Primary Topic
This episode of "Pod Save America" discusses Donald Trump's political maneuvers and his impact on the Republican Party, alongside a critique of Nikki Haley's shifting stance on Trump.
Episode Summary
Main Takeaways
- Trump’s rally in a predominantly Democratic area is analyzed as a strategic move to garner support from minority voters.
- Nikki Haley's contradictory criticisms and support of Trump highlight the complicated dynamics within the Republican Party.
- The episode humorously integrates pop culture, with a nod to John Lovett’s participation in "Survivor," paralleling it with political survival tactics.
- Biden’s policies aimed at improving healthcare and education are contrasted with Trump’s more divisive political strategies.
- The discussion extends into the effectiveness of political ads and the strategic positioning of candidates in appealing to diverse voter bases.
Episode Chapters
1: Opening Discussion
The hosts open with a discussion on Trump's rally aimed at showing strength among minority voters, juxtaposed with Biden's policy-driven week. Noteworthy is the blend of serious analysis and light-hearted banter. Jon Favreau: "Trump's attempt to woo voters in the Bronx seems like a desperate move." Dan Pfeiffer: "Biden’s focus on policies like tackling Ticketmaster shows his commitment to addressing everyday issues."
2: Nikki Haley’s Stance
This segment dives deep into Nikki Haley's public denunciation followed by an endorsement of Trump, showcasing the often contradictory nature of political alliances. Dan Pfeiffer: "It's fascinating how Nikki Haley flips her stance, offering a textbook example of political survival."
3: Lovett on Survivor
A surprising twist in the discussion involves John Lovett's participation in "Survivor," humorously used to discuss political strategies and personal resilience. Jon Favreau: "Lovett’s stint on Survivor might just be the perfect metaphor for navigating the treacherous waters of American politics."
Actionable Advice
- Understand the political landscape: Keep informed about the candidates’ policies and historical actions.
- Critical analysis of political statements: Scrutinize the consistency of political figures’ statements over time.
- Engage in community discussions: Participate in or initiate discussions on political matters in your community to foster a better understanding.
- Fact-check information: Always cross-verify political claims, especially during election seasons.
- Participate in voting: Exercise your right to vote, which is fundamental in shaping the political landscape.
About This Episode
The world gets some clues about the "special project" that's keeping Lovett away from the show, Nikki Haley abandons her principles and endorses Trump. With head-to-head polling showing a race locked in place, Trump and Biden spar over who deserves the support of Black voters. Then, former prosecutor Andrew Weissmann stops by to talk with Jon and Dan about where Trump's Manhattan trial stands ahead of closing arguments and jury deliberations.
People
Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer
Companies
None
Books
None
Guest Name(s):
None
Content Warnings:
None
Transcript
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Speaker B
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University of Washington Professional and Continuing Education
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Speaker C
She's right there in Massachusetts.
Speaker B
Mom, I literally just got the job.
Speaker C
Not everything is as simple as selling your car with Kelley blue book instant cash offer. Price it. Fixit. Trade it, sell it. Kbb.com dot welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
Dan Pfeiffer
I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
Speaker C
On today's show, Donald Trump caps off another crazy week of chaos with a rally in the South Bronx in an attempt to show strength with voters of color in a deep blue city. Joe Biden spent his week taking on Ticketmaster, canceling more student debt and helping more veterans get healthcare. But he's still running a few points behind Trump with less than six months to go. We're going to talk about why Sam Alito is in trouble for a second MAGA flag hanging at his second home. And later, former prosecutor Andrew Weissman stops by to give his take on the Manhattan trial as the case heads to the jury. But first, we have an update on the infamous reality show star who dominates all of our political discussions and will soon face judgment from a jury of his peers. Let's listen.
Dan Pfeiffer
Every survivor story begins with an empty page.
It's up to the players to leave their mark.
Speaker C
People look at me as an underdog. That's Miss Delaware or whatever. She has nothing more to her. And I'm like, I'm a big dog. Woof.
Dan Pfeiffer
I have no outdoor skills.
Speaker E
What am I doing here?
Dan Pfeiffer
I went camping as a cub scout. I threw up and went home.
Speaker C
Eat, pray, lovett, what are we?
There it is. John Lovett. John Lovett appears to be on this season of Survivor.
Dan Pfeiffer
Based on all the information we have, that seems to be the case.
I would just say that.
Speaker C
Wow. Yeah. What do you got, Dan?
Dan Pfeiffer
I would just say many people have argued that in a critical election year where democracy hangs in the balance, the best place for love would be on an island with no access to the Internet.
Speaker C
Dan, you know, I'm sure he is busy doing some deep canvassing. No doubt. Every other contestant is from a swing state. He's just out there trying to get every vote. You know, sure, for the tribal council, but also for Joe Biden. Also for Joe Biden.
And look, we are more than happy to hold down the fort until and if he gets back, you know, we don't have not a lot going on. It's just a new baby in the vtor household. Couple pods to do, little political news company to run. Other than that, we're good.
Dan Pfeiffer
You have a relatively new baby.
Speaker C
Yeah. You know, it's very. It's a chill time.
Dan Pfeiffer
I've done pods of America Monday, Wednesday, Friday this week, which I think you've probably done. You've probably done before, but that's called hitting for the cycle.
Speaker C
The full Ginsburg. I have spent more time at this microphone than I have in my own bet.
That's what I'm doing. But you know what? He's probably sleeping. Probably sleeping in the forest right now somewhere. I don't know. Where do they sleep?
Dan Pfeiffer
I would admit something I have never seen. The clip of Lovett was the first second of survivor I've seen in my life.
I've never seen a single moment. I am so excited to start. I can't even tell you.
Speaker C
But yeah, I know. I watched the first season back when I was in college.
Dan Pfeiffer
You mean a quarter century ago?
Speaker C
That was a quarter century ago in my mind. Survivor is Richard Hatch, the first winner.
Dan Pfeiffer
Is that the nudist?
Speaker C
Who knows? See a nudist?
I don't know. I cannot. Yes. I'm getting yes from. We have some survivor fans as part of our pod fans. So when this started going around last night, this broke. There's obviously, you could imagine there's a lot of activity in the crooked slack and everyone was joking about all the comments on Twitter and everywhere else and the discord and friends of the pod go sign up. But the comment of the night goes to our fearless pod Save America producer Olivia Martinez, who said, rip Lovett. You would have loved watching everyone react to you being unsurvivor, which, you know, that is. That is the toughest thing. He's just, he's. He's not here to see all the reactions. But anyway, we're pulling for you, pal. We know you can do it.
Dan Pfeiffer
Good luck.
Speaker C
Okay. Back in America, I presume you all remember the republican presidential candidate who made it all the way to the final tribal council this primary season. As a refresher, here's some of Nikki Haley's toughest criticism of Donald Trump over the last year.
Nikki Haley
He is not the same person he was in 2016. He is unhinged. He is more diminished than he was. If you don't know the value of our men and women in uniform, if you don't know the sacrifice that they go through, why should I, as a military spouse in all our military families, trust you to know you're going to keep them out of harm's way. And it's a pattern of losing that. Everything he touches, he loses. We saw it in 2018. We saw it in 2020. We saw it in 2022. How many more times do we have to go back to the same person and say, and then finally decide, maybe he's the problem? Because I know he's the problem.
Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly embrace Trump, privately dread him.
They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party.
They're just too afraid to say it out loud.
Well, I'm not afraid to say the hard truths out loud.
Speaker C
And what's that hard truth now, you may ask?
Nikki Haley
So I will be voting for Trump.
Speaker C
So that was Hailey on Wednesday at the conservative think tank she's running these days. She's always made it fairly clear that she won't be showing up at an endorsement event with Joe Biden, but she had other options. She could continue speaking out about Trump. She could have said that she was going to write in some other Republican. She could have not said anything at all about who she's voting for. But, you know, I guess in the end, she just wanted to be part of the unified Reich.
Dan, why do you think she did it?
Dan Pfeiffer
She was always going to do it. She just was. I mean, just, I know briefly, to varying degrees amongst the four of us, deluded ourselves to think she may do something different.
But she said a lot of this very similar stuff about Donald Trump in 2016 and then joined his cabinet. Voting for him is frankly the least she could do. And it, but it's just the reason this was gonna happen, because she is a Republican.
She wants a future in republican politics. That doesn't necessarily mean that she will run for office again, although I'm sure she's deluded herself into thinking she may do that. But if she does not vote, no matter what happens in 2024, if she does not vote for Donald Trump, makes it very, very hard for her to have any sort of say in what happens with this party next, right? Running for something, being in charge of something, being on a board of a company run by Republicans, being in think tanks. Just, this is, this is the price of admission. And so this is what she was going to do. It is. It's just, it's very fitting with what we have seen from Nikki Kaylee over her whole career, other than this, like, brief three month period of fleeting courage and integrity.
Speaker C
I mean, and I will say, though, even then, she said, right between, I think, New Hampshire and South Carolina, she was asked about this. So this was before the South Carolina primary. And she said, I have a lot of concerns about Trump regaining the presidency. I have even more concerns about Joe Biden being president. So that was a bit of a tell right there. Like, so I like that. I never thought that she was gonna, like, endorse Joe Biden. I mostly thought this was gonna happen. I did think there was a small chance she would just, again, not say anything. Could have just not. Or done the, like, you know, what we find annoying, but it was like the. I'm writing in, you know, Ronald Reagan or something like that. Like, she could have. She could have done that, too. It's just like. And it makes me think, let's just take the, Paul, put the politics aside. Let's say we're just too cynical about her political motives, which I don't think we're being too cynical.
Dan Pfeiffer
No, we're being generous, probably.
Speaker C
Yes, as a thought exercise. Look, I do think she might, she might genuinely believe that she has more concerns about Joe Biden than Donald Trump. And if she does, that, to me, is like a core part of the problem with so many of these republican politicians, like your Chris Sununu's and Nikki Haley's and all the rest, it's like they have either diluted themselves into thinking that mainstream democratic policy, which is what Joe Biden represents, he is a mainstream, moderate democratic president, that that's more dangerous than a lunatic who may never leave the White House.
Or they've deluded themselves into thinking, you know what, Donald Trump, he's not that bad. He's bad, but he's not that. He's not that dangerous. But, like, either way, it's like she has said basically the opposite throughout the course of the whole campaign.
Yeah.
Dan Pfeiffer
Like, is she full of shit now or was she full of shit then? That's the question.
Speaker C
Right.
Dan Pfeiffer
But at one point, she was full of shit.
Speaker C
If you call someone unfit, unqualified to be president of the United States, like, I just don't know how you come back from that and say, yeah, I'm gonna vote for them. Cause why? They're unfit. But you don't like Joe Biden's policies. It's pathetic. It's pathetic. One point, she said, every single thing that Donald Trump has said or put on tv has been a lie.
Okay? Trump would side with a dictator who kills his opponents. Trump's gonna side with a madman who's made no bones about the fact that he wants to destroy America. He's got my vote. He's got my vote.
It's just, it's unreal. So even though she's been out of the race for a few months now, she's still getting, obviously, 15% to 20% of the vote in the republican primaries. We still have republican primaries, all primaries. They're still happening. Do you think her announcement makes it any harder to convince the Haley primary voters to vote for Biden?
Dan Pfeiffer
I think every time a former critic of Trump comes out and says, you're gonna vote for Trump, it makes it that much harder for people who have concerns to break with their party. Right. Just regular voters. Right. Whether that's Nikki Haley, Bill Barr, Chris Sununu, that's just, it just, it creates more of a permission structure for some of these Republicans to just give in and go with the flow.
Having said that, there is no Nikki Haley movement in this country. Right. Have you ever seen a single Nikki Haley bumper sticker or t shirt in your life? No, never. There are people who are voting for Nikki Haley, but they are not Nikki Haley voters. Right. If their two choices presented to them were Donald Trump and a tin of spam, spam would get, like, double digits like that. Just. That's what it is. She is a imperfect vessel for anti Trump sentiment. So those voters are still available. We're not in a world like you were with Bernie Sanders. Right. Those are Bernie Sanders voters who were voting for him. Right. And what he said to them mattered. His endorsement of Hillary Clinton mattered. When he came of Hillary Clinton, it mattered. Hillary Clinton in 20. There were Hillary Clinton voters in 2008. We ran his primary, Nikki Haley, many of her voters couldn't pick her out of a lineup. That's not what this is. Just think. And so her endorsement of Trump isn't. Doesn't mean that you're gonna, like, move en masse, like, well, our leader, Nikki, said we must go, so we will go. It's not gonna work that way. But I still think. And our friends of the bull works so long. We made this point that every time a Republican does this, it makes it easier for other Republicans to fall in line. So that's negative. But those voters, those Haley voters that are still showing up are still available to Joe Biden. They're still in his persuadable universe, no matter who Nikki Haley says she's going to vote for.
Speaker C
Well, and not only are they available to Joe Biden, I think what gets overlooked is a lot of these voters could be Republicans who did already vote for Joe Biden in 2020, and they still want to be Republicans. Right. They still want to be registered Republicans. They still want to vote in a republican primary because, you know, there's, every time that Nikki Haley wins 15, 20% in these primaries, there's like, is this good news for Democrats? Does Donald Trump have real problems with, you know, he's not getting 20% of the vote and stuff like that? And a, there's some who will just automatically go and vote for Donald Trump, like, much like Nikki Haley is now doing. There were probably in the open primaries, there were probably a few Democrats who jumped in, and a lot of independents under all, a lot of independents in the open primaries as well. But even in the closed republican primaries, like, there's just a, there's a segment of Republicans, registered Republicans, who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 in every single swing state. So, like, why wouldn't those people vote for Nikki Haley if they're still registered in the Republican Party and not voting in the democratic primary?
Dan Pfeiffer
Yes. What is, we'd have to go through this state by state. But the, and it's a primary electorate versus a general election electorate. But the percentage of primary voters who are voting for Nikki Haley is larger than the percentage of Republicans who voted for Joe Biden by, in some cases, a factor of two or three in some of these states, which is, this is not to say there's been lots of studies that looked at this like there is a trend even in more, with more stable candidates. And Trump of these sort of zombie candidates he's carrying on, of people sort of expressing the raw position. But there is something there, and that is an available universe of voters for Joe Biden, because people who are republican primary voters who voted for Joe Biden, those are the people that he needs to get back. Right? He has lost some of those people. And so that is, there's not a just assumption they're going to vote for him again. He needs to get them.
Speaker C
In fact, the wilderness is back this weekend. We're going to have two episodes drop on Sunday, May 26. And the second episode is all about soft republican voters, two time Trump voters who are down on Donald Trump. Some of them voted for Nikki Haley in the primary and we're going to have none other than Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell on to talk about how to persuade these voters to vote for Joe Biden.
Dan Pfeiffer
That was an excellent organic plug.
Speaker C
Just, wasn't it a good organic plug. I might do another one if I'm feeling good. I might do another one later on.
Dan Pfeiffer
I have one for you later on if you don't nail it. So don't you worry.
Speaker C
All right, perfect. Yeah. So, no, but the point is, I do think there's a lot of the excitement is, I think, a bit misguided because I think some of these are already Biden voters. You're right. He needs to get them. He needs to keep them.
Dan Pfeiffer
We don't need the other voters, we just need the Biden voters.
Speaker C
Right? Well, yeah, we're going to lose some voters, too.
Dan Pfeiffer
We have to replace once we lost. But yes.
Speaker C
Yeah, I think there's a small percentage of those Haley voters who are like, who are still not where Nikki Haley is and are not quite ready to vote for Donald Trump again, but are not quite ready to vote for Joe Biden either. And I think that's going to, they're going to be, they're going to matter a lot in some of these swing states. All right, let's talk about the guy Nikki Haley called unhinged and unqualified. Fresh off the latest instance of Trump playing footsies with nazis, he teamed up with Marjorie Taylor Green to float a conspiracy that Joe Biden tried to have Trump assassinated. He also claimed on Thursday he'll be able to get his pal Vladimir Putin to release Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gurshkovich from prison. But only if Trump wins. Vote for me and Evan will come home because I'm buddies with Vladimir Putin. And also outside his Manhattan criminal trial, Trump said that Justice Juan Mershon hates him because the judge was born in Colombia, which really teed up the Thursday rally in the South Bronx that was part of the campaign's outreach to latino and black voters. The Biden campaign tried to pre butt the rally with a new ad targeted at black voters. Let's listen. I'm Joe Biden and I approve this message.
Speaker E
Of course I hate these people.
Speaker B
Donald Trump disrespecting black folk is nothing new. He was sued for refusing to rent his apartments to black families and called for the execution of five innocent black and brown teenagers.
Speaker E
And it's more than anger, it's hatred.
Speaker B
It's why Trump stood with violent white supremacists, warned of a bloodbath if he loses the next election and if he's president again, vow to be a dictator who wants revenge on his enemies.
Speaker C
Now, who do you think that is?
Speaker E
Of course I hate these people.
Speaker C
So that line, of course I hate these people, comes from a 1989 interview that Trump did with Larry King about the Central park five who were the wrongly accused men of color whom Trump said at the time should be executed. Lots to unpack here, Dan.
With all the things I just mentioned that he has said over the last couple of days, do you think anything Trump said or did this week could cause him problems with voters?
Dan Pfeiffer
In theory, yes. In practice, no.
Speaker C
Yeah.
Dan Pfeiffer
Well, in theory, yes. I mean, yes, it should. In practice, most people who have not made up their mind are not going to hear any of those things. Right? That is the world in which we are living. That is the stage of the campaign we're in. And so could it be a problem? Absolutely. Is it? We're going to see it, like, show up in the polls? No, no.
Speaker C
I do think, like, politics aside, just so people know what happened with the assassination attempt conspiracy. So Trump said he was shown reports that Biden's DOJ authorized the FBI to use deadly force when they raided Mar a Lago for the nuclear secrets he stole that he's now not going to face any accountability for. Because, of course, because he installed a Trump judge who's now just letting him off the hook anyway. Then Marjorie Taylor Greene went a step further and accused Biden and the FBI of planning to assassinate Trump. None of this is true. The report that Trump and Marge are referring to is the DOJ's standard policy limiting the use of force during searches. It was the same exact policy they used both at Mar a Lago and at Biden's home. Same policy.
So I guess Biden was just like, you know, he was authorizing the FBI to also assassinate him, I guess. And so I don't, you know, like you said, I'm sure most people will not hear about this. It is fucking dangerous, right? Telling your followers who have committed political violence in the past, remember January 6, that the president, the government has planned to assassinate you. Like, it's pretty fucking dangerous.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah. Look, I would say I answered your question and maybe a little of.
Speaker C
I asked about the politics.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, you asked about the politics. I answered in the context of persuadable voters. But there's, like, there is consequences for all of these things right there. There is a consequence for the statement about the Wall Street Journal reporter. Right. Like, how does Russia interpret that? Does that mean now that they're just going to wait because they think they can get something for him in next year if Trump wins?
Speaker C
Right.
Dan Pfeiffer
So that means that he will stay in a dangerous situation in a russian prison for longer because Trump can't keep his yap shut. Would accusing the Biden DOJ of trying to murder him is something that could very obviously lead to violence, as we have seen on so many occasions with the things Trump says. And so will that move the polls? No. But does it make America more dangerous? Yes. Is it yet another example of why he should not be allowed within 100 million mile of the White House? Absolutely.
Speaker C
So I love to get your thoughts on that Biden ad. There was also a radio ad as well they put out.
I was thought it was interesting that they went back that far to 1989 and the Central park five in the ad. Just cause I think there's just a wealth of horribly racist, both shit that Donald Trump has said and sort of, he has four years of a presidency where I don't think he, the presidency was very good for or to black Americans. I was also interested in both the radio ad and the television ad. They hit the bloodbath remark, they hit the dictator stuff. I don't know. I thought that was just, that must be, that must be polling well with them. I guess the Biden people must see that that's polling well.
Dan Pfeiffer
Maybe. I think I would bet that that video ad, I don't know. We don't yet know where it's airing or if it's airing. It's probably seems like a digital ad is more a media play for this specific rally in New York. The reason to do the Central park five is because it is New York. You know, one of the Central park five is now a city councilman in New York. Like this. Like this. There is a, if you, if this ad were running in another part of the country, it may not mean anything, but in New York, this is one of the biggest stories of the last 50 years and continues to be talked about this day because of Yusuf Salaam and his role in that and his, now his role in the city council. But ultimately, the message feels a lot like the message that Democrats have been using against Trump since the beginning of the 2016 campaign that has not shown any impact. And in fact, the numbers with voters of color have gotten worse over time, not better. And so I'm not, I'd be interested to know what the strategy behind some of the specific mentions in there, maybe the dictator thing, polls, but the calling out Trump, Trump's racism should be called out. It should always be called out. But that is, that is a necessary but not sufficient argument to win, win over voters of any stripe. I think we've seen.
Speaker C
Yeah, for sure. And I imagine that as the campaign goes on, that some of the ads that they'll put real money behind, especially if they're trying to target black voters with those ads, will talk about Donald Trump wanting mandatory stop and frisk in every city and the country.
Or maybe they'll remind people that he wanted the military to shoot protesters in the legs who were protesting George Floyd's murder. He wants to make sure police officers can never be sued for killing unarmed black people or anyone. And then also, of course, like, if you ask black voters what they care about most, it's much like all voters, right? Cost of living, right? And Donald Trump wants to take away health care, wants them to pay more for prescriptions, pay higher taxes, just like he does white Americans, just as he does Latino Americans, Asian Americans. So I would imagine that they're going to probably make those arguments as the, as the campaign goes on.
Dan Pfeiffer
The Biden campaign actually has a track of ads they've had up. I don't know if they're up right now, but they've been up multiple times this year targeted at black voters. And it's a lot of economic stuff, in particularly things Joe Biden has delivered for the black community.
Lowest black unemployment in history, additional funding for historically black colleges, universities, a whole bunch of things, including the Affordable Care act.
Speaker C
We're recording this before the rally, but what do you think of the Trump campaign's decision to organize a big crowd in a deep blue neighborhood that's majority non white?
Dan Pfeiffer
That's kind of scary smart.
Speaker C
Yeah, I was gonna say, like, I wonder. It'll obviously get, it's gonna get press attention, right? I mean, that's a. And it's New York, so it's gonna get a lot of attention, apparently, the young Republican Club and the various republican organizations in New York City, which, by the way, we've talked about this before, but they're, they're as right wing as they get.
Very fascist adjacent. They have been, like, working overtime, organizing, like, every Trump supporter they can find in New York to get to this event. So I wouldn't be surprised if it was a big crowd. But, um, yeah, it seems like, uh, it's, it's a smart thing to do.
Dan Pfeiffer
It's like politics is about identity. Right? And about, and people really want to vote with their peers. And if you, you create this impression that there are large numbers of, it's a false impression, even based on the polls. But if you create this impression, there are large numbers of black voters and latino voters who are saying, I am for Trump. That is creating an environment that makes it more welcoming for others who may be angry at Joe Biden for some reason disenchanted with politics, more broadly, mad at the Democrats or whatever it is, to give them a reason to think and think more seriously about going over to vote for Republicans, something that seemed absolutely impossible not too many years ago.
Speaker C
Yeah, it made me think that Joe Biden should go to, like, small towns and rural areas with both white voters and black voters who are often in rural areas and do events there, because you sort of create the same permission structure for the geographic divide, which is quite big in politics right now.
Dan Pfeiffer
I mean, that was the thing that Obama used to do all the time. We did a lot of events in rural areas, places you would never expect to see someone named Barack Hussein Obama. Right? He spoke at a megachurch in 2008, even though most of the people in the room did not agree with him, probably wouldn't vote for him to send a message that he, his campaign was open to them.
Speaker C
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Speaker C
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All right, so this is the part of the show where we note that despite all the latest Trump craziness. If the election were held today, he would probably win. He's got a one point lead in the national polling average. He's got a slightly bigger lead in the swing states. Lot of new high quality polling came out this week and basically the race hasn't moved, even though it's now late May, Trump is on trial and Biden is on the air in every swing state.
This has unsurprisingly, led to another round of punditry that I'm sure the Biden team is super excited about.
Lots of smiles in Wilmington overall last week, I'm sure. Trigger warning. We're about to mention Ezra Klein's latest column. In case any of you feel the need to skip ahead, you want to just skip right to the Sam Alito second flag. No worries. We're going to talk about Ezra Klein. I thought it was interesting because Ezra offered seven theories about why Trump is currently ahead.
One, the polls are wrong. Two, it's the media's fault. Three, it's a bad time to be an incumbent. Four, voters are angry about high prices and high interest rates. Five, voters think Biden's too liberal. Six, voters think Biden's too old. And seven, democrats aren't defining Trump in the most effective way. Ezra doesn't believe every one of those headings, but that's sort of the theories that he threw out there that are, that are being talked about.
And it's true. Those, those conversations are conversations about some combination of those theories are taking place among democratic operatives, activists, strategists, all trying to understand what is driving Trump's battleground advantage at this stage in the campaign.
What did you think of the piece, and did any of those theories stand out to you?
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, I thought it was interesting because it really was. The summary of the ongoing conversation that we've been having with each other on this podcast, off with other people we know from politics, from any, there's just everyone just trying to figure out what the hell is going on here, because it is, if you like, just kind of, like, take a step back and you just, like, wrote it as a, you know, political Science 101 midterm question, right? You have a candidate trying to violently overthrow the election. He's currently on trial for a felony and is facing 88 federal felony indictments.
Should that candidate be up by one? The answer is no. So it's, it's a hard thing to explain, and I do appreciate that. Ezra kind of knocked down some of the, what I think are the, the coping mechanisms that some Democrats have used the idea that the polls are wrong. I mean, maybe they are, but there's no evidence of that. And in the past, when the polls have been wrong in presidential elections, they've been wrong in a way that's not good for us. Right?
Speaker C
There's that. And I also think, look, I mean, the polls in 2022, I know, everyone's like, oh, red wave. The polls in 2022 were more accurate than any cycle since 1998. Now, that's a midterm. What about a presidential? Last two presidentials, the polls have been off. Like you said, they have been overestimating democratic support for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Not under, but who knows? Maybe they could be off again. It's presidential races, different, different electorate. But the polls for Democrats not named Biden are quite good right now. That's the challenge. And so some of the same polls that are showing Joe Biden behind are showing Ruben Gallego, Tammy Baldwin, pick your Senate candidate, pick your governor ahead. And so that, that's the challenge with the polls. Again, though, polls, of course, could all be wrong. There could be a systemic error. That's something that has to do with just Donald Trump and just Joe Biden. Who knows? But I don't know if we should all hang our hats on that.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, it's possible. And there is, like, there's a sense that they're all over the map, right? We had a poll, we had the New York Times, which had Biden up double digits in Nevada. We had a poll, you know, a Bloomberg morning console poll that had it tied in that state.
But there is an internal logic to all of them. Right? When you look at all the polls, it is, it's very clear that Trump is doing a little bit better nationally than he did before with a certain set of number of groups. And that's kind of consistent across all the polls. So whatever the margin is there, we kind of know where we are, and it's not where we want to be, right? It doesn't mean we can't get to a better place. That's where we are. I think we have massively overcomplicated this election in our head. Like, if this was Joe Biden running against Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, you know, pick a random Republican, we wouldn't even bother trying to explain it. It'd be so obvious. People aren't happy with the economy. They cite the economy, in inflation in particular, as the number one issue deciding their vote. In the air Times poll. Three times as many people pick that issue as any other issue. And Donald Trump has a 20 point advantage on the issue. Like, that's it. Like, that is the explanation. All the other things Ezra mentions, like, yes, is Biden's age. Does that not help things? Absolutely. Right. Is being an incumbent in a time with where people really want major change and are unsasserved, the country a problem? Absolutely. Is that fueled by people being mad about inflation? Absolutely. But I think it's like the polls are telling us very clearly what the problem is, and we should. But it's because Donald Trump is such a unique and odious figure that we sort of have to complicate it in our head.
It's people mad about the economy, they're mad about high prices, they're blaming the incumbent, and they think the other guy is better. And he has an advantage because he is not a blank slate to them. He happens to be the person who was in charge of the economy by pure chance when eggs were cheaper. Like, that's what it is. Right.
Speaker C
And I want to dig into the economic theory, too, because I have, you know, it's popped up every now and then. But I have seen, um, the. A very popular theory is that the media has screwed this up. And it's the media. And Ezra talks about this. It's the media's fault is one explanation that I've seen a lot of Democrats and media critics sort of glom onto. And, you know, there's two flavors of this. One is the media is not adequately communicating to people the threat that Donald Trump poses. Right. But just in terms of where the economy is, the complaint is that the media is not giving Joe Biden enough credit for all of the objectively good economic statistics out there. And there are many. Right? Unemployment low, stock market doing great. Right. So there's plenty of inflation has come down. But on the media. And Ezra makes this point, and we cited this poll back when it came out. It was an NBC poll. Biden leads by 49 points among people who get most of their news from newspapers, 20 points among people who get most of their news from network television news. Ten points among people who get most of their news from digital news sites. Those are like, he is winning by huge margins, those voters. Where is Joe Biden losing? People who get most of their news from social media, from cable news. Sure. Fox is a big part of that. Google, YouTube. And he's losing by the biggest margin of all among voters who don't follow political news at all. Trump is winning. People who do not follow any political news do not look at the horrible headlines that the New York Times has decided to run with or some, you know, CNBC on the economy, 26 points.
Trump is winning those voters by. And I do think that the incumbent issue and the economic issues are also tied together because, you know, and Ezra sort of isn't as convinced about this because he's like, well, you know, incumbent democratic governors are really popular right now, but I think that that's not a real apples to apples comparison with Joe Biden. I think the best apples to apples comparison is Joe Biden and other world leaders, and other world leaders who are incumbents are very unpopular right now, much like Joe Biden. And that's, it doesn't matter, like, what political persuasion they are, what party they are in their country. It's because they have all been incumbents.
Through the inflationary backlash, we got to Covid to the pandemic. And so inflation didn't just hit the United States, it hit everywhere. And every single most incumbents all over the world are struggling with their popularity because of inflation. And that's not because the media told people that, like, you know, they didn't tell people that the economy was good enough. It's because prices are still high. And when you notice the prices are high not just in the grocery store, but housing and, and cars, which are, like, two of the biggest purchases people make, that's going to annoy people. It's just going to, you know, and, like, I don't, I don't, I don't understand why it's a big mystery to people why, um, so many voters are upset about the economy, but it seems to be.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah. I mean, like, several things can be true at the same time. Right? It can be true that the media is not giving Joe Biden enough credit for the economy and has a lot of bad headlines. But also, it's also true that that's not.
Speaker C
Separate that from how much effect it's had.
Dan Pfeiffer
Right, exactly. And it's also true that Joe Biden has done a phenomenal job on the economy, inherited an absolute shit show from his predecessor. We are doing better than the rest of the world in terms of growth and inflation and because of a lot of the decisions Joe Biden has made, the things he was able to accomplish. But that does not change the fact that people are still unhappy. And we are now at a point, we are less than six months before the election that this is the environment this election is going to take place in is this political environment. Right.
A few months ago, there was a sense that maybe the economy was feeling much better. People were feeling better about it. We were going to be sort of on an upswing as the, as the election happened.
Maybe that could still happen, but we can't, that we can't assume that, right. That we should assume that this is what it's going to look like six months now. We have to have our, have strategies that account for that.
Speaker C
What did you talk about any of these, any of these polls on polar coaster this week? What did you, what do you think?
Dan Pfeiffer
We did not talk about these on polar coaster. I'm so glad you brought up. We talked about a couple other things. One thing we talked about is a very fascinating poll about which celebrities would be most influential with young voters.
Speaker C
That was a wild list.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yes, I sent you the list. You should check out. It is, it really runs against what a lot of people think and really fascinating numbers on Taylor Swift. We talked about a whole bunch of different polls. The other thing we did talk about is we, we got a lot of questions from people who are basically looking at the New York Times poll, this polls that we just talked about saying, is it all over? Are we screwed? Panic, panic, panic. And I made my best case for why democrats should have optimism going forward, a realistic sense of optimism. But this went through what the numbers say about what the path forward looks for Democrats and why, why Joe Biden has a very clear path to win this race. It may be a narrow path, but it is a very clear path. So that's what you should check out.
Speaker C
And I will say, you know, when I first started reading Ezra's column, the headline made me think that he was going to give a lot of advice on how to turn this around. He did not give as much advice, which, you know, he's not a democratic strategist. Everyone's got advice for Joe Biden and his campaign. I'm sure they have plenty of it. We've given it to. I actually think that, like, what's more important at this stage is what we all do on this. Like, we have agency, too. You say this all the time. And again, I'm going to get, this is my second organic plug. This is what we're doing on the wilderness this season is that, hopefully all of you listening, first of all, hopefully you've all signed up@votesaveamerica.com. 2024 and are going to go volunteer and I'm going to talk to voters. And, you know, you'll get lists of voters to talk to from the campaign, whether it's texting on the phone or knocking on doors, but also one of the most effective ways of persuading people is to persuade the people in your life, because those are the people who trust you most. And so what we're going to do is go through each sort of demographic group of voters that Biden needs to win over, or at least is like, you know, on the edge of the, the, the winning 2020 coalition and talk to you about what the most effective messages are to actually persuade them based on a lot of focus groups and polling that a lot of really smart strategists and pollsters are doing all the time. That's just not getting out to most people.
So that's what we're going to do because I think we can give all the advice we want to the Biden campaign. There's only so much we can control. It's going to be up to Joe Biden, it's going to be up to his campaign. But that does not absolve us of the responsibility to do whatever we can to save democracy and talk to as many people as we can. Because, you know, it's a future that we're gonna all have to live through much longer, probably, than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. So it's like, you can tell.
Well, and our kids. Right? Like, our kids will live through it longer than I will, I hope. All right.
Dan Pfeiffer
Okay. All right. Just move on. It's like transition to the next topic.
Speaker E
Yes.
Speaker C
It's just not like so much of this is through the lens of, like, I want to punish Joe Biden or Joe Biden fucked up this election because he did this or I'm out, or even, I don't want, I want to punish Donald Trump or what. It's really not about them. It's about us. It is about us and our future, and it's about the people, you know, and the future they're going to have, too. So get out there and get working. And, you know, hopefully we can help with the wilderness. Hopefully the polar coaster can help, and also votes of America can help as well. So. All right, before we get to Andrew Weissman's take on the end of Trump's criminal trial, we need to talk about the news that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito got caught again flying a different January 6 related flag at another one of his homes. I have to laugh because what else are you going to do? This flag is called the appeal to heaven flag that appears to have been flying in front of his New Jersey vacation house last summer. The flag dates back to the Revolutionary War and for Tommy and the other philosophy nerds out there. It invokes John Locke's theory of revolution against unjust government.
Just a little fun fact for you, but the equally relevant context is that multiple January 6 rioters waived it, waived this flag at Trump. Stop the steel speech. And during the siege of the Capitol, it's also been used by right wing militias and christian nationalists. And now a Supreme Court justice.
So no comment on the latest freak flag from Sam Alito or his wife Martha Ann, or the Supreme Court. What do you think? Like, is there, is there anything else Congress can do or anyone in a position of authority? Or we just, should there be an investigation or is this just, like, something to keep in mind as we're talking people about their vote choice in November?
Dan Pfeiffer
I think we should investigate it. Absolutely. Let's have a hearing about it. Right there is clear.
Speaker C
But Dick Durbin doesn't seem too, too high on that. Dick Durbin's like, yeah, it's crazy. It's awful. But I don't know. I don't know what a hearing is.
Dan Pfeiffer
Going to get us, you know, attention. That's something that's got value. We should remind people that we have a guy flying a christian nationalist insurrectionist flag over his home while deciding cases that allow the insurrectionist former president to avoid going to prison for said insurrection. I don't know. That seems like something to talk about.
Speaker C
Seems like. Seems. It seems notable. Seems notable. He's got a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court. And if Donald Trump wins, we could get a couple more Sam alitos on the court or young Marlito Anne. Maybe we get Ginny and Martha Ann just to make sure that there's more women on the court.
Dan Pfeiffer
Their grandchildren, their granddaughters will be out there.
Speaker C
That's true. Yeah.
Dan Pfeiffer
Right.
Speaker C
They're way too old. Yeah, we don't want that. We don't want the wives on there. We want the kids.
Dan Pfeiffer
We want 30 year old people who can fly flags.
Speaker C
Oh, my God. It's unbelievable. All right, before we get to Andrew Weissman, two quick things. You may have heard the news that british Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap election for July 4 that will determine whether labor can win control after 14 years of conservative party rule. See, this is what I was talking about. Rishi Sunak, he's, you know, he's right wing politician, very unpopular. Very, very unpopular. We're still not in the predictions business, but here at crooked. But that would certainly make for a happy independence day. Our friends niche and Coco have recorded a special episode of Pod Save the UK to break down why this election is so critical and what we should expect from the next six weeks of campaigning. Listen in the pod Save the UK feed, available wherever you get your podcasts. Also, this Saturday marks one month until the release of the book that Lovett, Tommy and I wrote, democracy or else. How to save America in ten easy steps. Democracy or else is a guide for anyone who wants to get involved in the 2024 election and all of the elections that come after, if there are any. It's a quick read. We made it easy for you with lots of jokes, illustrations. There's some jokes, by the way, this is a plug for the book. There's some jokes that are, I cannot believe made it into the book. They're that crazy. I would buy the book just to read some of these jokes.
Dan Pfeiffer
Buy the book to read the edits I made that were not accepted, which was mostly taking out some of those jokes.
Speaker C
Yeah, Dan tried. I tried. You know, I'll tell you, the person who wouldn't let the jokes be taken out, well, he could be at a tribal council right now. We don't know.
But anyway, I just got the hardcopy. The hardcover came yesterday.
Dan Pfeiffer
It's a good feeling, right?
Speaker C
Yeah, it's great. It was like, wow. And you know what?
It feels thin enough for people like me who don't read a lot of books that it wasn't intimidating, which is even easier.
Dan Pfeiffer
That's good.
Speaker C
So we are getting closer and closer to our pre order goal in hopes of landing on the New York Times bestseller list, which will in turn help more folks discover the book and get inspired to get off the sidelines and get involved. And also, again, we don't want Christy Noem and her fucking dog killer book beating us. We don't want whatever else. I don't know whether right wing loonies are out there with books, but we don't want them at the top of the New York Times bestseller list. We want democracy or else up there.
Dan Pfeiffer
You don't want me beating you. Think of all the shit I'm going to give you. The three of you can't do better than I did.
Speaker C
Oh, my gosh. Well, you know, cricket's donating the profits to support vote Save America and 2024 campaigns. So you're making a difference just by pre ordering. It's a. That's the thing that you order a book, you get to read the book and you get to know that your money is going to vote Save America. It's a win, win win democracy or else is out June 25. But you can pre order now@cricket.com. books or wherever books are sold when we come back. Andrew Weissman.
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Speaker B
It's that time of the year. Your vacation is coming up. You can already hear the beach waves, feel the warm breeze.
Relax and think about work. You really, really want it all to work out while you're away. Monday.com gives you and the team that peace of mind. When all work is on one platform and everyone's in sync, things just flow wherever you are. Tap the banner to go to Monday.com dot.
Nikki Haley
You can start your day off right when you find a professional on Angie to get your plumbing right, first, connect.
Speaker C
With skilled professionals to get all your home projects done well, visit angie.com dot. You can do this. Win you, Angie, that this week in Donald Trump's Manhattan election interference trial, the prosecution and defense rested their cases. Summations will happen next week after the Memorial Day break. And here to guarantee us that Donald Trump will be held accountable and justice will be served is friend of the pod and former prosecutor Andrew Weissman, host of the excellent MSNBC podcast prosecuting Donald Trump. Andrew, welcome back.
Speaker E
Nice to be here. I'll see if I can fulfill that promise.
Dan Pfeiffer
No pressure.
It's only democracy hanging in the balance here.
Speaker E
So I'm going to be rendering a verdict, but at the end of the podcast.
Dan Pfeiffer
Okay, perfect. That's how we set this up.
Speaker C
That's what we're looking for.
Speaker E
Yeah. Actually, you know what? I think I'll save it for, for the prosecuting Donald Trump podcast so we can tee it up. But then fair tease.
Dan Pfeiffer
You could tease it here.
Speaker E
That seems fair. Yeah.
Speaker C
Which is a podcast, by the way. I never miss. I was, I was just listening to it this morning.
Speaker E
Mary McCord is the best.
Dan Pfeiffer
The best.
Speaker C
You guys are great. You really are, both of you. All right, so we know the jury won't start deliberating until next week, but before they can deliberate, the judge needs to give them jury instructions, which the lawyers are supposed to get from the judge any moment now, maybe by the end of today, which is Thursday. Can you talk about what jury instructions are, why they're so critical, and what we know so far about the jury instructions for this case based on sort of some of the arguments we heard when the lawyers were going over the potential instructions with the judge?
Speaker E
Yeah. So this is the part of the case that when you're a trial lawyer, it's the most boring part of the case. And all you're thinking about is your summation and putting that together and crafting that. And then just before you have to do that, you have to meet with a judge and go over jury instructions. And if you're an appellate lawyer, you love it. And what it is, is both sides are trying to convince the judge to recount the law in the way that's most favorable to their position.
So let me just give you an example from this case.
A lot of people have talked about, well, there's different and slightly conflicting testimony about, was Donald Trump doing this because he was concerned about the 2016 election and that's why he was engaged in this sort of catch and kill scheme, or was he concerned about the reaction of Melania? Well, the law actually answers that, because if the judge instructs that you 100% have to show that he was only thinking about the campaign, then that's a really hard standard, and that's what the defense would want.
And what the DA wants is something that says, you know what? You can have dual motives, by the way, that is the law. So that is what I expect we're gonna find out either late today or certainly early tomorrow from the judge. So that's why the law matters, because it tells the jury what it is they would need to find beyond a reasonable doubt in order to find Donald Trump guilty.
Speaker C
Are there any unresolved questions around jury instruction that you're most interested in hearing, where Justice Mershon comes down?
Speaker E
Not really.
Speaker C
Okay, so you think it's gonna be pretty clear cut.
Speaker E
This is one where, like, I've seen people, like, pearl clutching for the last two days. I've never seen so much interest in jury instructions, as, you know, in the last couple of days. And obviously, it is important and obviously, around the edges, they're little things, but I don't expect any surprises. And, you know, this is when, first of all, the DA isn't going to have brought this case if he wasn't confident in just settled, middle of the road law being given. And even when you see the DA asking for certain things or the defense asking for certain things, the judge is pretty clear from the oral argument he heard that he's going to go with standard jury instructions. You know, every court has standard jury instructions. And I think that's what he's going to give here. So I'm not that concerned about the edges because the main part of the law I think, will be pretty clear. I'm a little concerned about their two lawyers on the jury. So that could lead to sort of hyper technical, not to denigrate lawyers, but that's what we do. We sort of overanalyze things.
So I'm more worried about that than the actual charge that the judge gives.
Dan Pfeiffer
We haven't covered the defense case much on this podcast. What did you make of their case and why did they call Robert Castillo? What were they trying to achieve with that witness?
Speaker E
So, you know, I'm not sure I'd call the defense case a defense case. I think I've got that sounds from your podcast.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yes.
Speaker E
I don't know, but I know that that could not ever have come from the defense lawyers.
You do not call Robert Costello if you're, if you're a trial lawyer.
I know Susan necklace. She's excellent and she just wouldn't do that. Okay. But to answer your question, what were they hoping to get if Robert Costello had presented himself differently and in my view, sort of here more credible? He was there to say that Michael Cohen sort of swore up one side and down the other that he had no information about Donald Trump paying Stormy Daniels at the time, that essentially this is all fabricated and that he had a huge incentive to say something because I, Robert Costello, told him that this whole case could go away if you essentially could use Donald Trump as a meal ticket. And so I think those were the two things that, if believed, would help undermine Michael Cohen's credibility.
And so I think that's why that would be the reason to call him.
There are many, many, many reasons not to.
Speaker C
I think we saw some of those in action.
Speaker E
Yes.
Dan Pfeiffer
Would attorneys with a more cooperative client have called different witnesses or was the bulk of their case trying to, they were trying to achieve that on cross with Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen? Most importantly, you know, that is one.
Speaker E
Of the things that's hard when you are an outsider. And certainly when I was doing these cases, it's really hard to judge the first part of your question, which is who else would you call? So we don't know the options they had. We don't know. For instance, would Keith Schiller have been a good witness?
He obviously could have said, I never had this famous phone call on October 24 where Michael Cohen says, I, Keith Schiller got a call and I handed it over to the president, then candidate Trump.
And he could say that didn't happen. He could say Stormy Daniels, the, you know, Stormy Daniel said he was outside the room. He actually, he was the one who invited her to dinner, the dinner where she didn't get dinner, says, Keith Schiller is the one who invited me. He was outside the door. Keith Schiller could have said, you know, that didn't happen.
We don't know the reason why they didn't call him. And instead they chose CosTello. You know, my own two cent is if the best they had was Costello, it makes you think Schiller must have been even worse, which, by the way, is hard to imagine. Just the problem with Costello was not just his demeanor and what he was doing on the stand and the sort of disrespect and the outbursts and the jury seeing all of that.
And there's somewhat of his misogynistic tone and cracked to Susan Hoffinger, the DA, who was asking questions.
But also he had all these black and white emails that made it absolutely clear that he was doing this on the part of Rudy Giuliani and the president of the United States, exactly what Michael Cohen had said. So he sort of had two huge problems.
Speaker C
So making the prosecution's case is not what you want in a defense witness.
Speaker E
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker C
So let's talk about closing arguments.
We will not put you on the spot to just come up with a closing argument right now. But if you were the prosecutor, how would you prepare for Tuesday and what would you be focusing on? Like, what are the most important points you think they should hit?
Speaker E
When I was in the us attorney's office and I was the criminal chief, I would go into these impromptu closings. Someone would come in and they'd present a problem who is a junior AUSA. And I'd be like, here's what you're going to do. And you just start immediately going into closing argument.
So one of the things just to pick up on Costello is, one of the things I think you have to do is I think he is so much affirmative proof that you want to make sure that the jury doesn't do what I think sometimes a juror has an inclination to say, oh, that's the defense case. I don't believe it, it was bad. And they move it aside as if it's not a proof that they can use affirmatively in their case. And I think you definitely want to. That's a small point, but you want to make sure that you've integrated it in and actually just say that to the jury.
I think there are sort of two big things.
I think that they need to make sure that the jury is looking at all of the proof together, because in every trial, what happens is the prosecution wants to make sure that the jury is thinking about all of it and the unlikely nature of the defense position that all of these things could be happening. And the defense wants to sort of isolate pieces of proof and look at a little leaf and say, well, that leaf isn't a tree and that leaf isn't a tree.
And so the strength of the government's case here is the constellation of witnesses and documents, and then the argument that, how does Allen Weisselberg and Michael Cohen know about the scheme and not tell Donald Trump? What would be the possible argument for that? And then to walk through all of that, the second thing I would do is I would almost isolate Michael Cohen and talk about the whole case before you even get to Michael Cohen. And in some ways, the way that the case was structured, the order of proof makes that really easy. And I think it was deliberate that they're gonna say, let's look at all the proof before you even get to Michael Cohen and how strong the case is. And then here's icing that you have from him.
Speaker C
And having followed the case as closely as you have, what do you think the defense argument will be?
Speaker E
Michael Cohen is indispensable to a conviction. And no one in this room would possibly in a million years say, even if you say, you know what? I think he seems like I sort of believe him on certain things. No one would ever say that he is proof beyond a reasonable doubt. And they called him because they knew they needed it. And he has some. He provides pieces that they need.
He provides the piece about the direct knowledge of Donald Trump to the false business records.
And there's a reason that he was there, and that is why you need to acquit. I mean, there's a, you know, he is obviously a very fallible witness. I think the state just will flip that and say, the reason he is all of these things you're hearing about him being such a louse is why he would never in a million years fork over $130,000 of his own money out of the goodness of his heart, as Hope Hicks said. And so I think you're going to see a lot of sort of, you know, flipping of the script on that by the state, which goes, by the way, the way it works in the state court is the defense goes first, the state goes second.
Speaker C
Oh, that's interesting.
Dan Pfeiffer
Walk us through what happens after closing arguments. I know this is a unique case, but how long do juries normally take to deliberate? I mean, not to put pressure on you, but we have a podcast schedule to try to adhere to here, so.
Speaker C
As does Andrew.
Speaker E
Yeah, exactly.
No one knows how long it takes.
So after the. I do want to flag one thing that will be really interesting. But the defense goes, the state goes, the judge then gives jury instructions, and then the jurors go back and deliberate.
They can send out notes, they can have questions about the law. They could ask to hear some testimony back.
And with respect to each of the 34 counts, for each count, there is a verdict.
It takes twelve on each count to convict. It takes twelve on each count to acquit. You can't have an acquittal without all twelve. You can't have a conviction without all twelve. And if you're somewhere in between, it's called a hung jury.
Sometimes a jury sends out a note and says, we just can't reach a verdict. And the judge sends them back saying, do your best. Give it the old college try. You can also have what's called a split verdict, where they reach a verdict of acquittal on some, a conviction on some, or an acquittal on some, and a hung jury on some, or a conviction on some, and a hung mix and match.
One of the things to keep an eye out, one of the ways that I think you could have a split verdict here is the checks that Donald Trump himself signed versus the ones that his sons signed. And so the first ten of the 34 counts are not ones that Donald Trump himself signed. So you could have this very nerve wracking moment where the first ten counts are not guilty. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be not guilty for all 34, because the test will be count eleven, whether on that one. So that's, you know, because I could see a jury saying, you know what? Maybe we'll give him the ones where he didn't personally sign, because that way, we can't.
Each check was that there. The false invoice was attached to it, that he could easily see that it was fake.
And you could see them thinking, okay, I'm going to convict on those, but not the others.
Speaker C
I'm sure social media would handle that really well. If there was ten not guilty, there'll be. Headlines will be up in New York Times and everywhere else before we even get to count eleven.
Speaker E
Shit show. Yeah, that's the legal term.
Dan Pfeiffer
It seems appropriate in this case. Look, we don't do predictions on our show, but obviously you can. And I know you may be saving this for your podcast, which everyone should subscribe to, but give me your best guess what you think is going to happen here based on how closely you've watched this case, what the prosecution has done, what the defense have done, the evidence presented, et cetera.
Speaker E
So you're going to be really disappointed. I just. So I'm going to give you two answers. Neither are going to be satisfactory.
One. Every single trial I did as a prosecutor, I thought I would lose.
I was the most pessimistic person, and every single note that a jury would come out with, I would read it trying to figure out the most disadvantageous view. I'd be like, oh, my God, we've lost. Even with notes that were unbelievably favorable, you know, in order to convict, is it enough if we found two counts against him, you know, and I'd be like, okay, that's.
Dan Pfeiffer
There's a point that's generally my approach to politics, so I appreciate that. Yes, that's true.
Speaker E
I was gonna say, yeah.
So that's sort of one sort of issue, and I just think the other is that I just don't know. I mean, this is.
It's like, there's so many things in this case that are unknowns.
If this was a normal case, if it didn't involve a former president, where I'm concerned about the jury unconsciously thinking that there has to be more proof and more direct proof, even though circumstantial proof is just as good as direct proof under the law. But I could see some jurors thinking that. I could also imagine, having been in high profile matters, that there's. There will be a juror who doesn't want to deliberate, who has a strong view one way or the other. But if it was a normal case, and I was assessing this as a prosecutor, saying, should I bring the case? I would think, oh, this is an incredibly strong case.
I was surprised how strong this case was.
From the moment it started with David Pecker, I thought, okay, David Pecker was an incredibly good witness for the state and answered the question, which I think a lot of us had, which is, why bring this case?
I was like, okay, maybe it's a down scale media outlet, but you have this media outlet with a secret agreement to help a political candidate both by catching and killing and disseminating intentionally false stories about his adversaries. I was like, okay, if I were a juror, I'd be like, I understand why I should care.
Speaker C
Yeah. Last question. We'll let you go.
We had our pal Norm Eisenhower, who has said that May 20 was the date he was circling as to whether the Supreme Court would hand down the decision on whether Trump is immune from prosecution in the January 6 case. And he thought that after that date, it would be very, very difficult to have a case before the election. Do you think the window has closed for a case before the election on the January 6 charges?
Speaker E
Yeah, I mean, I thought it had closed just in the way that they handled the case and sort of when they took it and the delay. And I just have always thought that that case has been pocket vetoed by people who seem to have a penchant for flying all sorts of flags around their homes and beach homes. So I just always think that, I think the best hope there is is that in whatever standard they may come up with, that it allows Judge Chukkin, the trial judge, to hold a hearing on that issue about sort of what is official conduct, what is private conduct, because if she can hold a hearing, she doesn't have to wait to do that. She can just, and that, by the way, when I say a hearing, I mean a factual hearing where the prosecution can say, you know what, Mike Pence, hop on the stand, you know. So I think that's the, to me, that's the only remaining possibility in terms of having an additional factual presentation that the american public would, you know, be able to not see live, but they would be able to experience before the election.
Speaker C
Andrew Weissman, thank you so much for joining Podsave America. We'll put you down for guilty on all 34 counts.
Dan Pfeiffer
Tweet that out, social team.
Speaker C
Everyone. Check out prosecuting Donald Trump with Andrew and Mary McCord. And thanks again for joining us. And have a good one.
Speaker E
Thanks so much.
Speaker C
Thanks to Andrew Weissman for joining the show. Everyone. Have a fantastic weekend. And I think we are off on Monday because it's Memorial Day, but then, you know, just a million pods we'll have from us because we're here. Bye, everyone.
Dan Pfeiffer
Before we go, I also want to say happy birthday to Kyla who turned six today.
Speaker C
Kyla, happy birthday.
That is fantastic.
Dan Pfeiffer
Six years old. It's wild.
Speaker C
Happy birthday, Kyla.
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