Independents Day

This episode explores the increasing number of independent voters in the U.S. and their potential impact on elections.

1. Independent voters are the fastest-growing group in the U.S., often disillusioned with both major parties.
2. These voters are not necessarily moderate or undecided but have distinct and varied political beliefs.
3. Key concerns among independents include the economy, women's rights, gun safety, and foreign policy.
4. Many express frustration with the two-party system and desire more viable third-party candidates.
5. The episode underscores the potential of independent voters to significantly influence election outcomes.

1: Introduction

Host Brad Milke sets the stage by discussing the relevance of independent voters in the current political climate, highlighting their growing numbers and potential impact on elections. Brad Milke: "When we think about the future of this country, this year's election is an inflection point."

2: Definitions and Demographics

Rick Klein explains the characteristics of independent voters, emphasizing that they are not merely undecided or moderate voters. Rick Klein: "An independent voter is not necessarily a moderate voter; it's simply someone who doesn't associate with the major parties."

3: Roundtable Discussion

A diverse group of independent voters share their political affiliations, past voting behaviors, and key issues influencing their decisions, reflecting a broad spectrum of opinions. Brad Milke: "So now I'd like to try something wild, which is talking to some independent voters about what actually matters to them as the election draws nearer."

1. Evaluate political candidates independently: Assess candidates based on their policies and integrity, rather than party affiliation.
2. Explore third-party options: Consider third-party candidates to better represent your views, even if they seem less viable.
3. Stay informed on key issues: Prioritize understanding issues like the economy, women's rights, and foreign policy.
4. Engage in community discussions: Participate in or initiate discussions to understand diverse political viewpoints.
5. Advocate for electoral reforms: Support movements that aim to broaden the political spectrum beyond the two dominant parties.

In a special edition of Start Here, we examine one of the most important swing constituencies in America: independent voters.

People

Brad Milke, Rick Klein

Content Warnings:

None

Brad Milke
Hey, hope you had a great 4 July. Hope you got your cookout on. I hope fireworks displays were all that you had dreamed. And hopefully at some point we were all able to take a moment to think about the things that make this country what it is. All of its idealism, its boldness, its flaws, and of course, its willingness to go it alone, its history of independence. When we think about the future of this country, this years election is an inflection point. And yet for all of our fixation over the democratic and republican candidates, a growing number of Americans, Republicans don't really identify with either of those two parties. And yet it's those unaffiliated independent voters that could easily swing this thing. So today, in that independent spirit, we're gonna focus on these voices we're actually gonna hear directly from some voters. It's a special edition of start here. I'm Brad Milke. I'm gonna start with a quick primer from ABC's political director, Rick Klein. And Rick, thanks for being with us. First of all, am I getting that right or it feels like there's more independence than ever. Is that true?

Rick Klein
The fastest growing political party is no party at all. It's independents, it's people that don't associate with either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. And that's true in red states, it's true in blue states. It's really true in every corner of the country. And it's been going on for the last couple of decades, really.

And it's important to just define the terms here. I mean, an independent voter is not necessarily a moderate voter. It's not even necessarily an undecided voter in any particular election. It's simply someone who says, I've looked at both parties, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, and I don't associate myself with either one of them.

Brad Milke
Yeah, usually I think people interchange independent and undecided or like somebody who's right between Biden and Trump. You're saying that's not what. Like somebody might be very right leaning, but they, they don't think of themselves as a Republican or very left, and they're not a Democrat.

Rick Klein
Precisely. There are independent voters who are true swing voters, that are moderate voters that sometimes vote Democrat, sometimes Republican. There are some who think that the current republican party is too liberal and some who think that the current democratic party is too conservative. There were lots of independent voters who came off the sidelines and voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 who would never vote for a Democrat. And there were plenty of people who considered themselves, independent voters that came up and boosted turnout for Barack Obama and then even for Joe Biden in 2020. So the history in presidential politics has been if you win independent voters, you have a very good chance of winning an election. It isn't necessarily the case, though, that where independents go is where the country goes. Certainly there are a lot of voters there, and some of them are kind of tuned out of politics entirely. Some are thinking about third party candidates very seriously this election cycle. But some are winnable, some are gettable, and some do represent the kind of middle of the country, such as it is, whether or not it's the political middle, it's people that just feel like neither one of the parties fully embraces what they stand for and they're looking for their solutions somewhere else.

Brad Milke
From a macro view, Rick, why? I guess, like where is this trend coming from and where are you seeing it the most? Sort of around the country.

Rick Klein
I think it's a symptom of a mistrust or a distrust in institutions writ large. The political parties are viewed as having failed in very liberal places, in very conservative places. You have a lot of disaffection with it at the national political class, feeling of kind of stagnation and a lack of movement, a lack of prioritization and focusing on just issues that are too small. We hear it over and over again from independent voters. And again, people that come from all kinds of different political stripes that represent this group of Americans who don't associate with either party, I think they're just fed up with a political class that seems to over and over again fall short of delivering on promises.

Brad Milke
Well, and, Rick, I mean, is it overstating it to say that independent voters could be the ones that literally swing this election one way or the other?

Rick Klein
There's no question. I think independent voters are a critical constituency. I think inside of the group of independent voters, you have a group that we've been calling double haters. They don't like either one of these candidates and they may hold their nose and vote for one, or maybe they stay home, which is a consequential outcome. Maybe they vote for a third party candidate, which again, very much matters.

So where independent voters land is going to be all over the place, but wherever the mass of them park their vote or decision not to vote could be enormously consequential in determining the next president.

Brad Milke
All right, Rick Klein, we got love for you. No hate on either side for you. Thank you so much.

Rick Klein
Thank you, Brad.

Brad Milke
Okay, let's take a quick break. When we come back we will talk with the actual people tasked with pulling the lever. A roundtable discussion with independent voters on the other side of the break.

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Michelle
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Brad Milke
So now id like to try something wild, which is talking to some independent voters and people who dont identify with one party most of the time about what they're seeing, what actually matters to them as the election draw nearer. In fact, some of them are even start here listeners. So let's have everyone on this little call of ours introduce yourself, maybe your name where you're from, maybe what you do. I guess we'll start with Michelle. Let's start with Michelle.

Nicole
All right. My name is Michelle. I am in Charlotte, North Carolina. I'm 43 and a mother of two, married and I am in education technology sales.

Brad Milke
Perfect. Nicole maybe?

Steve
Yeah, my name is Nicole, I am in the north Dallas, Texas area. I am 48, single, no kids, and I am a licensed Texas real estate agent and have been for about 2025 years.

Brad Milke
And Steve, who are you?

Ian
My name is Steve. I live just outside of Boston in Watertown, Massachusetts. I am 38 years old and I work in municipal government.

Brad Milke
And let's see Ian I know you're on the phone, right? You're calling from your pulled over car. Can you tell me about yourself?

Lipsyn Ads
My name's Ian. I'm from Pittsburgh.

I'm a machine operator.

Brad Milke
Fabulous. Can I ask how old you are, by the way, Ian?

Lipsyn Ads
No. No. I'm 38.

Brad Milke
Awesome. Okay, so we just heard from our political director, Rick Klein at ABC, about how you got lots of people who are registered as independents, but often vote for a specific party, like they lean one way. There's also people registered with parties like Republicans or Democrats, but who vote very independently, who go back and forth. So I'm wondering if everyone, maybe we could just quickly tell each other sort of about your political affiliation or, like, where you've leaned in the past. What's, like your political sort of identification?

And let's go in reverse order here. Maybe let's start with Ian.

Lipsyn Ads
I'm registered Democrat. For primaries, I do tend to vote democratic a little bit more.

Brad Milke
Great.

Steve. Let's go to Steve.

Ian
So I am registered as an independent. I was a registered Democrat when I first registered to vote. I do tend to vote democratically, but I like to vote based off the candidate and not on the political party.

Brad Milke
Sort of leaning left. And yet wouldn't call yourself some dye to the wool Democrat.

Ian
Exactly.

Brad Milke
Interesting. And, Michelle?

Nicole
Yeah. I was a registered Republican, as was my whole family, so pretty much raised that way.

But I changed my affiliation to independent in 2016.

Brad Milke
Interesting. Nicole?

Steve
I don't affiliate with either party when I was younger. And also, being a Texan, I think is sort of ingrained in you that you're a Republican, but more recently, I've been leaning more Democrat.

Brad Milke
So let's talk about this election coming up. When you think about this election in November, is there, what's the first word that comes to mind?

Anyone?

Nicole
Terrifying. Yeah.

Ian
Is it over?

Brad Milke
What was it? Was that Steve?

Ian
Yeah. I said, is it over?

Brad Milke
Three words, but I think I see what you're saying there. Yeah. Ian, how are you feeling?

Lipsyn Ads
Famous, always.

Brad Milke
What's that like?

Lipsyn Ads
You're voting for the lesser two evils, I guess.

Brad Milke
Anyone want to expound on why they feel that way?

Nicole
I would love to have another option. I would love to be able to pick someone else. It's hard to believe with how many people live in this country that we can't have something that can be a better option for our country.

Ian
Exactly. I can't imagine that with the amount of money that gets poured into presidential elections, that these are the best two candidates, the top two political parties can come up with.

Brad Milke
Well, let's talk about some of the issues that you're most concerned about. Like, would anyone just want to chime in with one or two or three of the issues of the policy things that would make the biggest difference in who you vote for?

Steve
Economy, women's rights and climate change.

Brad Milke
Anyone else?

Nicole
I'd say gun safety, just having some more regulations around gun laws, women's rights as well. And the economy.

Lipsyn Ads
I would agree with the economy and women's rights. Another concern that I'm having is kind of what's going on with Israel and the blind support that we're giving just for whatever reason, because they're an ally.

Brad Milke
Tell me more about that, Ian.

Lipsyn Ads
I mean, a couple of weeks ago, we, we were to ask him what a red line was, what his red line was, and it was the invasion of Rafa. I mean, they've been invading Rafa. We're giving weapons to kill massive amounts of people over something, over a terrorist attack that, you know, as horrible as it was, it's not right to just kill a bunch of innocent people over and to turn a blind eye to it because they're an ally.

Brad Milke
Okay, so then we got economy, we got women's rights, particularly abortion rights, gun safety, military aid for Israel. Steve, how about you? What's, what's driving your vote?

Ian
So I definitely agree with women's right being up there as number one.

The Supreme Court decision to overturn is just mind boggling to me that we live in this day and age and that that is something that is even considered.

I also agree with the economy and I would say foreign policy, but I would also kind of lump immigration in with foreign policy. And I don't know if you guys realize, realize Massachusetts is the only sanctuary state in the country.

So we're dealing with a lot of migrant issues right now. And it's, it's, I'm glad that we accept them, but it's become a big problem in the fact that we're not getting support anywhere else. And I think that's a really big issue that needs to be figured out.

Brad Milke
Right. And I think it's actually the only place with statewide right to shelter rules for migrant families more than a sanctuary state. That's where you're declining to work with the immigration authorities. But what does that concern about immigration? Does that draw you closer to either candidate?

Ian
It actually, it kind of takes both of them out of the equation for me because I don't think, I don't think Trump's envisioning of kicking everybody out and blocking everybody from coming in is good. But I also don't think Joe Biden has a handle on how to do it in a way that is effective for everybody.

Brad Milke
That's helpful. I noticed that no one here brought up, like, Donald Trump's, like, felony conviction or like, no one's saying, like, the state of democracy are there. Is that like, nothing?

Steve
Three? I mean, that is obviously a thing.

Lipsyn Ads
I feel like it's kind of a bludgeoning tactic at this point. When you start looking at Democrats versus Republicans, Republicans are, the country's going to crap and, you know, democracy's over. And then you have, for lack of better words, you have a lot of Democrats, no matter who vote blue. So you feel like either way you fall on the spectrum, if you don't have exactly a line, you know, you're, you're part of the problem.

And it's kind of frustrating because it's just, I feel like at that point, with Donald Trump being a convicted felon, we all knew that.

Ian
Exactly.

Lipsyn Ads
It's not new. And we're covering it like it's breaking news and wall to wall coverage. I mean, you couldn't turn like, oh.

Steve
We finally got him. You know, it's like, oh, we finally got, it's like, no, we knew.

Ian
Exactly. And I kind of feel like people see his conviction, and if you're Republican, you don't care about it. If you're a Democrat, it's like a, aha, we got you.

But for people who sit in the middle and really care about a multitude of issues, it's like, let's talk about something that has real substance. Like, I get it. He's convicted. What he did, you know, is wrong. Whether they overturn it or they appeal it, that doesn't play into where the country is and where we should be going.

Brad Milke
So election, say the election is being held tomorrow. Who are you voting for?

Ian
I don't think I would vote.

Brad Milke
Really?

Ian
Yep.

Brad Milke
That's, that's sort of the number one. Like, that's the number one candidate right now is like none of the above.

Ian
Exactly.

Lipsyn Ads
I would vote down ballot, but I would not vote presidential, agree.

Ian
I would vote down ballot Michelle or Nicole.

Nicole
I would vote for Joe Biden.

Steve
I would vote for Biden.

Brad Milke
Really? So you're saying you're not thrilled with either of your choices, but you're still going to vote for one of these top two, these main two candidates. Have you always felt that way in prior elections, like, you got to vote for the top two?

Nicole
Yeah, I voted for Joe Biden just because I didn't feel like I had a choice. I mean, I will absolutely not vote for Trump. So it just felt like the only other option previously in 2016, actually voted for Gary Johnson just to.

Brad Milke
With a libertarian candidate.

Nicole
Yep. Yep. Just not because I loved him either, but because it felt like another choice. You know, I think having, having a third party option that is viable, I think would make a huge difference.

Steve
You know, with Michelle saying, you know, 2016, she voted for the libertarian. I did also, and I stopped talking about that because I had people from both sides berating me about how I threw away my vote and let the other person win because I didn't vote for the left or the right.

Nicole
Same here.

Lipsyn Ads
Same.

Steve
What was that like at the time? It's very uncomfortable. And I learned very quickly just to not say that again.

And this is the first time I've mentioned it in eight years. Seven. Eight years.

It feels like you're stuck between two people. I mean, we.

It's hard to, you know, say it's a democracy when you are only given two options. And, like, there's so many people in politics itself, much less, you know, in this nation, these are the two best people. We can't have three. We can't have four.

Brad Milke
And so does it make you want to vote for any, like, there are independent candidates, I suppose there's third party candidates. There's also fully independent candidates, like Robert F. Kennedy Junior. Like, are any of those crossing your mind? Or do you feel so burned by years ago that you're like, eh, not this time.

Lipsyn Ads
In my opinion, Robert Kennedy Junior is just Donald Trump. He just doesn't say the quiet part out loud.

Brad Milke
Interesting. So you're like, yeah, he's an independent candidate, but not my kind of independent candidate.

Lipsyn Ads
No, he's an independent candidate because the Republicans won't have him.

Steve
Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. And, you know, their people aren't wrong. I mean, there is no place mathematically for a third party candidate in this nation.

Brad Milke
Oh, you're like, that's interesting that you're like these people treating me like dirt, and it sucks because they're kind of right in that, mathematically. Yeah, I had no impact.

Nicole
Yeah, I'd agree with that. And I felt during that time, I felt like I was doing the right thing. I didn't want to vote for either of them.

But I think ultimately I did end up feeling regret. I knew Gary Johnson wasn't going to win. It was kind of a, you know, we need more options.

Brad Milke
Vote protest, but like a vote to send a message.

Ian
Yes, it kind of makes me sad to hear that because I feel like the, the people who should be failing that way are the candidates for not reaching out far enough in to get people like you who voted for a third party candidate to actually consider voting for them. I think it's so sad that we live in a, in a time where it's one or the other, and there can't be these spaces in between where people can fall in between and have somebody who represents that.

I'm a big disliker of the two party political system.

Lipsyn Ads
I think I've been that way since I was really young, too well, and.

Brad Milke
Then I think I'm right here. I'm hearing that none of you seem to be seriously considering Donald Trump. I should say that's not indicative of the larger trends we've been seeing at ABC News. Right. Like, according to our current polls, independent voters, this crucial bloc, does seem like it's actually tipping a little. It's slight, but it is tipping more towards Trump this year. So I won. Like, even if you don't particularly like Trump, I guess I'm wondering, like, as you think about how independents are feeling, why that might be, in your opinion.

Steve
The only reason why I would vote for Trump is for economic reasons, being a real estate agent and that being my sole source of income this past year has been very difficult with how interest rates are right now. And it's always slower when we're in election year.

But if I was looking at it solely from a greedy, I guess, perspective, I would vote Trump just because I know that he will turn the economy around very quickly.

Brad Milke
Your interest, at least feel aligned with him, even if your idea ideology doesn't.

Steve
Yes. Yeah. But in all good conscience, I can't anymore just vote for what's best for my business and my bank account. And I am thinking more about the future and, you know, women's rights, the Supreme Court, climate change, you know, all these other things that have a much longer lasting impact than the balance of my bank account right now.

Nicole
Yeah. I feel like our democracy really could be at risk if Trump was elected. And that's, you know, economically. Do I think we might be better off? Maybe for a short period of time, but that's not enough of a driver for me to vote for someone that I think would put our democracy at risk.

Brad Milke
Right. But I see. So if we're, like, segmenting things, like, the economic message resonates, and yet there's all these other reasons not to. But it's not like there are. No, there's not like he's got nothing going for him, in my opinion.

Lipsyn Ads
I don't think he has anything going for him, including his track record, even as president. I don't see what he really did. He didn't really do much economically unless you were rich. So now we're having, he gets to come on and have this argument that the economy was better under Trump, but it wasn't. It was good for the upper 1%. And that's what's frustrating about Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Neither one of them are going to help us like the average person.

Steve
Yeah, I think the economy was much better piggybacking on what Ian said during Trump because of COVID and because of what Congress passed to help with stimulus and the economy, and it wasn't necessitated Trump.

He got the accolades for that and.

Lipsyn Ads
He got the right to vote for it.

Steve
Yeah, exactly. And, you know, that ended when Biden came in and he inherited this mess that he had to clean up and that automatically ended when he came in. So it made him the bad guy.

Brad Milke
Well, then, last question for you. If Trump or Biden or leaders in any of these Democrat or republican parties were listening to this, what would you want them to, they've had their chance to make themselves known to you, but what would you want them to hear from you, the voter?

Lipsyn Ads
I just want somebody that's actually in touch with the american people. I mean, these guys will come out and say something and it's so out of touch. You're like, what world was that like a thing?

Ian
They really need to get out of this mindset that if they only do what their bases are looking for and speak to their bases, they really need to get out and speak to everybody, speak to independents like us, speak to the other party like we were in such a place where it's one or the other. And no, no rational thinking person is that extreme in reality. Socially, I am very liberal, but I also have to make a living. So I understand that, you know, there are things where we do need to be a little bit more conservative when it comes to, you know, financials and in the economy.

Nicole
Yeah, I agree with what Steve says.

I've always considered myself socially liberal, but fiscally conservative.

I really think that many, there's many people out there like us. I just think that either, both parties have gotten so polarized and so divisive and everybody's kind of thriving on the anger and the negativity of it. And I just don't believe that that's what America is really like. So that's what I would tell them is to stop the polarization of our country and try to come together and find something that's going to work for all of us.

Steve
I agree 100%.

I don't know what the DNC and RNC are really thinking.

They've just gone so extreme and they're leaning into that. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels like it's just making our country feel even more divided.

You know, politics didn't used to be this cutthroat, this angry. And, you know, I almost feel like we're a nation of a bunch of little different countries and we're no longer the United States.

Brad Milke
Hmm. Well, I can't tell you enough how much I appreciate you guys taking the time to do this. I think it's really illuminating, not just for me, but for a lot of our listeners out there. So thank you guys so much.

Lipsyn Ads
Thank you.

Steve
Thank you.

Nicole
Thank you.

Brad Milke
And that will do it for us on this 5 July, I should say we actually recorded this before last week's debate. We followed up with our panelists right afterwards. No one said their vote had changed because of that. In fact, Ian said the debate amplified his concerns. Michelle says she is hoping Biden removes himself from the ticket, but that if he has the option remaining, that's who she's going to vote for. Nicole said she was worried by the debate, but then she said she was even more worried about Donald Trump in the wake of the Supreme Court decision on immunity just this week. So really interesting. I think it takes guts to talk politics with a bunch of strangers. And it was just really cool to have this group of Americans from around the country talk calmly and kindly about what matters to them. Plus a couple of them, Nicole and Michelle, are start here listeners, too. So one more reminder about what a great community this has become. Start here is produced by Kelly Torres, Jen Newman, Brenda Salinas Baker, Vika Aronson, Cameron Chertavian, Anthony Ali, Mauro Muwaki, and Amira Williams. Ariel Chester is our social media producer. Josh Cohan is director of podcast programming. I'm our managing editor. Laura Mayer is our executive producer. Thanks to Lakia Brown, John Newman, Tara Gimble, and Liz Alessi. Special thanks this week to Chris Berry, Oren Oppenheim and Kelsey Walshe. I'm Brad Milke. We'll be back with all the news a day after this holiday weekend. I'll see you then.