Lurch in the left: France's election shock

This episode delves into the surprising outcomes of France's recent election, highlighting a shift in political power and the implications for governance.

1. The New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance, unexpectedly became the largest parliamentary block.
2. Strategic candidate withdrawals by Macron’s centrists and the left influenced the election's outcome.
3. Marine Le Pen's National Rally faced a significant setback, finishing third despite earlier expectations.
4. France faces political instability due to its unfamiliarity with coalition governance.
5. The episode highlights the broader impact of the election results on Macron’s international standing and future political dynamics in France.

1. Introduction to France's Election Shock

Overview of the surprising results of the French election, emphasizing the shift from right to left in parliament. Sophie Pedder: "The result of this French election has taken everybody by surprise."

2. Analysis of Political Strategies

Discussion on the tactical voting strategies that led to the left's success and the centrists' survival. Jason Palmer: "What happened between rounds one and two was a tactical effort by both Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and Menonchon's left-wing alliance to withdraw candidates."

3. Implications for Governance

Insights into the challenges of forming a government in a hung parliament scenario and the cultural aversion to coalition building in France. Sophie Pedder: "France does not have a political culture of coalition forming... that is going to make it incredibly difficult."

1. Engage in informed voting: Understand the strategic importance of each vote and how alliances can impact election outcomes.
2. Stay informed about political processes: Knowing how governments are formed can help anticipate and understand political shifts.
3. Recognize the impact of international perceptions: Consider how domestic politics can influence a country’s international standing.
4. Support transparent governance: Advocate for clarity and transparency in political maneuvers to ensure fair representation.
5. Promote political education: Encourage educational programs that explain the electoral process and the importance of each citizen’s vote.

A tactical ploy to diminish the chances for Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally has worked—a surprise result that puts the left in front, but no party in charge. Despite sporting passions in Africa, continental leagues have fizzled; a passion for basketball may soon change that (9:25). And remembering Ángeles Flórez Peón, the last militiawoman who defended Spain’s Second Republic (17:26).

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Jean-Luc Melanchon, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen

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Jason Palmer
The Economist hello and welcome to the intelligence from the Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Africans are as sport mad as anyone else, but despite plenty of enthusiasm and sporting talent, pan african sport leagues just haven't got off the ground yet. We look at a new effort that aims to capture the big and growing interest in basketball. And at the start of Spain's civil war, before the nationalists united under Franco, Angeles Flores peon fought for the Republicans and spent 15 years in jail for it. Our obituary's editor reflects on a life dedicated to preserving the memories of that tumultuous time.

First up, though, this year, so full of elections the world over, just keeps providing surprises. Frances first round of voting at the end of last month was topped by the national rally, the hard right party of Marine Le Pen. But after this weekends second round, the bloc, led by the national rally, was bumped down to third place. President Emmanuel Macrons crew of centrists came in second. And in the lead, an alliance of the french left called the new Popular Front, led by the standard bearer of the hard left, Jean Luc Melanchon.

In Paris, the bloc's supporters were clearly thrilled, but it's not a clear cut win for anyone. The result of this french election has taken everybody by surprise. Sophie Petter is the economist's Paris bureau chief. Not a single party has gained a majority. We've got a hung parliament.

Sophie Pedder
And the biggest block, to everyone's astonishment, is the left wing alliance, the new Popular Front. So the big question today is, who on earth now is going to govern France? And so how has that landed in France? What is the feeling from the different parties? Well, the first person to appear on television last night was, of course, Jean Luc Melanchon.

No sooner had the results come in than he was there saying that this was a clear victory for the left, that the left would now form a government and that it would implement nothing but its program. That is quite a radical program of left wing measures, and that's where the left is today. They think that they are entitled now to form the next government. Even without a majority centrist party, it has lost a lot of seats, that's for sure. But it's held onto more of them than it thought it would.

And there was a sense of relief among deputies that I spoke to last night that this was not the calamity that some people had expected. So they have become the second biggest bloc in parliament. They hold a sort of position as a pivot between the left and the hard right. For the hard right. That's Marine Le Pen's national rally.

This has been a huge disappointment. I mean, this was a party that in the last few days had been talking about who it would name as the prime minister, who it would name as the finance minister. It was preparing to govern and it's actually ended up in third place. This was a shock to a lot of their deputies who were all ready for taking power. They've improved their score for sure.

They're going to hold a big block of seats in parliament, well up from the 88 they held in the outgoing National assembly. But this is not the victory that they had hoped for. And so there's a lot of disappointment on the hard right, not only that. They had hoped for, but that everyone had expected. After the first round of the election, what changed?

Jason Palmer
What happened? What happened between rounds one and two was a tactical effort by both Emmanuel Macron centrist alliance and Menonchon's left wing alliance to withdraw candidates in order to make sure that the anti RN vote, that's the vote against Marine Le Pen's party, was not split. And this was a difficult thing to achieve. It involved constituency by constituency negotiations, looking at which party came second, which party came third, and seeing if each of the third place candidates, whether they're on the left or whether they're in the centre, were prepared to stand down. Sometimes it involved Macron actually having to call his own candidates and say, please step down, let the left wing alliance go forward and try and beat the RN.

Sophie Pedder
But this tactical vote in the end paid off. And it's to the extreme irritation and indignation of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Bardella actually called it an alliance of dishonorous.

And I think that although this has paid off in the short term, it is going to store up some resentment among voters on the hard right who feel that they were deprived of seats, deprived of a majority because of a stitch up by parties in Paris. So on to the question that you say everyone is asking in France. Today, what happens next? Well, under the french constitution, the president names the prime minister, but that's pretty much all it says. It doesn't explicitly lay out what the conditions are for doing that.

Political convention is that the president will name the leader of the biggest party or biggest bloc. But in the left wing alliances case, they haven't yet agreed who should be the leader of that bloc. There is a four party alliance that makes up this new popular front, and they disagree on a lot of things, and one of them is who they should be represented by. So that's the first thing they're going to have to do. And then it really is up to President Macron to decide whether or not he wants to give them a chance to form a coalition.

The left thinks that they can govern without a coalition. They've been saying this morning that they think they should be able to run a minority government. That's not the way the presidency sees it. When I spoke to somebody at the Elysee last night, they were making it very clear that Macron does not see that this is a clear result for the left, that this is rather a hung parliament with nobody, with a majority and would like to see whether there's a chance of forming some kind of coalition government instead. But that is part of this uncertainty that is going to now mark the next few days, weeks and possibly even longer.

Gabriel et al. The french prime minister, is heading today to the Elysees, to the presidency to hand in his resignation. He'll probably stay on as a caretaker government, at least while these talks continue. But what happens after that remains anyone's guess. The question, though, is whether any kind of stable government can be pulled together when you're starting from these ingredients.

Well, yes, that's exactly the point, Jason, because on paper, when you look at the different parties that make up the new popular front, there are certainly moderate parties in there, the socialists or the Greens, who could theoretically work with Macron centrists, but they don't see it quite like that. There is a lot of disagreement and distrust between the blocs, and it's very difficult politically to envisage the two sides working with each other. Basic problem is that France does not have a political culture of coalition forming. If you look at other countries in Europe, like Germany or Italy or the Netherlands, these countries are used to drawing up coalition agreements. That is not how it works in France.

France has completely lost that culture of coalition building at national level. And that is going to make it incredibly difficult, I think, for any of these parties to work out a way of governing together, at least in the short term. We had talked a lot since Mister Macron called this election about the gamble that it was. Hes come out better than certainly we thought he would after the first round. But all told, would you call this a gamble thats gone wrong?

Well, in one sense, his gamble has not paid off. Thats to say, he thought he could create a new dynamic after the european elections and he thought his government might be able to survive and his party might be able to build a majority. That has clearly not happened. But in another sense, the gamble has paid off for him. He has, in effect asked the french voters, do you really want Marine Le Pen's party to govern France?

And the answer has come back as a pretty clear no. Now the question I suppose next is how far this will damage him internationally and abroad. He's heading to the NATO summit shortly. He will be there with other world leaders, and I suspect there'll be a bit of a sigh of relief that he is not now the president of a country whose government is run by Marine Le Pen's party. But nonetheless, it's pretty chaotic in France right now.

I think that that will still leave him somewhat damaged as a result of this election, even if it's not nearly the calamity that many people had foreseen. Sophie, thanks very much for your time. Thanks, Jason. Always a pleasure.

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Jason Palmer
This is the atmosphere at a stadium in Senegal. You are probably picturing fans at a football match, but this is the sound of the Dhaka Arena, a 15,000 seat basketball stadium built in 2018. Last month it hosted one of the divisions of the new Basketball Africa League, which has just finished its fourth season. Pet Shaw Delawanda have done it. In their fourth attempt, their second final, they get themselves the crowns as champions of Africa.

It's the most ambitious attempt yet to build Africa's first continent wide professional sports league. Sport has been a powerful force in african identity and politics. Tom Gardner is an Africa correspondent for the Economist. But when it comes to the developing of the continent's sporting talent, and particularly football, it's been slow to take off. There is no high profile pan african league to speak of.

Tom Gardner
However, where football has failed, there is now hope that basketball, the basketball Africa league, the Baal, as it's called, may now succeed. So tell me more about the bow. The basic format of the bow is twelve national league champions from across the continent compete for a pan african title. They've divided the continent into three regional divisions, each with four teams. So you have the Nile, the Sahara, and the Kalahari conferences all competing for this pan african title.

It's been going now for four seasons, beginning in 2021. And it's the brainchild of the international basketball federation, that's the global governing body, and NBA Africa, the american league's regional subsidiary. So America's NBA is getting involved in Africa in the way that we've talked on the show before about getting involved in China. Globally, the business of sport is becoming much more competitive, so it pays to enter new markets to find new fans and players. The NBA has long been a kind of pioneer of that, as you say in China, in the two thousands, probably helped make basketball this world's second favorite sport, some say.

But this, however, is different because this is the first league outside North America that the NBA has run. It's also going further than it has in other parts of the world in terms of helping with the grassroots, you know, setting up youth training facilities, building courts and academies. I mean, the first african basketball academy is in Senegal, for instance. And as you say, ultimately this is a business decision, that the business is getting more competitive. Yes, exactly.

So that's why there is quite a lot of high level interest in the NBA's big Africa bet. The subsidiary has been valued at $1 billion when a private equity firm brought a stake in 2021. But you also have, for example, Barack Obama, former us president. He's a strategic partner. He bought a minority equity stake and sponsors like Nike, for example.

So, yeah, many people do see a big business opportunity here. I mean, Africa's sports market in general has been estimated to potentially reach $20 billion a year in revenue by 2025. I mean, it's $12 billion today. So there's plenty of room for growth. The bow.

President Ahmadou Gallophal told me that the sport could become a large source of domestic revenue for countries in Africa. The whole sports and entertainment space is very, very much untapped across Africa, and I think our league is starting to open eyes on the potential. So it's an enticing prospect for host countries like Senegal, like Rwanda. The NBA Africa, America's CEO, told me that injects about $5 million into a host country in a single week event. That includes spending by the ballot itself, but also guests, fans, teams, all of that.

So other african governments elsewhere are also taking note. So that's the story. The incentives from the outside. But it's still going to need fans on the inside of Africa, right, to take part in this. Do you think the enthusiasm is there?

Yes. I mean, I went to the Dakar arena in Senegal, which is a showcase of the kind of investments that some governments are pouring into the sport. It cost more than 100 million. And there I watched a Sahara conference playoff game between APR, which is a team from Rwanda, and as Duan from Senegal. And, yeah, I met lots of excited fans.

The crowd was in high spirits. The presidents of Rwanda and Senegal both turned up to watch as well. And I think basketball in Africa has a lot of potential to bloom. It's popular in a way, because you can put a hoop up almost anywhere, right? It's a very low cost game in that regard.

It's also not associated with former colonizers in Africa, like cricket or rugby, and lots of Africans. Increasingly, a large number of Africans are in the NBA itself. I mean, 50 were born there or have one parent from Africa currently. To give you an example, the NBA's most valued player last year was Joel Embiid from Cameroon. He's a huge star, and as a result, that encourages more fans on the continent to pay attention, to aspire as well to those kind of heights.

One fan I spoke to outside the Dakar arena told me, football first, basketball second, is what he said. He said, so many young people here in Senegal dream of playing in the NBA or the European Championship, but surely. From the standpoint of the regional league, they might like to keep all of that talent on the continent, no? Yes. I think one of their explicit goals, really is to stem what is sometimes called the muscle drain, which is afflicted football in particular, talent leaving the continent for european shores.

Amma Dugallophal, the bao president, told me very clearly that he wants young, talented Africans to be able to remain on the continent, playing the game for local crowds. So a young player, no matter where, what part of the continent they are from, they can have access to the game, start playing the sports, if they are talented enough, ultimately play professionally right here on the continent without having to leave. That is an ambitious goal. But there are a number of african players who've already begun returning from european clubs to play in the bow, and certainly the limits the bow puts on the number of foreigners each team can field. That's designed to encourage local talent and nurture local basketball ecosystems.

So the hope is these talents won't need to leave. And so what's your view? Can all of these goals be met? Do you think that the ecosystems can be built in the way that everybody is hoping for here? I think there are still a number of hurdles.

Attendance is up on previous seasons, but many games are still played to halt empty arenas. Ultimately, the NBA is a business. It can build big stadiums, but it needs to have the talent and the fan base on the continent as well. And I think for that, there needs to be significant investment in the basic infrastructure of the game courts, coaches. That's what's really needed.

And when that is sorted, then, yes, I think basketball could, to conifer, be a slam dunk in Africa. Tom, thanks very much for your time. Thank you. JaSON.

Ann Rowe
Angeles Flores Peon did not carry. A rifle Ann Rowe is the economist's obituaries editor. She wasn't one of those women in aprons and overalls who stood with guns at their shoulders and motivated the Mendez to go out and fight to defend the second Spanish Republic. Instead, what she mostly carried as a teenager when she was going out to the front lines in Oviedo was a huge pot of stew, which she and her comrades had cooked up in the kitchens to help the soldiers who were fighting there.

When she came to tell her story, and she did it continuously, she spoke first of all about the miserable state of life in the 1930s in Asturias, which is a northerly province coal mining place on the coast. She was a miner's daughter. Her mother was a midwife. Her two parents were very much of the left. And the reason why was because the life of minors was especially hard in this place.

They were kept in the grip of the bosses, who paid them very little. They had to come home filthy and wash in their houses because there were no showers. The family very rarely had enough to eat, and she herself had to bring in money after her parents separated. So at the age of nine, she was already being a housemaid in other people's houses, scrubbing floors. But then came a wonderful day when her mother took her hand and tucked her into the street, where there were great cries of happiness and flags waving.

And this was the day that the second republic was proclaimed in 1931. And this scene of public jubilation had a tremendous effect on her, and it made her a die hard socialist for the rest of her life. But she didn't plunge into activism right away. That happened three years later. When her elder brother Antonio was caught up in a strike by miners.

It was a collection of communists and anarchists.

Her brother was actually a communist. And the civil guard in Asturias opened fire on them and shot him dead. That made her feel that she wanted to become an active socialist in the cause. She joined the young socialists. And she also joined a theater troupe that was taking plays, promoting socialism around the villages of Asturias.

Trying to create a popular consciousness for the left. The work she did feeding the troops on the front line and working in the hospital. Earned her a prison sentence. Because the nationalists took the region of Asturias fairly quickly. And she found that she was hauled up before a court.

It was only a 15 minutes trial. She was accused of militarist rebellion. And she was put in a women's prison. Where she said she was starved and humiliated. There were nuns who would come in and indoctrinate them, try to make them pray.

Because very few of them believed in God. And they would try and make them sing the fascist anthem and make the fascist salute.

So she put up with this for a while. In fact, her first sentence had been for life. Then it was reduced to 15 years.

And eventually she was let out on parole. But she was not the least inclined to change her political opinions. She worked as she could on the left. And in the end married a very active left wing miner. Who in the end had to flee the country in 1946.

And by 1948 she was able to follow him and went into exile. Hiding under an oilcloth in the bottom of a fishing boat. To get to France, she took her ten month old baby with her. They stayed in France a very long time. Trying to do what they could for left wing causes in Spain.

But they had 36 years of Franco's dictatorship to get through.

Her husband died, and he brought his ashes back to Spain. She was now allowed in. She was 85. But she immediately became a campaigner for socialism. And a voice for those who'd survived the civil war.

In general, she was very heartened by the country she came back to. She could see that it was much more secular. It was far freerhead. But she was not entirely sure that women's rights were secure. She was worried about the right to abortion.

She was worried that men still treated women badly.

She thought that women in general in the war. Had not been given a fair shake. That they hadn't been remembered for their bravery. And so that too, she talked about a good deal. But mostly she was insistent that Spain should not forget the civil war, no matter how difficult it was, no matter how painful it was to revisit that time.

Because she always said, a country that doesn't remember, a country that suppresses its history, is not a country or a people at all. It has no soul. In fact, it is nothing at all.

Jason Palmer
Ann Rowe on Angeles Flores Peon, who's died aged 105.

That's all for this episode of the intelligence. Let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch@podcastseconomist.com. we'll see you back here tomorrow.

Jon Favreau
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