Will a Ceasefire Deal Stop the Rafah Incursion?

This episode discusses the current situation in Rafah and explores the potential impact of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement on the ongoing conflict.

1. Rafah remains a volatile zone, with ongoing military actions and severe civilian casualties.
2. A proposed ceasefire deal includes a phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, which could pause the fighting.
3. The agreement could lead to a more extended period of calm, possibly lasting up to a year, significantly altering the region's dynamics.
4. US involvement is crucial, with Antony Blinken playing a key role in facilitating discussions and applying pressure on various parties.
5. The episode highlights the intersection of military strategy and diplomacy, with Rafah potentially being used as a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical negotiations.

1: Introduction

Host David Rind sets the scene in Rafah, affected by recent airstrikes, illustrating the human toll and the urgency for a ceasefire. David Rind: "Imagine if ground forces move in. That military operation is the backdrop for negotiations this week over a hostage release and ceasefire deal."

2: Negotiation Details

Becky Anderson discusses the latest developments in ceasefire negotiations, highlighting the complexities and the involvement of multiple stakeholders. Becky Anderson: "There is some talk that we could be close to an agreement with both sides, which would be a major step towards ending this war."

3: Geopolitical Implications

The potential impacts of a ceasefire on regional politics are explored, including the strategic relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Becky Anderson: "This is a period of time for the release of all the remaining civilian hostages, serving soldiers, and the bodies of hostages."

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Hamas is considering a new framework for a hostage release and ceasefire proposal put forward by Egypt. It comes amid fears that Israel will launch a ground offensive into Rafah whether or not a deal is reached. In this episode, CNN's Becky Anderson tells us about the parameters and examines a longshot push to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

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David Rind, Becky Anderson, Antony Blinken, Benjamin Netanyahu

Content Warnings:

None

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JD Power ranks sleep number one in customer satisfaction with mattresses purchased in store and now save 40% on Sleep number limited edition smart beds for a limited time for JD Power 2023 award information, visit jdpower.com awards only at sleep number stores or sleep number. The southern Gaza city of Rafa is. Supposed to be a safe zone, but that is not saying much, if anything at all.

David Rind

Case in point, hospital officials say an airstrike killed at least 22 people there early Monday morning. All were members of the same family.

Videos showed a group of people overcome. With emotion, caressing lifeless bodies. A woman shouts, my whole family has perished.

David Rind

A man holds the body of a one year old baby up to the camera. This is who they are targeting, he says. This is the safe Rafa they talk about.

The IDF says it struck targets in an area terrorists were operating in. CNN cant verify that, but again, this is the state of Rafa right now. Imagine if ground forces move in. That military operation is the backdrop for negotiations this week over a hostage release and ceasefire deal.

And some are asking, is this the last chance to stop it? They framed it the following way. Is Rafa a strategic target or is it a bargaining chip? From CNN, this is tug of war. I'm David Rind.

Becky Anderson is a CNN international anchor and the host of Connect the world. She's an Abu Dhabi Becky, as we sit here on Tuesday, what is the. Latest deal on the table? Well, after months of deadlock, and I've been covering this for months, as you know, there is some talk that we could be close to an agreement with both sides, which would be a major step towards ending this war. So what have we got?

Becky Anderson

We've got Hamas considering what is a framework proposal that, as I understand it, Israel helped craft but has not fully agreed to, that calls for a pause in the fighting for something like to six weeks and the release of up to 33 hostages in exchange for palestinian prisoners. That's phase one. Phase two is where I would suggest that we've seen something new, something new from Israel and something that, at least in principle, Hamas may be prepared to really consider. And this is a call for restoring sustainable calm. Now, I sort of do that in inverted commas, because this is, this is a period of time for the release of all the remaining civilian hostages, serving soldiers and the bodies of hostages.

This is important, this wording, the restoration or restoring of sustainable calm. That is language as I understand it, according to sources that I've spoken to who are familiar with this, that the US first proposed back in February, that was accepted by the israeli technical team in Doha. When it was taken back to Tel Aviv, it was knocked back by the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Because effectively, this is, this is a call for a semi permanent ceasefire in all but name. I was going to say it sounds a lot like a ceasefire.

David Rind

A period of sustained calm. A period of sustained calm. Absolutely. And this is something that Hamas has been calling for. They have been, their red lines have been the return of Palestinians to the north, the free movement of Palestinians back to the north of Gaza, and a permanent ceasefire.

Becky Anderson

Now, call it what you will, a longer term sustained period of calm or ceasefire. We are at the moment, as I understand it, talking about something like a year. So this is a year. Wow. Yeah.

And that is the reason why the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has described this proposal as extraordinarily generous on the part of the Israelis. And in this moment, the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas. They have to decide, and they have to decide quickly. He said this in Riyadh on Monday. And I was there.

We were both at the World Economic Forum special meeting in Riyadh. I'm hopeful that they will make the right decision and we can have a fundamental change in the, in the dynamic. So as things stand, as you and I speak, that proposal is being negotiated between a team from Hamas, Qatar and Egypt in Cairo. No evidence yet that the Israelis are joining there, has been taught that they will join if they see sufficient movement. But perhaps let's move on to what happened in the last couple of hours here Tuesday as we speak, because we have been told by an israeli source that the only chance to stop an offensive in Rafa, which is hanging over all of these negotiations at present.

Right. The only chance of stopping that israeli military offensive in Rafa is a deal that, though, is not official policy.

Becky Anderson

And officially, Benjamin Netanyahu has today told hostage families, quote, Israel will enter Rafa with or without a deal.

And the big question here is, you know, as you collapse these two issues, is Rafa. And it was a commentator who framed this, an israeli commentator who framed this today from Haretz, which I thought was interesting. That's a more left wing sort of media outlet in Israel. They framed it the following way. Is Rafa a strategic target or is it a bargaining chip?

And that's a really big question at this point. Like we've heard from Netanyahu, that the military needs to go into Rafa to root out Hamas finally. But there's a thought that it could be just kind of a way to get this deal over the line. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I think that's absolutely right.

But if we sort of, you know, just step back for a moment and consider where we are at seven months into this, Benjamin Netanyahu has been absolutely insistent from the outset of the offensive in Gaza that it has two clear goals, the complete dismantling of Hamas and the return of the hostages, the hostage families. I think there's a sense that the return of the hostages is a sort of, you know, is a secondary goal here under an enormous amount of pressure from the United States who have said, and again, Anthony Blinken reiterated this in Riyadh on Monday. The states have said you will not get Washington's blessing until you come up with a clear plan to protect civilians should you go into Rafa. And Antony Blinken said in Riyadh that to date they have not seen that plan. Is it that pressure then, that has kind of allowed Israel to back off some of these key demands, like the movement from Palestinians to the north, this period of sustained calm?

Because that, like you said, feels new and a much bigger step than we've seen in recent weeks. It does, doesn't it? Again, there's been some sort of movement of people, but people are moving back to where they came from and finding there's nothing to go back to. So, you know, people are sort of returning to Rafa as a result of that. And therein lies this, you know, this awful situation that, you know, frankly, it seems nobody but those running the Israel operation want to see, which is a military offensive on Rafa, which could see upwards of a million people subject to an assault, the likes of which we have no idea what the impact will be.

Becky Anderson

The other really important stuff that I sort of gleaned while I was in Riyadh this week was Antony Blinken was there to talk to regional stakeholders, arab foreign ministers, about what happens next.

More with Becky in just a bit.

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Welcome back to tug of war and my conversation with CNN's Becky Anderson. Well, let's talk a little bit about what happens next, because I've been hearing a lot in the past few weeks about this push for normalization between Saudi Arabia, one of the major players in the region, and Israel. So can you explain, like, the backstory here? So through the Biden administration's lens, I will quote to you what Antony Blinken said in Riyadh, the single biggest rebuke to Hamas, and he said Iran, would be for Israel to have normalised relations with the region. Both Iran and Hamas have no interest in a two state solution.

Becky Anderson

Why did he talk about the two state solution? Well, Saudi Arabia, who has said they are close to normalizing relations with Israel. Antony Blinken has said we are getting closer to normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But standing in the way of that, as far as the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is concerned, is what they describe as an irreversible path to a two state solution, an irreversible path to a palestinian horizon. And at this stage, we have heard no appetite from Benjamin Netanyahu to change his position on a two state solution.

So that would seem to make this kind of a dead issue. Right? Even if Saudi Arabia and the US. Really do want this to happen. But it's, if, you know, we were talking about, you know, whether or not Rafa is a bargaining chip at this point, it certainly is a huge bargaining chip for a prime minister who has set his heart and his political legacy on normalizing relations with arab states.

Almost three decades since Israel last signed a peace deal with an arab neighbor. Today it signed diplomatic agreements with two. These agreements will serve as the foundation for a comprehensive peace across the entire region. The Abraham Accords back in 2020, normalized relations with Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco and Sudan, but very specifically the Bahrain and the UAE. And I've heard talk around this region that should the kingdom of Saudi Arabia normalize relations, that will open the door to other countries.

Becky Anderson

To do. It'd be like a domino effect. It would be a domino effect. It is without question, a historic turning point for the political landscape of the Middle east, one that will see the establishment of normalized ties for Israel with more of the arab world, where it has long been seen as an enemy. Ties that will now include embassies, direct travel, security partnerships and increased business relations.

Which everybody, you know, those who support, at least in principle, normalised relations will say is, you know, a terrifically good idea for the region. The region needs de escalation, it needs collaboration, it needs investment. You've seen this huge push for more regional integration, both in the kingdom and in the UAE, for example, these economic visions that are being absolutely executed on as we speak will be jeopardized should this conflict spill over and should this region continue to be in this cycle of instability. And privately, behind the scenes, you hear a lot of talk that this could be a really positive move around the region. Is it going to go down well with the arab street, as it is known?

Is it going to go down well in Saudi with many who support the palestinian cause? You know, is it going to go down well around this region? Probably not. But in principle, these are long term strategic decisions that these countries are taking, you know, which they see through the lens of their economic interests as well as their foreign policy. So there are some very big decisions to be made at present.

The first is finding a solution to what is going on in Gaza. You know, and at the heart of that is a ceasefire, the release of the hostages and in exchange for palestinian prisons, a solution, an agreement from both sides on that at this stage could unlock this further chain of events, which, as we suggested at the beginning of this, could be a major step towards not just ending this conflict, but a palestinian horizon going forward and wider around this region, a more integrated and a more peaceful and secure Middle east. Yeah, many steps, like you say. And again with the two state solution. We've heard even just today, former President Trump kind of casting doubt on the possibility of that from the US in.

So what happens in November will have a say in that as well. Absolutely. Becky, good to chat with you. It's always good to chat with you. Thank you so much.

Tug of War is a production of CNN audio this episode was produced by Paulo Ortiz and me, David Ryan. Our senior producer is Hailey Thomas, Dane. Dzula is our technical director, and Steve Lactai is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Lainey Steinhardt, Jamis Andres, Nicole Pessaroo and Lisa Namurow. Special thanks to Caroline Patterson, Flora Charner, Alireza, Haji Hosseini, Xena Safi and Katie Hinman.

We'll be back on Friday. I'll talk to you then.

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