Encore: NPR's Electoral College Map Analysis

This episode provides a detailed analysis of the electoral college map focusing on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with particular attention to competitive states and demographic shifts affecting the election's dynamics.

1. The "Blue Wall" states remain critical for a Democratic victory, with significant campaign funds being allocated to secure these states.
2. Demographic shifts, particularly among Latino and young voters, are altering traditional voting patterns.
3. Both parties are targeting specific voter demographics, with Republicans making inroads among traditionally Democratic supporters.
4. Economic issues and social policies like abortion are anticipated to be significant motivators for voters in the upcoming election.
5. The evolving political landscape could lead to a reshaping of party strategies and voter alignment based on educational attainment.

1: Introduction and Background

Tamara Keith sets the stage by explaining the significance of the electoral college in the presidential election and introduces the main focus areas of the episode. Tamara Keith: "Today, what has to happen for a presidential candidate to win?"

2: The Blue Wall

Discussion on the importance of the Blue Wall states and their role in securing a presidential win. Domenico Montanaro: "The wall crumbled in 2016, and that's why Democrats are spending a lot of money right now to try to rebuild that wall."

3: Campaign Strategies

Analyzes how both the Biden and Trump campaigns are strategizing to appeal to critical voter segments in key states. Danielle Kurtzleben: "Republicans have been talking about trying to win young voters, specifically young men."

4: Demographic Shifts and Political Implications

Explores how demographic changes are influencing party strategies and voter behavior. Domenico Montanaro: "Demographics is destiny, but issues matter, too."

5: Conclusion and Forward Look

The episode wraps up with reflections on ongoing and future political coverage. Tamara Keith: "We will have plenty of coverage of the presidential election between now and November, so be sure to stay here for the latest."

• Stay informed on key issues and policies discussed during campaigns to make educated voting decisions.
• Participate in local and national elections to have a say in shaping governmental policies.
• Engage in community discussions to understand diverse perspectives and enhance communal decision-making.
• Advocate for issues you care about by contacting representatives or participating in civic groups.
• Educate others about the importance of understanding the electoral college and its impact on election outcomes.

The 2024 presidential race will come down to two key regions: the industrial Midwest and the Sun Belt, The number of white voters without a college degree is dwindling as a share of the total electorate, but can Trump's inroads with voters of color help him to make up the ground he needs to defeat President Biden?

This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, political correspondent Danielle Kurtzleben, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.

This podcast originally aired in April. It was produced by Kelli Wessinger and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.

People

Tamara Keith, Danielle Kurtzleben, Domenico Montanaro

Content Warnings:

None

NPR Sponsor
This message comes from NPR sponsor Rosetta Stone, an expert in language learning for 30 years. Right now, NPR listeners can get Rosetta Stones lifetime membership to 25 different languages for 50% off. Learn more@rosettastone.com npr.

Tamara Keith
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And today, what has to happen for a presidential candidate to win? We wanted to revisit a conversation we had last month about the upcoming presidential election. Of course, presidents are elected by the electoral college. They have to get at least 270 electoral votes to win from the 538 available.

But some states are actually going to be quite competitive. Danielle Kurtzleben and Domenico Montanaro joined me for this conversation, and I started by asking Domenico about the electoral map that he had developed.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, I mean, there aren't any huge surprises in the states that we'll be looking at and focusing on pretty heavily. But they are the ones that we've been talking about in these two sort of buckets, the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and to a little bit of a lesser degree, North Carolina. But essentially, those seven states are going to get billions of dollars in advertising, almost all of the focus for organizers, with a few exceptions here and there. But it really is a shrunken map if you consider where we were, say, 20 years ago.

Tamara Keith
So let's start in the midwest. In Domenico, you mentioned the blue wall.

Remind us, what is the blue wall?

Domenico Montanaro
Well, the blue wall is composed of three states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. And it's sort of gotten this name within politics because if Democrats were to win in those places traditionally, that they would win the election because it would be enough to get them to 270, half of the 538 that's needed and would essentially insulate them from a push by Republicans almost anywhere else.

Tamara Keith
Okay, so what is your analysis telling you about those states and how competitive they are, whether they will be a wall or could be a wall or whether the wall has crumbled?

Domenico Montanaro
Well, the wall crumbled in 2016, and that's why Democrats are spending a lot of money right now to try to rebuild that wall. Biden won, remember, in 2020 in all three of those states and sort of rebuilt it back, but has been struggling. His approval ratings have been low. He's been lagging with some key groups in these areas, young voters, black voters, younger black voters in particular in a state like Michigan. And that's why you've seen the Biden campaign spending as much money as they are, some $4 million right now in each Michigan and Pennsylvania trying to win back the groups that already voted for him. Remember, Biden won with 51% of the vote overall. And his big task here is to get those same people who voted for him to vote for him again.

Tamara Keith
And Danielle, you cover the Trump campaign. It certainly looks like he is really trying to compete in those states, really trying to speak to non college working class voters, even trying to win over union voters who in theory would be more democratic but aren't necessarily a lock for Democrats.

Danielle Kurtzleben
Right? Yes. And you hear this in some of the campaign's rhetoric and some of other Republicans rhetoric. We do know that Republicans have been talking about trying to win young voters, specifically young men. And we just got some new data last week from the Harvard youth poll. This showed that President Biden's lead among young men is six points, whereas among young women, his lead is 33 points. Now, yes, he does have that small lead among young men. But the point that I'm making here is that that is not a big lead, especially for young voters who tend to be heavily democratic in presidential elections. So that does potentially indicate that Republicans have made and maybe can still make some more inroads, especially among young men.

Also, we should add here that those three states we're talking about here with the blue wall, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, are three states that really do have a fair bit of their economies wrapped up in manufacturing, in goods producing industries. And Trump really, really is making a push on manufacturing policy, specifically by talking about tariffs, imposing tariffs on China, making sure that cheap chinese goods are not making their way into the US through Mexico. And we have seen Biden try to hit back on that again. That is another issue where a candidate can also be really very much reaching out to working age male voters. And that is what both campaigns are doing.

Tamara Keith
Right. And just to talk about it from the Biden side of things, President Biden, he went and he stood with the United Auto workers when they were on strike. He's recently announced new tariffs. He never really rolled back the Trump era tariffs on China and on steel. And he is certainly in a way that Hillary Clinton in 2016 really didn't. He is making a play for those very same male voters.

Domenico Montanaro
I think it's fascinating that what the Biden campaign is trying to do is appeal to working class voters, not just white working class voters. I mean, we saw this with an ad campaign that the Biden campaigns put out in Pennsylvania, for example, with a black man who is a union member who was touting Biden's strength with unions and what he's done for working people. And that's sort of a counterweight to what Trump is needing to do, which is appeal very strongly to white voters without college degrees who make up a significant portion of the vote in each of those three states. One problem, though, that Trump may have is the changing demographics in the country, because white voters without college degrees turned out at about 55% turnout rate in 2016. There were more than that, 63% in 2020, but he still lost. And that's because of the changing demography of the country, where you have more Latinos, more Asian Americans in the country, and a shrinking share of the electorate for white working class voters. I talked to Michael McDonald, who's a professor at the University of Florida. He's sort of the preeminent turnout expert in the country. And he is predicting that there's going to be a lower turnout in 2024 than 2020 because, remember, 2020 was during the pandemic and lots of mail in votes. Here's what he had to say and how that could affect the election.

Michael McDonald
To replicate that again in 2024, there going to have to be some really major issues, and you're really going to have to energize voters. And the people who would most likely then not participate if we're going to have a lower turnout in 2020 are going to be these lower education voters.

Tamara Keith
You know, just to talk about the demographics, the Democratic Party has made a play for college educated voters who traditionally would be republican but have felt discomfort with Trump on various levels.

Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, we started to see that shift in our polling where white, college educated men had gone for Trump by three points in 2020, according to exit polls. And our latest poll showed Biden up more than 20 points with them. We'll see if that holds. But if it does, it certainly indicates a reshaping of the parties, right?

Danielle Kurtzleben
Broadly speaking, yes, we often talk about racial gender divides in voting, and those aren't disappearing exactly, but they're shifting some with some, for example, non white groups. Polls are starting to show moving away from the Democratic Party, but we are possibly seeing a different divide open even wider, which is the educational divide, with college educated voters moving more democratic and non college educated voters moving more republican. I think that is pretty fair to say at this point.

Tamara Keith
All right, well, we are going to take a quick break. And when we come back, the sunbelt.

NPR Sponsor
This message comes from NPR's sponsor, Teladog Health. There are lots of reasons for wanting to be healthy. Family, work, living a fuller life. Teladog Health understands whether you have diabetes, high blood pressure or just need to manage your weight, Teladoc health can help. Visit teladochealth.com whatsyour why? For more information. Thats Teladoc health.

Whatsyour why?

NPR Sponsor
This message comes from NPR sponsor Betterhelp. When you keep your stress bottled up, it can eat away at you. Therapy is a safe space to get things off your chest and to figure out how to make them better. Try Betterhelp online therapy designed to be convenient, flexible and suited to your schedule. Get it off your chest with betterhelp@betterhelp.com. nPR today to get 10% off your first month.

NPR Sponsor
This message comes from NPR sponsor Rei co op. Rei has gear, clothing classes and advice for camping and glamping, biking and hiking, axing and snacksing, backpacking and another outdoor thing that rhymes with backpacking. Visit your local REI co op or rei.com for the million and one ways you can opt outside.

Tamara Keith
And we're back. And the Sunbelt is also a major area of focus for both campaigns with lots of young voters of color, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina.

Domenico, what does the landscape look like there?

Domenico Montanaro
This is really super interesting because the landscape in the Sunbelt is completely changing. And the demographics there are why, you know, we talked about Latinos and Asian Americans being two of the fastest and largest growing groups in the country when it comes to the changes overall. And that's really reshaped. Places like Nevada and Arizona in the southwest, New Mexico, Colorado and even in Georgia, for example, you know, you've had a huge change overall with lots of different demographic groups coming into play where Democrats are really looking at the sunbelt as the future of the Democratic Party, whereas maybe the blue wall was something of the past.

Tamara Keith
And in terms of whether these are lean democratic, lean republican or total toss ups, where do these states fall?

Domenico Montanaro
Well, these Sun Belt states, because of how the demography is changing. Democrats are really looking to the Sun Belt states as the future of the Democratic Party. And, you know, that's because of Latinos, Asian Americans, black voters, remigration to the south also. And these states, many of them now, which had been states that had been really republican states, are now either in the toss up category or lean republican category. I would put Florida in the likely republican category just because of its history in the last few election cycles.

Tamara Keith
So, Danielle, we used to talk a lot about demographics being destiny with a growing non white voter population in the country. That's a group of voters that traditionally have been democratic voters. But I feel like the whole demographics is destiny thing might be shifting somewhat?

NPR Sponsor
Sure.

Danielle Kurtzleben
Yes. And it is possible to overstate this, depending on who you are reading or listening to during the cycle. There are some, particularly on the republican side, in the Trump column, who are very happy to tell you that a historic realignment is happening that Trump is going to win over unprecedented, or at the least in recent years, unprecedented numbers of black and brown voters. I think a lot of pollsters you might talk to, analysts you might talk to, would cast doubt on something that big of something that historic. But many polls we have seen have shown that, for example, Latinos are shifting away from Joe Biden and towards Donald Trump. We have some indications that maybe some black voters are shifting towards Trump as well. I mean, so, yes, in terms of race and ethnicity, there are some signs that, that whole demographics are destiny, which really has often been shorthand for the more nonwhite the country becomes, the more democratic it might become. That might not be right. Now, that said, like I said earlier.

Tamara Keith
You have other, other demographics that might be destined.

Danielle Kurtzleben
Yeah. You have other demographic shifts that are happening now, especially education. It is hard to really overstate how wide the gaps in education can be. Again, the more educated people in the population tending to vote democratic and more than they used to, and the non college educated people who are voting more republican than they used to, you know.

Domenico Montanaro
Demographics is destiny, but issues matter, too. I think that's kind of what it's about. And right now, the economy, inflation for a lot of voters, especially working class latino voters, it's a struggle. It's difficult in a place like Nevada, in a place like Arizona. I also think that really, the overarching piece of what we're talking about here when it comes to the Sunbelt in especially those couple of states, is latino voters, as Danielle was talking about, and I put this question to Mike McDonald about Latinos and why they might be shifting in some respects toward Trump. And a lot of it has to do with how immigration is talked about and how that is framed for Latinos.

Michael McDonald
People who've been here for a while actually don't like illegal immigration. They got here legally. They look at people who are here undocumented and say, well, that's not fair.

Domenico Montanaro
So you can hear there, the longer you're here and when you did it, as they feel correctly, then there's a different sense of how this debate is framed from the left and that they don't just carte blanche. Agree with the democratic argument on this. However, as McDonnell put it, he said, when you start becoming punitive, when you start calling people, animals or dehumanizing them, then that's a big put off. So a lot of this line is going to depend on how much Trump crosses the line or doesn't and how he frames it.

Tamara Keith
And with regards to the economy, the Biden campaign is very clear that they understand they have a problem in Nevada, a state that has had a slow recovery, that has really struggled to come back in a way that other states have not. You know, it's a state that hasn't experienced the onshoring boom that the blue wall states, for instance, experienced. Some of another issue, though, that is really important in this election, as far as we can tell. And, Danielle, you've covered this a lot. Is abortion it is likely, Democrats believe, to be a motivator for voters. And certainly former President Trump has been talking about the issue a lot in terms of figuring out a safe island for himself.

Danielle Kurtzleben
Yes. Yeah. And Florida, which has a six week abortion band, will have a measure on the ballot that could potentially protect abortion access or reopen abortion access, I should say, in the state this November. And so Democrats are hoping that that drives out a lot of democratic and democratic leaning independent voters. In fact, the Biden campaign has said that they are doing some reproductive freedom, as they call it, events in Florida this week. And so they are putting a stake in the ground there saying, yes, we are going to be really pushing on this.

Domenico Montanaro
I think it's safe to say that the Biden campaign is sort of dipping a toe in the pool of Florida to see if they can move some of the numbers there because it's a very expensive state to campaign in, to advertise in. The Biden campaign spent $150 million in Florida in 2020 to no avail. So should they use that money in that state? Would they be better served putting it in one of these other seven states? I think that's the calculation the campaign is going to have to make. And it depends on how much extra money they have.

Tamara Keith
Yeah, I mean, talk about demographic shifts going from being the toss up state in the year 2000 to not really even being competitive in 2020 despite a lot of spending.

Domenico Montanaro
Well, tam, you mentioned the 2000 election. I mean, look at how these Sunbelt states have changed in the last 20 years. Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, all toss up states close to it or solidly in the democratic column.

Danielle Kurtzleben
But speaking of major shifts, let's also talk about issue shifts as of 2012, 2016. Years ago, it was very easy for you to go out and talk to a bunch of voters to find Republicans who said abortion is my top issue. It was hard to find Democrats saying that. Now that is entirely flipped, and it's easy to lose sight of how big of a deal that is. But it is a 180 degree shift from when I first started reporting.

Tamara Keith
That's how we left it back in April. Of course, we will have plenty of coverage of the presidential election between now and November, so be sure to stay here for the latest. My thanks to colleagues Domenico Montanaro and Danielle Kurtzleben for joining me. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow, as usual. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

NPR Sponsor
This message comes from NPR sponsor Mint mobile. From the gas pump to the grocery store, inflation is everywhere. So Mint Mobile is offering premium wireless starting at just $15 a month. To get your new phone plan for just $15, go to mintmobile.com. switch support for NPR and the following message come from Rosetta Stone, the perfect app to achieve your language learning goals. No matter how busy your schedule gets. Its designed to maximize study time with immersive ten minute lessons and audio practice for your commute. Plus, tailor your learning plan for specific objectives like travel. Get Rosetta Stones lifetime membership for 50% off and unlimited access to 25 language courses. Learn more@rosettastone.com NPR last year, over 20,000.

NPR Sponsor
People joined the body electric study to change their sedentary, screen filled lives. And guess what?

Danielle Kurtzleben
We saw amazing effects.

NPR Sponsor
Now you can try NPR's body electric. Challenge yourself. Listen to updated and new episodes wherever you get your podcasts.