Can Kamala Harris win?

This episode delves into the implications and dynamics surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris's potential presidential candidacy following President Biden's decision not to seek reelection.

1. Rapid Consolidation: The Democratic Party quickly unified behind Kamala Harris following Biden's withdrawal, sparking debates about the democratic nature of this selection.
2. Electability Concerns: There are mixed opinions on Harris's electability, with discussions on her perceived weaknesses and the impact of identity politics.
3. Vice Presidential Considerations: Potential vice-presidential candidates are discussed, emphasizing the strategic importance of this choice in balancing the ticket.
4. Republican Strategy: The episode covers the Republican response to Biden's withdrawal and Harris's emerging candidacy, noting their unpreparedness for this new adversary.
5. Cultural and Political Impact: Discussions also highlight how race and gender might influence the electoral dynamics and public perception of Harris's candidacy.

1. Introduction

Ruth Marcus sets the stage for the discussion on the political aftermath of Biden's decision to not run for reelection. She frames the episode's focus on the implications for Kamala Harris.

• Ruth Marcus: "This is impromptu with Washington Post opinions, a show where we bring you conversations about the issues we can't stop thinking about."

2. The Consolidation Behind Harris

The columnists discuss the Democratic Party's swift move to support Harris, questioning the lack of a broader candidate search.

• Perry Bacon: "It seems like Harris will be the nominee very quickly after Biden withdraws."

3. Challenges and Opportunities

The conversation shifts to the challenges Harris might face as a candidate, including her past performance and public perception.

• Shadi Hamid: "I personally think she's a weak candidate. I have never been the biggest fan of the decision to select her as the VP in the first place."

4. Vice Presidential Speculations

The potential running mates for Harris are debated, considering their political and demographic impacts on the race.

• Perry Bacon: "I've mentioned that I think Whitmer is a good politician in Woodwood, Michigan."

1. Stay Informed: Keep abreast of political developments to make informed decisions during elections.
2. Engage in Dialogue: Discuss political views and candidate merits to foster a healthy democratic environment.
3. Support Diverse Candidates: Encourage and support candidates from diverse backgrounds to ensure a broad representation.
4. Understand Electoral Dynamics: Learn about the strategic decisions behind candidate selections and their implications.
5. Promote Democratic Engagement: Participate in or advocate for more transparent and inclusive candidate selection processes.

After all the hand-wringing over the last month, it took only about 24 hours for Democrats to fall in line behind Vice President Harris as their new nominee. Even so, some worry she’s not the strongest candidate that could have been put forward. Our columnists discuss whether she can win, who might join her as a running mate and what it means for her chances to be a woman of color on the top of the ticket in 2024.

People

Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Ruth Marcus, Perry Bacon, Shadi Hamid

Content Warnings:

None

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Ruth Marcus
So how was everybody's weekend, and where were you when you heard the news, and what was your reaction?

Shadi Hamid
Wait, which news?

Ruth Marcus
Nice try.

Shadi Hamid
There's something about it finally happening that is kind of surreal.

Perry Bacon
The president is not running for re election. It's still kind of a stunning thing.

Shadi Hamid
Like, wait, what planet are we on? And the fact that all these other things happened over the past week and a half, I mean, it reminds me of the Vladimir Lenin quote. There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.

Ruth Marcus
That is a good quote for this time. This is impromptu with Washington Post opinions, a show where we bring you conversations about the issues we cant stop thinking about. Im Ruth Marcus. And this week were diving into the aftermath of President Bidens decision to discontinue his campaign for a second term. We are recording this Monday, July 22, and in the 24 hours since Biden made his announcement, he and many Democrats have rushed to get behind Vice President Kamala Harris. But there's some disagreement about whether there should be more openness to the process to nominate the next democratic candidate. Are Democrats too afraid of disorder? I'm here to talk that through with two of my colleagues.

Perry Bacon
I'm Perry Bacon. I'm one of the columnists here at the Post.

Shadi Hamid
Hi, I'm Shadi Hamid. I'm a columnist and also a member of the editorial board.

Ruth Marcus
Okay, so let's start, guys, with the big question. And I have some thoughts of my own on this that I may feel compelled to share with you, is vice president Harris's nomination. Once the president Biden makes a decision that he's withdrawing, was that just an inevitability? And so all of the viable candidates, maybe the viable candidates who might have their eyes on 2028 just knew from the get go that win or lose, it was going to turn out this way, that it was going to be Harris nomination to have. And so this just is a sort of speeded up version of an inevitable process. Is that the way you see it?

Perry Bacon
Perry, at least my reporting in the week before this, I talked to a lot of groups on left, center left, and the general consensus was Harris is going to be the candidate. There's going to be a coalescing around her if he gets out. People felt like, we don't want to do this convention thing. Right or wrong, there's a lot of uncomfortability in the Democratic Party. I think with this sort of uncertainty, they thought the last three weeks were too long, so having four more weeks was too long. You know, I told my wife a few days before this happened. It's like, seems like Harris will be the nominee very quickly after Biden withdraws. And Whitmer herself said, I don't want to run on tv somewhere two weeks ago. So that goes to the point that it wasn't as if Joe Biden's and something else made her think, this is not my time.

Shadi Hamid
And, Perry, could I just maybe push back on one thing? I guess that's my concern, that Democrats very quickly, over the span of just 24 hours, rallied behind Harris. That didn't leave open a path for others, and they just sort of wade the deck or whatever that expression is. And what if there had been more of an effort to kind of democratize elders to take a step back and not, and let's say that Biden himself didn't endorse Kamala? And I think then you could have had a different story then people like Whitmer and Bashir, Josh Shapiro would have actually been willing to contest.

Perry Bacon
To be fair to these candidates, they may have decided on their own that running in July of the election year, coming at the last minute may not be the best path. Whitmer may be like, I'd love to see Kamala kala Harris sacrifice. Kamala Harris is gonna lose or Biden's gonna lose, and then I can come out on my own terms. That seems an entirely reasonable and probably, maybe unpatriotic, but wiz, but wise decision. If her goal is to be in.

Shadi Hamid
The oval office, oh, my God, they put their own individual interests over that of the country.

Perry Bacon
Politicians would never do that.

Shadi Hamid
I personally think she's a weak candidate. I have never been the biggest fan of the decision to select her as the VP in the first place. How did we end up with this choice? And why do Democrats tend to choose vps who are not very compelling or even presidential candidates? So Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and now Kamala. Is it so much to ask for Democrats to actually come up with people who are exciting and inspiring. It can't just be Barack Obama, can it?

Ruth Marcus
Well, can we talk for just a second about downsides and opportunity costs? Because you mentioned this took. Was, has it been three weeks since the debate? Time has lost its meaning and the decades that Shadi was talking about are flashing through my head. I had been thinking that there was a really big opportunity cost to the amount of time it took for President Biden to do what I believe is the right, come to the right conclusion and withdraw from the race. But I'd actually been thinking that it wasn't so bad to let the Republicans go through their convention and have it focused on the assumption of Biden in the race and not have them able to retool and respond until after that, especially since the fear of the much vaunted and perhaps well founded fears of democratic infighting and implosion have not come to be. So do you guys think that there is a cost to the delay in the outcome?

Shadi Hamid
I think it benefits Democrats in interesting ways for the reasons that you mentioned that the republican convention didn't focus on Kamala. And now Republicans are kind of unprepared for this shift, and they could have spent days during their convention kind of going through her record and sharpening their contrasts and all of that. So in that sense, I think the timing actually works well for Democrats. Also, there's some interesting reporting about how JD Vance was selected as someone who would run the margins and if it was already going to be an easy win over Biden, have someone who satisfies the base and actually transforms the party in ways that have real future consequences. If they wanted to appeal to moderates and swing state voters, they probably would have gone with someone else who's more moderate adjacent, like Tim Scott or Doug Bergamde and any number of other folks.

Ruth Marcus
Perry, how do you see it?

Perry Bacon
So in terms of the timing, it probably did work out well that the republican convention was full of attacks on a person who's not running now. But more importantly, I'm glad that the sitting president was not removed. It's good that it took at least three weeks. I mean, this is like a stunning process. The sitting president who wants to run for reelection is sort of forced to not run against his will, despite there being no voters involved. Glad he got to have the time to say, I'm running. I'm the best candidate. And then Speaker Pelosi and Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer and others said, no, you're not, we had a full. It seemed long, but in some ways, three weeks, not a long time. And there was a full discourse of, first, he must leave immediately. A second discourse of, oh, a lot of people like him. Did you know that every black congressman likes him? I think a lot of the polling was aired out. Harris does not poll that well, for that matter. You know, Whitmer, who I've. Who I've been very favorable toward, is not polling that much better than President Biden. So I think you've had a full airing, a necessary airing of, like, this is a really challenging question, because on some level, none of the democratic candidates who are out there are clearly going to beat Donald Trump based on what we know now.

Shadi Hamid
Michelle Obama.

Perry Bacon
Michelle Obama. You're right. Good point. That is true in every fall. Yes.

Ruth Marcus
As George HW Bush would have said, not gonna run. Not gonna run. Okay, so, Perry, talk about how you see Vice President Harris political strengths, and in particular, can you address the question in 2024 of both gender and race and whether they are a net plus, a net minus, or how they impact the path going forward?

Perry Bacon
I mean, I think it is worth saying that I believe there is racism. I believe there is sexism. I think these are important forces in our culture. Barack Obama won two elections. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in a third election. I think Kamala Harris can be elected president. I'm not. All things equal, you'd rather be a white person in a majority white country and probably a man, a country with some patriarchy. Obviously, I don't think that it is that she cannot win or that she is not electable based on her race and gender. And I think that I could imagine her winning because the country is so polarized, Trump is so unpopular. I mean, I guess, to be totally honest here, I mean, my worry about this whole campaign, it seems like Trump is inclined, is likely to win. And as a black person, I do think when Joe Biden loses, one white man who's old loses. And when Kamala Harris loses, we're gonna have a whole another round of discourse about the exact state of, was it 10% race, 15% race, 14% gender? Like 2016? That I'm not personally, like, looking forward to, because I think it's a complicated question of Kyle Morris doesn't win. We've discussed right now that her previous run was not great. She struggled at times to figure out what she was for. This is a hard question. Yeah, I don't. I don't know how it's gonna play out, but I don't think. I think she can win. Important to emphasize that, you know, on.

Shadi Hamid
The question of race, if I can just dive into that controversial morass. One thing that's bothered me is that there's been a lot of discussion about if the Democratic Party passed over Kamala, that would lead to an internal civil war, that black women and people of color would just be outraged that another person of color was passed over. I just want to just register that. I think that troubles me a lot, this way of talking, because it makes people of color sound like all they care is about race and identity politics, that the only thing that black women could possibly care about is whether another black woman was the candidate. And I just think that this is the kind of thinking that is just so narrow minded and it's patronizing. I mean, like, I personally, as a different kind of person of color, the idea that people would just see me in one particular way because I'm arab or muslim or brown just really rubs me the wrong way. And I would like to think that, let's say there was an arab or muslim presidential candidate, and then we realized that that person was not best suited to actually beat Donald Trump or a future Republican in 20 years. I would like to think that I could put that to the side and support a white person who had a better chance of beating this hypothetical future Republican. But I don't know, Perry, if. If you have any additional thoughts on that.

Perry Bacon
I do think in the few days before Biden decided to withdraw, the ways you had a lot of black congressmen. Black. I hate the word elites, but, like, a lot of people who lead groups or who are activists or who are sort of prominent, have social media accounts, et cetera, who are. Who are vocal, were saying, I prefer Biden, stick with Biden. But if not, it has to be Harris. And so let's use the term elites for now. So if black elites are saying that, and I think one of my, two of my colleagues, I think, said this, Michelle Norris and Gene Robinson said something like that in their pieces today, Harris should not be passed over. So, in reality, if you're Gretchen Whitmerdeh, I don't know that you want to run in the heat of, oh, every black person with a Twitter account says they would. Skipping over Harris is an outrage. I think the black elite opinion about Harris and shouldn't pass over. I'm not sure if it's represented in necessarily every poll of black people in the rank and file.

Shadi Hamid
I mean, that's a really good point, but this makes me worried that it's the same identity politics being the determining factor and nothing the person who has a best chance of beating Donald Trump. I mean, if Gretchen Whitmer doesn't want to put her hat in the ring because she doesn't want to be perceived as passing over a person of color, is that really the best reason to not contest the nominations? Do we really want to organize ourselves, organize ourselves as a party in that particular way?

Perry Bacon
No, but I'm not sure. But it's one of those things where it's like, this is where we are. So I'm not sure we're going to end identity politics on this podcast.

Ruth Marcus
But, you know, yes, I am going to jump in to say that we were talking about the possible vice presidential candidates. So I'd like to get into that. I'd like to get into the republican response. But first, we need to take a quick break.

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Ruth Marcus
Welcome back. I'm Ruth Marcus, and this is impromptu, so the question on everybody's mind is who's the next Kamala Harris? That is, who would be smart for her to pick for the bottom of the ticket? And Perry, why don't you go first on that one?

Perry Bacon
I've mentioned that I think Whitmer is a good politician in Woodwood, Michigan. And I think the idea of, I think we, I hate the sort of reductive, there's a, you know, there's a woman of color on the ticket, so she must pick the dullest white man possible. And so that's what, you know, how many votes did Hillary Clinton gain from Tim Kaine? A number close to and maybe just zero.

Ruth Marcus
Oh, don't be mean to Tim Kaine.

Perry Bacon
You know, Tim Kaine's an honorable person and very intelligent and just not somebody who I remember saying anything, you know, on the trail. So Whitmer, to me, I think the idea of two women might be a good contrast with Vance and Trump. So that'd be who I think would be the best candidate. But I'm assuming we're talking. I would, I'll give a shout out to my governor, Andy Bashir in Kentucky, who's done a great job. So he's on the list and I think he'd be an excellent person. I think the two sort of most obvious choices are Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. I keep hearing from candidly, my jewish friends, that we can't have a jewish candidate and a black candidate is too much. And I'm sort of like, Josh Shapiro's the governor of Pennsylvania. He's popular in a swing state. Why don't we, let's, let's hear him. I want to consider that. And then Cooper, Roy Cooper in northeast has got a good record. So I think those are, and then, oh, I should ask Mark Kelly in Arizona. I know, I'll be honest. I know less about, but obviously Arizona is a swing state, so he could be helpful.

Ruth Marcus
So I just want to interject and say something about the concept of a two woman ticket. Great. On a West Wing episode, less great. In reality, a certain editor who will go unnamed tried to tempt me into writing about the allure of a two women ticket. And I just am not buying it. I'm sorry. I hope we are ready for a woman president. I hope we are ready for a black woman president. I am not sure that the best way to get the voters who need to be gotten is with a two woman ticket as much as I would like, as important as Michigan is. And that would be a big temptation, I also have to say, as a jewish american watching Michigan and watching what's been going on since October 7, the notion of even governor of Pennsylvania who's jewish in the current environment does make me politically nervous just for sheer, how are you going to win Michigan? And you need to win Michigan reasons. And so that does make me think about a Mark Kelly or somebody else who could bring in a swing state without cost. And yes, for anybody who's wondering, the governor of Arizona is a Democrat, so would be able to appoint a Democrat to the Senate. Well, let's finish up, because we've been talking about Democrats, except for our reference to the GOP convention, by talking about how Republicans have handled this, this was not the outcome they wanted. They did not respond, in my view, with charity towards anyone. They have been extremely, I think, gratuitously dismissive and negative towards President Biden. Theres a lot of talk about, well, if he cant run, he shouldnt be able to serve. This seems a little crazy to me since you really want to be running against the incumbent president. Harris doesnt make sense. Are they handling, are they playing a less good hand badly or are they smarter than I'm giving them credit for?

Perry Bacon
I do not interpret them as being nervous about Kamala Harris. I think it is probably the case that she will do better in a debate than Biden did because it would be hard to do worse. The first thing out of the gate is I'm genuinely curious what Harris is going to say about Biden's stances that are divisive or unpopular or complicated, Gaza being the number one, and I think that's good. There's an opportunity where Harris has to put out ten or 15 policy stands that I assume the Republicans will immediately focus on. She ran in 2019 and talked about the Green new deal and Medicare for All and took a lot of liberal stands that I assume she's going to backtrack from. So they've got a free for all on flip flopping. I think they're going to have a pretty good initial week with her and I doubt their too worried about it. I mean, I could resign some of the attacks myself. I mean, this is not facing an Andy Bashir who's been pretty moderate and been a governor of a state no one cares about.

Ruth Marcus
You know, Shadi, I want to roll back to the republican response and have they been playing their hand well or poorly?

Shadi Hamid
I still think that this election is the Republicans to lose. I think they're still in the clear advantage. There is a risk of them being overconfident, but we've gotten a bit of a sense of what their attack lines are going to be on Kamala. Like over the past 24 hours, I've been seeing a lot of videos shared on Twitter of Kamala using pronouns to open up an event. So I think on some of the quote unquote woke stuff, I think that that cause Biden was not obviously woke in a discernible way. He was also like an old white man who didn't seem to be aware of pop culture. So I think that that's going to be maybe something that Republicans see as an advantage, that this is where Kamala is particularly weak. But also just note that I'm worried about a debate between Kamala and Trump in the sense that Kamala hasn't always done great under pressure. She has had a tendency to stumble and be very risk averse and be very careful in her phrasing, and that can lead her to say a lot but not say much at all. So this has always, I think, been one of the disadvantages with Harris. Can she rise to the occasion? And now we're finally gonna find out.

Ruth Marcus
So I guess I actually take Shadi's point that this election is Trump's to lose. I think his chances of losing it are increased with Biden out of the race. I think that Harris is probably a stronger candidate now than Shadi is giving her credit for. We will see. Time will tell. All of those cliches wrapped together. I think the thing that makes me happiest about this outcome, or at least less agitated about this outcome, is even if Democrats lose the White House and Trump is elected to a second term, democrats chances probably not of retaining the Senate, but of regaining control of the House, are increased. Without Biden on the ticket. There's more energy, there's less drag. And I think the guardrail of House control would turn out to be very important in a God forbid we see it second Trump term. So on that semi cheery note, I'm going to thank you guys for participating in yet another episode of Impromptu. This one was definitely impromptu. Thanks so much.

Perry Bacon
Thanks, Ruth.

Shadi Hamid
Thanks for having us, Ruth.

Ruth Marcus
All right, and before you go, listeners, here's a quick word from our humor columnist, Alexandra Petrae.

Alexandra Petrae
Hi, Alexandra Petrae here. So, in the news coverage of President Biden's decision to withdraw his name from the nomination, I kept seeing mention of a high powered group of super friends, friends who were ostensibly going to drop in and convince him. I think that was the Daily Beast report. Haunted as I am by that turn of phrase, which sounds very care bear or justice league, depending on your demographic, I also scoffed at the idea that anyone, even a high powered group of so called super friends, could convince the most powerful 81 year old in the United States, if not the world, to do anything he didn't want to do, just based on the ease of convincing anyone to do anything. But I guess I was wrong. Clearly, the super friends were way more persuasive than I thought. So if they can persuade the literal president to stop running again, something Joe Biden has been doing for longer than I've been alive, they shouldn't stop there. They need to bottle this power and sell it. Please, can the super friends also come to my house and get my toddler to stop throwing food on the floor? Get Apple to put normal headphone jacks on its products again. Get Taylor Swift to make a tour stop in DC. We're a city. We have venues. Get Disney to remove McClunky from the sole cut of Star wars. They have made available on the Disney app. Get Commander Biden to reform himself. Get my husband to stop making us go to the airport 2 hours early. Granted, there's a lot of fun stuff to do at the airport. Get the mosquito who spent all of last night whining in my ear to leave once and for all. Get my friend not to pick bright teal for her bridesmaid attire. Get the New York Times games people to stop putting the letters ing in the spelling bee, which makes it a chore rather than a joy. Whoever's in charge of DC's weather, get them to stop it. Tell whoever wouldn't let them kiss in twisters to put the kiss back in. I don't care if it was Spielberg. Get my favorite bakery to bring back the quiche. I live for that quiche. And get Donald Trump to, you know, not. Of course, this assumes it was really the super friends who pushed him over the edge and not looking at what the overwhelming majority of his voters wanted, contemplating the stakes of the election and having the maturity to reach the decision he thought would be best for the country. If it was that, im never going to get the quiche back.

Ruth Marcus
This episode was produced by Hadley Robinson, Demir Marusek and Chris Sullentrop, and edited by Alison Michaels. It was mixed by Emma Munger and Chris Rukan designed our art. Special thanks to Millie Mitra and Travis Meyer. Thanks for listening to this episode of Impromptu. As always, we want to hear the from you. Let us know your reactions to the episode and what you think we should talk about next, so please email us@impromptuashpost.com. thanks so much.