6/27/24: Trump/Biden debate TONIGHT, RFK will debate himself

David Pakman
Well, it is finally that very special day. It is debate day in America. We will have the first of what are expected to be two presidential debates tonight at 09:00 p.m. eastern time. I hope you will join me live at 07:30 p.m. eastern time on YouTube, Twitch and Facebook for our live debate pre show. We will be in the spin room with Wyatt Sharp and Luke the bee's knees Beasley bringing you all sorts of live coverage tonight. I will also have immediate reaction around 10:30 p.m. eastern time to the debate. But the real question that we are faced with as Americans and global citizens is, will this debate make any difference at all? All. I will discuss that question, but I think first it would be useful to say, well, in order to measure whether it makes a difference, we have to understand where we are right now and set sort of a line in the sand from which we can evaluate whether the debate made a difference. And we're going to look at two different things.

We will look at the average of polling, and we will also look at the 538 2024 presidential election projection and say, here's where we are right now, June 27. Where will we be a month from now and see whether things have changed. So as far as the polling averages as of this moment, if you look at an average of recent polls, national polls, Trump versus Biden, it is Trump plus 1.5.

Now, does this really reflect what is likely to take place in November? I don't know.

The real clear politics average says Trump 46.6 and Biden 45.1. Some very simple arithmetic shows us that if you add those numbers together, it is roughly 92% of the vote, meaning 8% of the vote is elsewhere in these polls. I do not believe that 8% of the electorate is going to vote for someone else. I think it's going to be less when we actually get to election day, but at least as far as saying, okay, it's a debate day, it's Trump plus 1.5.

Remember that number? Because then in a week, in two weeks, in three weeks, we can look at if and how that number changes. Now, I do think it's important to mention that in multi way polling that includes Robert F. Kennedy, junior, Cornel west, and Jill Stein, Trump's lead is bigger. It's 2.66. And that really is driven by west and Stein. What you may notice is that in these multi way polls, west and Stein together have 2.7 percentage points, and Robert F. Kennedy is right around seven. Trump does better when you include the third party candidates, but at least to draw a starting point for comparison, in head to head polls, Trump v. Biden, it is Trump plus 1.5 as of today.

Secondly, we will look at the 538 forecast. And the 538 forecast, really going out on a limb has it 50 50. It's bounced between 52 48 one way and 5248 the other way. They are really going out on a limb, and they say that it is a. When they run 100 simulations with current polling inputs, Biden comes out the presidential winner in 50 of 100 scenarios, and Trump comes out the winner in 50 of 100 scenarios. So fine. Again, we are just saying, where are we starting? It is debate day, and the FiveThirtyEight forecast says that it is 50 50. We'll see where we are when in a week. We'll see where we are in two weeks. So this now gets us to what could happen at tonight's debate.

Tonight's debate represents an asymmetrical risk. And I don't mean that it's an asymmetrical risk in that it is riskier for Trump than Biden in general. What I do mean is that the downside risk to both candidates, if they go cognitively short circuiting, is much more significant than how much they could help themselves with an acceptable performance. And if you think about it a little more deeply, what I mean by that is imagine that the debates go roughly like the 2020 debates, where, depending on who you ask, there are people who say Biden won those. There are people who say Trump won them. If you look at polling, it seems it's generally considered that in the first couple debates, I think, if I recall correctly, Biden did a little better. But in the third debate, during which we recently had a psychiatrist say Trump seemed to be on stimulants, Trump did a little better. The debates in 2020 were mostly awash in that both candidates showed up, neither had any kind of big cognitive failure or glitch, and the election just kind of continued rolling along. Similarly, in this election cycle, these debates are increasingly a referendum on cognitive decline.

Cognitive decline concerns about both candidates with different levels of honesty, with different levels of degree. Increasingly, the mental health professionals seem to say the Biden concerns actually seem to be not based in fact, whereas the Trump concerns are based in fact. But forget about it. Whatever you believe about cognitive decline, tonight's debate is functionally a referendum on does either candidate really fall apart, speak in ways that make no sense, seem to lose their connection to reality? Does Biden, as they say, fall off the stage, or not, he's unable to stand 90 minutes or whatever they're saying. Does Trump go off and say things.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
Like, Saudi Arabia and Russia will reap.

David Pakman
Beat, dude, you know, this sort of thing. And so the point I'm trying to make here is that if they do fine, I don't think it changes the race very much. If one of them really has a cognitive failure, it has the potential to completely destroy their chances. Now, the caveat, I would add, and you probably know where I'm going, is that we do have to ask, even if Trump completely short circuits cognitively, is that really going to change the minds of MAGA voters who seem committed to Trump in a cult like fashion? I think it's a fair question. And it is absolutely the case that even with whatever could be the worst episode of cognitive decline that Trump could have, a lot of his supporters would not change their minds. I do believe that if Trump suffered a total cognitive failure, it would impact enough of his supporters that he probably loses this race. And by the way, I think it's the same thing with Biden. If Biden's performance tonight is so concerning when it comes to his brain, um, that it is impossible not to notice, I do think that it absolutely destroys his chances. So as of today, real clear politics. Average Trump plus 1.5 538 forecast 50 50 we will measure where we are going forward. One of the features, or bugs, depending on your perspective of tonight's debate that has been made much of, is that when the candidates are not speaking, when it is not their turn to speak, their microphone will be muted. CNN did a little explainer of this, and I'm going to play it for you.

And then we will discuss whether I believe this is actually the powerful guardrail to Trump interrupting that some are hoping, and CNN is making it out to be. Let's take a listen.

Phil Mattingly
If we go behind the podiums, you can see two green lights. When they're on, they signal to the candidate his microphone is on. When the green lights are off, they signal to the candidate his microphone is off.

David Pakman
Can you explain that again? What does light on mean?

Phil Mattingly
Now, I want to give you a sense of what it will look like for viewers at home if a candidate whose microphone is off interrupts a candidate whose microphone is on. So I'm standing at one podium, and I'll ask Phil to come in and take the other podium. And so let's say I'm answering a question. My light is green and I'm speaking. Phil's microphone is off, and his green lights are not illuminated. He's going to interrupt me as I'm speaking. And this is what it will sound like. My volume remains constant while Phil's interruption can be difficult to understand.

Victor Blackwell
Now let's try the opposite. My microphone is now on. Victor's microphone is off and he's going to interrupt me. My volume remains constant while Victor's interruption can be difficult to understand.

We should note by agreeing to participate in this debate, both campaigns and, and candidates have also agreed to abide by these rules. The CNN presidential debate airs live at 09:00 p.m. eastern.

David Pakman
All right, so I think we all get a sense of exactly how that's going to work. Now, there's a couple different issues here. Number one is CNN cannot mute Trump's face. And this is not me insulting Trump's appearance. What I mean is presumably he will be on camera while interrupting or attempting to interrupt. And that could be just as distracting as actually hearing Trump's voice in full volume. And the other thing is, with them standing, what looks to be, I guess, about 8ft away is maybe what I would say. I'm looking at the two lecterns and maybe about 8ft away with them standing 8ft away.

The sounds of Phil Mattingly speaking when Victor Blackwell's mic was on were very faint and, and vice versa, but they were also speaking pretty quietly. And my guess is that if Trump leans 1ft closer to Biden's lectern and speaks a little louder, when you understand that volume decrease. Hold on, I'm going back to wave theory physics class. Volume decays at the square of the distance between the. Okay. Anyway, the point is, if it's 8ft, if you get a little closer and you speak a little louder, Biden's microphone is still going to pick it up much more than, than what we just heard. And I think Trump is probably likely to know that. Now, in the debates in 2020, were there two or three debates. Now, I'm forgetting where maybe what I said earlier was wrong and there were only two Trump. From the fact check, I looked at interrupted Joe Biden's answers over 150 times in 2020. So I would go in, if I am Biden, expecting that to be the case here. And maybe having, let me put it this way, if I were Biden, I would have a strategy that assumes the mic muting will not be nearly as effective as it is being made out to be, and hopefully it will. But if it's not, have some way to try to take control back. That doesn't let Trump walk all over Biden. I don't know exactly what that would be. It may be pointing to the fact that Trump is interrupting because he's terrified.

You know, I don't know it would be for the Biden team to come up with, but I would definitely try to come up with some kind of way to counteract Trump's interruptions, even if, even if the plan that CNN has is likely to be effective just as a backup plan. So once again, I I will be live at 07:30 p.m. eastern time, 04:30 p.m. pacific on YouTube, Twitch and Facebook. It will be a live pre show. We will be in the spin room in Atlanta with Luke the bees, knees Beasley and Wyatt Wonder Boy Sharp, and I hope you'll join me. And I will have immediate analysis following the debate as well. So let's take the quickest of quick breaks, hear from a sponsor or two, and then we'll be right back in today's insane media landscape. To stay informed and prepare for the show, I turn to trustworthy publications of record like the Washington Post. No one can beat the Washington Post track record of investigative journalism and speaking truth to power. And now the Washington Post is a sponsor of the David Pakman show. Did you know? The Post offers a cool feature for audio lovers like you. You can actually listen to articles in addition to reading them, so you can tackle your to do list and catch up on the news at the same time. And if you thought the Washington Post only covered politics, think again. You name it, they cover it. Climate and culture, crosswords and cooking. The Washington Post helps you discover a world of surprising stories, important insights and actionable advice. It's important to me that this show only be sponsored by a reputable news organization like the Washington Post, and my audience needs to stay informed.

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I'm sort of joking and honestly, it's just kind of all getting really desperate and sad, and I'm going to address that in a moment. But Robert F. Kennedy junior announced that he will be holding his own debate by himself, where he will answer the questions asked to Trump and Biden as if he were on the stage. So you can decide for yourselves whether that is compelling to you, particularly given that he has no path to winning even a single state and doesn't have enough ballot access to even become president.

You can decide. Here is Robert F. Kennedy Junior explaining what he plans to do.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
Robert F. Kennedy junior here, over 70% of Americans want a different choice than President Obama or Trump. They're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. President Trump and Biden colluded with CNN to block me from representing your voices, but I'm not going to let them silence us. Go to the realdebate.com to watch me answer the same debate questions live. I'm going to be on that debate stage with or without their permission.

David Pakman
I'm Robert F. Kennedy Junior, and I approve this message. So Robert F. Kennedy, I don't fault Bobby Kennedy junior for doing anything he can think of to maintain the appearance of viability in this race.

It's just starting to feel desperate and sad because he has no path to victory. He's not on the debate stage. He's not on enough ballots. Even if he won every state he's on the ballot, he would not get 270 electoral votes to become president.

And he doesn't have a path to winning even a single state. When his vice, when his VP running mate was asked the other day by Alex Michaelson, what's your, which states do you think you can win? What's your path here to victory? She said, well, we have a five inch binder, but I'm not going to give away our strategy. And of course, it's kind of weird because it's not a secret that your strategy has to include winning some states, and there's not a single state that they can conceivably win. One of Robert F. Kennedy's aides went on tv maybe about six weeks ago, two months ago, and said that their path to 70 includes California. You know, Biden's winning, winning California by 30 percentage points or more, even in a three way race. Like, it's, it's crazy. So it's starting to take on a little bit of a desperate and delusional aspect to it, which saddens me. I do think that at this point, unfortunately for the country, the biggest impact that Robert F. Kennedy junior could have is handing the election to Donald Trump by taking more votes from Biden than he does from Trump. Now, I'm not saying I think that's what will happen. I'm saying from the perspective where I think Trump is the worst possible outcome here, if you believe Trump is the worst possible outcome, the most significant impact Bobby Kennedy could have is making Trump president.

The ideal scenario would be he has no impact whatsoever. And Joe Biden is reelected, and we kind of avoid this project 2025 agenda 47 nightmare. So there is an option tonight, if you don't want to. And how you would watch both of these at the same time, I don't know. If you want an alternative to watching the actual debate, you can watch Robert F. Kennedy junior debate by himself. Uh, I I'm going to be watching the actual debate and reacting to it. And then maybe later or tomorrow, if there's, you know, an opportunity, I will check out whether Bobby had any interesting answers. The final stage of the Biden will be on drugs arc is taking place right now. We've been covering this since March, what the State of the union, I think was around March 7 or 8th, something like that.

Since Joe Biden gave a completely reasonable State of the Union address, MAGA has increasingly been claiming that Biden is on some kind of performance enhancing drugs. They struggle to tell us what drugs those are. They struggle to acknowledge that it is actually Trump who has appeared to be on stimulants at different times in his life and during his political career. But they're insisting, and they've been ramping it up more and more as tonight's debate approaches. And here is sort of the. A cherry on top of this. Speaker Mike Johnson, Maga Mike Johnson once again suggesting Joe Biden will be hopped up on energy drinks. And the funny thing about where this is ending is, as they have failed to convincingly make the case of any actual pharmaceutical that Joe Biden is taking, they've kind of stepped back towards its caffeine, energy drinks and sodas with caffeine like Mountain Dew, which feels very weak, if that's the best they can do, because Trump is known to have a dozen diet cokes a day, which are loaded with caffeine. So it's all become quite flaccid by the end of it.

Mike Johnson
Like many, I look forward to hearing Donald Trump lay out his vision for the country. It's a positive vision.

David Pakman
It's a, he has no vision.

Mike Johnson
It's a forward vision. He is excited. I talked to him, spent a lot of time with him last week down in Mar a Lago and then on the phone over the weekend. And he's in a very good place. And I expect that you're going to see a sharp contrast between President Trump's positive agenda and Joe Biden's proven weakness. And I've did a lot of media over the last several days, and everybody wants to know which Joe Biden's going to show up. Look, my summary is this. It doesn't matter if he drinks a whole gallon of energy drinks, he's not going to be able to match the acumen and the readiness of Donald Trump. And that's what we expect.

David Pakman
Speaker one yeah, that's quite a delusional expectation for megamike Johnson. But listen, let's, anything is possible, either one of them, we might get to final proof of homo sapiens being capable of spontaneous combustion. Tonight. We might finally see either Trump or Biden just explode in a physical and literal sense on the stage. Anything could happen.

I don't think that Trump is going to show up and wow the country with his positive vision and agenda for America because such a vision doesn't exist. Michael Cohen, Donald Trump's own former attorney, put out a good tweet where he said, quote, it's hilarious to watch Republicans who spent weeks depicting Biden as old and enfeebled suddenly realize that they've foolishly lowered expectations for the debate and with days to go, desperately pivot to he'll do great because he's on something. Yeah. And this is a case we've made.

The lowering of the bar has backfired so severely on them now for four years running that they've switched to, it'll be good, he'll be good, but only because of drugs, which are maybe only caffeine, which Trump is regularly hopped up on himself. Now, one other thing I do want to say about MAGA, Mike Johnson and others who, they don't use the same language as the more extreme MAGA people, but they still end up giving the same message like, yes, Biden will be on something. There's a really interesting development to think about here. A lot of the MAGA world, people who understand, I will sound insane if I actually talk about Biden being on Provigil. So instead, I'll talk about energy drinks. They have done something that's quite interesting. They've developed, like, sanitized versions of the Trump world conspiracy theories because what they want to do is appeal to the base and not appear disloyal to Trump.

MAGA World has gone fully in on Biden's on drugs, so MAga Mike Johnson has to figure out some way to thread the needle. I need a sanitized version of this conspiracy theory, but I don't want to sound like a total nut job. And so the way I'll do it is I'll refer to energy drinks or they'll talk about caffeine or they'll talk about Mountain Dew. And it's just a slightly less obviously insane seeming conspiracy theory that attempts to both please Trump because you're on message, but also not sound as outwardly insane. Will it work? I don't know. We'll have to wait and see. Tonight, the Republicans are starting to slowly fall and straight up say, I'm voting Biden in November. We've wondered with people like Mitt Romney, who has made it clear I'm not voting for Trump, but has not said I'm voting for Biden. We've wondered, will he vote Biden privately? He votes in Utah. Won't make a difference. Biden's not going to win Utah. But maybe more importantly, will Romney publicly say, for the good of the country, for the good of democracy, we as Republicans should vote for Joe Biden? In this particular case? I don't know if Romney will ever say that, but we have a growing list of Republicans that are saying, I am voting for Biden. Adam Kinzinger, republican congressman who has been a known anti Trump voice for a long time now, now is officially endorsing Democrat Joe Biden, not because Joe Biden's conservative. And I'll get to that talking point in a moment, but because he believes it is what is better for the country, even if it's not what's best for his own party.

Victor Blackwell
I'm Adam Kinzinger, and I'm a proud conservative. I always have been. As a proud conservative, I've always put democracy and our constitution above all else. And it's because of my unwavering support for democracy that today, as a proud conservative, im endorsing Joe Biden for re election. My entire life has been guided by the conviction that America is a beacon of freedom, liberty, and democracy. So while I certainly dont agree with President Biden on everything, and I never thought id be endorsing a democrat for president, I know that he will always protect the very thing that makes America the best country in the our democracy. Donald Trump poses a direct threat to every fundamental american value. He doesn't care about our country. He doesn't care about you. He only cares about himself. And he'll hurt anyone or anything in pursuit of power. We saw that when he tried to overturn an election that he knew he lost. In 2020, he attacked the foundation of this nation, encouraging a violent mob of his supporters to march on the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transition of power. Now he's become even more dangerous. He's called for termination of the constitution. He wants to be a dictator. On day one, he actually said that. And hes continuing to stoke the flames of political violence. Theres too much at stake to sit on the sidelines. So to every American of every political party and those of none, I say now is not the time to watch quietly as Donald Trump threatens the future of America.

Nows the time to unite behind Joe Biden and show Donald Trump off the stage once and for all.

David Pakman
6 million views of that video on Adam Kinzinger's Twitter account and many, many millions more as it has been reported on. And this is not as some, you know, there's always these kind of revolutionary leftists who hear this and they go, of course, Kinzinger supporting Biden because Biden is the conservative we've been saying he is.

I challenge you to find any president whose actual accomplishments have been more progressive than Joe Biden's in a single term. I don't think you could find that. I believe Adam Kinzinger. I take him at his word. It's not because Kinzinger is conservative and Biden is secretly conservative or not so secretly conservative and that's why he's supporting him. It's because Kinzinger realizes that in order to get back to a republican party that actually espouses and argues for truly conservative values, which I disagree with, but which are truly conservative rather than reactionary and extreme, they need to support and preserve democracy, and Trump wouldn't do that. Here is Kinzinger in Atlanta yesterday ahead of the debate.

Victor Blackwell
If you'd have told me, Adam Kinzinger of three years ago, that you're gonna be endorsing a Democrat for president in three years, I probably wouldn't have believed you. I would have been like, what? This has got to be a different Adam Kinzinger. That can't be me.

But I gotta tell you, the stakes of this moment are way too high. As you all know, I officially endorsed President Biden today. And it's very simple. Why? So if I look at two things, number one, who's gonna fight for people.

David Pakman
All right, so we don't have. Now he gives his whole rest of the speech, which you already heard in his video. We don't have to go through all of it. But there is Kinzinger and also one other interesting little note, a Georgia Republican, Brian Kemp, admitting to Caitlin Collins on CNN he didn't vote for Trump in the Georgia primary. An interesting exchange that got a little awkward. Speaking of the Georgia primary, who did.

Brian Kemp
You vote for in the Georgia primary?

I didn't vote for anybody. I voted, but I didn't vote for anybody. I mean, the race was already over when the primary got here.

Victor Blackwell
But you didn't vote for Donald Trump?

Brian Kemp
I didn't vote for anybody.

David Pakman
Why not?

Brian Kemp
Because the race is over with.

David Pakman
Wow. That's pretty interesting.

Brian Kemp
Yeah. Well, I mean, I wanted to go vote. I always try to go vote and, you know, play a part in it. But look, at that point, it didn't really matter. I've said for a long time, as you know, I'm going to support the ticket. That's what I'm doing now. And we have a lot of races on the ballot here in Georgia, not just the presidential race. You know, we got a lot of my friends and partners in the general assembly, and I'm focused on holding our majorities and making sure we turn out the vote for the whole ticket all the way to the top.

Victor Blackwell
But there were a lot of other.

David Pakman
Republicans who came out and voted in.

Victor Blackwell
That primary and voted for Donald Trump.

David Pakman
So I think it would be pretty.

Victor Blackwell
Interesting for them to hear, you know.

David Pakman
Why you didn't feel the need to vote for him or didn't want to.

Brian Kemp
Well, it would be for me personally, politically. I mean, it'd be interesting if I had a vote for him, be interested if I didn't, or be interested if I didn't vote at all. But at the bottom of the line, it didn't really matter. I mean, he was a presumptive nominee before the primary ever got here.

David Pakman
All right, so Governor Kemp, while he is making it clear at the end of the day, he will support the republican ticket in Georgia, sort of getting agitated by being asked, why wouldn't you go out and actually vote for this guy? And he said, well, it didn't really matter because he was the presumptive nominee. And Kemp kind of weirdly opting not to weigh in. So less interesting to hear what Kemp is saying than Kinzinger, but this is becoming a very interesting election within the Republican Party, something we will certainly continue to cover between now and November let's take a very quick break. We have a lot more coming up on the program today. Glad you're here.

Let's say you want to figure out if Trump did use a nazi slogan in a campaign video or if it's just a misunderstanding. Ground News is an app and website that gathers news stories from across the world and political spectrum so you can decide for yourself. It's a great tool. I'm happy to be partnering with them for this video. Yes, Trump did in fact use a nazi slogan in a campaign video he posted and then he deleted it. On ground news, I can access almost 200 articles covering the story and see that only 17% of those are right leaning. No surprise there. Comparing coverage is interesting. Some sources on the left references language comparing him to Hitler, while on the right RT highlights his explanation of the video, and Israel's are highlights that he deleted it. The ground news blind spots feature will highlight stories like this that are disproportionately covered by either political side, so you are guaranteed to see the full picture. Sign up through my link for 40% off their vantage subscription, which gives you access to all of their features. Go to Ground Dot news Pacman. The link is in the podcast notes so as most of you, I assume, already know, Donald Trump was convicted last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, and his sentence is going to be imposed on July 11 by Judge Juan Marshan. We will be covering that live today. I thought it would be useful and maybe interesting to explore what sentence Donald Trump is likely to get, including whether he will be a given time in prison.

We'll also explore what is the most likely scenario here. Now, in theory, each of the 34 counts that Donald Trump was convicted of has a maximum prison sentence of four years, meaning he could go, if you go no further in your analysis, could go to prison for 34 times four or 136 years. Not only is this obviously unlikely, as the judge would sentence him concurrently for these counts rather than consecutively, there's also a 20 year maximum consecutive sentence in New York for class e felonies. So forget about four times 36, forget about any number bigger than 20. Now, a 20 year sentence would effectively be a life sentence for a 78 year old like Trump. Actuarially speaking, he may live an incredibly long life, but statistically speaking, actuarially speaking, a 20 year sentence for a 78 year old would be a life sentence. But realistically, if Trump is incarcerated, he is likely looking at more like six months to two years. But the broader question is, will he be given any kind of prison sentence at all, and it really isn't a clear yes or no based on all of the facts that we have right now. ABC News interviewed 14 different lawyers about this. One of the best ways to get 15 different answers is to ask 14 different lawyers a question. Okay, that's a little, little saying I picked up. In working with lawyers over time, five of the 14 lawyers believed the sentence involving prison was likely. Seven of the 14 lawyers said a prison sentence was unlikely, and two said, it's really a toss up.

So let's explore some of the reasons why Judge Marshawn may not sentence to Trump to any prison time. And then we'll talk about why he might sentence Trump to prison, and then we'll talk about some of the other potential consequences that could be faced. So let's make the case that Trump will not be sent to prison and figure out whether we think that this is a strong case. First is precedent. Trump's case hinges on falsifying business records. It's a charge that historically results in prison sentences only in about one out of ten cases in the state of New York. Now, that's based on an extensive review of 10,000 past cases of falsifying business records. So the statistical backdrop of 10% prison time for falsifying business record convictions in New York suggests a leaning towards being more lenient, especially for first time offenders convicted of nonviolent crimes. And that gets us to item number two.

As crazy as it is to say, Trump is a first time offender, despite extensive legal battles, controversies, being found civilly liable for all sorts of different things.

The defamation case, the using his foundation or charities money as a slush fund and having it shut down. Despite Trump's habitual wrongdoing for decades, he has never been convicted of any criminal offenses prior to this case. And in New York, where sentencing guidelines often favor leniency for first time offenders, Trump's clean record, and I know it sounds crazy to say that Trump's clean record would be a mitigating factor against the judge imposing some kind of custodial sentence. So Trump is facing three other criminal trials. He is, of course, innocent in those until proven guilty. Notice how this is a law and order show. We don't go around saying lock up, whoever, because we don't like them if they have not actually been convicted, and a sentence of prison would, would be warranted. But you can't use the fact that Trump is being prosecuted in three other criminal cases in considering a harsher sentence for him here. So we have those two factors. Number three, Trump's advanced age. At 78, Trump's age is a practical and a moral consideration for the court. I've said before, even when they get these Nazis in their seventies, eighties, nineties, I have said, you don't not charge them and prosecute them because of their age. But like anybody else, judges can consider age in sentencing, and that is fine and expected. When it comes to Trump, imprisoning an elderly individual of any kind raises some ethical questions about the appropriateness and the effectiveness of custodial sentences, especially for nonviolent offenses like falsifying business records.

Trump's also not a flight risk. Now, I know it's crazy to say he has a plane. How is he not a flight risk? He could literally fly away. Well, yeah, okay. But we're building up the case here for not imprisoning Trump. And you can make the argument, and I think it's a fair argument, that as a former president, as a public figure, a Trump status minimizes the risk of flying and physically evading a sentence. He's trying, after all, to become president again, so it will be clear where he is much of the time. And then there are also some logistical challenges. The prospect of imprisoning a former president introduces some unprecedented logistical complexities. It's not an impossibility, but if you want to make the case that imprisoning Trump is not the right thing, you can say, listen. Trump's Secret Service protection alone poses some challenges for a correctional facility that's unaccustomed to managing people of such high prominence. So how do you ensure Trump's safety? Separation from the general prison population, compliance with security protocols. You need resources, you need coordination. You could use that as an argument to say he should not be imprisoned. Now, there's another argument, and we'll make it in a moment, but I'm building up the case for no jail time for Trump. There's also the possibility of the appearance of election interference, and appearance is the key word.

The timing of Trump sentencing months before the 2024 election, days before he would officially be made the nominee at the Republican National Convention, which we will be covering, could raise questions about a perceived political motivation. Any decision to imprison Trump could be interpreted as an attempt to influence public opinion or disrupt his political ambitions. He's saying that it is. He's been saying it all along, and it's conceivable that Judge Mershon might consider that in his decision. There's also the argument of a double standard, even if it can be argued that any other criminal would go to prison for these crimes. Trump may not, simply because he's a billionaire and a former president. Judge Mershon, when ruling on Trump's gag order violations, even said, the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president. And in fairness, Marshawn may reconsider that statement now that Trump has been convict convicted, and it's not just a gag order violation. And then lastly, there's a technicality.

Even if Trump gets a prison sentence, he would likely remain free pending appeal, meaning he is very unlikely to actually be imprisoned before the 2024 election, even if he is given a prison sentence. If he is elected president and can delay serving his sentence, there would be four more years of appeals and adjustments. And so that would be an argument for saying, let's not even open that door, ok, now, you might have heard that the argument for not imprisoning Trump and saying, David, that's a terrible argument. Those are terrible arguments. Those are very weak arguments. Well, let's now look at reasons why Trump should be sent to prison and why he might be. First is the seriousness of the case. This is the most serious case of falsifying business records in New York history because it arguably impacted the outcome of the 2016 election. While 90% of falsifying business record cases don't lead to incarceration in New York, as I mentioned earlier, you could make a very good case that as the most serious case of falsifying business records in New York history, this should be in the 10% that does warrant a prison sentence. And that is a very compelling argument. Number two, throughout the trial, Trump demonstrated not only a lack of remorse, he demonstrated defiance of court directives, he repeatedly violated gag orders, he attacked and assailed the judge and those associated with the court. And Trump's total lack of remorse and complete failure to acknowledge any wrongdoing is something that judges can legitimately consider in sentencing.

And that, if considered here, would say, listen, Trump continues to claim this is all rigged, that he did nothing wrong, he doesn't respect the court, he's learned nothing. That would be a good reason to say, well, I'm going to err on the side of making Trump part of the 10% that does get prison for falsifying business records. There's also the question of deterrence. It is clear that only prison time actually in a prison sent cell would be an actual punishment or deterrent for Trump. Fines, probation, that's not going to effectively do anything to Trump. So if Judge Mershon wants to hold Trump accountable in any real way, I think it can be argued the only real way is incarceration. There's also the possibility of exploring other possible penalties in addition to imprisonment. Judge Marshawn has other sentencing options at his disposal. You could see a suspended sentence that lets Trump avoid prison time on the condition that he doesn't commit further offenses complies with court conditions. That would be a way, maybe, to recognize what you did is grave enough to get a prison sentence, but we're going to have a structured framework to monitor you without immediately incarcerating you. That's a possibility.

House arrest could be an alternative to traditional incarceration. It would require Trump to stay within his residence, except for an approved activity that would limit his movement. It would limit his freedom, but it would certainly allow him to conduct necessary activities, including, I guess, his political campaign. The problem is, of course, if Trump becomes president, what happens with house arrest? Does the White House become his house and he can only be in the White House? I don't know. Community service is another possible penalty.

It would require Trump to engage in activities beneficial to the community, which is very much antithetical to the way Trump operates. He maybe would have to volunteer for some kind of charitable organization or a public project. Of course, Trump could potentially benefit from doing that. It could look like volunteering. It might actually help him get elected. It could help his favorability. And then, of course, there's the possibility of financial fines. Just as Trump could, in theory, be imprisoned for four years for each felony count, he could be fined five grand for each count, that'd be $170,000. That's chump change to Trump if we believe he is a billionaire at all, never mind a turbo billionaire or a multi billionaire, as he claims to be. So a fine of $170,000 is essentially no punishment at all. I don't think it's the direction the judge will go in. And you could also have probation. Probation means regularly reporting to a probation officer, adhering to certain conditions set by the court. Could be travel restrictions, could be, you have to be in certain rehabilitation programs, compliance with a curfew. The logistics of all of that becomes very complicated if Trump becomes president. So I've now laid it all out for you, and I'm going to tell you what I believe Trump is ultimately going to receive. I think the most likely outcome here, if I were a betting man, which I'm not, my sense is Trump does get some kind of prison sentence, but it is suspended, suspending a sentence means you're sentenced, but the imposition of the sentence, the execution of the sentence is delayed.

This would allow the judge and maybe prosecutors to say he was found guilty and he was given a prison sentence.

They don't have to deal with the logistics of actually imprisoning him. They don't have to deal with whatever it is they maybe fear would happen if they actually have to go through with imprisoning Trump, but they can say he got a prison sentence. Now, the complexity of this is that if Trump is convicted in other trials, how does it impact a suspended sentence?

Depending on how, and this is a legal question that I just did not get a clear answer to today, depending on how the suspend suspended sentence rules are written and imposed in New York, Trump has already been charged with other crimes.

If he is convicted, would that trigger the sentence to be unsuspended in this case? Orlando, is it about not committing further crimes in the future only? And since the alleged crimes in the other three trials that Trump could be convicted of are in the past, it would not serve as a trigger in a suspended sentence to go and imprison Donald Trump. I don't know the answer to that, and maybe it's an answer that we will get. So let me know what you think. What do you think is the most likely outcome here? What do you believe is the deserved outcome here? And remember that if your primary concern is not whether Trump is in prison, but making sure that he's not president, and part of that is project 2025 and what that would mean for the country and the world. Remember that we've launched this free white paper. 4000 people downloaded it in the first 36 hours. You can get the white paper completely free. I'm selling you nothing other than a good time. Get the white paper at david pakman.com project 2025 and let me know what you think Trump's sentence should be by emailing me at info at david pakman.com dot speaker one. I've had such trouble finding a great razor where I am not cutting myself or getting those nicks on my skin, which are so common with the cheap disposable razors. You have to meet our sponsor, Henson shaving. Henson actually manufactures parts for the International Space Station and the Mars rover, and they are bringing that exact same precision engineering to the shaving experience.

It hurts when you shave because blades extend too far and thus they wobble slightly. But with their aerospace grade CNC machines, Henson is able to make metal razors that extend just 0.0013 inches. That's less than the thickness of a human hair, which means a secure, stable blade with a vibration free shave. It also has built in channels to evacuate the hair and the cream. No more clogs, no more rubbing your thumb on the razor to get the hair out. I use Henson at home. Shaving is a great experience. Now Henson wants to be the best razor, not the best razor business, which means you only need to buy it once and it's awesome. Go to henson shaving.com pacman. Add a razor and a hundred pack of blades to your cart. Then enter the code Pacman to get the hundred blades for free. That is a three year supply. That's Henson shaving.com pacman. Use code Pacman. The link is in the podcast notes I'm going to warn you, if there are kids in the room and you tried to protect them from cringe and creepiness, this may not be the segment for them. I'm giving you fair warning. Rameen Satude's audio recordings of his conversations with the convicted felon failed former President Donald Trump continue to be released, and it's only getting worse and worse. This is one of the creepiest videos that I've, or audio, I guess I would say, that I've heard in a while.

The conversations between Rameen Satude and Donald Trump in their extensive interviews were wide ranging, and they also included a pop culture. And Donald Trump was asked about Taylor Swift. And of course, Taylor Swift, aside from being a musical artist, also has been weighing in politically to some degree over time and endorsing Biden in 2020 and making it clear that her perspective is one of welcoming people rather than repelling and so on and so forth. Anyway, so Rameen Satude asks Trump about Taylor Swift, and there's two stories here. There's the creepiness with which Trump focuses on Taylor Swift's appearance, and also there is the repetition of the same phrases.

That is another one of the cognitive sort of ticking time bombs that mental health professionals have identified with Trump. So let's take a listen to this.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
What do you think about Taylor Swift?

David Pakman
One of the most famous people right now?

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
Yeah, I think she's beautiful. Very beautiful. I find her very beautiful.

I think she's liberal.

She probably doesn't like Trump, but I hear she's very talented.

But I think she's very.

I think she's a very beautiful, actually unusually beautiful.

David Pakman
Is it just me, or is it way creepier to actually hear Trump say it than if someone just mentions to you in 15 seconds, he says that she's beautiful. 1234 for five times.

I. I don't know. Now, there's two stories here.

One reaction I read to this is, this is so creepy. This is just. It. It just oozes creepiness from Trump. The other story is, this is one of those cognitive concerns that Doctor John Gartner and Doctor Harry Siegel and Doctor Liz and Doctor Cruz that they all talk to us about, which is Trump's vocabulary has become extraordinarily limited. And he repeats the same parenthetical phrases over and over again in a short span of time because there's something going on with his brain. I don't know which of the two it is, but it's certainly creepy regardless. Maybe it's creepy cognitive decline. I don't know.

Kim Kardashian also came up as a topic.

This is not a show on which the name Kim Kardashian is common, but there is an interesting connection. Trump said he was disappointed in Kim, in Kim Kardashian. And the reason why he was disappointed is very interesting. And it goes directly to Trump's definition of loyalty as he sees it.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
I was disappointed in Kim. With Kim, I did a lot of prison reform that she couldn't get done with anybody else. I let people out of prison that I thought were deserving to be let out. And then after it was all over, she announced that she's not supporting me, she said, and she only did that to be cool in Hollywood.

David Pakman
Yeah. So this is Trump's. Wait a second. I did you a favor, and you're not unflinchingly loyal to me, including talking about how great I am and how you're voting for me and how everyone should vote for me. This is why, if we go back to my commentary from yesterday about who Trump is likely to pick for his vp, Trump wants a doormat. And I can't say I'm a fan of Kim Kardashian.

What I mean by that is I have no problem with her, but I don't even really know what she's famous for. Like, she's kind of famous for being famous. So it's hard for me to be a fan of what? So I can't say I'm a fan of Kim Kardashians. But to the extent that I understand her lobbying Trump, when it comes to criminal justice reform, that was a specific issue that became important to her. For whatever reason, she lobbied whoever was the president at the time. It happened to be Trump. Trump did some of the things that she wanted. And Trump's expectation is, oh, now you're supposed to be part of the cult. You're supposed to vote for me. I'm supposed to. What do you mean you didn't vote for me? So Trump's disappointment goes to what he expects from people that he does what he considers to be favors. For a very interesting insight into the psyche of Trump vis a vis how we might think about his choice for vice president. A Byron Donalds is a republican congressman who is increasingly, as a black man himself, wanting to push the notion that black voters are abandoning Joe Biden, abandoning the Democratic Party, and increasingly supportive of Donald Trump. So an event was set up, and to call it an event is extremely charitable. The. The term event is doing some heavy lifting here. An event was set up where Byron Donald's went to a black barbershop, and this was going to be an event with Trump, a roundtable with Trump, but Trump didn't go. Trump called in and was on speakerphone with Byron Donald.

This is how important this was, uh, to Donald Trump. And this is.

Talk about creepy, cringe worthy moments.

Trump again thinks to tell the group of black people in the barbershop that the black community is really loving the fact that Trump was arrested and got a mug shot. And it's sort of become like, it's one of these things where, like, you're the racist. If you see racism in that. Give me a break, guys. Here's the way it usually goes. Someone like me says, why is it that Trump continues to tell black audiences how much they love the fact that he got arrested and got a mug shot? That seems like Trump is playing on some stereotypical stereotypes and tropes about black folks as committing crime. And then the MAGA people will come in and they go, no, David, that's wrong. You're the racist for thinking that. What Trump means is that he was treated really unfairly by the justice system, just like black folks have been treated really unfairly by the justice system. Okay, well, either interpretation is plausible, but there's something weird about the fact that Trump brings this up every time he speaks to what he perceives to be a black audience. Remember, in the black church, it was mostly a white audience, but here we actually have a group of Byron Donald's and five, I guess it's maybe, maybe six black men. And here is Trump bragging about his mugshot and how much the black and hispanic community just love it.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
But since this has happened, like, the mug shot, the mug shot is the best. It just beat Elvis Presley and Frank Sinatra by a lot, by the way. Beat him by a lot. But that's the number one mug shot of all time.

It's really an amazing thing. And since it happened, the support among the black community and the hispanic community has skyrocketed. It's been amazing. Really been amazing. It's been actually very nice to see Mister president. You know, it's in one way. In one way you said, gee, isn't that too bad? But the truth is, it's really a lovely thing when I see that we have great support now.

David Pakman
Yep. Thanks to Trump being arrested. Black folks just love Trump. Now, the moment where Trump first called in and Byron Donald puts him on speakerphone. Everything about this event and I still, it feels weird, I guess everything about this photo op feels so disingenuous. I was just going to pump that.

Victor Blackwell
To doctor Carson, administration. Hello, Mister President, how you doing?

Well, I'm going to put you on speaker, but actually a great question just came up. We're talking about regulations and some of the things that can be done to alleviate the regulation burdens on a lot of businesses. But I'm going to put you on speakerphone for everybody to hear. Hold on a second.

David Pakman
Yep.

Victor Blackwell
All right, everybody, you're on with the president.

Mike Johnson
Hello, Mister President.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
Mister President. Hello, everybody. It's great to be with you. I hope I'm being well represented. I have a feeling I am. I know them very well, so I hope so.

Victor Blackwell
No, you are, sir speaker one.

David Pakman
So as, as you can see, the crowd at the barbershop is not exactly finding this phone call from Trump super compelling. At another point during this conference call, basically a low rent Zoom, a Zoom meeting without video, Trump bragged about cutting taxes for the very rich and for corporations, which also didn't really seem to fire up the crowd.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
Well, as you know, I cut taxes and regulations more than any other president. We had the biggest tax cut and bigger even than the Reagan tax cuts. And I also cut regulations far more than any other president.

And they put. They have put a lot of them back already. We will get them cut so fast.

Brian Kemp
There you go.

David Pakman
So regulations and tax cuts did not really titillate this crowd, but a really strange event. And we are hoping to set up a panel very soon to discuss the question, are black voters turning to Trump? We interviewed Adrienne Shropshire some time ago. She says it doesn't really seem to be backed by the data. We may have a discussion about this on the show with, with some conflicting views coming up very soon. We have a voicemail number. That number is 2192 David P. One. The troll man. As he is known to callers called in and he is really confused about Lauren Boebert's primary win.

I'm going to play this voicemail for you and see if you can spot the confusion that Juan is experiencing here.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior
Lauren Boebert's win reflects the failure of the left either in their propaganda or their policy proposals and it also reflects on the voter base.

I wouldn't.

David Pakman
All right, so I'm actually going to, this goes on for two minutes. I'm not going to subject you to it because Juan is just wrong a bit. Lauren Boebert won a republican primary.

So it is not a reflection of the left because it was just Republicans arguing with each other for who should be the republican nominee, the actual elections in November. So it has nothing to do with failures of the left that Lauren Boebert won a republican primary in a red district. She was only going against other Republicans and there were six of them and she had the most name recognition. So the other five just split the vote. So it's not a failure of the left. And in addition, he's saying it's a reflection of the voter base. The voter base is republican. So it hasn't, you know, he's like, it reflects the left wing voter base. No, it doesn't. It was a republican primary. Now, I have to tell you, Juan, to, we've hopefully sorted out your confusion, but this is a very red district. As I understand it.

She moved from the district without, you know, where. Adam Frisch did really well against her. She moved to a different district.

It's a very red district. So from my understanding, unless I've been misinformed, she's easily going to win, not because of any failure of the left. It's just a district that's filled with Republicans. So a misunderstanding. Lauren Boebert's stiff win, but you've got to hand it to her. She was able to beat back or beat off, as some say, some pretty hard competition. So there were five people running against her. She was able to very, very firmly take control, we could say, of that race. We have a fantastic bonus show for you today. A Trump backed Senate candidate has lost his bid for Mitt Romney Senate seat. And I want to talk more about the dynamics happening within the republican party, specifically in Utah.

Congresswoman Luna is forcing a vote on an obscure maneuver to try to get Merrick Garland detained. It's cuckoo for cocoa puffs. And lastly, networks are very annoyed by CNN's debate rules for tonight's debate. I'm annoyed by them as well. We will discuss it and more. Get access to the bonus show, as well as all of the other member benefits by becoming a member at join pacman.com and remember that the free guide to Project 2025 will what is it? The risks and how to stop it. The free guide is available for free. Did I mention it's free@davidpackman.com?

project 2025 I'll see you on the bonus show and at 07:30 p.m. eastern time tonight, live on YouTube, Twitch and Facebook for the Trump Biden debate.

6/27/24: Trump/Biden debate TONIGHT, RFK will debate himself

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2: RFK Jr.'s Solo Debate

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