Has the Tide Turned Against Biden?

This episode explores the escalating concerns within the Democratic Party regarding President Biden's mental fitness and suitability to continue his reelection campaign after a problematic public debate.

1. A significant shift in the Democratic Party's support for Biden following his debate performance.
2. Public and private concerns are growing about Biden's mental fitness and ability to campaign.
3. Key Democratic figures, including Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn, are cautiously addressing the situation.
4. The White House is struggling to manage the narrative and reassure the party and public.
5. There is a possibility of Vice President Kamala Harris being pushed to the forefront if Biden steps aside.

1. Post-Debate Reactions

Initial support for Biden post-debate wanes as concerns over his performance grow. Prominent Democrats begin to voice doubts publicly. Brad Milke: "Are these isolated voices or a sign that the dam is breaking?" Rachel Scott: "Democrats were saying privately just a few days ago. They are now saying publicly."

2. Pressing Concerns

Discussion on Biden's health and capability intensifies, with the White House under scrutiny for lack of transparency. Rachel Scott: "They continue to insist that this is a bad night." Karine Jean-Pierre: "He had a cold and a bad night."

3. Potential Leadership Changes

The possibility of Biden stepping aside for Kamala Harris is discussed amid growing pressures. Nancy Pelosi: "Should do everything we can to bolster her, whether it's in second place or at the top of the ticket." Jim Clyburn: "I'm all in for that candidate cause I don't want a demagogue."

• Stay informed about political developments to understand potential leadership changes.
• Support transparent communication from political leaders to ensure accountability.
• Encourage and participate in open discussions about the mental fitness and capabilities of leaders.
• Advocate for clear succession plans within political parties to ensure stability.
• Promote mental health awareness and understanding in political discourse.

Democrats on Capitol Hill begin to openly question whether President Biden should remain on the ticket. Donald Trump’s sentencing is pushed back in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on immunity. And the U.K. prepares for what could be a landmark vote.

People

Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, Lloyd Doggett, Joe Manchin, Karine Jean-Pierre, Rachel Scott

Companies

None

Books

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Guest Name(s):

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Content Warnings:

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Brad Milke
It's Wednesday, July 3, and the calls he was fearing have begun. We start here.

Some Democrats begin openly calling for President Biden to end his reelection campaign.

Rachel Scott
The concern is palpable. It is piercing.

Brad Milke
Are these isolated voices or a sign that the dam is breaking? If this was already a good week for President Trump, well, this could make it a great one.

Aaron Ketersky
The defense appears to be relying on a portion of the Supreme Court opinion.

Brad Milke
Will the only criminal conviction of a former president in history even stand up in court? And it's already time to vote in the UK.

James Longman
Basically, the feeling in this country is that nothing works and they want to change.

Brad Milke
Tomorrow's election arrives at a defining moment for a country and a continent.

From ABC News, this is start here. I'm Brad Milke.

In the aftermath of a disastrous debate for President Joe Biden, the line from a lot of democratic officials was a pretty simple one. Biden might have had a tough night, but hes our guy. Publicly they were saying, listen. Yeah, his voice didnt sound good. Hes got a cold. And as far as those long, uncomfortable pauses, well, everyone has good days and bad days. This was a bad one. But behind closed doors, some Democrats were saying the problem is this isn't the only bad day we've seen. And it's one thing to win an election, it's another to govern. Is Biden really up to each of those challenges? Now, if Biden were to drop out of this race, you'd have to imagine that could only come under intense pressure from fellow elected Democrats, perhaps even pressure in public. Well, yesterday we started to see that pressure build out in the open. Let's start the day with ABC senior congressional correspondent Rachel Scott. Rachel, we keep hearing people around Capitol Hill saying, like the whole vibe is changing on this conversation. Things are moving very quickly. What can you tell us, Brad, what.

Rachel Scott
Democrats were saying privately just a few days ago. They are now saying publicly, Brad, I have been on the phone all day. I've been talking to over a dozen Democrats. And the concern is palpable. It is piercing. There is mounting pressure on President Biden from Democrats who are demanding answers about the president's mental fitness and who are also raising questions about whether he should go on with his campaign.

Days ago, we saw Democrats insisted this is just one bad night. We're going to turn the page and move forward.

Brad Milke
It is always a bad bet to.

Nancy Pelosi
Bet against Joe Biden.

Brad Milke
I think the debate started off a.

James Longman
Little slow for the president, but it ended strong.

Nancy Pelosi
He's still the most experienced person in the race. And I do believe the american people want steady hands at the wheel.

Rachel Scott
No one was really calling out right on the president to step aside. Well, that has officially happened. Now the first democratic member of Congress has now come forward to say that the president should drop out. Congressman Lloyd Doggett of Texas. He said, quote, President Biden's first commitment has always been to the country, not to himself. He says that he is hopeful that Biden's going to make this painful and difficult decision to withdraw from the democratic nomination. BRAD and he's not alone. Sources also told me that Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was also considering coming out in the days after that debate, going on television and calling on the president to step aside. It wasn't until you had Democrats on Capitol Hill, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, intervene and call Manchin directly that he eventually decided not to go forward with that. But he was thinking about it for a good chunk of time.

Nancy Pelosi
BRAD so I think we have to have an honest assessment of where we are with the objective being keeping Donald Trump out of office.

Jim Clyburn
I know the stakes are incredibly high, whether it is Biden, whether the party, you know, this is above my pay grade, decides it's going to be somebody else, I'm all in for that candidate cause I don't want a demagogue.

Rachel Scott
The tone has changed within the Democratic Party, and it is evident from even some of Biden's closest allies and staunchest supporters, like former speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi on MSNBC. She said that questions about the president's fitness are legitimate.

Nancy Pelosi
I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition? And so when people ask that question, it's completely legitimate of both candidates.

Rachel Scott
Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, who helped save Biden's campaign last time around, he was also on MSNBC. And he said, yeah, he supports Biden, but he also said that Democrats should rally behind Vice President Kamala Harris. If Biden decides to step aside, we.

Nancy Pelosi
Should do everything we can to bolster her, whether it's in second place or.

Brad Milke
At the top of the ticket.

Rachel Scott
Just tossing that idea out there was unthinkable for Democrats a year ago, let alone two weeks ago. And now they are saying this out in the open and having these conversations.

Brad Milke
Brad, what has been the word from the Biden campaign or from the White House itself?

Rachel Scott
So we saw the White House hold its very first formal press briefing since that debate. And there have been mounting questions for days, especially because so many Democrats have pointed out that when the president has come before the camera, since that debate, he's been on a teleprompter. These aren't unscripted remarks. Reporters haven't been able to ask questions directly to the president. He's ignored shouted questions. So we put those questions directly to the White House. Press secretary Pelosi said it's a legitimate question to ask if this is an episode or is this is a condition, which one is it?

Karine Jean-Pierre
Well, what I can tell you is that he had a cold and a bad night.

I would not see this as an episode.

I would see this as what it was and what we believe it to be, which is it was a bad night.

Rachel Scott
They continue to insist that this is a bad night. We also pressed and asked if they're being straight with the american people.

Karine Jean-Pierre
The president's saying, I am not a young man. I'm not as a smooth, smooth talker as I used to be. I don't walk as easily as I used to be. I used to, I don't debate as well as I used to.

Rachel Scott
We're hearing more and more reports that this wasn't just a one off instance, and that's what's prompting so much of the concern from Democrats. They're asking if this is President Biden today, what's President Biden going to be in a couple of months? We're still four months out until the election.

Brad Milke
Well, and, Rachel, it doesn't surprise me reporters would have these questions. It is surprising to me that it sounds like democratic officials are asking the White House for answers and they're not getting any at the moment asking the.

Rachel Scott
White House and in some cases almost begging to talk to the president. Brad, it has been several days since the debate, and it has taken several days for the president of the United States to call his top allies on Capitol Hill who were out on television defending him every single day. I was told by sources very close to top leaders on Capitol Hill that he had not spoken to the democratic majority leader, Chuck Schumer, the democratic House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, not even Nancy Pelosi or Jim Clyburn until last night. Right.

Brad Milke
That makes me also wonder if silence is either like they don't know how to answer the questions or if silence means like, maybe they're seriously considering a change. I mean, where does Biden go from here? I guess what's next?

Rachel Scott
Well, there are signs, Brad, that the president might be getting the message here, that it's starting to reach him, this frustration not only from Democrats on Capitol Hill but also from some democratic governors.

Nancy Pelosi
We got on a call. We talked about some of the things that we're doing, talking about the political racism things.

Rachel Scott
They had a check in and they talked about the debate. They expressed concern over the president's performance.

Nancy Pelosi
It was obviously a poor performance in last Thursday's debate. And governors are asking questions about what is the plan? How are you going to do this? How are you going to message this?

Rachel Scott
Well, sources tell us that as early as today, the president is expected to speak with those democratic governors to try to calm some of their nerves. We're also learning that the president is going to hold a press conference sometime next week for the NATO summit, and then he's going to sit down with our very own George Stephanopoulos in his very first interview since that debate. This is a big exclusive. And I will tell you, many Democrats will be watching this to see how the president does during this interview.

Brad Milke
Right. And we'll be seeing clips of that interview on Friday, World News Tonight, then Good Morning America over the weekend. That whole interview will be on this week with George Stephanopoulos on Sunday. But Rachel, I keep thinking if Biden's going to say, you know, I just had an off night, I wonder if he'll give a more detailed response about why that is. Because last night he was at a campaign fundraiser. He apparently said behind closed doors that he traveled a bunch before the debate against the advice of his advisors and that he, quote, almost fell asleep on stage.

We'll see how democrats feel about all this. Rachel Scott there on the Hill. Thank you.

Rachel Scott
Thanks, Brad.

Brad Milke
Next, I'm on start here. The Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity could affect every president in the future. Heck, it's already reshaping trials that have ended. We're back in a bit.

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Brad Milke
When the Supreme Court gave its groundbreaking ruling Monday saying presidents have absolute immunity for their official acts in office, they have been asked to rule specifically on the federal case against Donald Trump on election interference. But as we talked about, this ruling goes way beyond just one case and in fact, could apply to other cases already involving former President Trump himself. Remember, he's already become the first president ever convicted of a felony, but he still hasn't been sentenced for that. And yesterday, the judge decided to hold off on a sentencing hearing, recognizing that this entire case might have just been thrown up in the air. ABC senior investigative correspondent Aaron Ketersky covered this whole trial there in Manhattan. Aaron, I know Trump is appealing, but short of that, I thought this verdict was done and dusted. What's going on?

Aaron Ketersky
It was supposed to be done and dusted, and sentencing was supposed to be July 11 next week, days before Trump claims the republican nomination. And all of that now is up in the air because of this landmark Supreme Court ruling. And this is sort of the first ripple effect that's being felt from that. Because hours after the Supreme Court opinion landed, Trump's attorneys asked the judge to put off sentencing and to consider whether the whole conviction of Trump should be thrown out because of what the Supreme Court said.

They sent us a letter to the judge saying they would like permission to file a motion to set aside the verdict where Trump was convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records. The Manhattan district attorney's office responded, saying they disagreed with what the defense was trying to do, but they did not oppose his request for additional time. And then judge Juan Mershon said, all right, sentencing will now be September 18, so less than two months before the election.

Brad Milke
Wow, so different timing, but it'll still be super high stakes timing. I'm confused though, Aaron. This whole case that you covered for months about hush money payments revolved around stuff. This was happening in the 2016 presidential election. Trump became president in 2017. So, I'm sorry, how could you possibly be protected by official presidential acts when you're not the president yet, in fact.

Aaron Ketersky
Judges had already said that this had nothing to do with official acts. This was Trump, not even an official, yet he wasn't president. And yet the defense said there was some evidence that should now, in light of the Supreme Court opinion, be deemed inadmissible that the jury ended up seeing. And specifically, Brad, they're thinking of the testimony of Hope Hicks, who was White House communications director. She testified about a conversation she had with Trump in February 2018 musing about the stormy Daniels matter and Trump saying that better to have come out, you know, after the election than before the election.

The defense also mentioned a number of tweets that Trump sent while he was president and a government ethics form that he filled out again while in office. And the defense is going to argue that based on the Supreme Court ruling, those things should have been excluded from the trial. Now, the Manhattan district attorney's office has not yet formally responded, but they're likely to argue, Brad, that the jury took less than 10 hours to convict Trump on all 34 counts of falsifying business records. They're going to say there was a lot of evidence, and it's hard to say that these items that the defense is pointing to made the difference.

Brad Milke
Wait, that's interesting, Eric, because I took the Supreme Court ruling to mean, like, so this is the stuff you can do in office and you'll never be thrown in jail over it, basically. Like, you had that assurance. Is this also saying, like, you can't even be asked about this stuff, or like, you, people can't even see this stuff if you don't want them to?

Aaron Ketersky
Brad, the defense appears to be relying on a portion of the Supreme Court opinion that said testimony or private records of the president or his advisors may not be admitted as evidence at a trial.

Now, whether that's going to hold up, we'll wait for Judge Juan Marshan to decide. He said he would take papers on the matter later this month, and then he gave himself until September 6 to think it over and determine whether the Supreme Court opinion should actually have any bearing on this first ever conviction of a former american president.

Brad Milke
Wow. Unbelievable stuff. Really interesting. Aaron Katersky, thank you so much.

Aaron Ketersky
Thank you, Brett.

Brad Milke
Tomorrow, across the country, Americans will be taking much of the day to relax. Take a break with your family. But in the UK, it's election day.

Rishi Sunak
I spoke with his Majesty the king to request the dissolution of parliament.

The king has granted this request and we will have a general election on the 4 July.

Brad Milke
That's right. You might have forgotten that the british prime Minister Rishi Sunak scheduled elections for the 4 July. They just held a debate on the BBC. So let's break it all down with ABC's foreign correspondent James Longman in London. James, last time we spoke, you talked about the two main parties, right, conservative on the right, labor on the left. And you said conservatives have been in power so long, it would be difficult to find people in a country that's so disappointed with its government to be like, yes, several more years of these people, please. Is that still the case or what is the state of play there?

James Longman
Brad, it's absolutely the case. The story of this election hasn't been who will win. It's been a question of by how much the Conservatives will lose. And it is truly astronomical. I mean, this election is turning into a historic one. We don't often have these in Britain. There are watershed elections where it's not just a change of government, but it upturns the entire system.

Brad Milke
If you want to end 14 years.

James Longman
Of chaos and rebuild our country, then that power is in your hands. If Labour wins, the prime minister will be Keir Starmer, who is not a particularly colourful performer. He's seen as a pretty boring individual. I think we spoke about this last time, a bit of a mister bean. He was in the tv debates with Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, and it was generally considered that it was a draw, but that Sunak performed better because he's kind of better in that kind of showman position, if you like.

Rishi Sunak
I understand why you're frustrated with our party, with me, I get it. And if you are not certain about Labour, don't surrender to them.

James Longman
But Keir Starmer, he's a former prosecutor, 61 years old, so older than most of our recent prime ministers in Britain, although rather a lot younger than either of your two presidential candidates. Just as a recap, there are 650 constituencies or voting districts in Britain. Each of those sends a lawmaker to parliament. You need a majority to form the government. So you basically need 326 seats. Now, usually in our system, each government will probably trade small majorities of maybe 300 3340 seats. You're talking 2025 seats in it. The latest poll has Labour winning 484 seats and the Conservatives. And this is the real big story in this country. On just 64, that's the lowest estimate. When you think the last election in 2019, Boris Johnson won the Conservatives 365 seats, that is an almost complete wipeout of the governing conservative party's parliamentary presence. This puts it up there with some of our most extraordinary and consequential elections in british history.

Brad Milke
Well, why is that? Pardon my american bluntness, why, if Conservatives screwed it up so much? I guess, like, what is going on?

James Longman
Well, partly it's an incumbency issue. I mean, you know, any, any government, any power, any party that's been in power for as long as the Conservatives have 14 years are going to struggle trying to sell another term in government. And this is what often happens. You see, if you look back, the Tories, when they took over from the Labour party, that was after some 13 years in power for the Labour party. Then when the Labour party won, that was that historic victory in 1997 from Tony Blair. They took over after the Conservative have been in power back then for 18 years. So in some ways, it's part of a pattern. It's just the scale of the conservative loss, which is truly extraordinary. And that's because people in this country feel there's a massive cost of living crisis. I know that people are feeling that in the United States at the moment, inflation is something that's hit around the world. There's a sense that the stewards of this government, this country, have not dealt with that properly. We have an NHS, a national health service, which people are very proud of in this country, but it is on its knees. Waiting times for surgery are incredibly long. Ambulances are lining up outside hospitals. We've got school buildings which are not fit for purpose. Sewage is being pumped into our waterways. Immigration is a massive issue here. Prisons are overcrowded. I mean, Brad, I could go on and on and on and on, but basically the feeling in this country is that nothing works and they want to change.

Brad Milke
But what's so interesting to me, James, is when you describe that conservatives have been in power for 14 years. So, of course, if people are upset, they're the ones who are going to pay. But when you look at the rest of Europe, far right parties, like ultra conservative parties, are very much on the rise. So I'm wondering, how high are the stakes in Britain and how does this figure into kind of the larger scheme of Europe at this point?

James Longman
Well, one of the big dynamics of this election, which wasn't present the last time round, was we not only have the Labour party taking away votes from the conservatives on the left, we have a new insurgent right wing party in reform, which is taking votes away from the conservatives on the right, they're being squeezed from both sides, and reform would have quite a lot in common with a number of the far right parties, which have taken Europe by storm, really, over the last few months, we've seen in the european elections, the AfD in Germany, massive gains there. In France, of course, the National Front. The French are in the midst of an incredibly important election where the National Front may actually end up or actually, in all likelihood, will take control of the National assembly.

Brad Milke
Vive la Republique. Vive la France.

James Longman
You have in the Netherlands as well, right wing group there. So I think it's part, if you look at this in the wider european context, you're looking at a situation where it's anti incumbency.

Whoever is in power, whatever the establishment is, people have had enough. It happens that in Britain, the Conservatives to the right of the political spectrum have been the ones in power. But again, we do have this extra right, this far right, if you like, group in reform run by Nigel Farage, who is a friend of Donald Trump.

Nancy Pelosi
We are now the real opposition.

James Longman
He repeats it any chance he gets. It is a dynamic in Britain, the far right, although it is not as powerful as it is in other parts of Europe. And Nigel Farage will not get huge numbers in this election, but he may well, for the 8th time of trying, become a lawmaker in the houses of parliament.

Brad Milke
That's interesting, though. Just because conservatives have been in charge doesn't mean that Britain is getting way more left leaning or way more progressive. It just means that sort of anyone, but at this point. All right, James long, and we'll see what happens tomorrow. Thank you.

James Longman
Thanks a lot, Brad.

Brad Milke
Okay, one more quick break. When we come back, it takes just one ruined day on the seaside to convince you that life's a beach. One last thing is next.

Rachel Scott
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Brad Milke
Last thing.

This is like the ultimate beach weekend. Lots of Americans are about to take four straight days chilling in the surf and sand. At least that was the plan. But at many beaches, it's already a total bummer. Dude.

Just this week, Massachusetts authorities closed dozens of beaches.

Jim Clyburn
The water quality hasn't been good for a while. All the years have been coming. I've never stepped foot in this water.

Brad Milke
Several cities in New York and California made similar decisions in recent weeks. The reason behind all of them? Too much bacteria in the water.

Rachel Scott
The risk is there, even if you're just putting your toes in, right? Because the bacteria is present and the.

Brad Milke
Bacteria might cause a skin reaction. Bacteria levels have been spiking for different reasons. In Massachusetts, at least nine beaches have seen elevated levels of enterococci bacteria that often come from animal waste. In Michigan, four beaches were shut down because of E. Coli. And in New York, officials said bacteria had been swept into the sea by recent rainwater. Its not just stuff flooding in from off the streets either. Multiple lakes in Massachusetts have been deemed unhealthy to swim in because of cyanobacteria, which comes from an algae bloom. And all this speaks to a world in which climate change is affecting everything, including our means to cool down. Like algae blooms happen when water is extra warm. And you might have heard the ocean itself is in the middle of a heat wave. Climate change also leads to drought punctuated by severe storms. So think about it. More stuff is getting swept out to the beaches all at once. Like animal waste, like stuff in the street. The places where we go to beat the heat are being affected by the heat, whether it's a river, lake, or ocean. The CDC says you should stay out of water that looks cloudier than usual or that smells bad, and of course, clean up after your dog or you could accidentally ruin your own beach day.

Hopefully you live somewhere where you can cool off over the next few days. And in fact, because it's Independence Day tomorrow, you're gonna get the start here, team the day off. So no show tomorrow, but keep your podcast feed up and running because on Friday we are gonna come back with a special episode devoted to, wait for it, independent voters in what's becoming kind of a crisis moment for many of them. Really interesting conversations to be had, including, we got a couple start here, listeners joining the show to weigh in. I'm Brad Milke. I'll see you Friday.