Deep Dive: How Kamala Harris is Polling Against Donald Trump So Far... and What To Watch For, with Spencer Kimball | Ep. 847

This episode analyzes the current polling dynamics between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election, focusing on swing states and demographic shifts.

1. Kamala Harris has managed to regain some Democratic and independent voters post-debate, enhancing competitiveness in key states.
2. Harris's polling shows a mixed response among younger voters, with some polls indicating a less enthusiastic alignment compared to Biden's previous numbers.
3. Swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia remain critical, with Harris needing significant gains to counter Trump’s lead.
4. The upcoming Democratic convention and VP announcement are seen as potential boosts for Harris’s campaign.
5. Voter demographics, particularly minority and younger voters, play a crucial role in the shifting political landscape.

1: Introduction

Megyn Kelly introduces the episode’s focus on Kamala Harris’s polling against Donald Trump, mentioning key swing states. Megyn Kelly: "Welcome to this deep dive special episode."

2: Polling Insights

Spencer Kimball provides detailed insights into current polls and voter trends affecting the Harris vs. Trump matchup. Spencer Kimball: "Harris seems to have stemmed the tide from the debate losses, bringing the race back to competitiveness."

3: Demographic Analysis

Discussion on how demographic shifts, particularly among younger voters, are influencing the election dynamics. Spencer Kimball: "It looks like they're rebuilding that Obama coalition."

4: Strategic Implications

Exploration of strategic moves by both campaigns, including potential VP picks and their impacts. Spencer Kimball: "It's going to depend on that VP pick."

5: Conclusion

Summation of the key points discussed and what to watch for as the election approaches. Megyn Kelly: "Both are going to have to fight very hard and every vote is going to count."

• Stay informed on swing state dynamics and understand their critical role in election outcomes.
• Observe how demographic shifts, especially among younger and minority voters, impact polling results.
• Watch for key events such as conventions and VP announcements, which can shift momentum in campaigns.
• Engage in discussions about the electoral process to better understand its complexities and influences.
• Analyze polling data critically, considering various factors that might affect its accuracy and relevance.

Megyn Kelly is joined by Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, to discuss Emerson's new poll in swing states looking at Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump, how Trump still outperforms Harris in most states, whether Harris is able to perform better than Biden did, the key constituencies of minority voters and young voters, the potential polling impact of Harris being anointed by top Dems rather than the American voters, which party has the momentum now and will in the next few weeks, whether Trump or Harris have the upperhand in 2024, and more.

People

Megyn Kelly, Spencer Kimball

Companies

Emerson College

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

Spencer Kimball

Content Warnings:

None

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Megyn Kelly
Welcome to the Megyn Kelly show live on SiriusXM Channel 111 every weekday at noon east.

Hey, everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to the Megyn Kelly SHOw and this deep dive special episode. Kamala Harris has all but secured her party's nomination using the magic democratic wanda now that President Joe Biden has dropped out of the presidential race and we are starting to learn what Americans think of her, her candidacy, as she faces former President Donald Trump. A brand new poll from Emerson College out today gives us one of our first looks at how Kamala Harris is faring versus Donald Trump in key swing states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Here to break it down for us is Spencer Kimball. He's the executive director of Emerson College polling protein bars can be chewy and dense, or so chalky that they crumble apart in your hand. But I want to tell you about the launch of magic spoon treats. You probably know magic spoon for their popular high protein cereal, right? That has more than 75,005 star reviews. Well, Magic Spoon has turned their cereal now into high protein treats that are light, crispy and taste just like those classic crunchy cereal bars. Magic Spoon's brand new treats come in six deliciously nostalgic flavors, including marshmallow, chocolatey, peanut butter, blueberry birthday cake, yum. And strawberry milkshake. Magic Spoon treats are a tasty time machine. Back to your childhood. You likely know Magic Spoon cereal and now we are excited to bring you the news about the launch of their treats. Scoop up these new crispy, crunchy, protein packed treats right now with 10% off just by going to magicspoon.com mk or use the promo code MK when you place your order@magicspoon.com.

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Spencer, welcome back to the show. Great to see you, Megan.

Spencer Kimball
Thanks for having me.

Megyn Kelly
All right, so what's the top line information on how she's doing so far a couple days in?

Spencer Kimball
Well, what we saw last week where the Democrats or independents were breaking more towards Trump, and she seems to have stemmed the tide of the debate lost and bringing the race back to competitiveness, specifically in Pennsylvania and in Georgia.

Megyn Kelly
So she, as far as I understand, basically got the Democrats back to pre debate numbers for Biden. The collapse from that colossal performance has been rectified, at least according to your poll.

Spencer Kimball
Yeah, that's what we were seeing since the debate. We saw Trump picking up one to two points in each one of these states every week. So remember, last time we spoke, Arizona was at seven points. Georgia was getting up to six points. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were up to five points. And we were starting to look at what is President Biden's pathway to victory. And it was a very small window that he had. Now the race has been shaken up a little bit, and we see a couple of different pathways with Harris on the top of the ticket.

Megyn Kelly
Okay, so it, it looks like the following five swing states.

Let's see. She's trailing Trump in four of them and tied in one of them. In Arizona, he's up over Kamala, five points, 49 to 44. In Georgia, he's up over Harris by two points, 48 to 46.

In Michigan, he's up 1.46 to 45. In Pennsylvania, he's up two points, 48 to 46. And in Wisconsin, they're tied 47% for each person. So which of those dates has been affected the most by her subbing in for Biden?

Spencer Kimball
I would say Georgia, because last time we spoke, I thought Georgia was off the table for the Democrats. And that really put a lot of pressure on that blue wall to be able to hold both Arizona or to hold Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania if the Democrats lose both Georgia and Arizona.

So Georgia now being back at two points, is a lot more competitive than the five to six points that we were seeing a couple of weeks ago. And that's a key state if the Democrats are able to get to 270.

Megyn Kelly
And who's driving these increased numbers for Harris? Because as I read the write up of this, you pin it to some extent, at least on younger voters. But we've spent the past two days looking at other polls and numbers that show she actually wasn't doing very well with younger voters, which is confusing.

Spencer Kimball
Well, it's going to take, it almost looks like they're rebuilding that Obama coalition that was kind of falling apart over the last couple of months. If you remember, in 2008, Obama wins that 18 to 29 year old vote by about 30 points. And since 2008, the Democrats have done a pretty good job with that 18 to 29 year old group. What we were seeing over the last few months is that group was pretty split in some polls. We saw that even leading towards Trump.

But now we see that it jumped back over the last couple of days where some of those underlying data points now it's not the same in every state. So in Wisconsin, for example, we might see a little bit more struggle with the younger voter, but that Trump actually struggles with the older voter a little bit more in Wisconsin. But generally speaking, the younger voter has come back to a greater extent than where they were when President Biden was on the top of the ticket, even in March and April prior to the debate performance.

Megyn Kelly
Interesting. I mean, he was very, very old, is very, very old. And we saw Democrats saying from the beginning, some two thirds of them, he's too old to be president. But I'm going to give you this, and this is not just Harry Entin of CNN. This has been reflected in some polling since she became the likely person to possibly replace him and then since he dropped out and endorsed her. We've been seeing lots of polls showing the young people are disillusioned and are leaning either not to voting or more towards republicans. But here's a report. We aired this sound bite yesterday of Harry Entin on CNN.

Harry Entin
Joe Biden won voters under the age of 35 by 21 points. What do we see with Kamala Harris? Well, she's still ahead, but the margin here is significantly less than what we saw with Joe Biden back in 2020. She's up by just nine points. You may make the argument that was better than Biden was doing before he got out of, but compared to that democratic baseline where Democrats have historically in presidential elections at least this century, been carrying that young vote by 20 or more percentage points, she is way down from that. Democrats say they're more motivated to turn out after Biden left the race. Well, we do see a significant portion of Democrats who say, yes, 39%. The thing I was interested in was it disproportionately younger voters who said that they were more likely to turn out or more motivated to turn out to. And what we see here is it's 42%, not a big difference between 42 and 39%. So this idea, again, that the vice president has unique potential to dig in and get young voters to turn out, John, it's just not there in the numbers, despite all the Internet memes that are going around.

Megyn Kelly
Ok, can you speak to that, Spencer? Because it sounds like the Emerson poll does not jive with that.

Spencer Kimball
Yeah, I would contradicts some of that analysis and that the younger voter is the minority voter. It's black and hispanic votes that are traditionally Democrats, and they're the ones who are sitting on the sideline, not with Biden. They're more likely to come back in line with a Harris on the ticket. And that's what we see in our numbers.

It's not necessarily the white vote that's coming back. It's those minority votes that shoot younger.

Megyn Kelly
People who are a minority. Is that what you're saying?

Spencer Kimball
Yeah, because minorities are skewed towards the younger demographic. They're the newer voters. Hispanic population are disproportionately younger than the older Hispanics because younger ones are a larger population and they're more likely to be registered to vote. So that's a group, same thing. The black population is a little bit more dispersed over the ages, but the minority groups generally are on the younger side and tend to vote Democrat. And what we've seen is they've essentially come back into the fold for Harris to some extent. Not to that full extent what we saw with Biden in 2020, but certainly stronger than what we saw just a few weeks ago.

Megyn Kelly
Can you put a number on it? You know, he was saying they voted younger people 21% for Joe Biden in 2020, and that right now they were leaning towards Harris by only nine percentage points, saying that 9% was higher than Joe Biden was, you know, a couple of weeks ago versus 2020. But it wasn't gangbusters. It wasn't up to the 2030 that people like Obama could get in the Democrat party. So can you put a number on what the surge is in these states or just overall based on your polling?

Spencer Kimball
Well, I would agree somewhat to that analysis. It's definitely lower than the 30 or 20%, but it really depends on the state. So, like the state of Georgia, about 20% of their voters are 18 to 29. But in Pennsylvania, it's only like 13% of those voters. So to win in Georgia, 60 40 amongst younger voters, that's important. If you're winning 55 45, that's a big ten point difference amongst 20% of the electorate. So each state is unique. The midwest is an older population where you're not going to see as many of those young votes. But that young vote is really important in Georgia, maybe even in North Carolina. And the next time we take a look, because that's where younger folks are moving and living, and we'll see if those numbers increase. What we were able to see with essentially what Obama was able to do, let's say in Virginia, we saw that youth vote drop over the last couple of months. Obama had built that up 1216 years ago and pretty much handled it.

I would also say that, yeah, we talked about the 18 to 29 year olds and that is the youth vote. But where I see the Democrats are really struggling is the 30 to 39 year olds. The people that came in with Obama and then are leaving right now. The Democrats, they're not voting at the same propensity. And so that's where Harris is going to have to bring back more of the vote. Yeah, she's got to win that youth vote and she'll win it to some extent.

But then the other vote as well, and I don't mind to mean to jump around, is the new voters. The new voters have come in and they're breaking for Trump. And we haven't seen that since 72 with Nixon. So if new voters start breaking and they're being registered and coming in for the Republicans, that would shake up, obviously, the 18 to 29 year olds. But we do have to go state by state and look at, well, you know, look at Michigan. Those younger voters in Michigan, they're not necessarily going to Trump, but they're going to third parties. And in our polling, you can see that kind of pretty easily between the head to head ballot test. And then when we add those third parties, and to me, that would be a problem for Harris. She needs that youth vote out in Michigan to come out for her. And we'll see over. And it's going to take some time. This is a new candidacy, though. She did run for a cup of coffee in 2020. Not many people remember any of that. And so she'll get out there. Voters will have to start hearing some messaging and then we'll see how it shakes out after Labor Day.

Megyn Kelly
A couple of other pieces of data, the economist slash YouGov poll, registered voters, came out yesterday that showed Trump with 44, Harris with 41. That poll was taken during the crossover the 21st through the 23rd and Biden.

Biden. Well, I guess it was Pelosi. I don't know. Is it, was it, what was, hold on, I gotta go back and look at my calendar now. So that 21st is 23rd, is this past Sunday through Tuesday?

Yes. A Trump up three.

And their poll before that mid July showed Trump up to over Biden. The other thing that's in here, of course, is the assassination attempt, right? Like, I don't even know how you pull for that. But that's another massive event that's factored in, I guess, to some extent in these numbers. So what I'm gleaning right now is these numbers are all over the board. You know, one, one day we get a lesson that she's not exciting to younger voters. The next day we get a lesson that actually she is kind of exciting to some younger voters who are not into Joe Biden. And the overall numbers seem to, I think in every poll I've seen show Trump leading by a couple over Kamala, except for one, maybe two. I've only seen one that shows Kamala Harris over Trump. I like. What does it mean?

Spencer Kimball
Well, those national numbers are very important in my opinion because the Democrats need to win the national vote. So seeing that Trump still has, as you mentioned, two to three point lead in those national numbers, we're also seeing it reflected in the states. Remember, Arizona is a state where Trump loses by a couple of votes and he's up by five points. Georgia again, a state that he lost by a couple of votes. He's up by two. Pennsylvania, he loses by a point. Michigan, he loses by a couple of points. Now he's up. So nationally he lost last time by four, four and a half. Now he's up two to three. And you see a little bit of that residual down here at the state levels. And as that national number changes over time, maybe, maybe not. It hasn't changed too much in about eight years.

We'll see if voters switch and jump on. But I think the biggest takeaway is that Trump is still leading. Harris at this time in the state level and then obviously in these other polls at the national level.

Megyn Kelly
Spencer, when you were on last, you explained to us why we should care about that national number, why we shouldn't just be obsessed with the electoral college, the swing state votes. Can you explain that again for audience members who missed it?

Spencer Kimball
Spencer sure. That national number, in my opinion, is a barometer of what's going to happen at the state level. So if we look back in 2016, Clinton wins nationally by about two points. But at the state level, Trump is able to take it by 40, 50,000 votes. In 2020, Biden gets that national number up to four and a half percent, and now he's able to take those state numbers by about 40, 45,000 votes. Now we're into 2024. This is the first time Trump has been up nationally in any of these polls. So it'll be interesting to see if these state numbers hold where maybe it's not a 10,000 vote difference. It might be a little bit higher in some of these states at this time. So that's why it's important to look at that national number. To me, the Democrats need to win the national number because of states like New York and California, which traditionally vote pretty heavy for the Democrats and give them a, like a five to 7 million vote advantage just in those two states, and then the Republicans have to carry it back. It's a little different this cycle with Florida being turning more red, but it's still an important number for all of us to consider. And then I just.

Megyn Kelly
Because if you see low numbers in New York and California in terms of turnout for the Democrats, it suggests to you there's a lack of enthusiasm in the Democratic Party nationwide.

Spencer Kimball
Yeah, maybe a lower tide. And this is what we saw back in 2016 when the results were coming in, it was a little easier. Back in 2016, 2020, the results were a little tougher to follow. But in 16, you could see those early. Kentucky, Indiana, those states were three, four points higher than the polls. And then it was a rising tide around the entire country. And so as we look at that national poll, if Harris is able to bring that back to even or take the lead, then I think the Democrats have a chance. But if the Republicans are leading the national poll, it's hard to imagine how the Democrats will be able if they're picking up states like California and New York, still by 20 plus points, where their pathway is going to be. But with Harris on the ticket now, there is at least an angle, because, remember, the Democrats lost three electoral votes because of redistricting. So Biden's vote goes from 306 to 303 without even an election happening. And those three electoral votes are really big. That's like Delaware or Vermont changing to republican. And so the map is more in favor of Trump. And that's why when we were talking last time and saying, hey, if Georgia and Arizona, why was it so important this time? As opposed to. Because now you've lost those three electoral votes. So now any one of those blue states, you don't have to knock down two blue states, you only need to knock down one blue state because of the redistricting. And so that's another factor which is different this cycle for us to keep an eye on.

Megyn Kelly
So we're still in late July, Kamala Harris still has the convention, which will continue the, quote, coronation of her. And she has the announcement of her running mate, which should provide a further boost to her numbers if she chooses somebody acceptable. And, you know, some of these maybe the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, who people are looking at very closely, obviously, swing state. So in your experience, do conventions and the announcement of a running mate provide a decent boost to a candidate? And is it sustainable? Does it last?

Spencer Kimball
Well, just last week, obviously, Trump announced his running mate, but then you had Biden dropping out, and that took a little bit of that momentum away from what the Republicans were doing at their convention.

Obviously, the Democrats have their plan. They're going to try to create momentum and move the needle in their direction. But the Republicans are going to come out with some messaging as well and try to circumvent some of that. And that's going to be interesting to watch over the next four or five weeks as they have to redefine the campaign between these new candidates, or at least between Harris and Trump. And that's going to be a challenge. And we'll see what the messaging is over over that time. And then from there, it'll kind of get into a groove, I presume, on what we're going to be talking about in the fall.

Megyn Kelly
Is there any way of knowing through polls whether there's any backlash to the way this was done within the Democrat party? You know, that it really was done just by the elites deciding it would be Kamala Harris. And even though the messaging from Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries continues to say ground up, ground up, not top down, people know. So is that a factor or no? Is that just a media story?

Spencer Kimball
We'll see. Again, these things take time for people to kind of, you know, what if it was one of their candidates that didn't get the nomination and maybe that candidate becomes the VP, in which case that will, you know, trying to end some of those sour grapes. But at this point, it looks like the Democrats have kind of rallied around Harris. In our polling, about 80% of Democrats in each one of these states wanted Harris. 1015 percent preferred somebody else. So there could be a little backlash on that within the party. But the idea there is to get them all unified against Trump.

The one issue here is that Trump's favorability is actually stronger than Harris's in a lot of these states. So it's gonna be an interesting play. I don't know if that same playbook that the Democrats have used for the last couple of cycles against Trump works as well this cycle.

But obviously time will tell.

Megyn Kelly
I know it's strange to think about because what could they possibly say about Donald Trump that hasn't been said already? You know, what, where she's not exactly fresh meat. You know, she's been the vice president for four years, but she's a lot fresher. You know, her, all of her policy statements and gaffes and so on will be coming back in a very forceful way. You can't really do that to Trump as much, or at least it's not going to have the same effect because people lived it.

Spencer Kimball
Yeah, I would agree with you on that. I mean, how much more on Donald Trump could be out there? Harris is now going to be attacked in ways that she hasn't been before. And now we'll see how she responds to some of her policies and some of those ideas that she has out there and then obviously having to defend this administration's positions on some of the issues of the day. So right now, it's a honeymoon here.

Megyn Kelly
So there's been a debate since he dropped and endorsed her on whether the Republicans message has been, it's not the person, it's the policies. It's, that's, that's the problem. That's the reason you shouldn't vote Dem, because it's not the person, it's the policies. But what you're, what you seem to be saying is so far it actually was the person for at least, you know, some decent share of swing state voters. It was Joe Biden.

Spencer Kimball
I, yeah. Especially the younger vote, the female vote and the minority vote. Those were three major constituents that were leaving Biden and they weren't necessarily going to Trump. They were going to, third parties are not going to vote at all. But we could see the fallout in these numbers every week.

She's been able to bring that group back in, but remember, they're still trailing. So she'll need a bit of a game changer to continue to get this momentum and then get over Trump in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, those are states that the Democrats need to win in order to get to 270.

Megyn Kelly
So can we talk about that? Because last time you were on, we talked about how it wasn't looking so great for the Democrats. This is with Biden in the rust belt and in those sort of blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And now there's been buzz about how that may or may not be true for Harris. She's better than Biden in those states probably, but she's going to do, she needs to focus not on those states but on the Sunbelt, which as far as I understand is Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. Is that like, can you walk me through how this calculus goes and whether it's a good bet for them?

Spencer Kimball
Yeah, it's interesting because it's going to depend on that vp pick. Does she go with Mark Kelly and try to bring Arizona back into the fold or does she end up going with maybe a Shapiro or Roy Cooper out of North Carolina, try to bring that back into the fold. But right now it looks like Arizona is not all that competitive. It's leaning towards Trump. And so with that, Biden or the Democrats are at 292 in their electoral votes. Nevada has been a state, the silver state has been leaning towards the Republicans. And so that's something to also keep an eye on because there are six electoral votes. And while that doesn't necessarily end it for the Dems, it definitely puts a lot of pressure on them because now you have Pennsylvania. That becomes a battleground.

If the Democrats lose Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, Trump wins. If before last week when we were talking, Georgia was more red and if Georgia had turned red, now it's like any one of those states, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, any one of those states, that turn would cost the Democrats and give Trump back the White House. And so keeping an eye on Georgia and seeing if Harris is able to kind of create more energy in Atlanta in that Stacey Abrams magic that she almost had, but that seems to have been lost down there. So we're going to see if it comes back. North Carolina is a state that they're talking about coming back into play. I thought North Carolina was the furthest away. It was about like seven points for Trump. So we're going to see if the governor, if they go with him out of North Carolina, CooPEr if that brings that, that's 16 electoral votes, that would change the map because right now it's leaning red.

And so each one of these has the pluses and minuses. But what you're looking at is a field where the Democrats are on a little bit of defense, having to defend all of these states. And if any of Arizona goes and Georgia goes, then it's really a tough map. But if the Democrats with Harris are able to get Georgia back in blue, then there's still that pathway. If they carry the midwest, but the.

Megyn Kelly
Balance, three and a half months.

Spencer Kimball
The balance is you're giving up the midwest.

Megyn Kelly
So. Right. Exactly. Trump's fighting hard for those states. Now. We got three and a half months to go. I know. I won't hold you to this because it's just a, it's just a guess at this point. We don't know, but it's an informed guess.

Who would you rather be, Trump or Harris? And how would you place the odds of Trump winning?

Spencer Kimball
Oh, I think you'd rather be Trump. Harris is coming off the bench right now replacing the starter. Right. You had Joe Biden, he was the president, and you're like, yeah, we're going to put the starter down here for the second half. We're going to bring in our bench player and we're going to have her take over.

That's a risky move. I mean, she was brought on the ticket to balance the ticket. You know, there's a reason why these vps are brought on generally. It's not to necessarily become the next president. So we'll see if she's up for that challenge of the presidential timber that she didn't really have to go through the vetting process of the nominating contest. And we'll see what happens now that we're in the major leagues and then obviously her vice presidential candidate, how that might impact the race. But at this point, I think the Republicans, they're not as strong as they were a week and a half ago, but I still think that Trump's got an advantage at this time.

Megyn Kelly
Is it, was it like 60 40, 52 48, what would you, where would you put it?

Spencer Kimball
We're social sciences. We'll go with 95% confidence because that's where the polls are and then we'll see if it changes.

Megyn Kelly
Excellent. Spencer, thank you so much. Love talking to you, Megan.

Spencer Kimball
It's my pleasure. Thanks for having us.

Megyn Kelly
So interesting, right. The Republicans do not have this in the bag and the race has changed dramatically. They both are going to have to fight very hard and every vote is going to count.

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