had to prove himself on, and he failed in every possible way you could fail it. That was the worst debate performance I've ever seen by anyone under any circumstance. And I've seen high school debate. John Fetterman had a really hard time. You could imagine saying, oh, somebody had bad debate performance.

John Dickerson
That's all about optics. Optics are part of the job, not the most important part of the job. There are lots of other parts of the presidency that a debate can't uncover. But when a debate performance is so bad that it leads people to conclude, not without reason, that maybe when you're alone doing all the other stuff of the presidency, you may not be your sharpest. That's very bad.

And that seems that happened. Secondly, Biden says to answers about his age, watch me. That's his response. Always watch me. Okay.

They did for 90 minutes. People are drawing conclusions. Second of all, all the run up to debate was he was underestimated before his 2020 convention and he hit it out of the park. He was underestimated before he went and debated with Paul Ryan, and he did great. He was underestimated before the State of the union, and he did great.

So the framing for the night given by his supporters in his campaign was he's always underestimated and he's going to do wonderful. So by the strategy and framing of their own campaign and the fact that they embraced this early date because they wanted to show that it was a choice, not a referendum, they asked for this moment to be evaluated in the way that it's being evaluated now. They're stuck with a very bad result, and we'll talk about the consequences, obviously. Did you guys think that that format really benefited Trump? It was a river of lies, a torrent of lies, all of that.

David Plotz
And yet, because he had to be constrained to two minutes, because he wasn't allowed to talk over Biden, because he just wasn't holding forth, Fidel Castro style, for 6 hours at a podium, it actually felt like a reined in version of Trump, much more beneficial to him, I think, probably for this general election than a version where he was out of control and constantly showing his silverback assholeness. Okay. But I mean, he did do a river of lies, and it was on all the topics John mentioned and others. Right. I mean, you know, to say that, like, immigrants are breaking Social Security, this is not true, and it's just so difficult.

Emily Bazelon
Yes, I know you agree, but it. I just, it. If you bring energy, but the energy you're bringing. I actually did think that his usual abrasiveness came across pretty strongly. At the same time, it just wasn't the main thing that was grabbing one's attention.

Right. The world does not lack for fact checks of Donald Trump. So the idea that if Trump had been fact checked, it would, like, change the race, I don't think is true. What I did come to think after sort of living with that hot take for a minute was if the balance of the performance or the event were not just all kind of. If basically there was more time spent on Trump's lies, that would have taken away time from Biden looking as bad as he did.

John Dickerson
I mean, there were things that were illuminated by this debate. And one of the points of a debate is to illuminate the fact that they are illuminated on different timelines. Doesn't, I don't think, Rob, the benefit of that illumination. So Biden's competence was illuminated. And then also the lies that Trump told.

I wonder if he would have told them with such breezy ness if he'd been fact checked. It may just be that the downside of saying those things will come later and just doesn't come in the moment. I mean, the thing is that Trump was Trump. There was nothing surprising about his performance. He was, like, a tiny bit restrained, maybe.

Emily Bazelon
Mostly, he was just like the same old Trump we always see. And Biden was different. I actually feel like the structural format made a difference in what Trump was. I think Trump, in a two minute dose where he can't get that long Runway, is a very different character, and he can't throw as many crazy lies. He can't digress in the way that he digresses in these lunatic ways in that short a period.

David Plotz
And I think that makes a huge substantive difference. It doesn't change the fact that everything he's saying is a lie. I agree. But I would be shocked if people who looked at that debate, if nine out of ten of them who were actually independent, didn't come away thinking, well, this guy seems like he's with it, he's okay, he's got some confidence, he projects strength. That seems fine.

John Dickerson
Now, the question is whether the illumination that you're looking for there could ever be illuminated in a debate. In other words, because debates don't have open ended answers, I think isn't the question really whether more rigorous fact checking would have changed the dynamic in the debate? And also, we don't have an example of what a candidate on the other side who was quick and nimble could do. I mean, part of Trump's strategy is flood the zone with lies. So for the opponent to fact check him, Biden's like, which of the ten things do I pick up on here?

And do I waste all of my energy fact checking him and offering no vision for the country? A person who was more adept would have said he lied in these two different ways. But there is a bigger lie at the heart of this, which is x. And then make the case like you could imagine the role. Robbing the challenger of the fact checking role actually robs the challenger of a tool they could have used.

We don't know that that's a counterfactual. Because. Because Joe Biden didn't. Couldn't do it. Start your summer road trip at Midas and get up to $30 off your next repair service, plus get a free closer look vehicle check to make sure your road trip ready.

D
If you need brake service, an alignment check or tune up. Hit up Midas for up to $30 off. For more details, request your appointment@midas.com. dot new from the embedded podcast, what happens when three republican women challenge their own party? Maybe we need to speak out a little bit bolder.

Emily Bazelon
Maybe we need to do something to get people's attention. They have a front row seat to democracy now. You do, too. Listen to super majority from NPR's embedded and Wpln.

E
Hey, everybody. Jon Stewart here. I am here to tell you about my new podcast, the weekly show. Coming out every Thursday. We're gonna be talking about the election earnings calls.

What are they talking about on these earnings calls? We're gonna be talking about ingredient to bread ratio on sandwiches. I know you have a lot of options as far as podcasts go, but how many of them come out on Thursday? Listen to the weekly show with Jon Stewart. Wherever you get your podcast.

David Plotz
Let'S turn, if you guys don't mind, to all the talk and all the media that I, if you looked at the New York Times, for example, today, the top four op eds were basically, Biden must withdraw. Biden should withdraw. Biden can't go on like this. Matt Iglesias, who's a big Biden backer, and substantively, it was like, Biden's got to go. What would be the mechanism by which Biden would go?

He would have to withdraw himself and he would have to make a decision. Is that right, John, that he will not accept the nomination, and then the nomination gets decided by votes of those delegates who are at the convention. Is that right? Right, right. Well, I'm not 1000% sure exactly on how this happens, but my rough understanding at the moment is it has to happen with Biden's assent because the delegates are pledged to him also, just as a kind of craziness matter, you can't wrestle the nomination out of his hands.

John Dickerson
I think that is impossible. Now the question then becomes, what do those delegates that are pledged to him, at what level are they bound? I think it matters by state, but I'm not positive about that. I think they are bound to do kind of, there's some fuzzy language about they are bound to do what their conscience dictates with their support for the nominee, which is to say, if Biden said, okay, I'm not the top of the ticket, but Kamala Harris is, and you must go support Kamala Harris. The level of obligation there is, I'm not certain what that is.

The question is, leaving aside the question of how obligated they would be and whether they would be obligated on the first ballot and not the second and so forth. The question is whether he could say such a thing and people would revolt and say, wait a minute, you can't tell us what to do. Or in the alternative, if he did not hand his delegates or whatever the mechanism is to the vice president, would there be a revolt from people in the party saying, wait a minute, she's the vice president. Of course, she's the one who should be the party nominee. And then all of this would be filtered through all of the various interest groups and identity groups wanting a say and feeling they had a right to have a say.

So there are the rules and then there's the sort of unwritten rules. So, Emily, do you think, I mean, a, do you think if Biden should withdraw as a candidate, I want to. Wait to see the polls. I just want to see what the impact is. I mean, I totally understand why the day after commentary is what it is, but I just want to see how Americans are taking this in, though, of course, the day after commentary and all the clips that are going to play are going to affect everybody.

Emily Bazelon
But I feel like we'll know more in a few days. And then I think the problem is that if this is a path, if Biden steps aside, it's going to be messy. There's no way there's going to be some neatly orchestrated succession. I just can't imagine it. Because Kamala Harris is the natural successor.

It's going to be hard to explain why he doesn't do anything other than throw his support behind her. If he does throw his support behind her, there are going to be a lot of doubters about whether she's the best candidate. Right. I am sure it would be messy. And I also would not want Kamala Harris necessarily to end up as the candidate at the end of it.

David Plotz
There are lots of other people, including governors of states, that are up for grabs, Gretchen Widmer, Josh Shapiro, notably in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both popular democratic governors in those states. On the other hand, I think there's a lot to be said for any kind of fresh face at this time and that once they got past the mishegas of the convention, it would end at the convention. The convention has to produce a nominee. It would produce a nominee. So the day after the convention they have a fresh face who is not Biden running against a very unpopular Republican and somebody who presumably also the country.

It's gonna be a good situation in some ways for that candidate. Unless it's Harris, because the country's not gonna have a lot of time to learn about them and to be disillusioned. With them or to blame them for inflation. It's not fault, right? It's just like a chance.

It's sort of somebody who's got a fresh face will bring some energy. They will be fun, and it'd just be like a two minute, a two month window, which they'll be beaten up in it, but they will seem different and exciting and definitely not Trump and definitely not Biden. And I think that's what people are clamoring for in the middle. And I think with the right candidate, this is a much better scenario for the Democrats than Harris. And certainly, I think Biden, to me, that election was lost.

If Biden is the candidate last night, I don't see any path forward where Biden wins the election based on last night. And I also feel like, and, John, I want you to confirm or deny this. I feel like one of Biden's really interesting characteristics is that he's somebody who has given his life to service and has, at almost every moment, has done, like, when pushed, really done the right thing, really found a way to do the right thing. And, like, he's been a team player in this profound way. And I know it's hard to give up the greatest office in the world because everyone's telling you you're a doddering old fool.

But I do think that if he comes to the conclusion, persuaded, presumably by Jill Biden and some set of close advisors, that, man, this isn't the right role for me, and our best chance is somebody else. I think he could do that with dignity, and I think he's a rare person who could willingly do that. I totally agree. And he originally sold himself as the bridge building president. Well, I don't know if you guys do this when you write, but one of my processes is you take what you know is the best stuff and you just kind of lump it on the table, and then you decide, how do I draw the pathways between these things that I know are true and that are valuable, and how do I just make this into a coherent whole?

John Dickerson
So when you were talking, David, it's sort of, that's one thing on the table, which is Biden has a reservoir of goodwill within the party and has in his bones this kind of larger sense of service and self. That's a, that's one part of your narrative. The other part is there is still this great antipathy in the party for Donald Trump, they really don't want him to be president. And so you put that on the table. And the reason, the way this all connects is that anger about Donald Trump and the fear of having him being president is what you would hope when you write your narrative will convince people to, whatever they do and participate in to get to a nominee at the convention, then they all really do need to come together.

That kind of helps you get from one place to the other. I think going back to that point about people's reservoir, good feeling for Joe Biden and his ability to tap into that and draw on that, is you would then turn your convention into a celebration of what he has done, which can be done more cleanly, perhaps, when it's not tied to these questions of whether he has four more years left in him. So it allows them to enjoy a moment of celebration and also maybe an even extra celebration because they have this feeling about him and he's, gosh, it's a little embarrassing to have to step down. So let's really give it up for Joe, which creates a sense of enthusiasm and wonder which can propel you forward. I'm just trying to think of the component parts of this narrative that would allow you to get over the really big stinky thing on the table, which is chaos and recriminations.

Another thing I'd put on the table is we live in a very fast political environment, and while it would be a spectacle in Chicago, it passes through the bloodstream. And you also have lots of, you know, this is the cult, this is the party of Hollywood and creative people who would know how to potentially write around that problem, which is, yeah, there's going to be a fight, but let's have it be a fight for the things we believe and show America that actually we have our eye on the ball, which is the problems that face people. And, you know, use some of our artistry to make this an advertisement as much as a public fight. I mean, when you think of it as a movie, it's a great plot twist, actually. It would change the subject.

Emily Bazelon
Like, you can see the writers in the room getting excited about that part of it. And I mean, is this also maybe part of your lump of material, John, that there's what it takes to have the job of the president and for all the evidence we can see, Biden can do that, and it has done that well. And then there's the job of running for president. And that's the part that he does not seem capable of. Post that to v performance.

I mean, you can literally blame his voice. Like, just the thin, Reedy, raspy, almost inaudible part. Like, that part was so hard. But that puts it in totally in the realm of performance. And I don't think, I think, like his answer on abortion, if you read the text, it makes no sense.

John Dickerson
And that's what moves this from the purely performative to something that makes a larger claim on his fitness. And that's why there's a real, that's, I think, why this is a different level of problem than we might otherwise have if we were just doing theater review. But one thing I'd also throw on the table is that some person I'm now, you know, this is all sort of fantasizing in the. How would Democrats get themselves out of this problem? A person with some skill could say in the Republican Party, when Donald Trump gets blamed for inciting the first attack on the Capitol since 1814, there are very few people in his party who will say, you know what?

Actually trying to subvert a free and fair election is not a good thing, no matter what our party says, that they all rallied around somebody who they once blamed for an insurrection. We, on the other hand, have a different view. We think the problems of the american people that need addressing are above any one person. And we have a set of ideas for how to address those things. And we are a healthy party that can adapt and try to solve those problems, because the problems are what animate us more than anything else.

Not a single person. Jon, Emily. Emily was of the I want to wait and see the polls. Boo, hiss school of this. What's your guess about how this debate could play out?

David Plotz
Do you think this is something that if it's going to happen, it's going to happen ASAP, or do you think it is several weeks of anxiety? And one of the problems in being a fast political environment is that things move fast. And so maybe in several weeks, people are like, oh, it's okay, Biden will be fine. I don't know. Let me just think out loud.

John Dickerson
The problem with saying it'll be fine in a couple of weeks and the polls don't show us anything, is that this is a problem waiting in the closet, always ready to come out, that basically that the concern about the debate performance is not that it was one bad night, but that it was closer to Biden's best night than what would be a truly awful night. That essentially he has embedded in, that he's 81 years old and he's showing his age and that there are more opportunities to do that and each possible next opportunity to do that sinks the problem further and further and it becomes later and later. So this is a problem that doesn't go away and a problem that isn't absolved. If he says he had a great record, it is possible for two things to be true. You can argue that he has a great record and that he's shouldn't have four more years like those two things can be.

So there's a reason that somebody could say, look, this isn't going to go away because, by the way, there are real challenges. It's a close race. He's got bad numbers on the economy. The economy is not ever going to get good enough for people to suddenly say, oh, things are okay. But the democratic party, you know, has a history of kind of hand wringing.

It's possible for people to say, oh, this is just more of the same hand wringing, although, gosh, the voices seem kind of loud at this point. So I really don't know, David. I mean, they, they, if they got, if they're going to move, they have to move fast because they got a convention coming up and this messiness needs to happen and get out of the way so that they can go up, go back to the business of the campaign. Won't the polls take a few days, not weeks? I don't know.

I mean, it depends because you could, so there are the snap polls, which are bad for Biden. Then there are the polls coming out kind of where you might get a more sort of true read. But then if you're in the camp of Keith Biden, you really want to know the polls that come out three weeks from now which show actually, remember all that kerfuffle didn't matter. I mean, like, remember when he gave state union, everybody's like, oh, see, it was great and his numbers have improved. And, you know, it really does matter when you have a good performance, which, by the way, they're all not saying now I, but then all that went away.

So in order to make the case that it goes away, you got to wait kind of like three weeks. And also, even if you wait, I mean, I suppose if we see there's a huge surge of voters to Biden post this debate for, that would be amazing and then you'd want to continue it. But I think, I bet we can all agree the best case scenario is the polls don't collapse for him or don't, don't sink significantly for him and a status quo situation is still a losing election at this point. The status quo election is, they certainly have a, you know, by most accounts, a less than 50% chance to win. So it's not just that he just has to prove that he didn't lose 5% of voters last night.

David Plotz
It's that he's got to show that, oh, there's going to be an affirmative campaign. And I think your point, I mean, what are the reasons why they scheduled this debate in June? I mean, obviously want to show he was, they want to get this narrative, it's, it's Trump against Biden out on the table so that it would be the choice. But I also like, he's younger in June than he's going to be in November. This is only, this is a one way ratchet, friends.

John Dickerson
Right? Like, we've all watched this aging, I mean, we watch it in ourselves and we've watched it in our parents. Like, this aging process is inexorable. And there's no reason to think that Biden becomes a better candidate two months from now than he is today. Right.

He's not going to be, yes. He's not going to, he's not going to be a younger candidate. This. And, yeah, it's a, it's quite, it's quite a moment. And also, I think that you will have people start to make the case that all these horrible things you may believe about Donald Trump, you are now the impediment to keeping those things from happening.

You, Joe Biden, are the impediment, you, you people protecting Joe Biden are the impediment of, like, in other words, it's not me who needs to get wise about how bad Donald Trump is. It's you that needs to recognize how bad Donald Trump is and that you are the impediment from keeping him out of office. Right. The stakes are too high. The risks are too great.

So now the question is who delivers that and how it all, how it allhow it all happens? I assume it's his wife. No. You guys think it's somebody else. I have no idea.

Emily Bazelon
But I also think that if he watches parts of it, it's not going to be hard for him to see what happened. I mean, just think of all the ways in which this is a problem. Like one of the responses to the doctored clips of Biden that have been out there from the White House has been that these are doctored clips, that these are fake and they're misrepresenting reality. Well, now you're in a tug of war with people who watched for 90 minutes and drew a conclusion or other people who are in the elite circles or in the media circles who will say, yeah, the doctored thing, maybe in this instance or not. But the underlying truth of these clips is there because we saw it for 90 minutes in the debate.

John Dickerson
I mean, this has a, you know, one of the things that does happen in debates, even though we know that they don't have a big effect on polls, is they become the quick shorthand for whole huge concepts, and they become kind of locke in ideas that might have been up for grabs.

David Plotz
That's our special show for today. We'll be back next Thursday with a regular episode on July 4, unless something astonishing happens in between now and July 4, in which case we'll drop another special episode. The Gabfest is produced by Shayna Roth. Our researcher is Julie Hugin. Our theme music is by they might be giants.

Ben Richmond is senior director for podcast operations. Alicia Montgomery is the VP of audio for slate. For Emily Bazelon and sleepless, sleepy John Dickerson. We can call him sleepy John Dickerson now. I'm David Plotz.

Thanks for listening. Talk to you next week.

Biden's Catastrophic Debate

Primary Topic

Episode Summary

Main Takeaways

Episode Chapters

1: Opening Remarks

2: Debate Analysis

3: Political Consequences

4: Closing Thoughts

Actionable Advice

About This Episode

People

Content Warnings:

Transcript