What a second Biden or Trump presidency could mean for American allies and foes

This episode explores the potential impacts of a second presidency under either Joe Biden or Donald Trump on America's international relations and foreign policies.

1. Biden aims to reinforce U.S. alliances and continue supporting Ukraine and Israel amidst ongoing conflicts.
2. Trump's foreign policy might involve significant withdrawal from international agreements and a skeptical approach to NATO.
3. Both presidencies would maintain some continuity in foreign policy despite their distinct approaches, particularly in relations with Israel and China.
4. The handling of foreign policies by either candidate could significantly impact their electoral success in light of current global conflicts.
5. The episode underscores the broad implications of U.S. foreign policy choices, affecting international perceptions and alliances.

1: Introduction

Overview of the stakes involved in the upcoming U.S. presidential election concerning international relations. Key focus on how Biden and Trump's foreign policies differ significantly.

• Mary Louise Kelly: "America's role in international affairs is a priority for many voters this election."

2: Biden's Foreign Policy

Discussion on Biden's strategies in international diplomacy and his actions during conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war and Ukraine.

• Joe Biden: "We stand with Israel."

3: Trump's Foreign Policy Vision

Insight into Trump's proposed changes to U.S. foreign policy, including his critical stance on NATO and alliances.

• Donald Trump: "America first."

4: Implications for U.S. and Global Politics

Analysis of how the foreign policies of either presidency could influence U.S. elections and global perceptions.

• Franco Ordonez: "Trump's dissatisfaction with NATO is nothing new."

1. Stay informed on international policies as they shape global relations.
2. Evaluate how presidential policies align with global stability and peace efforts.
3. Consider the long-term impacts of U.S. foreign policy decisions on global alliances.
4. Engage in discussions and forums to understand the broader implications of U.S. elections.
5. Advocate for policies that support international cooperation and peace.

America is facing two very different futures on the world stage after November.

If former President Trump wins, he's promised to fundamentally re-evaluate the NATO alliance, reshape global trade and overhaul the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence agencies.

He's largely avoided explaining how he'd handle the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, yet says he can settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.

Meanwhile, if President Biden wins, he's signaled his commitment to fight global threats to peace and freedom, and he's vowed to continue to help Ukraine and Israel fight in their respective wars.

People

Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Franco Ordonez, Natalie Tochi, Stephen Walt, Anne Applebaum

Content Warnings:

None

Mary Louise Kelly
With wars underway in the Middle east and Europe, America's role in international affairs is a priority for many voters this election. Free, free Palestine. Free, free Palestine. Some 40% of Americans think foreign policy should be a primary issue in this election. That's according to an AP News poll, and that is up from last year.

The two major presidential candidates have laid out very different visions for how the US should interact with the rest of the world. Here's Donald Trump from his inauguration speech in 2017. We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first.

Donald Trump
America first. Joe Biden, meanwhile, used his inauguration speech as a direct rebuttal to Trump, making it clear that on his watch, America would once again be a leader in international diplomacy. We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again, not to meet yesterday's challenges, but today's and tomorrow's challenges, and will lead not merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example. At the time of his inauguration, Bidens biggest foreign policy challenge was getting the United States out of Afghanistan. But the chaotic withdrawal from that country was criticized by both Republicans and Democrats, and it angered allies.

Mary Louise Kelly
Now Biden is juggling Russias invasion of Ukraine and the Israel Hamas war. Both conflicts are politically divisive, something Trump has tried to use to his advantage. Here he is in November, speaking to univision. Three years ago, we had no problems. We had no inflation.

Donald Trump
We had no Ukraine problem. We had no Israel problem. We had no problems. Biden has been pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza following global outcry over the deaths of thousands of Palestinians. But Biden has also made clear since the Hamas attack on October 7 that he supports Israel and will continue to do so.

Joe Biden
So in this moment, we must be crystal clear. We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. Consider this. Trump has signaled that in a second term, he would make big changes to us relationships with allies and pull back on us commitments of global defense.

Mary Louise Kelly
Biden has signaled his commitment to fight global threats to peace and freedom, and he's vowed he would continue to help Ukraine and Israel. How much will their opposing views influence how Americans vote in November? Coming up, NPR's Greg Myrie and Franco Ordonez on how Trump and Biden's outlooks on international events could impact the us elections and how America is viewed in the world.

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Donald Trump
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Mary Louise Kelly
It's consider this from NPR. America is facing two very different futures on the world stage. Under a potential second term for Biden or Trump promises to fundamentally reevaluate the NATO alliance, reshape global trade, overhaul the Pentagon, state Department and intelligence agencies. He has largely avoided explaining how he would handle the conflicts in Europe and the Middle east, yet says he can settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. What is clear is that Trump plans to pick up where he left off during his first term and then push farther.

NPR's Franco Ordonez took a closer look.

Donald Trump
Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, former President Donald Trump recalled a european leader asking if the US would defend the country if they were invaded by Russia, even if they had not met NATO's spending targets. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.

It was a stunning admission. It was seen as a shot across the bow to european allies and the foreign policy establishment. The statement was less about the threat that allowing Russia to do whatever it wanted would mean for the countries involved and more about what it says about Trump's view of alliances. Ivo Dalder served as the us ambassador to NATO in the Obama administration, so it makes sense he'd be critical. But his larger point, which is being echoed across party lines, is that Trump is reducing the importance of a 75 year alliance to the US being an army for hire, and that NATO isnt something that is fundamental to us security a Trump return to the Oval Office means that an alliance like NATO, which is built fundamentally on trust, will suffer because people will not be able to trust Donald Trump to defend them if and when the emergency arises.

Trumps dissatisfaction with NATO is nothing new. Hes been critical of western allies and cozied up to authoritarian leaders like Russias Vladimir Putin and Hungarys Viktor Orban. From the campaign trail, Trumps raised concerns that the US is paying too much to support Ukraine. Hes promised again to withdraw from the Paris climate accords. And hes floated the idea of a 10% tax on imports from all countries and a much higher tax on China because Chinas eating our lunch right now.

Foreign policy veterans like John Simon, who served as ambassador to the African Union in the Bush administration, take issue with Trumps approach to Russia and Ukraine and worry hell dismantle key tenets of american foreign policy, like standing up to totalitarian aggression. My great fear is that a second Trump administration would have all the hallmarks of his first administration without any of the guardrails that were provided by the more experienced foreign policy folks who were around him. He would be like a child without any parents to stop him from doing. Really bad things in Europe. The idea of Trump's return brings a mix of excitement, resignation, and fear.

Natalie Tochi
Last time around, actually, Trump had a fairly unifying effect on Europe. Natalie Tochi, a former top EU foreign policy advisor, says leaders rallied together during his first administration as the US seemed to check out from the transatlantic relationship. But the political landscape in Europe has changed, and she says a second potential Trump term has some keeping their heads in the sand, unable or unwilling to face that prospect. So it's more like, you know, this kind of fear of something that is happening and you think it's going to happen, and you're more and more convinced that it will happen. But it's so scary that you just prefer not to think about it.

Donald Trump
European parliamentary elections this week that saw a rise in far right parties further worry more establishment leaders. She says Trump's election could inflame those divisions. We may see a rather unseemly show of european leaders kind of rushing to. Washington to kiss the ring without mentioning Trump's name. Biden nodded to some of those concerns while traveling in France last week for the 80th anniversary of D Day.

Joe Biden
Isolationism was not the answer 80 years ago and is not the answer today. Trump has dismissed the criticism, blaming Biden and the foreign policy establishment for creating a more dangerous world. Brian Lanza, a former Trump aide who remains close to the campaign says Trump was right to challenge NATO members to step up their defense contributions. Now Trump feels validated the criticisms that exist from the foreign policy community. Those are criticisms because they don't want change.

Donald Trump
Perhaps it's impossible to predict Trump's exact policies, which has only increased feelings of uncertainty. Heather Conley, who worked on european issues in the Bush State Department, says it's important to remember that many of the policies will be the same, whether it's Biden or Trump. I often tell european colleagues there is more continuity to us policy than we sometimes suggest because we personalize this. And these personalities certainly have different approaches to allies. Very specifically, she points to similarities in their agenda and how Biden maintained the Abraham accords, a key Trump victory.

Both leaders kept a strong relationship with Israel and a hawkish approach to China underneath. Sometimes the policy can look awfully similar. Despite the differences in personalities, she says, theyre going to have to deal with the substance of those policies regardless of who is in the White House. Franco ORdonez, NPR News OK, turning now. To President Biden, who within months of taking over the White House, ended americas longest war by pulling us troops out of Afghanistan.

Mary Louise Kelly
Since then, two new wars have erupted, sparked by Russias full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the October 7 Hamas attack in Israel in 2023. NPR's Greg Myrie explains how these wars are defining Bidens presidency and complicating his re election bid. When Ukraine came under russian assault, President Bidens response was swift. I think Biden surprised the world. He certainly surprised the Russians by his decision in 2022 to create a broad democratic alliance to defend Ukraine.

Greg Myrie
Anne Applebaum is an author and historian who writes extensively on this war and in the Israel Hamas fight. Matthew Kroening at the Atlantic Council gives Biden high marks for jumping in immediately to back Israel. I think the Biden administration's instinct right after the October 7 attack was the correct one to have Israel's back in its goal to eliminate Hamas. Both wars have their own distinct dynamics, and like most conflicts, the longer they grind on, the messier and more complicated they become. Biden's backing of Ukraine still has broad support in the US and the west.

However, his embrace of Israel faces widespread criticism, mostly over the high death toll for palestinian civilians. Stephen Walt is a professor of international relations at Harvard. The United States has provided unconditional support for an israeli approach that is both unlikely to eradicate Hamas and has done enormous humanitarian damage. Biden is calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and has publicly chastised Israel over palestinian civilian deaths yet he still supports Israel's effort to fully defeat Hamas and has stepped up us military assistance in Ukraine. Biden remains wary of provoking a russian escalation and repeatedly sets limits on the kinds of weapons sent to Ukraine and how they can be used.

There's been kind of indecision again. Matthew Kroenig, should we provide tanks? First the answer was no. Then it was yes. Should we provide aircraft?

First the answer was no. Then it was yes. Should we allow Ukraine to strike into russian territory? First it was no. Then it was yes.

Ann Applebaum says Biden should say explicitly how he wants the war in Ukraine to end. I would like him to say clearly that he believes the Ukrainians can win the war and that he understands that a defeat of Russia is the only way the war can end permanently. In contrast, Stephen Walt says Biden has been too willing to go along with Ukraine's goal of driving out all russian troops, a goal Walt finds unrealistic. We've let Ukraine basically determine the war aims, and so the United States has not put any meaningful pressure on Ukraine to cut a diplomatic deal, and I think is unfortunately presiding over a long war of attrition that is doing enormous harm to Ukraine. In short, there's no way Biden can please everyone.

He's popular among the ukrainian and israeli publics for his strong support. His relationship with the leaders of those countries is trickier. Biden and Ukraines President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met in Paris on Friday. Biden announced more weapons for Ukraine, and Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude. But Zelensky has also signaled frustration with Bidens policy of placing limits on us weapons.

Again, Ann Applebaum clearly, Zelensky and Biden have different goals. Biden is fighting an election. Zelenskyy is fighting a war. They have a different timeline. They have a different sense of urgency, and I think it's fully understandable that there can be misunderstandings.

Meanwhile, Biden has a long history of friction with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the israeli leader has often defied Biden's wishes. Says Stephen Walt, the Biden team believed that by embracing and supporting Netanyahu, they would have influence over his actions. And that influence seems to be paltry at best. As Biden faces a reelection battle against Donald Trump. The conventional wisdom is that issues abroad rarely, if ever, determine a presidential contest.

However, as Matthew Kroenig notes, the Middle east war is provoking strong emotions and ongoing protests against israeli military action and Biden support for Israel. And so I think Biden wants to get these conflicts to die down before the election. President Biden hasn't and insists he won't send us troops into the conflict zones in the Middle east or Ukraine, yet he still faces tough decisions, says Stephen Walt. The danger is that you can get dragged into these things the longer they continue. And I will give Biden credit for having resisted that temptation up until now remains to be seen if he will continue to resist it if the situation gets worse.

And both wars are sure to deliver more surprises. Greg Myrie, NPR News, Washington. This episode was produced by Erica Ryan, Megan Lim and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. It was edited by Jeanette Woods, Andrew Sussman and Megan Pratts. Our executive producer is Sami Yinnigan, and in case you haven't heard, you can now enjoy consider this in Newsletter form, just like here on the podcast, we will help you break down a major story of the day, but you will also get to know our producers and our hosts, and we'll share some moments of joy from the All Things ConsIdered team.

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You can sign up@npr.org. considerthisnewsletter it's consider this from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. On this week's episode of Wild Card, comedian Bowen Yang says, you, don't have to feel bad for falling short on mindfulness. I get in my own way by, like, overprivileging the present.

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