Which Mitch Is Which? Meet at the Mitt Podcast

Primary Topic

This episode delves into the performance and impact of Seattle Mariners pitcher Brian Woo, focusing on his return from injury and the broader implications for the team's strategy and performance.

Episode Summary

In the episode "Which Mitch Is Which?" from the Meet at the Mitt podcast, hosts Evan James and Anders Jorstad, along with guests Kate Preusser and Zach Mason, discuss Mariners pitcher Brian Woo's latest performance after returning from an injury. They explore Woo's pivotal role in the Mariners' pitching lineup, emphasizing his fastballs and potential longevity in the sport despite current limitations like his platoon splits. The discussion also touches on team dynamics, player development, and strategic decisions by the Mariners' management. The hosts blend game analysis with broader team insights, making it a comprehensive discussion on the Mariners' current state and future prospects.

Main Takeaways

  1. Brian Woo's return is seen as a positive indicator of his recovery and potential impact on the team.
  2. Concerns about Woo's sustainability as a starting pitcher due to his reliance on fastballs.
  3. The episode highlights the Mariners' strategic pitching decisions and their impact on the team's overall performance.
  4. It discusses the broader implications of management decisions on team morale and performance.
  5. The hosts and guests speculate on future developments in player performance and team strategy.

Episode Chapters

1: Introduction and Overview

Hosts Evan James and Anders Jorstad introduce the episode's focus on pitcher Brian Woo and the Seattle Mariners' recent games. They set the stage for a detailed analysis of pitching strategies and player performances. Evan James: "Welcome to the Meet at the Mitt Podcast, where today we're diving into Brian Woo's latest start and its implications."

2: Analysis of Brian Woo's Performance

Discussion on Woo's pitching during the recent game, his recovery from injury, and his role in the Mariners' strategy. Anders Jorstad: "It was a sigh of relief to see Brian push past his previous limits today, showing signs of his old form."

3: Team Dynamics and Future Prospects

Exploration of the Mariners' team dynamics, including management strategies and future roster prospects. Kate Preusser: "Looking at how the team is shaping up, there's a lot of potential if we navigate our player development correctly."

Actionable Advice

  • Focus on Recovery: Athletes should prioritize full recovery from injuries before returning to play to avoid long-term issues.
  • Analyze Player Performance: Teams should regularly analyze individual performances to adjust strategies effectively.
  • Develop Young Talent: Investing in young talent can provide a sustainable future for sports teams.
  • Strategic Decisions: Management should consider both short-term gains and long-term impacts when making strategic decisions.
  • Community Engagement: Engaging with the fan community can boost team morale and support.

About This Episode

Hello Seattle Mariners fans!

Evan James and Anders Jorstad are here on Wednesday afternoon, May 15th to talk Mariners after a series win over the Kansas City Royals. Julio’s bat seems to be heating up, but is he all the way there? What do we make of Mitch, Mitch and Jorge? The Return of Canzone is here, but how will playing time shake out? Where would we be comfortable adding a trade piece/who would we be comfortable sitting to accommodate the trade? How close are Locklear and Young getting to the show? Is Felnin Celestin primed to break out? Shout out to our sponsor MacDougall bats!

People

Brian Woo, Evan James, Anders Jorstad, Kate Preusser, Zach Mason

Companies

Seattle Mariners

Content Warnings:

None

Transcript

Alex Rodriguez
I'm Alex Rodriguez. And I'm Jason Kelly from Bloomberg. This is the deal. Each week, you'll hear us in conversation with business icons. This show will explore deal making across sports, media and entertainment. That is a harsh lesson in business. Sports is not as simple as bringing a bunch of big names together. I didn't want to do another stomp you out speech. It opened up so many more doors. The show is called the deal.

Listen to the deal.

Listen to the deal on Spotify.

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Evan James
Hello and welcome to the Meet at the Mitt Podcast. I'm Evan James. I am joined today by Andrews Jorstad and we're going to have Kate Preusser and hopefully Zach Mason coming a little bit later. It's Wednesday and we just watched a brilliant Brian woo start. He's healthy first and foremost, which is the most important piece of information that we gleaned from today. But 5.1 strong innings today. The Mariners take the series from Kansas City. Um, durse, what did you see from Brian Woo today? How nice is it to have him back on the mend and looking like him, his old self again.

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, Evan, I don't know about you, but it's.

It was just such a big exhale to watch Brian Woo get past the hump of where he was in his last outing, where after four innings, you know, he had to be taken out to see him get to the fifth and even beyond the fifth, I think if he hadn't, you know, surrendered those first two or first three rather, base runners in the 6th, they probably were planning to let him complete six frames.

So I think that's a very good sign. His fastball was obviously very good. The command was really good, especially, you know, through the first five innings.

It really is. I mean, it was this last season, too, but it really is just like a fastball and like an occasional, you know, breaking pitch or off speed that he'll throw. And so I think I'm a little bit concerned as to, like, how sustainable this all is from a starting point. But he did this for, like, 15 starts last year and basically was throwing, throwing fastballs only. So, you know, if the fastball is really good, maybe it is enough against a lot of, a lot of guys. One of the things I'm very curious about for wu, you know, this was a big problem for him last year, was the platoon splits, the righty lefty thing. And I think a lot of people have been watching closely to see what he does against lefties. And it's going to take a few starts for us to really know, I think, what the splits look like this year. Um, and, and really what he's been able to do to kind of mitigate that problem.

But, you know, as a number five starter, certainly not the worst thing to have this very exciting, you know, young right hander who can throw a 95 miles per hour fastball, 96 even sometimes that seems to utterly fool guys. And, you know, he's still so young that it's certainly within the realm of possibility. He develops another pitch or two that makes him a very dangerous starter, makes him more of a three or two.

So I think he's much more interesting to watch than Emerson Hancock, and I mean that the nicest possible way. To our friend Emerson, who really, I think, you know, did Yeoman's work out there through the first month and change of the season, which, you know, we sorely needed. But I. It is very nice to have, like, five guys who, no matter who is starting, I'm like, oh. Like, I'm pleasantly, you know, excited. Looking forward to watching that, that game. It's not a feeling that, you know, I've had very much. I think last year was an example of that, though. We talked about this last year with, you know, when Miller and Wu came up, but now Miller is like an established dude and Wu is someone who we have more than just a few starts to look at. So we say this every podcast, but I'm just really happy to, like, be in this moment in time in Mariners baseball. And we can probably talk about this in a little bit, but there does seem to be a lot of, like, negativity out there in the space, and I think there's several reasons for that being the case, but this is just something I'm always very happy to just, like, see who's starting that day and, like, watch, you know, them just dazzle opposing opposing lineups 90% of the time.

Evan James
Yeah. And it seems like it's basically fun five days a week for me. Right. Like, like you said, every time I see who's pitching, I'm excited to watch that person. And it means we're going to get six good innings. Like, today is the first time Mariner started and go six innings other than obviously Brian Wu's last start and what feels like a month practically. So we're just really adjusted to this being smooth sailing as far as the starting pitching goes in. Electric if you're Brian Woo. And I totally agree with it. With the splits, I think Luke Arkansas posted a thing today about between his rehab starts, and it's now two starts. Brian Wu has given up eight hits to left handers versus only two to right handers. So the splits are still showing up, but only one walk and five strikeouts today. So if you ask me, he's got the splits. He's also got, historically, he walks too many people. If he can solve both of those, even just to like, some kind of a degree, we're in business for a number five starter and one walk, obviously today's going to do it.

Anders Jorstad
And that one walk and all but two of the hits came in that fifth inning, you know, where he was, or the 6th inning, rather, when he was really struggling. So I, you know, it's kind of hard to say is he just going to be like a short, kind of a shorthanded starter? Is he going to be a guy who goes five innings, you know, until he learn, until he proves that he can get through a lineup the third time? That could be something, you know, he could be the guy that really exhausts the bullpen most of the time. But, like, they're going to be five really good innings. So certainly nothing to sneeze at. What you say is really good point. Like, it does seem like probably once a week we lost because the starter blew it, you know, but that's pretty infrequent. You know, when you consider the rest of the league where, you know, you'll have, you'll have guys who cough up five, six runs in the start fairly regularly, that doesn't seem to be much of a problem for the Mariners.

Evan James
And I know that quality starts kind of are a bugaboo in terms of, like, they're not a real, actual, definitive stat. They're kind of a made up thing. But when you look at, like, the Mariners are getting quality starts almost every day, and there are teams that are struggling to get them periodically. And so the Mariners going six innings a game and expecting to be under two runs scored against them is a really remarkable thing. And, like, I think it was you said last week or two weeks ago that, like, run prevention is kind of invisible. We see runs when they score because it's obvious and, you know, it's big and explosive and exciting and it's offense, but we don't see run prevention so much. But we can feel it, and we're feeling it right now with the Mariners because it feels like when they score four runs, they are going to win definitively. And, you know, like two days ago, when George Kirby was pitching, George made it through the first inning, he threw 20 pitches. He made it through the second inning, he throwing 40 pitches, and what happens? Throws seven shutout innings. It's just like, you can't write it up any better, man.

Anders Jorstad
It's really a glass half full, glass half empty thing. And this is kind of what I'm talking about when I see people, like, being very negative in the mariner space, and I understand that for a number of reasons. Like, it's very frustrating to see this ownership group not give their 100% on putting a great product in the field in a year. That is, like, unequivocally part of the win now window. Right. We are not even talking about the on the way up anymore. This is part of the crest.

So I understand the frustration that this lineup is not doing what it's doing, and I've seen a lot of, well, if the Mariners pitching wasn't doing what they're doing, we wouldn't be in the position we're in. Well, that's true, but, like, you know, the Mariners pitching is also one of the best in the sport. And, like, the Mariners are winning a lot of games because of their pitching. You know, they're losing a lot of games because they're hitting is bad, but they're winning more games because their pitching is good.

And it's, it's one of those things where the Mariners know what their strength is, they know what the ballpark can do, and they're leaning into it.

It's kind of like, it's kind of funny. The Rockies aren't doing the opposite. Like, why aren't the Rockies, just, like, signing every single beefy slugger they can find to just, like, you know, score 15 runs a game?

So the fact that mariners are just leaning into the strength of the ballpark, the strength of what they can develop is great. And not to mention, which I think we are hoping to get to later, but, like, the hitting prospects coming up through the system are going to create a really interesting core group of people in the next two, three years. If you're able to retain all these starters, you know, you're going to have a very interesting situation where it could be like, you know, things go right, it could be like what the Orioles are experiencing. But if the Orioles had really good pitching.

So I'm excited for that in the future. But in the, in the interim, you know, I think the lineup is certainly worth talking about and certainly worth discussing.

I think there are a number of players who are not necessarily doing what we thought they would do, but the pitching is like, doing more than we could have even expected or hoped for. So, yeah, I think that's certainly worth mentioning and being thankful for, even if it's a, you know, if the ownership is kneecapping this team for being better than it could be.

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Evan James
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Alex Rodriguez
I'm Alex Rodriguez. And I'm Jason Kelly from Bloomberg. This is the deal. Each week, you'll hear us in conversation with business icons. This show will explore deal making across sports, media and entertainment. That is a harsh lesson in business. Sports is not as simple as bringing a bunch of big names together. I didn't want to do another stomp you out speech. It opened up so many more doors. The show is called the deal.

Listen to the deal.

Listen to the deal on Spotify.

Evan James
Agreed. And, you know, I was talking to my dad about this yesterday and about how I read a lot of football analysis, and when football analysis people talk about mariners and talk about baseball, they get really impatient. And what I've seen with this team is that an important thing to remember is they do not have to be firing on all cylinders to be effective. Right. If their pitching is good and they score two runs, they might win that day. It doesn't, you know, and they may have had seven guys who didn't get on base, but they may still win because of that. It's not a perfect situation. Like, I'm never watching the Mariners and think there's no way they could improve this. There's nobody that could hit any better. Like, of course everybody could, but what they're doing is enough, and it is looking like it's sustainable. And so I'm choosing not to panic. Right. I could. It's very easy to look at their offensive numbers and see them being, you know, 18 to 22nd at any given time, WRC plus, and be like, you know, it's not real, but it is real. Their pitching is real enough that they're floating this. So I'm choosing to believe it, and I genuinely have faith in this team that I don't think I ever quite cad. Last year, I wanted to. I think we all desperately did, but it didn't feel like it for such a long time.

Anders Jorstad
I think the most optimistic view of the Mariners is these two, two factors, and if I'm going to continue this optimism train, I'm going to say that I know that, you know, we are all victims of, like, the ebb and flow of the season, and it's so funny coming on this show and, like, being really happy one episode and then the next one, you're just, like, totally miserable, and you're like, everything sucks. And it's very hard to, like, mentally try to level yourself out, you know, over the course of a long season.

But if there's two big things that are keeping me even more optimistic than, like, the show, the team has already shown. One is that the division is really, really bad this year. It appears, you know, the Astros are just digging themselves into a deeper and deeper hole.

The angels and A's are like, a total joke, and the Rangers are just like, they're dealing with a lot of injuries, and they aren't doing so hot either. They got swept by the Rockies recently.

Evan James
Embarrassing.

Anders Jorstad
They, they, I mean, at the time of this recording, they're on an l five.

They are just on a downswing, and the Mariners are thankfully taking advantage of that. But I think that's the one. One piece of optimism is like, I'm, like, afraid to say this because I'm going to get cold takes exposed in, like, two months, but I'm not currently afraid of the Astros.

Evan James
And that is currently the right way to caveat that.

Anders Jorstad
Yes. That's not something I've been able to say for a decade, though, right? Like, it's pretty incredible not be looking over, looking behind, you know, over your shoulder for the Astros coming right behind you. Now. The Rangers, of course, are another story. The other piece of optimism is that Julio is not going to be as bad as he's been the rest of the season. We all know a big turnaround is coming. He's going to have a super hot summer. He's probably going to end the season with 25 homers. He only has two right now.

I know the whole, like, gambler's fallacy is, like, there's no such thing as being quote unquote due. It's not like, because he stacked up all this poor performance, he's going to, like, explode and have a great month, but, like, he could, and he will probably be a star quality player for the rest of the season.

And I know there are people who are kind of, you know, worried about Julio. I am certainly not one of them. I think you will figure it out. I think he'll figure it out this season, and I think that when he does and this pitching is still doing what they're doing, it's going to be a really fun stretch of time to watch this team because to this point, he's been merely, like, an above average major league player, and we all know he's capable of more than that and likely to be more than that very soon.

Evan James
Yeah, absolutely. And I think watching him, even just the last couple of days, the rest of the team hitting a little bit, would take so much off of his shoulders. Um, I think he's gotten into trouble being a little overly aggressive both at the plate and, you know, you look at today and yesterday on the base paths where he's getting through. He got thrown out twice today coming off the bag. Got thrown out yesterday coming off the bag.

He's. He's doing some hyper aggressive, risky things at times that are not paying off for him. And I think that's because he's pushing so hard to be that superstar to be valuable and to come through for the team. And he doesn't really need to. What needs to happen is he plays his game and everybody else plays their game, too, and everything will work out. And you see that, like, you, like you saw that this week, like, in the first game against Kansas City. And you saw that when, you know, he came through with a big home run on a day that he had struggled earlier in the day.

So it's coming. I do agree it's coming. And I think we've seen enough from Julio to know that he's not his lows, right? Like, if Julio is just his lows, he'd be a four win player. He's not a foreign player. He was a six win player last year above that. So we know, and we've seen enough to. To understand that he's not just going to be in the doldrums of the season for the entire year. And when he does put it together, he's worth so much so quickly that it kind of doesn't matter in some cases.

Anders Jorstad
His WRC so far is in line with where he was at this point last year. There's reason to believe that his power is down. Like a lot of players are down in April and May when it's really cold in Seattle. His ISO has been down because of that. I think there's a reason to believe the power is coming. He's also dealing with some bad luck. His ex woba is 30 points higher than his woba so far. So, like, he is. And you can see that just by watching him play, like, he is hitting, you know, the snot out of the ball and it's going right to someone, and that is going to even out over time. But I do think to. To your point, there is some, like, he feels the world on his shoulders, especially as it pertains to this offense in a way that I wish he wouldn't. But, like, I understand why he does. Um, and I don't think it's so much like him not trusting his teammates. I think it's more so that, like, he understands that he's supposed to herald this generation of winning for Seattle, and he knows that he's supposed to lead this club into the future and into the present and the media, the marketing team. Nobody's been shy about telling him that or pumping that fact up. And I think he just feels like the weight of the expectations against himself in some ways.

And I will say that I think that he's handling it all very well, relatively, because you always even when he, like, you know, barely gets beaten out on a ground ball, you know, down the line, or if he hits the ball right at someone that he hit 110 miles an hour, you can see, like, a smile on his face. You know, he's not, like, swearing and kicking, you know, kicking things and, like, making a big deal things and. Sorry, that sounded like a shot at Jared Kelnick. It wasn't meant to be.

But, like, I'm. I'm constantly in, like, awe of, like, Julio's, you know, ability to handle all this.

And that's another reason why I have total faith in him turning it around.

Evan James
Yeah. And that's why we invest so much in the player and who he is as a person. And we believe in. We believe in Julio just as much off the field as we do on the field and maybe even more sometimes. And, you know, I was looking through.

I pay attention to run differential a lot. I know that you do, too. I think it's a good gauge of where the mariners are relative to some of their competition. And when you look at the elite of the American League, the thing that, like, the Orioles and the royals have in common is that they have a young superstar really popping off. Bobby Wood, junior, Adley Rutchman, like, they have. They have some young superstar who is lighting it up. And when you look at the guys who are, like, the teams who are a little more in the middle, the Blue Jays, Toronto, and the Mariners, they have those guys, but they're not popping all the way off yet. Like, Julio has not quite hit it. The Mariners, again, mvp is Josh Rojas, and God bless Josh Rojas, but it's not the same degree. Right? Like, a win and a half from Josh Rojas in a quarter of baseball is not the same as two and a half from Bobby Witt, junior. Or, like, I don't even want to guess at how many mookie bets has. I'm not. Not going to get it right, but it's too many. But the Mariners are, if they're going to be a superstar team, they need him to be that superstar. But I have confidence he will be, and that that ability is still there and that we can do this this year. I. Absolutely.

Anders Jorstad
And they're leading the division anyway, right?

Evan James
Like, he's leading the division anyway, right.

Anders Jorstad
Now, as we're recording, his WRC plus is 91. He's 10% below league average as a hitter, and the Mariners are still at the top of the AL west by three games. So that's pretty amazing.

Evan James
It is. And the most encouraging thing for me about their situation at the top of the west is that the Texas run differential sucks, too. They just don't, they don't look like the team they were last year. It looks like their pitching is really bleeding them dry. And if they were hoping on getting Scherzer back and, you know, some other reinforcements that all seems tentative at this point, if it's going to happen at all. So they might be in trouble.

Anders Jorstad
I think that they are. I think that the injuries aren't helping. You know, Evan Carter's hurt. Wyatt Langford has hurt Josh Young. I don't know if he'll ever be healthy.

Those are like, those, those are the three core hitters that are, that are going to lead them into their future, and they're, they're really struggling.

And then, yeah, the, the pitching thing is funny because, you know, Texas last year, we basically said that Texas was screwed unless every pitcher, you know, stayed healthy. And lo and behold, they got pretty much all that and more from every starting pitcher last season. That, that doesn't seem to be really repeating itself this year. So it's kind of like what we expected, I think, from Texas last year, where we thought they'd hang around and ultimately, you know, we forget this, but, like, they barely made the playoffs last year, so it wasn't like they were world beaters.

But that's not to say, you know, I think if I'm afraid of anyone, it is Texas. I'm also afraid of the fact, secondarily, that the Mariners are currently in the worst division in baseball. I don't know if that'll hold, but, you know, the Mariners right now would not have a wild card spot if they weren't leading the division.

Evan James
Yeah, that is a little worried about that.

Anders Jorstad
Mm hmm.

Evan James
Yeah, me, too. I don't know if I like that very much, but we're always so used.

Anders Jorstad
To having the fallback of, like, oh, if they're second, it's fine. Like, the Astros are on 112 win pace. Who cares? Because we have the wild card, at least that we can contend for. But I don't know. We'll see. There's still plenty of time for, like, for that to even out.

Evan James
Yeah. I think instead of choosing to be worried that the second wild card is not an option for us, I'll choose to be grateful that the, the Astros are bad. Right.

Anders Jorstad
There you go.

Evan James
That's why I'm going to take that.

Anders Jorstad
Let me ask you this. Sorry. I don't know if you're going to steer off into another topic or not. But we kind of said we were going to talk about this anyway. Dom Canzone coming back today, there's been some questions as to where he's going to fit into the whole scheme of the lineup.

I don't think he was. It's funny. When he got hurt, he was, at the time the best hitter on the Mariners. I don't think that's the case anymore because Raleigh's been so good and Rojas has been so good. But what, what are your expectations for Dom Canzone going into the rest of the season? Do you expect him to hold down the rest of the, you know, a starting role the rest of the way?

Do you feel like he needs to be a guy in the heart of the order? What. What are you kind of looking for from him from here on out?

Evan James
The reality is that he's still such an unknown prospect. We have an idea of. Of his profile. We understand that he's got pretty decent power, that he is adequate, but not plus as an outfielder. Um, adequate, but not plus as a runner, and that he makes lots of contact, but occasionally bad contact, unless he grounds out and pops up and stuff like that.

But he's. If you look at his triple A stats from a couple years ago before the Mariners traded for him, and you look at what he was doing before he was on the shelf this year, there's just a lot to like there. He's a guy. He's a little bit of a different archetype from a lot of the other hitters that we have in this lineup. Does he need to play every day? I would say no, but let's tie this into the Mitch Hanniger question, which is, there's been some discussion the last couple of days about this. Mitch need a break? Does Mitch need time off? Does Mitch need to be a dh? You know, because his WRC plus has really cratered in May after a pretty good April.

And so it becomes a question of, like, how are you juggling playing time where Rayleigh is finally hitting after a rough month? Mitch is not hitting. Canzone is back. Julio, obviously is going to play every day.

I think just a regular rotation is the answer. I realize that that's boring and that people want me to say, no, you should start Dom Canzone every day in left field, and I think there's some merit to that. But the truth is, is they need to find Dylan Moore playing time, too, and they've been playing Josh Rojas in the outfield as well. So it's like they have essentially five guys for three spots and all five of them deserve time to one degree or another. And the reality is, I don't like Mitch playing DH very much because we already have a DH who might be better than him anyway. So there just isn't a good way to solve this. The way to solve it is that not everyone is going to be starting all the time. And that's all I got. What do you think?

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, this is. This is what the Rays do, right? The Rays have, like, two full time players and seven guys who play like 60% of the time. This is like their model. They've done this for ten years, and they are really good at it. The Mariners, unfortunately, I think, don't have the same caliber of pieces that those race clubs typically have.

And I think that's the big difference. I think ideally, you do have Hannigar playing 60% to 70% of games, and you have Rojas playing 60% to 70% of games. But all of that requires you having another guy who's very good.

And what they have right now is just a bunch of players who are kind of in between being part time guys and full time guys.

I think the problem with Hannigar is actually the fact that they signed Mitch Garver, and we were saying for so long they need a full time Dh. We're sick of seeing no production from the DH spot. Get a big, beefy slugger, put them in that spot, and let's get some production from that spot. And they did. And Garvers started to turn it around here in these last couple of weeks. But the problem is then he is now locking out someone like Hanniger from using the DH spot as a regular spot to get a day off, unless Garver is banged up like he's been the last couple days.

And so basically, you're forced with the decision to play Hanniger in the outfield or not play him at all. And I won't lie. When they traded for Mitch Hanniger and they said something along the lines of, we will play him as long as he is able to play. Basically, they're like, we'll play him as many games as he's capable of playing in a week. And I was like, okay, so that's like three, four games a week, probably. He'll be like a 60% player. And it's actually turned into him being, like, as full time a player as, like, tie France or as full time a player as.

As, you know, as Julio has been, really?

And that's certainly not what I expected. Now, I think the mariners have a far better concept of, like, how healthy Hanniger is and, like, how capable he is of playing every day than I do, sitting on my couch, watching on the television. So I'm not going to say, sit here and say, like, he needs a break. Scott, why can't you see that? Because Scott is literally, like, 6ft from him, like, 17 hours a day.

So, you know, I think they would probably have a better gauge on whether he is, you know, capable of playing every day or not. I think that he just simply might not be the player that he was. And that's not surprising, considering he's 33 years old.

And that's what happens when you get into your thirties, is like, you aren't as productive as you used to be, and that might just be what we're seeing. But, like, even Hannigar, with the level of production that he has right now, is better than. Than what we could have as an alternative. And that's why he's playing every day.

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Evan James
Yeah, and the thing with Mitch is that I am not convinced that sitting him is going to get him going. You know what I mean? Like, the reality is that Mitch needs to hit to hit. And we've seen. We've seen five years of Mitch Hanniger. We know that he's a streaky player. We know that he's going to have months where he has a 160 WRC plus and months where he has an 80 WRC plus. We're in the throws of one of the ladder right now. I'm not convinced that pulling him out of the field and dating him is going to have any kind of measurable impact on the way he's performing at play. And my additional concern is that, like you said, this is just who he is now. He just might not be very good anymore because the truth is he is older. He had a rough year last year and he was injured most of the time anyway. He's hardly played baseball in like 18 months other than this season. So it's like I'm, I'm seeing a guy that, if you ask me, I don't like this metaphor, but like, gun to my head, I think Mitch Hanniger has under a thousand plate appearances left in his career. And realistically, like, maybe substantially less than that.

I also kind of feel that about Polanco and Garver.

The question is, okay, interesting. The question is, is it more 1000 played appearances, which is they're going to be okay this year and maybe next year? Or is it, like, creeping up?

I think with Mitch, I see it creeping up a little bit. I also think he's had a couple of very bad defensive games in right field in a row, and it's brought his defensive numbers down a lot. And I'm not overreacting to that because I've seen enough Mitch Hanniger defense to know what the deal is. He has slightly above average range and bad hands, and when you mix those things together, you miff up some plays that you feel like he should make. And that's been the case the last couple days.

But I don't think that means he just can't play the outfield anymore. You know what I mean? Like, I don't think he's some kind of a massive liability out there because of that. But to tie this back to Canzone, the more the mariners want to play Dom Canzone instead of Mitch Hanniger, the more comfortable I am with it. Would you say you feel that way?

Anders Jorstad
Yes. And I think that's one of the reasons why it's good to have him back, is because he kind of allows you the comfortability of, like, not having to rely on Sam Hagerty being your alternative option in the outfield. And this is why they need an outfielder more than more than they need anything else, in my opinion, is just to be able to give Hannigar a day off if he needs it to be able to have like a fallback. If Hannigar really is struggling still in July or August, I will say this is something that was very interesting. Some of you may have seen that MLB statcast dropped a new measurement tool, which was the bat speed tracking.

Evan James
And people have all kinds of fun. It's been awesome.

Anders Jorstad
It is all kinds of fun. And one of the biggest indicators of age is bat speed. That's one of the reasons why players get worse as they age, as their bat speed tracks down. For example, one thing that's very interesting is Mookie Betsy back. Bat speed is like way down, and yet he's still having a phenomenal year because he's such a good hitter to contact. Like, he knows how to put the barrel on the ball. And so even if the bat speed is down, he can be productive. But, like, that is signs of him aging, and maybe in two, two or three years that won't be enough. Right now, this is all to say, Mitch Hannaker's bat speed is still above average across baseball, which is pretty phenomenal, and I think speaks to his ability to, like, stay fit and stay healthy. So maybe I was a little bit ahead of myself when I said that this is just a result of him aging. Maybe he can turn this around.

But another caveat to that is this is one stat. Bat speed is not the end all, be all.

You need a whole lot of stats and knowledge to really make a big, strong take on a guy. But that is, I think one argument against he's just aging and getting worse is the batsby is actually still staying pretty strong. Now, if your argument, Evan, is that Jorge Polanco is cooked, you may have.

Evan James
A better, better, like 20 percentile bat speed. I did. I did see that, yes.

Anders Jorstad
Which is a bummer to me. I. I still think Polanco is fine.

I still think he's going to turn it around. And I think that, you know, I've said this before, but, like, if he doesn't, so what? He's on an option. They can cut him after this year if they don't want. If they don't want him around.

I think he's going to turn it around still. And I still think he's a far superior second base option than we have had last couple of years. So I'm not so worried about Polanco. It could be an injury related thing, and that can also be a factor for this bat speed thing. I mentioned this podcast a lot because it's one of the few podcasts I listen to regularly. But rates and barrels did do a segment about this recently about bat speed, and Sarris was talking about it could be an aging thing, but it could be an injury thing.

A decrease in bat speed could be an indicator that there's an injury the players is playing through. And the two guys who have had decreased bat speed, Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco, are two guys who are out right now with injuries. So I wonder how much of that is at play for both of those guys as they kind of struggle right now is the lingering injury issues that they're dealing with. I mean, Garver's been on and off, you know, day to day status for the last few weeks. So I wonder if he's trying to play through something and just isn't able to really have the same level of impact as he's had in the past.

And that would certainly explain, you know, he was a great DH last year. Why hasn't he been this year? Could be an injury issue.

Evan James
It sure could be. I really wish we had the batted balls or, excuse me, the bat speed for last year because it's so interesting looking through that list and seeing where everybody is and not knowing if they dropped off a cliff and we can't tell.

It's definitely a mystery in some cases, but Polanco being like the 20th percentile.

What I learned from that list is that it's not what you got, it's how you use it. Right? There are players all over that list who are incredibly valuable, who have no bad speed to speak of. Josh Rojas and Steve.

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, he's the worst one.

Evan James
He's literally the worst one. And he rules. Like it's just. I love it. I love that it's Giancarlos Dayton on one end and Steve Kwan on the other end. It's just like such a paradigm and they're so. They're both having incredible seasons. So it's like.

It's just, you got to figure out what works for you. And I'm not, like I said, like you said, I'm not convinced Polanco is really experiencing bat speed loss. Potentially. I think he might just be a lower bat speed guy who makes really solid contact, and when he does, it gives the illusion of better bat speed because we've seen him hit monster home runs. Like, there's not a question that he has power. We know that he.

Anders Jorstad
Well, there's. You will notice that there's also two stats tracked, which is average bat speed and also fast swing rate, which they define as being bat speed of 25 miles miles per hour or greater. So you can have below average bat speed and above average bat fast swing rate.

And the reason that they would have that happen is if, like, maybe they have two different levels of swing where, like, they have one swing that's like, quote unquote their a swing, and they get to it more often when that, when they're really trying to hit, like, a fastball and they have, like, a more defensive swing or secondary swing that they're just trying to put the ball in play. So it really is, with every stat, it raises more questions than answers. You know, it gives us some answers, but it really opens up pandora's box to a lot of different things. So definitely a fun tool to explore. I hope that nobody is making, like, fast sweeping conclusions for things, but certainly things worth considering. And I do wonder if injury is contributing to the struggles of those two particular veteran guys. And if so, I hope they get healthy. I always say this, but, like, just put the guy in the aisle, bite the bullet, take a couple of weeks off, if that's what it takes. Now, that said, it could be like a cow thing where, you know, in, like, the late parts of the year he needed surgery and he wasn't getting surgery in the middle of the season. So I guess I wouldn't fault them for that either.

Evan James
Well, we'll hope it's not that, because that's, that's bad. If somebody needs surgery, we're going to. We're going to really hope that's not the case. But, um, I want to tie this all in because people are starting to talk about the trade deadline now, and understandably so. The Mariners offense has been pretty bad, and they could use a hitter, they could use some offense. And so I understand why, you know, the rubber mill started churn. I asked a question on Twitter yesterday where you would displace somebody, because as the Mariners roster is currently constructed, you need to give up on somebody, right? Like, if you're really going to bring in somebody externally, you're going to trade for a star, trade for a starter, trade for whatever. Somebody's got to go. You can't keep this entire band together. And so I asked, who would you rather? Just place Hannigar in the outfield, Polanco in the infield, or tie France at first base? And when you look at the Mariners, those are the haniger, Polanco, France and Garver are by far the lowest performing guys. By war, those guys are all in the negative zone. So I think it's fair to include them all together in terms of like, these are, who potentially loses a starting role. But I'll pitch this question to you, Dersh. Who would you displaced there if you had to pick somebody? Not that we're going to necessarily get to pick one of them because that's likely going to be dictated by the return player more than who's still here, but who do you feel comfortable displacing?

And by extension, where would you like to acquire somebody?

Anders Jorstad
I think that you have to unfortunately consider contract status when you're having this conversation, and that pretty much eliminates the mitches from. From this discussion because both of them are going to be under contract for next season.

In theory, they could try to move one of those two contracts and like, I didn't think they'd try to move Robbie Ray's contract, and they did. So, like, who's to say they won't do that, right? They could. They could find someone to take on one of those contracts and all of a sudden they have a spot open. But that said, it's a lot easier for them to move on from Polanco or France because neither of them is.

Needs to be on this team next year. Both of them could be. They both, you know, Polanco has an option. France is arbitration.

But I think right now France is ticketing for non tender status. So I think first base is the most obvious place. And actually my second choice is left field.

I think they would sooner displace canzone than they would displace the mitches.

Send Canzone down to aaa by getting an outfielder. So I think the kinds of players you're looking at are like, you know, people have thrown out Yandy Diaz. Cause he's a first base option. I've seen, you know, obviously everyone wants Pete Alonso. He's going to cost you an arm and a leg and then a Boris contract negotiation in the winter.

Luis Robert has been out there as a name.

My big concern with Robert is actually not the injury thing, which I think is making a lot of people nervous. It's actually the fact that I think that the Orioles are a, more desperate and b, have more weapons to acquire him. So I don't think the Mariners can really compete for Robert if someone like Baltimore wants him. Baltimore basically has, like, imagine if everyone in Modesto for the Mariners was in Triple A instead, like that. That is what Baltimore is dealing with right now. Every single hitter in their system, that's like a top 100 prospect. They've got like eight of them are like, ready to play baseball. And they only have, like, four spots for eight guys, so they're going to trade three of them, probably. And I think the White Sox really are, like, a perfect fit for them. The Mariners have prospects to trade, but none of them is, like, actively making the roster situation in Seattle difficult right now.

So I think the Mariners are an interesting position where, like, we're going to see Jerry do the whole, like, you know, we're trying to build for this season and the future at the same time because there's no pressure for him to trade these guys that he has to find a spot for. So I'm kind of.

I'm wondering if he does the same thing this offseason where he just tries to hold on to these top guys again, and maybe he trades, like, one of them. Like, maybe he finds a deal that makes sense and trades Harry Ford or Logan Evans or Cole Young, you know, but he's not going to trade two or three of these top guys.

And instead, we may see, like, a Harold Ramirez type of acquisition, which I don't know if that would make anyone super excited, but, like, there are plenty of good players in that bucket that are, like, you know, in.

In that kind of range that I was talking about earlier where, like, they could play 70% of the time and be a very capable hitter, and that would just add another dimension to, like, the flexibility of this roster. And that's a move I would not be surprised to see Jerry make. Cause he does it so often. But what, what do you say to that?

Evan James
I do not think they're going to make a trade, and my explanation is actually really simple. When you look at this roster and who they have to trade, they would need to acquire somebody, frankly, way, way above average to put them on this roster and in this lineup and feel good about who they are. Displacing Mitch Hanniger has a lot of upside. He's Mitch freaking Hanniger. If you're going to bring in somebody to replace Mitch Hanniger, they need to be better than Mitch Hanniger. That rules out a lot of players who are normally in the kind of pool that Jerry likes to trade to. That rules out the Dom can zone in the Josh Rojas of the world. We're not looking for that kind of trade. We're looking for, like you said, luis Robert. We're looking for, you know who I would love, and it sucks because he's on the angels, is Joe Adele. I would be interested in trading somebody like Cole Young for Joe Adele, you know, swapping a little bit of the future for a little bit of the present. And a guy who's performing at a high level and still young and could be paired next to Julio is 25 years old on this team. I would love that. That's a pipe dream, though, realistically.

Anders Jorstad
But you're making me. You're making me get on my soapbox here, and I'm gonna about to shout to the heavens for Kobe Mayo, who's one of, like, the eight players the Orioles seemingly have to trade.

Evan James
And I love him, dude, that would be really cool. But again, like, we would have to pay out the nose for that. Like, in a way that I don't know if Jerry can really stomach. I was doing a lot of this, like, trade math in my head yesterday, and I think if the Mariners are going to approach the deadline, they're going to say, okay, we're willing to part with Locklear. We're willing to part with potentially young, but definitely Ford. So I think Ford and Locklear are the two that they're like, we will move these guys for the right piece, but it has to be that, right? It can't be. Yeah, it can't be Josh Rojas. It can't be somebody. And that's not. That's not any kind of a shot at Josh Rojas in the way he's played this year. It's just the reality that we can't be acquiring somebody who has negative war this season to play right. Like, it needs to be somebody who we feel confident can walk onto the field and be an upgrade immediately.

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Anders Jorstad
Well, there's something to consider that, like, the Mariners have what appears to be potentially generational talent in the minors, right? Like, I think felony and Celestin, Colt, Emerson, Lazar Amontas. Those are three guys who, like, could be top ten prospects nationally within a year from now. But none of those guys are going to be on this roster making a meaningful impact in the next two seasons. Even so, you have these, you know, you have some very good prospects in the, in the form of, you know, Cole Young, Harry Ford, Tyler Locklear. Those. Those are all guys who could very well be big league regulars but likely will not be superstars.

And so the question is, if you're not going to develop a superstar, most likely, where are you going to get one from? And we know the Mariners are probably not going to sign one, so it does kind of limit your options to these guys. And then you have to consider who's going to trade a superstar, right? A lot of teams are not going to trade their superstar. The same reason the Mariners aren't going to trade Julio Rodriguez. So you're going to end up with guys who have warts, right?

So, like a Vlad Guerrero, maybe he's in the market. I don't know if he's in the market, but he's a very high dollar player. Hasn't really lived up to the hype the last couple of years. Like, that is a name that was really sexy a couple of years ago. Isn't so sexy now. The same thing for Luis Robert?

You know, the way the Mariners are playing the game that they're playing, they're going to end up in the pool of acquiring players that have warts and players that have imperfections. And so, like, I would be super psyched for Luis Robert because when he's healthy, he is, you know, a top 25 player in baseball.

And so I think that you and I are in agreement that, like, they need that kind of player in the lineup to really, like, make a meaningful change in how we watch this team hit on a day to day basis. And I think Julio, to some extent, needs someone like that, too, like another really good hitter that like, when Julio isn't doing well, can. Can be that person that leads the team. And Cal Rawley, you know, he's been so great, but, like, a catcher is very hard to do that because he is not in the lineup every single day.

So it's a very. It's a very tricky situation the Mariners find themselves in.

I saw you. You mentioned this earlier. I agree. I don't think they're going to trade any of those three guys out. Why? I'm telliston. Um, Emerson or Lazaro. Um, I think those. You know, at least one of those three guys, hopefully, will turn into a star player. Um, but I. You know, and I. And I am very high on someone like Cole Young, but I'm very excited for him to come up. But I do think they need someone who's going to be, like, a dude.

Evan James
Well, since we're doing it, let's talk prospects, and then we can. We can wrap for today. Kate's. Kate's not going to make it, it sounds like. But, uh, let's talk prospects, because, oh, my God, everybody's hitting. Everybody's hitting everywhere at all levels. It's like. It's incredible.

Obviously, celestine is the big story of the day. Promoted three home runs in his first four games, something like that so far. Just like going gangbusters. If you don't follow Mariners miners on Twitter like you should, because he's hitting angst.

Colt Emerson is playing again healthy. Back on the field.

Who do you want to talk about? Dirge? You go first.

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, let's talk about Celestin first, because I think this is a name that I think that people who listen to this show probably are familiar with, because he was, two winters ago, the second highest paid player internationally, just barely behind Ethan Salus, who is now a top 15 prospect nationally for the Padres as a catcher. But Sellison was thought to perhaps have more ceiling than any shortstop that has been signed in, like, the last ten years, and he is showing it. You know, he was hurt last year with a hamstring issue, so we didn't really see him play.

He was limited in spring training with an injury as well.

And then we finally see him get into action here in the Arizona complex League. And like you mentioned, he hit two home runs in one game as a switch hitter, which is, like, super exciting. He's had more walks than strikeouts. His WRC is 221, and he's just like a super exciting five tool guy. And people were clamoring for him to get the promotion to Modesto, and he finally is getting that. So the Modesto team, which already was, like, arguably one of the three most talented teams in the minors, is getting another super, super interesting, talented player.

It's going to become must watch tv for people who even don't really follow the minors that much. We're talking. You got last year's all three first round picks with Emerson, Farmello, and Pete. And then you have not only Lazaro Montez, who everyone loves, but Celestin and even Michael Arroyo.

It is just a very, very exciting group of guys.

And, yeah, that is, like, honestly, the one thing I always do when I'm at night, closing out my socials, is I'm like, okay, what did the Modesto nuts do today? Let's go over to mariners, miners. Oh, they scored 17 runs. That's cool.

So, yeah, I think that's. That's obviously the guy I'm most excited for.

And it's funny, because Colt Emerson, like, was.

Was the talk of the town. I have seen national prospect writers say that they wouldn't be surprised if he was the number one prospect in baseball within. Within a year from now.

Once all these guys graduate, we've seen a lot of smoke for Lazaro Montez, who's, like, plate skills are getting way better. That was like, one of. One of the. The few warts, I would say, people had with his profile is that he was a swing and miss guy, and he seemingly patched that up. Now, that said, he's facing single a pitching, so, like, he could get to double a, and that could all change again. But that is super exciting to see.

And Farmello has been very good, too. I mean, this is another guy who is, like, a sneaky, breakout choice. He's playing some very good center field. He's showing off his speed. I believe he's leading the nuts and triples, although I could be wrong about that, showing off some over the fence power as well. And Tai Pete's been, you know, kind of a little bit quieter, but, like, he's having his moments, too. I think he's more of a longer term project than the rest of those guys are.

So it wouldn't surprise me to see him be, you know, in Modesto all year, kind of figuring things out.

But even so, like, a very exciting player in his own right. So, Modesto certainly still worth. Worth following. And, uh, I I sorely hope they don't trade all the, uh, any of those guys. I think of the big six that I talked about with. With Arroyo being the other one, you know, two of them are probably going to get traded. Two of them may flame out, but, like, two of those guys are probably going to end up being pretty good big league players at the very least. And, uh, I'm excited to see which two of those guys it ends up being. And, like, if we're really lucky, it might be three. Um, so certainly going to be a fun ride for the next few years.

Evan James
Agreed. And like you said, they have enough guys now where they can realistically part with some of them if they really need to make a move here, and I won't love it, but I'll be okay with it. That's the benefit of having a farm stable stock like this, is that you can use those currencies, those trade chips, to add to your major league team if you need to, you know, supplement some of that talent. If we're in a situation like that, I feel good about where we are. I also want to give a shout out to depend Williamson, who is the Mariners comp round pick, I believe, last year, and he's a little old for the level that he's been dominating at, but he got bumped all the way up to Arkansas from Everett today.

That should be an actual challenge for him. And given that he was storming through the league, I'm excited to see if he can keep up kind of that elite performance, because the book on him was that the Mariners signed him way underslaught and that he's kind of non prospect y because they wanted to save money. There's, um, nothing about the way he has played has indicated that so far. So, you know, if you're looking for somebody who's overperformed, Ben Williamson is the over performer so far of the. The Mariners minors, but he might.

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, actually.

Evan James
And actually pulling him out of the ether is great.

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, I actually. I am extra excited about Ben Williamson because he went to a school in my college's conference, he was at the college of William and Mary, which is a CAA school. So along with George Kirby, who is another CAA guy, I hold a lot of pride for. For the CAA players, and he's been great. You know, there's something kind of seagerish to him.

Kyle, that is not corey. I don't think we'd be so lucky.

But he's a very good third base defender at third base. You know, he. He has very, very good eye at the plate.

You know, his walk rates above average. His k rate is above average in the good way. Probably not like a huge power guy. Probably a little bit less power than Seeger has, to be honest with you. But, like, a guy who's got some thump, probably doubles power, and this is a guy who, like Seeger, you know, is quite unheralded. I don't feel like I recall Seeger making any top 100 lists.

He was just kind of quietly making his way up the minors. Just. Just doing very well at every level.

Evan James
Yeah. If he ever did make prospect lists, it was. It was like the very tail end of his minor league career, but I don't think so.

Anders Jorstad
So I think, you know, I think that Kyle Seager is like, a 90th percentile outcome for Ben Williamson, but I think that he could be a very interesting player and perhaps a contender at third base, you know, a couple of years from now. So certainly worth, worth keeping an eye on, especially as he moves into the much tougher Arkansas Travelers ballpark and league. One thing I do want to point out is that someone did directly ask Ryan Divisch, um, if he's heard anything about Tyler Locklear getting moved up to Tacoma. Um, and Divisch said that the Mariners are still trying to work on some things with Locklear, so he would be surprised if he moved up to Tacoma quickly. That's a little bit of a bummer. That's a guy I was kind of hoping to see in the middle of the summer. I I would now probably say there's probably a 50 50 shot we see him this year at all, so likely more of, like, an August September guy. But if France continues to struggle, I don't know if they have any choice but to, like, see if Locklear can hit Tacoma pitching and if he can and, like, give him a cup of coffee in, in Seattle, I think that's, like, the best route to playing time for Locklear as the season goes on.

Evan James
Yeah, I wouldn't read it too much into what division said, too, about this exact moment in time, because it's May 15. If you check back with him in two weeks, he might give you a different answer. You know, like, realistically, I think that.

I think that young will get a cup of coffee in Tacoma by the end of the year, and I think that Locklear will be up to.

Anders Jorstad
Yeah, I will say young has been struggling a little bit, and I think that they're content to give him as much time as he wants because he's 20 years old, so they're, they're probably, like, totally cool with letting him play the whole year at Arkansas if he has to, but, yeah, I would not be surprised if he, you know, starts to line it up and we see him in tacoma the last month of the minor league season, anything's possible.

Evan James
The only other thing I wanted to add was you gave the Kyle Seger comp for Williamson. The guy that I've kind of had on my mind is, oh, my gosh, now I'm going to blank on his name. Who is it we traded to the Dodgers?

Mariner.

Anders Jorstad
Oh, Chris Taylor.

Evan James
Chris Taylor. Thank you. I don't know why I lost his name as soon as I went to it, but Ben Williamson reminds me a lot of Chris Taylor, and that they're both. They're both kind of tall, rangy, lankier infielders with plus defense with questionable bats. But, you know, maybe he needs to go. Maybe Williamson needs to go hang out with his. Josh Bard's brother. Right. That's who it was. Who hung out with Chris Taylor?

Anders Jorstad
I don't remember.

This is a time, and this is a time in the Mariners life that I'd like to forget.

It's funny, Evan and I were just talking pre pod about how there's so many new Mariners podcasts and a lot of new Mariners fans out there, and we were reminiscing about the fact that those people are likely people who had their childhoods colored by the 2015 or 2014, rather, Mariners. Right. When the Mariners started to get really interesting, they did not have to sit through the Unieski Betancourt, the Chris Taylor years, you know, all that. All that nonsense. So in some ways, I would like to forget the Trayvon Robinsons of the world, but, you know, in other ways, those shaped me as a fan, so I'm thankful for those opportunities.

Evan James
Yeah. And, you know, like, sometimes it's a Trayvon Robinson. Sometimes it's a Leo. Leo. Leo Rivas. Rivas.

Anders Jorstad
That's right.

Yeah. Leo Revos. Yeah.

Evan James
Yeah. Leo Revos. So, you know, like, it's not all bad. Sometimes it's okay.

All right, anything else for today? I got to go to a work function after this, so I got to head down to Bellevue. But anything else for today?

Anders Jorstad
I just want to say I'm very excited for this coming road trip. You know, normally, Zach Mason and I, who are the two DC area Mariners fans, we like to try to go to the Baltimore series.

Um, but the Mariners did a very smart thing for their travel that their. Their travel and not smart for me and Zach, which is the Baltimore series and the Washington series, are basically on back to back weekends, and I'm not watching baseball all weekend for two weekends in a row. Zach and I will be going to all three Mariners Nats games, so I'm very excited for that. That's going to be on this coming road trip. So memorial day weekend will be a fun time for me. Looking forward.

Evan James
Awesome. That's going to be really fun, dude. I'm happy for you. Very cool.

Anders Jorstad
Thank you. Yeah.

Evan James
Well, shout out to our sponsor, McDougall bats. Use the code goems goms at checkout for $20 off. Get us a little kickback.

I think we'll be back this weekend with, with Kate and John, hopefully, but we'll see. Until then, Mariners, first place in front of the Texas Rangers, win the series at home against Kansas City Royals. Everything is coming up roses, so go mariners. We'll see you next time.

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More than once, actually.

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