8/1/24: Trump goes racist & sexist, polling collapses, campaign in freefall

David Pakman
Welcome to the show. In a shocking new poll, Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally by four points, as Donald Trump is collapsing and panicking daily and JD Vance is losing one point of favorability every single day. What an incredible turn of events in american politics. Let's discuss it in a new Civics daily cos poll. Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump nationally, 49 to 45.

This is the best result for Kamala Harris so far. We will talk about how this fits into the average of polls, but what a number. Notable that among those 18 to 34, Kamala Harris is leading by more than 20 points. Among 35 to 49, she's leading by nearly ten points. But among those 50 and older, that is the group with which Donald Trump continues to lead.

A large majority of democratic voters, 64% in this same poll, said they are glad that Biden decided to exit the 2024 presidential race. Only 11% of Democrats say they wish Biden were still running. These are incredible numbers. Now, the way that this has affected an average, you know, if we think about, we might think about the average of polls as a line and individual polling, just as dots on that line, points on that line. If we take this Kamala plus four poll and average it into the national polling, what we see is that Trump's national lead has been reduced by 30% overnight as a result of a series of recent polls. So let's discuss that. You may recall that not long ago, Donald Trump was leading by 2%, 2.7%, roughly as Joe Biden exited the race. And in came Kamala Harris. And most recently, it was Trump plus two. Based on this new polling from civics, as well as a number of other polls we will look at in a moment, Donald Trump's national lead is now 1.4. When you go from two to 1.4, you're reducing the lead by 0.6. That's 30%. That's a 30% 30% reduction. Now, of course, these are small numbers and we have to understand the limitations of changes in such small numbers. The Civics poll is not the only good poll for Kamala Harris, where previously Trump was winning every poll, although some by only one. The last four polls are Kamala plus four, Trump plus four, Kamala plus plus one. That's Reuters Ipsos and Kamala plus one in the morning consult poll. So forget about the details.

Zoom out. The two important takeaways are anecdotally, there is a growing number of polls that have Kamala Harris in the lead. And as an average of polling, Trump's lead is now barely a single point. Now, later on in the show, we are going to do sort of a deeper dive into the paths to victory, because I know many of you are probably hearing me talk about national numbers, and you're. With tears in your eyes, you're saying, David, sir, I respect you so much, and I know that you're putting in the effort and doing the best you can. Most of you are thinking this, I'm sure this is how. What I think when I listen to podcasts, the host is doing such a good job. But this is. We have an electoral college in the United States. Whether Kamala Harris wins or loses the popular vote by a few points, it's almost certainly going to come down to fewer than half a million votes in three to five critical swing states, and you would be completely correct. So later in the show, we are going to get into the electoral paths to victory approval polling and a whole bunch of other things, but by itself, stunning that we now are getting individual data points on the general polling line where Kamala Harris is winning by four.

If this race continues to shift over the next two weeks the way it has over the last two weeks, you could be talking about significant, statistically significant leads for Kamala Harris nationally. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's talk about the other side of the coin, which is as Kamala Harris's stock continues to rise, JD Vance's shares are increasingly worthless.

JD Vance is being considered the worst vice presidential pick dating back to 1972. That's like hundreds of years ago. It feels like there is new approval polling for JD Vance that shows him losing a point of favorability every day over the last ten days. The. These are insanely bad numbers. And this is why, when Trump was asked by Laura Ingraham, can you guarantee us that JD Vance was really a great pick? Trump had nothing to say other than he really likes family.

When he was asked yesterday at the National association of Black Journalists, is JD Vance ready to be president on day one as vp? Trump didn't say, yes, he is. He said something like, he's a good guy, or, I've always respected him, or something like that. It appears as though even Trump is struggling to justify this election. So take a look at this. The important, uh, data here relates to the ABC News Ipsos poll. Uh, JD Vance, about ten days ago, was a minus six in favorability. What favorability minus six means is that your unfavorability exceeds your favorability by six points. Okay. About ten days ago, JD Vance was at a minus six. He is now at a -15 so let's do the mathematic. In nine. I'm sorry, in ten days, he's lost nine points, meaning with every day that goes by, with every day that JD Vance is out on the campaign trail, with every day that JD Vance is talking about childless cat ladies, or videos and audio of JD Vance saying horrible things are unearthed, or Trump himself is unable to justify or even barely say anything positive about JD Vance, every single day that goes bye, he is losing one point of favorability, an additional 1% of America, which is roughly 3.3 million people. Obviously, that includes kids. But as a general rule of thumb, 1% of America every day goes, I actually don't like this guy. I have an unfavorable view of him. I have a negative view of him. That's an absolute and total disaster.

CNN's Harry Entinhe is calling Vance the worst pick since 1972, pointing to the child, this childless cat lady comments, and saying, it's the worst vice presidential pick of my lifetime. Of my lifetime, which is really, really wild stuff. So where does this put us with regard to Trump's consideration of replacing JD Vance? I actually have no idea. There are rumors on both sides. Yesterday, Tim Miller told us that it would be relatively difficult, actually, at this point to do it. From a political standpoint, there's no rule. I mean, you could do it. I got a bunch of emails from folks in the audience who said, oh, you know what? They're going to pull, David. They are going to do the. There is a health issue. JD Vance is having a health issue. I struggle to believe that. I struggle to believe that it would be credible. I don't think that that's going to be the situation. Uh, if there were to be a change to the VP running alongside Trump, uh, I think it would be couched simply as Trump being Trump, making the difficult decisions, framing himself as the tough guy who's willing to go and say, you're fired, and, uh, just move on as quickly as they can, sort of the way the Democratic Party has from Joe Biden's candidacy. But I don't expect some kind of convoluted illness situation. And there is also the growing aspect to this, where I am no longer the only one. I was never the only one, but I am. I am now seeing many others point to the very palpable and apparent discomfort and disengagement from Usha Vance, JD Vance's wife.

And this is, of course, all speculative, circumstantial, and anecdotal, but we are seeing a lot of these data points she previously expressed being appalled by Trump in private communications. It's very hard to imagine even the most craven and naked thirst for power, which being VP certainly gives you. It's hard to imagine that really changing her perspective on Trump. So put aside for a second that JD Vance almost certainly still thinks of Trump as a doofus, as he used to. Usha Vance really seems to dislike the guy. At a recent campaign stop, a staged campaign event at a diner in Minnesota, she looked genuinely miserable in recent images from her on the campaign plane, seeming completely disengaged. Just reading a book as conversations are going on around her now, you could say, you know, pictures rather than video don't represent the full story. Anything could have been going on. Absolutely. It is a speculative sort of narrative that we are trying to build up from individual bullet points. But if I had to guess who, Vance is not happy with what's going on. She's not enjoying this. She doesn't like the idea of her husband being so closely associated with a guy that she finds appalling. So all of this points to trouble in paradise.

Whether it leads to the replacement of JD Vance, I have absolutely no idea. I want to hear from you. Does Trump replace JD Vance? Info at david pakman.com we'll take a very quick break and be right back.

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That's right. That's not the code. The code is save democracy 24, without any spaces and without any extraneous characters, condiments or anything else. Save Democracy 24 at join pacman.com Donald Trump got absolutely crushed yesterday during an interview at the National association of Black Journalists event. Now a lot of people are saying, David, why is the race card being played? Why are people talking about black interviewer Rachel Scott and Black interviewer Harris Faulkner? It sounds like you liberals are playing the race card. Well, it matters because this was an event at the National association of Black Journalists. The entire context here is one where, despite claims from Trump that black americans are flocking to him, in a recent Michigan poll, Trump got 0% of the black vote. It is highly politically relevant that this is an audience made up of black journalists. And the first question was absolutely wild. Trump hated it, and it only went downhill from here.

Rachel Scott
Thank you.

David Pakman
How are you?

Rachel Scott
How are you, mister President, we so appreciate you giving us an hour of your time.

I want to start by addressing the elephant in the room. Sir, a lot of people did not think it was appropriate for you to be here today.

You have pushed false claims about some of your rivals.

David Pakman
This is like, brutal. Right up off the bat, from Nikki.

Rachel Scott
Haley to former president Barack Obama saying that they were not born in the United States, which is not true. You have told four congresswoman women of color who were american citizens to go back to where they came from.

You have used words like animal and rabbit to describe black district attorneys. You've had dinner with a white supremacist at your Mar a Lago resort.

So my question, sir, now that you are asking black supporters to vote for you, why should black voters trust you after you have used language like that?

Donald Trump
Well, first of all, I don't think I've ever been asked a question so in such a horrible manner. First question.

David Pakman
The crowd is already like, what on earth? This is going wrong? Instantly just opened his mouth.

Donald Trump
Hello, how are you? Are you with ABC? Because I think they're a fake news network. A terrible network.

And I think it's disgraceful that I came here in good spirit.

I love the black population of this country. I've done so much for the black population.

David Pakman
The crowd is in disbelief at what's.

Donald Trump
Happening, including employment, including opportunity zones with Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.

David Pakman
It is beyond belief that this went so poorly. Now there are right wingers cheering this and saying he stepped into the lions den and he did so well.

I don't think so. If you watch the whole thing, I certainly don't think so. He continues to attack the interviewer.

Donald Trump
If I came onto a stage like this and I got treated so rudely as this woman.

Rachel Scott
Oh, my goodness.

David Pakman
This woman. This woman. Wow.

Donald Trump
Treated so rudely as this woman.

Rachel Scott
Oh, my goodness.

Donald Trump
And I'm fine with it because she. It doesn't. She was very rude, sir. Very rude. That was a nasty. That wasn't a question. She didn't ask me a question. That wasn't a question. She gave a statement. That wasn't a question.

Rachel Scott
I repeated the question.

David Pakman
Actually, it was nasty to read my own statements back to me. And it only got worse from here. The topic of the January 6 rioters came up. Trump asked, would you pardon them? And he goes, sure, if they're innocent. To which Rachel Scott points out, well, by there they are definitionally not innocent because they've been convicted. And Trump's like, oh, well, speaker one.

Donald Trump
Portland that destroy, my question is on what's going to happen.

Rachel Scott
Would you pardon what's going to happen?

Donald Trump
Oh, absolutely, I would.

Rachel Scott
You would?

Donald Trump
If they're innocent, I would pardon them. They've been, by the way, the Supreme Court just under, well, they were convicted by a very, very tough system. They were. How come the people that tried to burn down Minneapolis, how come the people that took over a large percentage of Seattle, how come nothing happened to them?

Rachel Scott
How come the people that were talking about flat dragging them down the, they're on video. Have you seen that video, sir?

You would pardon those rioters?

Donald Trump
They shot a young lady in the face who was protesting. They shot her in the face. You know, nobody died that day. You do know that. But people died in Seattle. Nobody died, but people died in Minneapolis. You know, people died in Minneapolis and nothing happens and nobody ever talks and nothing happens to those people. But you went after the J six people with a vengeance. And I'll tell you what, what about the cops that were, and I'm all for the police, as you know, but what about the police that are ushering, ushering everybody into the Capitol?

David Pakman
So this is not a great answer if you're on the side of law and order. And it was all like this, either tangential non responses or attacks on the interviewers. Trump asked, is JD Vance ready on day one to be president of the United States? He would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as your vice president. And Trump basically says vps don't matter. I mean, this is part of why we're wondering, is he done with Vance? Because every opportunity he gets to defend JD, he's kind of like, I don't know, he's a good guy, I respect him, but it doesn't even really matter.

Rachel Scott
And that's why this decision is important this time. Bad things happen. You said it twice.

When you look at JD Vance, is he ready on day one?

Donald Trump
Does he what?

Rachel Scott
Ready on day one if he has to be.

Donald Trump
I've always had great respect for him and for the other candidates, too. But I will say this, and I think this is well documented historically, the vice president in terms of the election, does not have any impact.

David Pakman
I mean, can you imagine for everybody really worried that I picked a doofus. It's completely irrelevant who I picked.

Donald Trump
Virtually no impact. You have two or three days where there's a lot of commotion as to who, like you're having it on the Democrat side, who it's going to be, and then that dies down and it's all about the presidential pick. Virtually never has it mattered. Maybe Lyndon Johnson mattered for different reasons than what we're talking about. Not for vote reasons, but for political reasons, other political reasons. But historically, the choice of a vice president makes no difference.

David Pakman
It's amazing. Could you defend your choice? Have you selected someone who could actually be president?

It's completely irrelevant. What a ringing endorsement. My VP pick is completely irrelevant now. Maybe most relevant to what's going on with JD Vance. Trump says he didn't know about JD Vance's childless cat lady comments when he selected him as the VP and that it's not something he even agrees with.

Rachel Scott
He said the Democrats running the country are a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives in the choices they've made. And so they don't. They want to make the rest of the country miserable, too.

He's not talking here about how great it is to be a parent. He's attacking what he says are the choices people are making to not have children.

Did you know that he had these views about people who do not have children before you picked him to be your running maiden? Do you agree with him?

Donald Trump
No. I know this. He is very family oriented and he thinks family is a great thing. That doesn't mean he thinks that if you don't have a family, it's not. I know people with families. I know people with great families. I know people with very troubled families. And I also know people with no families. They didn't meet the right person. Things happen. You go through life, you don't meet the right person.

Rachel Scott
But he's not just talking about families here. Some of those people that don't have children should get less votes than those that do.

Donald Trump
I'm just speaking for myself. Is that your. I think I'm speaking for him too.

He strongly believes in family. But I know people with great families.

David Pakman
I know people having to defend the crazy things that your vp running mate is going around saying is not a positive thing for your campaign.

Donald Trump
With not great families that don't have a family. And the people without the family are far better. They're superior in many cases. Okay. He's not saying they're not. What he's saying is that he thinks the family experience is a very important thing. It's a very good thing. But that doesn't mean that if you grow up and you grow older and you don't meet somebody that would be wonderful to meet and would have been good, that that's a bad thing. He's not saying that he, my interpretation.

David Pakman
He kind of is station.

Donald Trump
You'll have to ask him, actually. But my interpretation is he's strongly family oriented. But that doesn't mean if you don't have a family, there's something wrong with it.

Rachel Scott
Just one last point and then we'll move on. Just, just one of the bedrock principles of americana life is one person, one vote.

Senator JD Vance has suggested that someone who has children should have more votes than a person who does not have children. I just want to be clear here. Is that the position of your campaign?

Donald Trump
Well, no, but it's not something I have ever heard before.

David Pakman
No, it's not something Trump believes. But he's kind of playing coy and is like, I don't know. Did evance really actually said that Trump then trying to attack Kamala Harris? But it's like these attacks are like nothing. These are just totally flaccid attacks, saying, you know, she didn't pass her bar, her bar exam the first time she might fail a cognitive test that Trump wants. The cognitive test up against Kamala Harris seems very dangerous.

Donald Trump
Speaker one Joe and I will go and take a cognitive test now. I do it with her, too.

I would do it with her also. You know what? She failed her law exam. She didn't pass her law exam. So maybe she wouldn't pass the cognitive test, mister president.

Rachel Scott
She wouldn't pass. Just to be clear.

Donald Trump
I'm just giving you the facts to be clear.

Rachel Scott
You don't think, how do you intend.

Donald Trump
And she wouldn't pass her bar exam and she didn't think she would pass it. And she didn't think she was going to have it pass it. And I don't know what happened. Maybe she passed it.

Rachel Scott
I guess she did pass it.

Donald Trump
There's a man over here.

David Pakman
Speaker one. Yeah.

I don't know that cognitive tests are what he wants to do against Kamala Harris. And then finally, and we'll get to, Kamala became black. That was so crazy. It deserves its own segment. Finally, this completely bizarre interview ends with barely any applause. And Trump just kind of getting up and, and walking away.

Donald Trump
Remember, they're taking your jobs. These people coming in are taking your jobs.

Rachel Scott
Prime Minister 2025, I think we have to leave it there by the Trump team. All right, so leave it. That is the last word. Thank you so much, Mister Trump, for coming. Coming today and joining us.

David Pakman
The audience is just in disbelief.

Donald Trump
Well, thank you very much.

D
They've been telling us.

Rachel Scott
Thank you.

Donald Trump
Thank you, everybody, very much. Great.

Rachel Scott
Thank you, Mister Conway.

Donald Trump
Thank you.

Rachel Scott
NebJ will email about details regarding the conversation with Vice President Kamala Harris in September. Thank you.

Donald Trump
Thank you very much.

Rachel Scott
Thank you, sir.

David Pakman
Oh, man. What?

I had a feeling this could go wrong, but it went way more wrong. You know, I don't know that this is going to push up Trump's black support in Michigan from the zero where it was found to be last week. I don't know that he really achieved that. And then now we are going to look at maybe the wildest moment from the entire thing. I've never seen anything like this.

The audience at Trump's interview with the National association of Black Journalists audibly gasps when Trump says that indian Kamala Harris turned black. She became black.

I saw the headlines before I saw the video and I said to myself, there is no way Trump would be so stupid to go to the NABJ after polling zero among black Americans in Michigan and say something this ridiculous.

But then we saw the video.

Let's play it with a little bit of lead up.

Unbelievable. And the crowd audibly gasping, sir.

Rachel Scott
And then we'll move on to other questions here. Some of your own supporters, including Republicans on Capitol Hill, have labeled Vice President Kamala Harris, who is the first black and asian american woman to serve as vice president, be on a major party ticket, as a DeI hire. Is that acceptable language to you? And will you tell those Republicans and those supporters to stop it?

Donald Trump
How do you, how do you define Dei? Go ahead. How do you define diversity?

Rachel Scott
Equity, inclusion?

Donald Trump
Okay, yeah, go ahead. Is that what your definition?

Rachel Scott
That is.

Donald Trump
Give me a definition then. Would you give me a definition?

Give me a definition.

Rachel Scott
Sir, I'm asking you a question.

Donald Trump
Define the. Define it for me. If you.

Rachel Scott
I just defined it. Sir, do you believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is only on the ticket because she is a black woman?

Donald Trump
Well, I can say no. I think it's maybe a little bit different. So I've known her a long time. Indirectly, not directly, very much. And she was always of indian heritage, and she was only promoting indian heritage. I didn't know she was black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black. And now she wants to be known as black. So I don't know, is she indian or is she black?

Rachel Scott
She has always identified as a black woman.

Donald Trump
College, I respect either one, but she obviously doesn't because she was indian all the way. And then all of a sudden she made a turn and she went, she became a black person.

Rachel Scott
Just to be clear, sir, do you.

Donald Trump
Believe.

David Pakman
This guy's out of his mind?

You know, I don't even know if there is value in talking about the substance here because as many of you may know, Kamala Harris is half indian, half jamaican. And when I was younger and worked at Circuit City, I've mentioned before that I had a jamaican manager, and he would always say he doesn't consider, he says, I'm not African American. And that's what people mean when they say black. So I just tell people I'm not black.

Now, there's a lot of history and scholarship around this. In a strict sense, Jamaicans are not african american, they're Afro Caribbean. Now, some people use black interchangeably with African American. In that sense, if you're jamaican, you're not black.

But at the same time, for many people, black is broader and it just means anyone of african descent. So you could be African American, you could be Afro Caribbean, you could be Afro Cuban, which would be a specific Afro Caribbean. Or some people say, well, Cuba's not really in the Caribbean. Anybody with african descent or folks in Brazil of african descent are black, but they certainly aren't african American in the sense that they're not american from the United States. So there is a conversation there, but that's not what Trump is talking about.

I don't know that we really need to focus on that because what Trump's talking about is just the idea that similar to how he has criticized Elizabeth Warren, that Kamala Harris is calculating when to play up which identity in a way that is nakedly political and cynical and craven or whatever. And I think that that's what this is really about. And as a side note, there is a serious media double standard here. Because think about the weeks and thousands of stories of what we got after Joe Biden's bad debate performance.

This is insane. What Trump said here is absolutely insane. And I assume it's gone from the news cycle, certainly by Monday, if not by this weekend. And so there is a serious double standard there. But this, this is just completely whacked. And as far as Kamala Harris goes, you know, there are, I mean, listen, I'm jewish and I'm hispanic, right? I mean, I'm a jewish individual. And sometimes I talk about anti semitism and when I talk about antisemitism, me being hispanic and from Argentina doesn't really relate to the subject matter. So sometimes people accuse me of playing up, look at the YouTube comments, I play up my jewish identity when it's convenient and I ignore the fact that I'm actually really hispanic. And then similarly, sometimes when we talk about the voting patterns of Central and South Americans, I talk about my family background from Argentina. And then people show up in the comments and they go, I thought you were jewish. You're just doing, this is a common criticism from the right that's used to invalidate people based on identity. And I don't know that we should really play into it is where I land. But what a whacked thing to say. Kamala Harris speaking in Houston yesterday, she addressed Donald Trump's completely whacked out comment that she used to be indian but she became black, which Trump said during an interview at the NABJ, the National association of Black Journalists conference. I think Kamala Harris does a couple of really good things here. And one of the things is she doesn't repeat exactly what Donald Trump said.

And number two, she doesn't directly engage with the substance in trying to defend her identity. She just points out how absolutely pathetic Trumps comments are. I think this is very smart. Lets take a listen.

D
We all here remember what those four years were like.

And today we were given yet another reminder.

This afternoon, Donald Trump spoke at the annual meeting of the National association of Black Journalists.

And it was the same old show, the divisiveness and the disrespect.

And let me just say, the american people deserve better.

The american people deserve better.

The american people, many people deserve a leader who tells the truth, a leader who does not respond with hostility and anger when confronted with the facts.

We deserve a leader who understands that our differences do not divide us.

They are an essential source of our strength.

So I say to Sigma Gamma row sorority incorporated, ours is a fight for the future.

David Pakman
I think this is super smart. She's not going up there and saying, did you hear that? Trump said and quoting him. She's not going up there and saying, as many of you know, I am the daughter of an indian mother and a jamaican father, and my identity and intersectionality, she's not doing that. And I think that's smart because you're starting to play the game. And that's where others have fallen flat.

She's rising above it and saying, this is the kind of garbage that we saw from Trump last time. This is what we are going to continue to see. It's not what the country needs. It's beneath us. I'm not even going to get down in the mud now. There's an argument for getting down in the mud that some will make and on some issues, in some cases, I think that makes sense here it doesn't. I think Kamala Harris handled this absolutely perfectly. Let me know what you think. Info@davidpackman.com right now, we are seeing candidates do whatever it takes to win your vote, and how the media chooses to cover certain stories, if at all, can completely shape your perspective of those candidates. But our sponsor, ground news, is an awesome resource at a time like this. With their vantage plan, I get access to what's called their blind spot feed that shows me stories that can be easily missed. For instance, I'm looking here at Ground news Summary about Trump distancing himself from Project 2025 amid its rising controversy, something we've been talking about. Ground News provides a great summary of the situation based on over 100 articles that ground news found reporting on it. And ground news shows me that almost no conservative news outlets are covering the story. Not a surprise, ground news shows us that the right wing outlets only report on how Trump is denying involvement with the project, while the center and left outlets are actually giving context on Trump's connections to the movement of Project 2025.

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Let's take a deeper dive into how Kamala Harris, replacing Joe Biden as the presumptive democratic presidential nominee, has completely upended this race. It's now been almost two weeks since Joe Biden dropped out, endorsed Kamala Harris, who secured enough delegate endorsements to become the presumptive nominee, also raising record amounts of money, $200 million in the first week of her campaign, importantly, two thirds of which came from first time donors, meaning people who were not previously donors to Joe Biden. Harris also raised $81 million the day after Joe Biden announced his decision. That's the highest 24 hours fundraising haul of any presidential candidate in history, and in a sense, Kamala Harris has revitalized the Democratic Party. The momentum behind Harris is real, and it's a real contrast to Joe Biden, who two thirds of democrats wanted to see drop out of the race. But the question is, can Kamala Harris maintain her momentum? And maybe more importantly, can she defeat Donald Trump in November? So far, the answer is not totally clear. Let's start with how Joe Biden was polling against Trump prior to exiting the race. Then we'll look at Kamala's early polling. According to the real clear politics average, as of July 16, Biden was losing every critical swing state that delivered him victory in 2020, losing Arizona by 5.8, losing Georgia by 3.8, losing Wisconsin by 2.9, losing Michigan by 2.1, losing Nevada by 5%, losing Pennsylvania by 3.8. Given that the electoral college exists, we have to remember that swing state polling is a really important indicator of who's likely to win the election in November.

In every swing state where Biden was losing to Trump, the same polling shows down ballot Senate candidates defeating their MAGA opponents by substantial margins. This includes Ruben Gallego, Jackie Rosen, Tammy Baldwin. When I reported on this in an editorial, many in the audience were upset with me saying the polls are all wrong and Biden is actually ahead. But apparently the polling was convincing enough to Biden himself because as Politico reports, on the eve of his decision to exit the race, Joe Biden's aides showed him internal polling which showed his lead collapsing in the swing states, also in New Mexico and Virginia. So where does this leave Kamala Harris today? Well, the polling on Kamala versus Trump is limited. Her campaign just started, but there are some early indicators that we can look at. Remember that Kamala's fundraising has been incredible, literally record breaking, and that serves as an important proxy to enthusiasm. But before dropping out of the race, Joe Biden's approval was one of the lowest of his presidency, at 38%, according to 538. As of July 30, Kamala's approval rating is not that much higher than Biden's at just 39.6. But in a morning consult poll conducted more recently, Kamala Harris has 50% favorability. That's much better. At this point in her campaign, Kamala's fundraising may be a stronger barometer of her favorability than what 538 or morning consults say, but this is still subject to change. But what about the swing states we reviewed earlier?

The reason swing state polling matters is a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, which often depends on just a handful of critical swing states. Now, the swing state polling looks much better for Kamala Harris than it did for Joe Biden. According to the real clear politics average, as of July 28, Kamala Harris has gained ground in all of the swing states where Biden was losing to Trump. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by about four, down from about six. In Georgia, Trump is ahead by 3.6 instead of 3.8. In Wisconsin, Trump is ahead by just 0.2%, down from almost 3%. In Michigan, Kamala Harris is now leading by two, where Trump led Biden by two. In Nevada, Trump's ahead by four, down from five. And in Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead by 2.7, down from 3.8. Some of the polls included in these real clear politics averages were actually conducted prior to Joe Biden dropping out. So if anything, these are conservative estimates of where Kamala currently stands in this matchup against Donald Trump. Now, additionally, you can find more recent individual polls that are more optimistic for Harris. We've talked about some of them. According to a Bloomberg Morning consult poll done from July 24 to 28, Kamala is leading Trump in Michigan by eleven and leading by two in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump is ahead of Harris by four in Pennsylvania and two in North Carolina. And Georgia is a toss up. We also have polling from Emerson conducted between July 22 and 23rd, which finds Trump is still ahead in Arizona by five, ahead in Georgia by two, Michigan by one and Pennsylvania by two, with Wisconsin as a toss up.

So the takeaway is Kamala Harris's campaign has only just started and the numbers show. At minimum, Harris is competitive and has the potential to gain even more ground after the DNC and after debates. If there are any if Trump agrees to debate her. So let's now talk about the specific path to victory for Kamala Harris. There are actually a few paths electorally which could deliver Kamala Harris the 270 electoral votes she needs to become president.

The first and most likely path would be to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. We're putting up the map of what that would look like if Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but loses Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. It's a razor thin margin, but she would win the presidency and defeat Donald Trump. Now, there's a second path to victory, which is called the Sunbelt path, where Kamala wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Here's what the map would look like in that circumstance. And based on what we're seeing in the polling today, it's unlikely that Kamala will lose all three states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But the point is, even if she does, there is still a path to the presidency for her. Now, a third path for Kamala Harris is winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, but losing Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Here's the map in that scenario. And then a very interesting scenario that could come up if Kamala wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but loses Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and the Omaha district in Nebraska is a 269 269 tie. Now, this is not a good scenario for Kamala Harris because in this scenario, there would be a contingent election in the House where Trump almost certainly wins because republicans almost always have more House delegations.

That makes it a scary scenario, and it just reinforces the importance of winning that Omaha district in Nebraska. Here's what the map would look like in those circumstances. So the main takeaway here is that Kamala Harris has multiple paths to victory. Whereas based on what the polling told us about President Biden, he needed to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to get a second term because he seemed so far behind in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. So there are also other early indicators that Kamala Harris is a formidable opponent to Donald Trump. There's a Fox News poll conducted July 22 to 24th which finds that Kamala Harris's approval rating has surpassed Trump's in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. That's a good sign.

According to ABC News Ipsos polling, Democrats are now more enthusiastic about Kamala Harris than Republicans currently are about Trump. You might recall that previously Republicans were more excited about Trump than Democrats were about Biden. That's an optimistic change. And then there's a CNN survey that shows Harris with a four point lead over Trump among registered voters, 18 to 34. That's an eleven point improvement compared to Joe Biden. There's also an Axios poll finding that Kamala Harris is more popular with voters 18 to 34 than Biden was, and that they are even more likely to vote for her. So these are promising signs for Kamala Harris. But even though she seems to have the momentum, it's very much unclear who's going to win. Trump could very well win a second term. This will almost certainly be a close race. We should not get complacent. Even Kamala herself has acknowledged she's the underdog in this race, and that's probably true even if the polling showed Kamala Harris winning every single swing state by a wide margin, which it does not. It does not show that. But even if it did, we should still behave as if Kamala Harris were behind and we should be campaigning and acting accordingly. It's great that the data suggest Harris has improved relations with that 18 to 34 demographic, but the Harris campaign should not take those votes for granted, especially when it comes to policy.

Kamala Harris should run on at least two to three bold, popular, progressive policies and viciously go after Donald Trump. Her rhetoric on Trump has been very strong. She's opened speeches and rallies saying she's seen Donald Trump's type because she spent so long prosecuting criminals and fraudsters and sexual predators. The contrast between the prosecutor and the convicted felon is a striking contrast, and it also neutralizes the republican attack on Democrats as being soft on crime, which Republicans love to play up. Trump represents the threat to democracy, and the Harris campaign needs to offer something for people to vote for, not just vote against Trump. And so far, Kamala Harris, as of this moment, does not have any policies listed on her website. But in listening to her speeches and rallies, it's clear she will make reproductive freedom a central campaign issue. That's good, but it should be expanded. The policy discussion should go beyond that talk about legislation that she co sponsored as a senator. For example, Harris co sponsored Bernie Sanders free college legislation. Harris co sponsored the Green New Deal legislation with AOC, and as a presidential candidate in 2020, she pitched this $10 trillion climate plan, whose public and private investments would have dwarfed the $1.6 trillion estimated cost of Biden's major climate, energy, infrastructure and tech legislation. As a senator, Harris proposed sweeping tax cuts for the middle class through the Lyft act, which would have provided an annual tax credit of up to $3,000 per person or $6,000 per couple for lower and middle income workers, on top of any benefits they already receive.

So these are just a few ideas that could appeal to progressives. We should not underestimate Trump. He can absolutely win a second term, and we should do everything we can to prevent that from happening. But we also shouldn't underestimate Kamala Harris. She can absolutely win this as well. When she first ran for president in 2020, polling for her peaked at 15% after the first primary debate, which was impressive for a relatively less known politician in the same race as established figures like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. But you might recall that her polling slipped when she went moderate, when she dropped her support for Medicare for all, when she dropped the other flagship progressive policies. So if her 2020 campaign is an indication of how she can win 2024, she should position herself to the left of Joe Biden but to the right of Bernie Sanders. This is not saying what are my politics. This is saying, strategically what positioning makes the most sense. Now. There are still three months to go until the election. That's a very long time in politics. A lot will happen between now and then. Kamala's running mate, the DNC, may be debating Trump. All of these are opportunities for Kamala Harris to improve swing state polling even more. The attacks on Kamala from Republicans so far have fallen pretty flat. They've tried attacking her for her laugh, laugh, laugh. And Kamala the cackle. It hasn't really worked in Trump's favor. It's really only highlighted that Trump rarely laughs and doesn't seem to understand humor.

If anything, it's human, humanized Kamala Harris. They've tried attacking Kamala Harris's handling of the border.

Probably more effective than making fun of her laughter, but also weak in light of the fact that Trump blocked the Biden administration and Congress from passing a bipartisan border bill, which would have restored remain in Mexico and much of what Trump advocates for. So based on everything we've seen so far, it looks like making Kamala Harris the nominee, rather than Joe Biden, has been the right call. We don't have all of the information, including November's results, but polling, fundraising, the implosion of Trump's attacks on the Democrat presumptive democratic nominee, all of these are positively pointing signs. Now what we need to do is vote, donate if we can, phone, bank if we can, and see what happens in November.

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Silent. The crowd is silent. He's losing them, folks.

Donald Trump
Well in line. Chuck Schumer refused to shake the israeli prime minister's hand. Chuck Schumer has become a Palestinian. Yes, sis, can you believe it?

He's become a proud member of Hamas.

Nancy Pelosi likewise denounced the speech in.

David Pakman
Shameful terms, completely and totally deranged. And it's gotten so.

I hate to use the term weird, but it's gotten so weird that even his crowd is like, this is some weird. You know what? Now, there was a moment when Trump's crowd finally perked up, which is when Trump started pushing the transphobia.

Donald Trump
On day one, I will sign a new executive order to cut federal funding for any school, pushing critical race theory, transgender and Saturday, and other inappropriate, inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content that fires them up onto the lives of our children.

And I will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate or a mask mandate.

David Pakman
As I've said before, every public school has vaccine requirements. And this just means Trump will stop funding public education, which, by the way, many Republicans want to do. Trump issuing some of the usual threats that he issued about Joe Biden's forthcoming presidency in 2020. Now about Kamala Harris. The country is over. If we have a President Kamala Harris worse than Biden.

Donald Trump
And he's gone. He's shot.

But if she becomes your president, our country is finished. I'll tell you, in Pennsylvania, your beautiful commonwealth, it's always good when you remember to come. Well, he would call it a state often. Remember when Biden used. I used to love this guy because you were on pins and needles watching him speak. You know, when's he going to blow it? And it would always happen worse than Biden.

David Pakman
None of this is sounding like Trump is particularly coherent for a guy who's focusing only on Joe Biden. And that at another point in the speech, Trump speaking to a completely silent crowd of talking about the cognitive stuff and saying, hey, you know what? They're going after me for talking about Hannibal Lecter. That's not really a problem. And the crowd is weirded out. Weirded out.

Donald Trump
A step above, right?

This is. Oh, they go crazy when they want to try and say, he's cognitively impaired. You know, I stand up here for 2 hours, and I speak without a mistake, but when I say Hannibal Lecter, they say, why does he keep mentioning. Because Hannibal Lecter was a serious psycho, right?

He was silence of the Lambs doctor. Hannibal Lecter, he'd like to have you for dinner. See the man with the wall? Stand up? Look at this guy. He's here so much. He's great. He's great.

David Pakman
I'm guessing Trump's pointing to brick suit guy who we've interviewed. That's my guess here.

Donald Trump
He's a Trump voter.

I don't think we have to worry about him, do we? He's a Trump voter all the way. But Hannibal Lecter would like to have you for dinner.

David Pakman
All right. So not normal. Not normal at all. Trump also talking about Kamala Harris being beautiful or her name being beautiful. It just is degenerating into stream of consciousness nonsense.

Donald Trump
I can't believe I'm doing that. You know the weird thing? I mean, two weeks ago, I was talking about Biden.

I didn't even know her name. Nobody did. Kamala. Hello, beautiful.

I didn't even know her name. Kamala.

David Pakman
Oh, I guess he's saying someone in the audience is beautiful. I don't know. It's all very much jumping from one thing to another. At another moment during the speech, Trump pulls out these lurid anecdotes involving migrant crimes that he likes to hold up as evidence of something, and the crowd really isn't into it. I don't know how else to say it. They're just kind of, like, bored by the whole.

Donald Trump
Every single day you read about one of these horrible monsters from parts unknown who raped a young girl, killed her, cut them up, uses knives, not guns, because it's a slower death. These are monsters and we have them.

David Pakman
The audience seems bored to tell in.

Donald Trump
Our country, and we're going to deport them at a level like nobody's ever seen. We're going to get them the hell out of our country.

David Pakman
There you go. Back to the country from which they that roused them. Okay, we're going to start mass deportations of people, some glitches and slurring from Trump talking about the nation's congregate.

Donald Trump
I don't know, just Chicago and the whole nation's congregate crime rate.

David Pakman
Look, crime rate. He meant the Kong rate was actually the crime rate of. And then as the speech continued, just slurring more and more and more, talking about Mash and stuff like that.

Donald Trump
And in radical islamic terrorism, she backs mass amnesty, mass amnesty and citizenship mask amnesty.

David Pakman
If you are not wearing a mask, we will grant you amnesty for all illegal.

Donald Trump
She supports mandatory gun confiscation.

Would anybody?

David Pakman
Speaker one fiscation. Yeah. So Trump really struggling to get through this one. And finally, all of a sudden, Biden isn't too old to be president. That's not the issue. And of course, the reason Trump is talking about this is that he's basically as old as Joe Biden. And now the contrast is Trump and 59 year old Kamala Harris. Trump now seems like the old guy. Trump now will be the oldest presidential nominee in american history. So Trump's new line has to be the issue is not that Biden is old.

Donald Trump
You know, 81 is not old. I have friends that are 95 that are still Bernie Marcus, founder of Home Depot, 95 years old, still sharp.

Still sharp.

I spoke to him the other day, I said, I think you're smarter now than you were 30 years ago. I don't know what's going, I said, what's going on? It's working every 80. 81 is not all. And, but he's different. He's a, he's a bad 81. He's a bad 81.

David Pakman
There you go. So this is very different than what Trump said two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, Biden was too old. Maga world was saying Biden simply too old. Trump at two and a half years younger is, is the right age now compared to 59 year old Kamala Harris, who has the energy, who has the speaking ability, who has extraordinary energy at rallies, who is just dumping in gobs. Of money and fundraising. Now all of a sudden, 80? One's fine, as long as you're sharp. And by the way, I'm 79 or 78. How old, however old Trump is. And I'm very sharp as well. The problem's just Biden's sharpness, a very different story when he now officially is the oldest presidential nominee in american history. Here's my question for you. Do you expect this to continue declining as we get closer and closer to November, or do you believe that this is about as bad as it's going to get? Let me know. Info at david pakman.com. make sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel. It's free. Just hit the subscribe button. We're pushing to 2.5 million subscribers. We went from 2.2 to 2.3 million yesterday. Can you believe what's happening? Let's get to the 2.5 million. And we have a fantastic bonus show for you today. We are going to dive deep into why the weird allegation about Trump and Vance is working. Why is it working? We will talk about Twitter suspending the white dudes for Harris account after that major fundraiser. And we will also talk about Illinois banning companies from forcing workers to listen to anti union talk.

I'll tell you about at a former job of mine, the anti union videos I was subjected to. All of those stories and more on today's bonus show. Sign up@joinpakman.com comma get instant access and I will see you on the bonus show, and we'll have a new show for you tomorrow.

8/1/24: Trump goes racist & sexist, polling collapses, campaign in freefall

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1: Polling Updates

2: JD Vance's Decline

3: Electoral College Analysis

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