Nervous Democrats: Internal Polling, Senate Map Are Worries

This episode delves into the current political climate surrounding the U.S. Senate elections, focusing on the Democrats' nervousness due to internal polling and challenges in key states.

1. Shift in Democratic Strategy: Democrats are shifting from a "Blue Wall or bust" approach to exploring new pathways for electoral success.
2. Concerns Over Internal Polling: Internal polls are less optimistic than public ones, prompting a cautious approach from the Democrats.
3. Importance of Voter Demographics: Key demographics, especially young voters and voters of color, are pivotal for the Democrats' success.
4. Senate Race Challenges: The Senate races are extremely tight, with Democrats defending seats in both red and swing states.
5. Economic Factors: Economic perceptions are increasingly central, influencing voter sentiment and campaign strategies.

1: Overview of Electoral Challenges

This chapter discusses the Democratic Party's nervousness due to challenging Senate races and internal polling discrepancies. Key points include strategic adaptations and the significance of internal versus public polling. Deepa Shivaram: "This year includes the domination of strategic shifts and challenges." Domenico Montanaro: "Internal polling is not as rosy as public ones, indicating real challenges ahead."

2: Analysis of Voter Demographics

Focuses on the critical role of diverse voter demographics in shaping the electoral landscape, particularly the impact of young and minority voters. Deepa Shivaram: "Harris's gains are significantly attributed to young people and voters of color." Domenico Montanaro: "Harris is overperforming with black and Latino voters, crucial for success in the Sunbelt states."

1. Stay Informed: Regularly check both internal and public polling data to understand political dynamics.
2. Engage with Diverse Demographics: Focus outreach efforts on young and minority voters who are pivotal in swing states.
3. Monitor Economic Issues: Keep abreast of economic developments as they significantly influence voter decisions.
4. Participate in Local Politics: Engagement at the local level can have ripple effects on national elections.
5. Support Voter Registration Drives: Ensuring high voter registration and turnout is crucial, especially in battleground states.

Kamala Harris has a number of paths to the 270 electoral votes she needs to secure the presidency, a change from the Biden campaign. But political operatives tell NPR that their internal polling shows a very tight race with Donald Trump. And despite new optimism from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Democrats' path to holding the Senate after Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement is precarious at best.

This episode: White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.

The podcast is produced by Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.

People

Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama, Rafael Warnock, Sherrod Brown, John Tester, Joe Manchin, Chuck Schumer

Companies

None

Books

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Guest Name(s):

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Content Warnings:

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Deepa Shivaram
They're all over the Internet and bumping out of people's cars.

Domenico Montanaro
They're the songs of the summer, and.

Deepa Shivaram
This year includes the domination of Charlie.

Domenico Montanaro
XCX, and Brat Summer.

Deirdre Walsh
She's really tapping into this moment where.

Deepa Shivaram
We are all chronically online but also chronically outside. We are talking about the songs of.

Domenico Montanaro
The summer and why they're so catchy and inescapable.

Deirdre Walsh
Listen to the pop culture happy hour podcast from NPR.

Deepa Shivaram
This is Annabelle at Heathrow Airport, getting ready to board my flight home to Austin, Texas, after an Epic Girls trip to Budapest, Prague and Vienna. This podcast was recorded at 01:07 p.m. on Monday, August 26, 2024. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will be happy to be at home in my bed and cuddling my dog.

Austin is where the best tacos are.

Domenico Montanaro
Those are all destinations, including starting in Austin.

Deepa Shivaram
It's a great city, epic public transportation, if I can add that. Hey, there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.

Deirdre Walsh
I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

Deepa Shivaram
Okay, so today on the show, with the political conventions officially behind us, we're gonna take a look at the map that the candidates need to put together to hit 270 electoral votes and win the presidency. NPR has put together a map of where things stand today, and the results at this point show Harris is continuing to build momentum. Momentum?

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. I mean, when you look at what's happened in the polls, Harris has gained, on average, about four to six points, not just nationally, but in the swing states. When you look across the seven major swing states that people are paying the closest attention to, and what that's meant is that just looking strictly at the polling, and these are within the margin of error still. But in the big three blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she's now out ahead of Trump. When Trump had been up about three points over Biden, when Biden was in the race. So a big shift there. And in the Sunbelt states, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, the lead has just been completely erased, and Trump had been up five to six points. And it's really shaken up the map and certainly given Harris a bunch of different paths potentially to get to 270 electoral votes.

Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. More options here for the Harris campaign. But one thing you pointed out that I think is interesting to highlight here is that these polls are still within the margin of error. Right. So you're still hearing from Democrats and especially the Harris campaign, honestly, that are still worried about the state of the race. They don't want to give up any of this momentum because they know it's still really tight. Even with all of this big fundraising and all of this energy that's been inserted into the campaign, they're not in a super comfortable position here.

Domenico Montanaro
No. I mean, if I were Democrats, I'd peek at this with one eye open and keep going to work. Right. Because, I mean, this is not even where Joe Biden was in 2020. You know, he had much larger leads across most of the battleground states. He wound up winning them. But remember, he only won by 44,000 votes in three states. That would have given Trump the, the edge to go over 270 electoral votes. So these, these elections are all expected to be closed, these states. And remember, Democrats at the convention, including Michelle Obama, the former first lady, were warning that Democrats really need to win by bigger margins so that, you know, Donald Trump isn't able to cry fraud and create a havoc after election day.

Deirdre Walsh
We heard a lot of enthusiasm at the convention in Chicago, but on the stage and off the stage, there were a lot of Democrats constantly saying, the race is still really close. The race is still really close. And we see all these public polls and battleground state polls. But the Democrats have a very well funded super PAC that is supporting the ticket future forward. And they did a rare on the record briefing. They usually don't talk to us about their data, and they talked about the big shift they saw, similar to what Domenico outlined in terms of, like, the old path for Biden was what they called blue wall or bust. And now there's these other paths for the Harris Walls ticket. But what they did state on the record is that their polls aren't as rosy as the public polls.

Maybe they're trying to raise more money and sending that message out through reporters in Chicago. But I think that there is still concern that while some of these states are coming back online as toss ups like Domenico mentioned, in terms of the Sun Belt states, there still is a lot of registration work to be doing, ballot chasing to be doing, making sure people are getting out the vote.

And there's a real, real intense focus on field work right now.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. And that's why we have actually two separate maps on our story today about this because, you know, based on conversations with the campaigns, with super pacs, with, and looking at the historical trends, I have all seven of these closely watched states as toss ups, which is basically, by the way, drum roll. Where we started the race, a lot.

Deirdre Walsh
Happened in a month, and then we ended up back where we started.

Deepa Shivaram
No, that's really interesting. I mean, look, you keep hearing it from Democrats and the folks. You were talking to Deirdre at the convention and. Yeah, I mean, I was with Harris in some of these rooms where she was speaking to democratic supporters after her big speech on Thursday night. And she told the folks in the room who were there to rally with her that it's okay to celebrate tonight, but tomorrow they had to get to work. I'm curious where she's getting these gains from. You know, her bigger block of supporters have been young people and voters of color. Are they the ones who are boosting her at this point?

Domenico Montanaro
Basically everybody who's not middle aged to old or white. We've seen, you know, Biden was doing particularly well among white voters and suburban voters. Harris has not done as well in polling with some of those groups as Biden was, but she's way overperforming where Biden was with black voters, with younger voters, especially younger black voters, Latinos, which is what's helping her out west. I think that this is a big reason why we're seeing, especially the Sunbelt states come back online as toss ups, because they are diversifying, they're younger. And because of that, because of what she's been able to do so far in firing up these other groups, is that North Carolina has now come off the board for Trump as a state that they were definitely counting on as being in their camp. And if that was the case, they had to then win Georgia and Pennsylvania to put the pieces together to get to 270 and wouldn't have to win any of the other states. Now, with North Carolina back into a toss up category, the Trump folks are scrambling, frankly, to find a path where they can get there. Because even if he wins, Pennsylvania, for example, where they've spent almost $100 million between both campaigns on ads just in the past month, he can't get to 270 if Harris takes a North Carolina off the board. Arizona and Nevada. So it's really scrambled the picture for the Trump campaign.

Deirdre Walsh
Speaking of groups, deepa, that you were talking about, one of the focuses at the convention in Chicago, among a lot of the delegates and political figures, there was a push to get black men out to vote and a real sort of concentrated effort on the need to really focus because of the states that Domenico was just mentioning. And I talked to Georgia Senator Rafael Warnock, who noted that he's been on the ballot five times in Georgia because of all the special elections and so he has had sort of his own brand of outreach effort to black men, and he said he had already called the campaign and talked to them about basically partnering with them and sort of trying to use some of the best practices he used in his last race to sort of charge up vote among black men.

Deepa Shivaram
Yeah, absolutely. We're going to take a quick break there, and we'll be back in a moment.

Okay, so tell me if this sounds like you. You love NPR's podcasts. You wish they weren't interrupted by sponsor breaks like this one. And you want to support NPR's mission of creating a more informed public. If this does sound like you, then it's time to sign up for perks across more than 20 podcasts with the NPR bundle. Learn more at plus dot npr.org dot.

D
Hey, I'm Robert Smith from Planet money. And this summer we are bringing you the entire history of the world, at least the economic it's Planet money summer school. Every week we'll invite in a brilliant professor and play classic episodes about the birth of money, banks and finance. There will be rogues and revolutionaries and a lot of panics. Summer school every Wednesday till Labor Day on the Planet Money podcast from NPR.

This summer on Planet money, we're bringing you the entire history of the world, at least the economics part. It's Planet Money summer school. Every week we'll invite in a brilliant professor and play classic episodes about the birth of money, banks and finance. There will be rogues and revolutionaries and a lot of panics. Summer school every Wednesday till Labor Day on the planet money podcast from NPR.

Deepa Shivaram
Truth, independence, fairness, transparency, respect, excellence. This is npregesthen and we're back. One of the few elements for Democrats when President Biden was still at the top of the ticket was that down ballot candidates were outperforming the president. And that said operatives were quietly conceding that the Senate was probably out of reach for Democrats. Deirdre, that could still be the case, right? I mean, it's hard to overstate here how close and tight some of these races are for candidates like Montana's John Tester, Ohio's Sherrod Brown, for example.

Deirdre Walsh
Right? I mean, it was always going to be a close race for the Senate. The Democrats hold a very, very narrow majority, and the map is much, much tougher for them in November than it is for Republicans. They're defending 23 seats. A lot of them are in red states like the ones you mentioned, Montana and Ohio. And then a lot of them are in purple states, places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, you know, Democrats have to really kind of run the table to keep their majority. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin's retiring. And even Chuck Schumer admitted in a roundtable with reporters in Chicago. Chicago, they're not going to win that seat. So if they lose one of their other incumbent seats in Montana or Ohio, Republicans could pick up the Senate, if nothing else changes in terms of the rest of the seats on the map. So I have to say there seemed to be some sort of, like, major boost in enthusiasm. I mean, Chuck Schumer was singing to reporters, literally singing. He was in such a great mood. He said he had never been to a convention as enthusiastic as the one in Chicago, and he's been to every convention since 1984.

Deepa Shivaram
Wow.

Deirdre Walsh
He talked about saying confidently that he believes they will hold the Senate and even pick up a seat or two.

Let's talk about where, if picking up a seat or two means Democrats would have to win in places like Texas or Florida.

Deepa Shivaram
Right.

Deirdre Walsh
The Senate's campaign committee is not spending any money in those races. And Schumer noted that, but said, you know, I don't talk to the super PAC. Maybe they would want to invest some money there. And he sort of made the case that other issues could help boost Democrats in those states. You talked about Montana. There's an abortion ballot measure on the ballot in Montana, also in Florida and in Arizona. But in places like Florida, they think maybe that could help boost the democratic challenger, Demi Mercar. So Powell against the incumbent, Rick Scott. But I think the map is different, very different than the map we just talked about a few months ago in terms of the path to 270. I mean, we are looking at a very narrow map for control of the Senate and the House. I should add in the House, Democrats have to pick up four seats to flip control.

Republicans currently control the House. And those races are sort of all over the country, but in a lot of blue places, places like New York, places like California. And that's not the place that the Harris Walls campaign has really spent a lot of time or money.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, but having the enthusiasm kind of come up a little bit, you know, considering the types of voters that would be needed in some of these more democratic areas, like New York state, for example, if there's a wave that sort of comes up that floats among Democrats, rather than just sitting at home saying, you know, I'm not in a swing state, I don't really care which was possible. And certainly looking that way previously, if that were to happen, certainly the candidates in those places for Democrats feel like they at least have a fighting chance now to be able to, you know, do well or pick up the House. The Senate, obviously, Schumer saying that they could pick up a seat is spin.

Deepa Shivaram
You know, as we keep our pulse on reality here, I mean, there's also some chances for Republicans to pick up, as we were talking about New York and California for the House. But, you know, in the Senate, these races are really close and we can't count that out.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. And just to give you a couple numbers, Montana and Ohio, we've had almost $300 million spent in those two places just on the Senate races. And Montana, anybody? $100 million in Montana goes a long way. And right now you've got $114 million spent in Montana. Democrats by about 20 million, spending more than Republicans. Ohio is a little bit different story, 177 million spent in Ohio on ads since the beginning of the campaign and Republicans actually outspending there by 8 million. What's interesting, in places like Arizona and Texas, you have a bit of a lopsided spending comparison because Democrats are way outspending in both places. Arizona, 36 million total spent with Democrats spending, 29 of that. And in Texas, Colin Allred, you know, not a lot of people giving him much of a chance, but he spent about $30 million so far of the 34 million that have been spent so far in that Texas race. Not likely to win, but something to keep an eye on.

Deirdre Walsh
I think the other thing thats interesting with the congressional races is that a few months ago, when we were talking to top officials at the Senate and House campaign committees, there was a lot of focus from Democrats on the issue of reproductive rights and Republicans worried about playing defense on that issue. I think talking to people in Chicago, I think most Democrats admit that is a big issue. And it was talked about a lot from candidates on the stage, obviously, all the leading candidates. But most of said it's really all going to come down to the economy and that the pocketbook issues are emerging as the top tier issue in all of the big races across the map.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, I think that's absolutely true. Perceptions of the economy, even if they improve slightly, that certainly is seen as a help to Harris early polling that we saw from us and from others. When Harris got in the race, she was doing slightly better than Biden was doing on who you trust more on the economy. Trump still had the advantage, but, you know, shaving off those margins is really important, and that can make its way all the way down the ballot, as we've seen, you know, the congressional ballot for Democrats since Harris has gotten in has actually gone up. And that's the question when you ask people in polls generically, who would you rather have in charge of Congress, Democrats or Republicans? Democrats had a very slight advantage, certainly not high enough for what they would need to take over the House. And that's expanded a little bit.

Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. And we should point out here, I mean, I think the way that Kamala Harris has been talking about the economy on the trail, I was talking to a former Bill Clinton advisor who was saying that the way Harris talks about the economy is markedly different than the way that President Biden talks about it. Right. And she kind of comes at it with a little bit of, you know, more of that real person experience of like, I know you're going to the grocery store and the costs are still too high versus the, like, inflation is coming down and people don't really have a grasp on what that means. So definitely something to keep an eye on. And we should point out that because it's almost September, the timeline here of talking about these issues is very short. Voting is about to begin in a lot of areas. We talk about election day as a singular day most of the time. But absentee ballot voting, early voting, will start very soon in a lot of states.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. I was really struck during Harris's economic speech at the different tone that she took on the economy than Biden did, because Harris was actually saying, I know that prices are too high for some of you, and here's what I'm going to do to try to address it. Whether or not those things would actually address those things is a different situation. But when you would ask Biden those questions, as you very well know, Deepa, he would get kind of defensive about it and point to what the economists were saying.

Deepa Shivaram
All right, we're going to leave it there for today. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.

Deirdre Walsh
I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

Deepa Shivaram
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.

Deirdre Walsh
I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro. I don't know what I do anymore. Sorry.

Deepa Shivaram
Whew.

Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

Deepa Shivaram
The Constitution, our founding document, says a lot about how our country has evolved and who we want to be, but it's not set in stone.

So for the next month, we'll be digging into the history behind some of its most pivotal amendments.

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We find weird, fun, interesting stories that.

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Deepa Shivaram
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