Primary Topic
This episode focuses on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s decision to suspend his presidential campaign and endorse Donald Trump.
Episode Summary
Main Takeaways
- RFK Jr. suspends his campaign: He has chosen to exit the race in a way that supports Donald Trump, particularly in battleground states.
- Impact on the election: Kennedy's exit is likely to have a small but potentially crucial impact on the election, favoring Trump.
- Internal family conflict: Kennedy's decision has caused a rift within his family, highlighting deep disagreements over political values and strategies.
- Voter base and disenfranchisement: Kennedy’s voter base primarily consists of those disenchanted with both major parties, and his exit may lead to lower voter turnout among this group.
- Endorsement reasoning: Kennedy aligns with Trump on key issues despite previous criticisms, suggesting a strategic rather than ideological partnership.
Episode Chapters
1. Introduction
The hosts introduce the episode's major breaking news: RFK Jr.'s campaign suspension and endorsement of Donald Trump. They set the stage for an in-depth analysis.
- Sarah McCammon: "Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast."
2. The Announcement
Discussion on Kennedy's decision to suspend his campaign, his reasons, and the immediate effects on the election landscape.
- Stephen Fowler: "I've made the heart-wrenching decision to suspend my campaign and to support President Trump."
3. Implications and Analysis
Insight into the political and electoral implications of Kennedy’s decision, including potential shifts in voter bases.
- Domenico Montanaro: "Clearly it looks like it would help Donald Trump very slightly."
4. Reactions and Consequences
Covers the reactions from the Democratic Party, Kennedy's family, and implications for third-party politics in the U.S.
- Sarah McCammon: "Members of his family put out a statement today saying..."
5. Wrap-up and Conclusion
Summarizes the discussion and implications of Kennedy's decision on the future political landscape.
- Sarah McCammon: "All right, we're going to leave it there for today."
Actionable Advice
- Understand Electoral Influence: Educate yourself on how third-party candidates can influence election outcomes.
- Stay Informed: Follow updates from reliable sources to understand shifts in the political landscape.
- Engage in Political Discourse: Participate in discussions to better understand differing political views and strategies.
- Vote Strategically: Consider the broader impact of your vote, especially in battleground states.
- Promote Political Engagement: Encourage others to stay informed and participate in the electoral process, regardless of their political alignment.
About This Episode
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., whose conspiracy-minded presidential campaign failed to gain traction with the American public, suspended his campaign Friday and endorse Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. That could be a boon for Democrats who have centered their message on what they see as Trump's fringe beliefs.
This episode: national political correspondent Sarah McCammon, political reporter Stephen Fowler, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
The podcast is produced by Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.
People
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden
Content Warnings:
None
Transcript
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Sarah McCammon
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the campaign.
Stephen Fowler
I'm Stephen Fowler. I also cover the campaign.
Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
Sarah McCammon
And it's 336 eastern time on Friday, August 23. And we have some breaking news from the campaign trail. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Junior is suspending his campaign.
He said he's seeking to remove his name from ballots in battleground states. Here he is in a speech this afternoon in Arizona.
Stephen Fowler
I've made the heart wrenching decision to suspend my campaign and to support President Trump.
Sarah McCammon
Stephen, I want to start with you. You've been following RFK junior s candidacy.
His speech was really a diatribe against many things, including conventional politics, the media, the Democratic Party. And, you know, interestingly, he says he's not fully leaving the race. So where exactly do things stand?
Stephen Fowler
He says, if you live in a blue state, you can vote for me. If you live in a red state, you can vote for me. But I'm going to try to take my name off of the ballot in the, he said about ten states where his presence and people voting for him could be enough to throw that state from one candidate to the other. In this case, he does not want to harm Donald Trump and he is telling his supporters to vote for Trump in those states.
Sarah McCammon
Okay. And he had failed to find significant momentum in this race aside from not harming Trump. What else did he say about his decision to exit the race to the extent that he has?
Stephen Fowler
Well, he blamed the media, he blamed the democratic party. He blamed basically everybody but himself for how he has chosen to exit the race, sort of. When RFK first joined as an independent candidate, there was a lot of displeasure with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. There were people on the left unhappy with Biden that were supporting RFK. There were people on the right unhappy with Trump that were supporting RFK. But over the course of his campaign, he really only sought to reach out to people that either weren't very big on voting to begin with because they didn't feel like they had a voice with two parties or people that had this conspiratorial view about America, about the government about vaccines. And so instead of the reach across the aisle, grab everybody independent tour de force, he really just had a very, very small base that he appealed to. And over time, that's what we saw in the polls.
Sarah McCammon
So, Domenico, the big question is, what difference does this make, if any? As best as we can tell, you've been looking at polls, it looked like RFK junior was attracting voters away from both major party candidates about the same, maybe a little bit more from Trump than from Harris.
Do we have any clear indication of where these voters will go next and how much his endorsement of Trump might matter?
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, you know, clearly it looks like it would help Donald Trump very slightly. When I looked at the polls based on DDHQ in the hills polling averages in each of the seven battleground states, it was about a point or two, on average that Trump wound up picking up with RFK out of the race.
The only place where that wasn't the case was in North Carolina. That could be because younger voters matter so much in North Carolina and so many of them were a big part of RFK juniors base of people he was attracting, that maybe with him out of the race, they go back to Harris. But it also could just be a polling asterisk and we're not sure. It's a very small number, but still could be significant within this race.
Clearly seems to be would help Trump a little bit, which is why, obviously, Trump is scratching around, sort of looking for almost anything to be able to help him gain a few points, because he's lost a few points, clearly, to Kamala Harris, who now has about a three point lead on average in national poll polls, including ours. And, you know, when Joe Biden was in the race, he was losing far more non white voters and younger voters to RFK junior when third party choices were introduced, as compared to Harris, who seemed to hold on to more of those younger voters and black voters in particular.
Sarah McCammon
So he says he's backing Trump now. This is a candidate he once called unhinged. And Trump has criticized him, calling RFK junior fake.
How is he explaining this decision?
Stephen Fowler
One reason is politics. I mean, RFK thinks that he is more aligned with Trump and Trump's policies. Trump has also indicated that he could have a cabinet position for RFK to deal with things like healthcare, that are shared interest in projects. But he said in his press conference, there are three great causes drove me to enter this race in the first place. And these are the principal causes that persuaded me to leave the Democratic Party, run as an independent, and now throw my support to President Trump. He says it's free speech, the war in Ukraine and the, quote, war on our children. So even though Kennedy was a Democrat for most of his life, and even though he has some views that are still aligned with democrats, his top issues align with Donald Trump, and he's hoping his voters share the same view.
Sarah McCammon
Ok, it's time for a quick break. We'll be back in just a moment.
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Sarah McCammon
Stephen, is there any reaction so far from the Harris campaign to RFK junior s announcement?
Stephen Fowler
You know, Sarah, it is still early, but they were kind of preparing for this. The Democratic Party did send out a memorandum on the RFK junior failed spoiler campaign, as they call it.
They reiterated some key things of RFK support, dropping of, you know, the favorability ratings against him being a negative.
And in their view, they call him a, quote, MAGA recruited MAGA funded chaos agent. And it's important to remember, too, that even if RFK wants to stay on the ballot in some of these other states, there are still a number of legal challenges that Democrats have filed seeking to remove him from the ballot. He's making their jobs easier. You know, as of right this minute, he removed himself from the Arizona ballot. And actually in Pennsylvania, we found out he was officially dropping out and endorsing Trump because of a court filing there. So the Democrats see this in many ways as a net positive, because not only do they have one less candidate to run against, but because of some of RFK's extreme views and now him tying himself to Trump, they have an even easier target to convince voters why they say Trump shouldn't be the next president.
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, it's certainly the argument that Democrats in 2016 were hurt by having third party candidates in the race who wound up getting more support as compared to 2020, when third party support dropped dramatically and Trump basically got the same share of the electorate, but Democrats wound up going up pretty considerably. RFK junior has always been sort of a little bit of a wild card in this because he did appear to pull about evenly from both candidates for a while because of the disaffection with both candidates. And it's kind of remarkable here, having Kennedy back, somebody like Donald Trump, somebody who had previously criticized and called unhinged, and also really going against the Democratic Party and his own family. I mean, so many people in the Kennedy family speaking out against what Robert F. Kennedy Junior is doing here.
Members of his family put out a statement, in fact, today saying, we want an America filled with hope, been bound together by a shared vision of a brighter future, a future defined by individual freedom, economic promise, and national pride. We believe in Harris and walls. Our brother Bobby's decision to endorse Trump today is a betrayal of the values that our father and our family hold most dear. It's a sad ending to a sad story. So quite the break within the family there.
Sarah McCammon
Steven, you were just talking about states where RFK junior is or isn't on the ballot and sort of the different instructions he's given his followers. I mean, how many states are we talking about? How many states did he actually manage to get his name on the ballot?
Stephen Fowler
Well, before he started withdrawing, he had about 20 or so states where he was already confirmed on the ballot, including the very, very difficult to get on Texas ballot. There's 48 total states where they say they submitted enough signatures. They were in various stages of processing, various stages of legal challenges. There's a couple interesting side notes that will come from this that we'll have to keep track of. In many states, he latched onto minor party ballots. He either created his own party, the we the People Party, or accepted the ballot line from other small parties in other states. And they run the risk of having to deal with the punishment of this, because a lot of these smaller parties can only keep being on the ballot if they have somebody actually run and get votes. So it's not just RFK withdrawing from the race that will have this sort of ripple effect. The other thing that is worth looking at is that a lot of the voters that I've talked to that support RFK throughout this year are people that didn't see themselves having a place in the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. And that's not going to change just because he's not running. So another thing that could be likely to see is some people that would have voted for RFK just not deciding to show up.
Sarah McCammon
One last question. We've been talking, of course, about the fact that RFK junior s campaign didn't get a lot of traction, actually lost support as it went forward. But just to put a marker down for history, you know, Domenico, what was his theory of the case here? Why was he in the race?
Domenico Montanaro
Well, he was really appealing to people who were unhappy with both Trump and Biden or both parties, frankly. You know, there's been really this rising online culture of people distrustful of government and expertise enmeshed in conspiracy theories, seeing corruption around every corner despite pieces of evidence to the contrary. For all of that, it really is sort of speaks to the larger state of affairs in America, where you have this decline in trust of a lot of the institutions that exist in this country and the sources of information that people are getting, including the media and the government. And that's a really difficult thing to put back together that he was certainly personifying.
Sarah McCammon
All right, we're going to leave it there for today. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the campaign.
Stephen Fowler
I'm Stephen Fowler. I also cover the campaign.
Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
Sarah McCammon
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast truth, independence, fairness, transparency, respect, excellence.
Domenico Montanaro
This is npregesthen.