61: Three Reasons the Stock Market Could Go Down in 2024

Austin Hankwitz
Hey, everyone, and welcome back to the Rich Habits podcast, a top ten business podcast on Spotify. My name is Austin Hankowitz, and I'm joined by my co host, Robert Croke. Robert is a seasoned entrepreneur in his fifties with lifetime revenue of over 300 million under his belt. And I'm an entrepreneur in my late twenties with a background in finance and economics. Since quitting my full time job in corporate finance a few years ago, I've built a seven figure media business, and I actively advise some of the most well known fintech companies around the world.

Now, as the show name might suggest, every episode we talk about rich habits as they relate to business, finance, and mindset. However, we try and bring you two unique perspectives, one from an industry veteran, which is Robert, and the other myself, someone who's still in the process of building wealth and figuring it all out. So, Robert, what are we going to be talking about in today's episode? In this episode of the Rich Habits podcast, we're going to switch it up a little bit. We're going to talk about Black swan events and what that means to all of you and how to prepare for them.

Robert Croke
Now, obviously, the term black swan means unforeseen or unpredictable, like COVID-19 or 911. And unfortunately, a lot of the geopolitical uncertainty we're seeing right now is exactly that. However, there are a few things that we've been able to observe over the last week or so beyond geopolitical uncertainty that are catalyzing volatility in the markets and red in our portfolios. So in this episode, we're going to share with you three key observations that could shape the rest of 2024. We'll also be sharing with you how you could prepare for it and some ideas as how you could capitalize from it.

So, Austin, why don't you kick us off with point number one, because this is certainly at the top of everyone's minds right now. But before we jump into that, I just do want to remind everyone that our friends@public.com have recently launched their own podcast called the rundown. Now, a new rich habit that you can work into your daily routine is listening to the rundown public's financial news podcast. It's only five minutes long, and you'll walk away caught up on which stocks are making the biggest moves and the economic stories that matter most for your portfolio. So, rich habits were a weekly show.

Austin Hankwitz
The rundown is daily. So if you want to stay up to date on a daily basis on some of these big stories that are happening, be sure to check them out as well. You can check out the rundown wherever you listen to podcasts, and we'll be sure to share a link in the description below. The first point, Robert, I think people need to be aware of one of these key observations for 2024 is the reacceleration of inflation. Now, as we all know, inflation skyrocketed, and in 2021 and 2022, because one, the government shut down the economy due to COVID, and two, the government printed $7 trillion in stimulus.

However, in 2022, Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates at the fastest pace in 40 years. He did this in efforts to crush inflation. This is what caused the stock market to enter a bear market in 2022. Right, because investors do not like high interest rates. Remember, the higher the interest rate, the higher the cost to borrow money.

And when corporation who is borrowing tens of millions, hundreds of millions, billions of dollars of debt that these corporations tend to carry, higher interest rates mean higher expense. And that is not going to be good for shareholders. Now, as we fast forward through 2022 and 2023, unfortunately, in January, February, and in March, right three months in a row now, inflation has accelerated, which is not a good thing for investors. We've seen energy and shelter be the two underlying components, Robert, that are causing this new resurgence in inflation. And if you try the price of copper like I do, which is one of these leading indicators for where inflation might be headed, you'll see that it is breaking out to the upside, not a good sign for inflation.

So as we think about key observances to keep an eye on, that might shape the rest of 24, this sort of re acceleration of inflation, Robert, is one of them that I am being laser focused on keeping track of. Yeah, we definitely have to keep an eye on all of these factors, and that's why this episode is so important. So great breakdown, Austin. And just to give some additional color around this recent acceleration with inflation is that inflation rose 0.3% in January, 0.4% in February, and another 0.4% in March. That's over 1% across all categories in just a few short months.

Robert Croke
So if you all aren't tracking this data yourself, you should be. It's called the CPI, which stands for Consumer price index. Austin and I are always tracking and reporting back to you the newest information regarding the stock market and economy, which is why, why we're making this episode. So you make sure that you're following along as well and understanding these data reports more and more. So you know where the economy is heading and can get ahead of it.

Austin Hankwitz
Everyone should be looking toward the CPI, right? The consumer price index. Is it going up? Is it going down? What's happening?

Right? Because that is inflation. And as we all know, inflation unfortunately has been the silent killer, as one might say, of the middle class over the last four years. Robert, everything on average is now 25% to 30% more expensive than it was in January of 2020. So, man, inflation, it's here.

And unfortunately, it hasn't gone anywhere. But that is, again, one thing people need to observe as it relates to 2024 and what's going to help shape our portfolios. But Robert, walk us now through the second thing that people should be keeping an eye on and making sure is top of mind as it relates to their portfolios in 24. That takes us into point number two, the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates. So speaking of things being out of control, the Federal Reserve is beginning to seem out of control themselves.

Robert Croke
Just three short months ago, Jerome Powell was eluding the idea of cutting interest rates between six and seven times in 2024. And that would have brought the federal funds rate down to the 4% range. And that would have been great news for the economy, the stock market, and everyday consumers like you and me and home buyers. Lower interest rates means lower mortgage rates, which is great as well. But with the recent reacceleration of inflation, and I quote, Jerome stated, the recent inflation data has clearly not given us greater confidence to cut interest rates and instead indicates that it's likely to take longer than expected.

To achieve that confidence, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed. So that is not good news for us. That statement shocked the markets over the last week, causing everyone to panic sell, thinking we are going to get one or two rate cuts in 2024. And Austin again laid it out clearly, lower interest rates are good for corporate profits and good for stock valuations as investors, and we always want those lower interest rates. I remember on Tuesday when Jerome stated that, and everyone was freaking out, thinking, wait a second, are we not getting these six or seven rate cuts like we had thought?

Austin Hankwitz
The CME Fed watch tool was even pricing in as late as, I think it was February 1, Robert, that we were going to see six or seven rate cuts, right? That's why the stock market traded at all time highs. Because of course we know this. The stock market, Robert, is forward looking. We always want to be thinking not what's happening today, but what's going to happen into the future.

And how can we discount that back to where we are in the present. And what does that mean for our investments? And so everyone was thinking six or seven rate cuts throughout 24. Let's discount that back to today. That equals all time highs in the stock market.

Well, we're not getting those six or seven rate cuts. We'll be lucky to get one or two this year, which is why we're now seeing the stock market come down. It's going to be a weird one here, but here's my thing, right? In my humble opinion, I think the Federal Reserve will continue their hawkish posture throughout Q two and Q three. But I'm optimistically thinking that the stock market will not stay bearish throughout that entire time period.

I think we're going to have a volatile Q two as investors weigh their original investment theses against this new reality of rates remaining higher for longer. But I am hopeful that Q three is going to bring us some relief. So what am I doing? I'm using the next four to eight weeks. All this volatility, if it's red or green or left and right, going in circles, this uncertainty, I'm using it as an opportunity to buy quality companies at fair prices.

For me, that's Google, Adobe meta platforms, Amazon, Mastercard and Costco. I listened to an interview, Robert, with Jeff Bezos the other day, and it really inspired me to want to invest in some of these companies because he said something so profound that I really want to share with our listeners. He said, as an investor, don't look toward the next ten years and try to predict what's new and what's going to happen. Instead, identify what certainly will not change during that same period of time. He gave an example of people will always want their Amazon orders delivered to them faster and cheaper, and that's never gonna change.

So as an investor, however much AI you wanna believe is gonna be in the future, Costco is gonna be a place people go to on a Sunday to get their groceries and Mastercard. We're not gonna stop swiping our Mastercards, Robert. So as an investor right now, I just want to encourage people to be thinking about what's not gonna change over the next five or ten years, right? How can I invest into what I know is gonna be certain in that timeframe? Yeah.

Robert Croke
And one of the things that we talk about a lot that we should touch on right here is the fact that we look at these opportunities when there's pullbacks in markets is exactly that. Opportunities to buy. If we love these companies, the Nvidias and the meta platforms and the Salesforce and all these companies that we buy and we dollar cost average into, we look at these as sales. We're not looking at it as bad news. We're not getting afraid.

We're like, hey, I believe in Micron, you know, Mu and AMD, advanced micro devices and Salesforce. And like you said, google, all of these companies, Amazon, we look at it as, ooh, there's a pullback of ten or 15%. That's free money for us. And that's what everyone listening needs to think like too, don't look at it as, oh, I'm losing money. You're not.

You should be looking at it as buying more and as an opportunity. So I wanted to get that out of the way because you really covered it well, but I wanted to put my twist on it because it's just so important for everyone to be able to zoom out and understand these corrections and really how to benefit from them. And Robert, just to add a quick note at the end of that to your point, right, these opportunities, if someone is like you and I, we're going to be investors until we die, right? We're going to be investing until we die. We want our portfolios to grow and grow and grow.

Austin Hankwitz
So unless someone is literally in retirement or plans to retire over the next two, three, five years, you should be looking at this volatility as opportunity. I'm in my twenties. I look at the volatility and I'm like, oh my gosh, I get to buy more at these discounted prices, like what Robert said here. So I just want to reiterate, if you plan to invest and grow your money, even into retirement, like, this should be an opportunity and this should not be something you get really scared of. Yep, I agree totally.

Robert Croke
And we just need to keep preaching that message because all the money is made during these uncertain times and these market downturns, you know, and that's just the best way that you need to be thinking about these pullbacks in the market. So just to get into the third observation, and that is geopolitical uncertainty. The last black swan like event I want us to briefly touch on is all of the unfortunate geopolitical uncertainty happening around the world. Israel has been at war now for several months. Iran just launched missiles last weekend at Israel as well, and Israel responded Friday with more missiles back at them.

This is heartbreaking and we pray for peace all around the globe. But as investors, it's important to understand that war brings uncertainty in the markets. 2022 was a horrible year in the stock market, not only because of the higher interest rates that we spoke of earlier, but also because of the war in Ukraine. In times of war, energy and gold tend to trend higher in prices. T bills are certain income and returns offsetting the mass uncertainty that comes with war and conflict.

But above all, we want everyone to know how important it is to stick with the plan. That is key here is don't have these knee jerk reactions. You hear us all the time say, when in doubt, zoom out. And for instance, I want to give a little math here. The s and P 500 returned over 26% in 2023.

And over the last 45 years, the s and P 500 has only had nine down years. So if this year does turn out to be a red year, that's great. It's an opportunity for all of us to buy quality companies at great prices. I'm right there with you, Robert. I am certainly praying for peace.

Austin Hankwitz
And it is heartbreaking to see everything happening around this world. But at the end of the day, what I don't want people to do is sell their investments thinking, oh, my gosh, the Fed this, inflation that, war that, oh, gosh, I got to sell everything. That's not at all what we're saying here, y'all. What this episode is about. Robert and I are not only people who are trying to invest our own money and stay up to date on everything, but we're also analyzing everything in real time alongside of you.

And when we see volatility in the markets and when we see inflation reaccelerate, and when we see rate cuts go from six times or seven times to one or two times, and everything happening in the. When we see these things happen in real time, we want to talk to you about what's going on in our own perspectives there, right? So this is us sharing in real time what we have our eyes on as investors of millions of dollars, and what we are focused on as investors to make sure that we can not only share with you what we are focused on and doing, but also giving you the tools and resources to learn about those things on your own as well. Because that's thing, we don't want to just tell you all what's going on and tell you what we're doing. We want to educate you guys so you all can then go out and learn more about it yourself and make your own educated decision.

So, Robert, I think you did a wonderful job breaking down this episode, right? Talking about the reacceleration of inflation, talking about how the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates six or seven times. Now, maybe it's just one or two. And then also talking about the just tragic war happening around the world. So as we kind of turn now to our question and answer segment of the show, I just want to encourage people, again, think about some of the specific key terms we mentioned here.

Right. Federal funds rate, Jerome Powell, CPI, and, you know, other things like that that you can then kind of keep in your back pocket your watch list rather, to be typing in on Google maybe once a month or once a quarter to just make sure that you are up to date on what's happening and what's moving your portfolio every single day, month and quarter as well. Yeah, and I want to add one more piece to that. Thank you for that, Austin. We preach every day throughout all of our educational products, active management of your money.

Robert Croke
This is exactly why times like this today, as you listen to this episode, why you can't have an advisor, you can't have a mentor, and you can't just have a set it and forget it mindset when it comes to your money. Because in times like this, just like it was with COVID and some of the other tragedies we've had in the recent years, you have to be actively understanding what the macro economics and what the conditions are in the markets so you can make adjustments in real time. That's why podcasts, like the rich Habits podcast are so, so important for all of you, is because we give you that information and our thoughts in real time so you can make the necessary adjustments because you might have some advisor that's just worried about his golf game and his whiskey collection and he might not be keeping an eye on all of this like Austin and I and our teams do each and every day. So it's so, so important to understand that. And this, again, is not us telling you you need to take action, right?

Austin Hankwitz
We're not telling you that you need to sell everything and run for the hills and go buy ammunition and food. What we are saying is this is a great opportunity to learn more about the things that are moving your portfolio every single week, month and quarter. And if we can be the people to educate you as to what those things are and how important they are for you, that's awesome. That's what we want to do. What a great episode, Robert.

I'm super excited about this one. I hope that a lot of people listening right now learn about what's going on year to date, why the markets were up so much, why they're down a little bit, what's causing sort of this volatility behind the scenes with inflation, the Fed, and geopolitical uncertainty, and what they can do to learn more about it. So I just, I'm really excited about this episode. Me too. And before we jump into the Q and A, let's hear a little bit from our sponsor, Austin.

Robert Croke
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It was simple. Art investing is materially different from investing in other markets. But so far, each of Masterwork's 21 exits have delivered a profit. Now, as we all know, past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. But so far, Masterworks investors have realized annual net returns of 14.6%, 16.4%, and 17.6%, among many others.

Austin Hankwitz
Over 920,000 users have signed on. But our listeners can skip the waitlist and get started today by going to Masterworks dot art rich habits. Again, that's Masterworks dot art a r t rich habits. Now, as we get into the question and answer segment of the show, Robert, our first question comes from CJ. CJ says, hey guys, I'm hoping this might make the Q and a segment of the podcast.

Well, CJ, congrats. It did. I'm sure there are a good bit of millennials in a similar position. My mom is approaching retirement age and she lives in her home alone in Florida. She's considering moving back to Philadelphia, where I live, and if she does, the question is, what's the best way to maximize her home for wealth generation?

We definitely don't want to sell it, and I've sold her on the idea of renting it out, but my problem is, I'm not sure where to start in the process. Would it even be smart to use a rental management company, or should I try to do all this myself? Any insight from you guys would be awesome. Robert, I only have one rental property and it's right next door to me, so I don't have any management or companies. It's pretty straightforward in my experience here, but you have more experience when it comes to rental real estate and commercial real estate.

So why don't you walk CJ through your perspective on a situation? I look at it this way. If it's just one property. I think you can manage it remotely, and I would at least try that for the first six months to a year and see how it goes. The key for you, like anything now in the real estate market, is using proper tools.

Robert Croke
You're going to want to get a couple cameras, you're going to want to get a ring doorbell. You're going to want to use like rentometer or in a go, one of the apps that you can use to look for the right tenant and to get your payments through. There's just so many tools out there right now that are great to help you keep an eye on things. You could have these cameras just on the exterior so you can keep an eye on the property, make sure that they're mowing the lawn and doing all those things. But I would start by doing it on your own at first and then look later if you have problems to then hiring a management company.

But I don't see a reason why you can't handle it yourself using the tools that I discussed, and just do it all on your own and keep the money to yourself. So, Robert, let's say CJ was really getting started here. He's like, okay, mom's moved out. How should CJ go to, one, find tenants, and then two, what's the application process like? Where does he get a contract?

Austin Hankwitz
I mean, walk him through the step by step process of going from zero to one as it relates to his first rental property. Yeah, you nailed it. Zillow, Redfin. There's so many different ways you can market it. You could put a sign in the yard and then use one of these rentometers or one of these apps to handle the application process.

Robert Croke
To handle the contracting process, you might want to bring in if you know a local lawyer that can do the lease agreement for you. But there's so many templates out there for lease agreements that you can literally just grab a template, put in the necessary information and the clauses you want within this rental property. All of this can be done by you very easily and very inexpensively. And then you're up and running, and it's just all about tenant selection. You want to try and have it on auto pay, if you can, and just make it as simple as possible for you so it doesn't become a job.

That's the problem so many people do is they'll get into the rental business and have three, four, five rentals, and then it's a job. And not always is the cash flow there to constitute all the work. And that's when you might want to look at a management company. But just for this one, I think you'll do just fine. And then last question, Robert.

Austin Hankwitz
As people think about sort of screening for tenants, what should they keep an eye out for? What should they know as, like, good versus bad? I mean, especially if it's this guy's first time, you're going to want to. Look for, what's the credit score? What's their criminal?

Robert Croke
You want to do a background check, very inexpensive to do. And then also make sure that their income level is at least three times the rental amount you're trying to get, because you want to make sure that they can sustainably afford the rent that you're asking because of the fact that so many people live beyond their means, and you don't want to have somebody that maybe has seasonal work or someone that's living beyond their means, and you don't know if they're qualified financially to take on this house. CJ, I hope that helped answer your question. Man. Our next question comes from.

Austin Hankwitz
I think it might be R. Silly J. She asks, I have $100,000 sitting in a high yield savings account I'm not sure what to do with. I could take the whole 100,000 and go invest it into the markets, or I can use it as a down payment on a $750,000 home. Now, what's cool about this home is I have instant equity because my company is giving me a $60,000 discount on my next mortgage.

Wow. That's a pretty cool company perk. However, my monthly payment with a 6.5% interest rate would be over $5,000, representing 45% of my take home pay. So should I take this hundred thousand dollars and invest it, or should I use it as a way to bring down my monthly payment, representing closer to 30% of my take home pay? So, Robert, should she take the money and just go invest it in the markets?

Should she use it as a larger down payment on a $750,000 home? What should she be thinking about right now? Well, this is a whole lot of good and a whole lot of bad wrapped up in a really small question. Let's start here. Why do we need to buy a $750,000 home?

Robert Croke
That seems crazy. And I know it's Colorado Springs and prices are high, but I'm assuming the 60k discount that you're getting towards the mortgage would apply if you got a $600,000 home or a $500,000 home. So that's where I'd start. I'd love to know that more so than anything, because that would get you down into that safe range of your debt to income ratio. If you could use the 60,000 towards a lesser expensive home, that's where I'd start.

You definitely, definitely do not want to be buying a home that represents 45% of your debt to income ratio. That is just setting you up for lifestyle creep at its worst place because you're never going to be able to save in the future. I'd love to see you get a $500,000 home up to maybe 600. Use the 60,000 down against the mortgage to keep your mortgage in line with your debt to income ratio. Keep the hundred thousand dollars, get that invested in the market and diversified so you're not housebroke in the coming years.

Austin Hankwitz
I love that answer. Robert, I'm right there with you. I mean, she's sitting on a hundred thousand dollars, her 1st 100k, as we like to call it. And you put that to work, you're off to the races. Your net worth is going to explode over the next seven to ten years because you have this money invested.

Assuming you do what Robert says, you can get that 500,000, $600,000 house. You get the $60,000 discount. So let's call it $440,000. Well, now we're talking about a monthly mortgage rate that might be closer to 3800 or $4,000 a month, which is probably not going to get you to that perfect under 30% that you want to be at, but it's going to give you a lot more flexibility than where you're at right now. So really good question.

Araceli. Araceli, again, sorry, I don't know how to pronounce your name, but we hope that this answer had helped. And I want to bring something up that I just looked up while you were breaking that down. The median home price in Colorado Springs right now, as of March of 2024, is 549,000. So that puts you well within the range we're talking about for a nice home.

Robert Croke
Colorado Springs is beautiful, and then you can keep within the debt to income ratio that we want you to in that 30% to 32%, and you'll be well on your way to building wealth. Evan, what a great answer. Robert, our last question comes from my rene S. Myrene says, I'm 51 and I just opened a Roth IRA after listening to you guys. And I'm so excited.

Austin Hankwitz
Let's go. My rene. Congratulations. I love it. I love it.

She said, I thought my four hundred one k and four hundred three b were enough, but you guys have convinced me otherwise. Now I've started to move money into the index funds you all have discussed. However, the stock market is red, and I've lost 3% on my total investment. I'm investing 15% to 20% of my take home pay every single month. The question is, do I stop investing this money until we're back in the green, or do I continue to buy more of these index funds despite my investment being in the red?

Robert, I know this question kind of seems, like really easy to us because we just know, and we just talked about this on the pod. But I want you to answer this, because this is very much an emotional question. It's very much a mindset question. You know, when you see negative on your screen, you want to stop. So I don't blame my rene here for asking it.

But Robert, go ahead and answer my reading question. It is 100% educational and mindset. And Myrene, great question. We totally understand the emotions, but I'm going to break it down to help you in the future of what to do. We always talk about when in doubt, zoom out.

Robert Croke
And earlier in the podcast, we talked about the S and P 500, which would be represented in the Voo fund you mentioned. And in the last 45 years, it has only had nine down years. So to keep that in perspective, do stock markets always go up and to the right and we just make profit every single year? No, but over time we do. And that is why the voos of the world and the QQQs of the world generally average over 10% a year, year in and year out.

So do I think you should sit on the sideline and time the market? I don't think that's ever a good strategy. And anyone that tells you that's a good strategy doesn't know what they're talking about. When we see these corrections and we have these downturns, they are opportunities for you to save money for your entry points. That is why we talk about dollar cost averaging so much.

It means that you're going to be putting that money in, whether it's bi weekly or monthly, every single month. At the same time, hopefully, you get it automated and you're not worried about the price action on a daily or a weekly timeframe. And you also have to look at it this way. If we were to go into some crazy downturn in the market, you'd hear it from us first. We would be warning you and shouting from the mountaintops of any fears we would see we're not there yet.

We rarely. Another point to think about, too, here for everyone listening today is we rarely have a down stock market year in an election cycle. So keep that in mind as well, because 2023 was a banner market for the stock markets and the crypto markets. And I still believe with this volatility, we will end up finishing the year strong in the stock and crypto markets in 2024. And with that being said to Robert, I want to make sure that my reading here understands she's investing into index funds like the s and P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 inside of her Roth Ira.

Austin Hankwitz
She's 51 years old. She probably wants to retire at 65, so that gives her 14 good years of investing. Assuming she invests that $7,000 maximum every single year for the rest of the next 14 years, she'll have totally contributed about $99,000 toward this account. However, because like you said, stocks go up over long periods of time. That account that you put $99,000 into, Myrene, should be worth about a quarter million dollars, right?

250,000. So that is $150,000 of profit inside of the account. Because you buy on the red days, the green days, the up days, the down days, you buy, it's going in circles. You go left to right, you're buying all the time because that's what dollar cost averaging is. And that's why it's so important we know where we're going.

We'll be investing for 14 more years. Don't be worried about a 3% drawback. Everyone. Thank you so much for tuning in to this episode of the Rich Habits podcast. Don't forget, we are still hosting the direct indexing webinar.

We move the event back to May 8 at 04:00 p.m. Eastern time. We had some people say, wait a second, I'm busy that day. You only gave me a two week heads up. Austin, what's going on, guys?

I need a little bit more time to call out of work or whatever. So we moved it back to May 8, 04:00 p.m. Eastern time, and we've already got 250 people signed up for this. We only have a thousand seats. We sold out literally the last two times we've done these webinars, Robert, so people do not wait, do not hesitate.

Drop in your email address. There's going to be a link in the description below. Just click sign up for the event. Save my spot. It's right there.

Make sure you're joining that. It's going to be a lot of fun. We'll talk about how people can save so much money on taxes with direct indexing through a platform called Frack. It's going to be an awesome, awesome event. Yeah, I'm excited about it as well because we're always expanding the educational base that we provide everyone.

Robert Croke
And I think this is a really good one because we always talk about it's not what you make, it's what you keep. And this is just another thing that no one's talking about that we're going to break down for each and every one of you. You know, the last webinar had a couple thousand people. I think this one will do the same. And it's just all about making sure to put as much money in all of your pockets as we can and help you optimize in your wealth building journeys.

So that brings us to the end of today's episode and a quick announcement from me. The money mindset wealth building summit is inching near. It will be this weekend, the 26th and 27th in St. Petersburg, Florida. If you can't attend the event, there is a virtual component and it is recorded.

So if you're busy on that day, on Saturday the 27th, you can watch it whenever you'd like. And the link for the event and all of the details are in the show notes. Thanks everyone, and have a great start to your week.

Austin Hankwitz
Thanks everyone, and have a great start to your week.

61: Three Reasons the Stock Market Could Go Down in 2024

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1: Introduction to Economic Indicators

2: Detailed Analysis of Inflation and Interest Rates

3: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact

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