Biden's Rough "Big Boy" Night, Elites' Whisper Campaign, and Trump's Polling Advantage, with Michael Knowles and Spencer Kimball | Ep. 836

This episode discusses the political turmoil surrounding President Joe Biden's reelection campaign, internal Democratic conflicts, and former President Donald Trump's advantages in current polling.

1. President Biden is facing significant internal and public challenges regarding his reelection campaign.
2. There is a notable shift in media coverage, becoming more critical of Biden while highlighting Trump's advantages.
3. Democratic Party insiders are increasingly concerned about Biden's public appearances and their impact on his electability.
4. Pollster Spencer Kimball provides insights on how Trump's numbers are holding strong in key battleground states.
5. The episode discusses potential strategies for Biden to regain footing in the polls and within his party.

1. Introduction

Megyn Kelly introduces the topic and sets the stage for a detailed discussion on the political landscape surrounding Biden's campaign. Megyn Kelly: "President Biden's reelection campaign remains alive... Is it on life support? Depends on who you ask."

2. Democratic Party's Internal Conflicts

Discussion on the Democratic Party's internal conflicts and the elite's efforts to influence Biden's decision-making. Michael Knowles: "I think those Democrat elites are some bad dudes, and I think they run with some bad boys."

3. Media's Role

Analyzes the media's role in shaping public perception of Biden's presidency and its potential impact on his reelection campaign. Megyn Kelly: "It's amazing to watch the news media do actual reporting on this president."

4. Voter Sentiment and Polling

Spencer Kimball discusses current polling data and voter sentiment, highlighting Trump's advantages in key states. Spencer Kimball: "The takeaway from the debate is that Trump either gained ground or stayed the same in those six, seven swing states that we're looking at."

1. Stay Informed: Regularly check multiple news sources for the latest updates on political developments.
2. Engage in Civil Discourse: Discuss political issues respectfully with others to foster a better understanding of different perspectives.
3. Participate in Polls: Engage in polls to ensure your opinions are part of the broader political discourse.
4. Educate Others: Share accurate information with peers to combat misinformation.
5. Vote: Participate in elections to have a direct impact on leadership decisions.

Megyn Kelly is joined by Michael Knowles, host of The Daily Wire's "Michael Knowles Show,” to talk about Biden’s “big boy” press conference last night, his confusion about Zelensky and Putin and Trump and Harris, how the elites and establishment want him out but he won't listen, why Biden won't leave the race, how the press conference wasn't bad enough to force him to leave, what the establishment media is focused on now, prominent left-wing elites leaking to the media instead of publicly making a statement urging Biden to step aside, Biden's odd habit of whispering suddenly, and more. Then Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, joins to discuss the impact the debate had on the polling in certain states like Georgia and Arizona, the dire polling averages for the Biden campaign right now, why Biden's depressed support in New York and California matter, what states Biden and Trump need to prioritize, if a new Democratic candidate replacing Biden could beat Trump, the importance of name recognition in polling, and more.

People

Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Michael Knowles, Spencer Kimball

Companies

None

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

Michael Knowles, Spencer Kimball

Content Warnings:

None

A
Welcome to the Megyn Kelly show live on SiriusXM channel 111 every weekday at noon east.

Hey, everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to the Megyn Kelly show and Happy Friday.

President Biden's reelection campaign remains alive.

Mm hmm. Is it on life support?

Depends on who you ask.

Mister Biden once again sending a message last night to Democrats that he is not going anywhere during his much hyped big boy press conference. But that has not stopped the behind the scenes plotting against him, which seems to be growing by the minute. The Democratic Party is an all out civil war.

Axios reports about very connected Democrats, mostly veterans of the Obama and Clinton administrations, plotting hourly to get Joe Biden to withdraw and to do it quickly.

I saw a panicked segment on MSNBC last night. It's fun to watch some of those channels on nights like that where the one thing the anchor and both far left guests agreed on, Psaki was one of them, was, this needs to end. It needs and quickly. This can't go on. This is terrible for us. And I think they're right. It's true.

CNN has some of the most devastating new leaks. It really is amazing. It's amazing to watch the news media do actual reporting on this president. It's like I said this yesterday, but it's like a window into how things could have been had you had an honest media, you know, holding the powerful to account irrespective of party. But don't get used to it because they will 100% go back to the way they used to be. Just as soon as they settle on a nominee, they will get behind that nominee. They will lose all skepticism. And if Trump wins, the skepticism will magically come back. It'll magically come back instantly.

One of President Biden's own cabinet secretaries. This is to CNN. It's really stunning. It's believable, but just still shocking. Not courageous enough to go on the record.

Willing to admit that they are uncertain of Mister Biden's condition because they see him so rarely revealing that the last full cabinet meeting took place on October 2, that's nine months ago, before Halloween.

To whoever this cabinet secretary is, why are you only telling us this now?

And the worst part is anonymous leakers also telling CNN that when the president does hold cabinet meetings, it's customary for cabinet officials to be required to submit their answers to the questions he's going to be asking of them in advance.

So they're saying the staff will come to the cabinet officials and say the president's going to come to you about 25 minutes in, and this is what he's going to ask you. And please give us now a list of bullet points that you will be submitting so the president can see and advance and understand them. Obviously. And I, it could go both ways. Perhaps they're telling the cabinet officials what questions the president will ask because it's obvious the president is not thinking of anything contemporaneously with his meetings.

One leaker deeming the cabinet meetings, quote, orchestrated and kind of an act like everything around this presidency. His interviews with the press, his collins to these radio shows. I've got a lot to say about the White House press corps. I'll get to that in a minute.

Yesterday we were wondering, where's former president Barack Obama? We did a whole talking points memo talking about him. CNN's Jeff Zeleny reporting. He's of the Times reporting that he has had at least one private conversation this week with speaker emeritus Nancy Pelosi, two of the party's top leaders speaking privately. Well, okay. What's their grandmaster plan? We'd love to hear it. What is it the Democrats are relying on you? Well, we have no idea. According to Zeleny, quote, neither is quite sure what to do.

They're in unchartered waters here and there's no one at the helm. Joe Biden is supposed to be the leader of the democratic party, and he says, I'm not going. And no one's accepting that decision, or at least you are. This morning we heard again from powerful South Carolina congressman James Clyburn. He went on the Today show on NBC and reiterated his support for President Biden. He's all in. He's riding with Biden. Unless that is Biden, who's been adamant he's staying, decides to leave speaker one.

B
I am all in. I'm riding with Biden. No matter what direction he goes, no matter what method he takes, I'm with Joe Biden. And if he were to change his mind, I'd just answer the question that I would be all in for the vice president.

C
Should the conversation about the president getting.

A
Out of this race, should that conversation continue?

C
No, it shouldn't.

D
The conversation should be over.

B
No, the conversation should focus on the record of this administration, on the alternative to his election and let Joe Biden continue to make his own decisions about his future. If he decides to change his mind later on, then we will respond to that. We have until the 19 August to open our convention.

A
What? Open the convention. We have till August. There's time.

Let's wait until he's decided. Let's see if he changes his decision. What?

This is very different messaging, as you know, from just what we heard a few days ago at the beginning of the week, it was Monday. We played that sound bite of him riding with Biden. Riding with Biden, riding with bind it like one of those dolls that you just pull the string out of. Well, he sounds a little different this morning, doesn't he? So apparently, Joe Biden is in the thick of it still and is going to have to take on the entire democratic apparatus if he wants to remain the democratic candidate for president for a second term. But, you know, this is not the first time that President Biden has defiantly stood his ground against his doubters, detractors, and those who mean to threaten him. I mean, he did once take on corn pop. Remember him? We were talking about this on our team yesterday. This is a reference that often comes up about him. And I was like, what? What did he say? What was that story again?

It happened in 2017 that he told the story. He recalled this alleged story of how he defeated corn pop, who was apparently, quote, a bad dude who ran with a bunch of, quote, bad boys.

It was 1962. Mister Biden was a lifeguard. Corn pop was allegedly horsing around at the pool.

So Joey told Corn Pop to knock it off. In return, corn Pop challenged him to a fight.

B
I was one of the guards, and corn Pop was a bad dude, and he ran a bunch of bad boys. And I, he said, I'll be waiting for you. He was waiting for three guys in straight racers. And I said, what am I going to do? And he cut off a six foot length of chain. He folded up. He said, you walk out with that chain and you walk to the car and say, you may cut me, man, but I'm going to wrap this chain around your head.

A
Are you standing in the midst of a bunch of young children who happen to be black, looking up at him like, what happened with the chain? What was the chain doing there? Fortunately, all's well that ends well. Mister Biden said in the end, he was able to diffuse the situation. Corn pop backed down. All right, so take note, Democrats. If corn pop was no match, perhaps you're not either. Joining me now, Michael Knowles, host of the Michael Knowles show on the Daily Wire.

So he's a tough guy, Michael. He's a tough guy, and that tough guy is in the fight of his political life. There are reports out this morning that his campaign manager is saying to everybody, we've just endured the hardest two effing weeks that anyone's ever had to undergo in political history. And if we can do that, we can survive this. We can survive anything. I mean, I think President Trump and his access Hollywood tape might beg to differ. But I, you tell me whether at this point on this Friday, you think this is survivable by Joe Biden.

D
I think those Democrat elites are some bad dudes, and I think they run with some bad boys.

But old Joe, he's tough and he knows how to defuse it. More importantly, he's got all the delegates locked up. So they really can't do anything unless they drag him out of the White House on a stretcher or unless they invoke the 25th amendment, they can't really do anything.

Yesterday, there was some rumor that Joe might decide he was going to step down as the Democrat nominee, but that obviously could not happen because if Joe Biden were to step down as the nominee, he would have to resign the presidency because of the reason that he would be stepping down as the nominee, namely that hes obviously senile and his brain doesnt work anymore. So if his brain doesnt work anymore to run for president, his brain doesnt work sufficiently to be the president, he would have to resign the presidency. And he's not gonna do that. Biden has wanted to be president since he was in the womb. He got elected to the US Senate before he was constitutionally old enough to serve. He's not giving it up. I don't think he likes any of these Democrat operatives. I don't think he likes Kamala Harris one little bit. And so why would he go down in disgrace and humiliation for them? He's not going to do it. So they're gonna have to try to wrest it from him. That would probably include invoking the 25th amendment.

The performance at NATO was not as bad as the debate. Exactly. It wasn't all that much better. I don't even really know what Biden said. My main takeaway from the press conference is that President Biden and Vice President Donald Trump have done a great job supporting President Vladimir Putin of Ukraine. And that's why NATO is stronger than ever.

A
It was one of those things when he called, introducing Zelenskyy, he called him President Putin. My team sent it out, like, circulating. I wasn't in front of the tv at the moment. I thought it was a joke for sure. I just thought, 100%, this is Babylon. Be didn't actually do that, did he? And sure enough, he did do that. Here. Do we have that moment? Okay, let's watch it.

B
And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine, who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin.

President Putin.

He's gonna beat President Putin. President Zelensky.

I'm so focused on beating Putin, we gotta worry about it. Anyway, Mister President, I'm better. You are a hell of a lot better.

A
Thank you so much.

I mean, and what we're hearing is that those who were close to the president in the first row actually had to yell out, you mean Zelenskyy? Zelenskyy. Like, so he didn't even do the correction on his own. He had to be called to his attention, by the way, Michael. I mean, his campaign tweeted that out. They tweeted out that exchange as if it was something to be proud of.

D
Well, that's because it had already gone everywhere. So I think whatever campaign flack was running the account at the time thought might as well try to control the narrative if we. You know, the narrative has already escaped us. And I don't think they did a great job of it, but they didn't amplify it all that much more in as much as everyone had already covered it. This is the president of the United States preparing for his first big boy press conference in eight months at the NATO summit, talking about the first major war in Europe since World War Two.

You're not going to be able to bury that one. And you heard he tried to recover. So he said, Putin. I meant Zelenskyy. I'm so focused on beating Putin.

And then he trails off and he says, well, anyway, and that's it. And you saw this verbal tick tick up again during that press conference. I think if I took a shot of vodka every time Biden lost his train of thought and concluded with, well, anyway, I would be almost as dead as Joe Biden.

A
Let's see. I don't know if you have a vodka there presently. It's a little early in the day, but let's see how many times you would drink. We have a little montage of those moments put together from last night alone.

B
Watch other leaders, heads of state, and thanking me, saying, the reason we're together is because of Biden, because Biden did the following.

Look, folks, this is.

Well, anyway, I had things all the time at the very end.

I'm catching hell for my wife for that. Anyway, for the longest time, it was, Biden's not prepared to sit with us unscripted. Biden's not prepared to in any way.

A
My team wants you to know that wasn't the entirety of the anyways. That was just sampling. That was not enough to actually get you drunk. But before you react, over the weekend, we saw the same verbal crutch. He kept saying, when he loses his train of thought, which is often, he resorts to anyway, or probably shouldn't, to avoid whatever was going to come next, or to avoid revealing that he has forgotten his train of thought, he's lost it yet again. Here's SAP 15.

B
Imagine this is the guy who says he wants to be a dictator on day one. Come on. Dictator on day one. He needs it, though. You know he means it. Look what he did. Anyway, I won't go into too much detail, but certainly people have a look.

What's the thing that keeps a look to. I remember anyway, I shouldn't get too personal. And by the way, you know, I was in that world war one cemetery in France and the one that one of our colleagues, the former president, didn't want to go and be up there.

I probably shouldn't have been saved anyway.

We got to just remember who the hell we are. We're the only nation in the history of the world that has gone through every crisis and come out stronger than we went into the crisis every single time. And by the way, I've been all over the world with you. I've been in and out of battles anyway.

You're incredible.

A
Oh, my God, Michael.

Uncomfortable.

D
We got to remember who the hell we are. I mean that literally. Who am I?

A
Who the. Who are you?

D
Where are we anyway? Anyway?

Really bad. And especially at NATO, that's really bad because Biden's argument is that NATO wants him to remain president because he's going to be tough on Putin, unlike Trump, supposedly. He's going to support NATO, unlike Trump, supposedly. But the proof of the pudding is in the tasting. The only presidency during which Vladimir Putin has nothing invaded a country in the last, what, 2025 years has been Trump's presidency. Things have fallen apart on Joe Biden's watch. And so, yes, does Donald Trump say, I'll talk to anybody, I'll work out a deal with anybody? He does. But then he works out the deal. So you get Putin remaining in Moscow, not going further into Ukraine. You get a relative peace in the Middle east. You even get little rocket man over in North Korea.

Pulling back on the provocative rhetoric, does Donald Trump say, NATO needs to pay more? We need to stop the entire bill for NATO. He does. I'm sure NATO doesn't like to hear that, but guess what, then they pony up. And Trump is a big supporter of America's alliances. Meanwhile, under Biden, things have gone to hell in a handbasket. And so if you are Vladimir Putin, who do you want to be president? Really?

I think it's clear. I think even most democrats would probably admit today, candidly, if you're Putin, you want Biden because you get to do much more of what you want because Biden is just not all there. The lights are on, but nobody's home. And the same thing is true if you're a NATO ally, if you're the leader of a NATO nation, you know that you cannot be feeling reassured after Biden's performance at this conference.

A
No. The other moment that you referenced at the top was part of the beginning of the remarks. And in addition to the Putin Zelensky thing, had everyone, I mean, all the muscles in my body were tense. You know, it was like, I can't take too much more of this. I don't want to see our president be embarrassed on the world stage. I really don't have, it's not a partisan thing. I just makes me uncomfortable. It makes me uncomfortable to see an elderly man fall, or woman for that matter. And this made me uncomfortable, too. And he didn't seem to know what his vice president was named. Here it is.

B
I wouldn't have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president, but I think she was not qualified to be president. So let's start there, number one.

A
And did not realize that he had done it. He went forward. It wasn't until the end of the presser, when I think it was NBC News, stood up and said, hey, you did this. You know, how are you going to respond when you get crushed for this? And he said, well, just listen to him. And when he called Trump his vice president, look at this. You can see his cabinet members, including Anthony Blinken, secretary of state, wincing. The secretary of defense was right next to him. They're wincing as he does it. Watch.

B
I wouldn't have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president.

Did I think she was not qualified to be president?

A
Oh, God, it's like the, you can see the one with the hand up to the face. That's how we all felt. I'll tell you this, I watched it, and certainly it was better than the debate, but that's such a low bar. I mean, anything short of dying would be better than what we saw in the debate. But what I saw was someone who was coughing, rambling, kept having to cough and clear his throat, who was hard to understand a lot of mumbling, still confusing facts. And the number one thing I saw, Michael, was something that his campaign ads seemed to be praising him for. But I, as somebody who's seen this up close and personal, saw something very different, which was, you know, his depth of knowledge on foreign policy. Okay. You know, I'm sure he's got a lot of facts in there about foreign policy.

I saw another sign of dementia, which is long, rambling stream of consciousness soliloquies that don't seem to have a point. A beginning, a crescendo, and a decrescendo and an end. That's how normal conversation is made. That's how normal answers to questions are provided. He wasn't able to do it, and that, too is a sign. And you don't have to trust Megyn Kelly. Go ahead and google it. Just Google exactly what I said. You'll see lots of results, come back to say that's a sign of potential brain disease, any form of dementia and some other problems with him. So I was not encouraged by it at all. And I think the people who are saying they were are, they're pretending. His campaign emerged from that last night like he was Tom Brady at the super bowl, completing the Hail Mary to win the game. That's not what happened.

C
Yeah.

D
The only little nugget of a victory that the Biden loyalists, the remaining Biden loyalists in the Democrat party party are trying to promote is this supposed vast knowledge that he has a foreign policy.

But I didn't see that. If you want to demonstrate a vast knowledge of foreign policy, you have to be able to, at the very least, distinguish between national leaders and between countries. It's not just the Putin Zelensky gaffe. He also confused Europe for China. He also, as you say, went on and rambled, didn't really articulate any clear policy vision. He seemed to suggest that he's not the commander in chief of the United States. So he didn't do that either. Even the one area where they say he succeeded, he really didn't succeed. And you don't need to listen to him. You can just see the effect on foreign policy of his administration, which has been disastrous. So he failed last night because what he had to do last night was reassure Democrat party elites that he is still the man for the job. And he manifestly did not do that.

You're seeing the journalists come out and they're continuing the leaks. They're ramping up the leaks. You heard this conversation between Chuck Todd of NBC and Jonathan Martin of Politico where they're talking about how journalists for years now have been privately talking about how obvious Biden's decline is. In fact, they bring up some of the sources they have, including a cabinet official who said years ago, oh, boy, things are looking really bad for Joe Biden. And so I think this actually explains.

A
Why the media and that he can't make a second term.

D
That's right. That he couldn't make a second term in this condition. I think this explains why the media are being so vicious to Biden right now. In part, it's because they realize that he's not going to be able to make it over the finish line. And their job is to promote the Democrat party and they won't be able to do that. So in part, it's a little bit of partisanship, but I think the reason that they're so particularly vicious with Biden right now is because he has made them look foolish and he has exposed them as frauds. The media and the Democrats and the Biden administration had a deal, and the deal was the media are not going to reveal that Biden is in obvious senility and Biden is going to win. He's going to stay in the basement and he's going to win. And everything gets to go on tickety boo. And Biden broke the deal because Biden's poll numbers were low. Biden had to challenge Trump to a debate. He thought he could do it in a clever way by changing all of the rules and kicking out the commission on presidential debates and putting it on CNN and getting rid of an audience. And he thought that he was making an offer to Trump that Trump would reject or try to negotiate the details of. Trump very wisely accepted all of the conditions immediately. And so what you saw was not the journalists finally digging into Biden. You saw, because of the Trump campaign's wisdom, you saw Biden being exposed past all of the journalists. And now I think that's what they're so furious about.

They're furious that he has exposed them for what they are.

A
That's exactly right. I'm looking at the latest on the radio interviews that he's been giving. And speaking of his interactions with the press and the latest we saw this week, it came out that at least two radio stations last weekend when he was on his I'm robust tour after the debate, at least two of the radio hosts admitted, got caught just repeating the questions that the White House spoon fed to them, gave them and said, please ask these questions. And they did it. One of whom was later fired. I mean, honestly, they both should have been fired. I've got nothing against these folks, but they, they embarrass themselves and their network. You don't do that. That's a hard no.

I mean, I will say it's not unusual for the subject, whether it's a senator or the White House or what have you to say. You know, he'd really love to talk about his whatever bill. You know, he's coming on to promote this thing he sponsored. That is, that's par for the course in journalism. Fine. That's how you get access and you get a yes to the interview to be spoon fed actual questions, to be handed actual questions they want you to ask and then to do it. No, that's, that is a, that's a bridge too far. Far too far. But here, um, I was another report in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that a Milwaukee radio station is now admitting that it agreed to make edits to a Joe Biden interview at the White House's request. And this is not, you know what, like, he, he spat on the one answer. Could you please not show that? Like, that's, that would be a normal thing not to, you know, trying to embarrass anybody. These were substantive edits that obviously made him look bad that they, they took out. For example. Let me see, do I have it in front of me yet?

One was, and I'm only going to guess on why they took this out.

At time 520, they removed, quote, and in addition to that, I have more blacks in my administration than any other president, all other presidents combined, and in major positions, cabinet positions. Now, I said, like, it's not unusual today, in today's day and age, to hear people refer to the black population as blacks and the white population as whites. But that's not how you're allowed to talk if you're a Democrat. You are not allowed to do that. You have to use ten other words to describe black people. And you have to capitalize black, too, by the way, but not white. Okay. And then at time 1415, in reference to Donald Trump's call for the death penalty for the Central park five, they removed, quote, I don't know if they even call for their hanging or not, but he, but they said something like convicted of murder. So it seems like he was inarticulate. He was admitting a lack of knowledge about the case he was trying to prosecute, and he looked a little lost. That's not okay, you know, if that's what you're taking it out for, because you're both on the same page about making him look good, not okay. So anyway, here's where I'm going with this, Michael. What we've learned this week is this White House press corps that literally gets paid to follow him around twenty four seven and do nothing other than report on the president. They don't have multiple beats. This is the beat did not care to look into or realize that a neurologist had visited the White House nine times at least over the past year.

And now we know for sure. Even the White House admits at least three of those were to visit President Biden. I believe it's more, and I believe they're obfuscating and outright lying that they did not know that he was doing written questions in advance. To many in the press who are interviewing him, there's something, who is it? Kelly O'Donnell is out there denying right now. She's denying that they take those questions. That's not true. Some of them do. We know that we saw it with the LA Times earlier this year and we've seen it with these radio hosts over the weekend, that they did not catch on to the fact that he's asking for edits in the substantive edits, edits in the interviews he does and that others are going along with it. This is all they have to do. You follow right now there's also reporting on how all the questions that these radio hosts asked are the same. How did that happen? Oh, it's because they were provided the way. Just listen. Your only job is to listen to his interviews. Listen to him. What's he saying? Find the similarities. They didn't, they didn't care. They don't care about reporting anything that might make him look bad. They did not know that he was requiring his cabinet officials to submit their talking points to him in advance and vice versa. They did not report and jump up and down about the fact that behind the scenes there's only been a full cabinet meeting.

The last one was in October. They did not report on the baby instructions. He's been getting everywhere, the kind you'd provide really to like a hundred year old person to say, nana, when you walk in for your hundredth birthday surprise, you go over to the stage and you do a wave and then you sit down in that chair. That's what he's getting toddler like instruct. None of this was reported by this White House press corps. And now they want us to believe none of this is their fault.

D
Michael, of course we know that the White House at the very least is obfuscating and lying. Actually, we saw Corinne Jean Pierre just the other day on the issue of this neurologist's visit. She said that Joe Biden had seen the neurologist three times, which is a clever way of putting it, because he has seen a neurologist three times. That doesn't necessarily mean he hasn't seen the neurologist a fourth time as well, or a fifth time or a 12th time or a 20th time. There's an old Mitch Hedberg joke which is, I used to do drugs. I still do drugs, but I used to do them also. And that's what Karine Jean Pierre was trying to say. And the mediaev, they don't dig into it, at least initially.

A
Well, let me tell you, let me just say something. She did say he hasn't seen a neurologist outside of those three annual physicals. But she also said some other things that turned out to be untrue. And we know she's not allowed to reveal what he hasn't authorized her to reveal. And the same is true for his doctor, Kevin O'Connor. They cannot reveal anything more than Joe Biden has authorized. Keep going.

D
Right.

So we know that the press know about this. It's not just that they didn't want to dig into it. It's not just that they didn't want to do their jobs. They were doing their job. But their job is not to speak truth, to power. Their job is not to be the intrepid reporters following the facts wherever they lead. Their job is to carry water for the liberal establishment and to advance the liberal establishment project. And so what you're seeing now is that the reporters are still doing their job. They were doing their job when they didn't report on Biden's obvious dementia. And they're doing their job now that they are reporting on Biden's dementia because they have lost faith and many leading Democrats have lost faith in Biden's ability to beat Donald Trump. And so in order to advance the liberal establishment agenda, they've got to get rid of Biden. The problem now for the Democrats is Biden still has the goods. He still has the desire to stay in office and to seek a second term. And so they're playing this game of chicken. And the press is saying, Joe, we're going to make you so unelectable, you're going to go down in flames. We are not carrying water, so you got to get out. And Joe is saying, he's saying, well, okay, guys, but I'm not getting out. So you can make me unelectable all you want, but then you're going to lose your power, too, because I ain't going anywhere. You're not going to bully me. And the only question now is, who blinks first?

A
You're so right, Michael. I was looking at this last night as these leaks came out about the cabinet, thinking, of course, they've known this all along. The reason that the cabinet members are now leaking this stuff to CNN is because there is a full fledged behind the scenes effort now among the Dems to get him out. And they said as much at the beginning of the week that things would get more humiliating for him if he didn't make the right decision. So it's not accidental. Yes, we're seeing more dems come out and call for him to leave. We saw that last night right after his remarks concluded. But what we're seeing now, more by the day, is more vicious leaks about him. So they've had it. They've had it in their pocket. The team that's around him and just allies of his, like donors like Clooney and indeed in some cases the mediaev. And only now are they releasing it because they're amping up the pressure. They're turning up that knob as he continues to dig in and say, I'm not going anywhere. It's actually really clear when you know that's a strategy and you start reading the press.

D
You mentioned the George Clooney op ed in the New York Times saying, I love you, Joe, but you gotta go. And this is a great example of this behind the scenes movement, because does anybody really believe that George Clooney can write? Does anybody really? I don't think anybody really believes he wrote that op ed. And Joe Scarborough on MSNBC was suggesting, as have many others, that maybe actually other Democrats were behind that. Maybe it was Barack Obama himself who put George Clooney up to writing that op ed. Who knows? This is just wild speculation, but there's this movement. You saw Joe Manchin earlier in the week. He came out and was asked, do you still support Joe Biden? He said, listen, listen. You know I love Joe, and I think it'll be a lot clearer after this weekend. And that's why I support Joe. But things will be a lot clearer after the weekend. I, and that raised my eyebrow. I thought, well, what's going on this weekend? What sort of plans do we have? You were seeing publicly, people like Obama or Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi say we stand with Joe, but then all the leaks actually, Obama doesn't. Actually, Schumer doesn't. Actually, Pelosi doesn't. So this is going to come to a head at some point. They're going to blow each other up. And then, I don't know, there will be no liberal establishment left anymore or somebody is going to win. I just think it's such a dangerous game for the liberal establishment because at this point, Biden has basically nothing to lose.

And if he did have anything to lose, I'm not sure he would even be aware of it at this point. Whereas for the Democrats, if Joe manages to hold on to the nomination, they're going to have to flip back. I don't know how you unwind the accusations.

A
I have a theory on this, though. I said it yesterday, Mike. I just think what they do at that point is they, they go 100% against Trump. That's it. There's just no Biden news. There's not, there's no news about Joe Biden or polling unless it shows that they were right, that he shouldn't be the nominee. And then you kind of mentioned, see, he's behind the, in the polls. This was really, like, reckless. But anyway, back to Trump being a devil, and they can kick that off as early as next week. You saw the New York Times yesterday with this editorial that was in all black with, like, the white letters popping up about what a demon Trump is. And that was because they're under pressure now, having hit Biden repeatedly as unfit by their core audience to say, hey, what about the other guy? You know, that's what you hear the joy reads of the world saying, what about Trump? So this is their, you know, they're throwing him a bone. Oh, you know, of course Trump's the devil. So I think that's what they'll do right here is, yeah, go ahead, speaker.

D
One in as much as a candidate is the center of the news cycle, either Trump or Biden, that is going to be to their disadvantage in at least this news cycle, if not all of them. And so that is an easy way to flip the switch. And that is what they've done in years past.

At this point, though, now that they've thrown four prosecutions at Donald Trump and they've accused him of harassing a woman in Burgdorf Goodman 75 years ago, and they've raided his house and they've done everything short of banish him to St. Helena, I am not convinced that that is going to work because don't forget to rewind a little bit. The reason that the Democrats are in this mess in the first place is because Joe Biden proposed that disastrous debate with Trump. And the reason Joe Biden proposed that debate with Trump is because the constant negative Trump headlines were not doing enough to suppress Trump's poll numbers and Bowie Biden's. So they can try it. It's probably the last thing they have left. You saw just the other day a news report from the intel agencies that Russia is looking to interfere again and support Trump. They're playing the hits, you know, like Rolling Stones hitting satisfaction at Madison Square Garden. They're going back to their, their classic numbers from 2016. But I just don't see any evidence that it still works.

A
Yeah, there was just a clip online yesterday of Mick Jagger praising Justin Trudeau, and the whole crowd started booing him. He looked so confused. What do you mean? Like people don't like Justin Trudeau? Hello. Stick to the music.

The intra party fighting going on within the democratic party is highly entertaining, obviously. And it boiled up and, you know, into plain view on MSNBC last night when Chris Hayes was hosting DNC chair Jamie Harrison. Watch this.

C
Stop the nitpicking, okay? Focus on the work ahead. This pass. I get you on that, but I want to just come back one more time because I think that's a little straw manning. Right.

That it's his stumbles that you should focus on. I am saying that.

I'm not saying many people are saying. I don't know what the answer is. Again, the good faith concern here for people who admire Joe Biden and think he's done a good job is that the nature of time and the stress of the job means that it will be very difficult for him to effectively execute the next four months of the campaign and effectively execute a second.

B
Chris.

C
Donald Trump is literally talking about calling Chris Christie a fat pig. Let's be serious. Joe Biden just laid out a complex view of the entire world, and we are putting ourselves in this mental gymnastics to talk about, well, how will his age be in two years? We know what we have in contrast with Donald Trump.

A
Technically, Trump said somebody else brought up the fact that Chris Christie was allegedly that thing, and Trump told him not to say that that's actually how it went down. But that's not a scene you see every day over there on MSNBC, Michael, they're tearing each other apart.

D
Listen, we have to support the dementia patient in the White House because otherwise we might have a president who would insult Chris Christie.

That's the best they got. That's a plus for a lot of voters. That's the best that the Democrats have to offer. I think that is the best the Democrats have to offer. And that's why you hear desperation from the voice of the official party Democrats. But you also hear desperation from journalists like Chris Hayes. He says, I'm just worried. Oh, sorry. I should say I'm not worried, but a lot of other people are worried that we're losing this thing.

A
Yeah. And look, it does look perilous for them. Hold on. We're going to take a quick break. We're going to come back and do a little bit more on that post analysis. So what does it mean? What does it mean now? Does he go, does he stay? Because more democrats did pile on and we have to discuss the fundraising because that may be the most significant thing that happened this week. Stand by. Michael Knowles stays with me.

C
More and more.

A
You're getting Democrats coming out. I think the numbers up to seven now who have gone public calling for Joe Biden to not be the candidate for term two, mostly from the House. We've seen a couple of senators while Michael Bennett of Colorado explicitly, you know, going there and then some others toying with it. Just now we have Colorado Governor Jared Polis. This is just hitting, saying the debate about his candidacy remains legitimate.

Quote, they really need to look at how they can reinvent this campaign again. Look at messaging, look at strategy. Of course, it's a legitimate discussion about the candidate, but how we're going to win to protect democracy. Last night, democratic Representative Jim Himes of Connecticut, who's the top ranking dem on the House intelligence committee, came out right after the presser ended.

All the stuff about he's the greatest. I mean, truly, they're talking about this guy like he's Lincoln. All of them before they stick the knife at him. The greatest ever accomplishments immense.

He must not risk that legacy and those accomplishments and american democracy to soldier on in the face of the horrors promised by Donald Trump. And on it goes.

There were two others who came out last night as well. Representative Eric Sorensen of Illinois, Representative Scott Peters, Democrat of California, both calling on President Biden to withdraw from the race.

And yet I don't know exactly what the plan is. Obama, Pelosi meeting, Democrats speaking up more and more. And yet what we're hearing again from CNN to whom these Democrats talk, is that if you step out of line, you get it. Like the White House is still the White House, Biden is still the president. And so there's a reason we haven't seen more than 17 come out and here is that reason. SA 23 one thing that many of the folks that we spoke with that they are so furious about is this idea that when people have gone to these inner circle of advisors around the president to express some of these concerns that they were not taken seriously or really brushed aside, this is what one top Democrat told me. They said everyone who expresses any level of suspicion or contrary views, they call everyone and they beat the shit out of them and say, stay on message.

Well, CNN with the salty talk.

So what could the plan be, right? If they're too, if they're too afraid, if Obama and Pelosi just had a conversation but nothing came of it? If Clyburn still digging in though, saying if he changes his, like, now we're about to, whole media is about to turn to Milwaukee and start talking about Trump and his VP pick. So I mean, it's sort of like a perfect storm for, for Donald Trump, right? Like he loves these rough waters. He's doing some smooth sailing. He's like churn and burn. Keep it going. Like stick, stick it out. Joe, you got this. Don't let them bully you out of office.

D
The plan is, through a combination of sticks and carrots to get Biden to choose to leave the race. Because the only way to get him out is basically, the only way to get him out is for him to choose it. The problem is that the sticks aren't big enough to hurt Biden and the carrot doesn't exist. There is no incentive that they could give him. What they're trying to say is by puffing him up and pretending that his total failed term in office has been some great accomplishment, that he will therefore preserve his legacy by stepping down now.

But he won't. He is already seeking the presidency. The history books already will say if he were to step down, that he wanted to get it and he was thrown out because he has dementia, because he couldn't do the job, because he was a failure, because he was an embarrassment. That's already baked in.

So the horrible situation for the Democrats, some news just broke. There's a report out that Democrat donors are freezing some $90 million in funds in the biggest Biden super PAC from.

A
The New York Times.

D
Well, sure. I mean, good luck. Okay. You can freeze those funds.

What does Joe Biden have to lose by sticking it out? What does Joe Biden have to gain?

A
Legacy.

D
The legacy. The legacy that's already completely tarnished and that the Democrats, by playing this game of chicken, have already tarnished because now any way you slice it, he will have been chased out of the nomination, out of the White House probably, and he'll go down as a man who left the job because his brain had turned to applesauce. So if I'm Joe Biden, what I do is I say, okay, you're going to freeze my $90 million. Okay. You're going to keep running these nasty pieces about me. Sounds good. I'm going to turn my phone off until late August, and then when I am inevitably and formally the Democrat nominee, you're all going to come groveling back. You Democrat donors are going to have no option other than to unfreeze my money. You scoundrels in the press, you jackals are going to have no option but to play nice with me again and try to help me win the White House because I'm the guy you got and I've already won the nomination. There's no procedural way for you to take it from me. So good luck, guys. Sounds good. I'm going to go on vacation for a month. See you in late August.

A
He did say something interesting last night. I actually wanted to make this point. In addition to the long, rambling stream of consciousness talking, he repeatedly did the whisper and then he did the angry Joe. You know, it was a lack of emotional regulation that we saw time and time again last night. He did make a point about releasing his delegates. Let me just give you a couple of examples of what I'm talking about before I play it. Here's, let's listen to sat twelve.

B
I love my staff, but the ad things. Oh, I'm saying that no poll says that none of you thought that would happen.

None of you thought that would happen. Everybody says we want somebody else. That's the democratic process.

It's not gonna happen. More children are killed by a bullet than any other cause of death.

The United States of America.

A
By the way, that last point is not true. It's motor vehicles. But saw that, and then you saw that moment where he was talking about the guns and it came out of nowhere, just kind of tacked it on. You could see he kind of thought he was having a badass moment. Here's a little bit more in sat nine.

B
Control. Guns, not girls.

I mean, the idea we're sitting around, this is where Kamal is so good as well. We're sitting around, more children are killed by a bullet than any other cause of death.

The United States of America.

What the hell are we doing?

What are we doing?

We got a candidate saying, promising NRA. Don't worry, I'm not going to do anything.

I'm not going to do anything.

You got a supreme court. That is what you might call the most conservative court in american history.

This is ridiculous.

A
All right, so you see the, and it just look, out of nowhere was the crescendo, right. And then back down. And then finally, when asked about the delegates, which is really the most important thing here, is what he said. They're all pledged to him. They're his to hold on to.

Very hard for them to break with him. Or is it south 13?

B
Obviously, they're free to do whatever they want, but I get overwhelming support.

Overwhelming support.

I won how? I forget how many votes I won in the primary.

Overwhelming.

And so tomorrow, if all of a sudden I show up at the convention, everybody says, we want somebody else. That's democratic process.

It's not gonna happen.

Sure.

A
It's not gonna happen.

Is it gonna happen, Michael, what's your prediction now?

D
It's not going to happen. And part of the reason I think it's not going to happen is because Joe Biden, who can't remember people's names, who's been looser with his language than usual. He's pretty careful with his language there.

The reporters are asking him a technical question.

Do you release the delegates or will you possibly release your delegates? And he gives a rather informal and ambiguous answer. I mean, come on, man, they're free. You know, they're free. There's free will. They're free to do. It's free country, you know, and that. And, yeah, I mean, look, man, the democratic process. And there's the process, but, you know, it ain't gonna happen.

You see, despite the quiet little odd whisper, you see old tough guy Joe come back there, he says, I'm not giving you the answer you want. I'm not saying that I'm gonna release my delegates. They're my delegates, and I won that primary, and you're not gonna take it from me, you jerks. And so he's trying to balance it. As you point out, he can't regulate his emotions and his rhetoric as well as he used to. But in that answer, I see a lot of prevarication, I see a lot of euphemism, I see a lot of blurry language, and I see a guy who is taking this thing to the convention.

A
His team really just needs to continue treading water, because this week we're all going to be focused on the RNC.

And then we were talking about this yesterday. Then come the Olympics for two weeks, which will dominate, you know, the news they'll have, they'll find some time for this for sure. But this is not rating. We look, took a look at some of the ratings on our, on the liberal media channels. They're not doing gangbusters. And in fact, they move away from the story now a lot sooner than they used to because the Democrats are depressed, like it's doing well, I think, in conservative media. But the Democrats are depressed, which is another incentive for them to turn away from it. So it, you know, the longer he can draw it out, the more likely he weathers the storm, which does suggest the Democrats need something big to happen if they want to get rid of him. And I just don't know what that is like. Obama can't control this from behind the scenes. This is an in front of the scenes kind of thing. I'll give you the last thought on it.

D
It's going to take more than some op eds from George Clooney. You know, the real hope in all of this, a real glimmer or bright spot in politics, is sometimes we conservatives believe that the Democrats, they just control everything. They've got it all so locked, locked in. We have no hope of ever getting power back. And I think they were completely caught with their pants down here. They have no idea what to do. They're scrambling. They're making threats. They're eating each other alive. And they still can't make any progress. For now, the democratic voters have spoken. Joe Biden is their nominee. And I am totally in support of.

A
That fact, as the kids say. And I am here for it. Michael Knowles, thank you.

D
Thank you, Megan. Great to be with you, as always.

A
So one of the reasons Biden says he's not dropping out last night is he says the polls are wrong. Show me a poll that shows me losing to Trump and I'll get out. We'll do that next. Don't go away. I'm Megyn Kelly, host of the Megyn Kelly show on SiriusXM. It's your home for open, honest and provocative conversations with the most interesting and important political, legal and cultural figures. Today. You can catch the Megyn Kelly show on Triumph, a SiriusXM channel featuring lots of hosts you may know and probably love great people like Doctor Laura, Glenn Beck, Nancy Grace, Dave Ramsey and yours truly, Megyn Kelly. You can stream the Megyn Kelly show on SiriusXM at home or anywhere you are. No car required. I do it all the time. I love the SiriusXM app. It has absolutely ad free music coverage of every major sport, comedy, talk, podcast and more subscribe now, get your first three months for free.

D
Go to siriusxm.com mkshow to subscribe and get three months free. That's siriusxm.com mkshow and get three months free offer details apply.

A
I am joined by a polling expertise to discuss some of the latest numbers in the 2024 race. And man, oh man, the polls are getting a lot of importance placed on them by a lot of pundits lately. As of today, former President Trump remains up a bit in the real clear politics average of all polls, almost three points over President Biden. And this week, polling from Emerson College shows new trouble for Mister Biden, not just nationally, but in the battleground states as well. Here to discuss it all, Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

C
Spencer, welcome to the show, Megan, thanks for having me.

A
Okay, so give us the top line that you concluded that you reached in your polling.

C
Well, the takeaway from the debate is that Trump either gained ground or stayed the same in those six, seven swing states that we're looking at. And nationally over the last two weeks, he's pretty much picked up a point a week going from about one to three. And I think in the big picture, about four years ago, he was trailing nationally at this time by about four points. So we're seeing a bit of a reversal of what we were looking at in the last election cycle.

A
So with the national popular vote, which is kind of like the generic non battleground state polling, he's doing well. And in the battleground states, he's doing well and getting better over the last two weeks, essentially.

C
And what's most concerning for President Biden would be looking at the states of, let's say, Georgia and Arizona. Those two states have been trending towards Trump for six, seven months. Most of the polls in Arizona all have Trump leading in that state. If those two states swing towards Trump, then any of those other swing states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, if they swing, Virginia, Minnesota, if any of those five states swing, then Trump gets the 270 electoral votes and wins. So the Georgia, Arizona is a big problem for President Biden at this time. And then, of course, you got those five other states that are either trailing or very close at this time as well.

A
So as far as I can tell here, you polled all the swing states, and we looked at them and we looked at what you found pre debate versus post debate.

It looks like in Arizona right now, it's Donald Trump up four over Biden. Before the debate, it was Donald Trump up for Michigan, Donald Trump up one. Before the debate, Donald Trump up one. Wisconsin, Donald Trump up three.

Before the debate. Donald Trump up three. But then we get to Nevada, where Trump, you're showing he's up six pre debate. You had him up three. Pennsylvania, Donald Trump up five pre debate. Donald Trump up two.

And then there's Georgia, where he's now showing in the Emerson poll. Donald Trump up five pre debate, he was up four. So in particular in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and to some extent in Georgia, it looks like Biden really hurt himself with that debate.

C
And it was across the board that he got hurt. It wasn't just with younger voters or older voters or a particular racial group of voters. And that's the concern for President Biden, is finding that pocket of support to be able to build and get back. In my opinion, just getting to 50 50 isn't enough for the Democrats to be able to win a national election anymore. They have to win by three, four, maybe five points nationally. So he's got a lot of room to make up.

A
Okay, explain that. I don't understand that at all. I've heard a bunch of pollsters talk about this, and this is where I get lost.

C
Well, it's not that the national poll is going to mirror all of the state polls. There'll be some exceptions to it. But what we've seen over the last eight years is generally, as the national poll goes, it's pulling those states in that direction. So the national poll in 2020 was four and a half points, and in 2016, it was two and a half points, both leaning for the Democrats. The difference between 2016 and 2020 is Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania. And so if Biden is able to get that lead from four, four and a half points, that looked like he could take the presidency now that he's even or he's trailing, that's a difficult spot to be in at the state level because there is some mirroring of the two votes, the national vote, in the state vote. So as he's trailing in the state votes, he's also starting to trail in all of these or in the national vote. He's also trailing in these state polls. And so there's not really, like, a silver lining at this point where we're seeing maybe California or New York doing better. We're seeing New York at like seven, eight points. This is a 23 point state. California is better for Biden at like 20 points. But that's, again, a 33 point state. So what you're seeing is kind of a dropping of the tide for Biden from where he was in 2020. And then the question is will that help Trump? Or does Trump have a ceiling in and of himself where we've seen the polling kind of sit around 46% nationally? Can he get that number up to 48% to 50% and then be able to split the vote that way and win at the state level?

A
It's like the Democrat voters have taken a depressant. They've taken some sort of a depressant, and it's being reflected in those numbers, like the whole electorate seems like down there. But you mentioned the Trump ceiling, and that that number you just said is a problem for Trump. Has Trump ever been as high as 50% with the electorate?

C
Well, in our polling, we'll do the head to head ballot test, and generally, Trump peaks at 46. And that's what we've had him at for the last four months. But then we do a push question, and that's where he gets to 50%.

We ask voters who are undecided if they had to choose which direction they would go in. And at that point, it goes to about a 50 50 race, which is good for President Biden, but not good enough, in my opinion. He needs to get that two to three points higher on his side. And then the real question is, is it all baked in? We saw that debate, and the numbers didn't move dramatically. What would change the numbers at this point for President Biden to move them dramatically in his direction? And that's what we're waiting to see if those change at all.

A
So back in 2016, Trump won the electoral college but lost the popular vote, you know, renewing the push by some Democrats to get rid of the electoral college.

I heard an interesting discussion the other day on the commentary podcast about whether Steve Kornacki was on, about whether there's a scenario this time around where it could be reversed, where Donald Trump could win. I mean, of course it's always possible, but is there any likelihood that this time around, Donald Trump could win the national vote, the popular vote, and not the electoral college?

C
I mean, as you said, anything is possible in american politics. We're looking at some pretty close races from 2020, but right now, they're not looking that close. Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, those aren't looking like toss up states that we've seen over the last two cycles. They're leaning towards the Republican, leaning towards Trump. At the presidential level, there's a different story happening at the Senate level, but at the presidential level, those states are leaning. So it would be surprising now to that point, if the popular vote is down in New York, if the popular vote's down in California. And remember, Clinton really ran up that popular vote in California. But if you let that vote kind of settle and Biden only wins those states by in the teens, there's an opportunity there for Biden to be able to win because he's giving up probably five, 6 million votes between those two states and his leads.

But to me, that would tell me that there's not a rising tide. We saw that in 2016 when we saw Indiana and Kentucky results come in early that night, like, whoa, that looks like a rising tide. Like, well, this is three, four points higher than what we expected. And then obviously we saw how 2016 played out. So we'll see if in this cycle, Biden's able to win in a very unusual game plan for the Democrats to try to win without winning the popular vote.

A
So you're saying when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 16, it was via the route that basically leads Republicans to oppose making this a popular vote election, which is you could basically win with New York and California as a Democrat, you just, they're huge states with huge population and they're almost entirely blue. Not entirely, but largely blue.

And that's how she got the popular vote as high as she did. But those states don't determine the election because we know they're going to be blue. And it's still very possible for a Republican to get to 270 thanks to all the other states that are out there.

C
Yeah. And so that was the strategy. And then at the end, she tried to get to Michigan and Minnesota and tried to hold that Midwest blue wall, but that cracked on her. Biden was able to bring that back to some extent. But the key to me was in the south being able to hold Georgia in Arizona. That allows the blue wall to get into play. And we'll see if Biden's able to make a comeback in either one of those two states at this time. As I said, especially out in Arizona and Georgia, the polling for the year has been leaning towards Trump.

A
Those states, I mean, when I was coming up at Fox News, from 2004 to 2017, they were red states, right? Georgia and Arizona were red states. And then they started to shift more blue. And we started to hear about Stacey Abrams and I. You know, Arizona got ticked off during the Trump years, and I'm sure they didn't much like his fight with John McCain, who was beloved and all that, but, and then the Trump presidency was somewhat chaotic, you know, and so they're, the more moderate Republicans were irritated, but now they seem to be going back to their roots. Having been under four years of Democrat rule, at least at the federal level. Is that what's happening?

C
Yeah. I mean, it's interesting, Megan, to think about it. You have four senators from those two states, all Democrats, to think about. That's where Arizona and Georgia went in the last four or five years. Kind of raised in Arizona, considering. Yeah, you've got with cinema now, I guess it's an independent. But those are surprising shifts that we saw in those states. But then there seemed to be shifting back. Kemp wins his race by seven points over Abrams, where Abrams was in a nail biter the last time they ran. If Trump is up by five to seven in Georgia, again, it's about 270. So how does President Biden or former President Trump get to that number? And those are those key states. So we'll be monitoring to see if there's any movement. But right now it seems pretty consistent, not just in our polls, but in the other numbers that we've seen from other pollsters.

A
So if Trump flips Arizona and Georgia back into the red column, as you know, again, we have four months to go, but right now it's looking pretty promising.

Then Biden must win the blue wall states, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

C
Oh, yeah, yeah, you gotta win Pennsylvania.

A
Pennsylvania is, that's, that's the must win state for him. Correct.

C
Like above all Pennsylvania, all of them are must wins. Now, if he gives up Georgia in Arizona, Pennsylvania becomes a must win. Michigan's a must win. Any one of those. Wisconsin's a must win combination of Nevada and New Hampshire. If those two were to swing, Minnesota's a ten electoral state vote. You know, Minnesota's the same as Wisconsin. Now. Minnesota hasn't gone for a Republican since Nixon. So hard to imagine.

A
They keep chasing it. They keep chasing it.

C
But it was close in 2016.

A
Minnesota. Yeah, that's true. Trump did win it.

C
It was close. But Wisconsin is.

A
Wait, wait, wait. Trump did. Trump. Trump. I thought Trump won Minnesota in 16:00 a.m. i.

C
No, Josh lost.

A
He lost Minnesota, but he won Wisconsin.

C
Right.

I think Minnesota was the closest state that he lost was within a percentage point. But New Hampshire was also really tight in 2016 and then it shifted towards Biden by seven points. What Biden is losing this cycle are the independents. So he's got to switch over. He's winning the independents last time by five points, and now he's losing them by five points. So he's got to bring that group back over and still hold on to that Obama coalition. And it's going to be an interesting summer to see how this all plays out.

A
The Obama coalition's not going to vote for Trump, we think, although portions of it are saying they will. He's, some black voters, some hispanic voters are migrating over to the republican ticket. But the enthusiasm is important, right? Like, that's how motivated are you to get out there and vote? Like I said, the Democratic Party seems like it's on a depressant right now. And they were, they were banking on the hatred of Trump. Law fair, convicted felon. My God, I can't vote for that to like, drive their voters to the polls.

But then we've had so much bad news economically at the border. The lawfare campaign fell on its face and then the debate. So it kind of explains what's happening, including in these states that are so critical.

C
And, Megan, I'll jump onto that point even further with the Democrats is that they traditionally win new voters. They're usually up by 30 points on newly registered voters in this cycle. It's either tied or leaning towards Trump. So those younger voters that come into the arena for the first time, they generally break for the Democrats. Obama wins them by 30 points, Biden wins them by 25.

And now we're talking about them being maybe split, maybe they break slightly for Biden at the end of the day. But it doesn't look like the Democrats have the recruitment process that we've seen in years past as far as voter registration of these newer voters into the arena.

A
I feel like there are so many reasons for that. The economy would be a huge one as it is for many of these disaffected voters.

The lack of inspiration. You know, Obama, a lot of Republicans can't stand him, but he was beloved in the democratic party and he was new and he was different and he was mixed race. And it was exciting to vote for somebody who was the first black president. You know, it's like all of that would get young people to the polls. And I also think just from my own experience, there's been so much of the nonstop Dei talk and race essentialism and gender like to these young people in particular. They're like on the front lines of that battle I've seen in my own worlds, which are very left, you know, New York City, the Upper west side, and now I'm in Connecticut where it's at best 50 50.

The kids are revolting. They're, they're signing up for the turning Point USA conferences. They're registering Republican. They're wearing MAGA hats, like, openly. I do think something's happening where there's a backlash amongst the young ones who have been put through the nonstop Women's History Month and black History Month and LGBTQ history, for the love of God. Okay, that's my own armchair analysis on it.

So you mentioned New Hampshire and Nevada like that. Those would also be in the must have category for Biden if Trump wins Georgia and Arizona. Okay. Trying to keep all the states clear in my head. And it's not looking so great for Biden. It's looking bad for Biden in Nevada. And even New Hampshire's wobbling. Now, there was news. Gavin Newsom felt the need to swing by and make a campaign visit in New Hampshire for the dems just recently. So can you talk about those two states?

C
Yeah. The silver state out west has really been trending to the right. Remember, they voted in Lombardo as their new governor, a republican former sheriff.

And we'll see. There's a Senate race there as well with Jackie Rosen and Brown. Brown back. We'll see if that one tightens up over the next couple of months. But, yeah, if that's the six electoral votes, New Hampshire's four electoral votes. The idea that New Hampshire could be competitive is a concern for the Democrats because you have an open governor's race that they were looking to try to pick up. Plus you got an open seat in the second district. And generally the first district's like a five, six point democratic advantage. But if that's all melting away, depending on who the Republicans put up, yeah, you've got the presidential race, but then you've got the Senate in the House, particularly the house with New Hampshire. And in Nevada, you've got the first district, the third district.

You know, they've been going after Susan, Susan Lee for, since she's gotten in.

Those are going to be key. But it's a combination of those two states because that's a six electoral vote and a four electoral vote. So Biden could lose one of them and still be okay if he carries those other five states. But if he loses both of them, along with Arizona and Georgia, again, Trump hits the 270 mark.

A
So if Trump wins Arizona, Georgia and New Hampshire and Nevada, what position does that leave Biden in? What must he. I mean, then can he get there?

C
No.

A
Even if he wins the blue wall and Pennsylvania?

C
That's right. That's why those are the ten electoral votes. It's a game to 270, and we can sometimes get lost in the game because you're. Oh, you got the national poll. We got this close, but when we just come down to those states. That's what's so important and that's what's concerning for the Democrats is they're saying, look, we're trailing here. How are we going to turn this around? Because if we don't turn it around, we're going to lose. And Biden saying, I will turn this around and we'll see what happens. At the end of the day, what we see in the polling is that there are Biden supporters sitting on the sideline. When pushed two to one, they break for Biden. But it doesn't seem to be enough at this time to put him over the top. He'd still trail Trump nationally and in the state polling.

A
I mean, this is pretty, I mean, again now, listening to the conversation that Spencer and I just had, let me read those numbers again right now. Emerson College poll showing Trump's up four in Arizona, only up one in Michigan. But the fact that Michigan's in play is good for Trump. Wisconsin, he's up three. Nevada, he's up six. And I've seen there, there's internal polling from, I think, the Trump campaign, or maybe it's Biden, but it's showing Trump up ten, as much as ten in states like Nevada. We'll see Pennsylvania Trump up five and Georgia Trump up five. I mean, he's, he's looking great in all the states he needs to look great in. And you, you said, so what they're asking themselves on team blue, what can we do? What, what catastrophic event could there be for Trump or miraculous event could there be for Biden to provide the lift Biden needs now to recover what he lost in that debate and then some because he was losing going into the debate. In most of these states, the law fair campaign doesn't look so great.

It really doesn't. It doesn't. It looks like it's over, frankly.

So what have we seen something historically? Like, we know that the Comey announcement about the Hillary emails shortly before the November election, Democrats are convinced that doomed her. Like, is it going to take, if you look at history, is it going to take a catastrophic or miraculous event?

C
I wouldn't say a catastrophic event. Hopefully not. But it's going to take some game changer. And we didn't see it at the debate. In fact, probably lost a little bit of ground at the end of the day on that performance. So last night's press conference, I don't know if that's going to do it, but something, we never know what the future holds, but it could be an opportunity, a crisis where he stands up and shows leadership and the country rallies around the president at that moment. But at this point, he's struggling to have that moment. And until that happens, it just seems like it's a slow, even as you watch members of the Democratic Party come out and start slipping away from their support of the president, it's like a slow bleed. And the question is, next week, does he lose another point nationally or in the following week? Now you're going to have the republican convention. That's going to be the highlight. That's where Trump is going to peak. By the end of next week, into the following week, how much does he go up? And then is there movement? A lot of this has been baked in for years, in my opinion. Can you move this electorate in some of these places that he's going to need to? And that's where the Democrats are really questioning it and he's going to, the president's going to have to decide if he can actually win this race at this time or not.

A
We were talking about these states and how they're doing.

Are those all two man polls?

C
No. With the three horse race, it's kind of a mixed bag when you throw in Kennedy West.

Chase.

A
But Stein.

C
Stein.

But they generally help Trump. But nationally, you see it help Trump. It's a bit of a mix in the states, like in Arizona, Wisconsin, they seem to help Biden a little bit more.

But Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, they help trump a little bit more.

I think it has a net positive for Trump because when we look at who's voting for these third party candidates, it's younger voters.

They're under 30, under 40. And that's again, part of that democratic base that they seem to have lost. And the only area where Biden is slightly improved is with voters over 70.

A
But let me ask you a question on the younger voters. So what you're telling me is the younger voters, it's not that they love Trump, it's that they don't really like Biden and they probably would stay at home. But if they saw like a cornel west or an RFKJ or a Jill Stein on the ballot, they might actually go out and vote for them. That's, is that, does that explain why Trump does better when there is, when it's five way that does.

C
You've articulated my thought well, Megan. Thank you.

A
Talk about the old people.

C
The old people, they were a little bit more for Biden. Biden lost that group by about five, six points last cycle. He's losing them by like three or four. So I'm not saying he's winning the group, but he's made a little bit of an inroads with them. But then you could get into like the forties and the fifties. They've really moved away from the president. And, you know, you're looking five, six point swings there where Trump was winning by five and now he's winning by ten. But again, the most concerning part of the voters under 40 that since Obama had been locked with Democrats in, particularly voters under 30 that have been even more strongly for the Democrats, aren't there right now. And how do you get them excited? Student loan programs, other programs is what the president has tried to do. Marijuana policies they've thrown out hasn't really got this group of voters excited for him. But part of it is that this group was really part of the Bernie Sanders group, that there was a big mix when he didn't get the nomination. And it seems that right now they're holding back in supporting Biden.

A
Okay, maybe you can help us predict something.

We're looking forward to the RNC next week. And Trump is, you know, by this time next week, we're going to know who his vice presidential running mate is.

We think he's going to announce it. I mean, at this point, you know, he's only got a couple days left. If he wants to announce it pre convention, we think he's going to do it at the convention. He was on the record saying he thought it was more exciting when people did that and that he would like to do that. So it could be Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday's the night that the vice presidential candidate would speak.

So we're all trying to figure out who's he going to pick. And we have no idea whether the press has any clue what it's talking about when it says the short list now includes Rubio, Vance and Bergam.

So let's just widen it out. Let's just. Okay. Just knowing that those are reportedly the three names, but he didn't choose one of the final three names that was in the press last time. He had to pick somebody.

Who does Trump need to shore up with? Right. Like who is he struggling with right now that he could use help with? Last time around, we knew more conservative voters had doubts about Donald Trump, which is why he chose Mike Pence. But, like, what's the one group he needs to soothe? Because I've heard Ann Coulter say he went down with white Mendez from 20 to 16. Sorry, from 16 to 20. And so he should be picking somebody who drives those numbers back up, he should not be thinking about diversity. That's the case she makes.

I've heard others say he's getting Hispanics at record numbers. So why not shore that up by choosing a hispanic candidate like Marco Rubio?

Drive the enthusiasm even more, get even more of the hispanic vote and keep Joe Biden's turnout in the hispanic vote as low as possible because he can't win if the current polling with blacks and Hispanics stays as it is. So stick a knife in there. So what, what's your analysis of what might make the most sense?

C
Well, from the polling data that I've seen, almost all of these candidates, they kind of hurt Trump at the beginning. You're going to see they, they're not as strong of a brand as the Trump brand. So whoever he brings on my opinion is going to be a little weaker than he is and might actually cost them a half a point. A point.

We'll see how much of a personality of the person is that they're bringing on. But the Trump brand is very strong, and whoever he brings on with that brand is going to have to get on board.

I'm not sure everything that you raised are good points where you say he's made inroads with the hispanic vote. You bring in Rubio and then bang. Instead of. Then you look like Bush in zero four, where you lose the hispanic vote by six points and you win the election. He won the popular vote in zero four, the black vote. They talked about Senator Scott being able to make inroads there. I don't think it's that easy. I think that vote is more locked in than the hispanic vote. There's the male vote that he's already doing much better than he was in 2020. With the group that really raises another eyebrow is the female vote. They were plus 15 for Biden last time, and now it's like five. So you've seen it all swing over to the right.

The group that Biden still holds with are those postgraduates, those with advanced degrees. He's still winning that group by 25. But, you know, college grads, they're not heavily with Biden this time. So it's a long way. Megan of ten, I don't know.

A
But you know what that tells me, Spencer? You know, that tells me, it tells me that the choice will probably then be ideological. What factions of the party.

Right. Like what, what factions of the electorate does he need to stimulate as opposed to their demographics? Whites, blacks, men, women, old, young, ideologically, who do I need to get? And that leads me to my breaking news, which is a local Virginia reporter on X just reported that Glenn Youngkin is going to the republican national Convention. This is like, that would be classic Trump, right? Somebody who hadn't really been mentioned much. He's, he, I bet you anything Trump likes young because he likes rich people.

He does. He respects money.

Bergam's rich, too.

I don't know. So who the hell is Virginia?

Virginia swing state?

C
I will, I will give you this inside info. We're in the field right now in Virginia. And what did we do? We've made a ballot test with Trump junkin versus Biden Harris because we did think that could be a potential and we want to see does Virginia swing with Youngkin on the ticket? And if he does, yeah, I could see that playing out. We'll probably have those numbers on Wednesday next week to be able to verify what we're talking about here now. But, yeah, that's a real possibility because now Virginia is a swimming state. Plus, Youngkin is term limited. You only get one term in Virginia. So he's looking for a job as well. But that could be an interesting combination for Trump and again, puts more pressure on the Biden team to have to be able to. Since Obama, Virginia has been blue. So if all of a sudden Virginia is turning red, puts a lot of pressure on these other states. Again, more money being spent. Plus you got Tim Kaine on the ticket up there running in the Senate race.

That would be an interesting pick.

A
But one thing to, would ignite the establishment. It would ignite the establishment that all those people said he should choose. Nikki Haley. No, every Nikki Haley voter would be fine with, with Glenn Youngken. They, they probably wanted Glenn Youngkin to begin with. He just kind of fell off the national stage and focused on Virginia. And then he had bad electoral results last time around in Virginia, he didn't manage to shore up both houses under republican control. And there was somewhat of a backlash from the very liberal DC suburbs against his crackdown on woke ism and so on. Anyway, that would be such an exciting pick because he's not like a longtime Trump basher. That's some of the problems that the people he's considering on that short list have. You know, every day there's another story about something negative JD Vance said about him. Certainly Rubio, we saw less. So Doug Bergam. But I don't know that Doug Bergam gets people excited the way that Youngkin does, who many establishments see as the future of the party or would like him to be.

C
Yeah. And if we remember back in 2016, Trump was really the moderate candidate. It was Cruz who was winning that conservative vote. So he needed Pence at that time. Maybe at this point, he's actually flipped where he was stronger with the Republicans in the nominating contest this cycle than with the independents. That's where Haley was able to make some inroads. So the young pick would be ideologically in line with maybe his needs.

A
Okay, we've got to talk about this.

Let me play this sound bite from Joe Biden yesterday. It's 41.

If your team came back and showed you data that she would fare better against former President Donald Trump, would you reconsider your decision to stay in the race?

B
No. Unless they came back and said, there's no way you can win.

Me.

No one's saying that. No poll says that.

C
Yeah, I'm laughing at the secret. The secret is a little weird, but the whispering.

A
No poll says there's no way he can win. Well, I think that's true. Right? I mean, I haven't seen a poll that no polls would say there's no way.

The question is trying to read what's out there and determine likelihoods with the understanding that we have four months to go. So, I mean, if the Biden team called you in there and said, just give us, give it to us straight, what is the likelihood at this point, based on what you're seeing that he can win, what would you say?

C
Slim. Slim.

You know, again, it comes down to Georgia and Arizona. Tell me what the game plan is to turn one of those states around. And then you've got so much pressure on this firewall that, as we said, even if, like a New England state like New Hampshire and a western state, like Nevada, switch it, you know, swings, then even the firewall isn't enough to hold it together, and then you're going to have. So it's slim right now, I'm not saying it's over, but when you look at where he was four years ago, it's a totally different match. And we can't pretend like it's the same board that we're playing on. And, you know, the opinions are a lot different today than they were four years ago. And he's got a lot of ground to make up from where he was even maybe six months ago. And a lot of this is so baked in that the question is, how do you shake it up to move this electorate? We watched the debate, and as I said, only a couple of point shifts in, like, three states. Three states didn't move at all. So what happens if he had a miraculous great debate where maybe he floats on there? I don't know if he would even move the needle two or three points more. So the question is, how do you shake up the race right now, which seems to be pretty strong in the Trump camp in these key swing states?

A
I'll tell you what, if I were a Democrat in charge of elections, I'd be speaking with Jack Smith right now because I don't believe this. But they believe that the law, fair will make a difference. And I would be telling him, slim down that indictment right now to only the things Trump said would not be immune. Refile it. Judge Shutkin's going to put us on the rocket docket and get us a trial super fast. And if we can't get him convicted by November, we'll get him convicted before January 6. And the certification, we'll make the case that you can't swear in a convicted felon on a January 6 type federal felony. Like, that's, that's a Hail Mary. That's what I'd be doing if I were on their team.

C
Yeah, that's a stretch. I don't know. I mean, we'll see.

Obviously November 5, if the legal challenges were a good plan for the Democrats. There seems to be some backlash to all of these court proceedings, even Trump's conviction. You had Democrats asking for a pardon, which raises an eyebrow about how they feel about these cases. So I'm not sure if that's the way to go. Maybe some outside intervening event.

A
Wait, what do you mean? Even Trump's conviction, you had Democrats asking for a pardon.

C
Speaker one, I think the candidate that ran for president out of Minnesota, he asked for Biden to pardon Trump.

A
Oh, Dean Phillip.

C
Yes.

A
Saying he should pardon him. Right, right. Okay.

C
That's a Democrat running for president saying you would think that's like the base who are like, yeah, throw him in prison and he's stepping back as a more moderate wing. That shows you that there's some divide within the party on the issue of what to do with the former president on those legal challenges. So I don't know if it was necessarily a home run hit to move forward with all of those plays. Obviously, we'll find out November 5 because.

A
That'S the exit polling. We'll ask about it. All right. So now the Democrat party is spending every waking hour trying to figure out if not Biden, then who could be, who could be Trump. And you did do some polling on that.

This, what I see here is no one that's, that's what I'm seeing from your, your polling.

I'll read the numbers.

So it shows Trump up by three in the national poll over Biden.

Up by six over Kamala Harris, up by six over Bernie Sanders, up by five over Al Gore. Al Gore is polling better than Kamala Harris. Wow. Up by seven over Hillary Clinton up by eight over Gavin Newsom up by ten over Pete Buttigieg. Up by ten over Elizabeth Warren up by ten over Gretchen Whitmer.

Up by eight over Josh Shapiro.

That's pretty much everyone.

So what, how do they go into Joe Biden and say, you should resign? If I, Joe Biden? I'm looking at the Emerson poll saying, who's better than I am?

C
And I think that's what you heard last night. But I think in those numbers, and I'm glad that you brought them up, Megan, because let me explain what's happening. These candidates are unannounced. And so when I put them into these ballot tests, what we're seeing is these younger voters, they're only breaking for Biden by twelve. They're totally split with these other candidates because they don't know who they are. And so I do think that there isn't like a magic bullet in this group that's going to change the trajectory immediately. But I think if you rallied around one of these candidates, you could have a star in that mix, somebody who might be able to shake up the campaign and change the dynamics. Some candidates that looked interesting was governor Shapiro out of Pennsylvania. He was pulling a little bit more from that youth vote than what we saw out of the other candidates. But they all start so far behind on name recognition that Biden, the president's in a strong place to be able to argue that they're weak because they are. But if you gave them three months of campaigning, I think you could see a different type of ballot test between them and Trump than what we're seeing right now with Biden. Now. It could go in the other direction where the bottom falls out on the Democrats. And they say, well, we like President Biden, but we don't like any of these horses. And you see it go to Trump or a third party. So it's not an easy decision to make. It's never been made. I mean, Johnson is the first one to drop out, but he drops out in March, March 31 of 68.

And then you had Kennedy. And I mean, yeah, Kennedy in there, who gets assassinated? So that's 68. It's a weird cycle as well.

Incumbent President Jimmy Carter he was able to sustain Ted Kennedy's push in 1980.

And that's what they asked him about, voting your conscience last night, because that comes out of the convention where that's what Kennedy wanted out of the voters.

We'll see if the convention is a moment for the Democrats to shake up the race, or we'll see if maybe Biden is right, that all the polling is off five or six points and he'll win in the nose.

A
I mean, whatever happens, Trump is in store for an even greater onslaught of negative press than he's received, of course. And if there is a new Democrat candidate, they will, they will have only universally positive press coverage, except for in conservative media. That's it. I mean, I think they won't get all these people who are out there, ABC, NBC, CB's, CNN, MSNBC. They will be lionizing whoever steps in to take this baton from Joe Biden. They'll be lionizing Joe Biden, too. One other thing I want to ask you, the reporting, is that this is from semaphore. I've seen it elsewhere, though. This is the first time in 24 years that the GOP nominee has led after the July 4 holiday going into the conventions. That's very interesting. And we have had GOP nominees win. I mean, obviously, we had George W. Bush. We've had his dad, we've had other Republicans. We had Trump.

So how big a fact is that, that for the first time in 24 years, the GOP nominee has led after the July 4 holiday? And the point is, time is short and the GOP is ahead.

C
Yeah, I think it's an interesting point because they're winning the popular vote, and they're winning the popular vote not by a point. It's three now. And it seems to be growing. We're more, one of the more conservative numbers. I've seen it as high as five or six, you know, out of Quinnipiac in the New York Times. So that's a huge popular vote total. That's what Reagan had in 1980, and that was a blowout. So that's the concern, if you're on the democratic side, that, yeah, it looks close, and maybe it's close enough for Biden to be able to reach out and win it, but it also could be far enough away that this thing just slips away in September, October. And the biggest concern for the Democrats is not just the presidency in the Senate, because the Senate's probably gone if they lose the presidency, it's the House itself.

It's a toss up. And you've got a lot of races in New York and California that they're trying to pick up. If they're only winning New York by six, seven points, those are going to be tough seats to pick up. And then you've got legislation and there you could have a presidential mandate if president comes in with that type of victory. And that's got to be a concern for the Democrats because it's one thing to lose. It's another thing to lose all of that policy. And those are, that's what they're thinking about.

A
That's right. I mean, there was a top New York lawmaker saying New York is officially a battleground state now. You know, we're, we're not winning this by anywhere near the margin that we're used to seeing in New York. And we saw that in the last midterm elections where Lee Zeldin came, you know, within this, he came this close to actually winning over Hochul, which was.

C
Just unprecedented six points. It was good.

A
Yeah. I mean, that's very respectable for a Republican. Wait, last question before I let you go. Spencer Biden now twice to Lester Holt and then last night said the same thing when pressed on the polls. Do you really believe the polls, are the polls as accurate as they used to be? That's what he keeps saying. Do you, how accurate does anybody think the polls are these days? So, you know, we have had polling surprises like Trump. You know, Hillary Clinton's numbers were great all the way up to election day or so. So should we be trusting the polls this time around?

C
Of course. But there's always a margin of error, Megan. And the biggest concern here is all of the polls historically that are skewed. They skew to the left. So in like 2016, what you mentioned, 90% of the polls skewed towards Clinton. It should be like a 50 50 skew. You know, some polls are going to be off. You're going to be off to the left, you're going to be off to the right. But historically, what we found is that these polls have been systematically off to the left. Now, we tried to balance that off and we ended up a little bit to the right in the midterms. But as we come back into the presidential cycle, we'll see, because historically they lean in the other direction. That should be helping Biden. And if that is the case, that might mean that Trump could be up by two or three points higher than what we've been seeing in the polls. But at this point, I would leave the polls as they are and look at it as a margin of error in a range of scores. And what we're seeing is a trend. And that trend is trending towards Trump and a lot of these swing states. And we'll see if that trend continues for four months or if it starts trending in the other direction. And we see this all the time in races. We saw it in Ohio, Bernie Moreno's race. He was very close. Trump came in and rallied for him. He went up to 20 points in the polls. He wins by 25. We saw it down in Maryland with also Brooks and Tron. Tron was up because he spent a lot of money. Also, Brooks, Angela gets into the race and pulls off the upset in two months because there's energy and excitement.

So there's still time in the race. We see it in other races. But again, this presidential race might be a little bit more baked in than what we see in these other races where the candidates are fairly unknown.

A
Yeah. And these two have ubiquitous name recognition. Spencer Kimball. So good. Please come back.

C
Thank you for having me, Megan.

A
Thanks for listening to the Megyn Kelly show. No B's, no agenda, and no fear.