US Drug Shortage Hits Record High & Apple Loses Crown to Samsung

This episode delves into the alarming rise of drug shortages in the US and explores how Apple has lost its top position in the smartphone market to Samsung.

1. The US is experiencing unprecedented drug shortages across various categories, including essential medications like chemotherapy and diabetes treatments.
2. Apple's decline in smartphone market share is attributed to increased competition, especially from Chinese manufacturers and a shift in consumer preferences.
3. The pharmaceutical supply chain is fraught with complexities and regulatory challenges that exacerbate drug shortages.
4. Economic factors, such as demand surges and manufacturing disruptions, play significant roles in both the pharmaceutical and technology sectors.
5. Strategies to mitigate these issues include diversification of supply chains and adjusting business models to current market demands.

1. Introduction to Drug Shortages

The episode opens with a discussion on the current state of drug shortages in the US, highlighting the breadth of the problem across multiple drug categories. Neal Freyman: "Drug shortages in the US have risen to an all-time high."

2. Apple's Market Challenges

The focus shifts to Apple losing its market leader position to Samsung, analyzing the reasons behind this shift and its implications. Neal Freyman: "Apple's iPhone shipments plunged 10% in the first quarter."

3. Economic and Regulatory Influences

This section explores the economic and regulatory factors contributing to drug shortages and market shifts in technology. Toby Howell: "The FDA's heavy regulation and the complexity of drug manufacturing are significant hurdles."

4. Broader Economic Impacts

Discussion on how these issues reflect broader economic trends and affect other industries, including housing and employment. Neal Freyman: "These economic challenges are reflective of wider market dynamics."

1. Stay informed about pharmaceutical supply issues to manage medication needs effectively.
2. Consider diversifying investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with market volatility in tech stocks.
3. Regularly update business contingency plans to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions.
4. For consumers, consider the longevity and support of tech products when making purchasing decisions.
5. Businesses should explore partnerships and collaborations to strengthen supply chain resilience.

Episode 302: Neal and Toby talk about the drug shortage that is plaguing America and what it means for the healthcare industry. Then, Tesla announces another round of layoffs while it’s still lagging behind in the EV market. Also, Apple is now playing catch-up as it falls behind its biggest competitor in the smartphone market. Next, Boomers with low mortgage rates and paid-off houses are staying put and have no plans to sell their homes, leaving little available homes for future generations. Meanwhile, ghost kitchens are starting to fade away. Lastly, cats are taking the spotlight in Hollywood.

People

Neal Freyman, Toby Howell

Companies

Apple, Samsung, Tesla, Xiaomi, Transom

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

None

Content Warnings:

None

Neal Freyman
Good Morning Brew Daily show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, drug shortages in the US have reached a record high. What's going on and how do we fix it then?

Toby Howell
Tesla is laying off employees as Elon tries to steer the automaker through the EV doldrums. It's Tuesday, April 16. Let's ride.

A new Gallup pole dropped yesterday that hits a especially close to home for the crew here at Morning Brew daily. When asked about sleep habits, only 42% of respondents say they are getting as much sleep as they need, while only 26% say they are getting a full recommended 8 hours. And here's the data point that has me yawning. 20% say they got just 5 hours or less, which is a jump from 14% back in 2013. Neal, we're in the 20%.

Neal Freyman
Speak for yourself, man. I'm hitting the pillow at 08:00 p.m. These days. But can we talk about the people in 1942? In this same poll, about 60% of Americans in 1942 said they slept eight or more hours and 33% they slept said they slept six to 7 hours.

I guess they just weren't worried about World War Two at all. We had in the back. I think it was the. I'm going to blame it on smartphones again because none of that blue light, you're just falling asleep a lot easier. And then.

Toby Howell
Yeah, that five hour or less category that I mentioned basically was non existent. No one reported that they got fire 5 hours or less. So clearly we're working too hard and we're sleeping not enough. If anyone needs a little recommendation on how to fall asleep, my aunt gave me this tip and it works like a charm. You just pick a category and then go through the Alphabet and try to think of items that fit in that court category that start with each letter.

Neal Freyman
So say, national parks, you go arches, big Bend, Carlsburg Caverns, Death Valley, Everglades, so on until you reach, you know, g or H and then you're passed out. I like that strategy a lot. I'm gonna try it tonight. Now let's hear a word from our friends at Robinhood. I'm reading a book series right now called the Gray man.

Toby Howell
And the main character always says, hope is not a strategy. And I think it applies to investing, too. You and the gray man are right, Toby. Hope is not what you should be basing your investment decisions on. But Robinhood has tools to help.

Neal Freyman
They offer a host of exchange traded funds, aka ETF's, and they could recommend you a portfolio of them curated based on your financial goals and risk tolerance. Or you could always pick your own. I love the diversification an ETF strategy gives you. No need to find the exact stock you think is going to do well. It's better to get exposure to a curated bundle of stocks instead.

Toby Howell
But keep in mind that diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. You got all that from a fictional book series? Hey, I'm a man of culture, okay? I have a range we know Toby. Learn more about Robinhood app in the App Store or Google Play Store.

Neal Freyman
Disclosures investing is risky. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of any ETF carefully before investing. Be sure to review a prospectus before investing. More information in the description of this podcast going to a pharmacy these days is like shopping at a trader Joe's at 08:00 p.m. On a Sunday.

You're going to find a lot of things out of stock drug shortages in the US have risen to an all time high. According to the University of Utah Drug Information Service, which began tracking shortages in 2001. A total of 323 drugs were in tight supply in the first quarter, topping the previous peak of 320 in 2014. This drug shortage crisis is taking no prisoners. All drug classes are vulnerable, including life saving allergy treatments, chemotherapy, chemotherapy medications, diabetes drugs like ozempic, and ADHD meds like Adderall.

The shortages are causing havoc for patients who may need to visit several pharmacies to find a drug, wait longer until it's available, or pay more for a brand name instead of a generic. And it's all the more frustrating because there is no easy fix. The shortages are being caused by so many factors that it's like playing whack a mole. Where do you even start tackling the problem? The manufacturing shutdowns, the broken pharma supply chain, the misaligned profit incentives.

Toby, break it down for us. Yeah, shortages can arise for a lot of different reasons. One, manufacturing complexity to heavy regulation. Those two things mean there's a lot, lot of room for error, a lot of room for mistakes. I mean, if the FDA comes and inspects a manufacturing plant, finds a little quality area error, it could cause the entire manufacturing plant to shut down, which, boom.

Toby Howell
Suddenly you're without a major supplier. Also, you mentioned misinlied profit incentives. Generic drug market works. They've. It's kind of been set up for companies to compete on price.

The FDA looks at all generics as the same. So the only way to differentiate yourself from the competition is price, which makes them not a very high priority for these pharmaceutical companies, diminishes their motivation to produce them whatsoever. So there's almost this race to a bottom when it comes to either halting production or taking shortcuts when it comes to quality on these generic drugs, which down the supply chain leads to these shortages that we're seeing. And many of the drugs that are in these shortages are those generics. There's just, you know, patients are the ones that are suffering here.

Neal Freyman
And the manufacturers say, well, we don't really make money on these anyway, so we're not going to invest much into redundancies in our supply chain to get these back on the market. I also think you can't overlook the surge in demand for certain drugs that are creating huge supply demand imbalances. One of those, obviously, is those diabetes drugs, those weight loss drugs like Manjaro. Eli Lilly said they had an unparalleled surge in demand over the past year for Manjaro and its sister drug Zepp bound. Meanwhile, one of the poster child's poster children for the drug shortages is Adderall.

And there's been a huge spike in demand over the past decade. Demand is up 45% for stimulants. Providers wrote more than 73 million prescriptions for stimulants in 2021, right at the peak of the. Of the pandemic, which was, you know, 45% higher than a decade earlier. And drug makers were just not prepared for this spike in demand.

Toby Howell
Right. And also adding to that Adderall spike in demand, they started being able to be prescribed via telehealth, which just led to even more of those subscriptions being handed out and even less of the supply side being able to catch up. The type of drug also comes into play, meaning if it's an injectable or not, because injectables are the most complex manufacturing supply chain, have the most things that could potentially go wrong. And so injectables are those things like the ozempics of the world. So that's another thing the classification of drug also feeds into, whether it's facing a shortage or not.

Neal Freyman
What stuns me the most about this is the lack of transparency that we have into why these. Why these shortages are happening. We've floated how many different types of factors, but we actually just don't really know because manufacturers are not required to say why there are shortages. In this study, 60% of cases, manufacturers said they didn't, did not know, or did not provide any reasons why their drugs were in a short supply. So more than half of these drugs are in shortages, and all we can do is conjecture about why that may be the case.

Toby Howell
For the last few months, it looked increasing, like Tesla was going to conduct a round of layoffs. And even though there isn't a combustion engine inside at Tesla, where there's smoke, there's fire, Tesla is indeed laying off 10% of its global workforce. That translates to around 14,000 employees. We don't know which teams will be affected yet, but two long term execs, one from the powertrain and energy division, the other Tesla's policy chair, are no longer with the company. The layoffs fall on the heels of a no good, dirty rotten quarter for Tesla, where it missed delivery estimates by a wide margin and even had a rare year over year drop in sales.

Some analysts are even predicting that Tesla sales will shrink overall for the year, given tepid cybertruck production and demand, as well as a lack of new models hitting the market. Neil? Tesla ended last year with just over 140,000 employees, which is double its total from three years ago. Did it just get too big, too fast, or is this more of a current reflection of the current state of the market? Tesla will say that it is in between two growth waves right now.

Neal Freyman
The first was propelled by the model three car and the Model Y. And we're in this trough right now before they say they're going to roll out their new models, one of which may be this $25,000 affordable car, or a robo taxi, which is a self driving car. Those, those are set to be introduced maybe soon and go into production in 2026. But what is it now, 2024, that is two years of this stagnant lineup that they have. So Elon Musk, in a memo to employees, said, we're preparing for the next phase of growth.

We're clearly not in a growth phase right now. There is nothing I hate more than layoffs. But he said, it must be done because these cars are just not selling like they used TO. Right. I was reading some of the industry reaction to thiS.

Toby Howell
A lot of people have felt like Tesla actually has been underemployed for years now, given the size and the scope of their ambitions. But Tesla has always had this very scrappy startup mentality. But if you actually zoom out for a second, Tesla is a 20 year old company at this point. YoU don't want this overworked culture, this high, this culture of very high turnover. They've been able to paper over it via very good recruiting, but this latest round of layoffs cannot help.

It's definitely not going to help in morale at the company right now. It feels like Morale is at an AlL time low, and YoU're right where it feels like it's regrouping itself. It's in between these moments of growth. The entire EV market is also facing these headwinds. Let's see if they can kind of emerge out stronger on the other side.

Yeah. There were new, there's new data about EV sales versus hybrids in the first quarter, and hybrids are just lapping the field right now. EV sales were up only about 2.7% in the quarter. In the US, meanwhile, hybrid sales rose 43%. Ford is going all in on hybrids.

Neal Freyman
It said it's going to offer a hybrid version of every vehicle in its us lineup by 2030. That is where the growth market is right now. Tesla does not have any hybrids in its lineup. It has five or six EV's. It just rolled out the Cybertruck, but now it's halting deliveries until April 20 because of problems there.

So it's just not really finding ways to spark itself. Right. Tesla's upcoming earnings report is coming up on next Tuesday. Can help it calm those investors worst fears, or it can help stoke them even further. Analysts expect Tesla to report its worst quarterly profit since 2021.

Toby Howell
Worst quarterly revenue since 2022. So it's a very low bar for Tesla right now. Let's see if they can kind of limp over it. Everyone's looking forward to August 8, when Elon Musk said Tesla is going to be introducing its robo taxi, whatever that looks like. Blue text might be going out of fashion, also because Apple is no longer the top dog in the smartphone market.

Neal Freyman
According to a report from IDC, Apple's iPhone shipments plunged 10% in the first quarter, which put it behind Samsung as the number one smartphone maker in the world. The drop is the steepest since COVID lockdowns. And another sign people are thinking different about Apple's handheld supremacy. And here's the biggest problem. While Tesla can blame its troubles on the industry wide slowdown for EV's, Apple cannot pull the same move.

The smartphone market is booming, with producers shipping 7.8% more than they did a year ago. So while its rivals are growing, Apple is declining. And that's something in large part, is increased competition in China, a crucial market where Apple gets 20% of its revenue. Domestic manufacturers like Xiaomi and Transom are taking a big bite out of Apple, with phones that are friendlier on the wallet and popular around the world. Toby, I haven't checked the weather but I would bet that clouds are forming in Cupertino.

Toby Howell
It absolutely is. What's also super interesting to me is one you mentioned that the smartphone market as a whole is experiencing these tailwinds. But also the average purchase price for smartphones has been on the rise, meaning consumers are increasingly opting for these pricier, high end models. And that should play right into Apple's hands, because they've always had the average ASp. Average.

Average. It's called average selling price in the industry. But they are. Even despite this kind of turn towards a pricier model, they're still seeing sales fall as consumers are becoming more price sensitive. So that, to me, is the biggest alarm bells here, is that they should be dominating right now, but they're not.

Neal Freyman
No. And that's because of these. This heated competition in China, where these budget smartphone makers are absolutely killing it right now. Taking a huge bite of its market share. Trans, and I mentioned at the top, increased its shipments by 85%.

They have three different models that they sell in China and around the world. It's the largest smartphone maker in Africa, actually, in Xiaomi, their market share is up to 14% from 11% last year. They grew their shipments 33%. So these two companies, along with Huawei and the south korean giant Samsung, are really putting a lot of pressure in Apple and Asia, which is where they do a ton of their sales. And at the same time, Apple is looking at the chinese market right now.

Toby Howell
There's definitely some headwinds when it comes to remember those devices were banned from official government positions, and it's trying to diversify its manufacturing away from China right now. Tim Cook was visiting Vietnam this past week as they're trying to grow their supply chain there. And then also, they made $14 billion of iPhones in India last fiscal year, doubling its production there. So you can see how this reliance on China is something that Apple is well aware of, both from a sales perspective and a manufacturing perspective. And they're trying to diversify away from China.

Up next, boomers aren't moving, and ghost kitchens may be a thing of the past.

Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
Boomers are currently the empty nest generation as most of their children have moved out. But the issue the housing market is reckoning with is one, they're not leaving their nests. And two, their nests are way too big. According to the Wall Street Journal and Redfin, around 28% of all us homes with three or more bedrooms are owned by people between the ages of 60 and 78 living by themselves or with just one other adult. To put that into perspective, millennials living with children own just 14% of those bigger homes.

She had another sign that boomers are still the kings and queens of the housing market and plan to ride their housing golden ticket for as long as they can. A recent survey from Fannie Mae found that most Americans 60 years and older don't intend to ever move. Neil for years, millennials and younger generations have been waiting for boomers to pack up, downsize, and potentially relieve some supply pressure on the housing market. But they just aren't budget. And it's very clear why.

Neal Freyman
It's because rates have skyrocketed. They rose so fast, so fast, so fast, so high, so quickly as the fed has jacked up interest rates since 2022, there's one stat I want people to take away from this podcast. Here it is. And it shows why the housing market is so frozen right now. So between 19 and 98 and 2020, there was never a time when more than 40% of american mortgage holders had locked in rates more than one percentage point below market conditions.

But at the end of 2023, about 70% of all mortgage holders had rates more than three percentage points below what the market would offer them if they tried to take out a new loan. So there is no reason why you would move if 70% of all mortgage holders would have to get a rate that is three percentage points higher than what they're currently paying. And most boomers have already paid off their mortgages anyway. Frozen is certainly the word that comes to mind here. And it isn't boomers fault, necessarily.

Toby Howell
One, that they got a great deal on housing, but then, two, even if they wanted to move, there aren't a lot of options out there for downsizing. Supply just isn't there. Home building activity just plummeted in the wake of the housing crisis. Also, during COVID it's been depressed for years, and it's contributed to this historic decline in construction of new homes. So even if boomers did want to take, pack up, downsize, because, again, they are empty nesters right now.

That probably just lead to more competition for those single family or single bedroom homes that millennials are probably competing over for their starter homes right now. So it's not necessarily boomers fault. Like, you can't fault them for having these awesome deals and then not having anywhere to move. And they have had an awesome deal, because if they bought a house, say, in the seventies, their. Their home price, the median home price has increased more than ten x.

Neal Freyman
So they are sitting on so much wealth right now. Boomers are kind of loaded. They own half of all the $32 trillion in home equity. The United States, they are the wealthiest generation by far. They timed it right.

I don't know how they did it, but they got these. They got these real estate deals. They bought their homes a long time ago, and there's been incredible appreciation in home prices, and they're just sitting on so much money, they're not going to move because they'd have to pay so much more in mortgages, and they would have to pay a lot of capital gains tax as well. The crazy part, too, is boomers keep buying. Boomers made up 31% of home buyers in 2023, while millennials made up 38%.

Toby Howell
So even though they are eventually being overpassed by millennials entering the housing market, they're still accounting for 31% of new home sales. And a lot of it is because they are sitting on these piles of cash and can afford to buy homes in cash and not take on these higher interest rates. So, yes, it seems like a lot of things went very right for boomers, and they're still going right to this day. Yeah. And this is more than just a housing story too, because there's overall economic malaise.

Neal Freyman
There's this vibe session going around. Even if the economy is doing well, people aren't feeling so great. And a lot of experts point to the housing market and the ability that you can't afford a house. And this unaffordability crisis is one of the main reasons that people are feeling so bad about their own personal finances when the economy is doing well. So this is really a big us economy story as well.

Ghosts are known to suddenly appear and vanish just as quickly, and ghost kitchens are no different. These spaces, essentially virtual restaurants that focus exclusively on delivery, are firmly in their bust area following a boom during COVID the New York Times reported. Kitchen United, a large operator of ghost kitchens that received $175 million in funding and was backed by Kroger, announced it was shutting down at the end of last year. Wendy's jammed the breaks on plans to open 700 ghost kitchens. Applebee's closed its virtual dining options completely.

There's carnage everywhere, and it's carnage that few could have expected. Ghost kitchens were seen as the savior for restaurants when the pandemic shut down dining rooms. At the time, the concept made so much sense. More people are ordering delivery from apps. Here we've got these industrial kitchens that aren't being put to use.

Let's pool our resources so that multiple restaurants can share the same kitchen and sling burgers to send to people's homes. The buzz around ghost kitchens was so deafening that real estate firm CBRE predicted that ghost kitchens would account for 21% of restaurant sales by 2025. And that is certainly going to be off by a mile. I was going to be off by a mile too, because I thought ghost kitchens were going to stick around around. Because it does just make so much sense.

Toby Howell
You don't necessarily need all this overhead that seating and staffing requires. Why not just make the food? Because we, we do live in this delivery culture right now. But I think it didn't factor in human nature as much because humans like to connect with the brand. They like to sit in a restaurant, they like to dine out with people.

And so as customers started going out to eat, as we emerged from the pandemic, they started craving that relationship that you develop with a brand, and you just don't have that when you. It is a faceless operation operating out of a ghost kitchen. You combine that with the fact that there were some serious quality control issues as well. I mean, the most famous ghost kitchen operation that went south was Mister Beast. And Mister and Beast Burger.

There was tons of complaints around the quality of product that he was serving, and so eventually that relationship fractured. So the fact that people do want to connect with the brand combined with quality control issues kind of spelled the writing on the wall for ghost kitchen. But I'm not ready to write them off completely because we are in a delivery era. I'm not. I don't think that people are going to order less delivery in the future.

Neal Freyman
I have to expect that delivery is only going to go up. I just think these brands need to not apply this very haphazard approach to what the brands that they're building in in the virtual kitchen space felt very haphazard, very slap dash. They thought that they could just put pizza or french fries or burgers or Thai food and people would order it because they were just on these apps searching. I think you'd really need to build a smart brand around a ghost kitchen and put a little more effort and marketing into it. But if you do that, I don't see why this couldn't work.

Toby Howell
Right. Remember, Uber Eats removed 8000 storefronts from its app over the last year over complaints that, yeah, it was basically people just copy and pasting the same iterations of the same brand while operating out of the same ghost kitchen. So you're right, I don't think it's time to fully write them off. But you do need to be a little bit more cognizant of how you're presenting these brands on these apps. You thought, I forgot, but I would never fail you like that.

It's time to wrap up Tuesday's show with Toby's friends, where I dig deep into the depths of the Internet to find a trend to share with you all. And today, I've emerged with the news that cats are finally getting their moment in Hollywood's spotlight. Cats have long been regulated to the periphery of big box office motion pictures because of the reputation for being notoriously difficult to train. But recently, directors have been including them as more major characters. There's a Maine coon named Lucio from the new Netflix series Ripley, the Tuxedo, cat Frodo from a quiet place, part two, and a scottish fold named Alfie from Apple TV's Argyle.

All cats, all named characters, all mold breakers in their own right. Usually it's canines, not cats, getting the leading roles in movies, with cats regulated to animated movies or villainous sidekicks. So why the sudden main character turn? Well, cats are kind of zeitgeist y right now. Taylor Swift posed with her cat in the time person of the year photoshoot.

One of the more popular video games of 2023 was called Stray, where you play as a stray cat. Maybe cats just needed the opportunity to show what they're made of. Justice for cats. There's a definitely a wave of momentum around cats right now. A study published last year found that they displayed at least 276 different facial expressions, which was far more than people expected.

Neal Freyman
So there is this growing awareness that cats are maybe a little more expressive than, uh, than you might think. They're also, uh. You can train them. It's really hard. But if you spend the work, it takes twelve to 14 weeks to train a cat to be able to, quote unquote, perform in a movie or tv show.

They need to get acclimated in the set. You need to put them in the set a week before time. But once you train them, once you put in the work, feels like they're pretty good actors, right? I think a lot of directors just wrote them off because they were setting them up to fail. You just toss them into a set.

Toby Howell
They haven't had time to become comfortable there. You gotta give the cats time to settle in. Also, what makes a good cat? It's not the ability to do tricks necessarily. The big thing you're looking for out of a cat in any animal, all set is really for it to just be very chill around humans, around a camera in their face.

So it's really the chill felines that you want, not necessarily the ones that can move every one of their 276 different facial expressions. Now that cats are getting a more leading role, we need to extract them from these tropes that they've been boxed into. There's that classic jump scare in a horror movie that was pioneered by alien. There's that indicator of solitary life. If you go into this hermit's house, they probably have a lot of cats.

Neal Freyman
There's the demon cats. And then the one that I think we really need to, to make raise awareness about is the evil villain cat. I'm thinking Mister Billingsworth for Doctor Evil, Mister Filch and misses Norris. Cats have always been this prop that the evil villain is stroking. Think if maybe they should get more dogs or other reptiles or other pets and extract the cat from its role as this villain's plaything.

Toby Howell
I love that there's this justice for cats movement right now. And honestly, you do have to credit Taylor Swift a little bit because Argyle's director did say that, hey, I saw Taylor Swift lugging around her cat during this documentary and said, hey, why shouldn't I have a cat be a more main character here. So justice for cats. Keep an eye out for more cat main characters going forward. All right.

Neal Freyman
Thanks for that trend, Toby. That is our show for the day. Thanks so much for listening and have a wonderful start to your Tuesday. If you're feeling inspired by anything that was covered in Morning Brew daily, give us a shout at our email morningbrewdailybrew.com. Let's roll the credits.

Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Yuchino Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio, hair and makeup, gets 10 hours of sleep at night.

Devon Emery is our chief content officer. And our, our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.

Toby Howell
Let's run it back tomorrow.