They Might Be Mariners: 2024 Draft Edition

John Trupen
Hello and welcome to they might be Mariners, the prospects and minor leagues focused branch of the Meet at the Mitt podcast brought to you by the staff of lookoutlanding.com dot. My name is John Truepen. I am deputy managing editor of Lookout Landing.com dot. I am joined today by two of my colleagues. We have Kate Prusser, managing editor of Lookatlanding.com. kate, how are you today on the eve of one of the biggest days in prospectum?

Kate Prusser
That's right. It is tomorrow, isn't it? I'm very excited. I'm excited for a normal draft, normal quote, because we've had the all star game last year, so obviously wasn't in attendance for the draft. Just kind of watched what the Mariners did on tv like everyone else.

2022, they were still remote, I think, and then 2021 and obviously 2020. So this is the first time since, like, I've covered the team, since we have been credentialed that, like, we're going to go down and be there and have a lot of, like, firsthand information from it. So I'm really excited about that front and very grateful to the mariners that they have made that a possibility. It is very nerdily something that I'm very, very excited about.

John Trupen
I was gonna say I'm excited for you to bring magnets from home and try and slip them onto the big board. I'm not sure who that's going to be necessarily, but, you know, letting you in the draft room just bring, like.

Kate Prusser
A blow dart and be like.

John Trupen
Well, I am excited for you to maybe not so excited for the corporate espionage charges that may be coming your way, but it will have been an honor to work with you.

Joining us as well, we have our prospect expert, our prospects writer, Max Allison. Max, hopefully not also preparing white collar crimes over there. How are you, my friend?

Max Allison
Yes, I've not quite got into that level of scheming quite yet.

Kate Prusser
Stick with me, kid.

Max Allison
The next bod. But, yes, I'm doing good. Very excited for tomorrow's draft. Been looking forward to it for a long time. So very excited.

John Trupen
Listen, we hired you not for your present scheming potential, but you have real good, raw scheming potential.

Max Allison
I'm like a 60 fv on the. On the scheming.

John Trupen
Projectible. Projectible schemer.

Max Allison
I got the frame to be a devilish.

John Trupen
Exactly.

Exactly.

Yeah. Toolsy.

Well, gang, we have so much to talk about.

As we mentioned, the draft is moments. We're not moments away. Well, I mean, everything's moments away, but I. More moments than a few, but we are going to. The back half or so of this is going to be largely talking about the draft.

Max obviously has written a number of preview articles and has done some really great stuff that you can go check out on the site, in addition to, obviously the consistent miners coverage that we've got there anyway, but we're going to do some more draft talk. We're going to go through who might be there in the first round for the Mariners, as well as who we might really want, and then we'll also go through maybe in the first five rounds, some other people who might be there a little later.

That either might make a lot of sense based on what, what we're expecting as well as what maybe Max has seen. That would be a particularly good pick in his estimation here. So that's what awaits on the back half there.

But we are going to start with those youths who are already in the system, and it's continuing to be a really great year on the Mariners farm.

A lot of prospects have really had positive seasons, have improved their stock, or at least have certainly not taken. Very few have taken a step back, at least at the top levels.

I wanted to really start Max. So you've been going to everett predominantly for games, and you have gotten to see now Lazaro Montez and Michael Arroyo, who've been relatively recently promoted.

Now they've been there for about two weeks.

What has it been like to see them in person and whether positively or negatively, maybe. Have you seen that you maybe didn't see just watching on video down in Modesto?

Max Allison
Yeah, I mean, it's going to be kind of a no duh right off the bat, but Laz hits the ball really hard.

He.

The numbers right now are not super great, but he's honestly, like, he's. He's been hitting, but like, he's been impacting the ball tremendously. He had like 105 miles an hour pop out last night.

The two nights ago, he got robbed twice. He had 100, another 105 miles an hour line out. And one of the. Honestly, he had one of the best catches I've ever seen, period, made against him. It was an unbelievable catch, and it got basically got robbed for at least a triple, if not a home run.

So I do think it's a little. His numbers are slightly misleading. He has not looked as overmatched as the numbers would suggest.

That said, the bat to ball ability is a little bit. It's starting to kind of show a little bit more than it was against Khalid pitching the whiff and the chase isn't too terrible. There's a little bit, but it's starting to kind of show against a little bit better pitching, which is obviously a concern. But at the same time, that's kind of what he is as a player. Right. He's not going to be, you know, he was never going to be the 14% strikeout rate he was in that first three week stretch of the season in Modesta. Right. That's just not his game.

His contact numbers are just kind of back into a believable range, which is more than fine.

So I think he's been fine. He moves. I know I've been kind of beating this drum a while, but he moves a lot better than he is given credit for.

Kate Prusser
Yes. He suffers the big boy tax.

Max Allison
Yes. Now, I'm not saying, like, he is incredibly raw as a defender. Like, his routes are adventurous, we'll call it, and he'll, like, he'll be, you know, I'm not going to say he's some plus glove in right field, but his arm is still massive. And, like, he is moving in the outfield better than, you know, people are giving him, like, a 40 run speed and, like, 40 glove. Like, he could easily be a serviceable outfielder. He's not going to be, like, a 50 guy, but if you're a 45 glove with decent range, not a crazy range, but a fine range and a huge arm, you can easily play in right field.

That's what I see.

If with some refinement in his, like, actual ability of fielding the ball, he's just incredibly inexperienced, you know, so. And, you know, he's also 19, so he hasn't had a lot of time to get experience.

So, yeah, I mean, he's an athlete. He's not this, you know, chubby guy. Well, I think he's limited. He's not a physical, you know, like, the dude is the most physical dude I've seen in my lifetime. He's unbelievable.

So, yeah, I would like to highlight.

Kate Prusser
About Laz, too, is like, he gets better. You know, like, he sort of has the Julio like ability to go, and he's like, oh, you want me to be faster? All right, I'll go train. Like, he trained himself into being faster than he was. He's trained himself into having better athleticism. He knows where the weaknesses are in his game, and he attacks them and works on them and improves them. And I think, like, his physical ceiling is maybe not as high as Julio. Just because I feel like that's an insane comp to put on anyone but Julio is really one of a kind in that area.

But I think he's closer than a lot of give him credit for. And it's really easy to dismiss him because he's big. Sometimes he looks a little awkward because he is like a child still figuring it out out there, and he just didn't have as much chance to get polished, I think, as some of these other international prospects, like Michael Arroyo, who was playing in really high level competition in his country.

Cuba just doesn't offer those same kinds of opportunities. I'm still super bullish on Laz. I'm glad you're seeing some of those things.

And I would also like to point out his legs are twice the size of Yordan Alvarez's. So this.

Max Allison
They are unbelievably big. They are tree trunks. He is six'six. He has tree trunk legs. Unbelievable.

Kate Prusser
I mean, he's just. There's so much athleticism in there. It's just a question of training it all to go in the same direction. And if you are on, can play Alvara, if you are on, can play outfield. Like, Laz can definitely play a corner outfield.

Max Allison
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Kate Prusser
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Max Allison
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Yeah, I would agree. I guarantee you. Sorry, I just want to say this. I will guarantee you Les will never be a 30ft/second sprint speedrunner like Julio is.

John Trupen
Yeah, yeah. But he just needs to be justifiable in the outfield to hit. As long as he's hitting the way that he is, showing that he has the capacity to. So it's good to hear that that's popping on the screen.

What about for Arroyo?

Max Allison
Yeah, Arroyo. Arroyo's kind of been kind of the opposite. His numbers have shown him just absolutely dominated, frankly. He has been. He let off the game with just a mammoth home run. Like, I saw the video on, on Twitter, and it just did not do it justice at all. Like, yeah, second pitch, just hanging curveball and he just absolutely hammered it like it was pretty tremendous.

He is. He's very funny because he is. He and Laz are usually, like, they do their stretching, usually, like, pretty much right next to each other, and they are so funny to watch just right next to each other.

Kate Prusser
It's, yeah, they're like friends, but.

Max Allison
Yeah, he is. But, yeah, he's incredibly, like, built for his, like, he's very, very strong. Very, you know, he's in tremendous shape.

The hitting has been fantastic. He has had situational hitting. He has done, he's punched singles up the middle in runners in scoring position. He has hit some mammoth homers. He's taken doubles in the gap. The barrel control is exceptional. He is a tremendous, tremendous hitter. The defense, I am more concerned about after seeing him in person, and I don't think it is for lack of physical ability. I actually think his range is pretty good at second base. I think his range is pretty good, but the arm is definitely, like, a concern. Like, he's even watching him taking infield.

There are a lot of throws that will bounce or are just not in the right spot. I think he can do it, but I don't know if it's mechanical. I don't know if it's just mental. But, like, the throws are a bit, they can, they can be a little bit astray fairly often, which is, you know, obviously not great.

Now, I don't see him, and I'm thinking there's no way that guy's arm will ever be good enough. Like, it's not, it's not that. It's just the accuracy right now is not stellar, but the hit tool, frankly, you're gonna play in the big leagues if you can hit, and he absolutely can hit.

I think he's 100% a second baseman, but I think he could be a rangy second baseman. Like, he's got pretty decent range. I know some people are concerned about his foot speed, and, like, he's not a burner by any means, but, like, he's, you know, he's got some pretty decent range.

He can make some, you know, he can get to balls, but, you know, he'll just kind of have, like, weird mental lapses. Like, one of the games I was at, he just kind of missed a ball. Like, he just kind of missed a soft liner. And, you know, I mean, it's just kind of like stuff like that. Like, it's fixable. Like, I don't see it. I'm like, ah, that guy's never gonna be able to do it, but he's not doing it right now. And I would love to see that. So.

Or at least see that all the time, or 95 or 90% of the time, you know, just a little bit more often, so.

But, yeah, he's obviously a tremendous place. Crazy good. So, yeah, that's kind of what I've seen from those two.

John Trupen
I'm wondering, because one of the, like, challenges is always when you have a player who is Arroyo's size and frame, it is, you know, how can they.

You know, how can they manufacture either enough power or enough contacts?

You know, basically, they can they maintain either their athleticism and speed while still actually providing enough power to threaten big league pitching, or do they have to sacrifice that, whether it's mechanically, Orlando, by bulking up physically and therefore risk what has made them successful in sort of the initial lead up? We see that with Ryan Bliss right now. Right.

He is this very maximum effort player. He's really fast.

He has, generally speaking, had good bat to ball ability, but to generate enough power, he has this very big leg kick that, that can create challenges for him, timing up and getting on time for better fastballs, better speed and whatnot.

In the case of Arroyo, I think we're seeing him bulk up a bit more. And there are.

I'm trying to think about players who are round his size who have gone that direction as infielders, because you'll see that with, like, catchers sometimes, but, like, Donovan Solano is like a guy who. Who's sort of that way where it's like, thicker frame. But also, Donovan Solano still was never a power hitter. Right. There's, there's not. There's just not that many players who have. Who have sort of this build. And it doesn't mean it's not possible, but it is, it is. It is a challenge he is going to have to basically continually overcome, especially because he needs to be a really good. He needs to be able to handle one of the more high intensity defensive positions. And if you bulk up, that can hurt your rotational flexibility, which can.

My. My inclination from. From what I have seen from Arroyo is that that may be part of it, is that it is a mechanical thing, because, like you said, like, sometimes he'll whip it, and it's not like, oh, my God, that's JP Crawford. But it is like, okay, yeah, you can, you can, you know, you can throw a ball across the diamond competitively, but that has to be, I think, a mechanical improvement that he makes because otherwise, like you said, you know, he's relying on a really significant amount of hitting that is going to be hard for him to maintain, even as someone who really likes him.

Max Allison
Yeah, especially like as an up the middle athlete, you know, you, to some degree, you have to be there defensively and.

John Trupen
Absolutely.

Max Allison
You know, they, you know, they put tie France at second base because he could hit, but he did not stay at second base because he could not play second base.

John Trupen
Right. And that era also, you know, there was, I mean, tie France, Travis Shaw, Mike Lucas Stakis, what's his face, who was on the Dodgers for a bit. I'm blanking on, but Muncie as well. Yeah, but a lot of second 3rd base combo players who were much more would have been first baseman in many other eras, but because of the shift, they could be placed more, they could be hidden, essentially.

Max Allison
And Arroyo's, Arroyo is a better fielder athlete than those guys.

John Trupen
Oh, yeah, absolutely.

Max Allison
The idea is kind of similar where you can hit, but you also have to be able to be a, at least a reliable fielder. And that's, that's the thing, that's the next step for him because the power has taken a tremendous step forward this year, which is awesome.

John Trupen
Absolutely.

Max Allison
He's incredibly physical for his five foot eight frame.

John Trupen
Absolutely.

Max Allison
Yeah.

John Trupen
I don't want to, I want to get us moving towards the draft because there's a lot to cover there and we've talked more about the miners themselves than we have the draft. But for both of you, just at the moment, is there anyone who has been performing recently that you have seen or even that you just have caught a game or two of that has stood out more recently in your mind that you've been thinking about more on the farm than maybe you have been the rest this year and whether it's for performing particularly well or because you think their performance may have some bearing on what the Mariners do at the trade deadline here, here in the next couple of weeks?

Max Allison
Yeah. I mean, this has no, absolutely zero bearing on the trade deadline, but RJ Schreck has been playing very well.

John Trupen
Sure.

Max Allison
Yeah. I had him on the brain. I got to interview him briefly, and he is a very tremendous dude. I did not realize he had a two degrees in computer science from Duke and Vanderbilt.

He did his masters.

It's a three year master program. But yeah. Anyway, that's just, he's very, very smart. Good dude.

Yeah.

John Trupen
Yeah. And absolutely shredding in.

Max Allison
A nuke last night.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Kate Prusser
I'm excited to read more. I think RJ Shrek is a name that specifically people who go to a lot of Aqua Sox games are excited about. He's one of those players who doesn't get a lot of attention, but if you see him play, you're like, dude, play.

So I'm excited for you to write him up and spread the gospel of RJ Shrek to the world. Max.

Max Allison
Yes, he's a very, very impressive dude.

But, yeah, I mean, I guess maybe more on a macro level.

I mean, no offense to RJ Shrek, but I don't think the Mariners are looking at RJ Shrek and thinking, okay, now we can move some pieces.

Yeah, I mean, I love Aidan Smith as a player. I think he is just so good. Even when he was kind of in that cold streak, I'd watch him and be like, well, he's just missing in zone. Like, he's not chasing.

He's still hitting the ball, and now he's stuck to it and he's right back where he was.

Kate Prusser
That's who I was going to talk about as well.

Max Allison
Yeah, I mean, he's just.

He's everything that Farmello is in my eyes. Like, I don't know why he can't be that. The. In the same ilk of that player, he makes a bunch of loud contact. You know, he's already had Ev's over 114, 115. Like, I know for a fact he's at EV's approaching 115.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
And he makes a lot of contact. He steals a ton of bases, and he is a tremendous outfielder with probably the best arm in the system.

Like, I mean, and he's 19.

Kate Prusser
Is this the part where we get to talk about the fan graphs rankings?

You promised me that we were going to get to talk about those.

Uh, because very, very specifically, the scream I scrump when I looked at these fan graph rankings and saw Aidan Smith at 21 behind Troy Taylor. No offense to Troy Taylor, but, like, behind Taylor Dollard?

Max Allison
Behind, no, Taylor Dollard doesn't even exist anymore.

Kate Prusser
Taylor Dollard has not been seen for imagination.

Behind Teddy McGraw, who hasn't done anything yet. Like, was way high. And, I mean, obviously everyone's entitled to their own things, but I thought it was just of all, there were a few things on that list that made me raise my eyebrows. The Aiden Smith ranking. I was just like, and the knock is that, well, it's hard to evaluate Seattle's prospects because of the offensive environments that they play in, in Modesto and Everett. And so. So you really have to wait for them to get AA before some evaluators are comfortable with saying, like, okay, this is. This is a guy hit. But again, like, if you have the exit velo data. If they are consistently hitting, I don't see why it's hard to say, like, this guy can hit any harder than it is to say that somebody in the Florida State League can hit, you know, like.

John Trupen
Right. I like, like when we, when we watched Cole Young last year hit for an unexpected level of power in Everett, we could say, well, a number of those wouldn't be homers anywhere else. So worse. But that don't, that doesn't make them bad hits. It's just, we're not going to react that wild to that. But you can, like you mentioned, I mean, you know, Michael Royal, for instance, did hit at least one homer that probably wasn't a homer elsewhere, but there also was, like, that, that blast hit the other day where it's like, that's gone everywhere. Lazaro Montez is having hits that are gone everywhere or are, you know, hits everywhere. So back to you, kdon. But, but I completely agree with you.

Kate Prusser
Oh, no, just that. And I don't know if that perception matches the industry perception.

I would say that I bet that there are teams that are calling about Aidan Smith, especially now that they're maybe not calling about Johnny Farmello. I see why Farmello is the more, like, talked about guy, just because, and I've talked about. I talked about this when they were drafted, Aiden Smith, I thought I was, I was looking him up after we drafted him and was like, insane. How is this player here? What? How were they able to get him?

Which is a good old combination of not a strong commitment to a school. Didn't really want to go to college, I think, and didn't play on any of the big, like, travel team, high level baseball. Just, it's not a name that he's not a player that people saw. And again, this is a credit to the work that the Mariner scouts do. They get out, they get to these smaller colleges, like, ample, like Elon, they get to these smaller high schools, they see players who you might not see other places, and they maximize that. It really, the Mariner scouting department I've been super impressed with.

I think that they do a great job both looking for players, spreading their net wide, finding value in unexpected places, and then also creating connections with those players that are meaningful, authentic, and get those players excited about wanting to be a Seattle Mariner. So sorry. That's my little shill for the team, I guess. But it is something that I've noticed enough times now that it's. It's a skill, not an accident, and it's something they deserve credit for. And Aiden Smith might be their biggest steal. I think I said that last year. I think I said that he was or two years ago.

Last year. Last year I think I said that I thought he was going to be the steal of the 2023 draft.

Max Allison
Yeah. And you got. It's crazy that like you can get Aidan Smith in the fourth round and he's arguably like the third biggest deal. Like Logan Evans in the 12th and Brandon Garcia in the 11th.

Kate Prusser
Oh, yeah, Brandon Garcia.

Max Allison
Garcia was the one I was going to talk about on the pitching side.

Kate Prusser
Let's do it.

John Trupen
I want to hear about that. I do want to know.

People would also argue Colt Emerson in the first.

Max Allison
Yeah.

Kate Prusser
Honestly.

Max Allison
Yeah.

Carmelo.

John Trupen
Yeah. Anyway, it was talking about Brandon Garcia. And I do want to just as an entry here, most, almost all of the time that we've spent talking really this entire year about the prospects has been about position players because that's where, that's where it's been merited. But there have been, especially more recently, some very encouraging strides on the pitching end of things. So tell us about Garcia here.

Max Allison
Yeah, I mean, so he's just, he was described to me as a stuff monster by their, the Everett pitching coach.

He, from the left side, he's mid nineties and he throws, he throws like a, it's a cutter sweeper combo. Right. So he's got like a low nineties cutter and then a sweeper in like the mid to low eighties.

And I got, I got that his sweeper is getting 25 inches of sweep.

Like, I mean, that's over 2ft of sweep is pretty ridiculous. Like, you know, and obviously, I don't know if that's all the time. You know, I just, I ask people things and they tell me things. So, you know, that's not me getting it. But like that's an unbelievable marker, especially when you're from the left side in the mid nineties. Like he's throwing, he's just really just coming right at you and saying hit it. And they cannot. So far, I think he, he would be the guy over Logan Evans. I know they moved Logan Evans back in the bullpen, but he makes way more sense in the bullpen. To me.

Kate Prusser
He's a bullpen arm. I think.

Max Allison
I think, I mean, long term, you keep him starting because he's shown no signs of slowing down. And I, you know, if he can start, even be like a five inning guy, you take that all day long.

But like, I was thinking, like, for this year, if they're like, hey, we need a guy.

He would be the guy I would look for he and, like, yeah, Troy Taylor. But I don't know about Troy Taylor yet. I mean, he's obviously good, but I don't know if he's ready for the big leagues.

Kate Prusser
But the knock on Garcia is his command. Right? Like, he's. That's what I've noticed in really improved.

Max Allison
Honestly, like, from watching a couple of his starts, like, early in the season. Yeah. It was like, okay, this is a reliever that they're trying to start. And then I'm not sure exactly when it started, but he just started throwing it, like, over the plate. Just saying, I don't think you can hit this. And frankly, nobody really has.

He's like, I think he gave up more than one run his last start, but that was the first time he gave up more than one run to start since, like, may, which, I mean, is tough to argue with so long term.

I could see maybe he's a leverage guy in the bullpen, but he has been an unbelievable find so far, so I'm very impressed with him.

Kate Prusser
How long has he been in double A?

Max Allison
He's made two starts.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Kate Prusser
So, I mean, now he's giving them. Here it is. Hit it with a more advanced class of hitters. So I think that'll teach you some things. It'll teach him some things.

Max Allison
I mean, his first start, he went five hit lists with eight ks.

That's pretty good.

Kate Prusser
And then he got a little knocked around the next time.

Max Allison
Yeah, it was kind of weird. That was one where his command kind of faded.

Kate Prusser
Faltered.

Max Allison
Yeah, he just didn't really have the. So I chase.

Kate Prusser
I mean, in an ideal world, I would love for him to get a full year of seasoning. And because he's had a pretty abrupt, um, quick, big trip through pro ball so far, I would love to be able to leave him down there. Um, and he is college, but he's. He's through a funky way. Right? Isn't he, like a junior college and.

Max Allison
Then did, like, he went to, like, Quinnipiac or something. However you say Quinn.

Kate Prusser
Yeah. Quinnipac.

John Trupen
Quinnipiac.

Kate Prusser
Quinnipac.

Max Allison
Okay. Yeah, I think he went to that, and then he transferred to a and M. Yeah.

Kate Prusser
So a little bit of, like, a different journey. I wouldn't say he's, like, as polished as a lot of. As some. Some of the guys who they have brought up really quickly, like, when they had Altavilla and they promoted him straight out of double A.

But, man, I'll tell you, that's this game against the Angels last night, which I had to recap, which was a super bummer, the Angels were just raining down fire out of their bullpen because it was literally every leverage arm they had. And like Ben Joyce, Yuck Estevez, of course. But it was Luis Garcia. Like it was.

I was like, ah, I would really, no offense to our guys who've been doing a great job, but it was way more intimidating stuff wise than like Trent Thornton and Colin Snyder, who were all effective until Austin. Both wasn't. But it's a way different quality of stuff. I think Garcia has that quality of nastiness where he could be really tough out there. So love to see that.

John Trupen
I am curious, do you have any other folks that you want to touch on on the the fan graphs list one way or another before we move to the draft, where I think we'll be talking even more about pitching?

Max Allison
Congrats to Brody Hopkins. That's what I have to say.

John Trupen
Yeah, that is.

Max Allison
Yeah, he's good.

Kate Prusser
He's.

John Trupen
If you can get ground balls and you can miss Batsdez, you are more able to deal with walking people. And the Mariners have not had that many guys who are ground ball pitchers because they have prioritized strikeouts and efficiency on walks. And Hopkins is a different type of pitcher than most of the folks they've had for a while.

Kate Prusser
Hopkins has. I think Hopkins is like a sexy pick, so they ranked him at seven, which is why Max was saying congrats because I don't know that any of us personally have him at, in our top ten. He's not my top ten.

He's close to it, but he's not in my top ten just because, again, talk about like, you know, somebody who hasn't had to be under the double a microscope yet. Although I guess if you can get good results in Modesto and Everett, you know, that says something. Hopkins is just, he's a sexy pick because the way the stuff comes out, it looks insane. Like his delivery is ridiculous. And it is, I think, extremely mean, possibly an OSHA violation to have him facing California league hitters.

There are some really, really, if you don't follow this system super, super closely like we all do, I would see how it's easy to see some Brady Hopkins highlights and be like, oh yeah, that's, that is a one. That's the top ten arm in the system. I think that is a stretch.

I would like to say Michael justice for Michael Morales down there at 16. Justice for Michael Morales, who had a good start at. He's now made three starts in double a. He had a good start, he had a rough start, and then two nights ago, I think it was, he had another very solid start. And again, the strikeout numbers are ticking up. The walks are under control. Like, I've been so pleased with what I've seen from him so far.

I don't think he's like a sexy trade pick or anything that anyone other than, like, internal. I know the Mariners are very excited about him. They are excited about Tyler Goff, is that how you say it?

Yes. They're excited about Ashton, Izzy, those are sort of three, because they're still new to developing these high school pitchers things. Right.

And obviously there's the big swing and miss with Sam Carlson when they took him second, not through, I think, any fault of his or the organizations he was, just got real injured.

But those three are three pitchers who I think, like, started out, didn't blow anyone out the gates immediately. Obviously, Walter Ford, you could put in this bucket, too, um, and have all steadily made improvements. I don't know if any so much as Arroyo, but, uh, the other two, Ashton, is. He's been holding it down pretty well, I think, in Modesto. Modesto, right? Yeah. I think he's like a year younger and more encouraging.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Kate Prusser
Yeah. So those are. I don't think those are going to be trade chips for anyone, but, um, if they do wind up finding somebody who wants Emerson Hancock, who, again, I think is a better pitcher than what he's shown, sort of similar to Michael Morales. Hancock is on the upswing. He really is. And it's a. It's a longer developmental path than I think a lot of people saw for him. But I've come away from. I came away from his last start a bigger believer in Emerson Hancock than maybe I have been since he was drafted and had all that promise ahead of him. So that's encouraging.

Not trade pieces, but encouraging.

John Trupen
Yeah.

I think their prospects, their pitching prospects are, a number of them are taking some positive strides, but they are still more in the range of where they were. Maybe in, like, 2017, where it's like there's something to a number of these folks, but there's nothing, none of the pitching prospects outside of maybe Evans look like top 100 guys now.

And Evans, I think, is perfectly encouraging that he is effective as a starter, even though his stuff didn't play up in the bullpen. That's not really a huge indictment. If he is a good starter but not a better reliever. Like, it's a bummer, but it's fine.

But it does make sense, thanks to how many of the position players are so effective and are so encouraging that they will likely be looking at pitching in the draft this year.

So let's talk about the draft. The Mariners do not have any extra picks this year.

Instead, they simply. They're straight up and down.

They did not.

They did not trade for anyone or trade for any extra picks. They did not get an additional pick the way that they did for Julio when he won rookie of the year. And they also did not get any from, like, they did not make the qualifying offer to task Hernandez. So they did not get a pick when he left in free agency.

So straight up and down, the Mariners pick it 15th overall.

Where do we think they're going?

And what does this. Let's start even here, Max.

What does this draft look like?

Max Allison
Okay. Yeah. So this draft is exceptionally weird. Right? So even if you're not super familiar with the MLB draft. Right. Typically.

John Trupen
And real quick, that is also specifically Kate. Right. The terminology that was used by the organization in talking with.

Kate Prusser
Yeah. Scott Hunter called it quote unquote, weird.

John Trupen
Yeah, we like weird. Okay, Max, carry on.

Max Allison
Yeah, so, you know, normally the MLB draft doesn't quite get the acclaim that, say, the NFL draft does. Right. But most NFL fans knew that Kayla Williams is gonna be the number one pick. Right. This year's draft for the MLB. I don't think anybody knows who's going number one, and I think it could be any one of, like, five different players. So that's kind of the precursor, the. The foreshadowing of the rest of the draft. It's going to be very chaotic. I would say it's going to be all over the place. Like, nobody. Nobody has any idea what's going on.

So when you're sitting smack dab in the middle of the first round, you have to basically let the cards fall in front of you.

You can want a guy all you want. You know, you can hope for a guy. If he doesn't get there, he doesn't get there. So I would have to imagine the Mariners have a fairly large board of players that they are, that they would be willing to select.

However, in an ideal world, I think they want to take college pitching, which is, as you were alluding to, you know, kind of what this system may, quote unquote, need, you're obviously never drafting for need of, but they've obviously shown that they can develop college pitching exceptionally well. And there are a couple guys in that kind of bin that fit their general prototypical mold.

John Trupen
So to say, yeah, you don't draft Bernade. I do agree. But you do draft what you think you can make the most of. And it's, I don't know that this quite is the same as need, but, like, at a certain point, you don't. Right now, the Mariners don't exactly have the space to draft a short stop.

Like, that's not totally right. And they will draft shortstops in this draft, but, like, there's not currently the space to develop a full time shortstop in where they would position, you know, where they would initially insert shortstop.

Max Allison
I would say this, if there was an advanced college shortstop that was going to play shortstop, they could probably send him to Everett, Axel Sanchez right there. And, you know, Axel is fine, but they could, they could boot him out if they found a guy. This draft does not have a player like that. There is no college shortstop. Right. That's just not a thing.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
Like, it's even at the very top, like, the guys that are going one, one, they're like, maybe he's a shortstop, but probably not. He's probably a second baseman. Maybe he can play center field, you know, but it's just, that's not a thing.

Kate Prusser
Defensively, this feels like a really weak draft to me. Just like there's a lot of hitters and we've talked a little about, like, the changing college landscape, like, how much offense is up.

I feel like strikeouts are also up because just players are swinging more. They're trying to get these, like, big, gaudy numbers and get drafted, and I don't know if the offensive environment changed or whatever. I know that there's a lot of noise in college stats right now, which again, like, might be pushing them in the prep direction even, but yeah, it feels like there's a real emphasis on offense first in college. And where are my defensive specialists out?

Max Allison
Yeah, unofficially, nothing changed in college baseball, and yet everybody's hitting 30 home runs now. So something definitely changed. Like, the numbers are nothing. They're just not the same as they have been forever.

But, yeah, like this, it's just a weird draft. Like, you've got probably two first baseman going in the top twelve and like, one of them chases 35, 40% of the time. Like, he's an unbelievable player outside of that. But, you know, it's just like, it's a weird draft. You know, they don't, there's not, you're not going to get that guy that's just going to come in and play shortstop or center field. I mean, maybe center field some degree, but like, there's no. Okay, like, let's take an up the middle athlete, and he's going to immediately slot into our, you know, top eight prospects. That's just. That's not this draft. Last year's draft was exceptionally good. This year's draft, not so much.

John Trupen
What then does that mean for the Mariners, who, like you said, have to kind of sit and wait, see how things play out?

But ultimately, there is a top batch of folks, and then they are more liable to end up in that middle tier where really, it could go any number of ways. This is 15th. They're in the same range where they took Logan Gilbert and George Kirkland. You know, this sort of mid tier where certainly plenty of absolutely great players come from. But it's not. It's not.

Kate Prusser
But maybe not in this draft.

John Trupen
Maybe not in this draft. And also just.

They're not getting someone who has been expected to be a superstar for years.

Max Allison
Yeah, definitely not. Yeah. I mean, so, like, every draft, like, when we say it's a bad draft, like, every draft is going to have good players. Like, there's just no way about that. But it's the things that go behind these players.

How long is their track record? You know, how high is their ceiling? How high is their floor? That's kind of just like, this year's draft does not have that. That backing behind a lot of players, players that last year, frankly. Did, you know, a lot of SEC performers last year? This year, it's just kind of a little bit more amorphous. A little bit. A little bit touch and go.

Kate Prusser
Also a lot of really warty prospects. Right? Like, in fact, that's another thing that I believe that Scott Hunter said in his media availability, really sidling right up to that Jerry depot level of, like, should I say this? And I don't think he used the word warts. I forget exactly what it was. I think he meant to say warts, but just saying that, like, there's a pretty. There's a significant ding on almost every play. Outside of, like, that top ten, there's a lot of players who you're like, ugh, you know, you like this guy, but he's a corner outfielder only. You like this guy, but he's got a super steep swing plane that probably needs to be adjusted. You like this guy, but he's five nine. It's like that moneyball. His defect is thing, but you can apply that to, I feel like, an abnormally large number of players in this draft. Does that seem accurate to you, Mac?

Max Allison
Yeah, that's 100%. Right. I mean, there's every player that is going to be drafted the first round. There is a reason they're going in the first round. They have good qualities that teams like.

However, a lot of those guys have something that probably needs to be adjusted or mentally fixed or physically fixed or mechanically fixed or something. Or maybe they do everything well, but they're just a little bit limited athletically.

There's every kind of player outside of the top.

I mean, you could argue between eight and twelve or 13 that there's just a little bit not ideal.

John Trupen
It's not ideal is, I think, a good way of framing it, but the Mariners are going to end up taking somebody here. So who is closest to ideal for you? If you maybe have a few folks that would be at the top of your personal preferences here.

Max Allison
Yeah. So they're kind of in this range where they are close enough to the upper echelon where guys can fall to them. Right.

They're not firmly in, like, the second tier of. There's no chance we get any of these kind of better guys.

John Trupen
Right.

Max Allison
Especially in a draft where, you know, it's just so ambiguous that a lot of teams may be looking to get creative or something. Right. A lot can happen. So I think.

I think Treya Savage is the guy that they absolutely would love. Like, I think they want him. I think they want pitching. And he is clearly the starting pitcher. Three out of college. He's 100% that there's two elite guys at the top. He is third and four north is very distinctly worse, in my opinion.

So I think he is the guy. If he is there at 15, I would put pretty much my life savings if they take him at 15.

I would be stunned if he made it to 15 and they did not take it.

John Trupen
Why is that?

What makes Trey savage that. That worthy of your confidence here? Well, I mean, and I don't mean that as, like, why.

Tell me. Tell me about tray Savage.

Max Allison
No, yeah, I get where. I get where you're coming from.

Yeah. I mean, so he's.

John Trupen
I know, a bookie.

Max Allison
No, yeah, no, I. I mean, like, literally, he is just everything that they could possibly want in the story. He is incredibly physical. Like, he's six'four, he's probably 220 at least. Very physical. He's thrown a ton of innings through college. He's got, the stuff is there. Like, he's incredibly over the top starter. So he gets.

I think it was like he's getting, like, 22 or 23 inches of ride, which is unbelievable. Now, out of a seven foot release is much different. Right. If you're throwing over the top, you're going to naturally get a lot more ride. So that's, you know, when you hear 23, don't think that's infinitely better than, like, Bryce Miller getting, you know, 19 or whatever. He gets. Like, Bryce Miller throws from a much lower arm slot and that's why it plays at the top of the zone. Much better. But, like, still, that is a tremendous amount of ride. I don't know if he's averaging that. I don't know if he's just hitting that. But, like, I have seen in a spreadsheet somewhere where he has hit like, 22, which is a lot, and then he's like mid nineties. He's, you know, he's hit 97, and he added the splitter this year, which I think is honestly his best pitch. It is an unbelievable splitter. It falls out of the sky, literally out of the sky. I mean, he is no joke throwing from almost 7ft in the air, and it's just, you know, up and down attacks you. He's got a nice slider, nice splitter.

Physical. Like, pretty much the one knock I have on him is like, he's probably not like, ace upside. Like, there's not a lot of physical projection left. You know, he's, he's been, he's been ECU's workhorse for two straight years. Yeah, he is absolutely dominated those two years, but that's probably what he's going to be.

John Trupen
Yeah.

You know, that's the type of guy the mariners have chosen in the past. You know, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby. These, these are, I mean, Hancock.

Hancock was a little bit more of a spiky kind of possibility, but no, that, that workhorse, efficient pitcher who probably you want as a number three starter, but if your entire rotations, number three starters, you're going to win a lot of.

Max Allison
Yeah, exactly. And like, you know, he throws a ton of strikes. He's got good command. Like, it really is just, he's, he doesn't have that ace, you know, number one, you know, top of the rotation kind of stuff. Yeah, it's just not, that's not where he's at. And, you know, he's, you know, as I said, he doesn't have a ton of projection left. So, like, you're kind of, you're looking at what you're gonna get, and obviously they're very good at refining pictures and stuff, but, you know, I don't see him coming out after, you know, the mysterious gas camp or whatever they they have, you know, him, oh, he's sitting 100 now, you know, like, he's a, it's going to be, you know, 94, you know, 95 on the fastball and it's going to be fine.

John Trupen
That will be, that would be probably my favorite pick. It's just not, I think that wild to say, the third, the largely believed third best pitcher in the draft.

Pretty solid outcome for the Mariners, picking at the midway point.

Kate Prusser
I don't think it's going to happen, unfortunately.

I don't think there's any way that you, savage, makes it to the Mariners.

Max Allison
So let's talk college pitching always goes earlier than people think.

Kate Prusser
Yeah. And I think, like, especially this year, because you have teams that are up higher in their contention cycles picking earlier.

So they're like, maybe not necessarily like, the Guardians get a very early pick and like, yeah, they're stacked on offense with a young offense. I think that it's very likely they go college pitching and, you know, so that that's a wrinkle that's in the current draft format where you don't have just the worst, poorest, longest arc towards being good again. Teams picking first, necessarily.

John Trupen
Right. I mean, the. Yeah, the Guardians, the Reds, the Royals, the Cardinals, the Pirates, you know, frankly, even the nationals, Tigers, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, all pick ahead of the Mariners all could justify, hey, we want someone we can get up more quickly. Now, not every team's gonna do that, but I think that's a. It is a very good point, Kate, that especially if there's a team who might be up higher and might say, we can probably get you savage for a little bit under slots or, you know, and then spread, you know, go higher upside later.

That is. That does seem plausible, but you never know.

Max Allison
Yeah. And I think at the Mariners slot value, too, I don't think. I think they might even have to go over slot to land because any team after them would almost assuredly take it, so they pretty much have to give him what he wants.

So in a smaller bonus pool, years, a little risky.

John Trupen
What about if your savage is gone? What else are the Mariners looking at? Are there any other people who might fall that, I mean, anyone could fall, but any other people that you see as maybe top ten talents that could be there for the Mariners?

Max Allison
Yeah, I think James Tibbs gets thrown around a lot. I know earlier in the season, he was kind of maybe getting some fringe, top ten vibes.

I don't know where anybody is at, but I just kind of feel I've seen his names kind of trending downward in, you know, kind of mock drafts and stuff like that, you know, and he's a guy where I'm. I kind of go back and forth on, because on one hand, he is like, his bad ball is pretty. Like, it's among the best in the entire country. He's unbelievably good at, you know, results, but I. I worry a little bit about, like, everything else, honestly. Like, he's not. Not a great. Not a tremendous athlete.

You know, he's fine, but not a great runner.

I honestly, I worry a little bit about the lefty. Like left on left. Like, yeah, numbers. His numbers against right handers are, like, unbelievable. Like, it's like he's hitting over 400.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
You know, when you see kind of a drop off as significant as he has, you know, it's not like he's a bad hitter against lefties, but in college, if I'm taking a guy that is a corner outfield exclusive, I want a guy that is 100% going to hit. And, like, you know, I'm pretty sure he's going to hit. Like, I'm pretty sure he's going to hit, but, like, that little inkling of, like, you know, if this guy can't hit lefties, he is a limited defensively platoon corner outfielder.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
And, like, if he does hit, you're getting probably a three, three and a half win corner outfielder that hits left handed. That's awesome. That's really good. But if he doesn't, that's the risk of taking a bat first guy, because they have to bat first. They have to be good. So he's. But he is a tremendous player. Like, I would be very happy if they took him, but again, I don't. I don't know if he'll. He'll fall. He's another.

Kate Prusser
Yeah, the. I think that the baseball America mock draft has him being selected right before the Mariners pick, which would be super frustrating, I'll say. So I read all of your draft write ups, Max, and I'm kind of leaning going high school as a preference just because I feel like the good college players will be gone. And I'd rather have a very good high school player than a okay college one at this point.

But Tibbs was my favorite of all of the college players that you wrote up, and I don't know if it was just made so appealing or just looking at that swing. It. It looks, and the idea, obviously, of having somebody who is just a pure hitter, somebody who's gonna hit is so appealing while looking at this offense.

Max Allison
Yeah. I mean, he's tremendous. I really like Ryan Waltzmut.

That's kind of my guy.

John Trupen
Tell me more. Tell me more.

Max Allison
Well, I mean, Waltzmann is right up there with Tim's, like, metrically. He's. I know, like, a lot of the data guys love him, but I don't think it's. There's a. Like, it's impossible that Waltzman could play center, and that, to me, is a huge boost in the right direction.

John Trupen
Like another outfielder from Kentucky.

Max Allison
Oh, yeah, Kentucky. Yeah. Yeah.

But, you know, again, in that same, you know, ilk with tibs, he is, you know, if. If everything goes wrong, he's a right handed hitting corner outfielder, and that's worse than a left handed hitting, generally.

John Trupen
Yep.

Max Allison
But, yeah, I mean, he's.

Kate Prusser
Well, I love he had a swing. I hate Walt Schmidt. I hate it.

And I don't think it's geared well.

I don't.

I don't think it's geared well for T Mobile park. Like. Like, it's got a ton of loft. It is violent and upwards and, like, I don't know, bellingeresque maybe kind of in that.

Max Allison
Oh, I don't know about that.

Kate Prusser
It's like this.

I hate it. Aesthetically, I hate it. Like, I hate a violent swing. We all know this. I like a single swing. I feel like you're thinking of Benjamin no Waldschmidt.

Max Allison
Walt Schmidt is. Is Ballinger esque.

Kate Prusser
I do not like the swing, and I bucket all the swings that I don't like together in that. Just the violence of it. I don't think it's gonna hold up.

I don't think it's gonna hold up well for a T mobile park. Like, I just think an incredibly lofted swing is not good for that park because they're all gonna turn into, like, shallow flyouts, which means you need, like, potentially a swing change. He's had an uptick in his strikeouts, right, this year. I mean, which all college players have because they've all sold out for power, blah, blah, blah. But I just. He's. He's not my favorite.

I'm not crazy on. Do you say Benjamin binge? Yeah. I'm not crazy about him, either, and I've also heard the Mariners link to him. Yeah. This is starting to tell me that I really want them to take high school pitching it, and they probably won't, so.

Setting myself up for disappointment here.

Max Allison
I think I would be most disappointed if they took high school pitching, which I think is hilarious that we're so, again, and it's not because I think they would get the best player if they took that. Like, you know, you can argue, you can go back and forth, whatever. Like, you know, say they take Ryan Sloan. I know we got a question about him. He's a six five, you know, super physical guy out of Iowa, right hander. He's got two pretty good. He's got a, I like his breaking ball a lot and I haven't seen his change up, but people say it's his best offspeed pitch and people give it like a 60, which is almost unheard of as a high school pitcher having a really good change up.

Yeah, he's super physical. He's, you know, mid nineties already. So I mean, he'd be like a fine, like, he'd be fun, right? Like, I could see him being a very, very good player.

My only thing with that, and I feel like Scott Hunter maybe mentioned this in your, when he talked to you, is if they take high school pitcher first, they're not going to double up on him in the second. Right.

And because, I mean, that's just a tremendous amount of risk. And to me, the deepest part of this draft is high school pitching.

So if you can take a guy that the, you know, say a college pitcher, if the, if the pedigree, if the ability drop off is much sharper in one demographic, I would rather get to that, you know, the top of that point and then take a guy in the second that I think is, you know, by all accounts marginally the same player and just kind of go for that. I mean, that makes the most sense to me, especially like, a guy that they've been linked to a ton as of late, which honestly, Mike Gut says will be the pick, which I don't know how I feel about it, but my gut says it's going to be Gerangelo.

Kate Prusser
No, I don't think so. Really. What, what makes your, what makes your gut think that?

Max Allison
I honestly think it'd be the thing. I don't heard his name so much.

John Trupen
I just don't, he's been in, he's also been in a number of mocks. I think Baseball America had at least one of their mocks with them.

Max Allison
Just in terms of mocks, like, just people I've talked to, like they think Durangelo's very much in the mix. And obviously, I know they want, like they want Trey, but I think they want to go pitching very badly and they're going to have to be moved off of pitching. That is what my gut says.

Kate Prusser
I just feel like, how do you say his last name?

Not even close.

He's just such a.

Such a project that I don't.

Max Allison
Because, you know, he's the not a switch pitcher. I know if they take him, I'm going to hear that, like, a bajillion times. Like, we'll just have him throw with his left hand. Now.

I mean, a left handed pitcher.

Kate Prusser
Yeah, but, like, he.

Max Allison
His numbers as a right hander. Like, right on right. He's essentially, like, he's been unhittable this year. Like, he has, like, a 31, 32% strikeout rate. Like, sub 200 batting average against, like, he's been dominant. Now, I don't know if I love them taking that, but, you know, this pick, their pick is valued at roughly 4.9 million. Right. He's not going to cost 4.9 million.

Kate Prusser
Right.

So then you pay for Kai. For.

Max Allison
Yeah. So you move. You move him off the left hander. You have him right handed. He's undersized, which I think is his biggest knock, but he's got a really good fastball, mid nineties, can touch 99 with good life to it from the right side. And a tremendous athlete. Like, a tremendous, tremendous athlete. Obviously he's a switch pitcher, right?

Not many people can athletically do that.

You take that guy and you say, okay, I think we can get this guy to be a legit pitcher and say you get him for 4 million, whatever it may be. Maybe you could get him down to four. I don't know. This is all conjecture, but you take him and maybe you save a little bit of money. Now, in round two, you can take maybe another college pitcher in a similar ilk of him. You know, maybe it's, I don't know, like Ben Hessett of Alabama. I don't know, just like a guy, right? You know, you could take. Or even you could even if you wanted to, you could take the high school pitcher in the second round, right? You could take Joey Oakey or Chris Levonis, or.

I don't know, they're just throwing names out there, right? But, like, these guys that you could get in the second round if you gave them two and a half million bucks.

That's fringe. Let's, like, comp round a money, right? So you might be netting yourself an extra first round value, so to speak, if you save a little bit of money in the first round. And that's what I would like them to do. I would prefer them to do it on a bat just because I think pitching is inherently volatile.

But, you know, if they. If they take Girangelo.

Like, I don't know if I'm going to be thrilled, but I can see it. Assuming that he does not cost full slot. That's. That is where I'm at. I maybe it's just like my doomer glasses and like, I know they're like they're going to take him because I don't really want them to take him.

I don't. That's probably what it is. I don't know, but I don't like, he would not be a bad pick with the mark that I would really, really hope he would not be a full slot guy because I think if they paid full slot for him, it would be a little like, and again, I'm talking, you know, we have no idea how it's going to break, but how I envision this going down, I would think that there would be other guys that I would prefer to him.

I think he's still going to be a great player, though.

It's just. Yeah, up in the air. I don't know.

John Trupen
Is there anyone that you at this particular spot space strongly want them to avoid that you could see that, you know, that you feel like is in that range because, you know, for the folks we've talked about so far, like you said, you know, there's nitpicks, but many of them, there's. There's reason to think they'll be solid players. Kate, obviously some very strong feelings on some swings, which I love, but I. Max, is there anyone that you are just don't want to bother with that in this, in, you know, getting some first round talk. I know you're.

That maybe is based on other people's perceptions, which is tricky.

Max Allison
Yeah. Honestly, the one guy that I could realistically, like, see them taking and I would be kind of not like, annoyed, but I just kind of like, man, you know, it's Sieber King.

Yeah, yeah. I'm not like, he's right. Like, he's fine. Like, if they took him and be like, I would not be like, calling for Scott Hunter's head. Right. It's just like the kind of the nature of this draft. Like, there's just so many guys that if they took him and realistically they could. It's like, yeah, you know, sort of.

John Trupen
A multi positional guy from Wake forest, good performer, but not necessarily a big frame. Right.

Max Allison
I mean, yeah, I mean, he's six foot, like fairly slender ish. He's wiry. I think is the scout scouting?

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
And, like, the power. Like, I don't I saw somebody saying his power was his, not like, was his big problem. That is not the case at all. Like, he is, he's, he's hit a ball like 118 miles an hour off the bat this year, which is obviously college baseball crazy, environment be damned. Whatever. Not a lot of people can do that. That's very impressive, especially out of a six foot frame.

But I don't know. I mean, he's just, he doesn't scream mariner to me. Right. He's, his biggest knock is he chases a lot and that's kind of hurt his exit velos because he makes a lot of weak contact if he's not getting pitches that he, he should be hitting.

But to me, a Seaver king pick is you're taking a guy that can do a lot of things physically that you like and just kind of hoping it works out. I don't see a super, like, he's, there's, there's very little polish to me.

I heard him talk at the, the combine. He seems like a super, like very, very good dude. Like, I could see him just working his tail off and becoming a super awesome player.

But, like, given the choice with as many good players I think will be on the board, I would rather not deal with a player that feels a bit like hope and pray.

Not hope and pray because he's not that bad, right? Like, he's hit over 300 in the, you know, Acc. Like, he's a good player.

It's just I would.

I'm not that high on him, I guess. I think he's more of a 20 to 25 range than a 15 player. And he's not going to cost. Like, you're not going to save money on CPR.

John Trupen
K I would like.

Kate Prusser
I mean, I've said that I don't love the idea of I'm not going to know how to pronounce his name again, gerangelo, because I feel like if you're that pic, to me, feels like we're adamant about going college pitching and this is like the thing that we're settling on, basically. Like, I don't, I don't want them to draft for a positional need. And if the, and I don't think they will.

And if an arm that they really like doesn't fall to them, I don't think that they will do that. But I would hate for them to sort of do some mental gymnastics to talk a player that I just don't really see a fit for as opposed to going for somebody who is more high upside and on a longer developmental timeline. You know, you've got a great rotation now. You don't.

You can make up a lot of. You can find logan evans and brody hopkins out there, like, don't necessarily need to get that front of the line pitcher. So I think I would be disappointed by college pitching in general, unless by some miracle, you, savage falls to them.

And obviously, I do not like the big swing, high strikeout guys, so.

Max Allison
Yeah. Just to be clear, very much them preferred not to take durangalo, but my gut says they really want to take pitching because they haven't for a long time, and they know that they can absolutely maximize its profile.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
And if you could save a little bit of money in the way, maybe.

Kate Prusser
That'S not a bad. I would not like to see them take Vance Honeycutt, who I was initially kind of high on.

That would be an example of the kind of player I don't want them to take another strikeout prone, elevated strikeouts over the past year.

And on the pitching side, Brody Brecht. I see. I don't. I think that. That.

I think most places don't connect him to the Mariners simply because of his command issues, but, yeah. Not a college pitcher with command issues. No, thank you. Please. That I feel like command issues are just so difficult to fix, and I'd rather take a guy who has good command and less big stuff because that just. It feels relieverish to me, but that just doesn't seem. I've seen his name kicked around in a couple mock drafts, and I just. That doesn't feel like them to me. But I hope it's nothing. There's a lot to hate on in this draft.

John Trupen
I was gonna say it's tricky because it is pretty muddled here, but I do want to touch on one thing that we talked about before the show before we get into maybe some of the later rounds, and that is, Kate, you mentioned not necessarily thinking they'd go for a longer developmental timeline. My goodness. In this first round here, the Mariners are seemingly very much shopping Harry Ford as part of whatever trade package they are trying to put together to improve the big league club right now and particularly improve the lineup with that. If they were to trade Harry Ford, Mariners are essentially saying the Mariners do not have another catcher in the system.

That looks to me.

Maybe you all feel differently. That looks to me like a likely big leaguer, at least short of what's his face in the. In the DSL. Right. Who, like, was a relatively big.

Yeah. Which is like, not.

Max Allison
Yeah. He's like.

John Trupen
He's that is a 17 year old. So, like, which is just to say that is, that immediately makes them one of the worst systems catching wise, which is not a nothing, an insult to the players they have. It's just they don't have notable prospects beyond Ford. That is saying Cal Rawley is going to continue being our catcher, and, frankly, is a vote of confidence in their feeling that they can, that they are going to extend.

Kate Prusser
Love that. Love that.

John Trupen
Right. And I feel similar. You know, there are, there are some pros and cons to that debate, but ultimately, I am, I am in favor of the idea of them extending Ka rally.

Now, this draft, to me, is basically the last chance that they could possibly draft a catcher. And on the typical timeline of catcher development, have that catcher Beveridgesthe ready in any capacity to be a big leaguer by the time Cal rally becomes a free agent.

If they weren't to, if they were not going to extend him.

Is there any catcher in this draft that you could. But even that would be, I want to note on the faster end of things, developmentally, for a catcher and for a high school catcher, forget about it. Is there any catcher in this draft that would make any amount of sense for the Mariners in the first round that that sort of would fit that possible bill if, if that were something that, that they were inclined towards?

Max Allison
Yeah, I mean, absolutely. I mean, there's a, my number one catcher in the draft is Walker Yonick.

He's a smaller school guy out of Sam, Sam Houston State, believe.

Yeah. And he, he, to me, is clearly my favorite catcher in the draft. He's very good defensively, and he's already got a hit tool, which is very, very intriguing to me.

He is the guy that I think has the best chance to fit that timeline.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
Malcolm Moore out of Stanford, he was a big, big time high school guy.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
Went to Stanford and played very well. It's very unorthodox swing, to say the least.

But again, he's another guy that, like, feasibly could fit that timeline. I don't. I like Yannick a lot more than mountain Moore. Like, if they took more in the first round, I would just, I would honestly be just confused.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
It would seem very odd to me, but I.

Apparently, Malcolm Moore was, like, head and shoulders, the best interview, and I know they loved that about Colt Emerson last year.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
So, you know, who knows?

But, yeah, I mean, like, there's some guys in, like, the second round, maybe if you squint and everything goes right.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
You know, but just like, they'd have to take pretty much one of two guys to cover that scenario, and it seems kind of unlikely.

John Trupen
Do you have a feeling strongly about what's his face from?

Max Allison
Well, I feel very strongly against him.

John Trupen
Against Caleb?

Yeah. Okay. That was the only other person that I had seen talked about as like a first round, first two rounds in.

Max Allison
That I don't even have him as a first round player.

John Trupen
Okay.

Max Allison
I think he's too small to shift to first base and I don't think he's a catcher, so I don't know where he goes.

John Trupen
That's. That's fair.

Okay.

I was. I was mainly curious about him because he's obviously, he's a college guy, but he is on the speedier end of things. So if you were looking for the closest thing to Harry Ford, that's him again, except seemingly more likely to need to be in the outfields instead of.

Max Allison
He'S not like, he's not as fast as Harry Ford. Like, Harry Ford is really like, he's actually very fast.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
He is a very much a tweener guy. Like, if they brewers catching lab him, you know, and like make him a great catcher, I'm sure he'll be a fine player. But I'm just. I'm not very in on him.

John Trupen
Okay. That is very helpful.

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Let's talk about these, these later rounds. I mean, not, we're not, we're not going eleven to 20, but, but let's, let's go through the first, let's say five rounds here and we don't need to go too in depth. I'm just looking for some names that people can maybe have in the back of their mind when, if you're, if you're hopefully tuning into the draft or if you're looking at the results here, some names that maybe can, can stand out here. And if you want to just give a few for each, each round that you think the Mariners may be looking at as well as some folks, hopefully there's some overlap, but also some folks that you personally are keen on.

Max Allison
Yeah. And. Right. So obviously, we need to preface this with a lot of how the second, 3rd, 4th rounds are going to go. A lot of it is going to depend on what they do in the first round. If they go and take a guy like you, savage, that costs 4.9, maybe even more money, the type of player they're going to take in the later rounds is going to pretty much be confined to college player that they can get at slot or below.

Now, if they go and take a guy where they save a bunch of money, that kind of gets into the, okay, can we take some high school guys? Can we take some higher upside guys? Can we buy people around?

That's kind of where that comes in.

So a guy that I really like, and I think, I forget which mock it had. I think it might have been Keith laws, but it had Griffin Burkholder.

I really like him. I think he is a super awesome player.

Very similar to Johnny Farmello with just much less of a track record, but yeah, just a ton of tools, good power, really good speed.

Probably gonna, you know, he's gonna be a center fielder. I really like him. He's very raw. Like, he could very easily flam out entirely. But with a second round pick, if I have a chance to land a tremendous, like, high upside player and I can afford him, I'm going to take him. You know, it's second round. I want, you know, take, get one in the bank and then shoot for the boat.

He's one. I really like.

Where they're picking is such an interesting spot in the second round because I have a lot of trouble kind of figuring out who is going to be there.

That said, if they go high school pitching.

I don't think Joey Oakey would get there, but I think they would really like him. He's kind of a really athletic mover. And it's lower, you know, gets downplaying, and it's pretty, you know, pretty good stuff.

I really like Chris Levonis. I think I said him earlier, he's got a super high spin slider, good frame.

Let's think. I mean, there's.

There's. There's a lot of, like, high school arms that I could realistically see them taking in the second round if they go under slot in the first, but, yeah, I mean, that's kind of the second round.

I mean, Aiden May is a college pitcher that I would be very happy if they took in the second round.

He might go later. I mean, it's all conjecture, but Aiden May is really funny. He's out of Oregon State. He's got a nasty sweeper.

He might even be there in the third. I don't know, but, yeah, I feel very comfortable taking him and then kind of getting down the board a little bit into, like, maybe rounds three and four.

I like. Josh Hartle is a name that people might recognize if they watch some college baseball.

He's at Wake Forest.

He last year, not like this season, but the previous season, had a tremendous, tremendous year. And he was getting talked about as a potential first round guy. And he just had a really bad year, which is odd because he's just kind of a stable, steady guy, but, you know, throws a ton of strikes. He's six five. The velo is not crazy. He's like low nineties ish, but he's lefty. He's got some good stuff.

He could be a guy that I could see them liking, I guess. If they go, if they go, if they go pitching in late, like after the second, if they go for their high school shot, like third or fourth round, a guy that lit up the combine was Trey Gregory Alford.

He's out of Colorado somewhere. He throws like 100 already. He's gonna be 17 on draft day.

He could be tremendous clay.

There's another guy, I think his name is Conrad Cason or something like that.

Yeah, Conrad Cason. I think he again throwing up her nineties in high school. There's guys in these first three, four rounds that might be there that just.

There's a lot of clay that they could use. Michael Massey is another wake forest guy.

Six five, huge hammerhead, uh, breaking ball.

Kate Prusser
I remember him when he was a prep prospect. Michael Massey.

Max Allison
Yeah, yeah, he's I would love for them to take him. I think he, he's going to be pretty legit. He's kind of a two pitch guy right now, but the, the two pitches he does have are really, really good.

So I could, I could look out for him.

Um, and then, yeah, kind of like, I don't. If anybody watched the college World Series, Kovara's tears made an unbelievable catch out center field.

He has some stupid pop, you know, can play the outfield.

I like him.

I like Thatcher herd out of LSU.

He was at UCLA and then transferred.

I could see the Mariners taking a shot on him, kind of fixing him, but. Yeah, I know I'm kind of just like rambling off names. Right.

John Trupen
But what I've asked you to do, and you're doing it delightfully. I appreciate it.

Max Allison
In the draft, you know, after, you know, even in this year, after like pick. Even before pick one, nobody has any idea what's going on. So I'm totally guessing, but these are just some names that I generally, yeah. Whether or not they'll be like, I hope nobody hears this. And then goes, oh, my God, they took a Cal Stefan out of, you know, whatever in the second. They could have got him in the fourth. You know, it's like I, you know.

Kate Prusser
It'S all, I would like to throw my hat in the ring if they do go college first money saver, first round. I like PJ Morlando. I don't know that anyone.

He's a high school guy. Yeah. So if they go college, then he would be second round. I think baseball America has him pretty projected to go like in the fifties, and the knocks on him are, he's old, which I always think is such a stupid thing with your high schoolers. Like, I know younger players are preferred, but maybe an older guy has a little bit more quicker assent. Who knows?

The real knock on him is like just defensive limit limitations like we've talked about with so many. This is just a warty, warty war draft. Everyone has a wart. That's his wart, but he is like a really good contact hitter. He has this, the Kate approved swing, the beautiful, you know, everything in control, no violence, like quiet, but just makes a ton of contact. And, you know, not at all the talent that Aiden Smith was, I think, who went, you know, two rounds later, just. Which tells you about how ridiculously stacked that 23 draft was versus this one, but that if they do go college first and then high school second, that's, that's someone who I wouldn't mind seeing in there.

Max Allison
Yeah, I think for Morlando, I'm a little iffy. You're on. Just because of that defense. But he did his spring this year. His season was nothing super great. So that's kind of why he was projected to be a for sure first round guy. And now he's kind of falling.

Kate Prusser
I think you can get him on a little bit of a steal, but I still think the hit tool is very real there.

Max Allison
So, yeah, I don't think it's, you know, obviously, he's a high school guy, so you're gonna have to pay him. And if. But it's like, if you. You believe in the profile, he's hedgesthem. His raw power is ridiculous, I think. I don't know if he won. I don't remember. But I remember watching him. He did the high school home run derby last year, and he hit some out in T Mobile, which is. He hit like nine or something.

Kate Prusser
Oh, yes, please.

Max Allison
Which is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Kate Prusser
Yes, please.

Max Allison
I don't.

But I know he was in the final, but, yeah, I mean, there's. There's a lot of guys.

Kate Prusser
I would also like to say that. So that is one way I'd like them to go.

The opposite way is if they took a high schooler first, who my preference would be. I like William Schmidt.

I think you reach at 15.

Do you think he's a reach at 15?

Max Allison
I mean, it's. Again, it's like, it's really. You just take your guy, right. I think he's the best.

Kate Prusser
Right?

Max Allison
I think he's better than.

Kate Prusser
Here's what I like about William Schmidt is I watched him and I was like, well, that looks like Logan Gilbert pitching like, long levers. Nice extension.

He's got that hammer. Curveball, which I feel like is not always a pitch that translates well to the bigs. I think that that would probably have to be scrapped, maybe just unless it's, like, got elite characteristics. I feel like there are so many prep pitchers who come in and they have this great curveball, and it gets all this results because high school hitters can't hit a curveball.

Max Allison
I believe, just to chime in real quick, Schmidt's curveball, I think, is over 3000.

Kate Prusser
Good God. All right, well, maybe spin a baseball.

Max Allison
Granted, it's also high school ball. Yeah, that's big.

Kate Prusser
I just feel like if you have a feel for spin already, if you can manipulate a baseball like that. I have. I'm very bullish on your ability to be like Logan Gilbert later on and figure out, like, how to spin a pitch, how to make a. How to manipulate a baseball so that it does what you want to do. So I'm high on him, and if they took him.

I like Ryan Prager out of Texas, a and m as a. As a second round choice. Oh, Max hates him. Max hates him.

Max Allison
I I don't hate him, but of. Of all people who, you know, Kate, I feel like you absolutely love not boring.

Kate Prusser
I know.

Max Allison
He's so boring.

Player of all time.

Kate Prusser
He's so boring. Here's what I love about him. I love Texas and a and m pitchers, and that. That Bryce Miller. Love him. Brandon Garcia love him. Like Matt. You have the Max Weiner connection.

Max Allison
Hey, Chris Cortez.

Kate Prusser
Fine. Sure. Okay. Get Chris.

Doesn't he, like, not always throw strikes, though.

Max Allison
He.

I mean, kind of. He, like, as the season went on, he was disgusting. He's like. He's got two firmly 60 grade pitches.

Kate Prusser
I think, but he'll be gone. In my scenario, where we get William Schmidt, who is my favorite, I have decided my new favorite, who used to be James Tibbs. But like I said, I've picked all of my favorites just from reading your draft write ups, and my alliances have shifted, and I'm now a Schmitt head.

John Trupen
I was a tipsy, and you've always been a bit of a. I'm a.

Kate Prusser
Big time Schmidt's creek. Sign me up.

Come on. Think of the headlines we could write you guys. Like, please, once think of the site.

No, he's boring, but he's safe. I like him. I like what they're doing with their pictures at Texas A and M. I just. So those are two directions I would be happy with. If they went high school, then college or college, then high school.

But I like college, then high school is the worst side of that equation.

If I'm picking between the two, I like the high school, then college, and that's.

Max Allison
Yeah, I tend to lean the opposite way, but, you know, honestly, it's just kind of shooting darts. Right.

Kate Prusser
I mean, it's. It's whatever the draft gives you. Right. And I just think because of where they're positioned, like.

And it's a challenge. All I can say, though, is they crushed last year's draft so hard. Like, they crushed it harder than they needed to, really. They were gifted a bunch of picks, and they.

They crushed all of them, I think. And that has set them up to maximizing that in a very good draft and just having the gift of having extra. You know, things really kind of lined up for them, whereas I felt like the Mariners had very bad draft luck before, like, when they had picked five in a draft that had five rounds where everyone did kind of bad, but somehow the Rangers came away with Evan Carter, like, the ills of the 2020 draft. I feel like were fully righted by the 2023 draft, and now I think they can coast a little bit in a year where they don't imagine. We said last year they had to nail that draft, remember, because their farm system was depleted. They had all these picks. We're like, they've got to nail this. And they did, and now they've set themselves up in a way where with this weaker draft class, they can do fine. They can do fine. I don't think anyone is going to come out of this draft, like, having crushed it, unless you were gifted, like, a ton of picks or really good positioning, which, of course, the Mariners weren't, because life isn't fair. But I'm feeling like no matter what happens, I'm not going to be super excited by it, but I'm nothing super stressed about it.

Max Allison
Yeah, I think that's a fairly reasonable spot. Like, they crushed last year so hard. To me, I want them to kind of be like, okay, maybe we can take a little bit wilder swings or just like, yeah, like, like, let's see if we can.

I, like I'm saying early, I think, like, why not? If you. If you show such a high propensity to turn late round guys into something, why not try and, you know, maybe get a little funky at the top and maximize pick value, you know?

Yeah. Or, you know, I think a lot of people, I think a lot of teams probably have the idea of going underslop because, you know, in a draft class where it's just kind of a crapshoot all the way down. Yeah, you want to take as many.

You want to take as many darts as you can and throw it like you want to. You want to throw as many darts as you can. So if you can turn your first round pick into a second and third round pick that are above average for that position, to me, that's pretty appealing.

Whether or not that happens is entirely dependent on what everyone else above them does. So banking on that is kind of foolscold. But, you know, at the same time, you know, man can dream. You know, I would love if somebody, you know, they took a college bad underslaught, like, you know, it just, there's.

John Trupen
Yeah, you can.

Max Allison
You can draw it up however you.

John Trupen
Want, but, well, especially, you know, we've been talking, you know, and you, I think you've emphasized this, that, like, the place where they're, feels to be the most depth or intrigue is in high school, high school arms in particular. Right. You know, that there's a lot of preps. There's certainly in the upper levels, there's, there's plenty of guys. But, you know, even if you go deeper into a lot of this, I mean, there's, there are a bunch of guys. I've gone through some of these lists because I haven't, I'm sorry to say I haven't been out to watch, you know, Mason Brassfield's maverick, you know, like, but I'm, but I'm interested in what I've seen when I've watched clips. So, like, that does feel like where they would be more inclined towards. Even if other teams are trying to do that, it doesn't mean they can't do the same.

And if, because the way that MLB draft works, it's just normally there are players like that who just straight up don't even get drafted and go to college. So if this happens to be a year where maybe more preps get actually drafted and signed and fewer actually make it to campus because more teams up top go lower slots, but then spread that money around, that is a very feasible outcome, I think. Right. And there's not like so much of a cap on that possibility. It just is.

That's part of what makes the MLB draft weird and fun in its own way is you can have, you don't have a variability in teams actually drafting the most talented players or not in the same way in the NFL or in, you know, I mean, in almost any other major sport. So I think that's, I think that's very, very much on the table here.

Is there anyone else that we want, you want to really hit on here, Max?

Because we've been going for a while here and I think we're about ready to wrap any, any other names.

Max Allison
Yeah, I mean, I could probably talk your ear off all day about this. I think we covered the big guys.

I mean, if you like a prep shortstop. I really like Tyler Bell, but I think he'll be gone by the second round. I don't think there's any chance they take one first. So, yeah, I mean, just, I think my general idea of what, what I'm expecting and this, again, could be me turtling, but I think if you feel super strongly about the outcome of tomorrow, barring, like, your savage falling and them getting a crazy, you know, like something abnormal something we're not expecting.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Max Allison
If it pretty much goes how we expect it to go, and you feel very strongly one way or another, I don't really know what to tell you. Right. Like, we just don't. We're not gonna know. There's no surefire bet. But these players are not terrible. You know, we're just gonna have to see him play.

And you can be like, I'm not telling you, don't be excited. I'm going to be excited pretty much, regardless. Whoever they take.

I love the draft, and I love getting new players into the minor leagues, but I would just say, do not go doom and gloom just because they didn't take whoever you wanted them to take, because after the top eight, you could basically take whoever you wanted and 100% justify it till pick 45. You know, it's just that kind of year. So, yeah, I would say if you're watching the draft, enjoy it for what it is and hope for chaos, because it's fun to watch.

John Trupen
Yeah.

Kate Prusser
It's so boring when it goes chalk, which I feel like did last year to some extent.

The mariners are usually the ones in there messing things up. Yeah, the top five, when chalk, it was.

John Trupen
Well, it wasn't even that it was chalk, but it was like, the top five were the top five that, you know, skiing's instead of. Yeah, like, the pirates. People were like, are they gonna do cruise length for ski ins? They went skiing. So then it was Cruz and, you know, like, Jenkins or the. The Tigers went Clark, but then Langford went to the Rangers and Jenkins went to the twins. You know, it just. Yeah, it largely broke the way expected, and that's fine. It's still interesting to see these. These players and envision them, but I think you're right. It's gonna be.

It is going to be a more unpredictable year, and for the Mariners, where they're at going to be like it was last year, where they were later on, and who was available determines much more. It's much less in their hands, which stinks, but is a good way to be because it means you're playing well in the major league level. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to watching tomorrow. I'm looking forward to talking soon and certainly putting together with the two of you the write ups as the draft unfolds, as well as Kate, obviously, we will talk to you here in addition to writing on the site about your experience in the draft room. I know.

Kate Prusser
Very exciting.

John Trupen
Yeah. So thank you all for tuning in, you beautiful prospects, enthusiasts, and hopefully even some of you who maybe are just tuning in to get a little bit of a taste. Obviously, we laid out a real charcuterie board of options, and I'm looking forward to it. To seeing where the mariners bite.

Thank you to Max for going, obviously so in depth as well as having such a, such a breadth of knowledge here.

Thank you to Kate for coming and joining here. Thank you to everyone for listening. Thank you. McDougall bats. Obviously, you can get $20 off using that code.

And until next time, bye.

They Might Be Mariners: 2024 Draft Edition - Meet at the Mitt Podcast

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1: Draft Strategy Overview

2: Prospect Profiles

3: Organizational Philosophy

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