Bibi blues: Israel's fraying consensus

This episode focuses on the escalating political and strategic tensions within Israel, particularly the criticisms and challenges faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding his handling of the conflict in Gaza.

1. Netanyahu faces unprecedented criticism from within his own cabinet for not having a post-war plan for Gaza.
2. The internal political strife is compounded by international pressures, including threats of arrest warrants for Israeli leaders by the International Criminal Court.
3. There is significant public discontent in Israel, with many calling for Netanyahu’s replacement.
4. The episode discusses potential strategies for Gaza's future governance, highlighting the challenges of reintegrating the Palestinian Authority.
5. The broader geopolitical dynamics include U.S. involvement in shaping a resolution, potentially influencing Netanyahu's political survival.

1: Political Turmoil in Israel

This chapter outlines the severe political challenges facing Netanyahu, including direct confrontations from his own ministers and growing international pressures. Key figures openly challenge his strategies, leading to a complex crisis.

• Yoav Gallant: "Mister Netanyahu’s indecision is, in essence, a decision that leads to a dangerous course."
• Benny Gantz: "Threatened to leave the government next month if there’s no postwar plan."

2: Strategic Deadlock

Discussion on the lack of a clear strategy for Gaza post-conflict, highlighting the divisions within the Israeli government and the potential repercussions of continued military actions without a political plan.

• Anshul Pfeffer: "Netanyahu won’t agree to having any serious discussion on the strategy for the day after in Gaza."

3: International Dynamics

Explores the international dimensions affecting Israel's policy decisions, including potential normalization with Saudi Arabia and the growing recognition of Palestine by European countries.

• Zanni Minton Beddoes: "The diplomatic pressure on Israel is growing internationally."

1. Understand the importance of post-conflict planning in maintaining long-term peace and stability.
2. Recognize the impact of internal political dynamics on national policy decisions.
3. Consider the international implications of domestic policies, especially in conflict zones.
4. Engage with diverse political opinions to foster more holistic and sustainable government strategies.
5. Stay informed about global political developments and their potential impacts on local governance.

Our editor-in-chief and Jerusalem correspondent pay a visit to Israel’s halls of power, finding that long-whispered dissent is spilling into the open. An Italian subsidy for green home improvements was ripe for abuse by design; the bill has now come due and it is enormous (14:28). And how “Bridgerton”, a sort-of period drama, has made string quartets fashionable again (21:00).

People

Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Benny Gantz

Companies

None

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

Zanni Minton Beddoes, Anshul Pfeffer

Content Warnings:

None

Heres the truth about AI is only as powerful as the platform its built into. ServiceNow puts AI to work for people across your business, removing friction and frustration for your employees, supercharging productivity for your developers, providing intelligent tools for your service agents to make customers happier, all built into a single platform you can use right now. Thats why the world works. With Servicenow. Visit servicenow.com aiforpeople.

Jason Palmer
The Economist hello and welcome to the intelligence from the Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Subsidies that partially cover the costs of energy efficient home renovations are one of those everyone wins situations. If those subsidies get the incentives right. Italy has not, and it's struggling to walk back the super bonus that's crippling its budgets. And the hit series Bridgerton positions itself as a modern period drama, a blend of old and new sensibilities. And thanks to some unexpected arrangements, it's made string quartets more fashionable than they have been in centuries.

First up, though it has been from any perspective, a terrible couple of weeks for the war in Gaza. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians sheltering in Rafa in southern Gaza have had to uproot again. Israel defense forces seized and shut the Rafa crossing into Egypt and have been ramping up what they have claimed is a limited operation there. In Israels halls of power, too, small skirmishes have grown swiftly bigger. For months, generals have grumbled that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not have a plan, or seem to want one for what will happen in Gaza after the war.

But on May 15, Joav Galant, the defense minister in Israels war cabinet, said the quiet part out loud.

He hinted at Mister Netanyahus indecision, calling it, in essence, a decision that leads to a dangerous course. It wasnt just him. Another member of the unity cabinet, Benny Gantz, threatened to leave the government next month if theres no postwar plan. The pressure on Mister Netanyahu is not only coming from within. Americas National Security advisor has been in the region building a long sought plan for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, something that could force Israel to curb its war aims.

Earlier this week, the international criminal Courts chief prosecutor requested that judges issue arrest warrants for Mister Netanyahu and Mister Galant and three more european countries, Norway, Spain, and Ireland, announced they would recognize Palestine as a state. Zanni Minton Beddoes, the Economist's editor in chief, recently visited Israel and those tense halls of power. It was my first trip since October 7, and I came back profoundly depressed. The politics is unbelievably grim. The diplomatic pressure on Israel is growing internationally, and I'm not sure that within Israel there is a recognition of just how bad that situation is.

Zanni and our Jerusalem correspondent Anshul Pfeffer found plenty of disquiet even beyond what's been making headlines the last week. We've had a flurry of diplomatic, political, and even legal developments here regarding the war. Two key ministers of the war cabinet warning of a lack of strategy for who can take over Gaza after the war. The same time, us national security adviser Jay Sullivan has been here once again pushing the american saudi plan, which is a way out of the war but very unpalatable to Bendjimen Netanyahu. There's been really so many different developments and still not clear how any of these are going to lead to a ceasefire and end of this war.

And Anshul, paint us a picture here. What is the nature of the disagreement as regards israeli sort of internal politics at this stage? So Netanyahus position is that Israel has to destroy Hamas, has to continue the battle in Gaza until a certain unspecified point in time where it can be satisfied that Hamas is no longer a credible threat. The problem is that Netanyahu won't agree to having any serious discussion, both within the cabinet and in the broader israeli sphere over what the strategy is on the day after. What will fill this vacuum that has already been created in Gaza?

Anshul Pfeffer
And what we've seen in the last few days is this debate, almost a lack of a debate, but ministers demanding that there should be a discussion coming out in the open, both gallant and then Benny Gantz publicly challenging the prime minister to put forward a strategy. Now, this is a small war cabin at a time, at a time of war. And you have the two most senior ministers after the prime minister publicly challenging him. It's a level of dysfunction, a political dysfunction. I think that even by israeli standards is unprecedented.

Zanni Minton Beddoes
Its as though Lloyd Austin, the us defense secretary, were publicly trashing President Biden. And privately, the security establishment was absolutely visceral in their criticism of Netanyahu. He has no plan. He refuses to think about the day after. And so these exhortations that you hear from american officials, they want the Israelis to come up with a plan in Gaza.

The security establishment wants to do that, too. Its just Bibi Netanyahu who does not want to do that. And he doesnt want to do it because hes in hock to his extremist far right members of his coalition and knows that if he does come up with a plan, the only possible sensible plan. They will go crackers and that will be the end of him. And all he is thinking about, and I heard it again and again, is his own personal political survival.

Jason Palmer
Well, the first question to ask is, what is on the table? We know that Mister Netanyahu is happy with a forever war. What is it that Mister Gantz and Mister Gallant proposing instead? Well, Netanyahu's challenges right now are the two senior ministers in his war cabinet, defense Minister Yav Gallant, who is a right winger, a hawk, but he also thinks that Israel should not be occupying Gaza and therefore has presented his plans for a palestinian administration to take control of the vacuum created in Gaza. Benny Gantz, who joined the war cabinet immediately after October 7, is also Netanyahu's main centrist rival.

Anshul Pfeffer
Hes looking at a more detailed plan. And hes also got more room for maneuverability over a possible palestinian, he calls it entity rather than state. At this point. Theyre the ones who are now challenging Netanyahu publicly. The military establishment and the sort of broad non Netanyahu political establishment broadly agree that its a catastrophe.

Zanni Minton Beddoes
Israel remains a kind of occupying power and maintains responsibility for Gaza and sort of occupies it. You need to have a palestinian non Hamas based loosely on a sort of technocratic palestinian Fatah administration, probably with security support. You know, UAe has mentioned Egypt, Jordan. The details differ, but there's been quite a lot of very, very detailed planning going on that is necessary for the immediate day after to create the security situation that you will need to provide real humanitarian assistance, to provide the kind of basic tents and provision that you're going to have to have people that should ideally be part of a much broader pathway that includes a pathway to a two state solution, but it could also ideally include movement between Saudi Arabia and the US for a security guarantee which altogether leads you to a path. As you know, Jason, weve been arguing for, for months in the pages of the Economist that leads to a better future for the region.

A two state solution has to be part of this, but its not going to happen tomorrow morning. But there has to be the political leadership that is not just sort of nihilistically saying, no, no, no. And in fact, sort of, and although Netanyahu isnt saying this, his far right coalition partners are basically saying they want to, you know, reoccupy and resettle Gaza. There has to be someone who is powerful enough and bold enough to say that is not the path forward. But the path forward is clearly not a straightforward thing to find I mean, in a nutshell, what are the obstacles?

Anshul Pfeffer
There are two major obstacles that when they are presented to the israeli public, they kind of pull back in fear. One is the idea of the Palestinian Authority taking over in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority is discredited both because it's weak. It lost control of Gaza back in 2007, and it hasn't even condemned what happened on October 7. So many Israelis see it, even though the Palestinian Authority is a political opponent of Hamas, they see them somehow to blame for what happened in October 7.

So Israelis still have a problem when the Palestinian Authority is presented as an alternative to being gazed. And the other issue is the palestinian state. Israelis are in no place now to even contemplate that idea. So when Benny Gantz puts forward what israeli strategy has to be, he can't really go all the way and mention the Palestinian Authority, of the palestinian state because he's worried of losing the support that he now has in the polls. Zanni, what's your take on that?

Zanni Minton Beddoes
This is something that was a real shock to me. I'd heard from american officials. You have to understand that Israel is in a state of trauma, that israeli citizens are in a state of trauma, and they can't yet think about things like a two state solution. That's something I've heard again and again in Washington. Being there in Israel brought that home very, very clear to me.

And so there is a sense of a country that feels extraordinarily vulnerable. And it's worth remembering that there are 100,000 Israelis displaced, not just from near the gazan border, but from the north of Israel because of the Hezbollah attacks. And that seems too many people still to be sort of existential. And it seems to me that unless there is some mechanism for moving Hezbollah back towards them, the line is the Lettani river in the north, that there is a very real risk of something happening there in the coming months. And, angel, I've learned to be circumspect about even so much as contemplating the end of Benjamin Netanyahus political career.

Jason Palmer
But I'm tempted to ask what you think about his position right now. Netanyahu has never been weaker. He's basically beholden to the far right for his political survival. And we're seeing in the polls that the level of trust in him is at rock bottom. And something really intriguing is happening here with israeli public opinion.

Anshul Pfeffer
On the one hand, Israelis have turned against Netanyahu. We see 70% of Israelis impulse saying that Netanyahu should be replaced. But at the same time, Netanyahu is still dominating the public discourse. And in a way, he is the one still deciding the narrative. And until his opponents, and we're beginning to see that the fact that Gantz and Galland, in obviously coordinated moves, openly challenged Netanyahu is, I think, the beginning of a moving of the public narrative, not just against Netanyahu personally, but against his message of absolutism and rejecting any ideas until, as he claims, their total victory can be achieved.

So I think the public narrative is beginning to change, and not just against Anthony Hartley, but against his message. But it's a gradual process. It's not going to happen overnight. And the problem is that those are opposing to Niagara. They are not very well coordinated.

They're rivals among themselves. They have different ideas. But what about the more direct political threat here? Benny Gantz, war cabinet minister, a direct political rival to Mister Netanyahu, who has threatened to leave the government in the absence of a post war plan. What happens if he follows through on that threat?

Benny Gantz, on his own, can't bring Netanyahu down. Even if he and his centrist party leave the coalition, Netanyahu still has a majority. And as we've seen with Netanyahu over all the years, he's going to do everything he can to stick in power. The real pressure can ultimately only come, I think, from President Joe Biden. And that's where Netanyahu will finally reach this critical juncture, whether he sticks with the far right or he accepts this saudi american plan, which could perhaps salvage some of Netanyahu's extremely tarnished legacy.

Some people who say that they know what Netanyahu is thinking have told me recent days that when push comes to shove, he will take that option. I'm not seeing any signs of that yet, but that really is the only major lever of pressure now on Netanyahu. I just don't think within Israel there is a recognition or a realization of just how much the country is becoming seen as an international pariah. They are very focused internally and understandably so. Everyone's fed up with Bebe.

Zanni Minton Beddoes
But there isn't perhaps yet a recognition, at least amongst the broader israeli population, of quite, just what the catastrophic consequences of his nihilism will be. Zanni Anshul, thank you both so much for your time. Thanks for having me. Thank you.

Jason Palmer
Okay, one last time on this. What are you doing tomorrow? I have a suggestion. Check out our subscriber only Saturday edition. Tomorrow is the last freebie episode of the weekend Intelligence, our kickback show that dives into poignant, compelling and sometimes very personal stories from our correspondence.

Its the last freebie, that is, unless youve heroically already signed up for economist podcasts plus, in which case, thanks for keeping the lights on over here. If not, I have a deal for you, my friend. Until the end of the month, you can get half off a subscription to Economist podcasts. Plus just a couple of bucks a month, youll get access to the weekend intelligence. All our weekly analysis shows our long form series, the works.

Just search for Economist podcasts. Do it now while it's cheap.

Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a. Thing Mint mobile Unlimited premium Wireless 30 30 Baby get 30 Baby get 20 2020 Baby get 2020 a bit to get 15 1515 just $15 a month. So give it a try at mint mobile.com switch $45 upfront for three months.

Plus taxes and fees. Promoting for new customers for limited time unlimited more than 40gb per month slows full terms at mint mobile.com dot.

Jason Palmer
Anyone who owns a home knows how this can go. You decide to spruce the place up a little and a small job becomes a big job, or more jobs. Next thing you know, the renovation budget is blown. Well, the italian government certainly knows the feeling. It launched two incentives to encourage homeowners to spend on environmentally friendly renovations.

But now politicians are worried that theyre taking a wrecking ball to the public finances. Italys finance minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, has said that these subsidies give him a stomach ache. John Hooper is the economist's Italy correspondent. It is the fiscal equivalent of King Kong that has been loosed on the italian public accounts and is just running amok. And before we get into the way it's gone wrong here, tell us what the plan was supposed to be.

John Hooper
Well, this goes back to 2020 and the pandemic when the left populist government of Giuseppe Conte was looking for a way to stimulate the economy, and they introduced a subsidy to pay homeowners who invested in increasingly energy efficiency of their homes, 110% of the price of any of those improvements. So solar panels, heat pumps, lagging, etcetera. The other initiative that was introduced covered 90% of the cost of doing up the front of a building. The cash was not to be reimbursed directly. It would come in the form of tax credits.

But those tax credits are tradable, so you can in fact get cash. So I can almost see how this is going to go. But how did it play out at first? Well, in one sense, the scheme has worked. Italy, since the pandemic, has done rather better than both France and Germany, and that's largely due to a construction boom.

In fact, the italian construction sector has grown by almost a third over those years, whereas elsewhere in Europe, it's stood pretty much still. The problem is that it has come at a huge price, because the treasury now is committed to forking out over the duration of the scheme, no less than €219 billion. Now, that's 10% of Italy's GDP last year and more than all that Italy is getting from the European Union's post pandemic recovery fund. So how did the bill for all this get so high, though? Well, there are a number of reasons.

First of all, it was mighty popular, particularly the so called super bonus, which gave you 110% of what you spent. Who wouldn't like a deal like that? Added to which, there has been fraud on a very considerable scale, an estimated €16 billion already. And then there's something that is not exactly what you think of when you think of fraud, but, well, let me put it this way. You want to put lagging in your extensive tuscan retreat, Jason, right?

So you come to me as the builder, and I say to you, Jason, hand on heart, I can't do this for less than 20,000, let's say. But why should you care? Because you're going to get 22,000 back. Well, at that point, I can then say to you, but of course, if we agree that the price that we submit to the government is 40,000, you're going to get 4000 back. Actually, you could get a lot more, because we can split the difference between that, just making some allowance for the fact that I'm going to have to pay a bit more tax.

So in a way, the super bonus had built into it temptation, almost irresistible temptation to fraud. And that seems to have been a major reason why this bill has kept on going up and up and up. The final reason is that the politicians, knowing that this was such a popular scheme, decided not to do anything about it until very recently. But now the bill is coming due, surely theyre going to have to. Yes, they are doing so.

In fact, the latest move has been introduced by the government of Giorgio Maloney. And what they are doing is theyre spreading out the use of these tax credits over ten years. But already the scheme has done a huge amount of damage to Italys public accounts. Last year's deficit was far bigger than originally projected and already the super bonus, just by itself, without the other scheme, has cost the treasury over €120 billion. It looks very much as if the belt is going to have to be tightened come the autumn with an austerity budget that the politicians were rather reluctant to introduce with the european elections coming up.

Jason Palmer
John, thanks very much for your time. My pleasure. Jason.

Rachel Lloyd
Pitbull does not make the kind of music you would describe as romantic. Rachel Lloyd is the economist's deputy culture editor. Listeners are unlikely to swoon when they hear the american rapper's lyrics.

Some of the lyrics are more likely to make you scowl than smile. And yet, when a couple gets to kissing in a horse drawn carriage in the new season of Bridgerton, they do so to a string quartet cover of his tune from 2011. Give me everything.

Remove Pitbull's braggadocio, add some staccato violins, and you take a song from gross to engrossing Bridgerton, as well as its spin off Queen Charlotte, positions itself as a modern kind of period drama. The time has come for the social. Season tighter she to breathe mama the. First four episodes of season three were released on Netflix on May 16. The second set of episodes will arrive on June 13.

Bridgerton is one of the television mega hits of recent years. According to Netflix, viewers spent almost 1 billion hour watching the first season and nearly 800 million with the second. Internet searches for corsets and Wisteria have soared since the show premiered. It's also made string quartets the most popular they've been in centuries.

The soundtrack sets the tone for the show's blend of old and new sensibilities. It's full of classical crossovers, like this string quartet rendition of Harry Styles sign of the Times.

It also features covers of songs by Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift. Vitamin String quartet performs many of the show's tracks. The group saw streams jump by 350% in the weeks after Bridgerton debuted. Leo Flynn, the group's brand manager, says interest has stayed high. The most popular songs have more than 20 million streams apiece on Spotify, and in fact, the popularity is such that the quartet has recently announced plans for a tour of more than 40 cities across America.

According to research by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra, people are interested in going to pop classical events more than almost any other kind of orchestral concert. In 2023, they ranked second just behind concerts featuring hits from musicals. FIFA, an entertainment booking platform, has been organising string quartet concerts by candlelight since 2019. Such events are now hosted in more than 150 cities worldwide and have been attended by some 3 million people. Its programme includes evenings dedicated to the music of Adele and Ed Sheeran, and its performers have included vitamin String quartet playing the Bridgerton soundtrack.

Just as string quartet reinterpretations provide the backdrop to the courtships in Bridgerton, theyre also popular choices for weddings today. Betrothed couples looking to show off their elegance and refinement have long bookstring quartets, but many now forego bark for Beyonce. I spoke to the founder of one string quartet based in London. She said that some 40% of her clients specifically request Bridgerton style music as something both classy and up to date.

Of course, Bridgerton is not the first pop culture sensation to influence fans behaviour or preferences. The Queen's Gambit, a mini series released on Netflix in 2020, made chess cool for a time. Sales of chess sets exploded. Fans of the top gun movies in 1986 and 2022 felt the need for speed, but they also felt the need to rush out and buy a pair of Ray ban aviators and challenges, a new romance drama about professional athletes, has popularized a tennis court aesthetic, which includes short white skirts and sweater vests. There have been more than 19 million videos with the tag on TikTok.

Some music purists may sniff at this trend, but Bridgerton is in the business of shaking up tired genres. Audiences for classical fare have typically skewed male and middle aged or older, but many of the people listening to Fitzmann string quartet are young women aged between 14 and 35. Modern tunes help demystify a rarefied art form and bring in these younger audiences. Fever says that more than 60% of first time visitors had never been to a concert with classical instruments before. So if Bridgerton continues to hit a sweet note, it may have a harmonious effect on the classical music sector as a whole.

Jason Palmer
Thats all for this episode of the intelligence. The shows editors are Chris Impey and Jack Gill. Our deputy editor is Jon Joe Devlin and our sound designer is will Rowe. Our senior producers are Rory Galloway and Sarah Lamyuk. Our senior creative producer is William Warren.

Our producers are Maggie Khedifa and Benji Guy and our assistant producer is Henrietta McFarlane. With extra production help this week from Emily Elias, Peter Greenitz, Jonathan Day and Ben Lowings. We'll all see you back here tomorrow for the weekend. Intelligence you know the one I was mentioning before.

Ready for a smarter way to work with Asana? You can drive clarity and accountability at scale, connect work to company wide goals, so you always know what's on track and what's at risk, and maximize impact by automating workflows across your organization. Asana a smarter way to work. Try for free today@asana.com. that's Asana.com.