Recession Obsession: Inside the Stock Sell-Off

This episode delves into the recent global stock market downturn and its implications, analyzing whether it signals a looming recession.

1. Global markets experienced a significant sell-off, prompting fears of a recession.
2. Factors influencing the downturn include job market data, geopolitical tensions, and policy decisions by central banks.
3. Economic experts suggest a cautious approach, indicating that the markets are facing a reality check rather than a full-blown crisis.
4. Political and environmental issues concurrently affect public sentiment and economic stability.
5. The episode emphasizes the interconnectedness of global economies and the complexity of market dynamics.

1. Market Turmoil

Overview of the global stock sell-off beginning in Japan and spreading worldwide. Experts discuss underlying economic signs and investor reactions.

• Rebecca Jarvis: "What we saw on Monday is a free fall that started in Japan."
• Ryan Reynolds: "Is it everyone's worried about the American unemployment rate because that wouldn't explain stuff happening in Japan."

2. Economic Indicators

Analysis of U.S. economic data and its impact on market perceptions, including jobs reports and interest rates.

• Rebecca Jarvis: "You have the backdrop of the U.S. economy."
• Brittany Shepard: "This was definitely a weaker than expected jobs report."

3. Political and Environmental Context

Discussion on Hurricane Debbie's impact and Missouri's heated congressional primary impacting local and national sentiments.

• Ginger Z: "It's mostly Charleston and that South Carolina coast that I'm really worried about."
• Brittany Shepard: "They've called her statements insensitive, incorrect, and, quote, fanning the flames of anti-semitism."

1. Stay informed about market trends and economic indicators.
2. Diversify investments to mitigate risks associated with market volatility.
3. Monitor geopolitical developments that could impact financial markets.
4. Prepare for environmental contingencies that could affect economic stability.
5. Engage with financial news to understand the broader economic landscape.

A global stock plunge stokes fears of a wider recession. Debby lurches onshore as a hurricane, threatening the Southeast with massive floods. And Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo., becomes the latest member of the “Squad” to face deep-pocketed primary opposition.

People

Rebecca Jarvis, Ryan Reynolds, Ginger Z, Brittany Shepard

Companies

ABC News

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

None

Content Warnings:

None

Ryan Reynolds
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It's Tuesday, August 6. Was this a bad day for the markets or something worse? We start here.

A global sell off sparks fears of a recession.

Rebecca Jarvis
What we saw on Monday is a free fall that started in Japan.

Ryan Reynolds
There are other factors at play here. We'll walk you through it. The damage done by Debbie is just beginning.

Ginger Z
It's mostly Charleston and that South Carolina coast that I'm really worried about.

Ryan Reynolds
Ginger Z has been chasing the storm across the southeast, which is now bracing for more floods. And by the end of tonight, could the squad be down another member?

Brittany Shepard
They've called her statements insensitive, incorrect, and, quote, fanning the flames of anti semitism.

Ryan Reynolds
Missouri Democrat Cori Bush faces one of the most expensive challenges of the year.

From ABC News, this is start here. I'm Brad Milke.

For the last several years, finance experts have expressed worry about a potential recession. Remember what a recession is? It's where economic activity slows down over months or even years so that people can't afford as much, they start buying less. Businesses therefore take in less money. So they lay off workers. And then guess what? More families can't afford as much. It becomes this vicious cycle. Well, as the pandemic set in, we did get a sudden recession, but it became the shortest recession in american history as we passed those huge relief bills. But the worrying Washington wasn't over. As inflation started to grow and the Fed jacked up interest rates, there were new concerns about a vast economic slowdown. Somehow, though, some way, despite all the warnings, we've avoided that. Well, last Thursday, the stock market started to sink. No big deal. On Friday, though, it sank some more. Well, then, as the opening bell rang yesterday, the Dow and the S and P 500 absolutely plummeted. By the time the day was done, they had measured their worst day in two years. And the immediate word that came to people's lips was, wait for it, recession. But is that what we're actually seeing? Let's start the day with ABC's chief business and economics correspondent Rebecca Jarvis. Rebecca, can you walk me through what's been happening over the last few days?

Rebecca Jarvis
Well, Brad, I guess you could call it a kind of vibe shift on Wall street. And I say that mildly in jest. But as somebody who's now covered the markets for two decades, there is a mood that can set in. And what I have seen from talking to a handful of veteran traders on Wall street is that the mood has gone from pretty good to a little bit more sour to a little bit more concerned. That's happened for a couple of reasons. First of all, you have the backdrop of the us economy.

Brittany Shepard
This was definitely a weaker than expected jobs report. We did add jobs last month, 114,000, but we were expecting to add 185,000.

Rebecca Jarvis
When you look at the snapshot of the jobs market that we got on Friday, it shows that the unemployment rate is still very low, 4.3%, historically very low. But it's come up a lot since January, January when it was 3.7%.

Brittany Shepard
The pace of hiring has slowed down, and the number of people who are quitting their jobs has also been reduced greatly.

Rebecca Jarvis
You know, and we tend to see in healthy economies that joblessness doesn't grow that quickly. So there is this concern that you've got joblessness growing faster than economists want to see it. There have been data on layoffs that economists haven't loved. There's been data on manufacturing that hasn't looked great. Add to that the backdrop of the threat of war in the Middle east. Add to that the backdrop of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates last week at its most recent meeting. And the question of, well, are they too late? And so what we saw on Monday is a free fall that started in Japan overnight. The selling coming in was already very severe. The japanese market ended down 12%, which was the worst day since 1987. On black Monday. Then you had selling. The Dow was down right out of the gate, more than 1000 points. All 30 Dow stocks ended lower. And the S and P 500, which is the thing that's in most retirement savings accounts, most retirement accounts track that. That was down 3%. And then where the worst of it happened was in tech stocks, the high flyers, these companies that earlier this year seemed to defy gravity. Just as recently as July 10, the Nasdaq and tech stocks were at their all time highs. They got hit the hardest as well as a lot of the artificial intelligence linked companies.

Ryan Reynolds
Wait, so is it everyone's worried about the american unemployment rate because that wouldn't explain stuff happening in Japan. And it did seem to be like this global sell off, this global concern, right?

Rebecca Jarvis
There's kind of this perfect storm right now happening. Yes, there are questions about the us economy, but there are even bigger questions about where interest rates are, not just here in the US, but in places like Japan. Japan is interesting because for a long time, traders have been borrowing japanese yen at very low interest rates, converting them to dollars, and then using those dollars to buy us stocks, the beneficiaries of that, major tech companies. But now, just recently, the bank of Japan is raising its interest rates. So their currency, the japanese yen, has strengthened a lot against the dollar. And so traders are having to both cover and pay higher interest rates for their japanese yen that they borrowed. And they're also facing big losses on their japanese yen. In this chain reaction of events, they are selling us stocks like their, their.

Ryan Reynolds
Nifty little plan isn't so nifty anymore.

Rebecca Jarvis
Well, usually they don't last forever. What goes up comes down. And this is generally the market. A trade never works forever for the most part. And that was just one more piece of the puzzle. Warren Buffett, turns out he sold half of his stake. And Apple, again, Apple, a big tech company, one of the beneficiaries there as well. There is this sense that all the things that have happened over the last 18 months, two years, where stocks have just defied gravity, they keep going up. Well, that's just nothing going to happen forever. And that is what we saw in the markets on Monday. I will just add to that, though, Brad.

What I'm hearing from Wall street veterans is not panic. They, they are not panicked by this. In fact, they see this as sort of the reality that there's a lot up in the air right now, and that if the market were to just keep climbing with all of those things up in the air, then you'd have to ask yourself, why.

Ryan Reynolds
Oh, like, that's almost more worrisome, right?

Rebecca Jarvis
On what basis is the market continuing to go up?

Ryan Reynolds
So with all that in mind, especially because you and I always talk about how the stock market is not the economy. Right? Like, just because we're seeing big stock sell offs does not mean, like, that doesn't mean a recession. It just shows you that sometimes finance groups are worried about one.

Is the Fed still going to reduce these interest rates in the fall? Or, like, could they do them even more if we're worried about a recession? I mean, what's the plan now in terms of the.

Rebecca Jarvis
There's basically one, I would say, with 99% probability, certainty. And that is that there is an interest rate cut ahead.

Ryan Reynolds
The broad sense of the committee is.

Ginger Z
That the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be.

Ryan Reynolds
Appropriate to reduce our policy rate.

Rebecca Jarvis
Whether the interest rate cut will be a quarter percentage point or a half or even three quarters, as some are calling for, and whether or not it will be before the meeting in September, those are the sort of unknowns, but you can bet by the end of September, interest rates will be lower than they are today. If the data continues on the course that it's on, which is jobs are slowing down, manufacturing shows some softness, and inflation has come way, way down. Even though it might not be at the exact target that the Fed is looking for, it's come dramatically lower.

Ryan Reynolds
Really helpful stuff. All right, Rebecca Jarvis, thank you so much.

Rebecca Jarvis
Thank you. Take care, Brad.

Ryan Reynolds
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For the last several days, a storm called Debbie had been slowly making its way up into the Gulf of Mexico. Yesterday morning, Debbie made landfall in Florida as a category one hurricane.

As it lumbered on shore, it quickly went back down into the tropical cyclone range. But that hasn't stopped it from dumping tons of water throughout the american Southeast, which is why communities are scrambling for sandbags and flood safety equipment, anything to protect themselves against the fallout that could last days.

These risks appear to only be beginning. Let's go to ABC's chief meteorologist, Ginger Z. Who's made her way through Florida up to Georgia, now outside Savannah. Ginger, what are you seeing?

Ginger Z
And that's a tough story to tell, Brad, because people see a landfall and they want to be done with the storm because a lot of times when we have a hurricane, it moves in, it starts to dwindle, and then we kind of see it get picked up and moved out. That's not the case with Debbie, and that's why we're going to be talking about Debbie and the impacts of it, no matter what it ends up being. Even just remnants.

Ryan Reynolds
It's from the hurricane, from the storm itself.

We've had a lot of trees, power.

E
Lines down, over half the counties without.

Ginger Z
Power with the storm. At least one of the deaths was a young boy killed in a mobile home, a tree falling on that mobile home. And remember, the winds weren't that grand. But when you have a super saturated soil, these trees come down really easily. Even gusts over 40 mph can do it. So keep that in mind when you've got a lot of trees around you. Also, Governor DeSantis warning people the best way to stay away from danger is don't drive out in the storm.

Ryan Reynolds
We do think, though, that Floridians heeding the call of being careful, particularly on the roads, has reduced what would otherwise have been because there's been some nasty conditions out there. So please be very cautious when you're going out.

Ginger Z
The problem with a storm like this is we're not going to see much movement. It is going to move painstakingly slow, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. And so not just around Savannah because I think they actually get on the backside of this by Wednesday and Thursday. But it's mostly Charleston and that South Carolina coast that I'm really worried about going into the coming days because you have this combination of not just ten to 20 inches of widespread rain like that is a lot of rain but also locally up to 30 inches. And here's the biggest issue, is those fall in rivers and you can have inland flooding easily with this. But then as it tries to exit the normal waterways and tributaries and all the things, the rivers that take it to the ocean, it won't be able to because the storm is going to park itself just where it can counterclockwise, rotate the water of the ocean right up against and kind of plug those rivers and not allow any of it to come down. So that combo on top of the really heavy rain is going to make for an ugly, ugly thing for these susceptible cities that they're so low anyway. Right. They have problems with king tides, let alone if you've got this eerie combination together.

Ryan Reynolds
I see that's helpful because initially we heard like, yeah, it's in Florida, it's going to Georgia. You'd think, ok, the days that it's raining, those are the riskier days. It actually sounds like that continues. There's almost a delay built in.

Ginger Z
Yes. And as we know, you know, you have waterfall rainfall on a river. It takes time for it to get downriver. And if you're plugging up the end of it and you're still pushing water kind of inland, that's where we're going to come up with the major issues. And these rivers all the way inland have had problems through many different events and they have been supersaturated as well of late. So there's parts of the mid Atlantic that are very dry and they desperately need rain. They will get some all the way up to Virginia even. We'll be talking about parts of Debbie getting up there. But really the bulk of it's going to be kind of coastal South Carolina, Myrtle Beach, Charleston.

Ryan Reynolds
Okay. So, I mean, what should people in the region be prepared for? What should they do in the meantime?

Ginger Z
I guess I think the other hard part that I've noticed with a storm like this is because it takes days to unfold. People don't really get it.

They'll say, oh, I'm in a flash flood warning. We've had flash flood warnings all for the last three days, and they start to get a little bit numb to it. And that would be my concern, too.

People don't understand the easiest way to survive in this type of storm is if you have a flash flood warning, one of those things pops up on your phone, don't drive.

Ryan Reynolds
All right. Ginger Z there in Georgia right now, like she said, this story quickly becoming South Carolina. We'll talk to you later. Thank you so much.

Rebecca Jarvis
Thank you.

Ryan Reynolds
Today is a big day in politics, primarily because we know for a fact that Vice President Kamala Harris is planning on announcing a running mate pick by the end of the day. Her campaign has already announced she will be appearing with that person in Philly, but they also insist that's not because it's Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Could be anyone, they say. Don't read anything into that. It's just scheduling. But aside from all that, this is a big day because let's not forget, primaries are still happening. In fact, in Missouri, there is a primary for that state's first congressional district. That is the seat currently occupied by democratic congresswoman Corey Bush, one of the members of the progressive group known as the squad. The squad has already had one member picked off this year by well funded primary opponents. And now Bush is fighting for her political life. Let's bring in ABC's political reporter Brittany Shepard. Brittany, what should we know about this race?

Brittany Shepard
Oh, my gosh. Well, still a primary happening in this really slow newsweek, Brad. Like, I can't in this economy.

Ginger Z
Right?

Brittany Shepard
Thank you. But, yeah, I think all eyes will be on Missouri tonight. In one corner, we have Corey Bush, the state's first black congresswoman.

E
I love your congresswoman loves you. And this is only the beginning.

Brittany Shepard
In the other corner, we have St. Louis county prosecuting attorney Wesley Bell.

And like you said, this primary very closely reflects the primary of squad member Jamal Bowman, who just a couple months ago had a stunning loss.

F
Challenger George Latimer, a moderate Democrat, is defeated. Incumbent democratic Congressman Jamal Bowen.

Brittany Shepard
His campaign pointed to just massive and massive influxes of cash from the super PAC tied to AIPAC. That's the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Ryan Reynolds
My opponent and AIPAC are the ones destroying our democracy.

Brittany Shepard
That race was the most expensive House primary on record. And, Brad, tonight's primary is shaping up to be the second most expensive House primary on record. Even through everything that's going on with the Democrats right now nationally, there's still a lot of divisiveness in who should be the kind of Democrat that folks want to see up on Capitol Hill.

Ryan Reynolds
Well, and you mentioned AIPAC, right? That's the pro Israel pact. It's largely seen as one of the reasons that Jamal Bowman lost his race. And obviously he's got voters who don't like him. You think maybe outside money can help exploit that kind of opposition? But are you saying, I guess that Israel has now become like a primary focus in this race as well?

Brittany Shepard
Yeah, it's the nucleus of all of this. Cori Bush, member of the squad has been really, really vocal as a critic of Israel, especially in the wake of the October 7 attack.

E
Those who refuse to stop the ongoing genocide in Gaza think they can arrest and brutalize their way out of this situation.

Brittany Shepard
She called for a permanent ceasefire, like Jamal Bowman as well, and is among one of the few House members who opposed that resolution supporting Israel, who are.

E
The ones that are actually for all people, not for some people, that is us. And we're going to continue to do that.

Brittany Shepard
And she also boycotted when Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking in front of Capitol Hill just a couple weeks ago. And there's definitely been a lot of blowback, especially from the local St. Louis jewish community. Brad. They've called her statements insensitive, incorrect, and, quote, fanning the flames of anti semitism. Meanwhile, that same community has endorsed Bell pretty enthusiastically.

G
I think it's misguided to not understand how complex this situation is, but we must stand with our allies. But then we still want to, we want to find a peaceful resolution and leave the door open for a two state solution.

Brittany Shepard
He's campaigned really aggressively to get these jewish supporters on his side because AIPAC's money, to the tune of about $8 million, if not more, by tonight, has really animated this race.

E
They are coming for St. Louis.

They're pouring millions upon millions of dollars to flood our airwaves with lies and distortions about me.

Brittany Shepard
And if Cori Bush loses tonight, she would be the second member of the squad, an incumbent member of the House. That's rare. Just completely kicked out of office because of her level of criticism on this.

Ryan Reynolds
So, okay, so if the money is all flowing because of the israeli issue, because of the war in Gaza, I mean, what are the other, are these candidates vulnerable for any other reasons besides that?

Brittany Shepard
I guess, yeah. I mean, both of their records are being very heavily scrutinized right now.

G
You can't just cheer from the bleachers.

Player that stands with President Biden Bell.

Brittany Shepard
Is questioning some of Cori Bush is a member of the squad's progressive bona fides, pointing to her not voting for that infrastructure bill. She says she didn't do that because she wanted more progressive version of that legislation.

E
I will always stand up for what St. Louis deserves and say Louis does not deserve scraps and therefore I don't work for the scraps.

Ryan Reynolds
All right.

Brittany Shepard
Corey Bush's campaign is saying that Bell might not actually be a real progressive. He's campaign managed a Republican who ran for this same House district back in 2006. And local watchdog organizations have been dubious of his progressive record. But Bush is not without vulnerabilities of her own hero.

Ryan Reynolds
But a complaint to the FEC by a right wing PAC accuses Bush of illegally funneling $60,000 of campaign funds to her husband.

Brittany Shepard
There was a Justice Department investigation, actually into her campaign finances because she brought her now husband onto that security payroll.

E
I retained my husband as part of my security team to provide security services because he has had extensive experience in this area.

Brittany Shepard
She's denied any wrongdoing. But of course, there are all these questions about ethics and management of funds that will no doubt be cycling in voters minds.

Ginger Z
National Guard troops are now heading to Ferguson, Missouri.

Ryan Reynolds
The state's governor deployed them overnight after a week of protests over the shooting of an unarmed 18 year old.

Brittany Shepard
And Brad. The shooting of Michael Brown and Ferguson, that happened actually almost ten years ago to the day, has also been an animating part of this primary. The prosecutor involved in that case was actually Wesley Bell himself.

G
Law enforcement in Ferguson and around the country over policed communities of color used disproportionate and unnecessary force.

Brittany Shepard
Bell called a decision not to criminally charge the police officer who shot Brown one of the most difficult things he's had to do as an elected official.

G
Not only would we have to prove the case beyond a reasonable doubt, but by Missouri law, we would also have to prove any self, we would have to disprove any self defense claims beyond a reasonable doubt.

Brittany Shepard
Brown's family has endorsed Cori Bush in this race, and she's even cut an ad featuring members of Michael Brown's family.

Ryan Reynolds
He used my family for power, and now he's trying to sell out St. Louis. He doesn't care about us.

Corey Bush does.

E
I'm Cori Bush, and I approve this message.

Ryan Reynolds
Right. In the Ferguson case, so charged to this day, bail was actually the latest in a string of prosecutors that said, like, I'm sorry, we just can't prove this. But at the end of the day, it's not like you get great polling in a lot of local races like this, right? So, I mean, depending on who wins, what would that mean in the broader scheme?

Brittany Shepard
I think the Democratic Party is going through identity crisis trying to figure out what does it mean to be a Democrat? Is there even space for progressives? Is the Democratic Party moving in a more centrist direction? Will Kamala Harris pull things in a more progressive way? You know, there's, it's a time of flux, if not any crisis, certainly flux and change and figuring out what is the most successful message to prosecute the Republicans and win back the White House for them. I think that. But whatever happens today, it'd be determinative of how that message is crafted going forward.

Ryan Reynolds
Right? Right. Because we got 435 house seats up for grabs every November. So this one no important than any of the others. But if it becomes a trend where the progressives are losing seats, where the squad is shrinking, that becomes a really big deal. Brittany shepherd, our political reporter in DC. Thank you.

Brittany Shepard
Thank you.

Ryan Reynolds
Okay, one more quick break when we come back, if you want to know why a judge just called Google a monopoly, we don't have to google it, just keep listening to us. One last thing is next.

H
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Ryan Reynolds
And one last thing.

Under President Biden, the Justice Department has made lots of noise about taking on big tech.

G
Capitalism without competition is not capitalism, it's exploitation.

I
The Department of Justice, joined by 15 states and the District of Columbia, sued Apple in the us district Court for the District of New Jersey for violating section two of the Sherman Antitrust act. The Department of justice, joined by 29 states and the District of Columbia sued live Nation Entertainment and its wholly owned subsidiary Ticketmaster for violating the Sherman Antitrust act.

Ryan Reynolds
Well, yesterday they got an actual result after a high stakes ten week trial that we covered here. A federal judge said that for years Google has broken antitrust laws when it comes to its search engine. Quote, Google is a monopolist, he wrote, and has acted as one to maintain its monopoly. Now this case was not about whether Google search engine is popular. No ones going to argue its not the very first website most people turn to to, you know, Google something. Scan the Internet. The issue here is that its more difficult to use alternatives like Bing or Yahoo or DuckduckGo, whatever. If youre using an Internet browser like Chrome or Safari or Mozilla Firefox, you can go to Bing.com, type in all those letters, or you can type your search terms directly into the address bar which will automatically take you to Google results. It is the default. And that's no accident. In fact, Google has paid billions of dollars over the years to companies like Apple and Mozilla to become their default search engine. The judge said that had Google not paid all that money, Safari would have likely developed a better search engine of their own. Would be competitors fell by the wayside. But this raises a basic question. Should it be illegal to pay a boatload of money to someone to promote your product instead of making their own?

Google's defense here is, yeah, Apple wanted our search engine. Ours was better than theirs. We wanted to pay them to be exclusive. Everyone's consenting. How is any of this a crime? This is where the judge brought a second issue into play. See, one of the main ways Google makes money is sponsored search results. Like you type in dinner near me, Google gives you all the answers for free. But above them all, it lists that sushi place that paid them $100 to be on top of the list. Well, as Google became the dominant force in search, the judge said they charged more and more money for all these search results. Right? What's the sushi place gonna do? Advertise on bing.com instead? Well, all that extra money Google took in, the judge said, is how they were able to afford these huge exclusive deals in the first place.

Ginger Z
We allege that Google has captured that revenue for its own profits and punished publishers who sought out alternatives.

Ryan Reynolds
Now, Google says they will appeal, and in the meantime, they'll continue to make products that people find helpful and easy to use. But this comes ahead of some crucial cases brought by the DOJ against Apple meta, and yes, another one against Google. And if the government now has precedent on their side, well, SunYa might be searching for explainers on how the whole Internet changed.

You might be wondering, what does Google have to do next? Right? Do they have to pay a fine? Do they have to sell off parts of their company? Do they have to go off of Apple phones? The judge still has to make that decision, so we will keep you updated. Remember, it looks like the Veep stakes reached their climax today, so keep it on ABC News Live, wherever you get live news. I'm Brad Milke. I'll see you tomorrow.

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