They Might Be Mariners - Do Rising Tides Raise All Boats? Meet at the Mitt Podcast

John Trupin
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Max Ellingson
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John Trupin
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Hello and welcome to they might be Mariners.

The Seattle Mariners Minor Leagues podcast and Prospects podcast brought to you by the Meet at the Mitt podcast brought to you by the peopleoflookoutlanding.com.

we have, mildly Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, of La county of California, USA.

Kate Pruser
Disneyland, USA.

John Trupin
It's possible, it's possible. However, nonetheless, I remain John Trupan, deputy managing editor of Lookout Landing.com, thrilled to be here with y'all, talking about prospects.

And for that very purpose, I have two experts in the mariners farm system. Joining me.

We have Kate Pruser, managing editor of lookoutlanding.com, adding the FX for this episode.

Kate Pruser
I just feel like it has to be distinguished somehow from the regular podcast.

John Trupin
Listen, if this is what it takes to get the return of, I will take it.

Kate Pruser
You know what I'll do. Byee just for this. Just for this.

John Trupin
Thank you. Thank you.

Joining us as well, we have Max Ellingson, our prospect expert, our lead prospect writer at the site covering the miners from a Arizona all the way to Tacoma and, and down to the Dominican once they eventually get way as well.

Max, how are you, my friend?

Max Ellingson
I am excellent. I'm even better that we finally get to talk some, some minor league baseball. So I'm ready.

John Trupin
Yes, yes, yes. So we were able to get, you know, I know we, we got a little bit of discussion on Logan Evans, obviously, because we had the notable, the notable shift of moving him to the bullpen with the explicit choice of getting him prepped to be a contributor to the big league club. That is fabulous today. And I don't want to dwell on this, but I did see Jerry Depot said we can prepare him for being on the big leagues or he can continue being Bob Gibson in the Texas League, which is just a. It's a lovely turn of phrase. It's also a reminder of like some, like the moment that came out of his mouth, Justin Hollander, like his ear started itching and burning hot. Like someone, someone gave Jerry a mic again, so.

But we had the Logan Evans, you know, I know we were able to address that. So we're going to focus a little bit more broadly on the rest of the farm. Like you said, max.

And what a year it has been.

Obviously, we're a couple months into the season and we were discussing this beforehand.

How deep do you need to go in our sort of mariners preseason top producer, top prospects list before you find a prospect who is having a disappointing year relative to expectations? You know, that doesn't really to me account for Teddy McGraw, Cole Phillips, who, you know, we knew we're going to be out all year.

How deep do we have to go before you find someone who is having even a mediocre year?

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I mean, we were, we were mentioning like, if you really want to like, nitpick, you could say Ty Pete hasn't ops to 900 like everybody else has.

John Trupin
Yeah. And really it's time to take this 18 year old in affiliated ball to task like one of the youngest players. What are you doing, Ty?

Max Ellingson
You know, and he's also playing fabulous shortstop and a dynamic athlete on the bases. Like he's.

He was always going to be a long term project and the fact that he's, you know, around 700 and 5800, I'm more than. I'm more than fine with it.

Yeah. I mean, you got to go a ways down. I'm not sure exactly where we had everybody preseason, but.

John Trupin
So, so I'm going to go. We're going to go. I can just go rapid fire here. We're going to go back from one.

Max Ellingson
Okay.

John Trupin
Uh, number one, we had Cole young doing great.

Doing great in double a. Right?

Max Ellingson
Fine with him. Yep.

John Trupin
I mean, he's playing short. And second, they're, they're getting him prepared for, for either role.

As far as I've seen, he's looked fine. Continued to look solid.

Kate Pruser
Solid.

Max Ellingson
A little bit more power. A little bit more power.

John Trupin
He is actually like, yeah, that's a great.

Kate Pruser
I was describing the difference to Adam Jude between, like, watching Lazaro Montez and watching Cole Young and, like, watching Lazaro Montez is like eating a pepperoni pizza. Like, it's so satisfying and fun.

Watching Kul Young is like eating a really healthy plate of vegetables that have been, like, steamed and they're very good for you, and it's, you know how good for you it is, and it's tasty, but it is just so balanced. You feel very virtuous almost.

Watching Nicole Young take at bats, you're like, yes, that's what a baseball player looks like.

This is Brussels sprouts in human form, not the rogue.

Max Ellingson
When he got drafted, it was like, if you watch Cole Young play one day, you probably don't think too much of it. If you watch Cole play Young or Cole Young play for a week, you're going to be realizing that you want this guy on your baseball team. Yeah, that still holds true pretty much.

Kate Pruser
Extremely consistent performer, which the 2024 Mariners perhaps could take some notes from.

John Trupin
Yeah, it's, it's not a terrible thing to want somebody who just hits for good average and gets on base a lot.

And as you mentioned, max, I mean, has begun hitting for some more power as the years gone on here, which, you know, it's sort of a hard, it's sort of a weird thing with the Texas League of, like, a few of the parks are just, they're there for that, but, you know, he's, he's already, like, you know, hitting. He's hitting for basically, he's doing everything solidly. And that's, that's what you hope for from Cole Young, especially given. For as much as he's like, oh, he's the mature veteran. He's 20 in double a. Right? Like, yeah, I need to instinctively sometimes remember, like, this isn't, like, the polished college performer. This is, like, also need just stop being a teenager.

Max Ellingson
He could spend, like, four years in the Texas League and still be an average, like, of age wise. So he's doing great.

John Trupin
Yes.

Sharing the field with him and sharing the doing great. And really, you know, was someone, if you were going to be at all worried about for some of, you know, for the first month of the year, maybe Harry Ford was kind of tepid, right?

Not particularly anymore.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, he's really turned it on. He's. He's in a little bit of a kind of, like, weak ish because he was flaming hot for better part of a month.

But, you know, he's just, you know, saying kind of same old Harry Ford gets on base a ton, walks a ton. He's been stealing bases. I mean, you know, he's just. He's a dynamic athlete that plays catcher and gets on base. That's never a bad thing, especially when you're 21 in double a.

Kate Pruser
It almost feels like we don't appreciate Harry Ford enough, because I think you look at what he does at the plate, but really, the way that he handles the pitching staff, he has a cannon for an arm.

He's come along so much better as a catcher than I think anyone kind of thought he was going to.

And all the people who are, like, predicting a transition to the outfield or whatever, they've been able to maintain him as catcher, which is maybe less value organizationally to the mariners because they've got a pretty good guy there. It is good Cal Rawley insurance if you can't extend, and Cal Rawley, for whatever reason, it's extremely valuable in the trade market, though.

So that's something that Harry has been able to do, has given them that flexibility to maintain him in that role. And that's why you'll hear him come up the most in trade scenarios, I think even though it would really, really suck to lose Harry Ford.

John Trupin
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Max Ellingson
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John Trupin
Play it now with Game pass.

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John Trupin
Yeah, I will also just throw in because there's not a ton. You know, it's hard to do minor league fielding data. I mean, it's hard to do major league fielding data, but it's particularly hard to do minor league fielding data publicly in particular. But Harry Ford grades out as like, an elite, elite, elite framer. And at least by, like, the metrics that are available, which, I mean, I am, I am chilling for baseball perspectives where I, you know, I obviously am enthused about some of it, but, like, there is minor league framing data and catcher data, and he grades out. Last year he was staggeringly good at Everett, and this year he continues to be well above average there. So, yeah, I think it's really, really encouraging there. Yeah.

Max Ellingson
I've never understood that sentiment where it's like, they've got to move him off catcher. He's absolutely. Can play catcher at the big league level.

Kate Pruser
I think it's just because the, the failure rate on high school catchers. Right. Like, it is so, it's still so high. Right. I feel like it's better than in recent years as, like, just scouting and development have improved. But I think there's still a perception in the industry, like, I'll even call it a prejudice, that if you're a high school catcher, either your bat will fail or your glove will fail, and they just don't expect you to do because it's extremely, extremely hard.

John Trupin
And, I mean, with Ford, I think the opportunity cost is he has more athleticism than many catchers. Are you going to either sacrifice having that player who could be an everyday player effectively in another position instead only play four or five times a week? And also, is, are those, is that athleticism going to wear down more quickly than it would at another position? Both, I think, are fair points, but we haven't really seen that be an issue. Certainly durability has not been an issue thus far for him.

And, yeah, I mean, every, every other aspect, it's, he's just, he's, he continues to do just fine.

Just fine is, I think, understating we're two sevenths of the way through baseball. America's seven top 100 prospects for the Mariners at the moment right now, and the top prospect and the top prospect for a number of different individuals in the system at this point is Colt Emerson, who, I mean, it's hard to imagine a year that, I mean, the challenges he's been hurt. Right.

But when healthy, I mean, it's hard to imagine much better than what Emerson has shown.

Kate Pruser
I wonder if he gets a little bit of a bump from being in the system because it feels wild to me that he has leapfrogged. I mean, I personally agree. I find if Koyoung is a mixed grilled vegetable platter, then Colt Emerson definitely has some sizzling fajitas on top. He just brings, there's a little extra pizzazz, there's a little extra spark to his game, I think, while still being incredibly well rounded. I am surprised that after Cole Young being in the system for a couple years and performing, Harry Ford's been in the system and performing that they evaluators have been so quick to leapfrog Emerson, who just hasn't done as much and has spent time on the Il over those two.

This is where it's always like, are you looking at the prospect potential? Are you looking at the prospect production and weighing the potential in with that?

I love potential so much, but I feel like you've, you kind of got to give it up for the guys who have done it and who are doing it at the upper levels of the miners. But I'm curious why you guys think Emerson was such a fast mover.

Max Ellingson
I personally think Emerson moved so fast. One, because of his absolutely torrid start. Right. That's going to obviously buoy him up a bit.

However, I think he is getting moved up so quickly, quickly because the, the foundation of him is so, so, so sound.

He walks a ton. He swings at the right pitches. He really doesn't strike out all that much. And he plays shortstop and he was young. We have to remember he was one of the younger people in the draft as well as typeet. He was either freshly turned 18 or 17 when he was drafted.

And.

Yeah, okay. Yeah, he was.

He's incredibly young as well, and he's showing this advanced approach that is very refined and just very balanced for someone that is his age. You add in the fact that he's also impacting the ball with, you know, some of the best players in the entire minor league. That's really easy to dream on, especially when you've got, you know, some projectibility. He's really filled out and he's still playing shortstop. There's, I kind of see what people are dreaming on because there's not as many hurdles to, to jump over in.

Kate Pruser
Okay.

Max Ellingson
Is he going to hit? Is he going to walk? Is he going to be a big strikeout guy? You've kind of already answered that to some extent. He still only has about 200 plate appearances, which is obviously a factor. However, those 200 plate appearances, frankly, you cannot draw them up any better. So I think that's kind of why he's gotten this huge inflation in ranking. Maybe it's a little too much, I don't know. But I think he's such a stud and so sound all around that I think that's kind of where it's coming from.

John Trupin
Yeah, I think you're absolutely spot on. It's the degree to which he's hitting the, the ball harder than expected is extraordinary. And at least from what little I've seen and from reading others who have watched more of him, he, people feel more confident that he's going to be a shortstop than was initially thought because he hasn't had to bulk up so dramatically to get this power to the point where he looks like he needs to be a third base. Now, maybe that still happens, but yeah, it's, that is incredibly exciting. I, you know, I am still not, not skeptical exactly, but I do, I am, you know, I do lean more towards performance than the, than metrics on occasion. And this is one of those situations where I do have, it's so extreme how much people suddenly talk him up that it's a little, to me like K. But in no way does that. I mean, it's really just, it is, I think, instinctive at a certain point. The, well, he's just in this system where there's so many people doing well, I am skeptical of everything being this good all the time. But, I mean, as we're going through it, right. Lazaro Montez was our number four. Again, just, okay, I'm not going to strike out that much anymore.

Max Ellingson
Like, I mean, he just decided not to. He was going to hit the ball all the time and he was going to hit it 114 off the bat. I mean, just going by, I don't want to jump the ship too much, but going by year, his strikeout rate started in the DSL at 33.2%.

Guys that strike out over 30% of the time in the DSL historically do not go very far.

That is not, that is not a demographic of, you know, people. Next year he goes, okay, I'm going to do a little better. I'll go 25 and change.

That was, you know, 25.3 next year. Last year, 25, you know, pretty consistent across the two levels last year. And then this year, he just comes out and he's like, all right, I'm just going to do 17.3% and walk 14% of the time. And slug as a teenager. Yeah, teenager slug a million. I mean, he's. I also don't think he gets enough credit for his ability. I mean, people are saying, like, he is a slug in the outfield. He's not like, he is not a black hole in right field. Okay? He's. He's not like a 20 speed guy, 20 field guy. He's got a good arm.

To me, he reminds me of, like, Nelson Cruz in the outfield. Like, not a good outfielder, but you can get by with it. He's got a good throwing arm to make up for some. You can put him in. Right. Like, moves well, right.

John Trupin
I mean, like, he is a fluid athlete. It's just. He's gigantic.

Max Ellingson
He is six 6250. You know, it's like, great.

Kate Pruser
I do believe that he suffers a little bit from the big men aren't athletic prejudice. Again, you saw some of the same stuff get stuck with Julio, and he just went and trained. Montez already has improved his athleticism, his speed. He spent the off season training that.

I think there's more to be had.

You know, he is a big man, and he is going to be a little limited by that. I don't think he is the kind of elite athlete that Julio is. But can he absolutely play a corner outfield? Yes, he can absolutely play a corner outfield. And like Max said, that arm is going to make up for a lot.

John Trupin
Yeah, I think it's. It's very, very comfortably plausible, and he'll. He'll continue to hit. I mean, you know, you can think about, like, Luke Rayleigh runs very well, looks very rich. It doesn't always matter all that much.

Montez does not move nearly as quickly as Luke Rayleigh, but he does move more fluidly.

I'm going to go a little bit quicker here through some of the next ones here, just because I think it's, you know, it's evident. The point remains evident, but, you know, it's. Tyler Locklear just continues to hit, is in Tacoma and seems, you know, I mean, could not be more obviously ready for that. Right. I mean, you know, bad as steady.

Max Ellingson
Of a performer as you can get.

John Trupin
Yeah.

And, you know, Felnin Celestine only has played a little bit, but looks every bit like a top tier prospect himself. Right. You know, and we're hoping comes to affiliated ball. We're thinking he's coming to affiliated ball soon, you know, is really only blocked by the fact that the Modesto nuts still are retaining 17 viable big league shortstops on their farm for some reason, like the Los Angeles Dodgers would love to trade with, specifically the Modesto nuts. So, like, Mookie bets is like, can I get a break, please?

Max Ellingson
Put me back in right field.

John Trupin
Let me, let me do something else.

Yeah, I mean, you know, Jonathan classe doing well in Tacoma and, you know, has not obviously had a ton of success in the bigs, but is 22 and, you know, has debuted and is going to continue to be up and down, you know, in the, in you in some capacity the rest of the year.

You know, it's, it's just been really solid. Jeter Martinez pitching and looking good.

Johnny Farmello, very good.

Kate Pruser
You want to talk about breakout star? That is, especially with Emerson being down. I feel like Farmello is getting a lot of well deserved shine. He is very exciting, very dynamic.

Max Ellingson
The man. He is the man.

Love me some farmello.

Kate Pruser
Love him as a leadoff hitter. Love him in that role, too. And just the way that that nuts line up. I mean, the nuts lineup is so, so brutal for opposing pitchers. You, it is just banger after banger after banger. No breaks, all gas, no breaks up and down. It's. It's really fun to watch if you are a fan of the modesto nuts and no one else.

John Trupin
Yeah.

I don't know if this is true, but I feel as though, you know, Cole Young was the first round pick and was Harry Ford was the first round pick.

Colt Emerson, first round pick, obviously, in a year where they had several picks, but, you know, and then Celestine was, like, the top big signee and Montez is huge and obviously a slugger.

Can y'all encapsulate what it is about Johnny Formello that makes him suddenly one of the mayor's top prospects and one of the top prospects, you know, in baseball for folks who, for folks who probably follow the farm or maybe, you know, don't follow at all or follow the farm, but, like, there's a lot. Imagine, and when there's actually a bunch of good players, it's cool, but there's a lot of, and they're, half of.

Kate Pruser
Them are, and player comps are so, so lazy. But imagine Kyle Tucker but good at center field.

Max Ellingson
Wow, that's, that's, that is.

John Trupin
Yeah.

Max Ellingson
That's crazy. I mean, I don't, I don't think it's bad like he is. I'm not going to do the comp game because I feel like it's, I'd never, it never ends well. I think. I think Jared, the last thing Jerry depot needs to do is start comping minor league players for his pr team.

I think like Bob Gibson. Oh, my God, look at that. Bob Gibson. Yeah. No, just as a player, he is a pure center field. He will absolutely be able to play center field.

He is incredibly athletic. He came into the draft as kind of a more raw power player than a hit player, but he had this swing that was very kind of line drive oriented. That was, you know, you would think would be a very contact oriented swing.

John Trupin
Can we say janky? Right?

Max Ellingson
Yeah, weird, weird swing. He had about four different swings, too, and it's still a little funky. He has basically no follow through.

It's.

John Trupin
Yeah, it, it looks like a tennis swing, right? I mean, like, like, like a, like a backhand. Yeah, like, yeah, it's, it's weird. I watch Johnny Farmella swing.

Max Ellingson
It's weird, but it's, but it's athletic. It's not like, it's like a disjointed weird. It's just a that's what he's doing kind of thing. And he's, and it, he's hitting the crap out of the ball. Like, you know, if it doesn't work, if it works, don't fix it. Or if it's not broke, don't fix it.

Kate Pruser
And also not weird if it works.

Max Ellingson
Exactly.

Kate Pruser
Hybrid of those two.

Max Ellingson
I mean, he is such a, like, he's, I don't know what he's on track to steal for steel wise, but he's, you know, opsing just under, like, 900. He's playing center field, he's stealing bases. He's a really good defender in center field, and he's just the perfect leadoff hitter that has some pop. I mean, what's not to love?

Kate Pruser
Yeah, I mean, I was trying to think of a player to comp him to or, like, what is the role that he plays in this lineup? And, I mean, just, yeah, like, Tucker did jump out to me because even though he's, I think, more athletic than, and faster than Tucker at this point in his career, I don't know what Tucker looked like when he was a prospect, but he has that ability to hang in there and take a really good at bat. He will work his walk.

He will hurt you with that swing, and he'll, he's good at taking what the pitcher gives him and just being like, all right, this is what it's going to be. Then it'll be an RBI. Just going to flick this RBI single into center and, you know, pass it on to the next guy.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, he uses the whole field really well, which is something that is, you know, a pretty advanced trait to display when you're again, a teenager playing against professional pitchers.

Yeah. He's already got 18 steals this year.

I'm not sure exactly what that puts him on track to do, but probably in the realm of 50 plus. I don't. I mean, is that right?

John Trupin
Certainly 40, 40 to 40 is definitely within reach. I think 50 is in reach.

He.

Yeah, I think if you're going for a comp, the ideal for him, to me is Brandon Nimmo with a brain.

Well, and I don't. Brandon's a great player. Brandon, irrespective of other choices he's made, is. Brandon Nimmo is gotten knocked for. He's like a good.

His defensive play in center field sometimes is baffling, especially for a player who is as athletic as he is.

Kate Pruser
Okay.

John Trupin
And Farmello is comparatively, like, has the athleticism, frankly, has more athleticism, but is instinctive.

Kate Pruser
Yes.

John Trupin
The way he moves, his routes look like, oh, this guy's been doing this.

Kate Pruser
Was going to go to Uva, not a dummy.

John Trupin
Right.

Yeah. And so that, that, that, to me, is sort of what, what you're hoping for. Is that true? Center fielder, like you said, max. And I've been just watching loops of his swing. Right. You know, as we've been doing, as you've been talking about, I. He is.

I think he's my favorite prospect in the system, which is not to say he's my top prospect, but he is.

Kate Pruser
My one you want to watch the most, the one who's at bats. You would probably. And it is a challenge keeping up with this system. I'm always like, who am I? Because I don't want to just turn on Modesto night after night after night.

John Trupin
I counterpoint guilty.

Let's speak for ourselves.

Kate Pruser
We need to. We need to. It is. I will admit that it is. It's a pain to turn on Everett, but I feel like I gotta.

John Trupin
It is. It is. It is the obvious place to watch, and it's obvious for a reason. Like, that is in terms of, like, the stacked rosters that we've seen during our time doing this and, like, you know, max, you know, our time following the miners even before you joined us, like, the Arkansas teams with, like, Julio and Jared and like, Gilbert at various, like, the Raleigh, like, sort of bits of overlap. Yeah. Evan White and then like the.

Was it Jack, not Jackson? What was. There was. There was some point in time where.

I mean, every stage where Julio and Kelnick were together, obviously was pretty extraordinary. But the, like, Jackson teams with Edwin Diaz were also Tyler O'Neal.

Yeah.

Kate Pruser
The Jackson generals, who won the Southern League. They were really fun. Ian Miller, my boy. Ian Miller.

John Trupin
Yes.

There's another team, I'm forgetting that is in the past, like, several years that is, was sort of on, on a similar level here. But. But regardless, like, this modesto is outrageous. It is outrageous.

I'm gonna cruise through the rest. I mean, two more shortstops from Modesto. Tai, Pete, Michael Arroyo, just ho hum.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, yeah.

John Trupin
Ho hum. What? I mean, Pete, like, you know, I think you, you've been talking about Max, right? Having a disappointing stretch by just being hurt and then being incredibly good when he's 18 years old and just playing great defense and running like crazy.

Max Ellingson
Yeah. He's not blowing the doors off, and that's why he's been the most disappointing with large, you know, air quotes and asterisks.

Yeah. He was never going to be the guy that comes in and is just this pure hitter that's going to move quick. That was not why they drafted type heat. Type Pete was going to be a development, and they thought that they could get the most out of his skillset. It's not going to be a one year process.

He's hitting the crap out of the ball. That said, there's, it's not, there are not.

He's not without concern.

He is one of the most Deadpool hitters I've watched ever, and he gets robbed of a lot of base hits and that he otherwise would be going through the hole if fielders didn't have to, you know, if they didn't know to just play him in the pseudo shift.

So he has, I mean, the strikeouts, I'm concerned about a little bit, the, the pole, you know, I wish he would just go the opposite. Like, if he could just hit a left center field double, like, I would be like, yes, yes, yes. But, you know, he's still so young. Like, you can't, he's not in the upper, upper echelon, you know, but he is firmly in the, you know, top.

I, however you want to break your tears down. I don't know, but he's still very much in that realm.

John Trupin
I made a pretty fervent statement about Michael Arroyo, which I do intend to back up here, which is, he is my favorite.

He's my prospect. I think I would put after for whatever order I would put for Montez, Emerson, and Farmello. I think Arroyo would be up in that right after that for me, it is just a personal belief in his game. I think he is not necessarily the strongest, strongest defensive shortstop of the group, and I think he's probably better at third or second, which max, I think. Would you agree with that?

Max Ellingson
I would, 100%. I don't think he's a shortstop, unfortunately. He just doesn't have the granted. I do get to watch Tai Pete and Cole Young and all these guys play, you know, pretty damn good shortstop, but he does not move like. Like them.

Kate Pruser
I mean, he. Well, he fits that, like, little spark plug second baseman model.

Max Ellingson
That's how I seem to know.

Kate Pruser
Right. Like, he's short and kind of squat a little bit in a way that. Where the other guys are ranging. Just body type, I think. And he. I don't. I'm not concerned about him hitting enough for second base. Like, he's got some power.

John Trupin
I. I agree, and I guess the thing with.

In sort of the inversion of.

Not inversion of Pete, but, like, what I. A large part of what makes me optimistic, so optimistic about Arroyo is the way that he hits off speed pitches, and certainly plenty of his performance is on fastballs. But I have seen enough of him going down and getting, frankly, good breaking balls. Like, are these not like, just hung breaking balls, but, like, breaking balls at the bottom of the zone and hitting, pulling line drives, spraying line drives, spraying home runs the other way? Like, half of his home. He's got, like, six homers this year. I think, like, half of them are oppo.

You know, he's.

I just. There are the characteristics in the way he plays that, to me, I see as a 19 year old, as he gets older, stronger, probably not that much bigger, but, like, can get stronger. And especially if he's only being asked to play second or third, can. Can lock in a little bit more to that strength. I think that those traits will serve him particularly well.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, barrel control never is a bad thing to possess, especially when you're 19.

He's got a little bit of that Gabby Gonzalez kind of spray it everywhere hockey kind of, you know, maybe not the ideal body, but he's just gonna hit, you know?

John Trupin
Yes. And I mean, unlike Gabby Gonzalez. Right. He walks as well.

Max Ellingson
Yeah. You know, and he also plays a more premium position.

John Trupin
Right, right.

So that's. That's sort of. That's. That's my full, full hard sell on array. We're coming up.

Max Ellingson
Clarify. I think you would. So you'd have him at, like, six, is that what? Because I think you said four, but I think you forgot Cole Young.

John Trupin
I would have him what young Emerson for and Farmella. Yes, you're right. So I would have him. I would have him at six ahead of Celestine.

And I don't know. I don't know what to do about Logan Evans. I would have him ahead of Locklear, which is maybe I don't. I don't know if I fully believe that, but I kind of believe.

Max Ellingson
I like to say it.

John Trupin
I like Locklear a lot. But, boy, you got to be really good to be a right handed hitting first baseman at what Ty France was doing at this time. And then, you know, whatever. Um.

And, yeah, I mean, we're just, you know, closing out the top here, you know, Hancock.

At least I'm not. I don't have a complaint about Hancock. You know, it would be great if he was doing more, but, like, it's been a acceptable filler starter.

Max Ellingson
He's a sick starter. You know, he's.

John Trupin
Yeah, Teddy McGraw. I don't know. He's got arms, maybe checking. Check back next year. Ryan Bliss performing better in AAA and well enough to make the big league roster.

And, I mean, we had pre lander, Baroa. So we'll. We'll bump up to Cole Phillips, who, again, you know, TJ, I think we have to get to. Zach Deloach, traded prelander. Traded Alberto Rodriguez. Finally, someone who is not really performing as well as we would hope. That is our number 18 preseason prospect, our number 15, if you discount people who were traded by the time.

Max Ellingson
And I think right behind him, we had Aiden Smith.

John Trupin
We.

We had Walter Ford. But that is a good segue. Yeah, well, he's throwing. I don't know what the heck's going on. Maybe that's a little. That's a little rough. But talk to me about Aidan Smith, because I'll say this. I certainly wouldn't have Aidan Smith down there.

What if we were to, like, formally re rank these now?

Max Ellingson
Not even close.

John Trupin
Yeah, talk to me.

Max Ellingson
I think Aiden Smith is my Michael Arroyo for. For you, John.

John Trupin
I think that's pretty appropriate. I will say this. If people are not sure who Johnny Formello is, they really wouldn't necessarily know about Aidan Smith. So give me the.

Kate Pruser
Sounds like a player comp time.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I mean, Aiden Smith does a pretty much the exact same thing as Johnny Farmello, but hits right handed and was drafted in the fourth round.

He was a top 100 guy coming out of last year's draft, which was absolutely loaded.

And he went the fourth round, but he got, like, second round money.

He. I. I love watching Aiden Smith play. He is so like his command of the strike zone so good. He's always swinging at the right pitches. I rarely see him chase.

He is an exceptional outfielder as well. He has a great arm and he could play center field if Johnny Farmello wasn't doing it as well.

A lot of people. Pre draft, I saw some people have him as a 70 center fielder coming out of high school. I don't know about that, but, you know, that just kind of gives a glimpse into, you know, how good he can be.

He's got some power, too. He hit a homer the other day that I think was like 112 off the bat or something.

You know, just. Just a complete player. And again, a teenager, you know, he's. He. He just hits. And I. I don't know if anybody was watching this. I'm probably talking to nobody here. But he had this ball where he hit it, and it looked pretty clearly like a home run. And the. The umpire said it was foul and. And he started freaking out, and then their manager got tossed and, yeah, it was. It was a weird situation, but, I mean, he should probably have another homer under his belt. But anyway, I digress.

I love. I love watching him play. He is, to me, he's not all that much different than. Than Farmello in terms maybe not ceiling wise, because I think Farmello has about as high of a ceiling as anybody in this entire system.

However, Aiden Smith is right there with him in terms of polish and production and just. He's checks a lot of boxes. He is.

I want to put him ahead of Celestin because I just haven't seen Celestin, but I. He's like six or seven for me or. Sorry, seven or eight or. Yeah, no, I guess six, seven or eight for me. I go. I go back and forth every day, but, yeah, just a super sound player.

John Trupin
It's. It is one of the best times I, you know, like, there's not quite yet that, like, Julio and Kelnick, likely superstar elements in the system, but there are so many guys who are like.

I mean, if they just keep doing this all. If they keep doing what they're doing all year, they're in that. You know, they're. They're approaching that realm, right. You know, Emerson coming back and continuing to hit like he's hit and then getting promoted continue. I mean, that's the. That's a lot of steps. But, like, a shortstop who is 18 and hits like Emerson, that's what made Jackson Holiday. Jackson Holiday. Right. Is like, yeah, you know, and, you know, this is also going off of the way that, you know, other scouting, you know, folks are talking about it, right, of like, redrafting last that draft, people would have Colt Emerson going in the top five. Like, other teams feel this way, too. So like this is, it's in there. But just the breadth of really, really high quality players is Zen is extraordinary.

Kate Pruser
You have to give a lot of credit to the Mariners scouting and development departments and the job Scott Hunter does because they have done a really and internationally as well, not just in the, the us based amateur draft, but they've done an incredible job, I think, of identifying players who will become major leaguers, who have improved, who have not been disappointments as we've been talking about, who are high character, high quality players, team leaders, and are, I think the Mariners have the second highest minor league winning percentage. Is that right? In.

Max Ellingson
That is. I think that's correct.

Kate Pruser
Yeah.

Max Ellingson
I think Detroit has number one.

Kate Pruser
Yeah.

Max Ellingson
So I just could be wrong on that.

Kate Pruser
But it, it's, it's really a credit. I've said, I've expressed concerns about their scouting at the major league level at times with the, some of the players that they've brought in, but the minor league side, I think, is impeccable.

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Max Ellingson
Yeah, it's, it's pretty flawless. I mean, I think I've got a, I think there's a pretty firm group of twelve or so players that have, you know, really not had a lot of questions surrounding them this year.

You know, if you think of, if you've got even a 25% hit rate on your top echelon of prospects, you've got two or three solid big league contributors right there. And, you know, I think that's a fairly conservative estimate to say a quarter of these guys will be productive big league or so. It's definitely incredibly, incredibly exciting, especially with just how young and dynamic everybody is. They're not. This, the system isn't full of, yeah, this guy's going to be a big leaguer and he'll be Donovan Walton. No offense to Donny Walton, but just, that's not as fun. Right. I would rather have this system where I can, I can see a three win, four win player, you know, and have him go out and just be this truly, like, cornerstone piece. So, yeah, it's, it's exceptionally fun to watch.

Kate Pruser
I do think that this is the best mariner system that we have seen, certainly over my entire time of doing this. And that includes, you know, them churning out big leaguers like Logan Gilbert, like George Kirby, like Julio Rodriguez.

It, the talent that is collected there now, because I feel like a lot of the arguments about that generation of the Mariners farm was that it was top heavy. This one does not feel top heavy to me at all. You've got a lot of different kinds of players. There's maybe a high concentration of shortstops. You're going to see that, or infielders in general, you're going to see that, I think, because everyone's a shortstop until they're not, or everyone's a center fielder until they're not.

But it's, it's these guys. It's in all different areas. It's strong. Up the middle you have catcher, you have the infield short and second you have center.

And there are guys who are contributors, too, who are not like the bigger names but are still quiet contributors.

John Trupin
Well, who stands out, you know, beyond? Because this is, these are pretty much everyone we've discussed is a, is the high level guys is a top pick.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

John Trupin
Or was a top signee. And like you said, max, that's massive. That like, to have those players actually all look like they're going to turn into big league contributors to not have, you know, Jordan Becks or which one is it? Austin Beck, whatever. You know, a bunch of guys who are, you know, have these high ceilings but ultimately are not converting into what you need.

That's massive. That is, that is massive. But who are some folks deeper down or who look like they might fill out that depth a bit more?

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I think if we want to count Ben Williamson, I think we can because he was.

John Trupin
I think we do.

Max Ellingson
Yeah. I have him, you know, just outside that upper echelon and it's no discredit to him on his performance this year. He's been fantastic.

He's just a little bit older and that's really it.

He, he has looked amazing. I, I love watching him play third base. Rarely do I see third baseman where I'm like, wow, that was like a sick, like, that was really awesome to watch. It's because, you know, third bases, you know, it's not, it's not shortstop. So he, he is a fantastic defender and frankly he's hitting much better than I think most people anticipated. He had a really late surge in his career. He was pretty middling for his first three ish years at William and Mary. Not exactly a powerhouse. Great team. Great team. Go tribe.

John Trupin
But I know you said it right. But I did. It sounded a little like you said Willie and Mary, which I think is called Willie.

Max Ellingson
Yeah. Willie. Willie and Mary. Yeah.

No, yeah. They're, they're a fantastic team. I know they're very analytically inclined. And he pretty much just, his final year just got really, really good and he started hitting the ball really hard and plays a fantastic third base and that's 100% translated to his professional career. And he's, you know, it's already in Double A. That's fantastic. And he's actually doing pretty well in double A. So I don't know how he figures in at the immediate moment, but he, you know, it's just another guy that's just contributing and is from that 2023 class that has looked fantastic.

John Trupin
So, yeah, absolutely.

I will throw in my because, and fret not, folks, we are going to talk about pitchers because there are a couple, but I will throw in my annual.

Spencer Packard is better than this.

He's sort of taken on to some degree. The Eric Felia role I think of just really at every stage is a good hitter, has more power than Felia by a significant margin, which, you know, is sort of, it's not exactly saying much, but, but, you know, just is hitting 292 again in Arkansas and walks a thousand percent of the time and doesn't strike out that much and just hits for. Okay, power.

You know, I won't even say he's not been hitting for a ton of power this year, but also all of last year was a above average hitter. I just think there's no reason for them to not give him a shot in Tacoma, especially given Tacoma's pretty, whatever collection of folks around class a out there. So he is my pitch.

Are there any other sort of scratch the folks, folks in the fringes that. That you've seen that have been. Been enticing at any of the levels, whether they're at the upper levels or maybe even further down the system?

Max Ellingson
This one is the. The zam. The zam special. I know Sam loves Brock Rodden.

John Trupin
Rock Broden.

Max Ellingson
Rock rocket Broden. Yeah, he is.

He's been amazing. He was really good as when he came up for Modesto. He has their kind of two hole hitter.

When they made that crazy run and they decided to never lose a game.

John Trupin
It was a great choice by.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, and they've kind of decided to keep that going this year.

John Trupin
They have the best run differential in minor league baseball.

Max Ellingson
I saw some metric where, like, Modesto had a better run differential than all but two Triple A teams who had played an extra ten games or something. Or run scored or something. I think it was run scored, which is just absurd.

Anyway, yeah.

Brock Rodden, kind of similar to Ben Williamson in that he was an older sign from last year's draft.

He's. He might go out and win the Northwest League mvp. I mean, he's. He's kind of head and shoulders ahead of everybody offensively.

I did see the announcer. He was kind of hyping him up, and he put out the league leader sheet, and he had highlighted where Brock Rodden sits and everything. And he's leading in like six of the 13, and he's on the sheet for all of them.

I did think it was funny that one of them was caught stealing, which I'm like, okay, well, maybe we don't need to lead the league in caught stealing, but, um. But, yeah, I mean, he's just. He's like a spark plug type player. He's. He's a utility guy. He'll play second, he'll play third. He played shortstop in college. He's not a shortstop professionally, but he'll bounce around. He's got some speed. He's got some pop.

He hits the ball exceptionally hard, especially in college. He did. And that's kind of why he went so high. He was kind of a metric. Metric, darling, so to speak.

But he's a little undersized and still he's got that pop, so, you know, he's having a great year.

John Trupin
Yeah, I do think, you know, it's sort of even probably underselling him. But like having this be the realm where there's like, oh, yeah, that guy could be Donnie Walton or yes.

Kate Pruser
As opposed to like number ten.

John Trupin
That's a great place. Right?

Max Ellingson
If you're getting to 15 and you've got this kind of guy, that is where you're like, okay, my utility guys ops ing 900, stealing bases and doing that. That's what, this is great.

Kate Pruser
That's what we talk about when we talk about a deep system, a balanced system, a system that's not top heavy.

So Packard, Rod and Williamson, I'd like to kick it to a couple of pitchers because I feel like we are thin on pitchers, but there are two. One who is more under the radar than others, I think real, real Mariners prospect heads know about Michael Morales, I think, who after two years of scuffling through the Cal league, has gone to Everett, an objectively, I think, tougher place to pitch in those small ballparks once.

John Trupin
Yeah, it's tricky. Cause like the weather factor and the cow league parks, a bunch of. I mean, overall, it is still like the most pitcher or hitter friendly league, I think.

But, like in. I feel like once the weather changes. I'm sorry, Kate, I think you may have been literally about to say this, but once the weather changes, because the northwest league, the challenges, April and May, you're still playing games. And it's frigid in most of these places, but, like, once it actually gets warm, most of these parks are for the bats.

Kate Pruser
Yeah.

John Trupin
Um, and, uh. Yeah, it's. He is not, uh. He is. He is handling himself just.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

Kate Pruser
So we'll see if he can keep on this. I mean, they're already playing games in places where it's warm, like the Tri cities. You know, they're going east of the. Of the mountains. Um, but I. I'll let Max talk about this because he watched Morales's last start where he struck out ten, which tied a career high, which also happened on May 18. So his last, like, few starts have been really good.

But again, Max watched that start from beginning to end. So I'll let you talk about that. I'm huge on Michael Morales, though, have always been.

This is really like, it. It does take a long time to develop a high school pitcher. They're challenging. They don't always work out. We saw what happened with, like, Sam Carlson. I feel like there have been some misses in there. Obviously, Walter Ford is maybe a slower developing, but that's just the timeline that you commit to when you draft a high school pitcher, it feels like. And now Morales is really starting to, to pop a little bit.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I've definitely, I've still, I'm not giving up on, on Ford, the vanilla missile. I still have, still have faith. He was super young when he got drafted, even for a high school pitcher, but that's not what we're talking about.

Yeah. Morales last night, he's just, he's just a, he's just a stud. He's a, he's a complete pitcher. He's not going to blow anybody away with his stuff.

If he threw like 2 miles an hour, 3 miles an hour faster, you're looking at like a, like a truly special guy, but he doesn't, and that's fine.

He, you know, still, he's still like 92, 91. Like 91 to 94, I'd say, on the fastball and, but he's just got a, he's just throws the kitchen sink. He's got that new gyro slider this year, which I know Kate is very, very intrigued by, and it's paid dividends.

He's down. I think he's got like a two and a half era, something like that, and he's just not giving up any home runs in an Everett ballpark that has one of the shortest right field porches effort I saw in the game yesterday. The leadoff hitter hit like a, it was something like a 330 foot, you know, can of corn, and it was on the warning track. I mean, it was, yeah, you'll, you'll.

John Trupin
Hear the broadcasters every now and then, and they do a great job, but, like, you'll hear the broadcast just be like, man, that's a home run run here. That would not, that would be a can of corn anywhere else.

Max Ellingson
345.

Kate Pruser
Yeah, exactly.

Max Ellingson
But, yeah, he's just decided he's just not giving up any home runs, and he gave up a nuke last night. I will say that was long gone to left field. It was definitely not a short porch, anything, but, you know, the control there is there. The command is there.

He doesn't have the ceiling of these kind of prior guys that have been through. I think we've all been a little bit jaded by just how good mariners pitching prospects have turned out historically. They really don't have that many misses.

He's probably like a backhand arm still. But the fact that he's showing this development means that I have much more confidence in him getting a shot at a big league call up after repeating Modesto and not necessarily progressing, not necessarily regressing, but just kind of doing exactly the same thing. I can't say I wasn't hesitant to kind of give up, in a sense, but he's revamped. He's revamped his arsenal. He's throwing that slider. Curveball was really good last night. That was kind of his main weapon.

Um, this kind of big, bendy, slow. It's a slower curve, but it's, you know, it's got some serious, serious bend. You know, just. He's just a. He's still only 21. Like, come on. Like, he is younger than I am, and I. I consider myself a moron that is still 16 in my eyes. So, yeah, he's, uh.

He's.

He's great. I mean, do I think he'll. He's not. He's still several years away, and he's, you know, still. He's. He's got things to work on.

If he could just find a little bit of velocity, he would be so, so good. But, you know, not everyone is with.

Kate Pruser
That, you know, as a pitch, as a pitchability righty, with who throws the kitchen sink at you. I mean, the Astros have developed that over and over and over again.

Max Ellingson
And if he gives you big league innings, that's a win. That is absolutely a win. So, you know, he. He could be. He's. He's one of. I mean, obviously, Evans is ahead of him just with his resurgence, but I would say he's probably too behind him in the system. Unless I'm forgetting somebody.

I maybe. I mean, Teddy McGraw, Cole Phillips. What? I mean, I think that's fair.

Kate Pruser
I would like to. To now please drop my sleeper. Sleeper.

John Trupin
Okay, can I just go ahead one, like, have Jeter. Martinez is in that.

Max Ellingson
Jeter. I forgot Jeter. Yeah.

John Trupin
But is so far removed from things.

Max Ellingson
I mean, I do have Jeter ahead of Michael. I do.

Kate Pruser
I forgot Jeter is still literally learning how to pitch, I think, and developing.

John Trupin
But looks good doing it so far and is very appropriate for wearing.

Kate Pruser
He's a ceiling guy. Absolutely. Absolutely. And we should not, not talk about him. Um, he's just so far off. Uh, Ashton. Izzy. Ashton. Izzy has been.

John Trupin
Is he something?

Kate Pruser
I know he's, uh, again, after, like, sort of a rough start to things. He's been really solid for Modesto. He's actually improved. You know, he was in the ACL last year, and he had, like, an eight era or something. You know, it was a development, and I was like, okay, this is a long term prospect, but he's been really solid for Modesto. He's got an era of, I think, just over two.

He's struck out 34 in 43 innings. He has also walked 26. So that's going to be his.

That's going to be his thing to work on, is continuing to work on the command, but it's been after that was someone who I had sort of, like, relegated to the back of my mind with all these, like, young pitching prospects. You just have to, like, file them all in a drawer somewhere, and when they tell you it's time to pay attention to them, you can pull them out and, like, look at them more carefully. But so, like, Izzy is the next name. I feel like for me, that has kind of emerged from that drawer, and it's like, look at me, look at me.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, he's been. He's been great. Sorry, John, you can go ahead.

John Trupin
No, no, no, please.

Max Ellingson
Oh, yeah.

John Trupin
I was going to talk about an additional aspect, but please finish.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, Izzy, he was, he was like another kind of Aiden Smith kind of deal where we drafted him in the fourth round but gave him big money.

I think he and Walter Ford could have strikingly similar development traits. Tracks.

Kate Pruser
That's the round that I call, like, how much do you hate the idea of college? That's where your real scholars are, not.

John Trupin
Where your limoncelli's.

Kate Pruser
Yeah, those are the guys who are like, what will, what will, how much will you give me for me to not have to go to school for a while?

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I mean, there he definitely. I don't know what his deal was because he was genuinely, like, really bad in the ACL and I don't know, you know, a lot of stuff happens behind the scenes, so I don't really know exactly what happened, but he's just limited damage. A lot better because the walks are still an issue. They've gotten better as the season has gone on, too.

I think he started off the year, if I remember correctly, just walking like four guys a game or something, ever an outing not per nine.

And, and it's, it's, it's improved steadily. It. He's kind of getting down to the one two areas and strikeouts are, you know, he's.

Ideally, you'd be striking more guys out if you walked that many guys, but, yeah, he's just looked pretty phenomenal, like modestos for as much credit as their lineup gets, I think they're leading the league in most pitching metrics, too, and run prevention and stuff like that. So there's, you know, there's definitely some guys.

Kate Pruser
You don't get a 115 run differential if you're, like, pitching staff is out there giving it up all the time, which.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

John Trupin
Is Tyler golf something.

Max Ellingson
I'm a Tyler. I'm a golf guy. I've been a golf guy since they drafted him. I've wanted to believe.

I don't think he's like, he's files. Yeah, the golf files were pulling that one out. He's, I think visually, I just love the change up and the breaking slurve kind of thing. They just look so cool, you know, it does look.

John Trupin
He looks again, then this is biased, but it looks weird. Everything coming out of his hand looks weird. And I have to imagine it is the same for hitters because he's not necessarily throwing so hard or so, but hitters are not handling.

Max Ellingson
There was, there was a start last year, and granted he was just coming back from his because he missed a big chunk of last year, but there was a start last year where I think he threw a fastball, like 86 or something. He's not throwing a fastball at 86 anymore, but I was just like, he's. That. I was just kind of jarring to see he's. Yeah, he's like a low nineties guy. Like, you know, 90, 91, 90. You know, he can. He can. He historically has gotten it higher. I just haven't seen it a ton.

Obviously, I can't see the radar either, so I can only kind of gather bits and pieces from when the announcers are, you know, 95, the letters or whatever. Yeah. Like so.

But yeah, it's, you know, he's kind of similar to Morales in the, in the crafty, righty young high school guy. I think he's not as polished as Morales, but he's also not in HiA. He's in Modesto, so that's why he's there.

John Trupin
We got a question. Well, that I think was potentially touched on but not really fully addressed. And we talked about it, Kate, I think last week, but now that we have Max here, I would like to get some insight around, you know, all of this has been talking about the farm and we're going to talk about, we're going to finish up. I'm talking about the trade deadline because we've taken a slight, slight winding path here. But now that we're talking about the pitching sort of options, is there anyone in the system right now other than Logan Evans who they're converting, that you see, especially in a bullpen role?

I'm mostly looking at Arkansas and I guess technically Tacoma, but, you know, sort of Tacoma is mostly a lot of veterans, but even if there are lower in the system. Are there guys who you could imagine contributing to the big league club directly this year in a bullpen? I floated Troy Taylor and Jimmy choice last week, and I feel fine about that. But I wanted to hear from you, Max, as to whether there were other folks, whether. Well, one, if that. If that makes sense from your perspective, and two, if there are other folks that you think might. Might fall in that group as well.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, Troy Taylor was the guy that immediately came to mind. He's got the best stuff as a reliever at that kind of. That's approaching the big leagues.

Jimmy Joyce, I think, is. Is fine. I think he would. He would be like, some serious stuff is going down if Jimmy Joyce is pitching in the big leagues, but, yeah.

John Trupin
They'Ll be waiver claiming plenty before they go to Jimmy Joyce, I think, unless he's really shown up.

Max Ellingson
Yeah. And I mean, there's even been some guys in Tacoma, like kind of. They're older, but, you know, I mean, they still got Carlos Vargas. I'm not. I think they're trying to develop Carlos Morris.

He isn't.

I'm not saying they should call him up.

John Trupin
No, this is not about you. This is about Carlos Vargas.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

John Trupin
Where. Where is your. Wherefore art thou are Johan? You know, he is throwing faceballs to the backstop.

Kate Pruser
Into coma is what he is doing.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I think they're. I mean, they've got some, like, Joey Crable, I think has been pretty decent. But, like, I think it would. It's either gonna be like a small trade, like. Like a bizarro trade, like bizarro actually still a guy, but, you know, something like that.

But Troy Taylor is the one in the system. I mean, maybe Travis Kuhn. I don't mean maybe that their leads.

Kate Pruser
Are so paper thin because the big league, because the hitters aren't hitting. They cannot put anyone in who they do not absolutely trust to throw strikes and let their offense, let their defense make a play. They cannot have guys who are issuing free passes. And it's a command issue with Kuhn, with Curvello at Arkansas. I think it's why they're transitioning Evans, because Evans can be depended on to throw a strike. I don't know how close quality they're going to be at the major league level, but he can throw a strike.

And the whole Tacoma pen has not been consistent as far as that goes. Degas has great stuff, disgusting stuff. Cannot get a handle on it. Vargas. Same thing. Craig Crabel. I think that's how you say that. I would say is maybe one of the more front runners, Colin Snyder, who I think is up with the big league team right now.

It's just a question of who would like a big league job because there are big league jobs to be had in this bullpen.

It doesn't feel like anyone from the system is stepping up. I fully expect to see perhaps some of these fringier guys that we're talking about, a low level trade with one of the Mariners lesser prospects.

They could waiver claim. I don't know. We'll see how Michael Bauman goes, but I think bullpen help is going to come from outside the organization, and it's going to come sooner than anything else.

Max Ellingson
Outside of Troy Taylor. I think you kind of got a squint at kind of the obvious. Is this a thing? I don't know.

And Troy Taylor's only pitched like four innings in Double A or so, you know, obviously. No, probably.

Kate Pruser
I do not think you can put Troy Taylor into this situation that he just doesn't have the reps, he doesn't have the experience.

It would be prospect mismanagement.

John Trupin
I think it's. Yeah, I think your point, particularly, Kate, is a good one about how they've handled prospects in past seasons and what the nature of their roster is, which is they only either have mop up or has to be like high leverage. Like they just, and they have so much high leverage usage that they can, I mean, obviously they have to find a way to utilize that right there. They're hoping Bauman, I think, in particular can become that.

And they used him as such a game or two ago, but it really is, there is not the space for the one, there's not the type of reliever in there who's like, oh, this is a dynamite high leverage reliever.

And two, there's not a space for many of the younger players to come up, pitch a fair amount because they still ultimately pitch less than most bullpens because the rotation pitches more innings than almost every team. So they just aren't going to get that many reps. And the reps that they would theoretically have to throw are either completely non representative or the highest leverage. And there's very little in between, which I think is more distinct than other clubs.

We're going to, we're going to wrap up here with some trade baiting discussion, and it's, it can be a simple answer. It can be a long answer. I know who I'm talking to. It's not going to be a simple answer, but, and I know myself, I want to be highly clear. I am rude. Quite. I like to locate who is untouchable.

Max Ellingson
Man. Man, wait, can we just do the.

Kate Pruser
Standard blanket like known as untouchable for the right price, for the right return, blah, blah, blah. There's no such thing.

John Trupin
Mookie bets for sure.

Kate Pruser
Yeah.

John Trupin
I do think that nuance, though, is at least it's partially valuable because, like, the best player available at the deadline is probably, or at least the best players. Compton slash contract circumstances. What, Luis Robert and probably just in terms of the youth and more years of control relative to like or, you know, Alonso, who's, who's a full rental now. Bichette maybe. But I don't. Wait. Hard to say what that is. But that with that in mind still, you know, full quote unquote untouchable.

And then I would also love to know, you know, who's the best player you would be comfortable with trading this deadline or even who's the best player you think the team would be comfortable trading at the deadline.

Max Ellingson
Kate, you want to go or you want me to take it first?

Kate Pruser
I'll go.

I think it depends on who you're matching with.

So are you matching with a team who is looking at beginning a long rebuild scene cycle, like the Angels actually, or like the White Sox? I would consider them beginning a rebuild cycle because those teams, I think, are maybe more interested in your very young position players and are more willing to gamble on someone like a Taipei or, you know, maybe they make Johnny formello available. He is sort of the hot thing right now. I don't know about how the foot injury affects Colt Emerson's like, probably not very much.

John Trupin
Honestly, I would be surprised. It does not, it doesn't seem major. The team. No one seems concerned about it. Just a little ding, not structural.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

Kate Pruser
And it's, he's not a players had a history of that or anything. So I think, like, if you're looking at trading with one of those teams there, they don't mind acquiring a project, acquiring something that is long term. If you're in a team that has a shorter return to contention cycle, they might be interested in a Cole Young or a Harry Ford. And again, I'd be comfortable. I'm comfortable with giving up any prospect in the system for the right return, which I think means if you're taking someone out, you know, it should be structured along the lines of a Lewis Luis Castillo type deal. I would do that deal again, over and over again in a heartbeat. And that was with a weaker system.

So no shade to Noel v. Marte, who I still think is a great player, you know, PD suspension aside, or Edwin Arroyo, who I know is still kind of getting it going. But that's, that wasn't at the time, I think it felt like it was viewed as an overpay by the Mariners, but it was actually just the right pay. It got them the services of Luis Castillo, which has helped them, continues to help them.

It would have to be, again, one of those things where it's an impact player who's going to immediately do something to lift the rest of the team and who has a mindset where if they are on an expiring deal or just one year left, maybe someone who would be interested in signing with Seattle and making that sacrifice that you gave up in prospects worth it long term. So, yeah, I don't think there's anyone untouchable. It has to be the right deal and it has to be. If you were talking about giving up players from this top ten, something that significantly moves the needle. So I'm still cogitating on what that might look like, and I think you have your obvious sellers with the White Sox.

Robert would be great. Does he like really lift the needle for the Mariners? I don't know about this year. Could they bring him back in the future?

I just don't know. I think that there might be some more time where we figure out, like what are the Giants going to do? Like what are these teams that are kind of hovering around 500 going to do?

Because all those deals look different as far as return to contention cycles.

John Trupin
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Max Ellingson
Yeah, absolutely. And I said on the pod yesterday, I was kind of nerding out with a trade index excel sheet. So I've kind of got some names in front of me. And San Fran, San Fran is very, very old. I worry about that roster a bit.

John Trupin
Them and the Blue Jays kind of have a weird similarity to me.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

John Trupin
The Blue Jays lineup is not as old, but the entire pitching staff is in that same place.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, I mean, here's how I'm kind of viewing this, this deadline cycle.

I don't see these kind of, these names that are getting thrown around with Vladi and Robert. And, you know, all these names, they have some, depending on the player, varying degrees of warts. And there's some major concerns. I mean, Robert has played 100 games in his career. One time he's. And it was last year, which fair. But, you know, that's not an insignificant concern, especially with a profile or player profile that historically has not translated to T Mobile all that well.

That said, he's a 26, 27 year old superstar when he's playing, and that's hard to bet against.

However, here's my kind of take with the, the untouchables. I don't think there is a player available on the market that I would comfortably trade Colt Emerson for, assuming he's part of a package.

Now, if you, you know, if, if you told me Colt Emerson for Luis Ribert one for one, I'm like, okay, sure, obviously, right. But that's never going to happen. So if, assuming there is a package, I don't think I would trade Colt Emerson in any of them for any of these players that I think are currently available. Obviously, a lot can change, but yeah, I think pretty much outside of that, I would, it would suck to see Farmello go, but I can. I can justify it.

John Trupin
Right?

Max Ellingson
I can see a deal where it's worthwhile.

Aiden Smith is the one I hope they don't trade just because I don't think they would get commensurate value to how good I think he is. I think he would be kind of considered a filler versus a guy that I think in the next year, year and a half could be, like, on similar par with some of these guys. So I hope they don't trade him just. But, like, obviously, if they get value out of him, fine. Right?

Yeah. Emerson's the one I can justify, and I've talked myself into seeing a deal for pretty much everybody else, including Harry, which I really didn't want them to trade Harry for a long time. I. I think he's a stud. I really love what he does, just both off the field. On the field, I think he's amazing.

That said it, the justification where his value as a secondary catcher on the Mariners is probably less than another club where he can start and be their catcher for six years, there's probably more value to be had in another organization.

Obviously, he would provide a ton of value to this organization, and I hope he stays. But, you know, if you're landing a blue chip player that can push you over the edge and it costs Harry Ford and, you know, change, that's. Or not change, it's going to be more. But I say this to say I can see it happening. Other than Colt Emerson, who I think. I think everybody in the league knows he's kind of on a rocket ship, and I. Yeah, I just. I don't know if I'd move him, honestly.

John Trupin
I'm really trawling through because I agree with what you're saying, max. I'm looking to see, like, are there any players, particularly right now and particularly hitters, who are performing well enough to. To be at the level where I would want to see the Mariners move players of this caliber? And are there. Are any of them on teams that are out of it?

Max Ellingson
Yeah, it's maybe like esoc paredes.

Kate Pruser
I was just gonna say him.

I was just.

Max Ellingson
Yeah, he's hitting the crap out of the ball.

John Trupin
Yeah, he is hitting the crap out of the ball.

Max Ellingson
Weird way where he hits it like 14 miles an hour, but it goes over the left field wall for all run.

John Trupin
Yes.

Because, I mean, really, it is just the.

It's not surprising, but the best players in baseball right now are all on the best teams.

You know, it's. It's. Which I guess shocking is. It shouldn't be shocking, right? But it's like, it's judge, it's Soto, it's gunner, it's Bobby Witt junior, it's Mookie, it's Ohtani and Tucker. I mean, Tucker is really, like, the only outlier because the just floored if they.

I think I talked about it.

Max Ellingson
I don't know where that's all coming.

John Trupin
But, yeah, there's no ridiculous. I think there's no way ultimately, and certainly not with the current front office.

Kate Pruser
They have absolutely no way more.

John Trupin
Yeah, but, yeah, you know, it just is, the skew in performance this year, I think, is so heavily towards teams that are actually competitive, and then there's just so many mediocre teams that are kind of in it in the NL.

Kate Pruser
Like, the Royals, honestly, are not a mediocre team, but they are. That Al Central is completely there. It's hard to see, other than the white Sox, like a clear winner and loser there. Even in the AL east, when you're looking at the bottom, you're looking at teams that would be in the thick of it in any other division because the top of it is, it's just such, so top heavy.

John Trupin
Right?

Kate Pruser
Yeah, I think the race.

John Trupin
We talked about the Giants, too, right? We talked about the Giants, too. The Giants and the Padres are two of the only teams that have compellingly solid, and I mean, the Blue Jays are in this as well, who have compelling, like, rosters to trade with.

Kate Pruser
Who do you want from the Giants?

John Trupin
I think all of them are going to be, like, still within the playoff hunt for most of the season for the Giants. I don't, I don't quite know the Rogers brothers. I think the bullpen is, is really where that there could be a move worth doing. But, like the, in terms of the veteran folks, like, honestly, Matt Chapman, oh, my God, I don't think they would do that. I don't think they do it that quickly. I think that'd be wild. But, like, if you're looking for somewhere to upgrade, Matt Chapman's just been solidly, would, would allow them to, would allow the Mariners to move, you know, Dylan Moore into a more corner outfield role or let Rojas and, yes, you know, it would just, it would, you could move the rest of the people around enough that you're still functionally subbing him in for a corner outfield.

Kate Pruser
I think when team, when fans get excited to, like, pick over the rosters of these teams, though, like, they don't really think about it from the perspective of the front offices or the fan bases, which are like, yeah, things are going your way right now, but your job is to draw people into the ballpark. And if you wave the white flag in early June, especially when the team is hovering around 500, no matter what is happening in the division, I feel like that is, and that's when the prices are going to be really expensive. So there's a little bit of a balancing act I think, where you want to be one of the first teams to jump before, before you're in competition with a lot of other teams, before everyone is looking for help all at the same time.

But also the prices right now are outrageous, and the Mariners, I think, are well equipped to pay the asking price. They have the prospect capital, which not every team who wants to be in it is going to have.

They're in a position, I think, where they can sit on their prospect capital.

They can wait for the right moment and wait for some of these teams to either really start to fall out of it or those conversations to get a little bit looser as far as, like, what's available.

I mean, you can pick over the roster of the White Sox for sure. I think you could pick over the A's and the Angels. There's nothing there you want.

John Trupin
It's the Rockies don't have anything. Yeah, I mean, Ryan McMahon, maybe, but Ryan McMahon is not so obviously better than many of the people that you already have.

Kate Pruser
There's a reason why those teams are so far out of it. And I do think if you target a player, maybe even like a Yandy Diaz, who's not having a good year but is on, you know, a team that I would consider the vibes not great on, and sometimes a vibe shift trade at a cheaper price, Yandy Diaz is not going to cost you what Paredes would cost you at all, I don't think. And, you know, that's a. Is that the kind of immediately moves the needle thing? No. But would you have to give up one of those key pieces?

Probably not. So, you know, there's that avenue as well. Obviously, everyone wants a splash trade. Everyone wants something big and exciting, and it feels like this offense needs it.

But there are other avenues to go to improve this team. It will frustrate the fan base, I think, if they improve this team at the fringes, like improving the bullpen, upgrading the positions where they're just not getting anything like dh, move garver, I guess, into a second catcher role in that scenario. I don't know.

John Trupin
I think that's the plan. Sebi is not.

Kate Pruser
I think Sebi is not long for this, for this team. No.

Since they seem utterly unwilling to play.

John Trupin
Him at gunpoint and I'm pretty, pretty utterly unwilling to watch him.

Max Ellingson
Yeah.

John Trupin
Well, I think we're going to call it there, gang, because we've got plenty more that we could talk about. But I am looking forward to seeing how this all plays out, and I think we will get some movement in the next month or two for sure.

Kate Pruser
We think that a round of promotions is going to come here pretty soon, probably at like the end of this first half.

John Trupin
I think the next, I think in a month we're gonna see a bunch of promotions.

I was looking back to sort of see some, one of the bulk of promotions have come, and I think there are a few just like functional times when they have to make them. One being, you know, post draft, when they have to assign players, but the others are, you know, when the DSL starts, when the ACL starts, you see those. And then I think it's the two month mark or so which we're hitting here.

Max Ellingson
So DSL is on right now. Actually, it started earlier this year.

John Trupin
That's right.

Kate Pruser
They did start it early.

Max Ellingson
So I, that's really has no impact on the promotions.

Kate Pruser
But I feel like we'll see some, I do feel like we'll see some movements here in the next, by the end of the month. I think it feels to me like they do like to move people in June. They let you have April and May and kind of get your feet under you. And I feel like we've, we've seen them historically make promotions in June. So that's something to watch for. We'll definitely do this again, especially as we continue to get clarity on, you know, what is out there, because we're getting closer and closer to the all star break. And that's point at which I feel really comfortably like that's where the trade frenzy is going to just absolutely pick.

John Trupin
Up wildfire and where the draft is.

Kate Pruser
And where the draft is. So, so a lot to talk about.

John Trupin
Yes.

Thank you all for joining us. Thank you to McDougall bats.

Use that link in the podcast bio to get yourself a discount on a baseball bat from McDougal bats.

And thank you, Kate. Thank you, Max.

We will be back with more prospect talk soon enough.

Until next time, bye.

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They Might Be Mariners - Do Rising Tides Raise All Boats? Meet at the Mitt Podcast

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1: Player Development Overview

2: Highlighting Key Prospects

3: The Role of Scouting and Analytics

4: Future Implications

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