Will President Biden Drop Out?

Barry Weiss
From the free press, this is honestly, and I'm Barry Weiss. The past few days have been the most dramatic of any I can remember. Well, at least since November 8, 2016. For the past six days since President Biden's disastrous debate performance on CNN, we've been in limbo. And it's really a limbo of two kinds.

One is the question of who is going to be on the democratic ticket in this upcoming presidential election. And the second, and maybe more alarming, is who's actually been running the country, or at least running it, before 10:00 a.m. and after 04:00 p.m. eSt. Every moment it seems, another shoe drops, another devastating poll, another devastating leak, all of which leads to one conclusion.

Biden has got to throw in the towel. But the White House insists he's not doing that. They say he's in it for the long haul. I am running, said Biden. No one's pushing me out.

I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end, and we're going to win. Oy. Well, today I've invited Axios, national political correspondent Alex Thompson onto the show to help us make sense of what is actually going on and what might come next. Alex has been covering Biden for years, and he's one of the few reporters who long before Thursday night dared report on the subject of Biden's health.

He has been dominating this beat, and there's just no one better situated to break down how the Biden camp is dealing with the fallout since the debate. We also talk about who might replace Biden if he does indeed drop out, what happens to Biden's campaign war chest, why the media missed this story for months, whether it was intentional or just incompetent, how Democrats have managed to do a complete 180 on Biden and also what this could mean for the future of the country. We'll be right back. Hey, guys, Josh Hammer here, the host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer, a podcast for the first podcast network. Look, there are a lot of shows out there that are explaining the political news cycle, what's happening on the Hill, to this, to that.

Josh Hammer
There are no other shows that are cutting straight to the point when it comes to the unprecedented lawfare, debilitating and affecting the 2024 presidential election. We do all that every single day right here on America on trial with Josh Hammer. Subscribe and download your episodes wherever you get your podcast. It's America on trial with Josh Hammer. Alex Thompson, thank you so much for making the time to join us on.

Alex Thompson
Honestly, I am so glad to be here. Thanks so much for inviting me. Okay. Well, every five minutes, it seems there is a new story dropping about President Biden, and you are personally breaking many of them. This episode is going to come out a few hours from now.

Barry Weiss
But we're sitting down and right now, 530 right around 530 eastern on July 3. And I'd love for you to just drop us into the moment. Where are we right now? The headline I read just before I came into the studio was one in which Biden was saying, absolutely no way he's going to drop out. So what's going on?

Alex Thompson
I mean, on the macro level, you basically have a White House in crisis, right? I mean, this was a White House that for the last three and a half years has sort of, you know, infamous for its, I guess, like, quote, unquote, lack of drama, or at least lack of reported drama. And I have never been able to get angry quotes from White House officials easier than I have the last three days. People are angry. They don't know what is going on.

And basically. So today is Wednesday. This was the first day that you really saw the White House jump into action to stop the bleeding. Now, the real question is, what took them so long? Everyone knew the debate was a disaster on Thursday night, but Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, they didn't do anything.

I mean, like Biden. I mean, I hope. Biden on Sunday was doing Annie Liebowitz photo shoot at Camp David with his family. He has still not spoken to reporters since the, since the debate. He did.

Why? He's basically done three teleprompter remarks. And, and, you know, today was the first day where you finally saw the senior leadership of Biden world try to reassure, I mean, you've seen them try to reassure donors and sort of the cable news talkers and their surrogates. But this was the first day where they finally realized they have a real problem internally on their own staff. There is a confusion, like a lack of morale that is quickly spreading through the White House and the campaign, in part because some of these people were as shocked as the country was when they watched the debate on Thursday.

Barry Weiss
How is that possible? How were they shocked? Because my understanding is that everyone knew, meaning anyone with eyeballs to see, watched these clips of Biden that had drip, drip, dripped out over the past few weeks and months and really beyond that, like, watched as he has faded somewhat over the past years. And it seems so clear that the reason to sort of keep him largely out of the public eye and that the spin, of course, was insisting that he was totally there, but that he so obviously wasn't. So I guess I'm wondering, like, if that's actually true or if that's a convenient thing that these people are now telling reporters as a way of covering their ass.

Alex Thompson
Completely. Fair question. These people that I'm talking about, they're sort of one or two or three rings out from the inner, inner circle. I'll explain it in two ways. One is the thing you have to understand about the Biden culture is in some ways, it's still very much like a Senate office.

There's really only ten, maximum 20 people that he is interacting with on a consistent day to day level. They have really relegated the consistent access to him, including not just among democratic lawmakers, but people inside the White House as well. So, you know, to give you one example, there was a White House official that I had talked to that had noticed sort of a senior moment when he interacted with him. Essentially, Biden asked to call a congressman's mom. And then he was reminded, well, you already called her, like, two weeks ago, right?

And this person was like, oh, that's sort of weird. Like, but, you know, he had only seen him a few times and, you know, in isolation, you can excuse it, right? It's just like a normal brain fart. You can sort of excuse it away. So there is definitely a core, and this is really the question.

This is where you could potentially get into, like, scandal territory, is these 20 people, ten to 20 people that were seeing him on a consistent basis, did they ever see, but the people outside of it, they didn't see him on a consistent level. And they were basically trusting the people up top. And some of this was by design of just sort of isolating Biden and keeping this protective cone around him. And some of it actually were habits that, that were learned or introduced during COVID And so when you enter the White House, some of those habits of keeping that very tight cocoon were never changed. So that's the first part.

The second part is sometimes I think there was this, I know there is this belief that the Biden is senile thing was a caricature that the right wing started back in 2019, back in 2020, well before Biden had really precipitously started struggling that we've seen, especially over the last year. And so there was this sort of, you know, I think, Democratic Party blue jersey team thing where, like, anything about the age was just, was right wing misinformation. Yes. A bad faith, like a right wing thing. And they did not recognize that maybe what started out as more bad faith eventually started becoming increasingly true.

And that's why the debate sort of finally shattered any of that illusion. I want to talk about the way journalists covered this in a second and why the most obvious story in the world seemed to be so uncovered until it now has sort of exploded into view. But let's stay for just a second on what's happening right now, because if you read different headlines, you get very different pictures. Biden's press secretary just said an hour ago he's clear eyed and he's staying in the race. He's absolutely not withdrawing.

Barry Weiss
Biden said today, I'm running. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end, and we're going to win. And yet, if you go to the New York Times homepage this morning, the headline was, Biden told Ally that he's weighing whether to continue in the race.

Help explain that chasm to us. Are there sort of different factions in the inner circle around him? Is the Biden ally leaking to the Times? Kamala Harris herself? Like, bring us into the sort of palace intrigue a little bit more, if you would.

Alex Thompson
You know, I have no idea what Katie, that was Katie Rogers, New York Times I don't have any idea what her sourcing was. What my sourcing is basically that Biden recognizes that this is finally, I mean, I don't know if he recognized it the first 72 hours, but Biden does recognize now that this is a potentially existential event, that this could be the end of his presidency. And I think in conversations, he has basically expressed that, that he knows that the next week is critical. And so now you're finally seeing him out there saying, yes, I'm in it, I'm in it. But, like, the thing is that, like, there was a vacuum for those five days and people were wondering, like, is it over?

We don't know. Like, is he okay? And, you know, so I think it's a combination. He's telling people, listen, I know that there's risk. I know that, like, this could be the end, but, like, I'm gonna fight.

And, like, this is him finally sort of, like, belatedly, like, getting into gear and stopping the internal bleeding. There was a really weird thing that happened, which is the debate happened. All of us were sort of slack jawed and in shock. Even those of us who thought it was going to be bad, it was like a thousand times worse. And when I went to bed at, like, three in the morning.

Barry Weiss
Pst that night I thought, like, this is over. Like, this is going to be done in the next 24 hours, next 48 hours. But what was so strange was this sort of, you had Axelrod, you had Obama, you had the Clintons, you had all of these people sort of coming out in full floor saying, he's staying in, we're behind him. Tell us about, like, the lag. Like, what was, what accounts for that silence over the four to five days?

What was the White House thinking? Why was that, in their view, sort of strategically smart to stay quiet for that long? Oh, I think, I think you're maybe giving them too much credit here. I don't know if this was as much strategy as it was. This is a White House in chaos.

Alex Thompson
It's in complete turmoil right now. And the Biden circle was already small and it's become, in the face of crisis, even smaller. And I think there was incredibly, my reporting suggests that there was not an immediate recognition among the Biden inner circle of how serious the fallout was from the debate. And they have only sort of finally come to recognize it, you know, a few days later. Well, you had an unbelievably memorable headline in Axios yesterday, which was freaking, we're not on cable, so I can say this freaking the fuck out.

Barry Weiss
Turmoil in the White House over Biden. Break it down a little bit for us. My understanding is that Jill Biden is really the force here. She is the one urging him to stay in the race, along with his son Hunter, who apparently is joining now for all of these meetings. I'd love to hear a little bit more about that.

Are there any forces? Sort of. First of all, is that accurate? And second of all, are there any key figures in that inner circle urging him to step down? I am not aware of any key figures in the inner circle urging him to step down.

Alex Thompson
It's possible they are, but I would be surprised. You know, sort of the, you know, within the very inner core of Biden world. You know, there, there is at times a, there is a fierce culture of loyalty, which is one of the reasons why there have been so few leaks. But the potential negative consequence of that culture is that if you raise potential problems, sometimes you can be labeled as disloyal, which, again, is, I think, part of the reason why they were a little bit slow to realize the severity of the fallout now in terms of the family dynamic. So, like, I mean, you know, Valerie Biden, Biden's sister, who's been part of his campaigns forever, has wrote in her book that even though Val didn't think Biden or was nervous about Biden running in 2020, that Jill was all in.

Jill has also been all in in 2024. There is certainly, you know, it's interesting, people that have, like, worked for Joe Biden for a long time or used to work for him for a long time or have known him for a long time, you know, the opinions are a bit split. There is significant anger at Jill Biden among some of those people feeling that, basically feeling that there's no way. She did not realize that his performance on Thursday was a possibility, but she let him go out there anyway and humiliate himself on the world stage, and there's fury at her not looking after the legacy. Now, some also people feel that sort of the blame on Jill or even Hunter is really taking some agency away from Joe Biden.

He was the one. I mean, he's president. He chose to run. And honestly, the only reason why that debate happened last Thursday is because Joe Biden wanted to debate. He made it very clear to his advisors early on that he wanted to debate.

You know, some of this was like ego. Some of this was clearly not seeing himself that clearly. Joe Biden has long sort of had a little bit of age denialism even before he was 81, and he thought Mano mano on the same stage with Trump that this was going to happen. And, you know, some advisors didn't think that was going to be a great idea, but the president wants it, so they made it happen, and we all saw the results. Alex, you're probably going to say that this is way overthinking it and, you know, don't give them so much credit, but I have to ask, just because this is an idea that's getting floated around among many smart people on places like Twitter, and they're basically saying this was all intentional.

Barry Weiss
In other words, everyone around Biden knew what a shit show this debate was gonna be, but they purposefully asked for it to be early enough ahead of the convention so that he would go on stage, humiliate himself, and there would be no other option for him other than to step aside, which now that question obviously hangs in the balance. What do you make of that argument? That this was sort of a setup and a way to get Biden offstage so that they could replace him with a more electable candidate? Listen, if I ever get the reporting to confirm that, I think I will win a. Some sort of awards, but I don't have.

Alex Thompson
Listen, I never say, like, nothing. You know, I never discount anything as possibly being true, but I don't have any reporting so far to suggest anything like that. Now, what I'll tell you in terms of what my reporting showed is the reason they asked for it early was twofold. The stated reason was that they were like, we're behind the polls. This will finally let voters clue into the fact that Donald Trump is actually going to be the nominee.

And finally, like, Trump, polarization will activate and democrats will finally, just, like, you know, resigningly go back to Joe Biden. The not stated reason why they scheduled it so early is because it was a hedge. Like, if you are Joe Biden staffer and he's saying, I want to debate. Even if you don't think it's a good idea, what's the most risk averse way that you can plan the debate? It is to have it as early as possible.

So that way you, like, you have four months to recover. Unlike in, like, 1980 with Carter Reagan, where they had, like, the last debate, the one debate the week before the election, and then Reagan cleans Carter's clock, and then it's a landslide. Like, that was. My reporting suggests that was the motivation behind the early debate. And I can tell you, people at debate prep were calling people the day of the debate, and they basically were like, debate prep went fine.

Like, b minus, like, he was fine. But they basically were like, it'll be okay. And they were shocked. I mean, some of them at least say they were shocked, because even if he had had moments like that in other settings, he hadn't had moments like that in the debate prep. Help us get into the minds of those, like, maybe Jill Biden or maybe the president himself that are saying, we can win, not only are we gonna stay in the race, like, we can win the presidency.

Barry Weiss
Is it coming from a sincere belief that he is the only man, as you know, this was sort of the unofficial campaign slogan in 2020, that he is the only person that can defeat Trump. Or is it something more craven? And I can't help but think of the COVID of Vogue where you have Jill Biden in this really beautiful white tuxedo dress. If people haven't checked it out, she looks great. But the pull quote is like, we will decide our future.

And you kind of take a step back, and you're like, but aren't you public servants? Isn't the goal for us to decide your future? So help us understand, Alex, you've done so much reporting on this family and on this White House. What is driving their desire to stay in the race, because you could imagine that if you care about your legacy and you care about, you know, the legacy of Biden being, as he would put it, you know, I saved democracy from Donald Trump. You could imagine that logic being extended to, I'm now going to step aside to make room for a younger candidate that can defeat Donald Trump and save democracy.

So what's going on in their minds? Okay, so separate those out. First of all, the tuxedo dress that Jill Biden was wearing cost $4,990. So I hope it looked good. And it definitely created a lot of feelings among many Biden staffers to see that cover out there.

Alex Thompson
I asked Jill Biden's office, obviously, they'd planned this, like, months in advance, but I asked her office, I was like, did you ask them if maybe you could delay the digital publishing of this cover story, like, a week? You know, and they just didn't answer. And the reason I sort of hone in on that, I think you were right to hone in on that, is it did make some people question their motives. Yeah. You know, Jill Biden, for most of their marriage and most of his political career, was a very reluctant political spouse.

And she has emerged, especially the last two years and especially just last two weeks, as an incredibly enthusiastic spouse. And in the vote covers, she's had three vote covers in four years. That's as many as Michelle Obama had in eight and three more than Melania ever had, Melania Trump ever had. So there is some questioning within Biden world on the motives. Do they like the life?

I think it's sort of key to your question. Like, are they basically, you know, convincing themselves they're the only ones that can beat Trump because they like the life? And I haven't talked to them. I don't know the answer. But there are definitely some people within the binorbit that, especially after that vote cover and the Annie Lebowitz photo shoot and just in general, sort of like, you know, her being so gung ho on the reelection that have wondered that.

On the other question, I mean, there is a compelling case he made, believe it or not, like, I have not heard a compelling case that Joe Biden would be mentally fit to serve as president in 2028, which is what he's trying to do. I have heard a compelling case that Joe Biden can still actually win this, win this election because there are tens of millions of people in this country that would vote for Joe Biden at 110 years old over Donald Trump. That is sort of the nature of the Trump polarization effect. And so you could see how they would still convince themselves they can still win this race. He's beaten before.

And, you know, Kamala Harris isn't as popular. But you know that this whole, I actually think that, like, some of the Kamala Harris discourse has actually been a little unfair to her, or at least like a little bit too not critical of Biden because the Biden folks are like, well, she can't win. And it's like you picked her. I mean, like, you know, that was your choice. So I don't think, anyway, that's a little, that's a very long word.

Vomit answer. Well, let's talk about Kamala. Actually. It's a perfect transition. Let's say he were to drop out of the race, could do it, by the way, could hand her the presidency now also.

Barry Weiss
But let's decide. He just, let's not go there. Let's just decide. He decides to drop out of the race. Would Kamala be the nominee in that case?

What are you hearing from your sources? Where does she fit into all of this and what does she want? Because anytime I'm seeing a negative leak, I'm thinking, is this Kamala Harris or people around her? Obviously. It's interesting.

Alex Thompson
I think Kamala Harris is basically hugging Joe Biden as tightly as possible because she knows that if he withdraws and says the path of least resistance for the Democratic Party, the least messy thing to do is make her the nominee, then she makes, you know, she finds some sort of midwestern white guy as her, like, running mate Josh Shapiro. Or you take, like, you know, astronaut Senator Mark Kelly, you know, and then you just go forward from there and you avoid this, like, incredible, messy convention fight. I guess I would say, like, if Joe Biden were to withdraw from the race tomorrow, she has the inside track. It would not be a given. Even if Joe Biden says, I want my delegates to vote for her, they are not obligated to vote for her.

So she would be the overwhelming favorite. It's also unclear who would challenge her, but does someone go for it and just dare and take their chance? But she would be the overwhelming favorite in part because I think people don't want a messy process, given Trump has been the great democratic unifier in a lot of ways. And I think she would not be given it. She would have to overcome some hurdles.

Barry Weiss
Ok, let's talk about the broader picture in the democratic party right now because a lot of the sort of noise is not just happening from these leaks that are coming from the White House, but they're happening from the party itself. There was a Bloomberg headline today that I read, and perhaps you've had, had access to this letter that talked about a number of House Democrats circulating a letter, and it said dozens of them were looking at this letter demanding that Biden withdraw from the race. First of all, have you seen that letter? I haven't. What do you know about it?

Alex Thompson
I mean, I know that there are tons of conversations. I mean, like, if you want to use the metaphor of the dam breaking, the dam is not broken, but every single hour there are more cracks in it. And there are some Democrats that feel that they would rather jump all together than just one at a time. And then you don't just have a crack, you have a fissure. And there are definitely those conversations going on right now.

And again, it goes beyond, at this point, a lot of those House Democrats. It is actually, it's not even for them. For some of them, it's not even really about stopping Trump. I mean, they don't want Trump to win, but at this point, they're worried about Joe Biden hurting them and costing them. Like there is a real possibility.

Barry Weiss
I mean, look at Bob Casey. That's my home state of Pennsylvania. Right. Senator Bob Casey. Dave McCormick, who's running against him, is already cutting ads of Bob Casey insisting that Biden's completely there.

He's sharp as attack. He's basically doing handstands. And the ad is unbelievably compelling because it basically says Bob Casey knew and lied to you. And every single one of those incumbents is going to have to answer for that and beyond, just like the incumbents. I mean, there's a good, we haven't even really gotten through the weeds here of the initial sort of, like, crisis to really probe people that kept insisting publicly that he was completely there all the time and asked them to answer for it.

Alex Thompson
And, you know, it's going to be a theme the entire election, even if Biden is not the nominee. So, yeah, I mean, at this point, there is like a self preservation going on among Democrats beyond just stopping Trump from winning. By the time this conversation airs tonight, Biden will be holding a meeting, a call with democratic governors. What do you know about that? And what's the message not just in that call, but more generally that he's going with?

Barry Weiss
Because frankly, there have been just a series of excuses, spin justifications, explanations that have happened since Thursday night, ranging from he had a cold, he had a bad night. Ok, I'm good, but I'm only good. Between ten and four, as you reported. Like, what, what's the latest talking point? What is Biden in the White House more generally?

How are they selling this to people at this point? Because to me, it's like a boat that has 10,000 holes in it and they're just trying to put their fingers in all of them and stop the flooding. Yeah. I mean, you even for, you forgot the other excuse, which is that he was like, traveling across the world. Right?

Of course. Of course. But even though he had been back in the United States for like twelve days before the debate started, and he was down basically at Camp David with no public events for the entire week before the debate. So the excuses also, you notice that, like, Joe Biden really has never even said that he had a cold. And that was only something that they told reporters about an hour into the debate.

Alex Thompson
So, like, you know, they are all over the place with trying to explain what happened in that debate. And I think the reason for, I mean, part of that is because there is confusion, there's disorganization, there is infighting over the fallout. But also I think, like, ultimately, like, there is no good explanation is not solved by messaging. You know, it just is. There have been so many sort of delicious reports out about donors sort of frantically calling each other, texting each other between Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket all the way to the Hamptons and Aspen, freaking out.

Barry Weiss
You see, like, a lot of boldface names mentioned in these stories. There was a detail about Rob Reiner in Los Angeles screaming at a television and Jane Fonda on the couch with tears in her eyes. What do you know about how these donors, especially these mega donors, have been reacting since Biden's performance on Thursday night? Where, where do they sit right now? It depends.

Alex Thompson
There are definitely, there's definitely a constituency that's, like, steady as she goes. He's probably the nominee. Like, you know, we'll cut the check. It's not ideal, whatever. That being said, there is also a huge group of people that feel lied to and they are pissed.

There's no other way. They are so mad at the White House and all of the campaign aides and Biden validators that told them, oh, you know, you know, I know he's speaking for Mattelo prompter at his fundraisers. You know, it's fine. Like, I know he's repeated the same story word for word twice a few minutes apart. It's fine.

Like, there were people that were spending more time with Joe Biden that were telling these skeptical donors he's great. He's fine. You like, don't believe your eyes. And they are mad. Well, there was a great quote that I just read today from Ari Emanuel, the super agent heads Wme, and he said, he gave us a bunch of malarkey and I'm really pissed.

Barry Weiss
We should all be really pissed. I mean, and, you know, the interesting thing is, as you know, our Emanuel's brother is Biden's ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, who worked with Joe Biden when he was chief of staff to Barack Obama. So I don't know for sure, but I have to imagine that he at least gave his brother a heads up that he was going to say that. I think our Emanuel, I know our Emanuel was speaking for a lot of donors. And this is the thing is like there's going to be some donors that just completely bail on Joe Biden that are out and don't want to get another call from Jeffrey Katzenberg talking about how, how everything's fine and they're just out.

Is he still sticking to the everything's fine? Is he in the everything's fine camp? Katzenberg? I have not spoken to Jeffrey since the debate, but I have not seen any sort of mea culpa. But they are frantically trying to get things back together.

Alex Thompson
And like, I talked to a lot of people on the donor call that they convened. I think it was last night or the night before, sort of lost track of dates. But I, and the message was like, everything is still fine. Like, we know is a bad, you know, it's a bad night. It's a bad night.

It's a bad night. Bad 24 hours. And so the bigger problem, though, for the Biden people is not really the donors that leave. I mean, it's bad, but the real problem is the donors that stay but basically only give a fraction of what they were going to give. Right.

Barry Weiss
Right. And don't hustle and tell their friends and try to get checks from their friends friends. And that's a potential crisis for the campaign. Speaking of Rahm Emanuel and Obama, you know, the Obama sort of wing of the Democratic Party is just such an important power center. And I wonder how, if at all, are they sort of figuring into these discussions?

Are they quietly reassuring people? Are they quietly telling people to put pressure on the Bidens? What do you know about them and their motivations? I mean, you know, I think, I mean, I know, like, Barack Obama has been like, well, that was worrying, you know, but, you know, and, but as someone that's like, gone so deep into, like, the Biden Obama relationship. The thing to understand, there's this, like, I think there is this concept out there.

Alex Thompson
I've seen it on Twitter that, like, Barack Obama is going to go to Joe Biden, be like, you can't do it, man. Now, that could happen. And it's possible it could work. But I, knowing their relationship, there is a strong possibility that that would completely backfire, that the only way you could really ensure that Joe Biden will stay in the race is having Barack Obama come and say, you have to leave. Because the Biden Obama relationship, in some ways, has, in many ways, has never been the same since 2015 when Biden felt that Obama chose Hillary over him.

Now, Obama, people sort of dispute that, whatever, but Biden feels that way. And that cuts to your core as, like a, as a person. And it's just so, you know, the Obamas are incredibly influential. Like, you know, I know there's also this halcyon dream of Michelle Obama. They're going to swap in Michelle Obama.

Michelle Obama hates politics. I mean, maybe, like, somehow she'd be, but she hates politics. But I did find it amusing. Reuters did pull her after the debate, and she was by far the most competitive Democrat. She trounced Trump by eleven points, 50% to 39%.

Barry Weiss
Alex, I don't know if you're a betting man or not. I've never gambled. But if you had to bet right now, July 3, Joe Biden drops out of the race versus stays in. What's your bet? This is based on your reporting?

Alex Thompson
Yeah, I'm just being clear. Like, I'm not predicting anything, but based on the reporting, I've heard it all. I mean, honestly, it's just, like, it's even odds. It's 50 50. Like, and I cannot believe that history could potentially hinge on a George Stephanopoulopoulos interview.

But. But this is where we are. We are, we are, we are in the matrix. We are in whatever, whatever creation of the machines, that version of this timeline. Alex, this is your World Series.

Barry Weiss
This is your. I can tell from your eyes you've been up for days. Okay, if, let's say, he does drop out, okay, who is most likely to replace him on the ballot? Kamala Harris. Okay.

Alex Thompson
And then I think she would probably pick, you know, some of the name. So I already mentioned Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would be one. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly would be another person. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, who was a attorney general alongside Kamala Harris when they, when she was ag. You know, those are a few of the names that you know, and Andy Bashir, the democratic governor of Kentucky.

Those are some of the, you know, the, the parlor game among Democrats who, these are people outside of the orbit, don't know what's going to happen. But the, the parlor game of who would Kamala pick as her vp has already begun. Okay. Just before I came in here, I saw that Jim Clyborne, a top ally of Joe Biden, told the press that if the president does step aside, he would want to see a, quote, mini primary ahead of the DNC. What does that mean exactly?

I don't know. And he doesn't know. I mean, like, mini primary. I mean, there's, it would be decided by a few thousand DNC delegates. And I guess maybe he's saying, like, maybe there should be a debate.

Maybe there should be sort of like a series of town halls, you know, but there is, there's, we don't know what it would look like. But I do think Kamala Harris would definitely have at least one challenger. Now, is the challenger threatening enough that she would deign to debate them or do a town hall? That's sort of the next question. But, you know, it would be interesting.

I think it would basically be a lot of, you know, a lot of television, tv town hall debate sort of step for a mini primary. You reported months ago about how several democratic governors and senators have sort of been jockeying to boost their own national profiles and sort of waiting in the wings as potential Biden successors. People like Gretchen Whitmer. Her name's getting mentioned a lot right now. Gavin Newsom with the shiny teeth who would never think about running for the presidency.

Barry Weiss
He protests so much. People like JB Pritzker, Roe Khandhe, Hana, like any of those figure in or. They'Re all gonna, they're, they're all gonna think about it. Josh Shapiro to Roy Cooper. Phil Murphy, the New Jersey governor.

Alex Thompson
Mark Kelly, senator from Arizona. That mentioned before. I mean, you know, I mean, it could be anyone. I mean, like, I mean, people have thrown this out there. I think it's very, very unlikely.

But, like, you know, does Hillary Clinton, like, be like, think about it. Never say die. Never say die, Alex. Yeah. Like, just for a hot sec, does she just, like, think about it?

You know, I mean, it'll be open season in the second Kamala stumbles. You would see the vacuum filled, unburdened. By what has been, of course. So if Biden drops out, there's the question of the money. I think he's rate has like a $92 million war chest.

Barry Weiss
Maybe it's 100 million now. Like, what happens? That money can it. Does it just automatically go to Kamala Harris? Does how does it work?

Alex Thompson
This is where my understanding and people that are listening should definitely triple check this. But my understanding of it is that. So there's two things going on. The 90 million figure that you're talking about is only the Biden Harris figure. Now, they've been fundraising alongside the DNC.

So the DNC also has its own huge stockpile of about 100 plus million dollars, and that would go to whoever the nominee is. But the Biden Harris money, I believe the only person that could get that money would be Kamala Harris. And if you want to transfer it to somebody else, you have to offer refunds. Like, offer, like, donors refunds, because it's like, well, you just gave to this. You can't just transfer it to anybody.

So, yes, I mean, you could transfer the majority of the money that Biden has raised. You can transfer to who, whoever the nominee is. But there is still tens of millions of dollars that you probably could not transfer to anyone except for Kamala Harris. More with Alex Thompson after the break. Stay with us.

Barry Weiss
Okay, so there's the problem of this race, which we've been talking about, but there's also the problem of right now. Like, one of the things beyond shock, you know, laughter, fear, humiliation, shame, all of the feelings that all of us felt I, over those 90 minutes on Thursday night, by the time I went to bed, another thing I was feeling was just genuine fear about what could happen right now. I mean, there's two hot wars already raging. This is the man that carries around the nuclear football. Like, there were conversations I was seeing about, you know, with serious people talking about invoking the 25th amendment.

Like, what, what are you hearing about that? Like, how is this person, the president right now? And is that something that's being openly discussed in democratic circles? I mean, the 25th amendment is not being openly discussed. And if it's being discussed in the places that matter, I'm not aware of it right now.

Alex Thompson
But that being said, I think you honed in on what the real story of the debate was. The real story of the debate was not that Joe Biden might now lose to Donald Trump. The real story was like, is this guy, I mean, even among Biden aides was like, is this guy okay? Is he, you know, because you have to be like, if there had been an attack and Joe Biden is acting like that, you know, what, what does that look like? And I think his mental fitness to serve ended up, in my mind, is like the real story of that debate.

And a lot of Biden people, you know, I think were like, maybe you can't do this job even a year more. And to your point, maybe even seven months more. And, you know, I remember, you know, some people said after, you know, the next day, you know, he does this big rally in North Carolina, has really high energy and he's like, and he's great. I mean, it was a good, good performance for an, a one year old. And, you know, sort of the answer was like, the problem is that the Biden that you saw in the debate exists at all because it's potentially in the eyes of, in the eyes of a lot of voters, is potentially disqualifying that a president could ever be that lost.

Barry Weiss
One of the arguments that's sort of gotten trotted out a lot since Thursday is the idea that, well, yeah, he's out of it sometimes. Yeah, he can't really be sharp after 04:00 p.m. but it doesn't really matter because the people around him are competent and the presidency is not really a guy so much as an office. Right. The idea of the presidency is a group that's now getting.

What do you think of that? I mean, Obama's DHS secretary, Jay Johnson, who was in the mix to be in the Biden cabinet during the transition, they said that on morning Joe yesterday, which he's like, you know, if Biden has April Haynes and Samantha Power and Gina Raimondo around him, I'd definitely still vote for him over Trump. And I mean, as a reporter, I find that argument, like, really offensive and especially coming from, like, the crowd that is telling us all the time that they are the pro democracy party. And then you're just going to have all these unelected, we're going to have Jeff Zience and Jake Sullivan running foreign policy in the domestic policy arms of the government. That argument to me, which Democrats have made, I remember one Democrat, and this was a while ago when they were just, and they always say, like, he has good people around him, you know, and I was like, I don't care, like, as a reporter, I don't care, like, they're not elected.

Right. But there are definitely some, like, you know, DC people I've heard the argument articulated, including by reporters, that, you know, you know, it would probably be fine. Alex, a few last questions. Is there anything at all Biden could do right now to staunch the bleeding and regain public confidence? Like, what would he have to do so I would.

Alex Thompson
So I'll tweak your question a bit and be like, I have no idea, because I'm not a political treasure. But I'll tell you what he would have to do to regain sort of like, in terms of my skepticism that he can do the job that I think is, like, completely merited from his performance. The only thing that he could do to potentially restore that is he has to go everywhere like this, is he has done the least amount of interviews with reporters than any president in decades. He has to not just sit down with George Stephanopoulos in a recorded interview that could then be edited. He has to do live interviews with every single anchor.

He has to go and do an hour interview at the New York Times, with the Wall Street Journal, with the Washington Post, with me.

He hasn't even sat down with Reuters. I mean, this is like, it's just sort of weird to me. Like, he's gotta prove that he's with it. And the fact that he hasn't, you know, I think that would be the only way, at least in my mind, that you would sort of see a shift in the, at least my coverage. And I think a lot of other reporters coverage.

Barry Weiss
I think one of the most striking things about, like, if you think about the big, big stories that we're gonna remember from the past few insane days and from Thursday night, I think one of those stories, and I don't think this is too navel gazey, is a media story. Right? How was it that the press corps in this country missed or ignored one of the biggest stories of our lifetime, which is that the president might not be fully there? And how is it that something that was framed as misinformation, as disinformation, as, you know, Trump simping, as whatever you want to call it, went from being misinformation to common knowledge over the space of 90 minutes on Thursday night? Alex, like, explain that to us.

Was this an intentional lack of curiosity? Was this not wanting to look? Was it something darker than that? Or was it genuinely that many people that are meant to report every day on the most powerful man in the world got successfully spun by the people around him? I think there's elements of truth in a bunch of what you said.

Alex Thompson
I think it's fair to say, and I have, that there was a lack of curiosity among some. I also think that the White House was very effective in their comms operation of gaslighting, deflecting, denying things that were true. And, you know, I mean, like, the thing you mentioned, like the ten to four thing. This is an example, like the ten to four thing. Like, I reported that a year ago, actually.

Like, I just re upped. I, like, literally, my boss was like, you need to re up that detail after the debate because people didn't remember it and people never followed it. So just re up it and everyone's gonna be like, oh, this is new. It felt new. Yeah.

Barry Weiss
So that's a great example. When you first reported it, was there no reaction or was there a backlash reaction? I mean, there's certainly, I mean, the White House went very public, very aggressively. You know, it's interesting. Like, they obviously are very aggressive during the process.

Alex Thompson
But then there's this, you know, after the story is out, they were very publicly aggressive, tried to discredit, pointing to some of my other stories and trying to discredit the information. And I bring that up because the times did a little bit of a follow up a few months later, but then it had a lot of Trump stuff in it. I do think there was a lack of curiosity when it came to the age thing. And I think there was also, in some cases, a hesitancy of feeling like you were going to feed into what I think at the beginning was a bit of a, at least a bit of a bad faith narrative from some right wing places about the severity of his limitations. And I think, you know, I was really struck by this quote, and otherwise, I thought it was, like, compelling.

But, like, Jill Abramson wrote this. Jill Abramson, the former, former executive editor of the New York Times. Thank you. Yes. And she wrote this to Semaphore, but there was one line in there where she was like, I think some people didn't want to write about it because they were scared of helping Trump.

I get that. And I was really surprised that she said, like, I get that. So that, as if it's understandable that people would not, would, would not report something because they thought it might be to the political help of Trump. I have no reporters articulated that to me. Maybe because they know that I would not be, like, a sympathetic ear to that.

But given that she said it, it seems like there might be some reporters out there that do feel that way. I don't think you can overstate how much social pressure is brought to bear when, on people that were using their eyes to notice things. My phone would blow up any time we would, you know, even in Nelli's sort of Friday humorous column, notice that the president was, didn't seem to be, like, fully there in these clips. And we would get texts from people saying, you know, this is misinformation. When are you gonna do the same thing about Trump?

Barry Weiss
Why are you just, like, slagging on Biden? Are you doing that to help Trump? And it's like, well, no. Our job is, as journalists, is to notice things and help make sense of the things we're seeing in the world. And I think that maybe the strongest example of this backlash that wasn't happening in private, it was happening in public, was when the journal, about a month ago, came out with a big story.

They talked to 25 different people, and it noticed the thing that we all got to see on Thursday night. And the response to the reporters and to the journal itself was really overwhelming. And I wondered if you want to comment on that. Alex. Yeah, I mean, I know Annie Lynskey was the lead byline on that story.

Alex Thompson
And I called her that day and I was like, told her I thought the response was bullshit because, and the thing that I found so funny about it was like, I think the headline was like, behind closed doors, biden shows signs of slipping. And I was like, behind closed doors? Like, we've all seen it. Like, it's just, it's there. Like, like, and, you know, the thing that was really disappointing, I think some of it was predictable.

The fact that the journal, the fact that the journals only on the record quotes came from republicans gave democrats a very easy way in this, in this politicized environment to attack the story and try to undermine it. And I think that was predictable. And maybe there were ways they could have blunted that. But the thing that I was disappointed on is that I feel like I'm not going to name names, but I feel like some reporters also helped out with trying to undermine or at least sort of, you know, give people pause or suggest that maybe it wasn't completely on the up and up, your reporters, and I don't know their motives. Maybe they were sucking up to the White House.

Maybe they really believed the Wall Street Journal was wrong. But I thought, I didn't think it was. I was surprised even in this environment. And I think, you know, in retrospect, you know, I think you can, I believe that there is a, you can rationalize, I think you can forgive some reporters for not covering it as aggressively up to a certain point. And I think the point in which I don't think it's very easily explainable is after the, her report, that is the, which robert her was the special counsel, looked into Biden's and, you know, handling of classified documents, wrote in his report that Biden had presented himself as like an old man with a bad memory.

Once the her transcript came out, it was clear that Biden had repeated mental lapses throughout the interview. And the headlines instead were very nuanced and like very muddled. And her report was like the first big, like, hey, guys, like, they're like, something is happening. And then the second one was the Wall Street Journal story in terms of like big things, you know? So when reporters say that they were, that they were shocked at Biden's, at Biden's performance at the debate, you know, I think there were warnings.

Barry Weiss
I want to end on one last thing. I'm just looking at Twitter and Meghan McCain tweeted this, when all of this is over, I hope there's some real journalistic soul searching and a Pulitzer Prize for Alex Thompson at Axios for being the only mainstream political reporter in the entire country who reported on Biden's health decline while everyone else looked the other way. I don't know, Megan. That's nice fur to say. Well, Alex Thompson, we'll look forward to the Pulitzers next year.

And in the meantime, we're going to continue to read all of your unbelievable scoops. Where can people follow you? Alex on X. It's Alex. T h o m p.

Alex Thompson
So Alex Thompson, without the son, thank you so. Much for making the time. We really appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me on. This was fun.

Barry Weiss
Thanks for listening. The past few days have been absolutely bananas. This story is not letting up and we're going to continue to follow it both here on honestly and at the free press. So if you believe in the kind of journalism we do, fearless, independent, dogged, pursuing the truth even when it's politically inconvenient, support us. And the way to do it is by going to the Free Press's website at the fp.com comma t dash e dash p.com and becoming a subscriber today.

We'll see you next time.

Will President Biden Drop Out?

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1: Opening Remarks

2: Interview with Alex Thompson

3: Media's Role and Public Perception

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