What Nenshi's win means for the NDP, Alberta, and Danielle Smith

This episode analyzes the implications of Nahed Nenshi's victory as the new leader of the Alberta NDP, considering its impact on provincial politics and future clashes with Premier Danielle Smith.

1. Nahed Nenshi won the Alberta NDP leadership with a historic vote count, signaling strong support within the party.
2. Nenshi’s victory is seen as a transformative moment for the Alberta NDP, potentially redefining its future direction and strategy.
3. The episode highlights the potential for significant policy debates between Nenshi and Premier Danielle Smith, particularly on education and health.
4. There is discussion about the strategic advantages and challenges of Nenshi's lack of a legislative seat.
5. The surge in NDP membership around the election indicates a growing engagement and support base that could influence future elections.

1: The Victory

Nenshi's leadership win and its immediate impact on the Alberta NDP are discussed. The chapter captures the excitement and significance of the moment. Kelly Cryderman: "He won by a lot. He received almost 63,000 votes."

2: Political Background

Insights into Nenshi’s career, from his education to his tenure as Calgary’s mayor, and his adeptness in handling major crises. Kelly Cryderman: "He communicated so well during the floods in 2013."

3: Future Challenges

The challenges Nenshi faces in transitioning from municipal to provincial politics are explored, including potential conflicts within the NDP. Kelly Cryderman: "He's never had to be the head of a caucus."

4: Policy and Opposition

The potential policy clashes with the UCP and strategies for the NDP under Nenshi’s leadership are discussed. Kelly Cryderman: "That will become an issue. He needs to be able to challenge the government there."

• Engage more actively in local politics to understand and influence future policies.
• Consider the impact of leadership styles in political outcomes.
• Evaluate the effectiveness of political communication during crises.
• Monitor the interplay between provincial and federal political affiliations.
• Analyze electoral strategies and their long-term implications on political parties.

Over the weekend, the Alberta NDP elected former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi to lead the party into the 2027 provincial election. With membership numbers at an all-time high, the future looks bright for the provincial party. But Nenshi will face many challenges before meeting Danielle Smith in the next election – including trying to unite the party while considering whether to sever ties with the federal NDP.

Kelly Cryderman is a columnist and reporter with The Globe. She joins the show to break down what’s ahead for the provincial party and what conflicts lie ahead with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

People

Nahed Nenshi, Danielle Smith, Kathleen Ganley, Sarah Hoffman, Jody Callahu Stonehouse, Rachel Notley, Shannon Phillips

Companies

None

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

Kelly Cryderman

Content Warnings:

None

Cheryl Sutherland
It's better over here.

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And for Nahed, 62,000.

Cheryl Sutherland
On Saturday, former Calgary mayor Nahed Nenshi became the new leader of the Alberta NDP.

The Globe's Kelly Kreiterman was at the.

Kelly Cryderman
Announcement in downtown Calgary.

Kelly Kreiterman
It was packed. I'd say there's 500 people there. There was a sense even before the announcement that everybody knew what was going to happen as soon as we got the results. Oh my goodness. It was clear that he had won by a country mile.

Cheryl Sutherland
The NDP has been riding a huge wave of growth in the province, in part because of Nancy.

Kelly Kreiterman
Where the Alberta NDP is from where it was just ten years ago is a much, much different place. Even being in a ballroom in Calgary, I was thinking about how establishment that was.

Cheryl Sutherland
But victory is the easy part and Nancy has his work cut out for him. Hell have to try and unite the party under a common identity and decide whether or not to sever ties with the federal NDP.

And then, of course, theres Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Nenshi and the United Conservative Party leader will likely clash over politics and their visions for the province.

So today, Kelly explains whats ahead for Albertas new NDP leader.

I'm Cheryl Sutherland and this is the decibel from the Globe and Mail.

Kelly Cryderman
Hi, Kelly. Thanks for being here today.

Kelly Kreiterman
Great to be here, Cheryl.

Cheryl Sutherland
So, Kelly, on Saturday, Nahet Nenshi became the new Alberta NDP leader.

Kelly Cryderman
Can you just explain what were the results like? Did he win by a lot?

Kelly Kreiterman
He won by a lot.

He won a resounding victory. You know, and it's not only the percentage basis, it's the actual absolute numbers. So he received almost 63,000 votes and that's 86% support.

Speaker F
Oh, wow.

Kelly Cryderman
That's a big one.

Kelly Kreiterman
Yeah, it is. It is huge. And I don't know this, so please send me your cards or letters if I'm wrong, but he says he believes that's the most any provincial leader has ever received in absolute votes in any provincial leadership race. He might be right. You know, we're talking about a lot smaller numbers say Daniel Smith won leadership at the United Conservative Party in 2022 with just over 42,000 votes. For instance. The other candidates in the other NDP leadership races, we're talking about two, three, 4000 votes being the bar, right? So this is a huge number. And the NDP made a big point on Saturday over the weekend when these results were announced that a lot of the people voting for Nahed Nenshi had prior ties to the Alberta NDP party. And that might be true partially, but I think it is also undeniable that he has brought in new people to the party as well. His running in the leadership race prompted people to buy a membership and vote.

Kelly Cryderman
We'll get into the membership numbers a little bit later, but I want to kind of stick on what happened on Saturday. Were the results a surprise or were they expected that Nahi Nenshi would kind of run away with this?

Kelly Kreiterman
So in the days before the announcement on the leadership race, I was getting a very high degree of confidence from his organization and that suggested to me that they were pretty sure that they had it. There was some question of him winning on the first ballot because it was a ranked ballot, but there wasn't much question that he was going to win. There was two other very strong candidates who mounted very strong campaigns. Kathleen Ganley and Sarah Hoffman, our former cabinet ministers, our stalwarts of the party, and Jody Callahu Stonehouse, who was a new MLA who spoke very strongly on water issues in Alberta and indigenous issues.

I have no doubt that they will play a major role.

And our colleague Alana Smith interviewed Nahed Nancy on Sunday and he talked about giving each of them a pen, symbolizing what he says is his intent to collaboratively write the next chapter of the party's history.

Kelly Cryderman
Kelly, could you remind us who is Naiad Nenshi and why is he so popular?

Kelly Kreiterman
So Nahed Nenshi is the son of immigrants. His family moved to Canada from Tanzania. He was born in Toronto, but his family moved to Alberta when he was still a toddler.

He had kind of an amazing education. He went to the University of Calgary where his university mate was Daniel Smith and a bunch of other politicos.

Then he went to Harvard. Then he worked for McKinsey and company. But at some point, just before he turned 30, he decided to come back to Calgary and he worked for non profits. He taught at Mount Royal and then got involved in municipal politics. He served as Calgary's mayor from 2010 to 2021, three terms.

He was hugely popular when he was voted in in 2010. You think about that time it was a much different time in politics. Barack Obama was the us president. There was kind of this rise of progressive politics. And Nathan Nancy was a leading force in Canada on that. Not unlike Premier Daniel Smith. He's a great communicator. You can see him thinking and answering the question. He's great on his feet and there is substance to what he says.

Kelly Cryderman
And as you mentioned, he was Calgary's mayor and I would say a very popular mayor in Calgary.

Cheryl Sutherland
What were his policies like when he.

Kelly Cryderman
Was the mayor of Calgary?

Kelly Kreiterman
You know, if you're going to point to one thing in a way it's difficult. It was kind of like the trains ran on time, like municipal services were delivered. Well, he was famous for handling the floods in 2013. He communicated so well during that time. There was concern about the water supply then and what would happen to hundreds of homes that were destroyed and 80,000 people displaced. And he was famous for his handling of that. He was famous for having a decent relationship with his council colleagues. But he also stuck his foot in his mouth a few times. You know, he is saucy to a certain degree and will give a glib comment.

Even during this Alberta NDP race. He called the UCP the monkeys on the other side, which ruffled some feathers. As you know, it's a concern when we use this kind of language. But he doubled down and said, actually I should have been stronger. And he was describing their behavior in the legislature.

Kelly Cryderman
Nancy already has political experience at the municipal level as we're talking about now, but not so much at the provincial level. So what kind of challenges does that create for him?

Kelly Kreiterman
I think it's a big challenge. I think, you know, he knows the world of municipal politics very well. But municipal politics in Alberta has never been party driven. He's never had to be the head of a caucus. He's never had to make decisions on policy regarding healthcare and education and fights with Ottawa over energy and climate policy. He will have to make those tough decisions.

Kelly Cryderman
And we've talked about how it's not a surprise that he did win this race, but it wasn't necessarily an easy race either. So what were some of the criticisms that he faced heading into voting?

Kelly Kreiterman
It wasn't an easy race, but I wouldn't put it up as a particularly difficult race in a list of leadership races. It was mostly NDP ers being nice to one another and agreeing with one another. Now Sarah Hoffman, who is a former health minister, she was very tough on na head nunchi over issues in his time as mayor where he did not give the support to unions or to minimum wage that she would like to see, or to affordable housing. She did take him to task on some of those issues, of course.

Kelly Cryderman
Rachel Notley was the leader of the Alberta NDP for ten years and that must also cast a pretty long shadow for Nenshi. So how will Nenshi navigate building his own political brand?

Kelly Kreiterman
Outside of her legacy, Rachel Notley remains hugely popular in Alberta. When she won in 2015, the Conservatives were split in Alberta and that helped her win that election. But she also is a great communicator. She also was very good at connecting with Albertans. I've often said that Daniel Smith and Rachel Notley are both political leaders who I see where random strangers come up to them with their problems and they'll both listen. They're there to listen. They have that retail politics gift. And I think Rachel Notley got a lot of praise this past weekend and deservedly so. She took a party that, you know, was permanently in opposition and made it a party that was considered a viable alternative for government in a lot of ways. And I think he has to build on that. He has to build on the idea that the NDP is not just an opposition party. It's not just a one term government.

I think another very interesting question is where Nahed Nancy decides to run. He is not in the legislature right now. A very prominent Alberta NDP member announced her resignation as of July. Shannon Phillips. She had been a cabinet minister. She had been a pivotal part of the party. She's leaving politics. Her riding is in Lethbridge. There was some talk of Naed Nenshi running in Lethridge.

To me it doesn't make any sense. Everybody knows he's Calgary. He also has an elderly mother who lives with him who he takes care of. So that is part of his world as well. He also doesn't seem to be in a rush to get in the legislature. He talked about the gift of the next three years, being able to sit in cafes or in homes and talk to Albertans and talk to them about issues. That doesn't sound to me like a guy who's in a rush to get in the legislature. I think he will wait for an opportune time for a seat somewhere around Calgary.

Kelly Cryderman
Does it present a problem for him that he doesn't have a seat or riding yet?

Kelly Kreiterman
It does and it doesn't. Of course he will be the opposition leader. He needs to be able to function in the legislature. He needs to be able to challenge the government there. He needs to become very skilled in legislation and the like. But at this point, he doesn't have to be there, right? There are advantages to a political leader not being in the House in that they don't have to spend time there. They can spend more time stomping, for lack of a better word. They can be out with people. They can be organizing. There will come a point where it will be an issue. There will be important legislation that the UCP is putting forward and the leader of the NDP will not be in the house to speak to it. That will become an issue. And that's why it's more likely than not, between now and the next election, he will seek a seat.

Kelly Cryderman
We'll be right back.

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Kelly Cryderman
Let'S talk more broadly about this election, because there was a lot of optimism around this race, and that's partly because the NDP saw a massive boost in membership numbers leading up to the election.

Do we know why?

Cheryl Sutherland
And then can you talk about how.

Kelly Cryderman
Big of a boost this was?

Kelly Kreiterman
So, at the end of last year, at the end of 2023, I believe the NDP had something like 16,000 members, the Alberta NDP. And for this leadership vote, they had more than 85,000 members. Most provincial political parties would dream about this kind of engagement.

There are obviously Albertans who are very unhappy with the UCP and who decided to join the NDP because of that. But there was excitement about Nehedna cheesy entering the race. He is a political star and he upped the game for the Albert NDP.

Kelly Cryderman
And so how did the growth actually help Nanji in winning?

Kelly Kreiterman
Well, all those people actually showed up and voted, which is also unusual. He got around 86% of the vote. There was also around 86% turnout, which is also very high turnout. The fact that the turnout is as high as it is speaks to a high level of engagement, too.

And the question is, are they able to leverage that, and are they able to leverage that for three and a half years because we're now not expecting an election in Alberta until the fall of 2027.

Kelly Cryderman
One of the underlying themes of this leadership election is the NDP's identity moving forward and how it will look with a new leader. Kelly, for people who aren't familiar, can you describe what traditionally makes an Alberta New Democrat a New Democrat?

Kelly Kreiterman
There's things like minimum wage and workers rights and I would say a focus on the environment, a focus on minority communities that I think exists across the board where I think Alberta NDP members differ. And you could see this, especially once Rachel Notley took office, is when it comes to climate and energy policy.

And that has to do exactly with what Alberta's whole economy is focused on. And the NDP parties in Canada are different from the liberal and conservative parties in that when you join a provincial party, you automatically become a member of the federal party.

Kelly Cryderman
Okay, so Nenshi has talked about the possibility of severing ties with the federal NDP. Why would it be in the provincial party's interest to cut the connection with the federal NDP?

Kelly Kreiterman
Because in most parts of Alberta, the federal NDP isn't popular.

Any provincial candidate can tell you about their signs or the comments being we don't want anything to do with a Trudeau Singh alliance in Alberta. The Alberta NDP is viewed by many people as a different entity. But if there's any confusion, people like Nahed Nenshi, they don't want that. People will vote for the NDP provincially, who wouldn't dream of doing it federally? I think that's their concern, that they are a different entity. And Nahed Nenshi has asked, what do we get from that link and what do we get from being attached to a political organization where we have a lot of policy disagreements on major things?

Kelly Cryderman
Well, let's ask that question, because why would members choose to keep the connection? Is there something there?

Kelly Kreiterman
It's a question of history and tradition.

That is the problem he will have in dealing with the 38 member caucus, where there are a lot of people who feel that kinship with the federal party despite the policy differences. But there's also this new vein that he leads. Absolutely. That is about being centrist, is about being a viable alternative in Alberta, is about winning elections and pragmatism. And I think there will be conflicts going forward.

Kelly Cryderman
And you mentioned that this matchup between Premier Danielle Smith and Nahed Nenshi will be a very interesting one. Actually a quite exciting one. So can you kind of get into that? What can we expect to see with this matchup?

Kelly Kreiterman
It will be one for the ages. They went to the University of Calgary together. They hung around in the same nerdy political circle. They were friends.

Somewhere out there. There's a picture of them together.

And now they both know each other's strengths and weaknesses so well. That will make for incredible debates. They're both incredible debaters and communicators. There will be a fight on policy, too, and that will go to those provincial issues that every province has, like health and education.

There will be big differences there. Notchy is particularly critical of the UCP on education, and that is going to come to light in a big way. But health is going to be huge. The policy on transgender youth and trans athletes, that's going to be a big policy difference. Renewables, that's going to be a big difference. I also think not. She is going to start to go after Daniel Smith on patronage appointments. That's going to be a big issue. It is going to be such a big matchup because they're both highly skilled, highly capable politicians who are polarizing and have a huge fan base. And it's just going to be fascinating.

Kelly Cryderman
We talked a bit about the growth in membership of the NDP. It was huge. And I just wonder, does that give the NDP a bit of traction heading into 2027? And on the flip side, does that kind of make the UCP a bit nervous?

Kelly Kreiterman
That is a really good question, because the debate about whether or not haid Nenshi will be great for the UCP or bad for the UCP, the jury's still out. What I heard at the beginning is they were happy to take him on, they're happy to have that debate. But as they saw the numbers and the members of support that he picked up, they grew increasingly concerned.

And I think Saturday's vote and the number of votes that he got, the number of people he was actually able to prompt to vote, that is a concern for a lot of UCP organizers. And they will throw everything they have at him, as will the NDP at the UCP. I think the NDP, which tends to come out swinging against every single thing the UCP does, I think they will have to get better at picking their battles and choosing when to really fight the UCP and when to when to take a quieter route.

Cheryl Sutherland
Just lastly, Kelly, when will we know.

Kelly Cryderman
When Nancy has made his mark? Like, what are you looking out for?

Kelly Kreiterman
Of course I'm looking to 2027 and that election, that's the ultimate test. And everything that comes between now and then is really a bit of noise. It will only be that day and whether he is able to do something historic on that voting day and put the NDP in government again and disprove the Conservatives. That just said the Alberta NDP winning government in 2015 was a fluke.

Kelly Cryderman
Kelly, it's been great talking to you about this.

Cheryl Sutherland
Thanks again for coming on the show.

Kelly Kreiterman
Thanks so much. Cheryl.

Cheryl Sutherland
That'S it for today. I'm Cheryl Sutherland, our intern. Kelsey Arnott produced this episode. Our producers are Madeline White and Rachel Levy McLaughlin.

David Crosby edits a show, Adrian Chung is our senior producer and Matt Fraynor is our managing editor. Thanks so much for listening.

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