Dueling Arizona Ballot Measures Could Juice Voter Turnout

This episode dives into two pivotal ballot measures in Arizona concerning abortion access and immigration policies, exploring their potential to influence voter turnout in upcoming elections.

1. Arizona's Two Major Ballot Initiatives: One ensures abortion access, and the other addresses illegal border crossings.
2. Strategic Signature Gathering: The abortion initiative aims for excess signatures to buffer against legal challenges.
3. Political Implications: Both measures are seen as tactics to boost voter turnout for respective parties.
4. Partisan Mobilization: The initiatives could significantly influence the electoral landscape in Arizona.
5. Broader Impact: Similar ballot measures have been pivotal in other states, shaping political dynamics and voter engagement.

1: Introduction

The hosts introduce the topic and set the stage for the discussion on Arizona's ballot measures. Asma Khalid: "Today, we are going to head down to Arizona where there are competing forces at play with ballot initiatives."

2: Detailing the Ballot Measures

Discussion on the specifics of the abortion access and immigration ballot measures, including their strategic and legal aspects. Ben Giles: "Their goal is to gather a total of 800,000 signatures before a July deadline to qualify for the ballot."

3: Political Analysis

Analysis of how these measures might affect voter turnout and benefit different political parties. Ben Giles: "It's viewed as a necessity here because we have currently in effect a 15-week abortion ban."

4: National Context

Comparison with similar measures in other states and their effects on voter motivation and election outcomes. Sarah McCammon: "Democrats and abortion rights activists have been really excited about this option the past couple of years."

1. Stay Informed: Understand the specifics of ballot initiatives in your area to make informed decisions.
2. Participate in Signature Campaigns: Engage with local political movements to support or oppose initiatives through signature gathering.
3. Vote: Exercise your right to vote, especially in ballot measure elections which can directly influence legislation.
4. Educate Others: Share information with your community about the implications of ballot measures.
5. Monitor Legal Developments: Keep an eye on legal challenges and rulings that might affect the status of ballot measures.

As abortion access advocates canvas the state gathering signatures to get a ballot initiative in front of voters, Republican lawmakers in Arizona advanced an immigration enforcement referendum of their own. Both are likely to drive turnout in November's election, though figuring out exactly who that benefits is complicated.

This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, politics reporter Ben Giles, and national political correspondent Sarah McCammon.

The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our intern is Bria Suggs. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.

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Asma Khalid, Sarah McCammon, Ben Giles

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Tara
Hi, this is Tara, proud mom here. I am here in our nation's capital, Washington, DC, and I'm here today to attend a us naval officer promotion ceremony for my daughter Elizabeth. This podcast was recorded at 12:09 p.m.

Asma Khalid
Eastern time on Wednesday, June 12 of 2024.

Tara
Things may have changed by the time you hear this.

Asma Khalid
Congrats.

Sarah McCammon
Ah, proud momma moment.

Asma Khalid
Hey there. It's the NPR politics podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.

Sarah McCammon
I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.

Ben Giles
And I'm Ben Giles. I cover the campaign.

Asma Khalid
And Ben, a big welcome to you. I feel like listeners probably will recognize you in your voice.

Welcome, welcome. You are now officially a part of our NPR politics team.

Ben Giles
Thank you. So, so happy to be a part of this.

Asma Khalid
Very glad to have you.

Sarah McCammon
Welcome, Ben.

Asma Khalid
Well, today on the show, we are going to head down to Arizona where you are, because there are competing forces at play with ballot initiatives there. And, you know, we often talk on the show about issues of immigration and abortion access. But Ben, there in your state of Arizona, it seems like these very issues will literally be on the ballot. Four voters to decide on this November. Tell us what's going on.

Ben Giles
Right. Well, the first one that we've been, I think we've talked about before on this podcast is an abortion access ballot initiative. Now, I should note that that's not officially qualified for the ballot yet. There are still volunteers in the field gathering signatures to put a measure on the ballot that would enshrine access to abortion in the state constitution. It would allow abortions up to about 24 weeks of pregnancy, and then there would be some exceptions that would allow for abortions after those 24 weeks as well.

It's not a certainty yet, but they have done a great job so far of collecting signatures. As of about a month ago, they had a half a million signatures in the can. They need just shy of 400,000 signatures to qualify. Their goal, their stated goal is to gather a total of 800,000 signatures before a July deadline to qualify for the ballot. So it seems all but certain that this will be a choice that voters will have in Arizona come November. Now, there's another measure that's definitely going to be on the ballot because that was referred to the ballot by the republican controlled state legislature here, and that's an immigration measure that would make it a state crime to cross the US Mexico border, to cross from Mexico into the US, anywhere other than a legal port of entry. Now, that's already illegal.

But as we hear from Republicans in Arizona and border states across the country, we hear concerns that the federal government is not doing its job. And that is the justification here for Republicans to send this measure to the ballot because they say the federal government has created a problem. Arizona needs the means to help fix that problem. And that would be a measure very similar to Texas SB four, that would allow local law enforcement to crack down on people crossing the border.

Sarah McCammon
And, Ben, I'm guessing, and correct me if I'm wrong here, the reason with this abortion initiative that they want to get so many extra signatures is because a lot of these have been challenged in other states. Right. There's been a lot of pushback to getting these on the ballot. So they want to make sure they have plenty. Is that the strategy?

Ben Giles
Absolutely. That is always a part of the ballot initiative game in Arizona.

The republican controlled state legislature has made it easier and easier year after year to find ways to challenge the signatures that were gathered or challenge the legality of measures that are proposed by citizens and put on the ballot. So having a buffer of more than twice the number of signatures that you need to qualify is a fail safe against those expected legal challenges. But it's also, at this point, a bit of a show of force just to maybe deter some of those legal challenges from even being filed, because arguably, you could throw, if they get 800,000 signatures, you could throw half of them out and they'd still qualify. So it's a bit of an, I'll show you from abortion activists in terms of how many signatures they're aiming to gather for this measure.

Asma Khalid
So I want to talk about the politics here because it seems like on the surface, the abortion ballot measure would presumably benefit democrats. You mentioned the immigration ballot initiative put forth by republican lawmakers. So is the presumption there that it will benefit the Republican Party this November? And is that how you're seeing things? Track? I mean, it seems like these both are intended to boost voter turnout in a partisan way.

Ben Giles
Well, I think in the case of the abortion access initiative, boosting turnout is sort of a cherry on top of the situation for getting that passed in and of itself. It's viewed as a necessity here because we have currently in effect a 15 week abortion ban. And then it was also kind of given a shot in the arm earlier this year when the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that an 1864 near total abortion ban was actually the law of the land in Arizona that has since been repealed by the state legislature. But still, it's really sparked a fire about the conversation on abortion access in Arizona. So in and of itself, there is a need, the proponents of this measure will say, to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. And then there are a lot of democratic candidates, from President Joe Biden here to Congressman Ruben Gallego, running for us Senate, who are campaigning for and alongside the abortion ballot measure, because they do see it as a good through line for democratic campaigns. They see it as a winning issue, and they see associating with that as a winning message for their own campaigns. On the flip side, yes, republicans do view immigration as a key issue here in Arizona, where voters do feel like there is a problem at the border with the number of border crossings that are happening day to day here in Arizona. And they do feel like staking out a position of we're going to try locally to solve a problem that the federal government has created and failed to solve.

They do see that as a winning issue. But there's also concern, I think, from the business community and from latino voters who view this as very much like SB 1070, that infamous 2010 immigration law that also tried to create a local law enforcement mechanism to crack down on illegal border crossings. There's a concern that this could be a bit of a double edged sword and that, yes, it might drive republican turnout, but it also might drive turnout among groups who are against this immigration law and then might also vote for democratic candidates when they head to the polls in November.

Sarah McCammon
So I'm really curious to see what happens in Arizona, you know, with, as we've talked about, both of these issues going before voters. And as Ben said, you know, it's hard to tease out exactly who will be motivated by this immigration proposal. But we have heard, you know, for months, as we've been on the campaign trails, so many republican voters, in particular highlighting immigration as one of their top issues. So here we have really these two motivating issues on both sides of the aisle coming before voters in a single state. It'll be really fascinating.

Asma Khalid
I want to ask you about the effects we've seen so far when abortion has been put directly to voters in other states. What have we seen?

Sarah McCammon
Right. Democrats and abortion rights activists have been really excited about this option the past couple of years since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade because there's been a lot of energy around abortion. I mean, Ohio is a good example. Last year, the state voters pretty overwhelmingly approved an amendment protecting abortion rights that came after, you know, Ohios very restrictive abortion law had taken effect as a result of the Dobbs decision. It had prohibited most abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest. And those kinds of laws and the stories that stemmed from them really got voters attention.

Democrats know that, abortion rights activists know that. And so theyve really prioritized the past couple of years trying to get these kinds of ballot initiatives before voters, especially in important states like Arizona as well as Florida.

And so I think theres a lot of excitement about the potential here and its twofold. One, most of the advocates for these initiatives will say theyre very focused on abortion, specifically on preserving access or restoring access in this post Roe era. But at the same time, of course, political strategists are well aware that the polls say that key democratic voting groups like women voters of color and younger voters are especially concerned about the abortion issue. And so they realize this is an opportunity, too, to galvanize their base around other issues and candidates at the same time.

Asma Khalid
All right. Let's take a quick break, and we'll be back in a moment.

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Ben Giles
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Asma Khalid
And we're back. And Ben, you were saying earlier that it's not super clear cut just who this immigration ballot measure might motivate. But I do want to ask you a little bit more about this, because this immigration initiative is coming after we've seen, like, legislation in Congress on immigration just get holed up. You've seen this recent executive action by the president. It is an issue that we see time and again is a big vulnerability for President Biden. And it's hard to separate out the policies from the presidential politics at play because Arizona is a real competitive state.

Ben Giles
Yeah, but I do think Arizona voters are capable of having a really nuanced view of the border. They do view immigration as an issue in terms of, of the sheer volume of people who are attempting to cross over from Mexico into the US. But there also are traditionally conservative blocs of voters who, yes, see immigration as an issue, but also aren't for this ballot measure that was referred by republican lawmakers because of the state's troubled history with immigration measures in the past. Like I mentioned, SB 1070, that was a real black eye on the state of Arizona for a number of years, the business community saw that as a detriment to their bottom line to operating a business in Arizona. And they aren't in favor of dredging up that history with a ballot measure that opponents will argue will lead to the racial profiling of brown people in Arizona.

Asma Khalid
Sarah, I want to ask you a somewhat related question, because I know you were out covering former President Trump in Nevada the other day. It seems like he is devoting increasingly resources to try to chip away and gain a little bit more support with latino voters. What are you seeing?

Tara
Right.

Sarah McCammon
I mean, the campaign has touted the, I think, off cited statistic about some of the apparent growth in the latino vote for Trump in 2020 compared to previous years. They want to, to capitalize on that. And so, yes, you know, they announced over the weekend in Las Vegas, this is Nevada, a neighboring state to Arizona, which, of course, has a significant latino population, sort of a rebranded outreach effort. They're calling it Latino Americans for Trump. Used to be Latinos for Trump. Not clear how much they're investing in this campaign. The Trump campaign is very quiet about the number of staff they have, for example, in various areas. But they made this push in a state, again, with a very large latino population. And the messaging that they're using focuses on the idea of immigration being okay, but it has to be legal. And it was interesting because in the same breath, we heard Trump touting some of his kind of well worn anti immigrant rhetoric over the weekend at that same rally.

But I think the biggest push from the Trump campaign for latino voters is really in some ways not that different from one of the messages that they're sending to all voters, which is about the economy. They're focusing on economic issues, pocketbook issues that affect everybody, and arguing that former President Trump would improve economic opportunities for latino voters.

And again, this is a growing voting bloc, particularly in this part of the country. So it's one that both campaigns understand the importance of courting.

Asma Khalid
So, Ben, before we let you go, since you are here, I have to ask, because I'm always curious how presidential politics are playing out on certain key battleground states. Joe Biden won your state of Arizona, but by a really slim margin, right? Like around 10,000 votes in 2020. How are things looking this time for both Biden and Trump? I mean, does it seem like one person has a significant advantage at this moment?

Ben Giles
It looks like it's going to be another very close race.

It was certainly an upset for Biden to pull off Arizona in 2020. I think it might be a bit of a struggle given his unpopularity and given problems at the border, problems with immigration that are plaguing his administration and that his administration is taking a lot of blame for.

It will be a struggle to win Arizona again. But I know that Democrats aren't taking the state for granted despite his win four years ago. They are establishing a very hearty ground game here to try to convince voters that another four years of Biden is better than the alternative, basically.

Asma Khalid
All right, well, on that note, let's leave it there for today. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.

Sarah McCammon
I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.

Ben Giles
I'm Ben Giles. I also cover the campaign.

Asma Khalid
And thank you all, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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