How Biden's exit fits into American political history

This episode analyzes President Joe Biden's decision not to seek reelection and its implications for American politics.

1. Biden's withdrawal is unprecedented in its timing and has reshaped the political landscape.
2. Kamala Harris faces the challenge of quickly assembling a campaign and solidifying support within a short timeframe.
3. The episode marks a significant moment in American democracy, highlighting a shift toward diversity and potential generational change in leadership.
4. The discussion also touches on the broader implications of this decision for party unity and electoral strategy.
5. Biden's endorsement of Harris aims to strengthen the Democratic commitment to diversity and progressive values.

1: Introduction

Host Manica Ramon Willms sets the stage for the episode's focus on Biden's historical decision. Manica Ramon Willms: "At 146 Eastern. On Sunday, the U.S. election dramatically changed."

2: The Announcement

Exploration of the immediate reactions to Biden's announcement and its direct implications. David Tribman: "It's a moment of great import, of historic significance."

3: Historical Context

Comparison of Biden's decision to historical political events and its uniqueness. David Tribman: "The closest example is 1856... This is even later."

4: Looking Forward

Discussion on the challenges and strategies for Kamala Harris moving forward as the Democratic frontrunner. David Tribman: "She has to create a new campaign, choose a vice presidential nominee, and prepare for the upcoming debate with Donald Trump."

1. Engage in informed discussions about political transitions to understand their broader implications.
2. Monitor upcoming political events to stay informed about changes in leadership and policy directions.
3. Support diversity in political representation by advocating for and voting for candidates who represent diverse backgrounds.
4. Encourage open discussions about the qualifications and visions of political candidates.
5. Analyze political news critically, considering both historical context and potential future impacts.

After weeks of pressure, speculation and open questions from political leaders about his age and health, U.S. President Joe Biden has dropped his re-election campaign ahead of the 2024 election. Biden’s decision now clears the way for a younger candidate to pursue the Democratic Party’s nomination, to run against Donald Trump.

Globe contributor and Pulitzer Prize-winning writer David Shribman joins the podcast to explain this historic moment in American politics, and the crucial days ahead for the Democrats, as they seek to rally behind a new presidential candidate.

People

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, David Tribman

Guest Name(s):

David Tribman

Content Warnings:

None

Vas Bednar
Welcome to lately a new Globe and Mail podcast. I'm Vas Bednar, and every Friday I'm going to be having a conversation about big defining trends in business and technology that are reshaping our everyday find lately. Wherever you get your podcasts.

Manica Ramon Willms
At 146 Eastern. On Sunday, the us election dramatically changed.

President Joe Biden published a letter on social media that contained this while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.

Soon after that announcement, Biden tweeted out an endorsement for his vice president, Kamala Harris, to be the partys presidential pick.

Donald Trump reacted swiftly on social media, criticizing Biden and his record.

While this is all happening, we wanted to take a step back and examine this historic moment for american democracy.

So today, Globe contributor David Tribman is our guest. Hes won a Pulitzer prize for his coverage of us politics and hell discuss where this moment fits into american history, why Biden is leaving the race, and what the democratic partys next steps are ahead of their national convention in August.

I'm Manica Ramon Willms and this is the decibel from the Globe and Mail.

David, thank you so much for being here today.

David Tribman
Oh, I'm delighted to do this.

Manica Ramon Willms
So you're joining me on Sunday evening? Pretty much. We're recording this just a few hours after the announcement from Joe Biden.

David Tribman
Yes. That's great.

Manica Ramon Willms
David, what was the first thing you thought about when you heard the news that Biden Washington withdrawing from the us presidential race?

David Tribman
Well, to be honest, the first thing I thought about was I had just written a piece about what his options were going to be. And I had to throw that piece out. 1100 words gone to waste.

It's a moment of great import, of historic significance. And that this was a moment really a moment that required a lot of thought. We haven't had anything like this happen in our history with great consequences, consequences that go beyond the apparent endorsement or the real endorsement of Kamala Harris and the fact that we'll have now a Harris Trump race. But it also changes the character of our politics right now. It brings to the fore black woman as the leader of the Democratic Party. It changes the trajectory of the campaign. I'm going to go on and on here. It also changes the nature of this year. You know, this is a year in which the velocity of news has been almost overwhelming.

June 27, we had the debate in which Biden's apparent lack of mental acuity was on display for the whole country.

Donald Trump
And the whole world, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with, with the COVID excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with, look, if we finally.

David Tribman
Beat Medicare, followed by the reaction to that, followed by the shooting of Donald Trump, followed by his appearance with a little white bandage on his ear and his triumphal acceptance of the republican presidential nomination. So tonight, with faith and devotion, I proudly accept your nomination for president of the United States and his re emergence as a kind of a symbol of courage, resilience, and, to the eyes of his own supporters, almost divine favor, followed by more lobbying of the 46th president Biden to leave the race and finally his, well, two more things. His actual withdrawal and then his selection of Miss Harris.

Manica Ramon Willms
Mm hmm. And you, David, you mentioned the debate. So let me ask you about that, because after the debate between Biden and Trump, which was on June 27, you wrote a column where you said it was too late to bail on Biden, that there just wasn't enough time to install a new democratic candidate. So I guess in light of that, what do you make of this situation?

David Tribman
Well, first of all, one of the things I make of it is that a political colonist like me should never make comments like that, because now I look like a mere idiot. Second of all, it may be too late, but it might be just in time. So we'll have to see. It's awfully late. There has never been a change like this in a nomination involving an incumbent president before.

The closest example is 1856. Even I wasn't around for that one when President Franklin Pierce of New Hampshire was denied on the 15th ballot of the Democratic National Convention renomination.

This is even later.

And so in the four weeks between now and the democratic convention, Kim will have to consolidate her support, which I think won't be very difficult. She has to create a new campaign shell probably graft hers onto the Biden campaign apparatus. That wont be that hard. She has to choose a vice president nominee. That wont be that easy. Although as a vice president herself, she knows what that job is like. Has to prepare for her convention, which opens, I think, on the 19 August, has to prepare for, about a month later, a debate with Donald Trump, and then, of course, the nine or ten week sprint to the election after Labor Day. So there's a lot for her to do. There's a lot that needs to be done. And that's why people like me thought it was too late back then to change.

Manica Ramon Willms
And I want to ask you a little bit more about Harris as we go along, because we're just over 100 days away from the election. There's not a ton of time here to kind of regroup. But let's just stick with the moment for a second here. David, I guess. What do you think were some of the factors that really led to Biden's decision, that led to this moment on Sunday, of Biden stepping down, following things.

David Tribman
Led to his decision? First of all, the apparent recognition that his own faculties had been compromised.

Joe Biden entered presidential politics in 1987 as the young guy, the symbol of youth, kind of a Kennedy esque figure for the 1980s, who was the youthful figure of idealism, passion, and vision.

And he no longer was that. He still had idealism, to be sure, but he no longer was young, and he no longer had the ease of speech and of thought that he had in 1987.

Then there was all the pressure that was brought to bear on him from leading Democrats, including an, especially Nancy Pelosi, who was the speaker of the House and herself is 84 years old, who bore down upon him and said, we're about to lose this election if you don't get out. We're about to lose the Senate, which we now control, she says, and we're about to lose any chance of taking back the House.

So the combination of those things and the total rat tat tat happened every day, day after day, of different people saying he must get out of it was in part disrespectful of the president and in part extremely effective. And it turned out that the effectiveness was far more important than the disrespect.

My guess is I know Biden pretty well.

I feel it's a sense of relief.

He had a mission. He fulfilled it. That mission was defeating Trump. And in 2020, prevailing after the big insurrection on the capital and being a very, very good president from the point of view of his own party, he can declare victory and go on. He can be a figure who sacrificed selflessness. He set a new generation of politicians on their road, and he affirmed the party's dedication to diversity by endorsing a black woman. That's not a bad day for him.

Manica Ramon Willms
David, you touched on this a little bit, as you're just speaking there, because this decision comes after months of infighting between Democrats. Right. People within the party kind of fighting amongst themselves. I guess. I wonder, is it rare to see so much public party disunity like this?

David Tribman
Well, many, many years ago, about a century ago, Will Rogers, who was an american comedian, said, I'm not a member of any organized party. I'm a Democrat.

And I think that that was brought to bear here a little bit.

But you're right, this is an unusual situation of people assailing their own president.

I mean, we've seen presidents be challenged in their own party for renomination. The last one, of course, was Jimmy Carter in 1980 when Senator Ted Kennedy ran against him, but Carter prevailed. We also saw it in 1976 when Governor Reagan of California tried to deny the nomination of Gerald Ford in the bicentennial year. But it is fairly rare. It's particularly poignant because of how beloved Joe Biden is in the Democratic Party. He's been chairman of the Judiciary Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, two of the three most important committees in the Senate. Hes run for president now four times.

He was vice president for eight years. He led President Obama to endorse the notion of gay marriage. He was way ahead about Obama on that. So hes a beloved figure, and it broke many of these peoples hearts to have to break Joe Bidens heart.

Manica Ramon Willms
I'm glad you brought up history, because I think we should look at a little bit more of the historical context here. Is there any other election in the US that compares to the upheaval that we've seen in this year's campaign so far? Anything that comes to mind? David?

David Tribman
Yes, three of them come to mind. 1968, when Lyndon Johnson did what Biden did, which is to withdraw, he withdrew on March 31.

A week or so later, Martin Luther King was killed.

Six or seven weeks after that, Bobby Kennedy was killed.

Then the Democrats had a tumultuous convention where there was rioting in the streets of Chicago. They nominated Hubert Humphrey, who lost, nearly won, but lost Nixon.

The other two would be 1912, when William Howard Taft was running for reelection against Governor Woodrow Wilson of New Jersey, who had been president of Princeton University, and against Teddy Roosevelt, who had been president before Taft and who had set up Taft as his protege. A lot had come out then, and there was a fourth candidate, Eugene V. Debs, who was a socialist who got a million votes. That was a lot of come out. But I think the ne plus ultra of all this was the 1860 election, when there were four candidates.

You will not have heard of any of the other three, but you surely will have heard of Abraham Lincoln. And it was Lincoln's election in November of 1860 that prompted the secession of South Carolina and ten other states, and that brought us to a civil war.

Manica Ramon Willms
But to be clear, David, nothing exactly like this has happened before. Right, where a sitting president drops his nomination bid so late in the game.

David Tribman
No, no, nothing this late in the game like this. No, but this is also an era, I must say, of where all of the velocity of news and developments is accelerated. And so we're used to constant change.

And maybe she can pull this off. Don't know for sure, but maybe.

Manica Ramon Willms
We'll be right back.

Vas Bednar
Welcome to lately, a new Globe and Mail podcast that's all about navigating life in the new economy. I'm your host, bas bednar.

Every Friday I'm going to be having a conversation, maybe even a raucous one, about big defining trends in business and technology that are reshaping our everyday. It's about the innovations that are changing our world, whether you've noticed them yet or nothing. Join us for the latest on lately, wherever you get your podcasts.

Manica Ramon Willms
Okay, David, let's, let's look ahead. Now. The Democratic National Convention starts on August 19, next month. So what happens now?

David Tribman
Well, first she has to choose a vice presidential running mate.

Manica Ramon Willms
And you're talking about Kamala Harris here, who Biden has endorsed now as well.

David Tribman
Right. There are six or seven governors who could be that couple of senators who could do that. So there are many factors here, but the fact that there is a small, discrete number of battleground states does put a focus on whether her choice can help them, the Democrats in Michigan, in Arizona, in Pennsylvania. And so that's a factor. Then there's a question of balance. Presidential candidates like to balance out their ticket. Usually they'll have a small state and a large state or a southerner and a northerner or a Protestant and a Catholic, you know, or a male and a female. Now, it's entirely possible that she'll choose another female and they'll run all women team. That would be something that would catch America's attention and perhaps win. The factor they all throw in this is I want somebody who can be president if that should happen. Now, they always say that, but what they really want is someone who can help win the election.

Manica Ramon Willms
So this is interesting because, yes, Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, but she's not officially the nominee yet. David, it sounds like you don't think anyone else will run against her.

David Tribman
Well, I talked to a senator today who said that he had canvassed all the people who were likely to run against her, and they all said they wouldn't do that. First of all, why run against her in a year in which there's a good chance the Democrats will lose, number one. Number two, if she runs and is defeated, 2028 is open to all of them. 2024 is the only year, really the only year for Kamala Harris. And so I think that's part of the calculation.

Manica Ramon Willms
Okay, so a vp pick sounds like it's the next step for Harris here. But what about the party more broadly, David, what are the big hurdles ahead for the Democrats?

David Tribman
Well, the big pearls ahead of the Democrats is theyre running against a guy who has been proclaimed an instrument of God by his own party, who likely believes that, who had a bravura convention and whose party is totally united behind him, who is a raucous campaigner and who will try to verbally devastate Kamala Harris.

Manica Ramon Willms
Hmm. What impact do you think this is all going to have on, I guess, Trump's campaign? So Biden stepping down, Harris now being the potential nominee. How are the Republicans going to react to this?

David Tribman
Well, they plan on running against an 81 year old with compromised mental acuity. That's gone now. So they're going to run against the perceived unpopularity of Vice President Harris about her lack of experience at the highest levels of american government. They are going to pillory her as a liberal out of sync with the american values. They're going to say she hates America. They'll say she wants abortion up to the last day of the 9th month of pregnancy. And this will be a vicious campaign. And I would say, and any Americans listening to this, hide your children. It won't be something illuminating to watch.

Manica Ramon Willms
Do we know, is there polling that shows us, Harris, Trump, that kind of matchup, how voting would go? Do we know how popular she would be standing up against next to Trump?

David Tribman
There is some suggestion that though she runs behind Trump, she is a slightly better choice than Biden to run against. But the thing they remember is everything we thought until around noon today is gone. It's over.

We're starting a tabula rasa here, a brand new world. And so we don't know how good a campaign should be campaigner. We don't know if lacerating comments from Trump will hurt Kamala Harris or will they make people think that he's out of control. And so there's all these unknowns, and the unknowns accumulate as we look ahead.

Manica Ramon Willms
So what do you think? I guess the Democrats are thinking about here, like how you've kind of laid out the arguments the Republicans might make against Harris. How should Democrats, I guess, go about rebutting those and selling Harris as their presidential pick well, first of all, they.

David Tribman
Don'T have much of a choice, so they're going to have to put as much a rosy evaluation on her as possible. They're going to say that she was an excellent prosecutor in California. Theyll say that she has enormous experience, four years in the vice presidency, a couple of years in the Senate, and she was attorney general of California, which is not an insignificant thing. Theyll say she represents America much more than the nearly all white, rural oriented constituency of Donald Trump. They will say that she will be able to bring, and this is a harder sell, working blue collar Democrats back into the democratic circle. So she has a lot of assets.

I don't mean to say that they're unabashedly enthusiastic about Kamala Harris being their nominee, but she's the gal they brought to the party, and they're going to dance with her.

Manica Ramon Willms
David, just to end here, when we look at this decision of Biden to step down, what does this mean for America, broadly? Like, is this a good thing for american democracy? How do you see this?

David Tribman
Well, a good thing for american democracy. It's a good thing for those who believe in the notion that is part of our heritage, which is e plurum unum out of many, one, which is to say a celebration of diversity. It is a good thing for Americans who believe that women deserve a better chance to show their ability in politics and other spheres. And so it's a great moment for what many people believe is the american creed of opportunity and chance and possibility.

So that's a pretty good moment.

Manica Ramon Willms
David, thank you so much for taking the time today to speak with me.

David Tribman
Oh, I'm delighted to do so. And I was very. It's an honor to be asked.

Manica Ramon Willms
That's it for today. I'm Manica Ramon Wells. Our producers are Madeline White, Rachel Levy McLaughlin, and Michal Stein. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Matt Fraynor is our managing editor.

Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you soon.