TRUMP FOUND GUILTY!

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Jon Favreau
Welcome to Pod save America. I'm Jon Favreau.

Dan Pfeiffer
I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

Jon Favreau
On today's show, we are looking at count one, guilty.

Dan Pfeiffer
Count two, guilty.

Unidentified Speaker
Count 19, guilty.

Jon Favreau
Count 20, guilty.

Unidentified Speaker
Count 33 and 34, guilty.

Jon Favreau
That is Donald J. Trump, defendant in.

Unidentified Speaker
New York versus Donald Trump, found guilty on all 34 felony counts. That is the verdict here in this case.

Jon Favreau
Guilty. Guilty. Guilty. Guilty.

Donald Trump, the twice impeached former president and current republican nominee, is now running as a convicted felon. Late Thursday afternoon, after about only 8 hours of deliberation, a twelve person jury of his peers found him guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree as part of an effort to unlawfully influence the 2016 election.

He is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11, just four days before he is formally nominated at the republican national convention. Dan, how about that?

Dan Pfeiffer
What a day, my friend. What a day.

Jon Favreau
Good things can happen.

Oh, I'm sorry. Were we supposed to be. This is a very serious and somber day for America. Or are we just. Are we popping champagne?

Dan Pfeiffer
We're popping champagne.

Jon Favreau
Okay, good. I just wanted to make sure you're on.

Dan Pfeiffer
We're not going to pretend. Everyone, all, everyone I know, everyone is pretending that we can't be happy. This is a dark day for America. We've been living in fucking dark days for years now, right? Let's have a good one.

Jon Favreau
Right? And this is not to say that we're like, oh, this means we're going to win the election. No, no, no.

Dan Pfeiffer
That we're, that's coming.

Jon Favreau
That's, yeah, we're going to talk about that later. But today, this day, this weekend, this is a happy time. We can go, we can go back to being anxious and scared afterwards. But right now, happy day. Ok, we are going to hear from our old pal Norm Eisen, CNN legal commentator, our former White House colleague. We're going to hear from Norman a bit. He was in the courtroom. We're going to hear later from strict scrutiny's Melissa Murray brought her back after she's doing double duty pod save America this week, and she's going to get into the verdict with us and what happens next. But first, let's hear from the convicted felon himself.

Donald Trump
This was a disgrace.

This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.

It's a rigged trial of disgrace.

They wouldn't give us a venue change. We were at 5% or 6% in this district, in this area.

This was a rigged, disgraceful trial.

The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people, and they know what happened here. And everybody knows what happened here.

You have a Soros backed da and the whole thing. We didn't do a thing wrong.

I'm a very innocent man.

And it's okay. I'm fighting for our country. I'm fighting for our constitution.

Our whole country is being rigged right now. This was done by the Biden administration in order to wound or hurt an opponent, a political opponent. And I think it's just a disgrace. And we'll keep fighting. We'll fight till the end and we'll win because our country's gone to hell. We don't have the same country anymore. We have a divided mess.

We're a nation in decline, serious decline. Millions and millions of people pouring into our country right now from prisons and from mental institutions, terrorists, and they're taking over our country. We have a country that's in big trouble. But this was a rigged decision right from day one with a conflicted judge who should have never been allowed to try this case. Never.

And we will fight for our constitution. This is long from over. Thank you very much.

Jon Favreau
Why should others vote for a nicotine?

Dan Pfeiffer
Are you going to drop out?

Jon Favreau
Cry harder.

Dan Pfeiffer
Are you going to drop out? Great question. I appreciate that person.

Jon Favreau
I do, too.

Of course, the Biden administration, you know, the DOJ actually passed on this case. So everything he said about that was a lie.

So to give us his perspective of what it was like inside the courtroom shortly before Donald Trump walked out and just spoke to the cameras just now, our former White House colleague and pal Norm Eisen. Can you give us a little color from inside the courtroom today? What was it like when the verdict came in?

There was a little confusion at some point because it seemed like Judge Mershon was gonna send the jury home at 415. Then suddenly we had a verdict. What was going on there?

Norm Eisen
He said, you know, it was a whiplash, right? Cause we all thought he said, okay, we're sending the jury home. 430 we're gonna send them home.

And people were already tweeting, oh, this means the jury is deadlocked. I'm like, I was already like, gonna fight a social media war. No, it doesn't mean anything. It's only one day. Then he says, we have a note.

This is a very, this courtroom, 1530 of Manhattan criminal court part 59 is full of the most battled hardened journalists, right? I mean, you guys, Dan trained me how to deal with journalists on a wholesale basis.

Dan Pfeiffer
Run far away is what I.

Jon Favreau
Mission accomplished.

Norm Eisen
When we had a really big problem, he would tell me to run at them.

Even in that room, when he said, we have a note from the jury. There is a verdict. Those cynical, you know, they gasped. He said, I will not have any outbursts. No loud outbursts. When the verdict is read. I immediately wrote, here, I can read it to you. I immediately wrote, a jury of twelve Americans today found Donald Trump guilty on 34 charges of election interference and cover up. I've already filed my, I do a daily trial diary for CNN. I already filed it. I knew that if it came back that fast, and that's part of the gasp. If it comes back that fast, in a day and a half, that's a hanging jury, not a hung jury.

And so there was that feeling, of course, you never know for 100%.

And then the jury came in. They filed in about a half an hour later. They did not look at Trump.

Their head was down. That's a sign. I'm a defense lawyer. Most of my life, I never wanted to be a prosecutor.

And when the jury comes in and not one looks at your client, you're doomed.

And then the first count, guilty.

What's the verdict on count one? Guilty. And those beautiful 33 guilties that followed that. And he is guilty. He's guilty of subverting. It was so strange. I wrote this in my CNN column. Not to say alleged election interference, but for the first time, I could write election interference, criminal conspiracy and cover up.

He's now an adjudicated criminal, and he's a democracy criminal. That's what matters so much.

And I hope people will recognize that when he says he's going to be a dictator on day one, it's just more criminality ahead.

Dan Pfeiffer
Norm, what was Trump's reaction as these, the 34 guilty verdicts were ready, grim.

Norm Eisen
It's not a good feeling, Dan.

I happen just by happenstance.

There is a place where I sometimes sit that is the last seat on the left as you enter the courtroom, right before the door. And that's where he looks. And a couple times in this trial, I think I talked about it with you all. Once he's met my eye, he went glared, grimaced at me. So I made sure, like I was sitting forward in my seat, you know, I was attempting to meet him. I was looking him in the eye. He was not looking anybody in the eye. He was looking down. He was, I think, angry.

He recognizes that this will be very damaging and that he may go to jail. He, I think there's a serious prospect that he's going to get a jail sentence, and if he's not reelected, that he serves that jail sentence.

Jon Favreau
Yeah, I was going to ask about that, like, say a little more about the possible jail sentence, because I know you've written in your book that you thought the jail was likely. Of course, you know, we know sort of the history of these kinds of cases, and it's a first offense. What makes you think that jail is really on the table here?

Norm Eisen
The reason I think that jail sentence is on the table is that I looked at 10,000 of these FBR falsifying business records cases in New York since 2015.

I wanted to know, do defendants ever get jail time for this, for this crime? And in the most serious cases, and this is the most serious FBR case in the history of the state of New York. In the most serious cases, defendants do get jail cut. I don't think the judge is going to send him up for the, you know, this is a one and a third to four years.

New York has indeterminate sentences, so you get a range.

The judge also has the power to sentence him to less than a year. I think he probably will get a sentence of less than a year. But that's not good news in Manhattan because those sentences are served in jail, not state prison. And the jail for the city of Manhattan, of course, is Rikers. So that's not great news for the former president.

Jon Favreau
Wow.

Dan Pfeiffer
Trump to Riker's question mark. Pod title.

Norm Eisen
If he loses, if he loses the election, if he wins the election, he's going to put up a bunch of constitutional defenses at the end of his appeals. I don't think the judge released him on his own recognizance. I don't think he's going to have to serve jail time before he's done with his appeals. The appeals in this case can take a year or even 18 months. So, but if he, it makes the election a referendum of the american people on Donald Trump's criminality and accountability. And we've seen. 20 18 20 20 20 22 when that's the question that is put to them, they don't like Donald Trump's way of doing business. So, you know, it's not a great day for Donald Trump.

Jon Favreau
Speaker one well, Norm, there was certainly one former occupant of the White House who, who should have taken your, your ethics training.

And I tried to give it to him.

Norm Eisen
I tried to give it to him. Fabs. I volunteered.

The wonderful Max Steyer of the partnership for public service brings the specialists in for both presidential campaigns. And I helped both presidential campaigns with these. I offered to help with this stuff. And I actually had a brief tenure after he won, advising Chris Christie's team before Christie was booted out of the transition.

He had his chance.

That was the original sin when he chose to take office. And we talked about it at the time. The constitution says there's one, there's only one ethics rule in the constitution. Don't take money or other goodies from foreign governments. Emoluments.

When he did that, it was all downhill from there. And landed him, landed him in these 34 felony convictions that he received just a few minutes ago.

Jon Favreau
Normizing, thanks as always for joining the pod. And, you know, hope you go take some time off.

Norm Eisen
The pod is, I'm going to, I'm going to take my wife on vacation. The pod is not just news for us.

You all sound the alarm and you talk about what we have to do. What we have to do. We've been having this conversation since that. Emoluments talk about Trump's criminality the first week of the pod.

Jon Favreau
That's right. That's right.

Norm Eisen
I thank you and all of the pod Save America family. Thanks, Dan. Thanks, pabs.

Jon Favreau
Thanks, Norm. Take care.

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Jon Favreau
All right, Dan, now that weve got all the legal stuff out of the way, now we get to talk politics.

So, you know, the reaction from Trump and Republicans so far, I would say, has not been necessarily surprising.

In addition to what we heard from Trump earlier, you know, the speaker of the House is already out with the statement saying this is shameful and political.

The Trump people have already been fundraising off this. The minute the verge was announced, they sent out fundraising appeals about this. You get a bunch of, you know, Twitter conservatives and right wing MAGA people saying, oh, this is only going to, this is only gonna elect Donald Trump. Now. That's the new thing. This is actually gonna help Donald Trump and hurt Joe Biden. And then I noticed that Larry Hogan, the former republican governor of Maryland, who is now running for Senate in Maryland, he simply posted a tweet saying, everyone should respect the verdict. And Chris La Savita, Trump's senior aide, said, this is the end of your campaign.

Dan Pfeiffer
So they seem to be taking this quite well, is what I'd say.

Jon Favreau
And on the other side, Joe Biden tweeted, only one way to keep Trump out of the Oval Office at the ballot box. The Biden campaign released a statement saying, in New York today, we saw that no one is above the law. Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain. But today's verdict doesn't change that. There's only one way to stop Donald Trump. Ballot box. Just like what Biden said. And then it said, convicted felon or not, Trump will be the republican nominee for president. And then the White House put out a statement that just said, we respect the rule of law and have no additional comment. Okay, so that's all the reaction. What's your take on the verdict and the potential political impact now that we've had a couple hours, I guess, to really sort of soak in all the takes.

Dan Pfeiffer
I mean, the verdict, it is just always in these moments worth stepping back and realizing just how, what an unprecedented historical event this is. This is the former president, like, Donald Trump was not running for office ever again. This would be a gigantic deal, right? First former president convicted of 34 counts of a crime related to his first election win, right? You have a jury of his peers declaring that he tried to cheat to win that election, committed crimes to do so.

Huge deal. Then you add in the fact that he is the presumptive republican nominee. Then you add in the fact that polls show that he is a jump all away from the White House. And then you add in the fact that we are three and a half weeks away from the first debate potentially in this campaign. And that's in that debate is scheduled before his sentencing. So he will not be on house, but not be able to use house arrest as an excuse to get out of that debate.

Jon Favreau
Might have to do the second debate with an ankle bracelet on.

Dan Pfeiffer
He might have to do it by Zoom.

It's a giant event, right? And we're going to get to the politics. The politics are interesting and important and fascinating, but it's just, with all things Trump is just always worth just trying to take us a step back for a second and try to place it, the absurdity of it and the danger of it in the broader scope of history, because it's a huge deal.

Jon Favreau
It is a huge deal. And yeah, you're right. I mean, like, even setting aside the politics, it does raise the stakes of this election in another way, which is like, if we, if this country goes ahead and elects a convicted felon to be president, then, yeah, we are in some tough times, and we've been in some tough times in politics for the last seven, eight years now since Donald Trump walked onto the scene. And now this. I do think this raises the stakes in the election even higher, because now we have a very vengeful and angry Donald Trump running to become president, who has now been convicted by a jury of his peers.

Dan Pfeiffer
I would say this is not the biggest thing, but Donald Trump being elected president after being convicted of 34 felony accounts would be the end of scared straight as a strategy with kids in school.

Jon Favreau
I mean, that's. Yeah, like, you can talk about the politics in the polls, and we're gonna get into all that, but it's just like the man who wants to be in charge of, like it says in the. In the faithfully executing the laws of this country has broken. Has been convicted by a jury of his peers of breaking the laws that he now wants to faithfully execute as president, United States. Again, that's. That's where we are right now. And again, he was. Now. He's now been convicted of, uh, cheating in the 2016 election, uh, this week, he was unlawfully influencing the 2016 election, uh, by falsifying business records in furtherance of this hush money scheme. He is also been charged with trying to overturn the 2020 election.

And we are waiting for the Supreme Court that he created, the Supreme Court majority that he created to decide whether he is immune from prosecution for that, for trying to overturn the 2020 election that he lost. So he's been convicted of trying to unlawfully influence the 2016 election. He won.

He's been charged with trying to overturn the 2020 election that he lost. And now he is running to be president again in the 2024 election and is currently leading in the swing states.

That's where we are, Dan. That's where we are.

Dan Pfeiffer
All of those polls were conducted before the conviction just for.

Jon Favreau
That is true. That is true. Well, so then what do you think? Let's. Let's go right there. What do you. What do you think about the. The political impact of this? We've been talking about it since before we got a verdict. Now that the verdict is out, it's starting to sink in. What do you think?

Dan Pfeiffer
I think the prevailing narrative that the conviction won't really matter is, I think, pretty disconnected from both what the polls actually say and the reality of an election that is likely to be this close. It is certainly true that upwards of three quarters to 80% of voters are not going to change their mind. Even in the Marist poll, there's a swath of voters who say Trump's conviction makes them more likely to vote for him.

I'm going to guess those voters weren't previously, prior to the conviction in the undecided pool. I guess that they were pretty hardcore Trump voters.

And there are a lot of voters who don't think they care. We've already seen that voters, when asked about the various, Trump's various crimes, have rated this one to be less severe. Although many, most of them think these charges raise serious questions about Trump and are serious, just not as serious as stealing classified documents and over and participating in a scheme to violently overturn an election. So we're really grading on a criminal curve here.

But there are a swath of voters who are deeply uncomfortable and they keep telling pollsters in poll after poll after poll deeply uncomfortable with sending a convicted felon to the White House.

And that doesn't mean they're all going to end up in Joe Biden's camp. It doesn't mean they're all going to decide today, the next time Nate Cohn personally calls them as part of his poll, they're going to tell him that they're for Joe Biden. But it means that there is an opening with a set of voters. And CNN last month, in a poll focused in on the 25%, there's 25% of Trump voters who will, who said that they would reconsider their support if he were convicted of a crime, that that quarter of Trump's vote is younger than the average Trump voter. It's more diverse than the average Trump voter, more likely to believe the election, Biden legitimately won the election. So the, these are voters who, many of them, I would guess, are the same voters we're seeing in the swing states who are currently saying they're voting for Donald Trump and Ruben Gallego and Donald Trump and Bob Casey. And so these are, these are very gettable voters for Joe Biden. And a conviction is an argument to make for those voters. And so it's going to take time and energy and effort. It's not going to happen overnight. But this can really be a big deal in, and with a certain set of voters who, that is more than big enough to decide the election.

Jon Favreau
The certain set of voters that don't like criminals in the White House.

Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah. Which is just, that's a smaller swap flavor.

Jon Favreau
It's a certain flavor voter. No, I mean, you mentioned the, there was a new NPR PBS Maris poll is a very high quality pollster. And they found that, you know, 75% of registered voters, something more than 75% of registered voters said that the verdict would not impact their vote choice at all. But I gotta, and there's some other polls like that and they're being cited all over the place. I gotta say, if you called me, if I was taking the poll and you said, would a verdict impact your vote? I would say no, because I've already decided that I'm never gonna vote for Donald Trump for anything ever as long as I live. So, of course, there's gonna be a huge percentage of people who say that it's not going to impact their vote because most people have decided already, because most people know Donald Trump and know Joe Biden and have experienced both of them now for the last eight years. And, you know, they've made up their mind. So you're right, it's always going to be about the voters who either haven't made up their minds yet or have made up their minds, but are, like, open to changing their minds. Right. Which we know is like, I don't know, anywhere up to 25% of the, the electorate probably, if you, if you believe a lot of these polls. But again, we don't know because it's early now, you said, we obviously have a lot of work to do to make that argument. How do you think Democrats, Joe Biden, his campaign should handle this going forward? Because that's, that's the big question. Because we know it's going to, you know, dominate news coverage for, I hope, the weekend, at least we're recording this on Thursday.

But everyone, like, you know, the news moves on fast these days. No one remembers anything. Like how, how do Democrats and Biden keep this in the news and really brand Donald Trump as a convicted felon, which he is.

Dan Pfeiffer
You have to call him a convicted felon over and over and over again. It has to be, it's basically should be at the end of every sentence that involves Donald Trump. Donald Trump, a convicted felon, wants to cut your Social Security and ban abortion nationwide. You, you have to say it. And for, there are two reasons to say it. Like, I am generally skeptical of the idea that are we should do, Democrats should do their messaging as a way to just trigger Trump into reacting. I find that to be overly trolly, I would think, and not particularly effective with swing voters.

But in this case, yeah, if he re, this will cause him to react and that, that is fine, but we just have, voters have to know that he's a convicted felon. And polls are showing that more and more people are paying attention to this trial as it has gone on. I'm sure this is, people will know about the verdict and hear about the verdict, but we're still gonna have to keep talking to him about it, because the voters we need the most, that swath of voters are willing to change their minds, are the ones we see over and over again in polls, who engage with politics at least, who consume the news at least, who talk about politics the least. And so this is going to be a process with them. The second thing, and I think is critically important, is to remind people that this was, this is not the Biden administration or the deep state or anything like that. This was a jury of Donald Trump's peers that was selected with input from Donald Trump's attorneys.

They are the ones who rendered this verdict.

Jon Favreau
Yep.

Dan Pfeiffer
And I think that is critically important, because trust in institutions is way down across place, but people still believe in juries. And we have to remind people this was a decision from a jury.

Jon Favreau
Yes. No, I totally agree. Now, there was a report last week that maybe Biden was gonna speak about this when it happened.

That has obviously not happened. I guess he's currently at Rehoboth beach. He probably saw this on television at Rehoboth with his family, like all the rest of us did, just watching it on tv. I wonder what he will say or what he should say in the days to come. It seems like the White House or the campaign intimated that he would speak in an informal setting about it, probably when asked by a reporter. I think the big question then is, what happens in the debate? And if you're in debate prep with Joe Biden over the next couple of weeks, how do you handle this? Because my instinct is that Joe Biden has to talk about this, and he has to be. He has to talk about it in the right way, basically, just how you said it. Right? It's a jury of his peers. Again, DOJ Biden's own Justice Department declined to prosecute this charge. They could have prosecuted the federal charge here. They did not, even though they did prosecute Michael Cohen and got a guilty plea from him. So it had literally nothing to do with the Biden administration. This was a decision by Alvin Bragg. And of course, Trump's defense lawyers, like you said, had input into the jury and everything. So how do you think that Biden should talk about it? And how much should Biden talk about it?

Dan Pfeiffer
I think it should be he should talk about it in high leverage moments. It should be part of the debate. For sure. He should bring it up in the debate. He should talk about in the debate.

I think he should explain why it is, he should use the bully pulpit, right. That he has to try to explain what it is Trump was guilty of. Right. And I think this is where election interference is really important.

The fact that he falsified these business records not simply just to hide personal misconduct or to hide an affair, he did it to trick voters. Right. To lie to the public. Right. That he committed a, you know, he perpetuated a fraud on the public in order to gain power. And that is a way to tell a broader story about how Trump does everything.

Jon Favreau
Yeah. And I think, like, if someone asked me why this was a big deal who hadn't really been paying attention, I would say, yeah, well, he used, he used his money. He did what he always does, which is he used his money and influence to hide the truth from the american people. And I think one of the prosecutors made this point during the trial, but they said, you know, is it a big deal that Donald Trump had an affair with the porn star ten years ago? I don't know, but that was for the voters to decide. And what he did is he broke the law so that they wouldn't have that choice. He took that choice away from them. And he made it with, you know, he made these choices with David Pecker and Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels lawyers and everything like that. And he, and then he hit it from people because he thinks that the rules don't apply to him and he only cares about himself. And so just like he tried to overturn the election that he lost, he cheated in the election that he won because he thought that the access Hollywood tape was going to end the campaign. And then if this came out, too, who knows? Maybe he could have lost the election. We don't know that. But again, he took that choice away from the american people. He tried to hide the truth from the american people because he's rich, because he has influence, because he's well connected. And that is how he got, that is how he's governed as president. That's how he would govern. Again, he doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself.

He will screw anyone over, even his supporters, even the people who are loyal to him. He does not care because he is only in it for himself. And right now he is running for president again so that he can escape the legal consequences that were already rendered by a jury of his peers.

Dan Pfeiffer
The other important language here, and I've seen this polled. We've had many opportunities to look at polling over various Trump crimes over the last couple years here. But is the point that no one in America, no one is above the law, not even a former president? Yeah, I think that's just, that's a very. That's, that I think that's how Biden should talk about it.

Jon Favreau
Right.

Dan Pfeiffer
That, and I think that's, that's the way to, the way to explain it.

Jon Favreau
So what do you think the Trump campaign does to try to mitigate the potential damage here? Uh, we've already seen, like I said, they are fundraising. They are saying that, you know, um, we've raised more money in the last, you know, our sites crashed because so many people are donating. They're already doing that. They're, of course, trying to delegitimize the verdict in the minds of the american people, not just from the Trump campaign, but from, like, nearly every elected Republican, probably. Um, so they're going to pull that. They're going to try to delegitimize the verdict. And then what else do you think they're going to do here?

Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, I think the, the primary thing is to maximize it for fundraising and organizing purposes. We saw the preview in this and that, uh, much discussed New York Times story about Donald Trump's outlaw image. This, the, you know, don't forget, these are the people who raised millions of dollars off of his mug shot by putting it on t shirts. The only tweet Donald Trump has sent since January 6, 2021, was the mug shot. Um, I think, and the second thing is, you. They were, they were, they were prepared for this. Right? You had the, the statements from Governor Reynolds, Mike Johnson. Just republican politicians all across the spectrum had statements in the can to put out as soon as the verdict came in to show that the party was going to stick with Trump. And it's also why Chris Lacivita probably foolishly went after Larry Hogan for, um, speaking out, which is to use blunt force and fear to show every Republican, you stay in line or you pay a price. Now, this is probably, this probably good politics for Larry Hogan, to be honest. But for everyone else, you see why you're going to, you're either going to say something supportive or going to keep your trap shut, and then it is to turn on the fire hose of propaganda and disinformation to muddy the waters here, right, to make it seem like this is, it's rigged. It's the Biden Department of Justice. It was a corrupt judge. Other people, you know, we'll see this in the sentencing, there'll be other, you know, other people who've committed, who've done similar things, haven't gotten sentenced, haven't gotten charged.

And it's just, it is a fire hose of disinformation and propaganda. And that has been known in the past to provide just enough cover for Trump to avoid full account political accountability for some of these things. Because there are a bunch of voters who are, don't really love Donald Trump, aren't really happy with the way things are going. They're angry at Biden, for whatever reason, for high prices, and they're looking for permission to stick with Trump. And he's trying to give them that permission. He doesn't have to do it for a lot of voters. It's just, you know, 50.1% of that swath of voters that we were just talking about to keep him in his camp to win this whole thing.

Jon Favreau
Yeah. And I do think, like, the best retort from democrats is like, thousands of people have gone to jail for this very offense, right? This case, this, this, these felony charges are prosecuted in New York all the time in the first degree, much like it was Donald Trump. So why does Donald Trump get off and not them? Why should the law not apply? It's like what you were saying about no one's above the law. Why should the law not apply to Donald Trump? Just because he's a rich guy running for president and all the other people who were found guilty of falsifying records, business records, in the first degree, like, they should go to jail, they should be punished. But Donald Trump shouldn't when he was convicted by a jury of his peers who had nothing to do with the Biden administration or the prosecutor or all that bullshit. And by the way, he's got a whole bunch of other felony charges. And the only reason he's not sitting in a courtroom in Florida right now is because the judge that he appointed is slow walking the case. And the only reason that he's not sitting in a courtroom in DC right now is because the Supreme Court majority that he created is delaying the case. So, like, let's not pretend this was some political vendetta to just get Donald Trump when Donald Trump has been treated more fairly than most people on trial and also has been using his connections and his influence to evade the law in a whole bunch of other cases, right?

Dan Pfeiffer
And let's not pretend like this is an isolated incident on a otherwise unblemished record of civic participation in innocence, right? I mean, he's already in the last year. I mean, he's been convicted of a found guilty of a massive, perpetuating a massive fraud on the state of New York. He has been involved defamation. He's been as a declared someone guilty of sexual assault by a court. He, speaker one.

Jon Favreau
We all watched him try to steal the election. He tried to have his vice president hung what?

Dan Pfeiffer
On national television. He was impeached twice.

He was impeached twice.

Jon Favreau
Everyone who like no one should be fucking sheepish about this. I mean, I'm it's ridiculous. Like, we were all there on January 6. We all saw the month leading up to it. What are we doing here, people? It's ridiculous. Anyway, okay, that made me feel better.

When we come back, we will be talking to strict scrutiny's Melissa Murray about the verdict and what comes next.

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That.

Unidentified Speaker
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Jon Favreau
All right, with us to dig in a little more into the verdict and what's next. We have our friend Melissa Murray, co host of strict scrutiny. Melissa, welcome back.

eHarmony
Thanks for having me. I feel like I've been here twice in two days. I think that's exactly right. Like, I've gone nowhere.

Jon Favreau
I, like, just finished hearing you talk to Tommy about this. So first thoughts on the verdict.

eHarmony
Well, in the words of the immortal stormy Daniels, that was fast.

Jon Favreau
Good stuff.

eHarmony
Good stuff. So this morning, I am going to LA tomorrow, and I was like, you know, it's going to suck because this verdict's going to come out on Friday. Because once they started asking, once the jury started asking for information about the meeting between Pecker and Cohen and whatnot and more information about sort of the conspiracy aspects of this was like, oh, they're really digging in and they're looking for the links that bring Trump into this. So they're already at the main stuff. And I was figuring, like, if they were already asking for that kind of stuff, and we're reviewing that, they weren't going to go beyond this weekend. I mean, they've already lost one Memorial day weekend, like, having to be on this story. I mean, they didn't have to deliberate over Memorial Day, obviously, but they want their lives back. And I just figured by Friday this would be over. I wasn't expecting it to be today.

That was actually much more surprising. So the fact that they came in at around 430 and that it's unanimous on all of the counts, like, you know, amazing and big props to the people of New York and to the Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg, who in April 2023, lots of people, including former folks from the DA's office like Mark Pomeranz, were really questioning his judgment about bringing this case as opposed to something more sweeping, but he seemed to have figured out the sweet spot and he got a conviction on all of those counts.

Jon Favreau
Do you think this was a winnable case that the defense lost and Trump lost because he probably made his defense lawyers do all kinds of things that they wouldn't have argued and maybe if Trump wasn't their client, 100%.

eHarmony
This is a white guy with resources and three relatively good lawyers, one very excellent criminal defense lawyer who apparently got sidelined. We don't exactly know why. I speculate it's perhaps because she has a uterus.

But Susan Necklace, who is one of the defense lawyers, is a very good lawyer, and it wasn't clear that she was always on the same team as her client and the other lawyers. There were a couple of times where submissions were made to the court, and she refused to sign them. And one might speculate she refused to do so because she would like to continue practicing in this jurisdiction with the reputation she now enjoys. But he seemed really attached to Todd Blanche and Emile Bove. Bove. I'm not actually sure how you say it, but Todd Blanche is not really a defense lawyer. He's a former prosecutor. He's a very experienced prosecutor, but he doesn't have a lot of experience doing criminal defense cases. And I do think this was a winnable case, but maybe not by him. Right? So the defendant always has the easier time of it, especially a white defendant with lots of resources, because the government has such a huge burden to bear. Like, they have to prove the defendant's guilt on every count beyond a reasonable doubt. That's very, very hard. And all the defense has to do is say, like, they didn't do that. They actually don't have to put on any defense at all, and indeed, they really didn't here. But what they do have to do is offer a counter narrative to the prosecution. And here, the prosecution crafted this narrative that didn't depend on Michael Cohen. It depended on those documents, which don't lie, which are irrefutable. And Michael Cohen and all of the other witnesses were merely corroboration for the documents.

And the defense never really put up a counter narrative that could go toe to toe with the narrative those documents created.

Dan Pfeiffer
So sentencing is July 11. What happens between now and then is the idea that the judge just on July 11 unveils what he believes the sentence to be, or are there arguments, emotions in between?

eHarmony
So there's going to be stuff in between. And one of the big things that happens is, you know, Donald Trump's going to have to come back down to downtown Manhattan and go to another part of the courtroom building. And if he thought the courtroom was shitty, he's going to love this part. He's going to be taken to the probation department, where he's going to be interviewed, and he's going to be asked about his criminal history. He doesn't have one, so that'll go pretty quickly. It'll be asked about his health, all kinds of things. And all of that information will be compiled by a probation officer into what is known as a pre sentencing report. And that pre sentencing report will go to Judge Mershon, who will use it as he thinks about what the appropriate sentence is. And so, you know, things that are considered are the defendant's past criminal history, if there is one. Whether or not the defendant is likely to be a recidivist and do this again, all things of that nature. And so that can take some time to compile the PSR a couple of weeks.

I think the July 11 sentencing date is probably a little ambitious. Like, this is likely to be appealed, and there may be questions about whether Judge Merchand is willing to impose a sentence while those appeals are pending. He could decide to just sort of put everything on pause until the appeals are decided. It could be the case that he is more reluctant to sentence in view of the coming election cycle. I mean, if the sentence. And I think it's more likely that it's something like probation as opposed to incarceration.

If he's on probation, it's gonna be very hard for Donald Trump to fly around the country doing campaign events. Right. I mean, like, just like it is a cramp in your style, necessarily, to be a convicted felon and be under a criminal sentence. So hard to say when that's actually going to happen. But there are a lot of interim steps between what we just saw in the courtroom and what will happen in the courtroom again when he's sentenced.

Jon Favreau
I want to ask about the sentence, because I know on Wednesday's pod with Tommy, you were, like, a little more skeptical that he might actually serve jail time.

eHarmony
I'm still skeptical.

Jon Favreau
Still skeptical?

Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah.

Jon Favreau
Can you talk about, like, why we just like to, you know, normize in, and Norm thinks that jail is. He's not sure about jail, but he thinks jail is on the table. What makes you think that they just won't. That the judge will be reluctant to do this.

eHarmony
So jail's obviously on the table. Lots of things are on the table. Probation, house arrest. I think the reason for me that jail and incarceration seems unlikely. And again, like, I am totally happy to be wrong on this. This is not like having a fight with my husband where, like, I have to be right. I'm happy to be wrong. But the reason why I think jail is less likely here is because we've already seen Judge Merchand really come up close to the question of whether or not Trump should have some kind of incarcerative sanction for violating the gag order. And Judge Merchand himself said, like, I'm really loathe to. To put you in jail. You are a former president. You may be a future president, really loathe to do that. And none of that has changed. Right. He's still a former president. He may be the future president. And I think given the nature of the offenses, the fact that he has no recorded criminal history, it's just, I think, a lot easier to sentence him to some kind of alternative sanction, whether it is house arrest or probation, as opposed to throwing him in Rikers.

And to be clear, if he went to Rikers, he's not having the same Rikers experience as, like, say, the Central park five, now the exonerated five. So, I mean, he's getting a very different experience.

Jon Favreau
You mentioned the appeals process. Can you sort of take us through what that might look like and how long that might take and where it goes and what are the courts that might end up hearing that?

eHarmony
So I believe the defense has. I think I just looked this up. I want to say it's like 60 days to file an appeal, maybe longer. But they have some period of time in which they can present an appeal, and the appeal could be to all kinds of things. So, you know, they could appeal various decisions that were made in the course of the trial on the view that any one of those decisions reflected a clear error that was prejudicial to the defendant over the course of the trial. You know, to me, the most obvious appealable issue is the bootstrapping of the charges. The idea that these falsification of business records charges were, in most cases, misdemeanor offenses, but when they are done in furtherance of or in the concealment of other crimes, they then become felonies. And it's not really clear a whether you can have the other crime be a federal crime. And that was one of the universe of crimes that the prosecution had identified, a federal campaign law that was violated. They also identified state level tax laws as well as state level election laws. But that could be an appealable offense like the bootstrapping. I think there are all sorts of ways in which that might play out. I actually thought it was going to be a bigger issue at the trial, and it turned out not to be, but I think it could be a very big issue on appeal.

Jon Favreau
And is there a possibility that, so that it goes to an appeals court? Would it go to the, like, the state supreme court of New York possibility? Yeah.

eHarmony
The New York, which is interestingly called Judge merchant, is actually on the New York Supreme Court. The Supreme Court in New York is the trial level court. The intermediate appellate court is known as the appellate division. That would be the next step. And then after that is the court of last resort in New York state, and that is the court of Appeals.

Jon Favreau
And there's no way this could go to the Supreme Court, right? Or could it?

Dan Pfeiffer
It could.

eHarmony
I mean, like, you know, if he petitioned for sort of post conviction federal habeas relief, that could then be swapped over to the federal courts, and then you to the district court, an intermediate appellate court, and then on to the Supreme Court. I mean, there are lots of different permutations that this could take. And yes, it could go to the Supreme Court. And of course, the Supreme Court is already fat on a diet of Trump related cases, so it will be of no moment to them.

Dan Pfeiffer
But if Trump were to, norm hinted at this. But if Trump were to win the election, then there'd be a whole array of, there's a whole constitutional issues that would be at the same. Could you just talk briefly about what those questions would be?

eHarmony
So if he wins the election, and, like, I feel creepy and gross saying that. So, you know, full disclosure, I'm not trying to manifest something.

If he does win, then we have the sort of unprecedented circumstance of a president elect who has been convicted in a state of crimes. Now, there are certain things that won't be able to happen. So he's not going to be able to pardon himself because these are state level charges. So he's not going to be able to sort of wipe this conviction away as he could if he won and he had been subject to a federal conviction. But there are questions about whether or not a sitting president can serve a sanction for state level criminal convictions. I mean, like, we've never had that sort of situation. Like, maybe it's something that the Supreme Court has to get involved in eventually and determine, like, you know, maybe it's something that gets deferred until after his term of office. Like, you'll recall when Bill Clinton had the whole issue with Paula Jones in the civil case. One of the things he argued is, like, I can't go be a defendant in a civil lawsuit because I'm president of the United States, even though this lawsuit's not related to what I've done in the conduct of my job. It's when I was governor, but it's just too much stuff for me to deal with while I'm presidenting. I think there's a fair argument to be made that you can't be on house arrest when you are president of the United States, even if the House is the White House. Like, there are certain constraints around the job of being president that are incompatible with serving a criminal sentence. Like, and again, these are questions of first impression for constitutional law, because, weirdly, our originalist forefathers never imagined that someone that we might elect to the highest office in the land would be someone who had a rap sheet.

So, you know, we are truly in the upside down. We should fly a flag.

Jon Favreau
I was just about to ask before you went, like, which flag do you think is flying outside the Alito home this evening? Is there a flag for this?

eHarmony
Well, according to justice, Alito misses. Alito has a flag for almost everything. For veterans, for holidays, for sports teams, the Phillies, all of it. So I'm sure she has, in her arsenal of flags, a flag for when your preferred presidential candidate is credibly convicted by a jury of his peers on 34 counts. So I don't know what that would be. I'm not a flag aficionado, but I'm sure she has the right flag for the moment. And since it is her house that she jointly owns with him, I know that he won't be able to stop her from doing it because she has rights, which he, as her husband, honors and respects her choices.

Dan Pfeiffer
Right. Justice Alito would never tell a woman what to do.

eHarmony
Ever. Never. He's a feminist, Dan. I mean, I think we saw that from the letter. That letter was like, it was almost as though Jermaine Greer or Susan Sontag had written that letter. So feminist.

Jon Favreau
A feminist, just like Donald Trump, as we learned in this trial.

Melissa Murray, thank you, as always, for joining and spending time with us on pod Save America all week long.

eHarmony
Thanks for having me.

Jon Favreau
Have fun out here in Los Angeles.

eHarmony
Oh, I will. I'm gonna see the Sarah McLachlan concert at the Hollywood bowl.

Jon Favreau
Amazing.

eHarmony
Great spot to see 97 again. I'm ready.

Jon Favreau
All right, before we go, two quick housekeeping notes. The first is, you know, we agree with Joe Biden that we still have to beat Donald Trump at the ballot box, which is why, even though we're very excited today, everyone's got to work very hard over the next five months to make sure that a convicted felon is not elected president, United States. That's what vote Save America is for. If you haven't signed up, go to votesave america.com 2024. You can sign up. The folks at VSA will give you all kinds of work to do. You can donate money. You can do volunteer shifts all over the country. You can join team east or team west. It's a fun competition anyway. Go to VSA and check it out. Also, just in time for June, the Crooked store has launched our Pride or else collection. It includes designs for everyone, whether you're leading the parade or showing up as an ally. The collection also includes fresh versions of our best selling leave trans kids alone, you absolute freaks merch. That's evergreen. Unfortunately, most importantly, a portion of proceeds from every order go to Crooked's Pride or else fund in support of organizations working to provide gender affirming care and life saving resources to queer and transgender communities across America. Prep for Pride@cricket.com slash store all right, everyone, have a fantastic weekend. Have a few extra Martha Ritas.

Dan Pfeiffer
I was going to say Martha Ritas.

If there isn't a Martha Rita glass in the crooked store by the end of next week, I don't know what you guys are doing.

Jon Favreau
Can you believe, Dan, that John Lovett is not here for this verdict for this day? Of all the years we have dealt with Donald Trump, he's just, that is just the. It's a small thing for today, but it's just a real funny footnote for.

Dan Pfeiffer
Me, I would say. I think often about what happens when he first gets access to the Internet when this is all over.

Jon Favreau
I know. Well, this is, this is all we gotta. We gotta talk about this. Cause there's a couple different shows he's gotta do here. He's gotta explain himself to me and Max for offline. He's gonna come on pod save America and we gotta, like, quiz him about the news.

I don't know. He's got to go on. Keep it, I guess.

Talk about this season of survivor when he's legally allowed, I guess. I don't know. Unbelievable.

Dan Pfeiffer
Actually, you know what seems kind of like justice.

Jon Favreau
It is justice. Yes, it is justice.

Dan Pfeiffer
Finally, two people who've evaded accountability their whole lives.

Jon Favreau
Here's hoping that John Lovat had better luck at the tribal council than Donald Trump did in Manhattan. Bye, everyone.

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Angie
MasterChef dreams when you find a professional on Angie to tackle your dream kitchen remodel connect with skilled professionals to get all your home projects done well, visit angie.com dot. You can do this when you angie.

Unidentified Speaker
That why are smart businesses graduating to Netsuite by oracle? Because Netsuite eliminates the expense of multiple business systems by consolidating your operations together into one. Netsuite is the number one cloud financial system, bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR into one platform and one source of truth. Netsuite reduces it costs because it lives in the cloud with no hardware required, so you can access it from anywhere. You cut the cost and headaches of maintaining multiple systems because you've got one unified business management suite. Bringing all your major business processes into one platform improves efficiency, slashing manual tasks and errors. Over 37,000 companies have already made the move, so do the math. Youll see how youll profit with Netsuite, too. And now, by popular demand, Netsuite has extended its one of a kind, flexible financing program for a few more weeks. Just go to netsuite.com podcast 25 for more information. Thats netsuite.com podcast 25.

TRUMP FOUND GUILTY!

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1. Introduction to the Verdict

2. Legal Analysis

3. Political Repercussions

4. Public and Media Reaction

5. Closing Thoughts

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