OTHER: The Independent Voters Who Dominate Arizona

This episode explores the pivotal role of independent voters in Arizona, particularly in shaping outcomes in key races with national implications.

1. Independent voters constitute a significant portion of Arizona's electorate, often outpacing registered members of established political parties.
2. These voters are not strictly neutral but tend to lean towards one of the major parties, complicating the common perception of independents as uniformly swing voters.
3. The unique political landscape in Arizona, shaped by its independent voters, influences both state and national elections significantly.
4. Independent voters express frustration over their limited influence in primary elections, advocating for reforms that would allow greater participation.
5. The episode underscores the importance of understanding the nuanced political inclinations of independent voters in battleground states like Arizona.

1. Introduction to Independent Voters

The episode begins by setting the stage for the discussion on the critical role of independent voters in Arizona, highlighting their potential to influence major upcoming elections. Ashley Lopez: "Arizona is among one of the most interesting states in the country right now."

2. Voter Characteristics and Trends

Exploration of the demographics and political behaviors of independent voters, noting their increasing numbers and pivotal role in elections. Claudia Griselis: "More than one third of registered voters are independent voters."

3. Challenges in Primary Participation

Discussion on the barriers independent voters face in primary elections, emphasizing their desire for a more inclusive voting process. Emma Davidson: "Hopefully, this does get approved. So then more independents do vote."

4. Impact on Key Races

Analysis of how independent voters are poised to impact significant races, including the presidential and Senate races in Arizona. Domenico Montanaro: "Independents have always been a really key group in Arizona."

5. Looking Forward

Consideration of strategies political candidates might employ to appeal to independent voters in future elections. Claudia Griselis: "Arizona is going to be so critical, because it is a battleground."

• Educate yourself on the issues that matter to independent voters to better understand their impact on elections.
• Consider supporting electoral reforms that increase voter participation and representation, especially for non-affiliated voters.
• Engage in community discussions to gauge the diverse political perspectives that exist beyond traditional party lines.
• Advocate for open primaries to allow all voters, regardless of party affiliation, to have a say in candidate selection.
• Stay informed about local and national candidates who demonstrate an ability to appeal across party lines, as they often have a significant impact on key races.

Independent voters aren't necessarily swing voters. Most usually vote with one party. But in Arizona, they now represent the single largest group of voters in a state that is essential for both the presidency and control of the Senate.

This episode: voting correspondent Ashley Lopez, congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.

The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our intern is Bria Suggs. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.

People

Ashley Lopez, Claudia Griselis, Domenico Montanaro, Emma Davidson

Content Warnings:

None

Ashley Lopez
This message comes from NPR. Sponsor the Nature Conservancy. By working across communities, oceans, and aisles, the nature conservancy is delivering solutions for the planet and building a future where people and nature thrive. Learn more@nature.org solutions hi, this is Mark.

Juliana
And this is Juliana from Sharon, Massachusetts.

Ashley Lopez
We're currently in Tromsa, Norway, where it's almost midnight. We just finished running the midnight sun half marathon on a bright, sunny night surrounded by beautiful snow capped mountains along the ocean. This show was recorded at 12:35 p.m. eastern time on Monday, June 24, 2024.

Juliana
Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but we'll still be trying to remember what darkness looks like since we haven't seen it for over two weeks now.

Okay, here's the show.

Ashley Lopez
I'm pretty sure that would break my brain.

Claudia Griselis
It sounds so pleasant, though.

Domenico Montanaro
That's why I sleep with one of those like nod pod eye masks.

Ashley Lopez
Yeah, I feel like you come up with tricks, you know, if you have to live with that much light.

Domenico Montanaro
Gotta sleep.

Ashley Lopez
Yeah. Hey, there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

Claudia Griselis
I'm Claudia Griselis. I cover Congress.

Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

Ashley Lopez
And today we're talking about Arizona, which is among one of the most interesting states in the country right now. It's a presidential battleground. It has a must win Senate race for democrats, and a huge number of its voters happen to identify as independents. Claudia, you're back from a trip there, and you focused on those independent voters. What did you find when you talked to folks there?

Claudia Griselis
Right. I found that independent voters in Arizona will have a big say on these races with national implications, as you mentioned. And they are a very large share of the state. More than one third, third of registered voters are independent voters. And I was looking over the state's secretary of state numbers in terms of where they stand. Now, last year, they actually were the largest registered group in Arizona. So the largest party is not a party at all in Arizona. And that was the first time we saw that in Arizona since 2015. Now, this year, we've seen Republicans edge them out a little bit, according to the most recent numbers released in April. But I did talk to voters who thought that perhaps independent voters will edge them out again by the time of the election. This is something they're still tracking. And overall, these independent voters say they're going to have that big impact on these races, and they are a wild card. It's hard to track where they are. And candidates have to shift and pivot as best they can to try and capture them.

Ashley Lopez
And, Domenico, I think there's a common assumption that when we're talking about independent voters, we're talking about swing voters or persuadable voters, people who haven't figured out how they're going to vote. That's, like, not really the case here. Right?

Domenico Montanaro
Well, it's never really the case because people mostly are, they vote republican or they vote democratic. So we're talking about republican leaning independence for the most part or democratic leaning independence for the most part, with a very narrow slice of people who are truly persuadable. I will say, though, that Arizona, Nevada, places like that, their politics definitely cross some typical lines. It's not like you can say, oh, a Republican in Arizona, you know, or an independent in Arizona is the same as an independent in Michigan or something like that. I remember even when Kirsten Sinema was running for reelection, she was running ads as independent, even though at that time she was a registered Democrat. So independents have always been a really key, I would say the key group in Arizona, and while they may be the largest registered party group currently, and the first time since 2015, when it comes to party registration, when it comes to voting, they have been the plurality group for the last several cycles. In 2016, for example, according to exit polls, they were 40% of the electorate. They broke by three points for Trump, and Trump won the state that year. In 2020, they were 39% of the electorate, and Biden won them over Trump by nine. So definitely a key group.

Ashley Lopez
Yeah. And Claudia, I mean, I think it's interesting that they don't really have much of a structural way to participate in primaries and actually help select, like, the people who end up getting on the ballot for a general election. Can you talk to me about that?

Claudia Griselis
Yes, exactly. That is the complaint I heard from independent voters is they are not really reflected in terms of the kind of candidates that they're able to select through the various parties. I did meet one voter, Emma Davidson. This is a 24 year old who works collecting signatures for various political efforts. And the key effort she is especially interested in, because she is a former Republican turned independent, is she wants independents to get the ability to have their own primary.

Emma Davidson
Hopefully, this does get approved. So then more independents do vote. So then we can actually have, like, more options. That's why I want it to be passed, too, because, like, more voters, better options, more choices.

Claudia Griselis
And that's part of the greater theme I kept hearing from independent voters, is that they are not ultimately reflected when it comes to the candidates they get to pick from in the end. In her same case, for example, she doesn't know who she will vote for for sure in the presidential race. She just let out a big sigh when I laid out the options and also the Senate race and many others.

Ashley Lopez
All right, well, let's pivot to that important Senate race for a second. Claudia, what are the big differences you're seeing between the democratic and republican candidates in this race?

Claudia Griselis
Right. And we should note there's still a primary July 30 to narrow down the final two candidates, but it's already clear we're seeing the top candidates on both sides and on the democratic side, that's Ruben Gallego. He's been serving in the House for several terms now, and he is running for the Senate representing Democrats. On the republican side, we have two candidates. Carrie Lake, of course, is the top candidate there. She did not win her campaign to become governor of Arizona. And so when we look at the histories of both these candidates, if we look out more than a year, two years out at their positions, Gallego would lean pretty hard left. And then Carrie Lake, we see her more on the side of supporting former President Trump and what some folks would say are far right republicans. I mean, she is still to this day, caught up in litigation related to claims, if you will, about fraud in the election related to hers or others. And so she's a controversial figure, but we've seen her try to moderate. Democrats will argue, not successfully, but when it comes to abortion, for example, she's tried to thread that needle very carefully because that is a major motivating issue that could be on the ballot this year. Meanwhile, Gallego, we're seeing him moderate as well. When we talk about issues on the border, immigration, when it comes to military issues, of course, he's a former marine, but we're seeing him push more towards the middle, like we've seen, for example, border Democrats in Texas, such as Henry Cuellar, push for more immigration reform.

We're seeing Gallego take that stance more.

Domenico Montanaro
This is definitely a state that has rewarded moderates in the past and in the last several Senate races. If you've been sort of an extreme candidate, then you've really had big problems at the polls in November, and that's really hurt the Republican Party for the most part here. This is not a state that traditionally has been a democratic leaning state, but it certainly has been now over the last several cycles.

Ashley Lopez
Yeah. And Claudia, I wonder how much this race feels extra important because Democrats basically have to win every contested Senate race in the country to keep their one vote majority, right?

Claudia Griselis
Exactly. So Arizona is one of those very closely watched races. Democrats are really in a tough position this year in terms of defending that majority, as you mentioned, at the top. And so that's why Arizona is going to be so critical, because it is a battleground. We have two candidates who have not served in the Senate before and nationally in some cases with Lake and Gallego. And so this is going to be a major test for the state and for independent voters. They have this history in that state of sending mavericks to the Senate, like John McCain, for example, people who will follow kind of their own independent streak, if you will. We saw Sinema doing that quite a bit as she served in her time in the Senate. And so that's what voters are going to be looking for. And it will be tight. So it'll be hard to say who's going to pull that out.

Ashley Lopez
Well, let's take a quick break and we'll talk more in a second.

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Claudia Griselis
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Ashley Lopez
And we're back. Let's pivot now to the presidential race. What has the campaign in Arizona look like there? Claudia?

Claudia Griselis
So what we're hearing a lot about is both Biden and Trump and their teams are making a lot of visits there in terms of trying to rally voters to vote for them. But as we know earlier this year, Domenico, you reported on this, Arizona had their presidential preference voting effort where, and we've got to be clear, too, independents couldn't participate in this. But it gave a little bit of a clue in terms of which way the state may go. And clearly, it seems that Trump may have a lead here. We see more registered Republicans in the state at this time than Democrats as well as we're hearing from folks, when I was on the ground, I talked to Democrats who said, you know, right now is losing this state and the hope is he'll be able to turn it around by the time of the election.

Domenico Montanaro
I mean, we're definitely seeing both campaigns start to focus on Arizona. Certainly. We see Vice President Harris, for example, in the state talking about abortion rights, former President Trump making a visit there as well. Even though this is a state that the Trump campaign, you know, controversially in republican circles, the Trump campaign has spent very little money on advertising, for example, in a place where the, the race was decided by not only just thousands of votes, and they really want to see these republican strategists, a push from the Trump campaign all out to try to win in a place like Arizona and not take it for granted, despite Trump's consistent polling leads there. But they've kind of been reduced somewhat since the conviction of former President Trump in New York in that hush money trial on 34 felony counts. We've seen a bit of a bump for Biden. And that's got some Republicans concern that the Trump campaign needs to do a little bit more in ads and in outreach.

Claudia Griselis
And that was his first stop after those historic convictions was Arizona. A town hall there? A lot of folks lined up outside for this town hall. There were even some that were taken to the hospital because it was so hot. And it just shows kind of the priority of this battleground state for the Trump campaign even in the midst of his legal issues.

Ashley Lopez
And, Claudia, you had mentioned that immigration is one of the issues that Democrats are trying to tack sort of to the center on. I wonder if there's any evidence that Biden's recent immigration actions are being felt there. Did voters you talk to, were they aware of what has happened and do they have any thoughts?

Claudia Griselis
When I talked to voters in Phoenix, I didn't talk to many who were aware of his work on immigration.

And so I'm not sure if the, if the message is not getting across or it's something they're not interested in. But I did hear voters tell me it's a top issue, along with abortion. That's a top issue I kept hearing from voters. And so it's possible, like some of these Democrats told me, that some of this will sink in later as the Biden campaign works to get the word out.

Domenico Montanaro
And, of course, I mean, Arizona is a huge suing state. This is an emerging part of the country when we talk about the Sunbelt states that Democrats have focused on with Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, as they see the country sort of changing and bringing in far more Latinos in the country, the largest growing immigrant group in the country already. Those who are under 18 are majority nonwhite in this country. So even if you shut off the border completely starting today, by 2040, it's going to likely be a majority non white country as it is. And so you've got these two areas of the country where Democrats and Republicans are focused on with the Sunbelt and the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And really, Arizona has been one of those critical places because Democrats have been able to focus a lot of their energies in one part of the state in Maricopa county, where Phoenix is, where two thirds of the vote generally comes from for Democrats. And, you know, Biden was able to win. It eke out a win there in Arizona in 2020, and they're looking to try to do the same thing again, although I think most strategists would say that Trump probably has a narrow advantage right now.

Ashley Lopez
Yeah.

Claudia Griselis
And it will also come down to turnout, too, in terms of even if Republicans have the highest registrations among voters in Arizona, it's still not clear who's going to be most energized to come out come November.

Ashley Lopez
Yeah.

Claudia Griselis
All right.

Ashley Lopez
Well, let's leave it there for today. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

Claudia Griselis
I'm Claudia Grizzales. I cover Congress.

Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

Ashley Lopez
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

Rachel Martin
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On this week's episode of Wild Card, comedian Taylor Tomlinson explains how you can use fear as a motivating force.

Claudia Griselis
I was afraid that I would get years down the road and go, man, I really wish I had pursued that or I wish I had developed this talent that might have taken me somewhere.

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Narrator
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Claudia Griselis
India is really in danger now. All the democratic structures have been compromised.

Narrator
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