Trump's Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices!

This episode delves into former President Donald Trump's economic policies and their potential impact on inflation and tariffs.

1. Trump proposes significant tariffs that could increase the cost of living by impacting consumer goods prices.
2. Trump's economic rhetoric focuses on nostalgia for lower prices during his presidency, overshadowing his administration's chaotic aspects.
3. The proposed tariffs could have unintended consequences across multiple economic sectors, potentially leading to increased inflation and reduced competitiveness.
4. Trump's economic policies are seen as a response to current dissatisfaction with high prices, but they may contradict the economic realities and needs.
5. The discussion raises concerns about the broader implications of Trump's policies on economic stability and growth.

1. Introduction

Ezra Klein introduces the episode's focus on Trump's economic policies and their implications. He sets the stage for a detailed analysis of proposed tariffs and their potential impacts on inflation.

• Ezra Klein: "Today, we dive into Donald Trump's economic proposals and their potential to reshape the American economy."

2. Tariffs and Trade Policies

The chapter details Trump's tariff proposals and their expected impact on consumer prices and economic sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.

• Matt Yglesias: "The proposed tariffs could act like huge sales tax increases on almost everything imported, raising prices across the board."

3. Economic Impact Analysis

This section evaluates how Trump's tariffs could increase living costs and affect various industries, discussing broader economic repercussions.

• Matt Yglesias: "Implementing these tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, complicating the economic landscape."

1. Stay Informed: Keep abreast of economic policies and their implications.
2. Budget Wisely: Prepare for potential price increases in consumer goods.
3. Invest Smartly: Consider the impact of economic policies on investments.
4. Advocate for Policies: Engage in civic discussions about economic policies that can impact your community.
5. Plan for the Long Term: Consider long-term economic trends in your financial planning.

Donald Trump has made inflation a central part of his campaign message. At his rallies, he rails against “the Biden inflation tax” and “crooked Joe’s inflation nightmare,” and promises that in a second Trump term, “inflation will be in full retreat.”

But if you look at Trump’s actual policies, that wouldn’t be the case at all. Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him. It’s almost unimaginable to me that you would run on this agenda at a time when Americans are so mad about high prices. But I don’t think people really know that’s what Trump is vowing to do.

So to drill into the weeds of Trump’s plans, I decided to call up an old friend. Matt Yglesias is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and the author of the Slow Boring newsletter, where he’s been writing a lot about Trump’s proposals. We also used to host a policy podcast together, “The Weeds.”

In this conversation, we discuss what would happen to the economy, especially in terms of inflation, if Trump actually did what he says he wants to do; what we can learn from how Trump managed the economy in his first term; and why more people aren’t sounding the alarm.

People

Donald Trump, Matt Yglesias

Companies

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Books

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Guest Name(s):

Matt Yglesias

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Ezra Klein
From New York Times opinion this is the Ezra Klein show.

The last few years have given Donald Trump one great gift. Inflation. Prices have risen so high, so fast, that a thick film of nostalgia has settled over Trump's presidency. People don't seem to remember the chaos of his administration, the mismanagement, the exhaustion of it. What they remember is that the economy was pretty good, that eggs and milk and gas and cars and homes were cheaper, that interest rates were lower.

I was walking in Park Slope in Brooklyn last weekend. I was at a street fair, and this guy was selling shirts that said, Donald Trump, make my wallet great again. Now, marketing Donald Trump to parks up liberals is going to be an uphill battle. But if you're going to try it, that is the angle you would choose. And I think Trump knows it's the angle you would choose.

I've been watching Trump's rallies lately. I started because I was hearing how dark they'd gotten, how Trump was promising this unending cycle of revenge and retribution. I wanted to hear it for myself before I commented on it, and so I began just going through them. And Trump does make those promises sometimes. But if the only picture of his rallies you get is from reading liberal coverage of the most fascist things he says, you miss their overarching mood and message.

Revenge isn't mainly what Trump talks about, at least not most of the time. He does talk about it sometimes. What he mainly talks about is immigration and inflation, and what he's best at talking about is inflation. And he has others talk about it, too. I was watching this one rally from May, where Trump had a black woman who owned a vegan cafe.

Not the normal constituency you think about for Donald Trump, come up to endorse him. We're honored to be joined today by Shanna Gray, who owns a vegan restaurant, supposed to be really good. I'm not into the vegan stuff, I must say, but I'm going to have to try this. When I, when we come here in a short period of time into Milwaukee, we're gonna come and try that vegan food. I don't know if I'm gonna like it.

Donald Trump
But she had a big business. Shanna says her business is being brutalized by the soaring cost of food. She's never seen anything like it. And right now, she says things just aren't working. She was doing great three and a half years ago.

She was doing better than she ever did during the Trump years. She said, I was able to afford things. I wasn't worried about my future. I am now. I'm starting to really worry.

The stress and the anxiety are really hurting me. So I'd like to have Shauna come up for a second and say a few words. Thank you.

US Bank
As we spoke before, it is very important that we change what is going on now. None of us can continue to go with the Biden administration. We definitely need to make this House party over. We need Trump in 2024. So make sure you vote Trump 2024.

Ezra Klein
This is part of his pitch. You don't have to support storming the capital to want cheaper groceries. Anger over high prices have become this kind of non ideological argument for Donald Trump's return. But Trump's candidacy has given Joe Biden one great gift. For all Trump's talk about high prices.

He has built his campaign around an incredibly bold, ambitious agenda to raise prices. A 10% tariff on imported goods, a 60% tariff on goods from China. These are like huge sales tax increases on anything that comes in over the border. A mass deportation effort, a Federal Reserve chair. Who will listen to Donald Trump when Trump says jump, or when he says, I guess, cut rates?

It is almost unimaginable to me that you would even think of running on this agenda at a time when what Americans are mad about is high prices. It is the most straightforward agenda to raise prices or raise inflation possible. And it's a reminder of how Donald Trump actually governs, which is that when the crisis he faces doesn't match the worldview he already has, he just keeps going on with what he thought before, consequences be damned. But I don't think people really know that's what Trump is promising to do. Trump is often covered in this weird policy free zone, as if nothing he says can be trusted enough to report on it.

So all you can report on are vibes and threats. But I do think the policy stakes here matter, and I think they get at something central about Trump's campaign. And also, I think they are the way you should cover campaigns. You should listen to what the presidential candidates say they're going to do and think about what it would mean if they didn't. So I invited my old friend Matt Iglesias, who writes the great newsletter, slow, boring, and who I used to co host a policy podcast with to talk it through.

As always, my email as recline shownytimes.com dot Matt Iglesias, welcome back to the show. Really glad to be here. So we're going to bring in some old school weeds energy. For those of you who listen to the Policy podcast Matt and I did back in the day and dive into Donald Trump's actually articulated economic plans. So I wanted to play a clip of Trump describing how he sees what he's trying to do.

Donald Trump
My agenda will tax China to build up America. The heart of my vision is a sweeping pro american overhaul of our tax and trade policy to move from the Biden system that punishes domestic producers and rewards outsourcers to a system that rewards domestic production and taxes foreign companies and those who export american jobs. They will be rewarded, and rewarded greatly, and our country will benefit. To achieve this goal, we will phase in a system of universal baseline tariffs on most foreign products. All right, so universal baseline tariffs, what he is proposing, from what he said, is a 10% tariff on imported goods, a 60% tariff potentially, on all goods imported from China.

Ezra Klein
Matt, what would that mean? You know, I mean, in a very literal, direct sense, it's going to mean higher consumer prices on various kinds of things. The universal baseline tariff concept, it's a little odd, actually, because even in the realm of people who love tariffs and love trade protection, they normally try to think about industries that the United States competes in. Right? Like, you might want to help american steelworkers versus chinese or turkish steelworkers, but there's lots of stuff like, we don't really grow any coffee in the United States, and so the price of all that stuff is going to go up under a 10% tariff regime.

Matthew Yglesias
You know, you're saying, like, suddenly american car companies that are based in Michigan, for example, import a lot of parts, you know, car parts from Canada, from factories that are in Ontario. And so it's going to become more expensive to assemble a car or an airplane or any other kind of, like, complex manufactured product in the United States if all of the inputs need to be taxed at 10%, whereas a farm producer, right, if you put the factory in Canada, that becomes a better place to build a car, to build an airplane, that kind of thing, that piece. Of it feels pretty important to me. A lot of what we import are goods we use to make other things. And so if you're increasing the cost of the things that american producers need to bring into the country in order to make the goods and products they sell outside of the country, then the goods and products they sell outside of the country are going to become more expensive.

Ezra Klein
And also the rest of the world is not going to sit by while we tariff everything that they sell us and then do nothing. They're going to put tariffs on everything we sell them. So this idea that you're going to make America more competitive and put american producers in a better position, at least when it comes to what we export, that doesn't seem at all obvious. And on top of this, there's this other thing that economists like, jump up and down to tell you about tariffs, which is that it will also raise the prices on things that are made entirely in America because american producers compete on price with foreign producers. If all of a sudden the things that come in from the outside become much more expensive, that gives american producers room to raise prices.

And as we just saw with inflation, when they get room to raise prices, they do raise prices because they want to make bigger profits, right? I mean, you know, it's a trade off, you know, so if you tax, like, all foreign raw metal, you do help american metal producers, but you hurt not only american consumers, but like, I mean, I've never gone to the store and just like, bought aluminum, right? I buy things that are made out of aluminum. And so you're gonna hurt producers of more complicated kinds of goods. You know, the United States has lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the years, but what we're tends to be production of fairly complicated kinds of things, sort of high end products, and you're going to impair those kinds of industries, sort of final assembly if you tax the intermediate goods.

Matthew Yglesias
This was an issue during Trump's previous presidency in which he did a fair amount of tariffs smaller than what he's talking about now. And part of what would happen is companies would sort of come to the Commerce Department and they would plead for exceptions, right? They would say, look, there's a certain grade of metal that isn't made in the United States, so I need you to give us a waiver on this so that we can keep making our sort of more elaborate products. Sometimes you would get those waivers, sometimes you wouldn't. But that's going to be a big sort of question if you actually do this, is are you going to hammer american producers of complicated manufactured goods?

Are you going to give them a lot of waivers? Or is it going to become something in between, right. Where a whole thing for corporate America is kind of like begging and pleading to get favor from the White House. Something we've seen in Argentina, which is a country that had a lot of import substitution policies over the years, is that these kind of decisions about who is allowed to import components and who isn't becomes very politicized. Donald Trump, his campaign doesn't do a lot of nuanced interviews in which they explain exactly how this kind of thing is going to work.

But it could be, like, much worse than it sounds on its face, depending on how you think those second and third order consequences function. So we have some estimates on the policy. So Adam Posen, who's the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a very respected economist in these areas, he's estimated it would be about a two to 3% hike in the CPI in the inflation measure. Casey Mulligan, who is a very conservative economist who served on Trump's council of economic advisors, he said it'd be about a 1% hike. We've seen estimates it'd be about $2,000 annually in new household costs.

Ezra Klein
That would be pretty concentrated on things like groceries. There's been estimate about a half million jobs would be lost to this GDP, down by about a half to 1%. And as best I can tell, the argument here is Trump just says, no, it wouldn't. And the reason Trump says, no, it wouldn't if you read his interviews is he says, look, we did some of this when I was president. We had a great economy, and everybody knows we had a great economy.

Now, these were smaller tariffs. And his basic view is that this would be paid for elsewhere. That instead of passing these costs along to consumers, that in order to maintain competitiveness in the us marketplace, producers in other countries are just going to eat this money, right? They're just going to sort of eat the cost, but continue sort of exporting into America. And obviously, he sort of also believes you'll have very strong substitution from american producers.

How likely is that? I mean, you get some of that, right? I mean, the incidence doesn't fall exclusively on american consumers. I do think that, you know, when you've looked at studies of the tariffs that he did in the past, the bulk of the incidence falls on american consumers in most cases, it's hard to know exactly what will happen because the foreign reaction is going to be important. So far, for example, like Biden has managed to put these tariffs on China without China retaliating against american producers, which is interesting.

Matthew Yglesias
We don't know how the world would react to this stuff that Trump is saying. He would do. And we also don't know what he's going to do on fiscal policy, which would be a big influence on inflation, interest rates. We know that when he was president, before, he cut taxes a lot, and then he grew military spending, but he also grew domestic spending. And that was stimulative to an economy that at the time he took over, still had a fairly low labor force participation rate.

Right now, we've got a larger share of working age people already employed than we've had in a generation. So it's not clear where additional domestic production would come from. I want to tap into the politics here of this for a minute, though, because as you mentioned, there was a fair amount of tariff work done in Trump's first term, much smaller than what we're talking about here. But that was done in the context of low inflation, low prices. What everybody knows about the election this year is that prices are a huge problem.

Ezra Klein
The american people are angry about prices. They don't want things to cost more. I think in that context, if Joe Biden came out and said, I have a plan for making not literally everything, but a huge amount of the goods consumed in America cost significantly more, up to 10% more, up to 60% more if they come from China, people say that's insane, right? You have a plan for raising prices almost across the board, at a time when people say they're angriest of anything about prices and price increases. And yet Donald Trump is lashing Biden on inflation and has the most straightforward policy you could possibly imagine to raise prices.

I mean, the only thing that would be more straightforward is a complete across the board consumption tax of some kind. And those two things feel like they have not quite penetrated. Like, the difference between what Trump is saying, his political approaches, which is that the Biden inflation era has been a disaster, and then what his policies say, which is he's going to do a bunch of different things to raise prices, starting with tariffs. Yeah, I mean, you know, the clip that you played at the start of this segment, it really sounds like the kind of stuff that, at an abstract level, that say, like John Kerry was saying in 2004, which was a time when there was fairly high unemployment and people were talking about a jobless recovery. And so you had this pitch that I think pointy headed economists never liked, but that was at least in line with sort of public sentiment, that it was like, we got to get people reemployed.

Matthew Yglesias
Today, the unemployment rate is very low, but people are very upset about the price of groceries and there's a fertilizer, there's something called potash that they import to fertilize crops. Almost all of the potash in the United States is imported. So you're going to tax that, and you're going to make it more expensive to grow food. You're going to make it more expensive to import foreign food products. We'll talk later about immigration.

It seems like it'll just raise prices. It doesn't even connect. I mean, you look at that stretch of rhetoric, there's not even a part of it where Trump is like, and here's why that's good. Like, here's why that will cut prices. He says, we're going to produce more stuff at home, but there's no army of unemployed workers right now to go work in these new factories, even if it all works out brilliantly.

Right? And so tons of new things open up, and we're making everything at home. Well, the people who are making that stuff would have to be the people who, right now are working in hospitals, they're working as police officers, they're working in childcare centers, they're working in restaurants. And so the price of something else would have to go up. It doesn't make sense to me logically.

You know, something I would note about the Trump economy is that during his time in office, inflation and interest rates did rise. It's just that they rose from a very low level to a level that was, I think, perfectly acceptable by most people's viewpoint. And so when Trump talks about this, and when I think most people think about it, they say, well, inflation and interest rates were lower when Trump was president. So if we make Trump president again, we'll go back to how it was. But if you think about the directionality of change, Trump took office.

He implemented an inflationary fiscal policy. He implemented these tariffs, and inflation and interest rates went up. They only went up a little bit, but they did go up. And he's now saying, well, I want to do what I did before, but sort of more so. And you would expect the direction of change to be in the same direction that it was when he was president before.

Just, we are starting from a level at which people are much more concerned about inflation and interest rates. There's at least some evidence, though, that this has worked out for him in the past. But the economist David Otter looked at the places that they're most attempting to help, and I would say otter is really the leading trade economist right now. What he found was, on the one hand, the tariffs didn't seem to help very much. They didn't change employment.

Ezra Klein
They didn't lead to a resurgence in manufacturing. A lot of the research here found that the price was simply passed on to the consumer. But he did find that they were politically effective. They made people in those areas more likely to identify as Republicans and more likely to vote for Donald Trump. Yeah.

Matthew Yglesias
I mean, you know, his finding there is that the places that sort of hypothetically would have benefited from increased production thanks to the tariffs trended toward Trump. So particularly, you know, he gained in Ohio, even though there wasn't a huge surge of new washing machine factories. And I think, you know, on a identity politics level, I mean, remember that this used to be Democrats whole line, right? I mean, Obama in 2008 talked about how he was going to renegotiate NAFTA and bring back jobs to the midwest. So that kind of pitch has always done well for the communities that sort of it targets.

And I see why he continues to roll with it. I mean, I also see why the Biden administration has been more protectionist than prior democratic administrations to try to sort of match Trump. It does get to something, I think, interesting in the economic policy choices here between Biden and Trump. I mean, you can imagine a choice between a previous democratic administration and Trump, which is a much more free trade regime, and Trump's mercantilism, protectionism, whatever you want to call it. Biden has been much more sympathetic to the idea that you need to protect american industries and directly nurture and strengthen supply chains you want to have here.

Ezra Klein
So semiconductors are a very good example in the Chips and Science act. There's a lot of stuff in the Inflation Production act trying to bring more renewable energy production and supply chains here. They've put pretty significant tariffs on at least some chinese goods. Electric vehicles are a very big one. And so in a way, it feels to me like the choice here is not so much between a candidate who believes only in free trade and a candidate who believes in only in protectionism, as a candidate who believes in more targeted tariffs and subsidies and this other policy, which I think is almost like best understood as a kind of weird consumption tax.

Matthew Yglesias
I mean, I think that the Biden administration would characterize what they are doing as selective strategic tariffs to protect and foster certain key industries. You can argue around the margin as to whether they've fully lived up to that. But, you know, the very high tariff on chinese electric cars and then a high but lower tariff on chinese batteries to go into electric cars, it's a good faith effort to foster an electric car manufacturing industry that is located in the United States of America. And you can see that to some extent, it is working right. Like a bunch of companies have opened up electric car factories in the United States, or they've broken ground on them.

And that includes foreign companies. So the korean EV companies are starting production in the United States. So are the german ones. And so that does raise the cost of electric cars relative to what it would be if we just sort of bought the cheap chinese ones. But he's trying to build it up.

The 10% tax on everything is much more broad brush. I think there's a real sense in which Biden has seized the middle ground, is how you would put it, optimistically, between dogmatic free trade and kind of nutball protectionism. It's also a little hard to explain his position, though, because it's, it's very nuanced, it's in the weeds of details. And, of course, in practice, he's very influenced by who's lobbying him and sort of what they think the swing states are. Well, let me try to take another version of this from a more trumpian perspective, which is when Donald Trump runs in 2016, and he's running against this more free trade oriented consensus that was dominant in both parties.

Ezra Klein
Right? You had a more free trade oriented republican party, but also one in the Democratic Party with things like the Trans Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that Barack Obama negotiated. What you get there in that election is a lot of people saying, if we elect Donald Trump, this sky is going to fall economically, we're going to have trade wars. Everybody's going to put retaliatory tariffs on us. It's going to be terrible for the stock market.

And Trump comes into office, and mostly he does a lot of the things, although not all of them, that he said he was going to do. And the economy is more or less fine. I think the evidence is that his tariffs were not particularly helpful. But the thing you see afterwards is not. But the Biden administration going all the way back to the pre Trump consensus, actually, they absorb a lot of what Trump and his team did, particularly on China, and keep it right.

They don't roll back the tariffs on China. In fact, tariffs are higher on China now than they were when Trump was in office. And something you'll hear from people around Trump. I mean, Robert Lighthizer, who is Trump's former trade rep. And will probably be pretty significant in a next Trump administration, has made this point, is that, look, there's a lot of pressure towards free trade among academic economists in the sort of Washington policy world, right?

There's funding from business groups, right? There's a kind of intellectual consensus. But we broke that once. And in fact, a lot of Democrats now think, yeah, you guys had a point on China, and breaking it even more, again, is in the right direction, that all these things people warned about happening mostly didn't happen. The economy was fine.

So who's to say that won't just happen again? I mean, I think specifically on China that that is a sound argument, right? That Biden has largely followed in Trump's footsteps, that Jared Bernstein, who is the director of the Council of economic advisers, you know, he was talking, gave a speech saying, you know, we're happy to import disinflation from China, but we don't want to import deindustrialization. So that's an area where the consensus has moved toward Trump, has moved toward lighthizer. That's why I've been mostly talking about Trump's plan to increase tariffs on countries that aren't China, because that's where it's hard for me to understand even how the internal logic of Trumpism works, right?

Matthew Yglesias
That if we're trying to gear up for geopolitical competition with China, why are we talking about raising taxes on things that are made in Canada? How does that. That advance that kind of goal? But I think it's on fiscal policy, where you sort of get closer to the metal on this. When you and I both worked at Vox, Trump was trying to pass a tax cut bill, and there were a bunch of Democrats who were upset that this was gonna make the budget deficit much larger.

And they were saying, you know, various negative things about that. I wrote an article that ran in December 2017, and I said, you know, I don't like this tax bill, very slanted toward rich people, but a higher budget deficit is going to be fine. The United States is nowhere near full employment. That was a controversial stance at the time. The Obama administration's position was that the United States of America in 2016 was already at full employment.

Trump's economic policy was a bet on the idea that that wasn't true, that you could bring the prime age employment population ratio up several percentage points. Thought Trump was right at the time, and I said so, but not everybody agreed Trump was right about that. And I think that it has won him goodwill from a lot of people. I now think that he is wrong. If you look at the current Biden economy, we have an even higher share of prime age people working than were working in the past.

We have an inflation problem. We have interest rates that have gone up a lot and that the Fed is using to keep a lid on demand. I think that if you pour more sort of fiscal stimulus on the economy right now, you're going to have a very serious problem. But sort of deficit hawks who cried wolf in 2016, 2017 or even going back to 2011, 2012 have burned through a lot of credibility with the american people and it's challenging to sort of make this case to them. Well, that gets to the other side, the output in a way of this tariff idea, because the tariff idea will raise money for the, the government, right.

Ezra Klein
The government collects tariffs. It is a way of funding the government. I mean, it is in many ways an alternative to at least directly placing taxes on your own people. And Trump's team has been very clear about what they want to spend the money on. So some percentage of Trump's tax cuts will expire.

They want to extend all the tax cuts and they want to do another roughly $500 billion in tax cuts. How do you think about that, both as economic policy, but also in the context of prices and interest rates? I mean, one thing is that if the tariffs would fully pay for extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs act, you could debate the merits of that, but it would make sense. But the numbers don't come close to adding up. Right.

Matthew Yglesias
TCJA extension costs about 4.6 trillion with a t dollars over ten years. The tariffs raise a much lower amount of money than that. And so, you know, you're going to have a higher, higher budget deficit unless you have big spending cuts where, again, I mean, Trump is committed to not cutting Social Security, to not cutting Medicare, to increasing the military budget. As you well know, Ezra, those three things are the lion's share of federal spending. You could cut everything else by like 40% or something.

But Trump doesn't want to cut immigration enforcement. Right? The opposite of that. And so, you know, we're going to have, I don't know, like no national parks, there won't be mail delivered. It's hard to know.

Ezra Klein
Just huge deficits, right? I mean, so what he actually did when he was president, what George W. Bush did when he was president is they just, the budget deficit got bigger. So, you know, when he took office, interest rates were really low. He made the deficit higher.

Matthew Yglesias
Interest rates went up a little bit. It wasn't like a huge deal, but they did go up. Right now, you know, interest rates are pretty high and the deficit projection is to go up. You know, we used to every week, you know, talk about these kind of, like, little wonky policy details. And ten years ago, there was this, like, fever pitch about the budget deficit, even even longer than ten years ago in Washington.

And it was really like the boy who cried wolf, I think, about this kind of thing. People talked for so long, oh, the deficit. We need to reduce the deficit. Like, there's going to be a crisis, et cetera. And people started tuning that out.

I was not saying that in 20 11, 20, 12, 20 14, 20 17. And now I'm, like, really worried. I'm really upset that people sort of shot their credibility on that because it's hard to get a mortgage right now. It has frozen up the housing market. People don't want to build new houses, even where they can get permission because the financing is so expensive.

There's a real problem for people who rely on loans to buy new cars. It's a big imposition on people to have high consumer interest rates. And Trump wants to do a really large tax cut for, you know, a corporate tax cut for business owners, some middle class tax cuts. But mostly this is going to go to high income people and it's going to come out of the pockets of people who need to borrow money, which includes, like, municipalities and small businesses who rely on bank loans to expand or to finance new equipment purchases. And I think it could be, like, really quite dire.

But I also understand mentality of people who feel like, well, they've been hearing about this forever and it's never really happened. So, you know, who cares? I want to texture out that forever for a minute, because this is one of the things that has always frustrated me about the Trump economy and the credit he gets for it. It's true, of course, that in 2011, 2012, the Obama administration makes a very big rhetorical pivot to deficit reduction. But their argument at that point is that we want to do short term stimulus spending in a very depressed economy and long term deficit reduction.

Ezra Klein
So see spending go up over the next two, three, four years as part of a ten year deal that brings it down and over and over and over again. Republicans say no. They say no to more stimulus spending. They say no to deals that would include any tax increases. Ultimately, you get these weird automatic cuts called the sequester.

But that's, that's the Obama period, right? Then Donald Trump comes in in 2017, and he comes in with a Republican House, he comes in with the Republican Senate. The speaker of the House is Paul Ryan. And the economy is stronger now. It is hotter.

The unemployment rate is lower. And what they do is they go on a jag of stimulus spending, which, as you're saying, was sort of fine from the perspective of we weren't in a position where we needed lower budget deficits. But in terms of the long run picture, you actually would have wanted to do that in a more intelligent way. You didn't need a ton of stimulus spending. You didn't need to deficit finance all of it.

I mean, this is the classic keynesian prescription, right? You do want to do some hoarding of the money when you're in a good economy. So Trump gets a bunch of credit for that because it does continue the recovery we're seeing under Obama. It does get us closer to full employment. And I think he deserves some credit for that.

But there is a way also in which he makes it then harder to respond in the future. Then you get Biden, you get the pandemic, a huge amount of stimulus spending. And now I think our debt situation is significant. Right? I mean, the thing you're worried about has happened, interest rates are much higher, inflation went up.

We do need to start doing something about the debt. And there's just this way in which the ability of Republicans to just join together and spend whatever they want when they want to do it, and the inability of Democrats to do it is really different. I mean, the Inflation Reduction act was paid for. I think that was at that point the correct move, but it was paid for. And so Trump, I think, should get some credit here.

But there is this way in which what happened was not just that Democrats had made a pivot on deficit reduction, part of that pivot was driven by Republicans who the exact second Donald Trump got into office, they abandoned it completely and began both spending and cutting taxes completely. Deficit financing in a way that has really materially affected our budget picture now. Yeah, I mean, like, it's true that as soon as Trump became president, they did deficit increasing tax cuts, but then they also did deficit increasing spending hikes. Yeah, they increased spending. It's a really important point.

Matthew Yglesias
Right? And so the Trump economy consisted of Trump getting Republicans to agree to do what Obama had been saying they should do for a long time, except without the response, responsible part where you take care of the long term future. And it's like, it's maddening, you know, and it was, it was maddening when it happened. And you could tell, I mean, one reason I wrote this article saying, like, let's chill out a little bit about Trump and the deficit is that, like, Obama people were so fired up because, you know, they'd been there for years. Right?

Like millions of people spent time unemployed because Republicans wouldn't agree to more stimulus spending. And then as soon as a Republican was president, it was like, oh, ha ha, we were just kidding, right? And it's like really one of the most cruel and sort of hideous things that's ever happened. But to your point, when Obama was president, Republicans in Congress deliberately kept the economy understimulated in order to stimulate when Trump was president. Now that Biden is president, the economy just isn't understimulated.

So that kind of cynical game isn't going to work. It's not going to achieve anything. The debt level is higher, the inflation rate is higher, interest rates are higher. The kind of expiration of Social Security and Medicare trust funds is closer in time. The labor market is in a stronger position.

And the question is like, what do we think is going to happen going forward? And Trump is doing this thing that he often does where he just says contradictory things to people, where on the one hand, there's this Trump campaign pledge that's really irresponsible fiscal policy, where we're going to have huge tax cuts and then, you know, don't even worry about it. And then you have this idea that rush Vogt is kind of leaking to people that, well, we're going to do. Do you mind saying who he is? He was the OMB director for Trump at the end of his term and is, I guess, in line for a big sort of Trump job in a second term.

He's suggesting they're going to do what's called impoundment, which I think is just illegal. And, you know, the executive branch will refuse to spend money, money that Congress has appropriated. And so if you are like a center right businessman who likes the idea of corporate tax cuts but worries about the deficit, you're supposed to think, oh, no, like, Trump gets it. You know, he's going to cut spending. But if you're like a voter at the rally, you're supposed to think, oh, don't worry about it.

Like, Trump is just bringing back the old good times. Trump speaks a lot to the public at these rallies where he just kind of rambles, but he doesn't do traditional campaign work where they release white papers that explain what it is they want to do if they are elected, and then other people can look at them. I think one of the lessons of Mitt Romney's campaign is that it is not to your advantage, if you're a Republican, to spell out the exact fiscal policy trade offs that you're trying to make. And so we're left in this sort of phantasmagoria where I hesitate, I think everybody hesitates to say, look, this is going to be a catastrophe. We really are going to be in a Greece like situation, an interest rate crisis, because nobody can tell how seriously to take Trump.

I don't want to say as a prediction of the future that if Trump wins, we're going to have, like, a budget crisis, because I honestly don't know what he's going to do. But if he does what he says he's going to do, then we are going to have a very real budgetary crisis, especially when you bring the immigration piece of this in, where things start getting even Wilder in terms of at least what he's committed to rhetorically. Well, let's bring that piece in, and let's begin by showing what he's saying rhetorically. On my first day back in the White House, I will terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration.

Donald Trump
We'll stop the invasion on our southern border and begin the largest domestic deportation operation in american history. We have no choice. We have no choice. Not like we have a choice. I will shift massive portions of federal law enforcement.

Ezra Klein
All right. The largest deportation operation in american history. Trump has been saying this a lot. There are obviously ethical dimensions of it. But let me ask you about two other dimensions.

One, does he have the authority to do this, or does it have to be an act of Congress? And two, what are the consequences of a multimillion person deportation operation on the economy? Traditionally, people have found that it is challenging to deport large numbers of people because you have to first find somebody who's in the country without authorization. You have to detain them. You then have to prove that they actually are an illegal immigrant.

Matthew Yglesias
Right. I mean, when this is talked about by politicians, they often act as if ICE agents have, like, x ray vision. But, you know, just because you might think somebody is here illegally, that doesn't mean you've, like, proven the case. Right? And so litigating the whole thing, actually going through deportation, getting them back to their home country, is all very kind of resource intensive.

And so in practice, like when Donald Trump was president, the pace of deportations didn't really go up relative to where it had been under Obama. Obama deported people at a higher rate than George W. Bush had because the number of personnel dedicated to it went up due to some laws that passed in Bush's term. Long story short, Trump is saying, and like Stephen Miller has suggested to reporters, that they're going to address this by basically, like, bringing in people who aren't immigration personnel, right. That they're going to deputize local law enforcement, that they might bring the National Guard into it, that they are going to construct detention centers, all these kinds of things.

Anything you do like that there's going to be lawsuits, there's going to be people in Congress complaining. I don't really know what's going to happen. I find people speculating about judicial rulings to be a little bit hard to parse. But if it were to happen, Trump says he wants to shrink the workforce by millions of people. You can see tables and it says that like, 23% of construction laborers in the United States are estimated to be undocumented workers.

Say you could somehow make all those people disappear, right. Home building is going to collapse and. Become much more expensive. Right. I mean, if you look at like one sector and you say, okay, well, we're going to get rid of 22% of maids and housekeeping cleaners are undocumented.

So, you know, they are all get deported, right. It's sad for them then, for the labor force. Well, you've got to raise pay. And so that's good for people who remain, but the cost of living goes up. But if you do this across the board, right across sectors, you are talking about millions and millions of people.

And if you think through the implications of that, it makes the debt burden worse, it makes the inflation situation worse. I don't want to say, and nobody wants to say that this is like great economic policy, to have eleven to 12 million people in the country without permission, working under the table, using maybe fake Social Security numbers, maybe just getting paid cash. But the reason why there used to be a strong bipartisan push for some kind of legalization on top of border security measures is that, that the cost to the economy of actually getting rid of all of the undocumented workers would be very, very, very high. So it seems much more practical to come up with a system to legalize at least most of them and then focus deportation resources on people who are committing other crimes, people who aren't working, people who are sneaking across the border right away. I mean, again, Trump was president, right?

The natural question to ask with any of these scare stories is like, well, you know, he was president before. And like, what happened here when Trump was president, he just, he didn't step up interior enforcement. He talked a lot about it. He said on the campaign trail where there's going to be a deportation force, he didn't do that. None of that happened.

Now he says he's going to do it more so than before. And his team says they've worked out the logistical problems and they, they seem to enjoy it when liberal journalists write these scare stories. Oh, he's going to do concentration camps, you heard in that clip. It's a huge applause line for him that he's going to do the biggest deportation of all time. He doesn't say that when I was president, I did the biggest deportation of all time because he didn't.

So it's hard to get your mind around, right, the legality, the logistics. But if you were able to do it, the consequences would be quite devastating. This interacts with the giant tariff plan in a strange way. So take agriculture. I'm californian.

Ezra Klein
We have a big ag industry. A huge percentage of agricultural workers are undocumented immigrants. So you might imagine the theory of the tariff plan is that, well, we import a bunch of fruits and vegetables, we're going to make them more expensive, but at least the ones that we can grow in the US, that's going to be a boon to the domestic agricultural industry. But if you at the same time, wipe out a bunch of the domestic agricultural workforce, what you have is going to be very, very highly inflationary because you can't change domestic production. In fact, domestic production may well drop.

It's also potentially contractionary. Something people like Larry Summers have begun talking about is the idea that Trump's policies could lead to stagflation, this sort of mixture of high inflation and low growth, which was predicted under Biden. Whatever happened, we've had high growth. How do you see that possibility of stagflation? Yeah.

Matthew Yglesias
And, you know, I should add, I mean, we are talking about deportation of undocumented immigrants, but Trump is also proposing cuts to legal immigration. So I think five or 6% of the total labor force is undocumented immigrants, 20% is immigrants in total. Right. Which is a lot of legal immigrants. So Trump is saying he wants to deport undocumented people.

He's saying he wants to cut off the flow of asylum seekers. He's saying he wants to reduce the number of visas that are issued. And so with that smaller workforce, we're going to make more stuff at home. No, we're just going to make less stuff overall, right? I mean, it's a very literal, if you kind of forget about prices, right?

If you just think about quantities, the United States of America is going to produce less stuff with fewer workers. We have right now in the United States, a very large number of people who are retired, population has aged, but they're consuming things, goods and services, and they're not producing anything. And so we're going to shrink the number of people in the United States to produce things for them, and we're going to make it harder for them to buy things from, from abroad. And so what's going to happen, right? Like, is my dad at age 70, he's going to go to the Central Valley and start picking fruit because we got rid of the immigrants.

Like, does that make sense? Its basic implication is, yes. I mean, a sharply lower rate of economic growth that isn't addressable through stimulus, thus shrinking the productive capacity of the american economy. Unless you believe in, like, a really magical impact of these tax cuts, which seems to be what Trump's business community supporters are counting on, or they're just counting on him to, like, not do the stuff that he does. Yeah, I think they're counting on him to not do a mass deportation.

Ezra Klein
I think when you read their thinking on him, it's that he doesn't do the crazier things he says he's going to do. And so we're just going to get the tax cuts, but he's not going to deport millions of workers. And maybe he won't. But there is a weird way in which I don't think you can. You cannot cover a presidential candidate and just assume that every single thing they say about policy cannot be taken seriously.

Like, it's just not a, it's just not a reasonable way to think about elections. Maybe he will deport millions of people, maybe he won't. But the guy has, like, four articulated policy ideas, and this is the one he talks about, I would say the most. And so I think you have to take it seriously. At the very least, you have to take it seriously as his theory of how the economy should work.

Right. Maybe the deep state will stop him from running a mass deportation campaign, but Donald Trump clearly thinks it would be a good idea to run a mass deportation campaign. And I want to pick up on something, which is that we consume two things, goods and services. The way the universe based tariff differs from, say, an across the board consumption tax. Like a VAT is it taxes goods, but it doesn't really tax services.

Right. It applies to an imported good, but it doesn't apply to a house cleaner, or it doesn't apply to a physical therapist or a doctor or. A lot of the american economy is the provision of services. This does. If you do mass deportation, a huge percentage of the undocumented immigrant workforce works in services, things like childcare.

And people need childcare. They really can't go without it unless they then leave the labor force. Right. If child care becomes significantly more expensive because a large percentage of child care workers are undocumented immigrants, then the only way for a lot of american families to manage the resulting price increase in child care is to pull usually the mother, but does not have to be out of the workforce so they can provide their own childcare. But one way or another, this would strike at a place the tariff doesn't, which is the price of services in America.

Matthew Yglesias
I think the Biden administration has struggled to talk about the impact of full employment on labor intensive services, right. You hear people complaining about how much a Big Mac costs under Biden, right. And it's true that the price of fast food has gone up a lot. A contributor to inflation is something that's salient to people, but that's a consequence of the strength of the economy, right. When you have a strong labor market, the relative price of labor intensive services goes up.

People aren't always happy with that. I like to say, as a globalist, cosmopolitan, this shows that immigration could be win win, right? That we could bring more people to do work that is low paid by american standards, but high paid by the standards of Guatemala or Venezuela or Haiti. And everybody benefits. That's a tough sell to the public, which has various concerns.

But Trump wants to roll it back in the opposite direction. And there may be some benefits to that. You know, you won't have the same number, maybe, of, like, buskers on the subway or other things that are bothering people, but the material economic cost of that will be large. Well, there is an answer from immigration restrictionists on the economics here, and it's that we will pay american born, or at least legal resident workers more. And that, look, there is a price at which Americans will pick strawberries, a price at which they currently, and more of them would paint or lay roofs or whatever it might be.

Ezra Klein
And this is a very straightforward policy to raise the wages of Americans and that labor force participation is up, but it's not at 100% of prime age workers, and it could go higher than it is now. And so the conversation you and I are having here reflects a lack of faith. It's buying into tenets of neoliberalism, which is to say that people only do these jobs at low wages, but no, the wages will go up. More people do the jobs, and it would be fine, and we would have a healthier native born and legally resident workforce. Yeah, I mean, you know, if you think about just like one sector of the economy, right?

Matthew Yglesias
That's clearly true. Right? If we kicked out all the british political pundits from America, that's maybe just more opportunities for native born takesters like me. If you do it across the board, though, the question is like, yeah, like the nominal wages for everybody can go up, but the actual human beings have to come from somewhere. So is the idea that women are going to have fewer are kids and so nobody will need to be out on maternity leave?

Is the idea that people aren't going to retire and they're going to do the work? Because that's certainly possible, right? I mean, if you were talking about a traditional republican administration, you might say, look, we're going to get rid of immigrants, we're going to cut taxes, we're going to cut Social Security, we're going to cut Medicare, and we're going to have the labor force participation for people over 60 going way up, right? And that's how Japan, for example, has dealt with the shrinkage of its workforce, is that people are working longer and longer into their kind of twilight years. And that, like, works mathematically.

Japan is both a lot poorer than the United States. And also people can't retire as young as they're able to in the United States. That sounds worse to me, but it functions. If you want to make that pitch, you know, that's fine. I'd like to hear it and I'd like to debate it.

But a lot of this stems from a kind of myths, right? So when the last jobs report came out, it showed that 200 something thousand new jobs had been created. And so Biden and the Democrats were like, this is great. The Biden economy is splendid. It's amazing.

And then conservatives came up with these counter charts and they were like, ah, but the number of native born Americans employed has gone down and the number of foreign born people has gone up. And so it's like the immigrants are taking all your jobs. But then you look at it mathematically, and what's happened is that the number of working age native born Americans getting jobs has gone up, but more and more Americans are retired. And I think that that would have to be the source of the additional labor. And it's not that I lack faith in the ability of the american people to delay retirement and, you know, keep swinging hammers to bear the load of this new, poorer America that Donald Trump is building.

It's that, I don't think that that's desirable. I don't think that that's the vision that is being pitched to us by Trump and by Republicans. They are making it out to be that there's some huge group of secret unemployed people somewhere. But, you know, there's a lot of people who work part time. And so you'll sometimes see people working to that, that, oh, well, all these jobs, they're part time jobs, but you can disaggregate that into who are the people who say they're part time for economic reasons, meaning, like, they want to work full time hours versus who are the people who are part time?

Because, you know, maybe they've got kids in school and so they like having a part time job, and then they pick their kids up. And it's mostly the latter. It's people who say they prefer a part time job. Now, you can create the economic circumstances in which they can't have the life that they want. They have to work full time hours, they can't go to school, they can't retire.

But that sounds like a lot worse to me. But at least it would be a sort of a healthy, honest debate rather than this slightly fantastical one. We've been talking about immigrant labor, primarily here in lower wage, lower skill roles. But high skill immigrant labor is actually a pretty important part of the economy and a place where a lot of growth and talent comes from in the industries that have an outsized effect on driving american growth and income, software engineers and skilled semiconductor engineers from other countries. And it does have some effect, potentially, on native born wages, but can have a much larger effect on the actual innovative output of the american economy.

Ezra Klein
But I feel like in the overall fight over immigration right now, and particularly asylum seekers, that this sort of endless trillion dollar bill lying on the sidewalk for America keeps not getting picked up because Biden wants to look not as hard on immigration as Trump, but tough on immigration. Right. He's just announced a bunch of new proposals and executive actions on the border recently. And so there's no real constituency anymore that seemed to be prioritizing high skill immigration, even though of the things that America seems able to do to affect its long term growth trajectory, very little has as much bang for the buck. Yeah, I mean, I think that's true in Congress, it's blocked because Republicans have decided that they don't like immigrants.

Matthew Yglesias
And Democrats take the view that legislative changes to immigration have to be comprehensive. Right. That's a construct going back to, was it 2006, 2007? You know, we were young when this all started. And it continued through the big push in 2013.

Ezra Klein
The idea is that's the thing that the business community wants. So if you're going to get the business community as a pressure group for comprehensive immigration reform, you need to hold that chip out, because if they get high skill immigration for nothing, then they're not going to be there when you need them to push a bigger, more comprehensive bill over the finish line with Republicans. Exactly. And so Darryl Issa had a bill in Obama's second term that was just like, let's let more foreign stem workers in. And it seemed great.

Matthew Yglesias
And I don't really understand why some, somebody would object to it on the merits, but Democrats in Congress wouldn't go for it because they're holding out for this kind of larger deal. And then I remember during the lame duck, after Biden won the election, but before he was in, I was talking to some democratic leaders in Congress, and I said, like, you know, would you guys consider revisiting your opposition to kind of piecemeal immigration reform? And they said, you know, it's going to depend on what the groups think. But, you know, the strategic calculus is still there. An interesting thing about the bipartisan border security bill that Biden pushed for, that most Democrats voted for initially and that Trump ultimately spiked, is that that involved Democrats getting off sort of the comprehensive hill.

Right. It didn't have a skilled immigration part, but the old view had been, you know, skilled immigration, border security, and a path to citizenship are like a three legged stool, and the whole stool has to go together. Democrats showed that they came under enough political pressure from the public that they said, well, we can actually do border security on its own. Or rather, it became a new stool in which it was linked to Ukraine and Israel and other kinds of stuff. And that made immigration advocates very unhappy.

You know, immigration advocates who didn't necessarily have a huge problem on the merits with the border security bill were like, wait, no, like, we can't do this without doing protections for our people. And that's one reason why when it came up for a vote the second time in the Senate, detached from the foreign aid stuff, it got much less democratic support. So, you know, one move you could see in the future is Democrats moving off this kind of comprehensive construct and saying, look, we need to address border security because it's something the public is demanding. We need to address skilled immigration because it's just a good idea and it will suit the needs of the economy. And then dreamers, temporary protected status recipients, other undocumented people who we sympathize with are just gonna be kind of left in limbo like, I think that would be a shame.

I sympathize with the comprehensive immigration construct, but we're also now into year, we're past year 15 of this construct, and it has not delivered what it was supposed to. And so I, I mean, I can see the case for moving off of it.

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Speaking of another way politics is changing, Donald Trump appoints, somewhat unexpectedly, this interesting economic policy analyst who many of us used to call up at the bipartisan Policy center to talk about the debt ceiling. This guy named Jay Powell to the Federal Reserve, and he becomes chair, and he does, I think, a really quite great job. And Donald Trump has now turned quite a bit on Powell, some of his tweets on this saying, and this is in 2019, to be fair, but that the Federal Reserve should get our interest rate down to zero or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. Interest costs could be brought way down. He calls Jay Powell a bonehead.

He says, my only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi? I think it is reasonable to say that Trump will not reappoint Powell if he wins the election and wants to appoint somebody who will be more pliant to him. If he does appoint somebody who is considered by markets to be more pliant to him, particularly while he is pursuing a bunch of these other policies we've talked about, what is the consequence of that for inflation? This is a real case of sort of republican president privilege, right? I mean, if you think about, if there was a Republican in the White House and his democratic opponent was saying, I want to increase the budget deficit, do trade protection and fire the Fed chair so that we can do interest rate cuts like Wall street would be losing their minds over that, right?

Matthew Yglesias
They'd be saying, like, this is a catastrophe. We're going to tip into the worst case, like hyperinflation, like total catastrophe, et cetera, et cetera. Now, you know, if you're a Republican, you do get more latitude from investors and from Wall street about this kind of thing. They like Republicans. They like them on taxes, they like them on regulation, but they also trust them.

Right? Like, they feel in their hearts that, that, like, Democrats listen to a lot of left wing college professors and that Republicans listen to smart, admirable businessmen. But on its face, if you cut short term interest rates while increasing the deficit and shrinking the workforce, you're going to have a total loss of credibility of the central bank, of credibility in the currency. The value of the dollar is going to go down. One of the Trump administration leaks is that they want the value of the dollar to go down because that's supposed to help manufacturing.

That would be really bad for inflation because he's a Republican, like Steven Schwartzman and Bill Ackman. And all these guys who have some problem with Biden are, like, not talking about this. They don't care. There's no problem. These are all big kind of hedge funders and finance guys you're mentioning here.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Finance guys for Trump. I mean, guys, you know what they're talking about. Um, look, when Trump was president, before we had this mini freak out, oh, he's going to fire Janet Yellen. He's going to put a hack in.

But he put in Jay Powell, who was fine, who was good, you know, and it was back channeled to me. And I'm sure you, too, at the, at the time, like, people were like, oh, Powell, like, he's good. He's solid. And, you know, we knew him. He was a bipartisan policy center guy, moderate Republican, and it was all fine.

Maybe it'll be fine, right? Maybe Trump will take out his personal sense of grievance on Jay Powell. He'll lose his job, but, like, that's fine. He's, you know, he's in his seventies. He doesn't, like, need the gig.

And Trump will just put in someone else who's reasonable. That could happen, or we could have a catastrophe. And I always, I'm never sure how to talk about the frontiers of what Trump says he's going to do because I don't want people to hear me forecasting that, like, we are going to deport millions of people and cut interest rates to zero and add $5 trillion to the deficit and raise the price of all groceries. Because I'm not the one saying that's what Trump is going to do. Trump is the one saying that that's what Trump is going to do.

If you do that, the consequences for the basic financial welfare of american households is going to be catastrophic. If you feel, I mean, if you went to a fundraiser with him and he told you secretly, I'm not going to do any of that stuff, good for you. If you know exactly what he's saying he's not going to do, you should tell the world. It's challenging, journalistically to cover someone who is known for lying a lot, because people who are on his side wield that. Like, well, he doesn't mean that you can't take him so literally.

All I really know how to do is cover what he's saying. Saying. And what he's saying is that he's going to combine an inflationary fiscal policy with an inflationary monetary policy, which is going to. It's not just going to raise inflation. Right.

It's going to de anchor inflation expectations, as the economists say. Right. Even when prices were going up a lot in 2022, I believed that the Fed would raise interest rates and bring inflation back down. And that's why what happened under Trump, if we go from 3% inflation to four, five, six, and he is installing cronies at the Fed and he's keeping interest rates down, and he's saying, well, I'm going to do this like debt refinancing, as if I'm a real estate baron. I'm going to say, I don't know what's going to happen next.

Right. Like, I think this guy is just compromising the long term stability of the country for his short term interests, and I'm not going to want to make any kind of long term investments in the United States, and that would be really bad. I mean, we are accustomed in the United States of America to basic financial policy kind of happening between the 40 yard lines. And Trump is saying, no, I'm gonna go, like, way out there, out of sample stuff. The kinds of things that we've seen in foreign countries go catastrophically, but that we have no experience of in the United States.

Ezra Klein
I find two things hard about covering Trump and forecasting this. So one is that he is so limited about the policies that he actually discusses. So for all that, he's constantly out there giving these hour, hour and a half, two hour rambling rallies. He just kind of repeats himself a lot. He doesn't lay out lists of policies, and his campaign doesn't release white papers with bullet points.

And a lot of the things he does talk about are these massive and arguably symbolic policies. So what happens is people then begin covering things like the 2025 plan from heritage and others. And there are these huge plans that are by a kind of integrated world of think tanks and conservative policy entrepreneurs. And maybe, but Trump has never endorsed that. And then there's a question of personnel.

So people should go back and think about who Trump ended up appointing. Right at the beginning. You have him come in and name a bunch of highly credentialed people who either are the sort of people who he wanted respect from, or the sort of people who were recognizing, recommended to him or pushed to him by others in the party because he didn't know how to do this and did not have his own people. So Gary Cohn, who's Goldman Sachs guy, becomes his national economics Council lead. Stephen Mnookin, another Goldman Sachs guy, becomes his treasury secretary.

You have HR McMasters at national security. You have Rex Tillerson, Exxon's former CEO at state. You have all these people who are not coming out of a weird Trumpist subculture. They're coming out of the commanding heights of american business and the military, but most of them have a very bad experience. So Tillerson famously blows up with Trump.

McMasters famously blows up with Donald Trump. Gary Cohn, I think, does not look back on his time there fondly. And over time, much more of the Republican Party becomes oriented towards Donald Trump. And there emerges of this big under 40 year old cadre of Republicans and conservatives coming up who don't, I think, see Trump so cynically as this weird, intuitive politician who they can use to pursue their interest in ideology. They sort of believe that they are defining Trumpism.

Right? They're coming behind this great leader and creating the thing that he's talking about. So there are many more people now who are much more personally committed to him and his control over the party. I mean, his daughter in law is the RNC chair now. His control of the party is much more foundational.

And so the people who at one point were bringing him candidates like Jay Powell for Federal Reserve, we don't know who those people will be next time. Right? I mean, Donald Trump didn't get to Powell because he liked the bipartisan policy center. Like somebody brought him Powell. So I do just think it's, on the one hand, hard to cover this appropriately, but on the other hand, I think, reasonable to think it would be different in a second term.

Matthew Yglesias
You know, two perspectives on this I've gotten is, you know, one person who was a career person, who was a detailee to the National Security Council for several years. Trump's administration told me, you've got to tell people, like, the people who are going to be running the show in a second term are totally different. They're way crazier. It's much scarier. It's going to be much worse.

Another person I know who was not that important political appointee under Trump in his first term said, you liberals, like, you get this all wrong. Like, the deal with Trump is that now he's not controlled by the conservative movement, he controls them, and he can be much more pragmatic than a conventional president, that Biden is like hostage to all these liberal interest groups, but that Trump is just going to try to make good decisions as he sees it. Those are consistent with the, each other as observations about the world, but not the same observation about the world. And it heightens the uncertainty as to, like, what is actually going on or what anybody thinks is practical and what anybody thinks is crazy. Trump's coalition right now contains both people who insist that he's going to be much tougher on China than Joe Biden and tougher on Iran, and a huge foreign policy hawk, and people who say that, no, Trump is the peace candidate who's going to unwind all this great power conflict that's happened under Biden.

Those things can't both be true, right? He can't both be the candidate of Project 2025 who's going to eliminate the deep state and govern without constraint, and also be the kind of pragmatic moderate who signed the CARES act. But he keeps us. That's all guessing. He's a great entertainer on that level.

And so new people are going to be coming in, and it seems more likely than not to me that the quality of the decision making is going to be much worse. That something we saw on January 6 was a number of Trump administration cabinet people made these kind of protest gestures and resigned. It didn't really matter. There was only one to two weeks left in his administration. But they wanted to show that their people of integrity and decency.

And now Trump knows who the people of integrity and decency are, and he's not going to bring them back. You know, we're going to have the people who were like, this is fine. Like, let's. Let's do insurrections. And that's not great.

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Ezra Klein
Going back to the Fed issue, one of the things about most candidates is, particularly when they get to the point where they're a presidential nominee, is they're so well associated with different factions in their own party that you can kind of tell what would be the sort of list of figures they would draw from. But Trump, as you say, is not really connected to the old Republican Party. And the Trump Republican Party is, in a way, still being born. We would really see it emerging in this second term. You can look back at what he did at the Federal Reserve or who he wanted to put on in his first term on the board, which I think is interesting.

So Jay Powell was this very establishment pick. He made, in many ways, a very surprising pick. But if you look at people they nominated, it got way weirder. So they nominated Herman Cain, the former presidential candidate who, like, ran a pizza company for a long time. They nominated Judy Shelton, who was somebody who had wanted the US to go back onto the gold standard.

These nominations didn't work out for them, but there was something happening in the Trump administration where that top nomination he was convinced to make Powell his other nominees to the Federal Reserve Board did not look like that. There's a tendency for the people who are most loyal to Trump personally and who he likes best to be people who have very fringy ideas. He really likes people who have weird ideas about things, people who deviate really far from kind of consensus and from professional norms. For all the reporting that's happened on the Trump years, I think we don't quite know exactly what was the deal with Steve Mnuchin and how did he become treasury secretary and why. And he was surprisingly reasonable.

Matthew Yglesias
It turned out, about all kinds of things and did a pretty good job. But there were this handful of walk on characters who were not well known in DC, who aren't political establishment types, kind of like, kept things together. Are they coming back? Like, what's going on? Trump knows a lot of Wall street people.

I would think those people could talk him out of, like, completely destroying the Federal Reserve's credibility. But again, it's what he's saying. I think it's hard to discount just this kind of stated posture of Trump, that he has these ideas that don't make sense and that he wants to judge people based on their loyalty to him, which means people who are at least willing to pretend to agree with ideas that don't make sense, and that's quite dangerous. I want to go to something you said about Trump having sort of weird ideas. I think a way to read him, which is something you were getting at earlier, is Trump has very strong economic intuitions.

Ezra Klein
I mean, the guy is a businessman. He didn't just play one on television. To the extent he's a businessman. He was both a marketer. Marketer and a real estate guy.

And real estate people, they like low interest rates. Trump had intuitions about trade that were probably somewhat suppressed in the american political system and that there was, at least on China, some real room to move in that direction. And so I think one way of reading Trump is that he had a set of intuitions that paired or matched with the actual situation in the american economy. And american policy politics in 2016 or 2017 did not really lead to disaster. He wanted to spend more money.

He wanted to cut taxes. He wanted to run the economy fairly hot, and it was a fairly good time for all of that. He wanted to push a little bit on trade, and there's probably too much bipartisan consensus on trade before him. So pushing it back a little bit was not only not the end of the world, but maybe even healthy, but that economy had very certain dynamics, and it had very certain problems. And the problem coming out of the Obama economy was an unfinished economic recovery on the employment side, and now the employment side is pretty tight, and the issue is affordability of things like housing.

The issue has been inflation. And just not only has Trump not changed, as best I can tell, not only has he not come up with a new theory of what's going on, nor have the people around him, but he's just going harder in the same direction he was in 2017. Just nothing has updated, but the situation has flipped almost entirely. And put aside what you think about which of these policies he will actually enact. The fact that we'd be electing a guy with a theory of the economy that is completely now out of date to the economic problems we actually have, that's meaningful.

Like, that's a real problem. The bet on Trump is that he was really, really insightful in coming to all these conclusions about the situation in 2017 and that he continues to be an insightful person and that anything he says to the contrary is, like, just B's. But it looks to me like Trump was just lucky, you know, that he. I also, I hesitate to give him, like, too much credit for the strong economy in the first three years of his presidency, because, you know, you look at any kind of, like, lines on a chart and, like, things were fine when Trump was president, but there's no, there's no, like, breakpoint, right, where, like, from 2016. No.

He created fewer jobs per month in the first three years of his presidency than Obama did in the last three years of his presidency. Right, exactly. So it's like, if you told people, oh, no, that was just like Obama's third term, and for some reason, he'd, like, put Republicans on the Supreme Court, you'd say, yeah, okay, it seems fine. The slow but steady recovery continued to be slow and steady. I mean, I've been frustrated that Biden has not pivoted as much as I think he should in response to full employment and the rise of inflation.

Matthew Yglesias
He will often talk as if it's still 2021 and, you know, we need to create jobs. But there has been some turn from him. You know, there has been a move toward talking about reducing the deficit. The Inflation Reduction act was not, like, a huge deal for inflation, but it was disinflationary. They have retooled their agenda to some extent to deal with the problems that have arisen during their presidency.

And they've shown on immigration a real willingness to change direction in the face of events that were not unfolding the way they wanted them to. Trump is not telling us that he has any sensitivity to events or the way that the world has changed. He's just insisting that his presence in the White House will miraculously, like, reverse the directionality of time. And I don't think that that's true. You often get this question about whether Democrats should run against Donald Trump as a unique threat to democracy or whether they should try to run against him more as a normal Republican.

Ezra Klein
A guy with bad economic ideas is, and I don't want to say you can't do both or even more than both. I do think there's some degree to which voters can hold a number of thoughts in their head, but this is something that I don't really see them running on, which is not that Trump is just like a normal Republican with normal bad republican ideas, like cutting Medicaid and cutting Social Security and cutting taxes on rich people, but he's actually uniquely ill suited to the moment. And maybe it's just too hard of a case to make because people associate him with lower prices. But one of the things about this agenda that I find interesting is it is not hard to understand. There's often in Republican Party policymaking, a lot of effort going into hiding the balls.

You have these huge tax cut packages that have a lot of middle class tax cuts that are there in part to obscure the giant upper class tax cuts, or you have these complicated deregulatory proposals and with Trumpets, really, right there. I mean, it's a proposal to add 10% to the cost of all goods or materials coming in over the border. It is a mass deportation plan that is both, ethically, I think, quite horrendous. The image you were laying out earlier of trying to deputize this huge internal security force to, I guess, go house to house and pull people out of homes to try to prove they're unauthorized immigrants and get them on a plane, I mean, it's a hell of a thing to think about, but also just. He would just lose a lot of workers.

His tax cuts. He just does want to do more tax cuts for corporations and rich people. He's been very straightforward about that. But also, there is a simplicity to the way he thinks about policy that makes it easy to understand what side he is on. And this year, he has just come up with some really dumb policies, and particularly the giant tariff plan.

I know it's assumed that Trump is right, that people just think of everything as a zero sum fight between us and other countries. I don't really think that's true at this level. This idea that you're going to add 10% to anything that Canada or France makes, but also 60% to anything China makes, maybe it polls well, but I have more confidence in one's ability to explain to the electorate what something means in that. It just feels to me like, as much as Trump sees inflation as a good issue for him, he has really created the raw material of it becoming a bad issue for him, because, I mean, it is the most simple possible policies to raise prices you could possibly imagine. Yeah.

Matthew Yglesias
And, you know, I mean, I do think you've seen some pivot from the Biden campaign to talk about this a little bit more. I've seen, you know, more articles in different newspapers being like, eh, these Trump policies, they seem like they're gonna make things more expensive. You and I have been having this very neoliberal conversation here, and that's, like, where I'm at seven days a week these days, churning out these takes about supply and demand and housing, regulation and zoning and how immigrants are good, et cetera, et cetera. But there's a lot of equity that's been built up in progressive politics, in the nonprofit space in the advocacy space and to an extent in the White House, in the idea that, like, we are transcending neoliberalism and moving into like, a grand new era of industrial policy and, you know, we gonna have a care economy and all these kind of other things. And I think that those ideas get in the way sometimes of people on the left articulating that just kind of straightforward case against Trump because it positions, positions Biden as a status quo figure, which, like, is what the incumbent president is.

And they don't like that necessarily. And I think it's preventing them from just making the most normal down the middle pitch, which is like, Trump wants to blow a hole in the deficit with $5 trillion of tax cuts, raise taxes on your avocados, and then, like, maybe destroy democracy to prevent interest rates from going up. Like, it's bad. But it does require Biden to sort of position himself as a defender of orthodoxy, which I feel like if you look at the long trajectory of Joe Biden as a person, is a role that he should be very comfortable in. But isn't the Persona that this administration taken on?

Ezra Klein
I think there's a lot of truth to that. But I do think at some point, you have to accept a real thing that has happened in american politics, which is Democrats are the party of normalcy to some degree, and Republicans have become a party of a more burn it all down politics. And the point is not here that the status quo, but the point is you want to retain institutions and basic normal policymaking capacity and elections. And that's the Democratic Party coalition. It's a coalition now of a lot of institutions, including a lot of businesses.

The Republican Party used to be this more institutional coalition, and now the Democratic Party is. And I think Biden has some trouble making this argument cleanly, both for coalitional reasons and for reasons just related to his own politics and campaigning style now. But Trump really, I think, opens this up. Like, if you look at the kind of Democrats who have been winning in swing states, people like Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer and Jared polis, you see this very workaday, like, focused on the problems of the people, not huge grand ambitions and agendas, and they're winning the places that Joe Biden needs to win. I mean, Tammy Baldwin is expected to win in Wisconsin.

She's not the most thrillingly charismatic or ambitious politician, but she's a politician people believe is going to be out there working on their issues day in and day out. Tony Evers, the governor of Wisconsin, again, you don't flock from miles to listen to his speeches, but he's somebody who people trust to pave the roads and manage the economy well. And Trump, I mean, the weird thing about Trump is that he's such an erratic, wild figure, and yet he's now become associated with a kind of economic normalcy. And it's axiomatic in a lot of politics, politics that you don't just have to go after your opponent's weakness, you have to go after their strength, and they have to go after Trump's strength. If at the end of the day, come November, people still give Trump a huge double digit advantage on running the economy, it's going to be hard, maybe not impossible, depending on what else Donald Trump does, but hard for Biden to win.

But this is a really bad policy agenda, and if people understood it, it would be very unpopular. People do not want to pay more for everything. That is, like, the core Bolton center of american politics right now. People do not like what a cup of coffee costs. And here is Donald Trump with an unambiguous plan to make a cup of coffee more expensive.

Like, you just can't get away from it. So, look, you have Trump laying out a hyperinflationary agenda on a platter, and I think it's fair to say that Biden is not effectively taken advantage of that. So what do you think he needs to do? I can come on your podcast and say, this is going to put Boeing at a huge disadvantage relative to Airbus and comac in winning export contracts if you are putting tariffs on all these intermediate goods. But I think that to people who are skeptical, they're going to be like, well, of course Joe Biden and Matt and Ezra are saying this.

Matthew Yglesias
That doesn't convince me. What would be convincing would be if the CEO of Boeing was saying, look, I don't wanna wade into partisan politics, but, like, this 10% universal tariff thing, that's gonna, like, wreck my company. And people are not saying that. You know, you are not hearing from corporate America that I don't think it's a good idea to pour fiscal fuel on the fire while talking about comparable, compromising the independence of the Federal Reserve. What's going to happen to the price of a whopper if you deport 20% of the people who work in meatpacking plants?

Like, that's something that the CEO of Burger King could say to the world. And unfortunately, I think the Biden administration has done a better job of convincing business executives that, like, he's a true blue economic populist than he has. If convinced, convincing working class voters of that. And so it means you're out there with a guy who's leading in the polls, running on an agenda that, like, on its face, would be completely contrary to what the public says they want. And nobody's saying that.

Ezra Klein
It's interesting, there was a politico piece about Wall street just coming back to Donald Trump and major Wall street figures coming out to support him. And they have this quote from Kathy Wild, who is president and CEO of the Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit organization that represents a city, state, top business leaders. And she says Republicans are telling her, quote, the threat to capitalism from the Democrats is more concerning than the threat to democracy from Trump. There's something wild about that. I mean, Democrats are in charge and the stock market is at record highs.

But I think it gets to that dynamic you're talking about. This piece is full of, you know, Wall Streeters talking about how Joe Biden is bad and maybe Donald Trump will be fine, but you don't have a lot of quotes from, say, Jamie Dimon in just saying sort of the obvious thing, which is that, oh, all of our research divisions say that if you reelect Donald Trump and he does anything like what he's talking about, it will be terrible for inflation and probably for us. I think it's, like, paradoxical, right? Like, what has actually happened under the Biden administration is there was a big fiscal stimulus that was designed to get us to full employment. That worked.

Matthew Yglesias
People can argue it went a little bit too far, but whatever. I mean, it did what it was supposed to do. There was a bill to subsidize technology neutral carbon free energy, which has happened. There was a move to kind of establish consensus on a strategic approach to China that differs from the Bush Obama approach. And that's it.

Right? There's no nationalization of industry, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But there are more left wings, wing people in positions of influence and authority than there used to be. You wrote a column early in the Biden administration, I think, in maybe March or April of 2021, about how economics, PhDs and people with Wall street experience had kind of like less purchase in Biden world than they had under Obama or Bill Clinton. So there's just, like, a mismatch where, like, I feel like that reality has not generated really dramatic left wing policy in any area, but it has created a lot of alienating vibes among, you know, people are good at rationalizing things.

Like, what is definitely true is that Donald Trump will deliver a large tax cut directly to the pockets of wealthy people. And so if you're in that position, you're going to want to believe that the guy who's gonna give you money is good and that there's, like, important reasons to support him. And so he's a little bit pushing on an open door there. But I think that it's been problematic for Biden to sort of elevate more leftist intellectuals in a way that hasn't delivered, like, dramatic policy change, but seems to have really hurt his perception among small numbers of influential people whose opinion I think could really matter. I think that's a good place to end.

Ezra Klein
Always. Our final question. What are three books you'd recommend to the audience? Oh, man. You know, I've been prepping on this the whole time, so, you know, a few books I wanted to just pick books I've been reading recently, not necessarily the all time classics, but Linda Flanagan has a book called taking Back the game, which is about sort of like high pressure youth sports, which as the parent of a nine year old boy, I've become very cognizant of.

Matthew Yglesias
It's a weirdly problematic social crisis for America that I think people should care more about. Eric Klein's book 1177, the year civilization collapsed, has been recommended to me by so many people over the years. I finally read it. It's fantastic. This is about things that happened thousands of years ago, but it's really interesting.

And I came across a book by a guy named Paul Dixon called the rise of the GI army that's about the effort to sort of build up the world War two american military before Pearl harbor, and really making the case that the kind of wisdom of the people who saw in 1939 that America was going to need a powerful military in the future. It's really interesting. I mean, it's hard to find foresight in politics, and it's nice to see that, you know, at least in the past, it's been possible. Matt Iglesias, thank you very much. Thank you.

Ezra Klein
This episode of the Ezra Klein show is produced by Roland who fact checking by Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker mixing by Isaac Jones with Amin Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show's production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith, and Chris Dinl. Original music by Israel Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Christina Samielewski and Shannon Busta.

The executive producer of New York Times opinion audio is Annie Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Sonia Herrero, Adam Posen, and Michael Strain.

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