Stirred, Not Shaken - Can The Mariners Hang on to First Place? Meet at the Mitt Podcast

John Troup
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And in the end, what will I become?

John Troup
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John Troup
Hello and welcome. Thank you for meeting us at the Mitt. My name is John Troup, and I am the deputy managing editor, lookout Landing.com, and I am thrilled to have you here at the meet at the Mitt podcast.

I am joined today to talk about the Seattle Mariners. Bye.

Staff writer Zach Mason. Zach, how are things going for you? The Mariners have been as near to you as they get all year, if I'm not mistaken.

Evan James
Only every other year.

John Troup
And and only every other year.

Were you able to get to any games?

Evan James
Yeah, I went to all three actually.

John Troup
That is spectacular, although not necessarily spectacular baseball for the entire.

Evan James
Well, you know, the thing is, like, I feel like sometimes folks like you maybe lose sight of when you only go to, like, a couple of Mariners games a year, whether they are winning or not takes on much less importance.

John Troup
That's a very good point.

Evan James
Cause, like, you get to see and experience the fun things, like the little pre game routine with the pitcher's little line as people walk into the dugout and they've all got their custom high fives, and you get to watch what they're doing to warm up and like maniac, to drawing with the crowd and all that. So, you know, the fact that the baseball was bad for, I don't know, like 20 of the 27 innings over this series was relatively inconsequential. I had a great time. I got to go with Thurs on both Friday and Sunday.

It was great.

John Troup
Yeah.

Was there anyone that most sort of stood out or sort of shifted your perspective on them, seeing them in person this year after presumably only seeing folks really on television?

Evan James
No. I was actually surprised by that. I feel like usually I do have that reaction, but this year, everybody sort of looked like what I thought they were going to look like.

Brian Wood
Brian Wood. No.

Evan James
Well, with pitching, it's just so unless you're sitting behind the plate, it's so hard to have a good sense of what's going on.

I have not seen Logan Gilbert in person before, and so getting to see him go down the mound like that was thrilling.

I was, of course, aware of the kind of extension he gets, but seeing it from the third base side and just seeing, like, literally how far he goes was very cool.

It's also fast.

John Troup
Yeah.

Evan James, our audio engineer, joining us as well.

Evan.

The Mariners are back at last from their lengthy east coast road trip. I would say bruised but not.

Not necessarily devastated.

Brian Wood
Stirred but not shaken, if you will.

John Troup
I like. I like that. Indeed.

Yeah. I mean, you know, coming into this sort of recent stretch here, it. It almost doesn't seem to matter sometimes, like, what the quality of opponent is when the. When you are just going so far and having so much travel. How do you feel prior to versus after this road trip, facing the Orioles, the Yankees, and then finishing with the Nationals?

All outies?

Brian Wood
You know, I've been married on this quite a bit, and I've come to the conclusion that the team played as well as we could have expected them in that road trip, which is to say that I think there was two critical games, one in the Oriole series then, obviously, the middle game in Washington, where had they won those games? We would feel very differently about it. And I believe they have the talent to have won those games, and they were in those games all the way. The offense was uncooperative, which I think is something we all understand. And taking two from the Yankees, honestly, is a pretty big deal. That could have been and felt like a much worse series had they not pulled two games out of that. And I think winning yesterday, Zach, you got to see more Julio home runs than he had the rest of the entire season during that series.

Yeah, good stuff. Um, I think yesterday is definitely the salve for the wound, because that series against Washington was rough. It was very hard to see the offense look that inept. Um, I was reading Luke Arkansas article that came out a couple days ago about the baby is ugly about the offense and about just the state of it. And really what it comes down to is that three and a half runs scored per game is the story of the Mariners so far. And it was a story of the Mariners. That series, when they score four runs, when they score a below average amount of runs for a major league team, they win about 70% to 75% of the time. That is staggering. That is like, I almost don't know how to feel about it because we feel like we are on the cusp of the team being so much better and exploding and winning those games and coming back from a series like this way ahead, and they're not quite there. And we talked a little bit before the pod about how my impression is that it kind of feels like Kansas City stole a little bit of the Mariners thunder in terms of taking a major leap that we didn't really see, and part of that has been Bobby Witt Junior.

And now I'm going to flip this. If you're looking for the Mariners to improve, the first way that happens is with Julio Rodriguez, and you don't win yesterday. If Julio Rodriguez is not a superstar. We won that not only on the grace of his home run, thankfully, and a little extra support there in the 9th inning with the single, but also because he stole a base that wound up being the tying run of the game in the 8th inning. And, like, that was a really, really crucial moment in that game. So I think if you're looking for a spot of optimism after a rough road trip, it's that the Mariners can be what the Royals have been so far. They just need their superstar to kick in. And the rest of the offense, they have a 96 WRC plus as a team that's not that far off of 100. They can hit a little better. Mitch Hanniger can hit better. Mitch Garver can hit better.

I don't know about some of the other players, but, like, you know, this is a start. This is a start.

Evan James
You touched on so many things I want to talk about, Evan.

All right, where do I want to start?

Would it blow your mind to learn that in the month of May, the Mariners have a team WRC over 100?

It's not shocking that blow your mind?

Brian Wood
It's not shocking that blows my mind.

John Troup
It feels like 102.

Evan James
It's 101.

John Troup
Yeah, but it's above average.

Evan James
That's crazy. It doesn't feel like that.

John Troup
It has felt, at least to me, like they've had some games where they just went ham, but it's not been metered out.

Evan James
I mean, that's pretty true for, like, that's just how baseball goes, though, right?

John Troup
That is how baseball goes well.

Evan James
And so here's the other interesting thing. Their fit minus, which is to say, you know, bigger numbers are bad.

113 for the month of May.

John Troup
We took it all, we brought them to our land, an endless night. Amber hot and icy cold, the rage of the earth.

We made this curse, carved it in the blood on our backs. We did not see. We could not, but she did.

Zach Mason
And in the end, what will I become?

John Troup
Senwa saga hellblade two. Play it now with game pass.

Zach Mason
Lucky land casino asking people, what's the weirdest place you've gotten lucky? Lucky in line at the deli, I guess.

John Troup
Aha.

Brian Wood
In my dentist's office more than once, actually.

Zach Mason
Do I have to say? Yes, you do. In the car before my kids PTA meeting. Really? Yes. Excuse me. What's the weirdest place you've gotten lucky?

Evan James
I never win and tell.

Zach Mason
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John Troup
They've had some. I mean, they've what? They had Logan Gilbert's getting lit up game. They've had a few other games where the starter, not too many, where the starter got lit up, and then they've just had the sort of 7th, 7th inning, and 8th inning of, you know, the between when the starter has had to leave and Munoz has had to come in, sort of being a real minefield.

Evan James
Now. That is certainly, like, the worst set of innings for the Mariners. Like, no question about it. The bridging the gap of, like, the end of the starters performance to Munoz has been like the biggest problem, but that alone does not get you to 13% worse than league average. It's been.

It's taken the starters getting blown up somewhat regularly for that to happen. And that's really surprising after the start that this disrotation had. And in particular just, I mean, they replaced Emerson Hancock with Brian Wu, who's been incredible. It's really been just like worse stuff from Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller. And that is about as rock solid of a foursome as you will get in this league. So it's, I feel like it's very against the narrative that the offense has been above average and the pitching has been notably worse than average this month.

John Troup
I've definitely.

I do think that that is correct. It has been a frustrating yo yo because when I've seen critiques, all yoga marriages are frustrating. That's.

Evan James
Dumbest toy.

John Troup
That's true.

Frustrating seesaw.

Evan James
You gotta stop me up like that.

John Troup
The critique that I've often seen leveled at the Mariners rotation is they basically have a bunch of number three and four starters who pitch in a pitcher friendly park, and that they will do really well in Seattle largely, and then be much more fine to good elsewhere.

And I find that to be underselling, particularly with some of the improvements that we've seen from folks like Miller and Gilbert this year.

I think Kirby has not been, has not at least taken a step forward at the very least this year. And I think either the, whatever lingering somewhat, you know, in discomfort is, I would imagine is impactful. Castillo, I think is doing fine, but, you know, is just who he's been.

It is frustrating right now that when they are being aces, the Mariners can win games. When they are being good or, you know, average, above average starters the Mariners are having, they barely ever seem to have an answer for it right now.

Evan James
Well, and that's, what's that?

That is what feels true, I think. But I don't think it actually is true for what has happened over the last month, because the starters have been worse than the relievers.

John Troup
The starters have been worse than the relievers. But I mean, I guess. I think you can't really do the just takeout games game, but they also have let their starter, they let their starters go longer than most teams, and the starters having, I'm considering in my head because I think this is true, but I am.

I try not to just go off of. I think this is true, and I don't have actual numbers to back this up. So I'm gonna say I believe that they, even with Brian Wu being on somewhat of a, you know, pitch count still, that they try to get more out of their starters, and because their pitchers are so efficient and have such low walk rates that they really do try and get.

The purpose is to mitigate the amount of bull bend that they need to use.

Evan James
In the month of May, their starters have pitched the third most innings of any team, so that's fair. But part of that is that they're in this stretch where they are playing 30 games in 31 days, if you count backwards, 30 games in 31 days if you count forwards. In total, it's 43 games in 45 days. That is a tough stretch of the schedule for any team. It doesn't matter who you're facing, and I think the players who feel it the most are the pitchers.

John Troup
Absolutely.

What do you think that they should be doing about it?

Evan James
Well, I don't think they. Well, okay.

Or is there anything them as an organization?

I don't think anything. I think, like, rolling with these five guys is a really, really, really good plan.

I think it's the envy of the league. Honestly, it has not worked out as well as you would hope. But, like, you know, would it be awesome to trade, you know, Alberto Rodriguez for Garrett Cole? Sure, but, like, that's not, you know, whatever. So.

John Troup
No, no, no. Let's actually. Let's sit on this one for a bit.

I'm liking this proposal.

Evan James
That one in the trade value simulator.

John Troup
I can't anymore.

Evan James
Oh, that's right. They paywalled it, which, you know, honestly, an act of service, so that we have to see fewer of those insane.

John Troup
You really have to want it. I'm not a. I'm not an anti paywall person, generically, but I'm not sad about missing a few more of those.

Evan James
No, no, the discourse is better for it.

What should the pitchers be doing about their regression? I think the pitcher who has concerned me the most is George Kirby, and I don't think that's a hot take.

Brian Wood
Absolutely.

Evan James
He looks like the league has adjusted and he has not adjusted back. And I'm not exactly sure what the problem is. I haven't looked at it in depth, but it does seem like they are prepared for him to throw strikes. And when he throws it outside the zone, the pitches aren't tempting.

And that feels like a difficult puzzle to break.

Or you don't break a puzzle. You solve a puzzle.

John Troup
Some people break.

Brian Wood
Depends on how good you are at the puzzle.

John Troup
Right.

Evan James
It depends on how good you are, how frustrated you get. George Kirby's probably broken some puzzles in his day, gotten.

John Troup
You know, Glassonion had a, I think, a take on this.

Evan James
Oh, is that right? Yeah, you're right. Yeah.

Oh, boy. Okay.

It is surprising that this is true about George Kirby, given that his pitches are individually as nasty as they are.

The velocity and movement on those pitches is so good, it is surprising that he can't make them tempting outside of the strike zone.

That's my take about this. What do you think?

Brian Wood
I would say, in addition to that, the thing that's different about him this year compared to the last two years is that when he is getting hit, he is getting crushed. He is giving up line drive, solid contact. Like, if you look at that yankee start, or even the start before, it's like, even when he's getting out, it feels like, and he's pitching well, he's giving up a lot of screaming line drive contact to the gap, and it's just getting picked by Julio. And I'm mystified because I watch a guy who, 70% of the time looks absolutely dominant and looks like everything I expect him to be, and the other 30% of the time is leaving meatballs over the plate that are getting crushed. And he's never really. I wouldn't say he's never done this before, but he is doing it with greater frequency than we have come to expect so far. When you look at a George Kirby season, you see him do 32 starts, you expect maybe four to six of those to be rough. He's kind of already there this year, and so we're way ahead of schedule for him to be throwing clunkers where the Mariners are out of it. And a George Kirby clunker is not the same as a bad pitcher clunker. It's him giving up.

It's him getting into the fifth inning, usually hitting a guy or walking a guy, giving up a ground ball single, and then giving up a home run. Like, that's really what it looks like when George Kirby struggles.

But he hasn't shown an ability, like you said, to adjust to it, to appear to have a new plan that hitters are off balance for.

And he's paying for it. He's paying for it with line drive contact. And I'm. I don't know how to feel about it, because I don't think he's had any real loss of skill or ability, but I do think he.

We might be seeing the ceiling of this particular incarnation of him, and I don't know what else he's got. And we've always talked about how smart he is and how, you know, he's kind of like the genius of the team on the pitching side. He's always going to come up with a new pitch, some kind of a new scheme. So I believe he will make adjustments. But it might be hard to do that in season this year when there's so much pressure on him to perform.

I don't know. What do you think, John?

John Troup
I think that the, the point on him not getting quite as many chases is the core of this. It is, and that is specifically, ultimately about his slider.

He has like five or honestly, maybe even six pitches. But realistically, the pitches that matter for him are his fastballs or, you know, the force team and the sinker, which both are, as far as I can tell, pretty much on par with last year. Fastball is like half a tick down right now, but also that often can.

Evan James
That's normal fluctuation. That's not like.

John Troup
Yeah, exactly. And he's got the splitter, the split change, which continues to be effective, although I think, honestly has not been quite as consistently well located. I think he's been leaving it just a little bit higher on occasion this year.

And then he's got the slider. He also has a knuckle curve, but he's throwing that less this year. And the slider has always been, not always, but as a pro, as a big leaguer, the slider has been his out pitch. It has been the pitch that gets the most swinging misses. It is especially the one that he gets swing and misses against right into hitters. So the majority of hitters, that pitch has not been as effective this year. And that is a huge issue. He's been throwing it and leaving it more in the zone.

That's, I mean, as much as anything, I think that is the issue is he last year basically painted the outside edge and just off it, and this year it's been, he's on the inside edge and in a little bit over the middle of the play more, you're just going to be hit more. And, you know, he's getting a little bit of a, less of a chase. He's getting a little bit harder contact, but not so dramatically, you know, and it's a small. Excuse me. It's a small enough sample that it's not outrageous to think, well, this could balance out eventually, but because he's been up in the zone more with a lot of his pitches, he is not getting ground balls and he's not getting swings and misses. And either that's an intentional effort to try and zag a little bit that's not working, or he is missing his spots more than we're used to. And for George Kirby, even with the great stuff, him missing spots doesn't look like he's giving up a ton of walks, but it does look like he is just not as effective where he's pitching because it's easy to not, it's not that hard to not walk people, but it is really hard to not watch people.

Evan James
Wow.

John Troup
And perfect.

Well, I mean, for, for many pitchers, they struggle, but it's because they're trying to actually throw. Yeah. Effective pitches. And George Kirby, what has always made him extraordinary is that he can walk as many people. You know, he can walk people at what's Carlos Silva rates and strike people out at league average rates or close to it, whereas Carlos Silva was striking out, you know, three per night.

Brian Wood
That is a deep cut, John, do people remember that the Mariners signed Carlos Silva after a season, which.

Evan James
Oh, yeah, because it was the biggest free agent contract until canoe, right. Or.

Brian Wood
Yeah, I believe so.

John Troup
Right? Yes, I believe it was.

And, yeah, you know, like that's, that's sort of what has made Kirby stand out, and it's, it's not happening right now. I do think it's, it's adjustable, but I, I worry that him leaving pitches up consistently is either something about his knee or, you know, if it's, if it's just a strategy they're trying to employ that's not working, that's fine. If it's just he's slightly mechanically off and he can fix it, that's great. If it's, he's doing something to try and alleviate a little bit of pressure off his knee again and again and again.

That's a mechanical challenge. Right. We've seen that with tie France. We've seen that. You know, I mean, there's innumerable players where it's like you don't have a major injury, but you are slightly compensating for something and it deteriorates other things elsewhere.

Evan James
What concerns me the most is sort of the medium ish term outlook on this, because if you'd asked me before the season which pitcher has the most margin for error, I would have said George Kirby.

Because if you can get swings and misses in the zone, if you can be getting weak contact, if you have that sort of command and that sort of stuff, like, you wouldn't think these, like, little marginal things would add up to, like, very serious regression, but it really has. And that makes me worry that it's not just one little thing, you know, because I would have thought he would be able to withstand one little thing better than he has.

John Troup
I guess. I will also say of qualified pitchers, of which there are 82, he has, I believe, one of the highest.

Yeah, he has the 13th highest or 13th lowest strand rate, which is neither here nor there. Other than that, you know, he's basically five between five to 10% below average and strand rate, there's some things people can do to affect that, but by and large, like, it's not even like.

Evan James
Yeah. It's like, strand rate is true luck.

John Troup
Yeah, exactly. Like, like, you know, shote minaga, amazing. I really good pitcher.

93.8% of the time when a runner gets on base, they have not scored. He's a wizard, which is wizardry. Ronel Blanco, you know, very cool story. Got busted for cheating, like, two weeks ago with the Astros.

92.4% strand rate. These are not things that really carry over one way or the other.

Certainly, you could, you know, like, there's, you know, impacts of it, of, like, the defense, you know, whatever. But, like, by and large, you know, last year, George Kirby was perfectly fine in this area. You know, he was straining 75% of people. This year, he's stranding 68, the year before that, 75, like, right on league average.

That just means that's why you, that's how you end up with a near run, near a whole run difference between your era and your fit. And that's why people project regression for many, many players. So that's. That's why I do agree with your point, Sam, of, I do think he is or should be more resistant to these vacillations, and I still think there's some swing, swing back that we will see in a positive direction for him, assuming he continues pitching and continues being healthy regardless of any other changes.

Evan James
Yeah.

Brian Wood
With George Kirby, too, is that the era is ghastly, but the, the ex fip is pretty much fine. He actually ranks 36 or 30, excuse me, 33rd by exfip in the entire league, like, two spots behind Luis Castillo at 31. That's not a five alarm fire. That's just not as good as we've come to expect. So if you're looking for the upshot, like Zach said in the kind of the short to medium term, if this is him at his worst, him, you know, like, legitimately injured with the knee, then this is pretty good.

Obviously, it's not the preferred outcome but, like, we have to kind of keep. We have to understand everything in context, and this is not that dire. Right.

John Troup
Yeah, I think there was, there was hope of him moving towards, like, a cy young level season, and we're just not going to get that this year. But I'm not thrown off, Sam. I've cut. We've cut you off a couple times. I want to hear what you.

Evan James
Oh, no, I agree with everything you're saying. It's fine.

I think with all of the pitchers, we were just sort of hoping for a little bit more than they've done, but.

And it's.

We've been focusing on it in this podcast because it's like, interesting and sort of counter narrative that that has been where they've been struggling the most. But I do think, like the, you know, the mariners problems begin and end with the offense, and that I. I don't want listeners to come away from this conversation thinking we are like, yeah.

John Troup
You know, shading over just for the sake of it. Yeah.

Brian Wood
I was trying to put this in terms of, like, a colloquial metaphor, and I would say if the Mariners have 99 problems, at least 95 of those are offensive related, and then we can generously talk about four of them being in the bullpen.

Evan James
Yeah, well, so you mentioned Julio in your. In your lead up. That was another thing I wanted to talk about. Go for it, Evan. So he had the two home runs and he had the stolen base, and that is all terrific. I just wanted to go over each of his plate appearances over this series just very briefly. All right. So he had 13 plate appearances, starting with the first.

103 miles an hour in the air, caught, 2nd. 96 miles an hour in the air, caught 3rd. 92 miles an hour in the air, caught.

Weak. Ground ball, third base, first out, strikeout. Swinging, number 6107. In the air. Home run number, 8100 miles an hour. Ground ball, out, number, 994 miles an hour in the air, caught.

Number ten, 109 in the air, home run, 1170. In the air, caught. Twelve, 108. Ground ball, single.

Brian Wood
13.

Evan James
107 in the air, single. So that's 13 plate appearances, one strikeout, three ground balls, two of which were at least 100 miles an hour, and nine balls in the air. Nine of the 13 plate appearances resulted in a ball in the air. Seven of those nine were at least 92 miles an hour. That is one series with not the best pitching, but that's the kind of thing you want to see. And it is specifically, I think, the thing we have been most concerned about with Julio. Both of the home runs were on inside fastballs. I mean, there is just so much to be encouraged from Julio this series, even though he only had the four hits.

John Troup
Elevating the ball in the air to the pole side.

Evan James
Yes.

John Troup
Just beautiful, beautiful, beautiful. I'm so glad you put this, talked about this in, because, like, even those flyouts are encouraging. That's where you want. If you're missing, you want to be missing with something that is almost a home run, rather than missing with a chopped, you know, a chopped ground ball. Yes, I understand Julio can beat out some chopped ground balls, and he's still going to do that. But so, you know, the difference in what makes Julio, you know, Julio versus Austin Jackson is that he can hit for damage. That he can. That he can lift the ball and consistently do damage. He can do it the opposite way sometimes. He had the. The, you know, the first single, RBI single yesterday was just a great. Like, he hit a laser ground ball right up the middle. Fabulous. You know, good job, Julio. The homer was delectable. He didn't even really crush it. He just. He, like, sort of got short armed on it, but he was able to turn on the ball and still elevate it. And then the last one was, oh, this pitch is outside. I'm going to drive it on a line.

You know, the other way. Like, that is that one game was everything that we. That makes Julio.

That is why you don't give up on Julio, why you assume that it's going to turn around for Julio.

Evan James
Yeah. Yeah. I don't want to go through every plate appearance over this road trip, but it was. It was a ten game road trip.

You know, some good pitchers, some bad pitchers. One extreme pitchers park one extreme hitters park one neutral. Park 43 plate appearances. More than half the balls he put in play were in the air.

That's. I mean, it feels like that is a big enough sample size to feel like when he has specifically been working on this thing and this thing has been resulting, I feel like I need less of a sample size to feel confident that that is an actual change being made.

And, you know, tonight will be interesting because they're. They're going to face framr. Valdez, who is perhaps the most extreme ground ball pitcher in the. In the game. It took the Mariners 200 tries to finally hit a home run against him, even though half of those came with the juice boxes in play.

John Troup
And bless you, demo. It was demo.

Evan James
It was indeed demo. Yeah. So I am. I think that'll be interesting if he can get some balls in the air against Franberg tonight, I will feel really, really good about where he's at.

Zach Mason
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John Troup
Aha.

Brian Wood
In my dentist's office more than once, actually.

Zach Mason
Do I have to say? Yes, you do. In the car before my kids PTA meeting. Really? Yes. Excuse me. What's the weirdest place you've gotten lucky?

Evan James
I never win and tell.

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John Troup
That is absolutely encouraging. I, you know, for everything. And, you know, we said it's not revolutionary, but the entire scope of the offensive numbers can be entirely the same. Except Julio hitting like he did last year or like he did as a rookie or better.

And none of it else like that is win after win after win, better. Also, not for nothing, his hits yesterday, key moments with, with two strikes, at least one of his hits was with two strikes, maybe multiple, but I, at least one of them was. I think the last single actually was a zero two. And he still, like, you know, was able to get it. Like, these are the things that it's like, yes, he is very, very good at making these adjustments, and that's why people have believed in him for, for so, so long.

And I can't remember where we're talking about, but, I mean, even some of the, some of the other hits in that game, some of the things on this road trip that we saw were the mariners actually punishing huge mistakes. Right. You know, like, Patrick Corbin is a.

Just a large, just a human bundle of mistakes at this, at this stage of his career and has been for several years.

And, you know, you aren't going to be successful as an offense, if you don't punish mistakes. Tie France got like one of the biggest cookies you'll. You'll ever get. Crushed it. They haven't been doing that most of this year, and that's how they've ended up in such a hole.

And striking out so much is not even that they're chasing so much more. Cause they're not chasing so egregiously more than other teams. It's that they're not crushing the pitches they do get, and then they end up with two strikes every time.

Brian Wood
On. On that note, I want to tie this in because mentioned that if Julio hits, the rest of the team can be whatever, and we are going to win more anyway. But in terms of the Mariners struggling with getting their pitches and hitting them, there is one particular culprit, and it's relevant today because he may be going on the injured list, and that's Jorge Polanco. And of all the Mariners hitters who are really struggling, be that Mitch Hannaker, Mitch Garver, you know, and in this case, Cal Rawley. But Polanco is the one guy where his performance on fastballs this season are notably off his numbers from last year and from his, you know, historically, what we would expect from him. I was asking you guys before the pod, and I'll ask it again now.

Given that he's going on the injured list and given what we've seen from him so far, and given that the numbers underneath the surface are so ugly with him, do we think he's lost his starting spot in this team as it currently stands? Because they've already made other moves they talked quite a bit about at the 40 40 game mark of the season, making actual changes to the offense. They did some of that in demoting Luis Aurias. They've given Josh Rojas and demo more starting time to varying degrees. And could another piece of that be Jorge Polanco isn't a starter on this team anymore?

Evan James
I mean, I think it'll take more than we've seen to make him not a starter.

I do think his strikeout rate has been climbing over the last few years, and his bat speed looks not great, but we don't have the data to show whether that is a change from the past. But it would not be surprising, given his age, if his bat speed has slowed down and that was the result that was causing the increased strikeouts, which would make you feel really not good about the prospects going forward. And whenever talking about Jorge Colonco lately, I've been trying to return to the fact of like, think about what he was available for. Like, we viewed that trade as like a major steal, and that is an indicator that, like, the rest of the league thought that was fair market value for Jorge Blanco despite his pretty team friendly deal. So that is another sign. Like, the people most in the know were a little bit down on him.

I don't know that losing his starting spot is in the offing, but I do think that if this is like a short IL stint or not an IL stint, but when he comes back, I think he's going to play less without, like, not being a starter. Like, they will just give him more days off. He'll play like five days a week, four days a week.

He's not going to be, like a benchmat just based on what's happened so far. But it does, again return to something that we talked about a lot over the offseason, about what we liked better about this roster construction than the recent years is the optionality. The number of players that you need to go right is smaller because if Jorge Blanco isn't working out, like Demo and Josh Rojas have been, there were just a lot more options in play in the, in, like, the bottom half of the lineup to work out and for it to be fine. And that's sort of what's happened. So I don't. I'm not that I'm concerned about Jorge Blanco. I think the team would be better if Jorge Blanco was playing like the Jorge Blanco of old. But the fact that he's not working out concerns me less because Demo and Josh Rojas are, and that is the plan, is that, like, some of them were going to work out. And I think the reason that the offense has been so bad is really because, like, that only all works if Julio Cal and JP are playing like Julio Cal and JP. And so far only Cal is playing like Cal. That, I think is like, the real crux of the issue. I know that was a bit of a tangent, but I just, with Jorge Polanco being struggling, that is one of the things that comes to mind is that the team was built for that to be a possible outcome and for it to be okay.

John Troup
I agree.

I think we.

I think the idea of benching Polanco, I would be astonished.

I would be astonished. I also don't think it would be the right call, especially if they place him on the IL and he is actually given the time to, you know, build back up here. I like Jorge Polanco a lot. A big challenge for Jorge Blanco has been that he has missed time.

He's played over 150 games twice in his career.

Obviously in 2020 that wasn't possible. And he was healthy that whole season there, so I can't necessarily knock him for that. But he played 80 games last year. He played 104 the year before.

And then in 2017 and 2018, you know, he was a part time.

He was only able to play part time.

Polanco has a much longer track record of being a good hitter than Josh Rojas does, than Dylan Moore does, than Luis Aureus does.

And Josh Rojas, who I quite enjoy and GLAAD is, you know, getting more opportunity hit had in May, has had the same WRC, plus that Jorge Polanco has had this season, which is 78.

He is fundamentally, there is a reason Josh Rojas has not been a full time player against left handed pitching. And, you know, Joshua Hoss has pretty much explicitly said what his strategy is, which is I am going to try and attack the first pitch or I am going to try and hit, you know, the first or second pitch as hard as I can. And it's a very solid strategy and a lot of hitters can do that for a while and then get adjusted to.

And I just, I guess fundamentally, I think when Jorge Blanco, if he goes on the IL here, he will absolutely have a spot when he comes back. Rias already being demoted, I think is indicative of them, you know, saying, all right, Dylan Moore is playing very, very well. He is doing everything we could ask of him and he is a better defender at least, or at least a consistent defender in the way that Urius has, I think, shown aspects of good defense and aspects of interesting.

So that, that, I think is ultimately where I would still really expect if Polanco goes on the ten day Il, he comes back in, you know, two weeks or so and everything's about the same.

You have Rojas and Moore and Polanco all kind of rotating through playtime. You also have the option to play Mitch Hanniger a little less and continue getting him some rest. You also have plenty of opportunity to continue playing the platoon game with Canzone. And I just, I think they will, and I think they should ultimately trust the track record of Polanco for years and years of being an above average hitter over this stretch of subpar play that, you know, is very frustrating. But he is not at a stage where I think he should be just categorically sort of over the hill physically. And I don't think we're seeing him be fundamentally over the hill, at least not yet. He's still an above average runner. He's still doing plenty of things well, but he's just not making contact at the plate. So I don't know what it is that's going on with him. I'm hoping some Il time will help there, but ultimately, I think that you still are better off trusting him to turn around. I don't think he's at a Colton Wong stage, I guess.

Evan James
Oh, yeah, which.

John Troup
Which not. Not just literally Colton Wong stage, but also, like, this is where Colton Wong lost his job roughly in the season, right where he went on the Il and just, you know, it was. There was. He had lost his role. He got hurt. You know, it was. It was toast.

Evan James
So am I correct in interpreting what you've said here as roughly agreeing with me that he will continue to basically be the starter but might get, like, a few more days off than he has been getting?

John Troup
Yes, I do agree with that.

Evan James
I think that'll keep him fresh, too, especially, you know, he's. It's a tender body, clearly.

Brian Wood
So, yeah, I think that all of that is very wise advice for the Mariners. I really do. I think that is the way that they should operate. I have some kind of an inclination, a little inkling, if you will, that he is more expendable than we think.

It comes down to a couple of factors. One is that Hanniger and Garver are both here next year. You have more incentive for them to be playing better this year because they're going to be here going forward than you do for Polanco. Polanco is on a. Polanco can be cut this season, and that can be it. And they can move on from him, and it's a. It's a clean getaway. They don't have that option with the other players who are struggling. And if they all continue to struggle, I think the scenario that I've built up is that none of these guys figure it out. And we're here a month from now talking about Garver, Hanegar, and Polanco looking like they all might be finished. Still, he's the easy guy to cut on that totem pole. The difference this year is that his performance on fastballs are way down. He has made his bread and butter as a hitter over his entire career. Being a fastball centric hitter, having an above average, way above average results on fastballs, and he is very far off that margin this season. When we talk about guys being over the hill, kind of a red flag, right? Like, you know, we don't want to feel that way but, like, it. It looks bad, and it looks bad in a way that Mitch Hanegar and Mitch Garver don't. Even though their numbers are equally hideous on the surface, I do think you could see Polanco being the one guy that they move on from. I would agree with you that I don't think. I don't think there's a better option anywhere. You know, if Dylan Moore is playing great and Joshua is playing great, fine.

But, like, long term, I think it's kind of a wash getting rid of Polanco and moving any of those plate appearances around.

The only way I think it makes sense is if you are bringing somebody in from outside the organization to maybe take that spot and doing a clear upgrade, which is a different discussion entirely. But I think if there is a low person on the totem pole right now based on a combination of performance, health and contract factors, it's clearly Polanco.

John Troup
Yeah, I think that the contract angle is interesting. I mean, they have the club option for him for next year that they could choose to decline.

He is also significantly younger than Hannaker or Garver. And I. I would honestly, while I agree that, you know, they're paying Hannaker for next year regardless. Well, technically, Hannah could opt out, but he wouldn't or shouldn't, especially if he's, you know, performing. You know, he would need to have a hell of a rest of the year to make it reasonable for him to opt out. I guess we'd love to see. Any case, I would love for Methanegar to make it reasonable for him to opt out.

I assume, and I love Mitch, that they have figured that they would not be getting much from Mitch Hannaker. Certainly next year.

I think that that is cost that they are already willing to eat.

And even this year, I think they are hoping for bounce back. And I still think there's reason to think that can happen. But, you know, he was a part of a salary dump return, and it was, you know, there was a reason that the giants were also ready and willing to move on with him. Much like, you know, you, you said about Polanco, Sam. I think that is particularly true of Hannaker, who is later into his thirties.

And, you know, so I guess just in terms of cultural resonance, certainly Hannigar has a significant impact there. And, you know, Polanco is obviously popular and important in how he engages with the other players there, but I could more easily see them cutting bait with Mitch than I could with Polanco.

Brian Wood
That's actually kind of a wild take in my opinion, but I agree with John.

Evan James
I think if anything, like, they would pick up Blanco's option and trade him because Blanco sort of looks roughly like this for a full season.

I think given his track record and his age, he still gets better than one year, $12 million on the open market.

Like, I just think that's, like, that's what a pillow deal looks like. And it's like, already locked in. And if there's upside, there's upside. Hanniger, I think they viewed as dead money, which is why they traded dead money for him.

The dead money of Mitch Hanniger fits better on this roster than the dead money of Robbie Ray did. And so it was a wise thing to do, but they were trading from a sunk cost already, so I just don't see as much hesitation. There is the issue of his stature within the fandom that they would have to deal with as a pr problem. But I don't think this front office has let a lot of pr problems stop them from doing what they want to do in any number of facets of life.

John Troup
And for Polanco, you know, it's been, whatever, eight, nine months since he was a good player. It's been almost like two to three years since Hannah was a good man.

And I really want him to turn it around.

And also the best case of him turning it around, like, we've seen him in the outfield. He is.

Evan James
He's done out there.

The bat might not be done, but.

John Troup
The bat might not be done and, but, like, he, he just is not covering range. His arm still strong. But yeah, this, this is, this is Nelson Cruz. Late Laker Nelson Cruz territory with the same concerns health wise as Nelson Cruz.

And I don't, you know, I don't know. Just roster wise, I guess the other reason why I think that they would move on more quickly is they have more people immediately of potential quality to replace Hanegar or to fill in for Hanniger. There are these people they believe are quality, you know, with Rayleigh and Canzone then, and, you know, cycling demo in out there, then I think they do at least yet in the middle infield, the system larger, you know, long longer down the road, has a lot of middle infield talent. The top right now on the 40 minutes roster, outfield is still where there are more compelling players.

Do you.

Brian Wood
That makes me so sad.

John Troup
It makes me really sad.

Evan James
Oh, yeah.

John Troup
Like, really, really, really sad. But, like, I.

It's so.

Brian Wood
It's okay. He might be done. It's okay.

John Troup
So hard.

Brian Wood
He's old. He might be done.

John Troup
I just, you know, I feel as though they're trying their best to put him in positions to succeed and, you know, like, he's. He's still hitting the ball reasonably hard some, you know, some of the time. Like, obviously that ball that, that just went through the wickets on Nick Sanzel the other day or yesterday was, you know, probably should have been a double play, but, like, you know, he hit it really hard. It just, you know, it.

He o late it, but, like, you know, that that 3ft to the right or 3ft to the left is a normal double, but, like, and he had.

Brian Wood
A line drive that was caught fern out in, I think, the 8th inning yesterday, too, that should have also been a hit. So, like, you know, give some take.

John Troup
They're putting him in the best possible scenarios to be successful, which is they're playing him against lefties who he has historically clobbered, and they're, they're really, I think, fading him more overall, and I think they'll continue to do that. I think, you know, canzone not really tearing it up since coming back from the il, I don't have a strong sense of that. That's, I think just, you know, it's. It's been a few weeks of, you know, whatever, but that is the role I think he is most ideal in is bench bat, you, platoon, weak side platoon. He pinch hits. I think he could be successful in that role.

Is this a roster that can afford to have that player and full time DH Mitch Garber?

If Mitch Garvey from full time age, Mitch Garver is hitting and Mitch Hanniger is hitting when he's doing, you know, when he's playing in his prime role. Yes, because they have so much versatility in their, in their lineup and because, you know, you can play class a anywhere in the outfield at any time, you can play more anywhere in the infields and outfield.

But, man, I mean, it's, it's, it does ask a lot, and especially now that Hagerty is done for the year, you know, they are shorter on that utility front, obviously. Rojas has been, you know, welcome, welcome. Second baseman. Here's your left field glove, you know, but it's just, it, you just get tight on roster spots, and that's why I think Polanco especially because he can play two positions and not particularly well either, but he can, and they're more. They're more pertinent positions. I think he'll get longer leash.

Evan James
You know, the Mariners like offensive roster at the moment looks so much like a collection of hitters that Jerry Depot would trade for at the deadline. Like, it's just.

Brian Wood
It's the Jake lamb team.

John Troup
You've reached over across the lake, multiple lakes. I don't remember where you stand vis a vis lake Sammamish, but I just. An arrow shot through my window just right in the back. Evan, how dare you?

Brian Wood
People were really excited because he had had like a good week before we traded for him or something.

John Troup
Local guy. I was not excited, but I was, you know, curious.

Brian Wood
This is, this is, is he cooked? Is he not cooked? He's cooked.

Evan James
These are all the Cameron Mabens and yonder Alonso's and Jake land Yonder's Alonso team of it.

So funny to me. Like, he just. Jerry did all the work already. I bet he doesn't even make a move because they're all just already here.

John Troup
Yeah.

Our big deadline move is just looking, just closing our eyes and then opening them again.

Our big deadline move is the loss of object permanence.

Brian Wood
Our big deadline move is Greg Santos. Clearly that's the way this is going to work.

We're days away from hearing that, so prepare yourselves. But while we're on this topic of the Mariners and the deadline, we wanted to talk a little bit about the minor leagues, how well they're doing and who might or might not get traded. I speculated a couple of weeks ago on Twitter that I think there are only two mariner prospects who are entirely off limits, and that's felony and Celestine. Excuse me if I'm mispronouncing Colt Emerson, awesome. Felny and Celestine and Colt Emerson, I think, are the only two that I don't think the mariners have any indication of trading, any inclination to do so.

But I think it is controversial that I would put locklear, Ford and even potentially young on the block for the right piece for this team. And that is.

That's for a Luis Castillo style piece. That is not for a Jake Lamb style piece or a yonder Alonzo style replacement to Zebbie Savalah. That's for somebody who is going to be in the lineup every day. But, I mean, you guys, I'll pitch it to you guys. You can talk about the miners if you want. You can talk about the trade off, whatever you're feeling.

John Troup
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Evan James
The prospect I find most interesting for this conversation is Harry Ford, because he's been so good this year after years of being as good as you would expect him to be.

You know, like pretty solid, definitely above average, like worthy of inclusion on top hundred lists.

But this year he's just been, like, just tearing the COVID off the ball. It's been incredible.

And he also plays catcher, which is a really, really valuable position and a position also where the Mariners currently kind of have the least need for a starter. But you are always just one pitch away from losing your catcher for extended stretches of time. And so it just makes a lot of sense to me to keep him because he's still at least a year away from seeing major league time, at which point I don't think he's a starter right away.

And then you're talking about year five of Cal Rawley, who catchers do not have super long shelf lives generally, and they really don't when they get played the way that the Mariners play Cal Rawley. Like yesterday, I was sitting with Thurs. And they were, you know, as the disaster was unfolding and the Nats were staging a comeback, I leaned over and I said, cal Rawley's going to pinch hit and he's going to catch at least one inning, probably two in this game, because that man cannot get a day off even in the middle of 43 out of 45 games. In a row. He cannot get a full day off. They are running him into the ground. I think they do not think they're going to extend him. He's one of their most valuable players.

I think it makes a lot of sense to have Harry Ford ready to go as an in house option. At the same time, you know, looking three years down the road and still having cal rally around, like, maybe Perry Ford does become expendable, and I think he would net maybe the biggest return in the system right now just because of the proximity of talent and the combination of talent and proximity and at such a demanding position, durs really wants them to start playing him in the infield or the outfield, like, once a week just to, like, show that off. I'm skeptical about that. Do you guys think that's a good idea, just to try to, like, increase his value?

Brian Wood
No.

John Troup
No, John, I'm not opposed to it, but I think they have. Part of their, like, work with him has specifically been, we are going to treat you like a catcher. You are going to catch as long, you know, you keep working at this. We're going to. We want you to focus on it. I don't think that can be. I don't think that needs to be totally undermined, but I do think anyone who would trade for him would be either has their opinion that they think he'll be a catcher or that he won't. And I don't think the Mariners. I think almost leaving that as an uncertainty, not an uncertainty, because I think he'd be fine. He'd certainly be fine as an outfielder, whatever, an infielder. But let someone else do that. If that's what someone else wants to do, that can be their thing. You're going to develop as a catcher, which is he is showing he can be, and that's more important than any other defensive thing where it's easier and, like, you know, if that's what someone else wants him to be, great.

Brian Wood
I think that line of thinking, too, was more important when he was further down the ladder. He's succeeding in double a. It was different when it was like, oh, he's way out, and like, we don't know if he's going to be a catcher, and so you might want to see if you can quicken the acceleration of his development. He's already here. He's probably going to play next year. If not, get a cup of coffee this season. So it's like he's already gone through the process of developing as a catcher. Why undercut that now? To put him in a less valuable position just to see if somebody wants to bring him up six weeks earlier. Like that doesn't make any sense to me for the Mariners or for anybody else.

Evan James
And why give him a new thing to think about when for the first time in his career, I mean, he's crushing it in perhaps the hardest ballpark for a right handed hitter in the minor leagues?

He's walking almost as much as he's striking out. He has essentially the highest ISO of his career in that ballpark. I mean, I feel like just lock in those gains rather than try to add on to it with the positional versatility that, as you say, John, like someone else can do.

John Troup
Yeah, I think there's a rare, extremely reasonable shot. He goes 2020 this year in, like you said, with the home ballpark that is one of the hardest in minor league baseball. I know he's only at five homers right now. He's got eleven steals in eleven tries. I think as summer heats up, if they just keep letting him work, there he is. You know, a 2020 catcher is nuts. That's outrageous. And, and young for the level. Doing a good job. What's up?

Evan James
And young for the level.

John Troup
And young for the level. Exactly. He is 21 years old and a pretty young 21 years old. No, he.

I am still of the mind. I do think the case that they are running Cal into the ground thinking they're not going to extend him.

I don't even know that it's that intentional.

But I do just think that may be ultimately where it ends up at because he is so, so much better than their other options. Frankly, them trading Blake Hunt is.

Was surprising to me.

Brian Wood
I don't know. Yeah, I don't know how I feel about that one, honestly.

John Troup
I don't know how much Mike Bowman, Bauman Mike bomb. He's. He's not bad. I think. I think he has more capability to be compelling than like, Austin both and some of the other folks they have there. But y'all know Sebi Zavala is on this team, right? Like what? Like. And you have a right handed hitting prospect catcher who might be able to hit a lick. I don't think Blake hunts a particularly stellar defensive catcher. So I get why Zavala, you know, would theoretically get precedent, but Sebi Zavala is not killing it defensively either. Like, people are running roughshod on this man. And I know you still off the pitcher, but no, Cal is at least threatening guys. Second of all, I think Cal is a very good defensive catcher, but like, yeah, sorry, go ahead.

Evan James
No, I was going to just repeat the line about Sebi Zavala and not being a defensive first catcher. He's just a catcher who can't hit.

John Troup
Exactly. Exactly. I think division.

Yeah.

Brian Wood
I still think he's a left fielder and people are just wrong about where they've been putting him on the diamond because he doesn't look like there to me.

Evan James
He can't hit enough to be a catcher. He definitely can't hit enough to be a left field.

Brian Wood
Well, maybe not a major league left fielder.

Evan James
He'd crush the wiffle ball circuit.

John Troup
Yeah.

Evan James
The thing that intrigues me about Harry Ford is it does feel like he is the most expendable given the position that he plays relative to the others who are middle infielders or farther away, where what position they play matters less because by the time they get close enough, like, the whole major league will have ship, you know, shuffled up a little bit, and this just feels like the type of team that it is worth doing a chips in move for. You know, Jerry Depot has really, in his entire tenure with the Mariners, only ever done two chips in moves that are really that dramatic. And it was the Julio extension and the Luis Castillo trade. And those were. The Julio extension was like a one off, like, aberrational situation.

The Castillo trade was because the Mariners were in it but not locked in, and it was a time to try to make that happen. And I think last year, if the schedule had adjusted by two weeks and they were sort of where they were in mid August at the trade deadline, maybe they do it again. But this year, it's looking like it could shape up for that to be worth doing and getting the improvement you get out of a Luis Castillo, which Harry Ford on his own would not get, but like being, doing a move that gets you the kind of return, the trading way Harry Ford gets, I think, is worth doing for this type of team.

John Troup
I will only push on. Expendable is not quite the right word, but because they have so many middle infield prospects in roughly the same age group, I would be slightly surprised if at least one of them isn't dealt. And what I'm talking about in that. In that sort of farmello. Well, Formella is in the outfield. In that. In that age range, yes. But, but Ty Pete, Colt, Emerson, Felnine, Celestine Koyon and. And Cole Young. Yes. The, of those four right now, it thus far hasn't quite yet been an issue because Cole Young's in double a. Emerson Emerson's been hurt and Pete have both been hurt, and then Farmella's. Farmella has also been hurt, but at least he is back now and again, he's playing in center, and so you're not running into the issue of we have four short stops and two teams or three teams to play, basically.

Now that's not the end of the world. The Cleveland Guardians entire last decade is we have 15 shortstops that would be top ten prospects in, like, two thirds of the systems.

Whatever.

What are you going to do about it?

And we're just going to continue bringing them up and either then trading them for great players for, you know, continuing to, you know, filling the diamond with them, it's not a huge challenge, but the Mariners have been pretty, pretty targeted in the way that they have moved each player up. I think they really wanted to move Colt Emerson up soon and bring Celestine in. I think they're probably going to continue playing. I would say Michael Arroyo is the other player in that same range and in that same class who is also a middle infielder or at least a left side infielder.

And really, the only thing that matters here is if you want to maximize the sort of value of your prospects and maximize their development, then they need to be playing the most challenging positions that you think they can handle. And if you think all of them can handle shortstop, you're going to miss out on some time by bouncing them around the infield there a bunch, and other teams are not going to see them as quite as valuable. So that is why I think one of those players in that Arroyo, Emerson, young Pete and Celestine cohort gets moved. I don't love it, but I do think that's. That's an area where they can say, well, we can spare someone that's not, I will say how the Mariners have typically operated.

They have been very comfortable in my. In our. In our recent history, and especially in this sort of depot and now Hollander era trading from not really where we would consider they have depth. Right. They traded Noel Vimarte and, um, Edwin Arayo, who were the only two realistically significant major middle infield prospects in the system. They did it for a very, very good reason, but they, you know, they left the whole system without prospects that they only now have restocked in there.

Brian Wood
Which, for the record, was the right choice. It's important to remember when we're excited about the prospects that Noel Vimarte and Edwin Arroyo have not panned out, really, for the Reds, even though, you know, obviously Noel v. Looked great in his short stint with the Reds, but the suspension this year, it's like the Mariners would take Luis Castillo and then resign Luis Castillo over whatever results they would have gotten from those two prospects. So it. We're going to have to bleed to make this work. You know what I mean? Like, that's the way to view it is if we're going to get a real impact player, we're going to trade somebody we want to keep. It's going to cost cool yard just to. Maybe.

Evan James
I agree with you, Evan, but just to, like, satiate those who are yelling at their, their headphones right now, like, all of us agree the actual thing you can do is spend money, but, like, premised upon the fact that they're not willing to do that. The way the major league team is going to get better is by trading.

Yes, but we all agree with you that is the better way to do it.

John Troup
I. We have not talked about Lazaro Montez.

If you.

Evan James
If they trade him, I will be heartbroken.

John Troup
I will also be.

Brian Wood
Our Kate will be in despair.

John Troup
I fundamentally don't think that they trade Lazaro Montez, and I don't think it really would make much sense for them to try and trade Lazaro Montez at this stage.

I think he, the level of improvements that we're seeing from him this year, where he is basically been just as good of a hitter but striking out significantly less, again, is so wildly encouraging to me.

I think they know what they have on Lazaro Montez, who is, I would say, going to be a top 50 prospect when you start seeing lists, you know, fully updating in sort of the next month or two. That, that, I think is what you are going to see because there just aren't that many 19 year olds who are hitting this well with the, with eliminate shaving off concern points every year of, you know, oh, he was striking out a ton at the earlier level. Well, now he's hitting for power in game, but he's struggling with, you know, these pitches. Well, now he's not chasing those pitches and he's getting to those and he's walking more like it just, I can't wait to see him in Everett. And I think that that is not someone that they will trade, not even because it's untouchable, but just because they're so big on folks who follow their program and continue making improvements, that's who they want to reward as well.

Evan James
Yeah, I mean, I think that's, we've talked about that's like a big part of why clause is the option that has come up when there's been a ultra build. It's been in part about, like, creating a culture where that sort of behavior gets rewarded.

John Troup
Yeah.

Evan James
Yeah.

Montez, to me, just seems like the player most likely to make you really, really regret having traded him. The one that's, like, really deeply embarrassing. That was in your system and you gave up.

John Troup
Yeah.

Evan James
For whatever it is you gave them up for. Like, it just the other players have high ceilings, too. I just. There's just something about that level of hitter that just seems so hard to come by.

John Troup
Right.

Brian Wood
I think the only thing I would add is, John, you said the team doesn't need to have untouchables, but I would. I think they certainly do because they have the breadth of prospects in the system where they can afford to say there are a few guys who are not trading and some of these other guys you can have, and that's the right way to do it. The right way is to be flush with prospects and with talent and to pick guys you believe in and to change the assets of guys you don't or of guys you think are higher risk. And I don't even know who they're trading for, like this. The wild thing about the discussion we're having right now is we haven't posited any actual return for it. We're just speculating who is, like, on the tree that could be shaken loose. And I do think it's fair to assume that there are some guys they will not let fall 100%, and Montez.

John Troup
Is on that list. I think that is the tricky part, is the Mariners. You sort of joked about it, Zam, earlier, but like, it. I think you meant it as well of like, this roster looks like a bunch of Jerry depot trade targets at the deadline.

The only way, there's two ways, you know, they could go about improving the deadline. One is going after the sort of same type of people that they've typically gone for, which is, like, above average ish players to slightly above average who, you know, the Mariners think will, like, stabilize or, like, keep a hole from be, you know, keep a hole from being created. But the Mariners already have an entire roster of that type of player, so it, in my opinion, only really makes sense to make a move if either you have an immense amount of confidence that one particular player, you know, there's something you can improve in them that you know will bring something better about, or that you can get a significant, significant improvement at a position that you currently have unfilled right now and that, I think would be first base, either second or third or one of the corner outfield spots. I don't think it would make a ton of sense, at least how things are right now for them to trade for another pitcher.

They could do a move where, like, they trade one of the, like, young starting pitchers for like a really, really top level pitcher who is more established. But even that is like, I don't know that that's, that would be surprising to me, I guess.

But, like, the areas that they need to improve, it's like, yeah, you need to find essentially a star who is on a crap team.

And that's, there's one, there's one, it's.

Evan James
Luis Robert, end of listen.

John Troup
Right.

Brian Wood
And he's not having the best season either. That's the tough thing about it is a couple of the guys that I otherwise would have thought would be interesting trade candidates this year are kind of having bad years and so they're a little bit off the table.

John Troup
Like, I like Jazz Chisholm junior, he's not, he is, he's an upside play. Good.

Evan James
It's dangerous.

John Troup
He is an upside play. Yeah. You know, he's like, he's been a good player this year. He's got a 118 WRC and he runs well and he's, you know, he's still learning to play the outfield some, but he has good range and just makes like you'd be putting him in the corner outfield spot, so you need him to hit more. So, like, that's a weird place to be. You know, the Mets have players, but, like, their good players are under contract for a long time.

Evan James
They're not trading the door.

John Troup
Right. So, you know, I think Robert is likely, you know, around what you're, what you're looking at. You know, it's you, maybe you can sell the Cardinals on trading one of their, one of their bigger guys, but even then it's like, well, Nolan, I don't know, what are you, what are you looking for there? Like, are you looking for Nolan Aronato, who is not actually been performing nearly as well as you would need him to perform at? Like, it really is? I think we'll have more clarity, certainly in a month. But that's the, that's the puzzle is the Mariners actually have plenty of options to trade that wouldn't crush them in a way that it would in years past. But the options, the bad teams, quote unquote, are either bad because they don't have players worth trading for or not. So bad that they would trade a star.

And, you know, I guess all. All of what I'm saying is the idea, you know, the Blue Jays are kind of. I'm. I'm watching them very, very closely of what are the Blue Jays if they.

Brian Wood
Want to trade Boba shet? We can do.

John Troup
What are the Blue Jays and Rays trying to do? Because that's the. You know, that's sort of of the only places where I'm seeing, like, possible daylight for something interesting, right? Be shet Florito a Rosarena Rosarina, who.

Brian Wood
Again, is having a bad year. Like, it's kind of sucks. You'd like to bring in somebody who's really hitting the COVID off the ball so you feel good about them. You don't want to bring in somebody who was a star, who isn't now. That's what half the team, the Pirates.

John Troup
Want to trade Brian Reynolds. Now, now that they've extended, again, not having a superstar yet, John, you're gonna.

Evan James
Need to take a laugh for throwing that one into the discourse.

John Troup
Listen, Kate's not here.

We can.

We can explore this space, and she'll be livid when she gets back, but that's okay.

Brian Wood
We all know she does not listen to the podcast.

John Troup
Yes, we are. We are safe here.

Evan James
All right, well, my cat took a little bit of a tumble, so can we. Can we call that. Can we call it.

Brian Wood
Yeah, let's wrap it up.

John Troup
I think that's. That's a great. That's a great place to call it.

I'm sorry to your kitty for the sort of shock.

Shockwave emotionally, of bringing up Brian Reynolds again here, but I am grateful to the two of you, to Evan and to Zach, for hopping on to chat mariners today, and grateful to all of you all for tuning in. Of course, we are also grateful to McDougal bats, our stalwart sponsors.

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Evan James
It's a bat that will last as long as the copy on your ad read.

John Troup
I think that there is no chance, even with the quality engineering of the folks at McDougal bats, of that. However, I do recommend the product and recommend you continue meeting us at the Mitt.

Until next time.

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Stirred, Not Shaken - Can The Mariners Hang on to First Place? Meet at the Mitt Podcast

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