7/17/24: JD Vance & RFK audio leaks, RNC day 2 implodes

This episode critically discusses the second day of the Republican National Convention, touching on speeches by key political figures and the implications of their rhetoric.

1. Recurrent Republican Endorsement: Despite past criticisms, figures like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley continue to endorse Donald Trump, highlighting a pattern of opportunism within the party.
2. Authoritarian Tendencies: Speakers at the convention displayed authoritarian tendencies, particularly through their hostile attitudes towards the media.
3. Contradictory Behaviors: The episode points out the contradiction in the Republican stance on violence and gun control, especially relevant following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
4. Impact of Political Rhetoric: The discussion extends to the potential dangers of such rhetoric inciting violence and eroding democratic norms.
5. Media's Role in Democracy: The episode underscores the essential role of a free press in holding power accountable, which is being threatened by the current political discourse.

1: Introduction and Overview

David Pakman sets the stage for discussing the RNC's second day, focusing on the performative and political aspects of the key speakers. David Pakman: "We're diving into the deep end of political theatrics and opportunism seen at the RNC."

2: Analyzing Key Speeches

Detailed examination of speeches by Ron DeSantis and Carrie Lake, noting their pandering to Trump and authoritarian messaging. David Pakman: "Ron DeSantis's attempt at normalcy fell flat with his forced smile and out-of-touch comments."

3: Media and Authoritarianism

Discussion on how the RNC speakers addressed the media, linking to broader themes of freedom of the press and authoritarianism. David Pakman: "Carrie Lake's ominous warning to the media is a clear sign of authoritarian tendencies."

4: Reflections on Political Violence

Insights into the broader implications of political violence discussed at the convention, including the weapon giveaway post-Trump's assassination attempt. David Pakman: "The giveaway of an AR-15 at the convention just days after Trump was shot at is tone-deaf and alarming."

1. Stay Informed: Regularly consume news from multiple trusted sources to understand the full spectrum of political discourse.
2. Support Free Press: Advocate for and support organizations that promote freedom of the press.
3. Engage Politically: Participate in local and national elections to voice your stance against authoritarian practices.
4. Promote Civil Discourse: Encourage open and respectful discussions about political and social issues in your community.
5. Educate Others: Share insights about the importance of democracy and the dangers of authoritarianism with your network.

-- On the Show:

-- Luke Beasley, host of the Luke Beasley Show and longtime David Pakman Show correspondent, was at the Butler, Pennsylvania rally and witnessed the Donald Trump assassination attempt, and he joins David to discuss

-- A pathetic Ron DeSantis kisses the ring in his speech at the RNC, in humiliating, voice-cracking fashion

-- Kari Lakes issues an ominous warning to the media during her unhinged RNC speech

-- Despite a gunman shooting Donald Trump with an AR-15, there is a raffle for an AR-15 giveaway at the Republican National Convention

-- Unearthed audio from a previous podcast appearance by JD Vance reveals his deep and serious hatred for Donald Trump

-- A narrative builds that God intervened to save Donald Trump from the gunman's bullet, which does not account for the death of an innocent bystander at the hands of that same bullet

-- CNN's Jake Tapper allows Eric Trump to again repeat his diatribe that "they" tried to kill Donald Trump, ignoring that they is a single 20-year-old Republican

-- An absolutely bonkers anti-vaccine phone call between Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr is leaked, a call which took place after Trump's failed assassination attempt

-- Donald Trump's odds of defeating Joe Biden in November drop to their lowest in months in the 538 2024 Election Forecast

-- On the Bonus Show: Morning Joe hosts speak out after Monday's show was pulled, Biden proposes Supreme Court reforms, Bob Menendez found guilty, and much more...

People

Ron DeSantis, Carrie Lake, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley

Companies

None

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

None

Content Warnings:

None

David Pakman
Day two of the Republican National Convention featured Carrie Lake with a dangerous, authoritarian warning to the media, which we will get to in a moment. And it included Ron DeSantis, who is fully kissing the ring, showing up, trying to appear as though he is a normal human, capable of normal human emotions.

One of the most, I would even say the most pathetic speech so far from the first couple days of the Republican National Convention that will crescendo on Thursday night with the speech from Donald Trump. The republican nominee accepting the nomination is Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis, as you know, has struggled for a long time to appear to exhibit normal human emotions. He tried out a new forced smile last night. As many of you know, he has struggled to have a sort of real seeming smile. I understand there's a strong visual component here. I'm going to play 10 seconds and you'll hear what he says. But the most important part, maybe, is his very forced attempt at a smile. Republican state.

Something very odd about this guy. He then talked about the definition of a woman while his voice cracked. And you, you just, you really can't write this stuff. Take a listen to this guy. They can't even define what a woman is. All right, let me, let me play that one once more for you. They can't even define what a woman is. He also bizarrely licked his lips the entire speech and the act like a real person. Training sessions have not been working particularly well. Again, I understand, you know, for our, for our audio listeners, this, you're lacking the visual component, but just imagine him licking his lips for 14 seconds here.

All right, so just absolutely bizarre in every way. And then finally, Ron DeSantis claiming that the woke mind virus finally has been killed in Florida. They've gotten it. It's dead. The left is in retreat. Freedom reigns supreme. The woke mind virus is dead, and Florida is a solid republican state.

And then they would regularly cut to trump during these speeches, during which Trump would just exhibit kind of like a doofy smile. So listen, Nikki Haley showing up and full throatedly endorsing Donald Trump, despite previously saying he is completely unfit to serve and should not have anything to do with the Oval Office. I'm not even going to bother playing Nikki Haley speech. It's just a sycophantic as the sanctimonious is in all of them. Then Ron DeSantis showing up and doing his normal I'm a person sort of stuff, kissing the ring, despite all of the criticisms he made of Donald Trump. What is it that is going on here? Because it is being framed as unity. It's obvious unity in the Republican Party. I think it's just brazen opportunism, which is that at the end of the day, they're all willing to say whatever they think they need to say to win. And then when they lose, they're all willing to say whatever it is they think to say to continue being given access to power.

And it doesn't really matter what they truly believe. Now, what do they truly believe? I think they mostly believe Trump's a buffoon, much like JD Vance. And we have even more audio now unearthed of JD Vance's real opinion of Donald Trump, which we'll get to later.

I think deSantis deep down thinks Trump's a buffoon. I think Nikki Haley deep down knows Trump is a buffoon. The only exception really may be Carrie Lake, who genuinely seems to think that this guy is quite literally God's gift to american politics. I want to talk about her speech next. Carrie Lake apparently taking a break from her pursuit of becoming the rightful governor of Arizona, which, of course, she isn't because she lost that election. Taking a break from campaigning for Senate in Arizona, an unhinged Carrie Lake showed up in Milwaukee last night on day two of the Republican National Convention to issue an ominous warning to the media, to the media, saying the media has worn out its welcome. This is exactly the type of authoritarian leaning that we are terrified of. If Trump, agenda 47, project 2025, the article three foundation, if all of these things become enacted. And here is Carrie Lake, the embodiment of it.

Carrie Lake
This is MAGA energy tonight, guys.

Love it. Oh, wow.

This room, America, I wish you were in this room with us. This is electric. Hello, America. Welcome, everybody who's watching at home and welcome, everybody in this great arena tonight. We love you all.

Actually, wait a minute.

I don't mean that I don't welcome everybody in this meeting in this room. The guys up in the fake news, frankly, all right, frankly, you guys up there in the fake news have worn out your welcome. Right?

You've worn it out, guys. You have spent the last eight years lying about President Donald Trump and his, and his amazing patriotic supporters.

Actually, guys, they lie about everything, okay?

David Pakman
So of course, Carrie Lake, former TV anchor and Obama supporter, now is an anti media Maga Republican. And there's a bunch of things that are relevant to this. First of all, it's more of the same. Remember that the theme, the tendency, the instinct of undermining press freedom and encouraging the authoritarianism and stifling being held accountable by media. That's a lot of the reason why they're, they're so hostile to media. They do and say horrible things, and then they don't want any kind of apparatus that will hold them accountable. They create a hostile environment which arguably can incite violence against members of the media. They polarize the public, even though they said after the shooting of Trump they want to turn down the temperature. They're very much turning it up. They're threatening democratic norms and they're eroding civil discourse. And it's all typical republican stuff. Trump did it when he was president. The attacks on media, you should be off the air, taking Jim Acosta's press pass for the, for the press briefing room, all of that stuff. And they've said they're going to do it again if Trump wins. And Carrie Lake is part of that. She's pushing it, she's fomenting it. That's number one.

But there's another aspect to this that I think is important to mention. Since Trump got shot Saturday, I've been saying, you can denounce violence, denounce shootings, acknowledge that we have two too easy access to too many guns, say that we want to win by voting, not by bullets, all of those things, and still recognize that Trump being shot at doesn't change that. I don't think he would be a good president. And I've been making that very clear.

But Carrie Lake's sort of ominous warning to the media is a reminder that this is not about policy disagreements. This is not about what should the top tax rate be. I know many people, you know, as, as I have matured in my career and many of my friends have matured in their careers, and we are all making more money than we were making ten years ago and 20 years ago, we all, despite being on the political left, say, hey, you know what? It's frustrating. When I look at my taxes and I look at the dollar amount that I pay and I see how much of it goes to the military industrial complex and all of the inefficiencies, I understand the instinct to go, hey, you know what? I don't know if the solution is to tax me more. Right? Okay. That. And yet, of course, I respect and understand the need to have a proper level of taxation, to have a safety net. Okay? But we can all go, hey, you know what? I kind of wish taxes were lower. Whatever the circumstances are, when I look at it and I see what government spends money on in some cases, and the bombs and all these things, I wish my taxes were lower. That doesn't mean we go, hey, I'm going to support a movement that is completely anti democratic and says if the constitution becomes inconvenient, we can suspend parts or all of it. If the press becomes inconvenient, we can suppress it. The point I'm getting at here is that we can have disagreements, or even general agreements with disagreements on the fringes about things like tax policy or education policy or immigration policy or lgbt rights, whatever.

But this is a different animal altogether. This is a completely different political framework in which these people are operating, and it is extraordinarily pernicious. And it's just a reminder of why, okay, they shot at Trump. They missed. Killing people is not the way to solve political problems. But we still need to do the right thing in November, which means preventing Donald Trump from winning. And Carrie Lake's ominous warning about the press is just the latest reminder of that. This is absolutely mind blowing. You may recall that on Saturday, a gunman shot Donald Trump with an AR 15 rifle, and the RNC is allowing you to win a free AR 15 rifle.

It almost takes your breath away. Rolling Stone reports a gunman shot at Trump with an AR 15.

RNC visitors can win a free one the assassination attempt against Trump didn't change the GOP's deadly gun politics.

Just days after Donald Trump was shot, visitors with an AR 15 visitors to his 2024 nominating convention can enter to win a free yes, AR 15.

Wow.

The giveaway is sponsored by an RNC vendor called the US Concealed Carry association, founded in 2003, based in Wisconsin, claims to have 800,000 members. They pitched themselves as a concealed carry advocacy group. The gun violence publication the trace has highlighted the group as one of those scrambling to fill the NRA's void. As you know, the NRA quite beleaguered over recent years.

USCCA's membership pitched a is based around obtaining insurance through the group meant for anyone who might use a gun to kill in self defense.

To get MAGA conventioneers extra interested in membership, the group is promoting a giveaway for an AR 15 manufactured by Daniel Defense. The exact model would be tailored to what's legal in the state of the winner. Daniel defense rifles are infamous for not being used in self defense scenarios. The Uvalde school shooter used one. Several Daniel defense rifles were found in the stockpile of the Vegas shooter who murdered dozens shooting down from a hotel room. And an AR 15 was also used in the assassination attempt against Trump. And the article goes on to explain there's a QR code and then there's a giveaway. You can enter your email and phone number, and they'll also give you a situational awareness guide in order to keep your family safe.

The, you know, my reaction is this is, it's completely tone deaf. The RNC is tone deaf. Republicans are tone deaf. This organization is tone deaf. You just had your guy shot with one of these and you're saying, we'll give you a free one. Give us your email address and your phone number. Probably not a good idea, but I would be wrong. It would be tone deaf if there was any common sense here. But it is nothing. This is the modern republican party, and an attempted assassination of their dear leader is not going to stop that. If anything, they will always find a way to celebrate guns. And an attempted assassination of their leader with an AR 15 doesn't mean, hey, maybe let's stop glorifying Ar fifteen s to them. It means, let's get more ar 15s in the hands of people so that they can defend themselves. Of course, it's Trump's choice that guns are not allowed at his events. And there are, of course, those who are saying, hey, you know what? The solution would have been because law enforcement was slow to act and Secret Service on the roof was what if they just allowed everybody to be armed? Then everybody would be super safe. Well, Trump and his own security don't believe that, which is why they don't allow firearms into Trump's events. So absolutely mind blowing that this is going on, but probably a feature rather than a bug.

If you try to understand republican thinking at this point in time. Let's take a very quick break. We have newly unearthed audio from JD Vance.

I wasn't going to deal with this, but I'm going to deal with the story that God controlled the bullet so that it would miss Trump.

Of course, it ended up hitting someone else and killing them. How do they contend with that? We'll discuss all of those stories and more after this short break.

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And they are on join Pacman with pack or Pac. It's pa k m A n. Join pacman.com coupon code save democracy 24 JD Vance's hate for Donald Trump is even deeper and more extensive and more specific than we thought. Donald Trump announcing that republican senator from Ohio, JD Vance, will be his running mate. Immediately, endless clips and comments from JD Vance about Trump being noxious, America's Hitler and so on and so forth, were unearthed. There is additional new audio now, which I'm going to play for you. This is audio of JD Vance back in 2016 on the Matt Jones podcast promoting his book. And you will hear Matt Jones say, I think Trump's a total fraud. And Vance saying, I agree with you. Take a listen to this. And.

Matt Jones
And I cannot stand Trump because I think he's a fraud. Well, I think he's a total fraud that is exploiting these people, who is a total fraud.

David Pakman
That I agree with you on Trump because I don't think that he's the person. I don't think he actually cares about folks, but I think that. That I'm gonna vote for. I'm gonna vote third party because I can't stomach Trump.

JD Vance
I think that he's noxious and is.

David Pakman
Leading the white working class to a very dark place.

JD Vance also argued back in 2016 that if white working class Americans went to church more, they would be less attracted to Trump, which kind of is true. Although at the same time, although initially the evangelical churchgoers rejected Trump and wanted Ted Cruz, they eventually fell in line because their hatred of Hillary Clinton and Democrats was more significant. So there's a couple of stories here. First of all, is, generically, they all kind of seem to hate him, right? I mean, you look back at the things Doug Bergam previously said, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, just about everybody who was being seriously considered, or even less seriously considered to be Trump's VPN, they all seem to have at some point really disliked the guy. The question then becomes, which we've explored a little bit. Did they change their minds? Did they really do a 180? Did they have a moment where they said, you know what, all of my initial impressions of Donald Trump were actually wrong. He's actually great. Great for us and great for the Republican Party. I just don't believe it. I just don't think there's any evidence for that, particularly, particularly when you consider that the Republican Party has lost mostly everything since Donald Trump became president in 2016. So all of these Republicans who initially said, this is not good, this guy's not good for us, their initial belief is what was confirmed by the electoral results. And so I believe JD Vance still thinks Trump's a buffoon. I think Trump's choices were limited mostly to people who do think that he's a buffoon.

But the, the ultimate reason for going with JD Vance is he has at least publicly said that he will be completely and totally, totally loyal to Trump. He's publicly said, if I were in Mike Pence's shoes back in January of 2021, I would have sent the election back to the states, which is kind of meaningless and not really a thing, but it's what Trump wants to hear. And, and JD Vance is at least claiming that he will be functionally a doormat for Trump to walk all over. The question is, because what is valued right now in MAGA is claims of loyalty, the appearance of loyalty, because that's all that's been tested so far. There is a question as to whether, if the rubber met the road, JD Vance would be as loyal as he claims he would would be, despite his obvious disgust with Trump as a functionary of the republican party. We may never know. And the ideal scenario would be never to put JD Vance in the position of being vice president. And we just don't find out. I wasn't going to address this because it's dicey, but at this point it's so prevalent that I have to. They say that God saved Trump from the bullet meant to kill him on Saturday, which raises the obvious question of why God didn't save the guy that the bullet hit and the fact that a completely innocent bystander was shot dead. It's a really difficult thing to contend with, isn't it? Here is Sarah Huckabee Sanders, absolutely vile republican functionary, last night at the RNC, saying God intervened to save Trump from that assassination attempt.

Not even an assassin's bullet could stop him.

Carrie Lake
God Almighty intervened because America is one nation under God and he is certainly.

David Pakman
Not finished with President Trump.

There you go. And a standing ovation for that. They always seem to know exactly what God is thinking and doing. It's interesting. Then we see Vivek Ramaswami jumping on the exact same thing made particularly interesting since Vivek is Hindu. We'll talk about that in a moment. Give us his perspective on what he thinks. Vivek, it's great to have you on the show. It's a horrifying day for the United States of America. I want your thoughts. When you first heard about this, what went through your mind? What's going through your mind now?

Vivek Ramaswami
What's going through my mind now? First of all, is we heard the story of that person, an innocent, enthusiastic rally goer who was shot and killed first. Our heart goes out to them, and our condolences goes out to that family. But I should say this, trace, is that I personally believe that God intervened today not just on behalf of President Trump, but on behalf of our country. If you think about this, one centimeters distance in the path of a bullet was the future of not only Donald Trump's life, but I think the life of the United States of America. Imagine what we would be talking about today were it not for a hair's length difference in the path of a bullet.

David Pakman
So Vivek is Hindu. I wonder which God he believes intervened. Is it the Christian God that Vivek presumably doesn't believe in? Is it the Hindu God intervening on the behalf of a Christian, but allowing, I believe, the guy who was killed, also a Christian, to die? We have to contend with that. And then, as a kind of bonus, as, as whacked as this is, Megyn Kelly had an even crazier version of this, I think, based on some kind of numerology, was shot at 06:11 p.m. a. Couple people have sent this to me. 611 pm.

You read episodes 611 in the Bible.

It reads as follows, in part, put on the full armor of God so that you can take your stand against the devil's schemes.

611 he was shot. And that's 611. All right, so that is, that's, it seems completely delusional what Megyn Kelly is saying. I'm not even going to deal with that. So think of the problems with this idea, the idea that God intervened so that the bullet grazed Trump's ear rather than killing him. First of all, it implies some kind of selective divine intervention. It saved Trump, but still allowed the bullet to graze him, but it allowed the death of an innocent person. Or maybe we are to assume that person wasn't innocent, which is also an extraordinarily disturbing thing to suggest and also, arguably devastating for the family of that victim. If God has the power to redirect the bullet, why not prevent the assassination attempt altogether? Why not prevent the shooter from being born? Why not make the gun jam so that nobody gets killed? And it leads to this very troubling moral stance, implicitly, where the life of one individual is deemed more valuable than the life of another. Well, God could have, I guess, intervened to save everybody on that day, but only intervened to save Trump. Trump's life must be more valuable, I guess, than the guy who died. It conflicts with many religious teachings that emphasize the equal value of all human lives, which many of the very same christians now arguing this say every life is sacred, even at conception, and yet God intervenes only to save Trump. And, of course, if I'm a family member of the victim who was killed by the bullet intended for Trump, it trivializes that tragedy experienced by the family and by the loved ones of the innocent bystander.

Imagine being a family member of the victim. Now, of course, if you confront them with this, they will come up with, they will come up with things. God works in mysterious ways. Or I'm misinterpreting this, or I'm misinterpreting that, the sort of Jordan Peterson thing, which is like, no, no, no. You're, you're just not understanding what we really mean and what God really means and what God is capable of and all, they'll come up with something. But, of course, you only need a pretty basic analysis to understand the really serious problems with this. And I just played you three examples of it. There are many, many more. Let me know what you think of it. CNN host Jake Tapper allowed Eric Trump last night during an interview at the RNC to again push the they tried to kill Trump hypothesis. And of course, the question is, who is the theyd? It's a 20 year old Republican. That's what, that's what they is. And so they're doing this in every interview. Now, I played a clip yesterday from Monday.

Now we have a clip from night two.

Here is Eric Trump.

Matt Jones
You know, they tried to take his life. That was those, the final attack. And thank God it didn't work out. But then he walks in here to just a sea of love. And, you know, as much reporting as you've done from in here, I know how much love you've seen in this room. The american flags, the red hats, the, you know, people who love America, they're proud to be american. They want America to be number one at everything we do. They're, they're patriotic. They love our constitution. They love religion in this country.

David Pakman
I mean, these, all right, so you get it. There's no pushback on they. And Eric Trump starts this by saying they, they tried to kill him. They is one registered Republican. And, you know, I'm being a little facetious here, but it's Republicans who love to say there are two genders. There's he and there's she. As far as pronouns go, him and her. They singular shouldn't ever be used. They love to argue this in the context of trans they don't like they singular. And now Eric Trump, every single day in multiple interviews, is talking about they tried to kill my dad. But they is 120 year old Republican whose motive we still don't know, but potentially is motivated by some of the same ideology that motivated Alex Jones a few months ago to say, the best case scenario is actually killing Trump.

So my desire would be that while trying to be sensitive to the fact that Trump did survive an assassination attempt, we get a little more about the they and the desegregation that needs to happen between they tried to jail him, they tried to impeach him, they tried to kill him. Well, the impeachment is a political process involving members of the House and Senate. Indictment is a judicial process involving prosecutors and investigators. The assassination attempt is 120 year old Republican with an AR 15 and explosives in his car in Butler, Pennsylvania last Saturday.

I wish interviewers would push back against it. Let's see if they do in the next couple of days.

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It is what it is. What is that?

JD Vance
All right, we are in. Where are we? Butler, Pennsylvania, at a Trump rally. And everyone's running away because we think we just heard gunshots.

As you can see, everyone's running away there and we have no idea what's happening right now.

Matt Jones
He says he's bleeding from his ear.

David Pakman
Go that way.

Donald Trump
Don't I know what happened?

JD Vance
No, assassination is.

Donald Trump
How about they're shooting three gunshots?

David Pakman
Hey, come on.

JD Vance
So what people are saying, we have not confirmed this yet, but is that Trump was shot in the ear.

We're still waiting to get more information.

David Pakman
So, Luke, listen, that, that is extraordinarily intense video. I mean, just to start with and walk through this, when you got to the rally, was it just like any other Trump rally you've been to? Was the security any different? Some people said it was scaled back in some way. Did you notice anything different about security?

JD Vance
Didn't notice anything differently, except for in reflecting one of the things that people have been saying. He sort of referenced it there is. Well, surely this is because they didn't have enough resources there. That had to be the issue. But as is the case with any of these events, a Biden event or a Trump event, there's security everywhere, Secret Service everywhere, law enforcement everywhere, which I think gets to why I have a hard time believing this. Washington a lack of resource. And it feels like there had to be some sort of lapse mistake, miscommunication, miscoordination for what happened to have happened, because there was still a massive law enforcement presence. And that always causes a logistical nightmare to get into the event. And so that was clearly present, which makes the tragedy that much more tragic.

David Pakman
In the video we saw, when the shots ring out, you seem to be kind of on like a dirt path of some kind or a gravel path, and tell us, is that, is that true? It seemed like you were right in the middle of just doing one of your normal interviews. Where were you in reference both to the stage and the shooter so often.

JD Vance
Because of how many cameras and microphones, secret service isn't hyped about us going in through the magnetometers, actually into the event. So we were right before you would enter into it. And you're right, it was a gravel path conducting a normal interview. And as you could see in the video, it just took a long time to figure out what exactly was happening. And initially, the thought, I think, for most people, was that fireworks. And because we were just far enough, we couldn't see what was going on on the stage, really, we were just reacting to the crowd reaction, which gets to something I may get into in more detail later, which is just the phenomenon of a mass crowd crisis event and how quickly misinformation about what's happening, how quickly that spreads around and confuses everybody. But we were just on the outside. That made it even more confusing because we couldn't see the stage.

David Pakman
At some point, were you able, before you left, to see the location of the shooter relative generally to where the stage was and get like an in person sense of how close the two were to each other? Like, we know it's some, I think they said 100, 3160 yards. But being there, did you get a sense of how far this looks?

JD Vance
So as we were in the video, you saw sort of jogging away.

The parts we didn't get when we stopped recording was when we would sort of stop and look around, talking to people, what's, what's going on right now. And one of the things that we did take note of was okay, as we're figuring out that this was probably an assassination attempt and not some sort of mass shooting of the crowd, which was our initial thought for some reason, then we started looking around at where the, the wannabe assassin, the shooter would have been. And our thought was surely, because we didn't know it was that building, but you can see it so closely, and so it was surely it's not that building, because that would be the most obvious place where they would definitely clear off. You would expect even law enforcement to be up on that roof based on the past events I've seen, just given that it really was in person, so close and such a clear, you know, a clear, I don't want to say shot, but that's what it ended up being to the stage. You could see very clearly from the stage to that building.

David Pakman
How long was it, when you go, fireworks, mass shooting, assassination attempt, that knowledge, how many minutes did it take?

JD Vance
So I think you saw in the video, for the audience, the shift between, for a lot of people, fireworks and shooting, and then between, is this just a mass shooting of the crowd or something different? Quite some time, because I think there wouldn't have been necessarily an evacuation so quickly if everyone knew what had really played out, because very quickly the Secret Service were able to neutralize and kill the shooter, so then it was safe again. But I guess there was the question even then, of there being an additional shooter at least that concerned. So I'd say it was 20 minutes, half an hour for a lot of people because the Internet reception was really bad to figure out that it was safe where we were.

Immediately people started storming out of, and I think you saw some of this on the video out of the event territory. And that, I think, plays into people thinking this, not knowing what was going on.

But then, to my earlier point, what was fascinating in sort of a dark and unfortunate way was just how many different certain stories I was hearing as we were making our way out, talking to other people, people saying, no, I'm certain he was shot in the chest, or I was certain that he's still laying out on the stage and he being Trump, right? He being Trump, right?

David Pakman
Yeah.

JD Vance
And I am certain there were two different shooters and there were 15 shots that went off. Just all of that type of stuff to me, because I've never been in this type of situation where you're in a large crowd as a crisis happens, informed me on how it's so understandable that sometimes the press will get all these conflicting reports about what people are seeing on the ground. That was very noticeable.

David Pakman
There were, on video, there was this moment that was confusing where right after the shooting happened, there was sort of like you could sense a group in the crowd being angry and yelling at someone. It's later been reported that it was kind of yelling at the media and saying, you, you caused this sort of stuff. Did you notice anything like that? Did anyone yell at you at any point? Or do, do you have any thoughts on that aspect of it?

JD Vance
It.

So right after, I will be honest, in our conversations with people, interestingly, right after we went probably a mile away, trying to get cell service to just some random pub bar a little while or a little bit away from the event. And there I did feel pretty uncomfortable knowing that if anyone knew who I was or asked for specifics about who I was, they would feel some sort of rage towards me, which logically wouldn't make sense because we're as opposed to this violence as anyone else. And this gets into the immediate response on the ground from people is the same thing playing out across the Internet and right wing media, et cetera, which is trying to unfortunately use this situation regardless of the facts, because we're getting facts that indicate it's probably not even a left winger, but to further exacerbate tensions, to further divide people and generalize or connect the shooter to, oh, that's the Democratic Party, they did that just like they tried to prosecute Trump. And so that response that we're seeing play out more broadly was the immediate response from people on the ground, too, of wanting even more revenge and feeling like this was something that Biden should be blamed for.

David Pakman
Has this made you rethink going to these events? I don't know if it's 20 or 50 or 100 of these that you've been to so far. I know it's a lot.

What's your thought about going to future ones?

JD Vance
No. People always ask, even before this, that sort of question, does it feel unsafe? And my answer has often been, oh, there's nowhere that's safer because there's so much law enforcement present.

David Pakman
Right.

JD Vance
Or law enforcement presence. And that is a confusing prospect, like I mentioned earlier, given what ended up taking place. But I don't think so. For me, what's far more scary is as more of these videos get more views, the prospect of someone being really upset with me and recognizing me, it's a little bit more frightening, as sometimes happens, just because they, it's sort of their, their dream to come across me here and then give me a piece of their. Piece of their mind. So that's more intimidating than an event like this happening again, but definitely still shocked by what happened.

David Pakman
Do I. This is going to sound so silly, but it's actually. I've just been reading a book that kind of relates to this. Do you ever. What about altering your appearance in subtle but effective ways? And there's so many different ways to do it, whether it's hair, eyebrows, you know, I don't know. Like, is it the sort of thing where you would say, I want to figure out a way to keep doing it in order to allay some of those fears or you're considering. I don't know if this is really the right thing for me.

JD Vance
No, I think it's too.

Even in the moment, but then definitely in people's viewing of it, just too engaging and fascinating to stop going altogether.

I've never thought of a disguise, to be honest. That's a new thought I'm going to have to consider. One thing I don't like, which is why I try to rarely do this style of interviews with love to anyone who does it this way. I hate the idea of sort of misleading. You see some people who will sort of pretend like they're on board to get to say something crazy. I try to be pretty upfront and maybe a disguise would make me feel even more like I'm misleading them, but that would be interesting, maybe even more fun.

David Pakman
Yeah, I mean, I'm not talking about dressing like a clown necessarily, but I just mean, you know, subtle, subtle sort of things. So let's get back to the aftermath. So we see a bunch of it in the 72nd clip we played at the top of the interview. You eventually get out, you go to a pub that's nearby. What's the scene at the pub? Everybody knows what's going on and where it went on.

JD Vance
So for quite some time, anyone walking the mile, I think that it was in between where the rally was taking place, to the pub. A lot of people were just trying to find somewhere with cell reception to tell their family they were okay, and in our case, trying to get in contact with the person who was going to take us home. And so there was still a lot of confusion, but it was the pub where the tvs were on and they had Wi Fi. And so that's where everyone just surrounded around the bar and just watched the tv. And so, similarly to all of you, if you immediately jumped on and watched the tv reporting about it, we were getting the exact same information for the first time in actually understanding what happened. And so it was just a whole group of people surrounded or surrounding the bar tv and being informed on what we just witnessed and experienced.

David Pakman
Was there any information that started kind of being passed around in the pub environment that ended up being completely wrong? From the conversations you overheard.

JD Vance
I will say the pub environment was where everything started to get clarified because they had a couple different outlets reporting on what was going on. One thing that everyone has heard was the, oh, it was a teleprompter. Piece of shrapnel, actually was the thing that hit the air that ended up not being the case. So that was something everyone thought could have been the case. But no, it was more so right after it. People getting to their cars and standing around trying to decide if they were going to leave or what was going to go on, and hearing what people were saying very authoritatively about what took place, and some people saying, he's passed away. We saw it, he's done, he's, you know, he had been killed. Trump, that is. And that turned out not to be the case, luckily. And then some other, just random details of where the, how many shooters, where Trump was originally shot, if someone in the crowd had been hit, stuff like that was wrong until we got informed at the pub.

David Pakman
This next question maybe is more relevant to when you were still at the event in the kind of aftermath and starting to get out and everybody trying to figure out what was going on. There was this very brief moment where, you know, Maga Mike Johnson says, we need unity. And all of a sudden, everybody's doing very empathetic interviews with the people that were there, and everybody's kind of friends and united.

And it was so brief. And then all of a sudden, all of the crazy politicking just went right back. They're raffling off an AR 15 at the RNC. Despite the fact that that's the type of firearm that was used here. You know, all this crazy stuff, everything's kind of back to it. Trump's posting his stuff on truth social. Was there any moment there where all of a sudden, the very palpable divisions in worldview between you and these Trump supporters that you've now experienced at dozens of these rallies evaporated? Was there any moment of that while you were there?

JD Vance
No, but also, I didn't get the experience of seeing how they would respond to the fact that I am not on their side ideologically, because for all the people we were spending time with in the aftermath, we didn't take note of that. And sort of interact as if we were also in the audience or left it, left it neutral. So I didn't get to see how they reacted. But unfortunately, I will say the ideology does go deep because even before people had gotten their signals from right wing media, there was this instant rage towards Biden. I kept hearing Biden, see, he tried to take him off the ballot. He tried to get him out of the race through prosecutions, and now he tried to kill him in it. In the moment, of course, as you've been reporting on your show as well, it's just, how could that possibly be the same individual? And is there any evidence Biden has any involvement? Of course not immediately trying to lower the temperature, even the opposite of what they were thinking. But it shocked me. I always sort of had the feeling that people needed to be told by right wing media certain things to then go out and express them, especially something as provocative as the left as a whole tried to do this, even as it's a registered Republican, but actually, they're primed enough to instantly jump into that sort of thinking. So that was actually really depressing.

David Pakman
Did you, do you have any different experience or belief about, or opinion about this incident by virtue of the fact that you were there? And the reason I ask is most people who are aware of and weighing in on what happened, weren't there. You happen to have been there. And there's a question. This comes up when people weigh in about should we be in a particular war or whatever the you, you, unless you were there, you don't really, in this particular case. I mean, is there really any difference at all that you can articulate by the fact that you were there? And lots of the other people commenting on it, like me, simply were not there.

JD Vance
As a general rule, I don't like when people make such an argument. You had to be there because I think most of the time you can just be rational, observe the facts that you can, and come to a correct conclusion, even if you haven't been in the exact situation being discussed. And that stands for this, too. The only thing is, I have seen not elected democrats. I just appeared on piers morgan show a couple of days ago.

David Pakman
I saw this.

JD Vance
Yeah. Debating with a guy, just sort of talking about this. And I don't like seeing, even though it's not coming from elected Democrats, which was the point I kept making on Piers Morgan, a difference between powerful Democrats denouncing this universally and powerful Republicans joking whenever it was Democrats being attacked. And so there's a contrast there, but there still are people on our quote unquote side, however you would define it, who are making light of it. And I think the most accurate thing I could say about being there that makes my stance unique or informed it in any way was just, even though I'm arguing with most of the people in those interviews, it's still often so friendly, as you've seen, laughing. And I was actually laughing right before it happened. And people are getting their hot dogs and just sort of talking with their family and kids are there. So experiencing it that viscerally makes me even more upset, even though I'd already be when people make light of it, because we would not accept that in any situation and we shouldn't accept it in this one. So that would be my only thing. But otherwise, I think people's responses are about the same as, as mine, very trivially.

David Pakman
Luke, before I let you go, understanding this is a transition, how bad, in general is the food at these rallies, and how bad are the sandy cans?

JD Vance
Speaker one, I honestly don't know what the second thing is that you said.

David Pakman
Oh, Porta potties. Porta potties.

JD Vance
Oh, okay.

David Pakman
You know, might be a northeast thing that we call them sanicans.

JD Vance
I have to say, you named the two things that are top of the list for me to avoid when I go to these events.

David Pakman
Got it.

JD Vance
So I don't think I've ever eaten a piece of food from one of these rallies, so I couldn't tell you.

And I try to make sure that I'm completely rest roomed out before we get there.

David Pakman
Got it? Got it. All right, Luke Beasley, host of the Luke Beasley show. You can find his YouTube channel at. Actually, we have a shortcut at david pakman.com. luke. Luke, thanks for talking to us and obviously glad that you're safe.

JD Vance
Thanks, David.

David Pakman
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In the aftermath of the failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday, Trump spoke on the phone with Robert F. Kennedy Junior. This phone call, apparently despite RFK's intentions, was recorded and now has been leaked. And the content of this phone call is extraordinarily troubling. There are two elements to this. First of all, on the phone with RFK, Trump expresses anti vaccine sentiment that I've never heard from Trump before, and it lines up very much with what RFK believes. In addition to this, Trump talks about how we are going to win, to which RFK says, yeah, and there's a few interpretations of that which we will talk about. So let's get into this video.

Donald Trump
Really you, man, something's wrong with that whole system.

I want to do small doses, small doses.

When you feed a baby, Bobby, a vaccination that is like 38 different vaccines, and it looks like it's meant for a horse, not a ten pound or 20 pound baby. It looks like you should be giving a horse.

And do you ever see the size of it? Right. You know, it's just massive.

And then you see the baby all of a sudden starting to change radically. I've seen it too many times. And then you hear that it doesn't have an impact. Right. But you and I talked about that a long time ago.

David Pakman
So Trump here saying, you give babies vaccines, all of a sudden they change. And this is right in line with the sort of thing that RFK and people in his universe have been pushing.

Donald Trump
And I think it'll be so good for you and so big for you. And we're going to win ahead of the guy.

David Pakman
There it is. We're going to win. We're way ahead of the guy. And Bobby says, yeah, now, yeah, could be. I understand you believe that. Yeah, could be. I do believe you're going to win. Yeah, could be. I consider myself part of the we with you, Donald Trump, suggesting that there is some kind of shared goal between Trump and RFK of making sure that Trump wins. You could interpret that a whole bunch of ways. And I will leave it to you.

Donald Trump
And you know, he's interested. It was very nice, actually. He called me and he said, how did you choose to move to the right?

So I guess that's, people said, you know, if I was looking straight up, he said, they said, I was just showing a chart. I didn't have to tell him the chart was on all the people pouring into our country. Right. But just turned my head to show the chart and something wrapped me. It felt like a giant, like the world's largest mosquito.

And it was, it was a bullet going around, you know, what do they call that, an AR 15 or something? That's a big gun. Those are pretty tough guns. Right?

David Pakman
So, I mean, what, how do we even take this apart?

First of all, is this Trump's real belief about vaccines, or is Trump doing this the thing that sometimes is done where you kind of adjust your opinion based on who you're talking to? Trump certainly will adjust his opinion. We know, from what people say to him right before he goes on stage or the latest thing he was told.

But does Trump also try to kind of placate people by espousing their views when he gets on the phone with them or not? We just don't know. We just don't know. This is 100 seconds of a phone call whose total duration I'm not totally clear on. And then, of course, the we are going to win. And RFK says, yeah, and the, you know, the, the only really benign interpretation is that RFK is just saying, I got you. You believe you're going to win.

At the same time, it could very much mean, I agree that you're going to win, and yet I am staying in this race for reasons that are undefinable or maybe to help you win. And then, of course, the we are going to win. Trump uses the royal we all the time. So I think it's probably a little bit of a stretch to consider that Trump meant we as an RFK and Trump will win by virtue of Trump getting elected. But I'll tell you, I don't know, a wild phone call whose implications are potentially far reaching. It apparently was not meant to be released. RFK tweeted or put out a statement that he's horrified that it was released, but it was, and this is the content and it is pretty bonkers stuff. In the midst of everything that's going on, we await post assassination attempt and post RNC polling as to the shape of the presidential race. One of the very interesting bits of news I have for you today is that now, during the RNC, Trump's chance of winning is the lowest it has been in months, according to the 538 2024. Election forecast, which includes non polling factors. What are the economic indicators? What are the political indicators?

They now are putting out a model which is just one model. These are not votes. It's three and a half months out. But it is a data point we can look at.

The model today has this race at a 54% chance of Biden securing reelection and a 46% chance of Trump securing a second non consecutive term.

This is the worst positioning for Trump in about two plus months.

Why is this going on? Well, if you read through the model, the polling is part of this. The polling is part of this, but economic growth indicators are part of it. Political indicators are part of it, looking specifically at swing states as part of it. Now, this is not dispositive in any way. There is a real possibility that Biden will get crushed in November. There's a real possibility that Trump will get crushed. This is an n of one. We have never had an election like this, in which we have a rematch of the prior election where the nominee for one party is a former president, survived an assassination attempt, was found to be a civilly liable rapist, and convicted on 34 felony counts.

And in addition to that, the incumbent president has 72% of the country believing that he is not fit to serve, in part based on a debate performance gone wrong. It's an n of one. And so this is why we find ourselves saying, what is the right model to consider here? Is it strictly looking at polling, or is it a qualitative model like that of Alan Lichtman's keys to the White House? We interviewed him last week. He had one perspective, or is it a sort of one off analysis that doesn't take any particular model, but says, here is the way we can take into account all of the factors we can conceive of. I don't. I do not know the answer. And increasingly, what was anger for many in my audience about the fact that I'm not loudly saying, this is Biden's to lose, or Biden's out of this, or Biden should be replaced or whatever. That ambivalence and lack of clarity in the emails that we're receiving is now increasingly, increasingly represented. So I am now at the point where I want to see, where is the polling and where are the models? Roughly halfway between the RNC and the DNC, at which point, maybe we'll get sort of a better sense of that. The other thing I want to mention, and I don't think that right now is the time to do this. So we'll probably do it next week or the week after. The replace Biden movement, in a sense, has died down from a media standpoint between the assassination attempt and the RNC, the corporate media discussion of the replace Biden movement from within the democratic party has died down.

But if you actually pay attention more closely to what many elected Democrats are saying, there is reportedly absolute and total panic and a renewed or continued desire to replace Joe Biden from one faction while another faction that includes Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and others, another faction says, no, no, no, Biden's the guy. We've got to stick with Biden at this point. It would be a disaster.

Every opinion represented here, both in terms of our audience and in terms of elected Democrats. So we will review once again the circumstances with the discussion around the replacement of Biden, probably next week once we get beyond the RNC and at that point, hopefully we'll have some new polling as well. We have a fantastic bonus show for you today. I don't know how many of you know, but in the aftermath of the failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump, MSNBC's Morning Joe was preempted. Preempted. And the hosts of Morning Joe are threatening to quit if it happens again. Why was it done? That's question number one. We'll discuss it and much more. President Biden is also set to announce support for major changes to the Supreme Court, which we will be discussing as well on the bonus show. And lastly, I'm not hiding the story. Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat, has been found guilty in a criminal bribery scheme. Unlike those who say President Biden was involved in a criminal bribery scheme, there is evidence that Senator Menendez was involved in a criminal bribery scheme, evidence enough to bring an indictment and now evidence enough to bring a guilty verdict. Menendez says he's going to appeal and he's innocent and so on and so forth. It seems pretty clear that a jury has spoken. We will discuss that on the bonus show, as well as democratic and republican reaction to it. So if you don't have access to the bonus show, the bonus show where you want to make money, everybody else that makes money to fund themselves is bad.

That's conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. He really doesn't like the bonus show. If you don't yet have access, grab a membership@joinpakman.com. and remember that my forthcoming nonfiction book, the Echo Machine, is available for pre order. This is like, pre, pre order on Amazon, barnes and Noble, bookshop.org, comma, audible, iTunes, Apple books, Kindle, the whole thing. Okay? So you can get early pre orders in, but I will let you know when we really start the preorder campaign in earnest. I'll see you on the bonus show, and I'll be back here tomorrow.