The High-Speed Rail Connecting LA to Vegas & Express Goes Bankrupt

This episode delves into the bankruptcy of the high-speed rail project connecting Los Angeles to Las Vegas and the implications of Express clothing brand filing for bankruptcy.

1. The LA to Vegas high-speed rail project promised significant reductions in travel time but was halted by financial issues.
2. Express filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy due to failing to adapt to the fast-evolving fashion trends and market demands.
3. The episode highlights broader economic trends affecting various sectors, including transportation and retail.
4. The discussion extends to other current affairs, such as potential changes to stock market operations and emerging beverage trends.
5. The hosts also draw attention to consumer behavior changes in response to economic conditions and technological advancements.

1: Introduction to High-Speed Rail Project

Overview of the planned high-speed rail project and its initial promise. Neil Freiman: "High speed rail is coming to the United States."

2: Discussion on Express Bankruptcy

Analysis of the reasons behind Express's financial troubles and its market position. Toby Howell: "Express is Siri in a chat Chibi world."

3: Economic and Market Trends

Examination of broader economic trends affecting both the rail project and Express. Neil Freiman: "It's not easy being a mall-based retailer these days."

4: NYSE 24/7 Trading Proposal

Consideration of the New York Stock Exchange's idea to allow 24/7 stock trading. Toby Howell: "Cryptocurrency is probably the biggest one where that market stays open all the time."

5: Global Beverage Trends - Bubble Tea

Discussion on the rising global trend of bubble tea and its market dynamics. Neil Freiman: "It's such an interesting type of product, very customizable."

1. Consider the long-term viability of infrastructure projects before investing.
2. Stay adaptable to fast-changing market trends to sustain business operations.
3. Keep abreast of economic conditions that could impact various sectors.
4. Explore emerging markets and trends for potential business opportunities.
5. Evaluate consumer behavior shifts to better align products and services with current demands.

Episode 307: Neal and Toby chat about the big transportation news of Brightline West breaking ground of the high-speed rail line connecting Southern California and Las Vegas. Then, Express is the latest once-before retail giant that is filing for bankruptcy. Also, the New York Stock Exchange is seeing if you have any interest in trading during the late night hours while you’re at your favorite 24/7 diner. Next, the growing trend of boba tea turning its founders into billionaires. Meanwhile, streaming has become so easy to sign-up and cancel that it's becoming part of our normal watching habits. Lastly, Kansai International Airport in Japan is among the best in the world because of its flawless luggage record.

People

Neil Freiman, Toby Howell

Companies

Brightline West, Express, New York Stock Exchange

Content Warnings:

None

A
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With discover limitations, apply. See terms creditcard good morning, brew daily show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, LA to Vegas in just 2 hours, that could become a reality thanks to a new high speed rail line.

Toby Howell
Ben, should you be able to trade stocks 24 hours a day, seven days a week? The New York Stock Exchange is exploring that very question. It's Tuesday, April 23. Let's ride.

Neil Freiman
Today is National Shakespeare Day. Because while we don't know exactly when Billy was born, in April 1564, the 23rd seems like a pretty good bet. And you can honor the baddest bard in the land by infusing your conversation with a little shakespearean flair today. Here are a few tips. Instead of saying it, simply use the letter t, like tis.

Or twould make your verbs sing by adding ith to the end. And when you're mad, yell, I bite my thumb at you. Toby, are you gonna use any of these? So I should have said tis. Tuesday, April 23.

Toby Howell
Let's ride it. Is that the way to do it? That's the way to do it. At least today. But it is crazy going through Shakespeare's works and looking at all the phrases that he coined that we just take for granted today.

Neil Freiman
I mean, in a pickle, wear your heart on your sleeve. Wild goose chase all that glitters is not gold. Love is blind and. Riz. Wow.

Toby Howell
So. No, I'm just joking. Bent. Riz. I was gonna say Netflix has stolen a few of those.

The only person to coin more frizzes might be Jerry Seinfeld. But for now, let's hear a word from our friends over at Robin Hood. We've said it before, but it's never too early and never too late to start thinking about retirement. Yeah, retirement doesn't always sound like the most fun topic, but it should be. It's about the future and anticipation and all that fun stuff.

Neil Freiman
Right, Toby? Exactly. It's something you live with, like a stray cat that was out in the rain one day and you just had to let it in. You had to. Okay.

Or like a plant, you keep an eye on it and feed it all year with contributions and if you open. An IRA with Robinhood, they'll match your contributions. Grow, plant, grow. Or if you're feeling like an overachiever, you can set it up. In addition to your existing employer sponsored retirement accounts, there are a plethora of.

Toby Howell
ETF's to choose from. Or again, if you're feeling like an overachiever, customize your own plan. Learn more about the Robinhood app in the App Store or Google Play Store. Disclosures investing is risky. Limitations apply to both iras and 401 ks.

Neil Freiman
Refer to the IR's for more information. More info in the description of this podcast well, here's a headline that may sound like an April Fool's joke, but it is, in fact, very real. High speed rail is coming to the United States yesterday, construction broke ground in Las Vegas on a rail line that leaders called America's first true high speed rail system. The $12 billion, 218 miles project will connect Vegas and the La suburb of Rancho Cucamonga, which also happens to be the best name for a city ever. With a target date of 2028 before LA hosts the Summer Olympics, this rail line won't be run by Amtrak.

It's from a private company called Brightline west, whose sister firm already operates a rail line in Florida between Miami and Orlando. So far, that Florida route has been successful, and it wants to take that model and apply it to the Mojave desert. What does this high speed rail mean, actually? Well, Brightlines trains will travel between Vegas and LA at max speeds of 186 mph, completing the journey in just over 2 hours. Currently, it'll take you at least four to drive between the cities, and it's bound to be longer with traffic.

I've done it. It's not fun. So, Toby, is this the project that finally kicks off the high speed rail boom in the US? I think so. I don't want to jinx it though, because we've just been burned so many times in the past.

Toby Howell
I mean, if you just look at how California has done when they tried to build high speed rail. Remember, there was one from LA to San Francisco that was approved by voters all the way back in 2008. But now, due to rising costs and a bunch of other issues, a 2022 business plan forecasted that it would now cost. The project would cost $105 billion. So anytime you hear the words high speed rail, America and California, you're not very bullish on it.

But this project seems to have crossed all of its dotted its eyes, crossed its t's, and it looks like it's underway. Yeah, this is why I'm bullish on this project because there is very little red tape. They have the right of way already because I 15 goes from LA to Vegas. And what they're doing is just building the rail line right in the middle, on the median of this, of this interstate. So they're not going to have to deal with a lot of the red tape, the land use regulations, the legal headaches that come with that La to San Francisco route.

Neil Freiman
They're already going on a piece of land that they can build on. So that's why this project costs 12 billion as opposed to 105 billion. Just the so called train tracks are already existing. For this, for this to be successful, whether people will use it, I mean, California, Vegas, we know people love to drive there. So whether they'll pay up.

And at least in Florida, this costs a one way ticket, $80. So I don't know if they have a price point yet, but it's going to be probably cheaper than a. Than a plane flight, but it might be the right amount of distance for this rail line to exist. Just over 218 miles. A little too short for a flight, a little too long for a four hour drive.

Toby Howell
Right. That's Brightline's whole business plan in a nutshell. There is that they do look for cities that are too near for air travel. But then, yeah, it's a very annoying drive. And then also it's gonna be a nice experience.

They're going to have snacks coming down the aisle, your high speed wifi on the train, all the good stuff that you would expect out of a train and at around airline prices. So I hope this happens, though. Cause just, oh, my gosh, America's high speed rail game is so weak. But the Palm beach one has done very well. And I think Brightline has kind of gotten this down to a bit of a science at this point.

Neil Freiman
Yeah, I mean, people on the northeast are probably wondering, wait, isn't the Acela that goes from DC to Boston high speed rail? And actually not technically, it maxes out at 150. It only goes that fast on 41 miles of the entire route because this. Because the Acela needs to share with commuter rail and freight at the same time. So it's not really technically a high speed rail, which according to international standards is 160 above this.

La to Vegas rail is going to be as fast as the bullet trains in Japan, but a little slower than the expansive high speed rail network they have in China. It's not easy being a mall based retailer these days. And the once trendy fashion brand Express is the latest casualty yesterday, the company, which also includes bonobos and up west brands, announced it is filing for chapter eleven bankruptcy, closing 115 locations in the process as it tries to dig itself out of a hole that was created by a good old fashioned decline in sales. Revenue has fallen 10% since 2019, which doesn't sound too bad on the surface, but it is bad when you compare it to the broader red hot apparel industry. Express just found itself on the wrong side of too many trends.

Toby Howell
The formal and smart casual market that Express serves hasn't really caught consumers eyes in recent years as clothing becomes more casual. And if you're a clothing outlet with a bunch of locations in malls, you're going to struggle these days. Neil this is a story I feel like we've heard before. Yeah, Express is Siri in a chat Chibi world. It's just not representative of the current era we're in in the apparently barrel industry.

Neil Freiman
I think Morning Brews writer Molly Liebergahl put it best. She wrote, its clothes just, its clothes just kind of look like clothes. There's nothing exceptional about them. And yet express is getting hit from all sides. Athleisure, lululemon, fast fashion, sheen and h and M and Zara and whatever old Navy is they're all getting, they're all putting pressure on express.

And it just was in this messy middle where none of its clothes stand out, stood out to anybody and they didn't get with the trends of what people are wearing to work these days. Yeah, it's been a fall from grace for express because if you go back to 2010, it went public as the 6th largest specialty retail apparel brand in the US, and then even in 2015, its quarterly sales hit 765 million. Compare that to the second quarter of last year, they sank to $435 million. So it's just been a long, slow decline for them. This isn't a pure bankruptcy, though, because they are trying to do a court approved sale to a group of mall owners led by Simon Property Group in Brookfield Properties.

Toby Howell
This is a trend that we've seen in the past, these kind of shopping center staples being bailed out by the very companies that have stakes in their, in their success. So we've seen Simon Brookfield do things like involve the bailing out of Forever 21, Brooks Brothers, JC Penney's. All these struggling mall retailers are being kind of supported by their landlords, essentially. So it's this weird symbiotic arrangement that hasn't been working too well, but it's better than just letting them fade off. Into oblivion for little vertical integration and so if you want to, Express is starting all these closing sales at the 95 stores that it's closing.

Neil Freiman
So if you want to score some cheap clothes, I would definitely look up which express stores are closing in your local area and get to those stores. Moving on. Of all the businesses in the world, the New York Stock Exchange may have the most well known hours. It opens at 930 Eastern with the ringing of the bell and it closes at 04:00 p.m. With another ringing of the bell.

But that could change. The exchange is thinking about going full diner mode and operating 24/7 allowing you to buy and sell stocks at all hours of the day. According to the Financial Times, the New York Stock Exchange's data analytics team polled market participants about the pros and cons of going 24 hours, and it'll take that feedback into making a decision. Currently, investors can trade equities on the exchange between 930 and four. And there are some windows pre open and post close where you can also place trades.

But this is 2024 after all. And, well, something called the computer exists, making these strict hours seem like something out of the cretaceous period or at the very least 1890. A bunch of assets, including cryptocurrencies, US treasury bonds and stock futures can be bought and sold at any time. Toby, good idea, bad idea for the New York Stock Exchange to go 24 hours. I think it's just inevitable idea at this point because as you said, a lot of trends have been forcing the industry this way.

Toby Howell
Cryptocurrency is probably the biggest one where that market stays open all the time. And retail traders have become extremely accustomed to having access to liquidity at all hours of the day. So I do think this is driven by retail investing activity, though, because if you actually look at institutional investors, they're not going to be placing big trades at 04:00 a.m. In the middle of the night because there's just not enough liquidity being traded at that point. So this is very much a retail trader spurred kind of trend right here.

Neil Freiman
Yeah. Speaking of retail traders, just look at Robinhood. Robin Hood, in its recent earnings report said that 25% of total trading volume took place outside of traditional market hours. Robinhood was just one of several retail brokerages that do allow trading in some securities across all hours of the day. And it, it said investors traded more than $10 billion in volume over the, since it launched that.

So Robin Hood seeing a huge, I mean, 25% of its total trading outside of market hours, that's a huge chunk of its business, not in between 930 and four. So it obviously sees a huge growth market here. And Rob and its CEO Vlad Tenev said if you were designing the market from scratch, you would never, like today, you would never have it at 930 to four. You would have it open 24/7 kind of like how crypto, which was created in 2008 and 2009, uh, is operating 24/7 imagine if Elon Musk tweets something on Saturday or Sunday and you're like, oh, I'm very bearish or bullish on Tesla right now. I want a place to trade.

And now you can. Yeah. And there's certainly interest beyond just the New York Stock Exchange in this area as well. There's this startup called 24 Exchange, backed by Steve Cohen's venture fund, and it's seeking SEC approval to launch the first round the clock exchange. So if the New York Stock Exchange doesn't do this, I do think another company will come along.

Toby Howell
And that's the biggest thing here, is that SEC still has to look into these proposals and see if they want to pass them. But people are just saying, let the market decides if this is something that they want. We'll see if there is actually a business model. The SEC is not there to decide whether there is a viable, like, commercial path forward for these companies. So I do think we're going to see it within the next few years or so, if not at the New York Stock Exchange with someone else.

Up next, my favorite segment of the week, Toby's trends.

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Neil Freiman
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For sure. Yeah. What you finding? Okay, for starters, adjusting the placement of lead gen forms on your video can boost leads by up to 300%. 300%.

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Toby Howell
It really is. It's even got insights from platforms like HubSpot, Hootsuite and TikTok. All good stuff. All right, all right. Drop the link.

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Well, if it isn't our old friend Toby's trends. The segment where I tell you about a cool little trend I have my eye on so you can look cool in front of your colleague or your crush. If those two are the same for you, I do wish you the best. But today's trend is bubble tea or boba tea or the tea that has those slimy balls of tapioca in it that slither up your straw and down your throat. Whatever name you know it by, it's creating billionaires over in China.

China's third largest bubble tea chain, Batchai Baidao, went public today, raising $330 million in the process. Good for Hong Kong's biggest listing since November of last year. It's also big enough to give the company's husband and wife founders a combined net worth of around $2.5 billion. And it's far from the only big bubble chain out there. Another company that opened in 2008 now has 8000 shops across China that did $787 million in sales last year.

Mixou Group, another big bubble tea purveyor, calls itself the world's second largest drink chain behind Starbucks by a number of stores. It's got more than 32,000 locations across China and 4000 locations in eleven other countries. Neil, the chinese market is full of bubble tea chains that are minting billionaires that we've never even heard of. No, but they're, we're going to hear them soon because the reason they're ipoing they're going public is to raise all this money to plot global expansion. They're, they're setting up locations across Korea, Vietnam, all over East Asia.

Neil Freiman
And now they're definitely going to set their eyes on the US market. This is such an interesting type of product, type of beverage because in this mold that Starbucks has been going in very customizable, very personalized. You can go in and get an infinite number of customizations. You can choose between different types of teas, you can choose between different types of fruit. You can get various bubbles in there, you can get special editions in there.

And then also some chains are offering a little alcohol in there. So if you're getting it after 05:00 p.m. You want to say, okay, I'll have a little fun. But no, it does seem like this is the general trend of you going into the shop and feeling like the world is your oyster. I wonder if Shakespeare coined that.

But this whole personalization trend of, like, I go into Chipotle, all this, all these things, I can really make this beverage what I want. There's no set thing for me. What's interesting, too, is that Baidao, which is the company that went public today, they sell a half liter of bubble tea for a little over $2. So it's very much on the cheap side. The industry average is closer to $5.

Toby Howell
So it's always been this very cheap product. So that's why even though China has experienced this period of economic slowdown, bidao sales have grown more than 56% from 2021 to 2023. So it's kind of bucking the trend there as well. It's interesting to me, too, that bubble tea hasn't been around that that long. It's only originated in Taiwan during the 1980s, so it is still relatively like a new ish entrance into the drink scene.

And you're right, I do think that over in China, massive, massive company creating billionaires, and I think they're only going to get bigger once they. Yeah, but we'll see, because the US really loves its coffee. A new survey just came out yesterday saying that 67% of adults in the US said they had drunk coffee in the past day, which is a more than 20 year high. And back in 2004, it was less than half, and now it's 67%. So it's going up against a lot of competition, because in China, they don't have this attachment to coffee as much as they do tea.

Neil Freiman
And here we really love our coffee. So I think it'll be interesting to watch what happens in the US market as all of these bubble chain cheese, you know, come and compete against the Starbucks and the Dunkins of the world. Should we put some balls in tea or in coffee? Little tapioca balls and tea. Do you like bubble tea, though?

Toby Howell
I love bubble tea. It's like my guilty pleasure. I don't know. I think it's very fun to eat. Yeah, it adds a little something something to your drink.

Let me know if this experience sounds familiar. You keep seeing thirst traps of Jeremy Allen White on TikTok, so you finally decide to bite the bullet and subscribe to Hulu so you can watch the bear. But after you finish the show and start to dream of opening your own restaurant, you slowly forget about that hulu subscription. Allow me to blow your mind. You can just cancel your subscription after you've watched the one show you like.

And more and more people are doing just that. There's a big shift in consumer behavior that shows we're ditching the monogamous relationships cable providers lock you into and embracing the polyamorous life. Streamers open up so called serial churners. Those who subscribe to a platform then cancel once they've watched a show they like, accounted for about 40% of all new subscriptions and cancellations across the streaming industry last year. That means nearly 30 million people canceled three or more streaming subscriptions in the last two years, but a third resubscribed within six months.

These serial churners are a force to be reckoned with, Neil. They are. This is absolutely crazy. And it's frustrating. As frustrating as it is to cancel any other subscription you have, it seems to be relatively simple to do it for a streaming service.

Neil Freiman
So we're seeing very high rates of people canceling, and it's only growing. I've definitely talked to friends who say, yeah, I'm getting Apple for severance, and then I'm going to cancel it. I'm going to get Max for White Lotus and then I'm going to cancel it. And it's very a la carte with the way people are treating their television pics these days, right? And it's reshaping the entire entertainment industry, too, because traditional media like Paramount, Warner Bros.

Toby Howell
Discovery, Disney, they're also trying to navigate this new paradigm where they're shifting from the cable bundle, which was intensely profitable, very profitable for these companies, to streaming, which is not very profitable, which the downstream effect is that these companies are cutting investment in new shows. A number of scripted shows in the US suffered its steepest drop in 2023 in the last 15 years, because again, if you're having so much churn and you're having such uneven revenues, it's very hard to invest into new shows. But paradoxically, that's exactly what you need in order to keep customers around, because you do need this almost steady stream of coming soons on the platform in order to keep people locked in. Because you're right. If you subscribe for severance and then severance runs out, and then there's nothing new on the horizon, you're probably going to cancel this subscription.

So it's this weird, paradoxical relationship. Yeah. I think one reason why people are canceling is the lack of robust content on all of these platforms. And then another one is just the price. I mean, there's been, what is it called?

Neil Freiman
Streamflation. I don't think Shakespeare coined that one either. But prices have gone up across the board. Disney plus and Hulu both raised the price of their commercial free tiers by $3 a month last year. Netflix, the standard plan, is now over $15 a month.

And then the average American with a streaming subscription pays an average of $61 a month for four services, which is an increase from $48 a year ago. I think if prices weren't as skyrocketing as they were, we wouldn't lead see the mass cancellations that we are now. So price has, has a lot to do with it. And streamers are trying to figure out different ways to keep subscribers on their platforms from canceling. You know what makes the most sense, by the way, to keep subscribers on is to bundle multiple platforms together.

Toby Howell
So you have new content from a variety of sources, which is literally just cable. Once again, we've joked about this a lot, but we are seeing this like Disney's bundling, Disney Plus, Hulu, ESPN, they also have this Fox Sports, Warner Bros. Sports streaming service that they're scheduled launch. So I think we're going to reinvent cable this time in ten years. Well, that is a good point, because Netflix, as we talked about, has the most robust type of content on its platform, from reality tv show to more highly produced dramas.

Neil Freiman
And its rates of cancellation are much lower than anybody else in the industry. So maybe that's a model that others are going to replicate if they can't on their own platforms by bundling with others as well. Okay, a survey of the world's best airports was just released, and the top spot for baggage delivery went to Kansai International Airport outside of Osaka, Japan. You're probably thinking, okay, I guess that's somewhat interesting, Neil, but wait till you hear why it won the award. Since its opening three decades ago in 1994, Kansai has never lost a single piece of luggage, according to Nikkei.

Not one. Not a single piece of luggage. And this is a super busy airport. It receives approximately 30 million passengers every year. So what's the secret sauce?

Well, anyone who's been to Japan knows they put a premium on customer service, but Kansai goes above and beyond with carefully constructed baggage handling protocols that prioritize traceability. And from its inception, it designed workspaces that optimize ground services. And this perfect luggage record isn't the only remarkable thing about Kansai. But search it on Google images and you'll see that it sits on a floating island in the middle of Osaka Bay. In fact, it is considered to be the world's first airport built entirely on water.

Toby, they say that Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hit streak is the only record that will never be broken. I'd also suggest 30 years without losing a single piece of luggage should be in the same conversation. American consumers literally cannot wrap their mind around never losing a piece of luggage. We've all had some sort of luggage horror story, but you're right, Kansai is just incredibly impressive, no matter which stat you look like. That artificial land stat is crazy.

Toby Howell
It's. The island is two and a half miles long, one and a half miles away. It took 21 million earth that was extracted from three mountains nearby to build the island. More than 10 million working hours were dedicated to the construction. And you're right, that's the reason why they've been able to design these perfect systems, because they got to build it from scratch.

There was no existing geographical formations or restrictions that they had to build around. They literally created this from nothing, with the express purpose of having the best baggage system in mind. And they achieved it. There is just one problem, though. If you build something in the middle of the ocean, which they did well, it might sink.

Neil Freiman
And this airport is sinking much faster than they expected. So by 2018, the airport had sunk 38ft since its construction, which is 25% more than experts had predicted. And some are saying in 2056, this thing might be underwater. So I don't know how much. That's maybe when the streak will run out.

Toby Howell
Right? When it's just underwater. The one interesting thing that I do want to put an asterisk on this streak, because Kansai airport does have this crazy lore. Remember the story of the Nissan exec, Carlos Gosin, who escaped from this country? This was a crazy country.

He was invested. He was arrested in Japan in 2018 on charges of breach of trust, misusing company assets, other security laws violations. But then in 2019, he jumped bail in Japan in this insane escape where he smuggled himself out of the country by hiding in a box that made it aboard a private flight out of Kansai airport. So maybe the only luggage it ever lost was a Nissan exec, Carlos Gosin in this daring escape engineered at Kansai airport. Finally, let's just go through the ranking.

Neil Freiman
That is a crazy story. Finally, let's just go through the rankings of what the world's best airports are overall. Doha, number one, Changi in Singapore, number two. Number three, Newark. Just kidding.

In Seoul, South Korea. Was that? And then the two airports in Tokyo closed out four and five. Haneda in Narita. A US airport did not make the top 20.

Are you surprised? Literally at all. Especially when I read about Kansai, how buttoned up their services. All right, that's a good note to end the show on. Thanks so much for listening and have a wonderful Tuesday, Sixers fans, you can sound off in the YouTube comments.

I feel your pain. You can also send an email about the Sixers or anything else to our inbox, morningbrewdailyorningbrew.com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer.

Yu Chenuwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio. Hair and makeup doesn't work before the bell rings. Devin Emery is our chief content officer. And our show is a production of Morning Brew.

Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.