Does Biden Have A "Red Line" On His Support For Israel?

This episode explores the dynamics of the Biden administration's support for Israel amidst escalating military actions in Gaza and the political implications as the U.S. election approaches.

1. Significant Increase in Civilian Casualties: Recent military actions in Gaza have led to a sharp rise in civilian deaths, attracting international condemnation.
2. U.S. Stance on Israel: Despite international backlash, the Biden administration maintains strong support for Israel, with limited public criticism.
3. Political Implications: The administration’s stance could have significant ramifications for the upcoming U.S. elections, particularly among young and progressive voters.
4. Potential Policy Shifts: Discussion on whether there might be a "red line" that could alter U.S. support or military aid to Israel, though no clear shifts are evident yet.
5. International Relations: The episode highlights differences in response from global leaders, with some calling for more decisive actions against Israel.

1. Introduction

Overview of recent events in Gaza and the escalating military actions by Israel. This sets the stage for the discussion on political implications. Chip Thomas: "Today on the podcast, the state of the Biden administration's support for Israel as Israel escalates their military campaign on Rafah in the Gaza Strip."

2. Detailed Analysis

Insight into the dire situation in Rafah and the U.S.'s cautious stance on Israel’s military operations. Greg Myrie: "Israel argues that Rafah was the last Hamas stronghold and they needed to defeat Hamas there."

3. International and Domestic Reactions

Examination of global and domestic reactions to the U.S.'s support for Israel, including potential political fallout. Asma Khalid: "We've seen Biden by and large support what has been going on, which I think raises the question of whether or not there's really any moment that would trigger a stance from this president to say, no, this is enough, too much."

1. Stay Informed: Regularly update yourself with credible news sources to understand the evolving geopolitical landscape.
2. Engage Politically: Participate in discussions and electoral processes to voice concerns about foreign policy.
3. Support Humanitarian Efforts: Consider contributing to NGOs that provide aid in conflict zones like Gaza.
4. Educational Outreach: Inform others about the complexities of international relations and conflict impacts.
5. Advocacy and Activism: Join or support groups advocating for peaceful resolutions and fair policies in conflict-ridden areas.

President Biden's steadfast commitment to Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas hasn't changed, even as the civilian death toll tops 35,000, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. That is in contrast to many of his fellow world leaders — and to many of his own voters.

This episode: White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram, White House correspondent Asma Khalid, and national security correspondent Greg Myre.

This podcast was produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.

People

Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu

Content Warnings:

None

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Chip Thomas
Hi, this is Chip Thomas.

I am at the Marsh Creek State park in Pennsylvania preparing for for my last open water training swim in the lake here before a 1 mile competition this coming Saturday, which happens to be my 71st birthday.

This podcast was recorded at 12:48 p.m. on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but as long as I have anything to say about it, I will still be swimming.

Happy birthday, Chip.

Unknown
Happy birthday.

Chip Thomas
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.

Unknown
And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House.

Greg Myrie
And I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security Today on the.

Chip Thomas
Podcast, the state of the Biden administration's support for Israel as Israel escalates their military campaign on Rafa in the Gaza Strip. Before we get into the politics of all of this, Greg, you're here with us. Tell me about what's been going on in Rafa just the last few weeks. I mean, this is the last major population center in Gaza. For context, the region is about 25 sq mi, right? It's like the size of Arlington, Virginia, or Newark, New Jersey. What's been going on there, you know, in the last several weeks of this war?

Greg Myrie
Yeah, Rafa is a very distinctive town. It's this sort of dusty, ragged place at the southern tip of Gaza on the border with Egypt. It's often been the only way for the residents of Gaza to get in and out of the territory. This crossing was controlled by Egypt, not by Israel. Now, after the Hamas attack back on October 7, Israel invades Gaza. It works its way north to south. So many of the civilians move south. They congregate in Rafa. The population goes from about 200,000 before the war to well over a million people. Many of them, they're in tent camps that have just emerged out of nowhere on the empty sandy lots around town.

Now, the US and the international community warned Israel against a major operation in Gaza because there are so many civilians concentrated there. But Israel argued that this was the last Hamas stronghold and they needed to defeat Hamas there. Now, Israel waited a while, but earlier this month, it took over the Rafah border, crossing with Egypt. And this was a limited operation. And since then it's been carrying out airstrikes in Gaza. And this has led many of those displaced Palestinians to flee Rafa, though there's really no place safe for them to go.

Chip Thomas
Right. Cause as you said, this was a north to south operation this whole time. And let's kind of bring it to this moment. Over the weekend, there was an airstrike that, according to israeli officials, targeted two Hamas leaders. That strike resulted in more than 40 Palestinians getting killed. I mean, this took place on Sunday. Walk us through exactly what you know and what happened.

Greg Myrie
So, deepa, there's still some claims and counterclaims that we're sorting through, but Israel has acknowledged carrying out an airstrike. It says it used a relatively small bomb to target some Hamas figures. But this strike either directly or indirectly set off a fire that raged through one of these tent camps and killed more than 40 people. It appears most of them are civilians. Now Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu is calling it a tragic accident, and he says Israel is investigating. Now, Israel's raised the possibility, but hasn't provided evidence that the airstrike may have ignited a secondary explosion, some weapons or some fuel, and that Hamas is often the case, is operating close to civilians. But what we do know for certain is we have another very large palestinian civilian death toll that comes from an israeli strike in Gaza that was packed with civilians seeking shelter and just provoked an international outcry.

Chip Thomas
Right. And this happened in those encampments that were where folks were seeking refuge, essentially.

Greg Myrie
Absolutely.

Unknown
And to your point, Greg, it has provoked certainly an international outcry. You've seen condemnation from a number of world leaders. I'm thinking of France's president Macron, who called for an immediate ceasefire. But notably here at the White House, it has been relatively silent publicly about this. You know, over the weekend, a spokesperson with the National Security Council said that Israel has a right to go after Hamas. They did describe the situation, the images, as being devastating and heartbreaking, but it did not echo any of the sort of national outcry we saw at other places. And then today I spoke with an administration official earlier, and what I was told is that they are deeply concerned about what happened over the weekend in Rafa. They are glad, they said, that the israeli military is going to be conducting an investigation of what transpired. What I was also told is that at this point they have seen no indication that this was a deliberate move to target civilians by the israeli military. You know, by and large, there have been these moments, I think, that really provoke a lot of concern from the international community again and again over the many months of this war. And we have seen time and again the Biden administration has stood very solidly behind Israel, you know, occasionally, I think, offering some moments of critique publicly, but that's not been the norm. We've seen Biden by and large support what has been going on, which I think raises the question of whether or not there's really any moment that would trigger a stance from this president to say, no, this is enough, too much.

We have not seen any indications of that.

Chip Thomas
And asma, I mean, speaking of one of those moments of critique, right. I mean, there was this pretty significant, I would say, an interview that Biden did on CNN a couple weeks ago that took place earlier this month, and he had said, you know, on camera that if there were to be any kind of large scale operation into Rafa, which Netanyahu, the israeli prime minister, had been talking about, that there would be some kind of limit potentially of us military aid to Israel. But from what we've heard from, you know, administration officials, including folks like Jake Sullivan, John Kirby, these smaller strikes don't necessarily add up to that large scale operation that they're sort of looking out for. I mean, the term they keep using is they're warning Israel against smashing into Rafa. Right. We've heard that over and over again, but it doesn't really necessarily amount to that scale that they're sort of warning Israel against. Is that right?

Unknown
I mean, I did explicitly ask an administration official today if this strike was indeed indicative of the Rafa invasion that this administration has been warning Israel against. And what I was told is this was not that, that this was an airstrike, and it was tragic nonetheless. But they have not seen, to your point, the israeli military goes smashing into Rafa. I mean, my question for you, Greg, is what does that amount to? Whether or not the israeli military goes in bit by bit by bit and you see civilian casualties mount or whether it is a full ground invasion. Does it really matter if the end result is just devastating civilian casualties?

Greg Myrie
Well, the answer, I guess, would be no, it wouldn't matter if you get, especially if you end up with the same result. And the Israelis, I think, have certainly taken a different approach in Rafa. They have not stormed in with an all out frontal invasion as we've seen in some of the other places. Theyve clearly taken some of this criticism into account.

Nonetheless, they say their goal is to eliminate Hamas in the Rafa area. Several thousand Hamas fighters are still believed to be there and were seeing it perhaps in a step by step basis rather than in one all out assault.

Chip Thomas
And just to point out, I mean, one thing that we continually hear from the White House is that Israel does have a right to go after Hamas. They are continuing their strong stance on that and their support for Israels response here. So thats something weve heard pretty consistently.

All right. We're going to take a quick break and more in a moment.

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And we're back. Asma, based on what you've been reporting, I mean, I know we talked about this, but do you see a point at which President Biden might reconsider support for Israel and their military campaign? I mean, we haven't seen any evidence of that up until this point. But the way things are going, especially when you consider that the election is five months away, I mean, what do you think of that?

Unknown
I would think, deepa, we've been asking this iteration of this question for many months, and we've seen really no major movement from President Biden. You know, whether or not you see action from the International criminal Court, right. Whether or not you see other states like Norway, Ireland and Spain just today officially recognizing palestinian statehood. You have not seen significant movement from President Biden. He has, you know, expressed, I would say, moments of frustration with how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is conducting this war. You have increasingly seen, I think, moments where this White House is willing to publicly offer some degrees of criticism. But I think a lot of this comes back to who President Biden is at his core. He has long held a deep connection to the state of Israel, both personally and politically. And, you know, I think the challenge for Biden is that even domestically, you could argue politically, even his own party has shifted a bit. But he has not moved on this issue. And so you're seeing more democratic lawmakers who are willing to publicly criticize how this war is being conducted, who are calling, I think, for greater action. But you have not yet seen a monumental shift from this White House.

Chip Thomas
Yeah. And Greg, I mean, as Aso pointed out, this is coming at a time when other world leaders, French President Macron, for example, have become far more outspoken, especially when you compare that language to what Joe Biden is saying. How do you see that playing out? I mean, are you anticipating other world leaders joining, you know, where Macron is standing and does that kind of alienate Biden in a way?

Greg Myrie
Well, he's certainly been out there on his own, even compared to a lot of european leaders and other countries that are supportive of Israel. And the point, I would just add, is that Israel has, has what it needs to carry out this operation. So even if Biden were to go further and announce that he was cutting off more weapons to Israel, that wouldn't affect anything in the near term or the short term or what Israel is doing in Gaza, it would be a concern for Israel in the longer term. They depend very heavily on us weaponry.

If they were to engage in a full fledged fight with Hezbollah on their northern border, they would need to be resupplied and that us support is critical in the longer term. But what we're seeing in Gaza, Israel has, has what it needs to continue this operation.

Chip Thomas
Yeah. And to bring in the politics of all of this for a second here. I mean, asma, you and I have talked about this basically since October. Foreign policy hasn't really been a known decider of presidential elections in the past. But I think a lot of folks that we talk to on the road and out in the country see this very differently. Right. And it keeps coming up. You were just in Georgia speaking with a lot of voters. It came up repeatedly. It certainly comes up with a lot of young voters I speak to who have not put their phones down. You know, they are still seeing what's going on in the Middle east, and it's really weighing in on their decision to vote or not in November. I'm curious, you know, how much the administration, from your point of view, is maybe, you know, gauging that, paying attention to that and how concerned they should be about this potential lack of enthusiasm.

Unknown
Yeah, I mean, I will say broadly, you don't get a sense from this administration that they are particularly concerned about young voters splinting off en masse because of the war in Gaza.

And I would say that that doesn't really drive to, to your point with what I've heard, anecdotally, when you talk to young voters on the ground, particularly progressive young voters of color, the war comes up unsolicited in interview after interview. I was rather struck by this in Georgia because I did not anticipate it coming up as frequently as it did. And one of the things I noticed is that many of these young voters consume a lot of news on social media. And so they told me that they have never seen a situation like theirs where they are basically seeing elements of this war being live streamed. And so as a result, because the United States has been offering rather unconditional support, they feel personally culpable and personally responsible for this death. And I was really struck by this deep because I think it is very hard for any politician to win over voters when they feel morally responsible for something. I mean, there's a young man I met, his name is Adrian Consonant. He's 24 years old, a young black man. And he said to me, there is something so unsettling about seeing a child that is no longer breathing. And I asked him, like, what can you do? What can Joe Biden do to make you support him? Because he was a voter for Joe Biden for years ago. And he said, I just need to feel comfortable with putting Joe Biden back in power. And these moments happen, and then they hear, you know, not sort of a widespread condemnation from this White House. I will say it doesn't necessarily make some of these young voters feel more comfortable.

A big question, though, does remain about, you know, how much of a factor will be because, as you say, foreign policy is not routinely an issue that many voters vote on. I will also say, though, deepa, this is something I think, in terms of the access on social media, that is rather unprecedented. And we have not seen a moment like this politically.

Chip Thomas
Greg, I want to bring you back into the fold here because I want to talk about what happens from here. I mean, this all happened on Sunday.

Details are still unfolding. Investigations are happening. But what happens next? I mean, what are you watching for?

Greg Myrie
Well, deepa, it appears increasingly clear Israel is expanding its military operation in Rafa despite all this international criticism, both at the government level and at the human personal level. Israel, in fact, said today that its military is continuing to operate in the Rafa. It didn't provide details, but again, it's been very clear all along the goal is to clear out the remaining Hamas fighters there.

Israel's noted it came under rocket attack in recent days from Hamas, evidence that Hamas is still fighting back and therefore they need to continue with the israeli operation. We're getting reports from our NPR colleagues on the ground that Israel is carrying out more strikes in Rafa today. They do appear to be intensifying. And our colleagues have also spoken with Palestinians in Gaza who've reported seeing israeli tanks operating in and around the city. So Israel may not have launched a major all out attack, but we do seem to be seeing this step by step operation in Rafa that continues to expand.

Chip Thomas
Continues to expand. And something we will continue to come back to both of you for as we keep reporting on this. We're going to leave it there for today. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.

Unknown
And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House.

Greg Myrie
And I'm Greg Myrie. I cover now national security.

Chip Thomas
And thank you for listening to the NPR politics podcast.

Unknown
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