What to expect after the sudden death of Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi

This episode delves into the sudden death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi and its implications for Iran and the broader Middle East region.

1. The death of President Raisi marks a critical juncture for Iran, potentially leading to increased internal instability.
2. Raisi's controversial policies and the circumstances of his death may intensify public and political discord in Iran.
3. The succession race in Iran is now more uncertain, possibly leading to a shift towards a military-dominated government.
4. The episode highlights the geopolitical implications of Raisi's death, particularly concerning Iran's relations with Israel and the U.S.
5. There is widespread skepticism within Iran about the official explanation for the helicopter crash, fueling conspiracy theories.

1. Introduction and Incident Overview

Details the circumstances of the helicopter crash that killed President Raisi and other key officials. Mary Louise Kelly: "Breaking overnight, the president of Iran, Ibrahim Raezi, has..."

2. Raisi's Political Legacy

Explores Raisi's role in Iran's political landscape, including his hardline policies and involvement in human rights abuses. Mary Louise Kelly: "Raisi was also known as a hardline cleric whose violent crackdown on political and social dissent reaches back decades."

3. Regional Impact and Analysis

Analyzes the potential impact of Raisi's death on regional stability, especially regarding Iran-Israel relations. Daniel Estrin: "There is a lot of concern in Israel about instability in Iran."

4. Succession and Future Scenarios

Discusses the implications for Iran's political future and potential successors to Raisi. Karim Sajadpur: "This introduces great uncertainty when it comes to Iran's political succession."

• Stay informed about developments in Iran, particularly in terms of political succession.
• Consider the broader implications of Middle Eastern political shifts on global security.
• Engage in discussions and forums to better understand the complexities of Iranian politics.
• Support initiatives that promote human rights and democratic processes in the region.
• Monitor news for updates on Iran's foreign relations and nuclear policy developments.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has died in a helicopter crash, according to state media. Here's how his death might contribute to instability in Iran and the region.

People

Ebrahim Raisi, Hussein Amir Abdollahian, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Karim Sajadpur

Guest Name(s):

Karim Sajadpur

Content Warnings:

None

Mary Louise Kelly
Breaking overnight, the president of Iran, Ibrahim Raezi, has. Iranian state run media confirmed early on Monday that a helicopter carrying Irans President Ibrahim Raisi, foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian and other officials crashed in the mountains of northwest Iran near the border with Azerbaijan. There were no survivors. And Pierce Peter Kenyon has been covering the reaction from Tehran. The iranian cabinet released a statement lauding Raisi as a hard working president who made the ultimate, ultimate sacrifice on the path of serving his nation.

But Raisi was also known as a hardline cleric whose violent crackdown on political and social dissent reaches back decades. He was a protege of supreme leader Khamenei, and critics have long condemned his role. Raisi's role in the committees known as death squads. Back in the 1980s, they handed down thousands of death sentences to political prisoners. Raisi has been called the supreme leader's enforcer.

Raisi's strict enforcement of the country's hijab and chastity law led to the arrest of 22 year old Masa Amini because her headscarf did not properly cover her hair. She died in 2022. While in custody recently, he was seen as a supporter of the violent crackdown on women who had failed to comply with Iran's strict islamic dress code. Anger at Amini's death grew into a movement. Young Iranians took to the streets to air their grievances against the government's brutality.

Human rights groups reported that hundreds of protesters were killed, thousands were jailed. Well, I traveled to Iran, sat down with Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, and interviewed him through an interpreter a few months after those protests began. He said news of the government's response had not been reported accurately. First of all, no student whatsoever was detained at the universities or premises of the universities during the riots. In fact, those who were detained were people who played a role in the riots on the streets.

Well, this past weekend's helicopter crash comes as Iran and Israel have launched attacks on each other. So news of the iranian president's death is raising questions about the impact on the balance of power in the region. NPR's Daniel Estrin has been covering the Israel Hamas war. Iran's proxies, the Houthis Hezbollah, have been waging a low grade war with Israel throughout the entire Gaza war. But there is a lot of concern in Israel about instability in Iran.

Daniel Estrin
Now Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, met with us national security adviser Jake Sullivan, and Lapid told him Iran will enter a period of instability. Consider this. How might the death of Irans president and foreign minister contribute to instability in Iran and the region. And what should we watch for from Irans next elected leader?

Mary Louise Kelly
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Mary Louise Kelly
It's consider this from NPR. What's next for Iran? Given news of a helicopter crash in the fog in the mountains of northern Iran, a helicopter that was carrying the president of Iran, as well as the foreign minister and other officials, there were no survivors. So in one blow, Iran lost its top elected official and the man charged with steering its foreign policy. Well, Karim Sajadpur, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins me now.

Karim, welcome back. Great to be with you. How much instability might this introduce into a country that was already on edge in a region that was already on. Edge in the near term? MarY LOUisE, I don't think this is going to destabilize Iran and that the institution of presidency in Iran is not a powerful institution.

Karim Sajadpur
He didn't really oversee, certainly Iran's external policies, its nuclear program or the direction of the country. I mentioned he was the top elected official, but clerics run Iran. Yeah, exactly. So I think what this does is it introduces great uncertainty when it comes to Iran's political succession. Iran is ruled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He's an 85 year old old supreme leader, arguably the longest serving dictator in the world. And President Raisi was widely thought to be one of two potential successors to Khamenei, with the other being Khamenei's son, Mojtaba. And Iran is a highly conspiratorial political culture. I think few people will probably believe this was just an accident and so this introduces great uncertainty when it comes to who succeeds Khamenei, because now there's only one person who's really in the conversation, and that's the dictator son. And that doesn't look good for a system which came to power by overthrowing a hereditary monarchy and saying, we're different than them.

Mary Louise Kelly
It's interesting. I mean, on the one hand, it sounds as though it introduces more certainty if there's only one leading contender left for who will succeed the supreme leader, who, as you know it, as well into his eighties. Well, in theory, you would think that. But in practice, given the fact that Mojtaba Khamenei, the leader's son, is not a known quantity to Iranians, he's not a popular individual, and he'll have really no legitimacy. That means he'll be coming to power, having to rely on the repression of the revolutionary guards to maintain order.

Karim Sajadpur
You know, I believe that Iran, there's probably few countries in the world with a greater gap between the aspirations of its regime and the aspirations of its society than Iran. You have a regime that aspires to be like North Korea, a society that aspires to be like South Korea. And Moshe Tab Khamenei doesn't have an inspiring vision for Iran. It's more death to America, death to Israel, mandatory veil. So he's going to really, in my view, be more of a puppet of the military, the revolutionary guards.

And so I think if indeed, and this is still. Still very uncertain, the supreme leader is 85 years old. He could technically live a number of years. But I think Raisi's death, the impact it will have is to hasten Iran's transition to either a more overt military government or, frankly, hasten the implosion of a regime which is, in my view, deeply unpopular and unsustainable. Amy, you suggested that this may prompt conspiracy theories, that few Iranians will be persuaded this helicopter crash was an.

Mary Louise Kelly
Are you. Do you buy this was an accident? You know, I believe in Occam's razor, that oftentimes are usually the most obvious explanation is the correct one. And, you know, Iran is a country which has suffered a lot from aviational challenges. This helicopter was a Vietnam war era helicopter.

Karim Sajadpur
You know, Iran prides itself on building an indigenous nuclear rockets, missiles and drones program, but they were flying their top officials on a 1979 american bell helicopter in very poor weather and fog. So I think that the explanation that it was bad weather is plausible. But Iran is also a country with a lot of adversaries and some Iranians I suspect, will think that Israel or the United States may have conducted foul play or that the supreme leader may have somehow engineered this so his son could replace him. One more question, just in terms of what to watch for next in Iran, there will be elections to replace President Raisi. That has to happen within 50 days.

Mary Louise Kelly
What will you be watching for there in terms of how free and fair those elections are, in terms of what that will tell us about the future, where Iran is headed? Well, iranian elections are never free and fair, but they have this unique quality of being unfree, unfair and unpredictable. So they usually are not a triad. Yes, exactly. I mean, last time it was clear that Ayatollah Khamenei wanted to engineer the election of Raisi.

Karim Sajadpur
This time around, he has options. Does he want to introduce his son to the public as now an elected president? Will he go with perhaps a more pragmatic individual who has a background from the security forces? It remains to be seen. A lot of people have their eye on the current speaker of parliament, Qalibaf, who has a background in the security forces.

But, you know, we shall see in the coming days and weeks. Last thing how should the US tread here? Are there implications here for the US relationship with Iran, or is that also just too soon to say? I think the death of Raisi doesn't change Iran's ideological prerogatives, which, as I said, opposition to America, opposition to Israel certainly doesn't change that in the near term. I think the Biden administration's hope is to avoid any type of escalation and conflict with Iran between now and November.

But whoever becomes the US president, whether it's President Biden or President Trump, one of the top items on their foreign policy agenda will be to counter Iran's advancing nuclear program and to counter Iran's pretty enormous influence in the Middle east and that it's dominating five arab countries right now. Karim Sajapur of the Carnegie Endowment, always a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you so much. Mara Louise, this episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Jordan Marie Smith.

Mary Louise Kelly
It was edited by Jeanette woods and Sarah Handel. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. And one more thing before we go. You can now enjoy the consider this newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers and hosts and share some moments of joy from the all things considered team.

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