The U.S. election results will reverberate around the world

This episode explores the international implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, focusing on its potential effects on global politics and diplomacy.

1. The U.S. election's outcome could drastically affect international military and financial support.
2. Countries like Ukraine view the election results as existential, with significant implications for their future security and sovereignty.
3. South Korea and Japan are concerned about potential changes in U.S. military commitments.
4. Israel's political leadership is keenly watching the election, with preferences for U.S. policy that could shift under different administrations.
5. The episode highlights global concerns about stability and alliances that hinge on U.S. election outcomes.

1: Introduction

Mary Louise Kelly sets the stage for discussing the international impact of the U.S. election.
Mary Louise Kelly: "US election years are a whirlwind. Now the United States is being overrun by the Biden migrant crime."

2: Global Perspectives

Insights from NPR correspondents on how different countries view the stakes of the U.S. election.
Daniel Estrin: "North Korea test fired a long range ballistic missile with the potential to hit the US."

3: Financial and Military Support

Discussion on how U.S. financial and military support could change post-election.
Anthony Kuhn: "Donald Trump has described the US's top allies in Asia, Japan and South Korea, basically as wealthy freeloaders."

4: Closing Remarks

Summary of discussions and a preview of upcoming episodes.
Mary Louise Kelly: "It's consider this from NPR."

1. Stay informed on international relations to understand global impacts of local elections.
2. Analyze foreign policy platforms of presidential candidates to foresee international consequences.
3. Engage in discussions and forums that explore the global implications of national elections.
4. Support organizations that promote international understanding and cooperation.
5. Educate others about the interconnectedness of global politics and national decisions.

Polls – and NPR's own reporting – tell a story of many Americans fatigued by the upcoming presidential race. They're not satisfied with the choice between two men who have both already held the office of President.

But American allies and partners are watching the race intently, including South Korea, Japan, Ukraine and Israel. The fates of those countries are closely tied to whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden ends up sitting in the White House next year.

The NPR correspondents who cover those countries, Anthony Kuhn in South Korea, Joanna Kakissis in Ukraine, and Daniel Estrin in Israel, discuss the stakes each of those countries have in the outcome of America's presidential election.

People

Mary Louise Kelly, Daniel Estrin, Anthony Kuhn, Joanna Kakissis

Content Warnings:

None

Mary Louise Kelly
US election years are a whirlwind. Now the United States is being overrun by the Biden migrant crime. I'm proud of my administration taking on big pharma. We will immediately tackle inflation. We witness a full on assault on reproductive freedom and understand who is to blame.

Former President Donald Trump did this. Immigration, healthcare, inflation, reproductive rights, international diplomacy, all of these issues are top of mind for american voters this year as President Biden and former President Trump campaigned for the White House. But the stakes are just as high for american allies and close partners around. The world as Russia's military assault of Ukraine is underway. We have breaking news out of Israel this morning where Hamas has launched a surprise attack.

Daniel Estrin
North Korea test fired a long range ballistic missile with the potential to hit the US. This for people in Ukraine, where the country's military is trying to fight off Russia, the question of who will win in the us election in November is an existential one. We've taken three major steps at the D seven that collectively show Putin he cannot wait us out. He cannot divide us. And we'll be with Ukraine until they prevail in this war.

Mary Louise Kelly
Or take Israel, another country embroiled in war, where people are watching closely to see who will be the next occupant of the Oval Office. If any jewish person voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. He's totally abandoned Israel. Or take Asia, where us allies and partners wonder how the election in November will impact their economies and their national security. Consider whoever wins the 2024 presidential election could mean serious changes for Americans and also for those around the world who depend on us support.

After the break, we'll hear from NPR correspondents in Israel, Ukraine and South Korea about how their regions are thinking about another four years of Biden or Trump.

From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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Mary Louise Kelly
It's consider this from NPR. Polls and NPR's own reporting tell a story of many Americans fatigued by our upcoming presidential election, not satisfied with the choice between two men who have both already held the office of president. But american allies and partners are watching the race intently. Take South Korea, Japan, Ukraine, Israel. The fates of those countries are closely tied to whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden ends up sitting in the White House next year.

So we have gathered the NPR correspondents who cover those countries to walk us through how they view the stakes of the us election. Joanna Kakisses in Ukraine, Daniel Estrin in Israel, and Anthony Kuhn, who covers both South Korea and Japan from his base in Seoul. Welcome to all three of you. Thank you, Mary Louise. Thank you.

Daniel Estrin
Hi, Mary Louise. All right, I'm gonna start in Asia since you're well ahead of us on the, in the time zone clock. Anthony, I wanna talk through with all of you how a lot of anxiety centers on us financial support and how that may come into play depending on who wins this next presidential election. How does it look from where you sit? Well, Donald Trump has described the US's top allies in Asia, Japan and South Korea, basically as wealthy freeloaders.

Anthony Kuhn
And he said that if they don't pay more for the US to defend them, the US could bring home some of the roughly 78,000 troops based in those two countries. Now, critics point out that us troops are not there just to defend allies. They're also there to defend us interests and maintain us primacy in Asia. Critics say that Trump is more interested in the balance of payments than the balance of power in Asia. For example, in 2019, Trump demanded a 500% increase in South Korea's contribution.

Mary Louise Kelly
500%? Yes. Okay. And that made some South Koreans feel like he was shaking them down for protection money. Joanna, hop in here.

When you hear Anthony talking about Trump throwing around the term wealthy freeloaders, how does that resonate for you, sitting in Kyiv, which, of course, is very dependent on the US and its NATO allies for support right now, both military and financial, and where Trump has also threatened NATO allies, saying, you need to pay more, you need to up your contributions. Yeah, that's right. I mean, for Ukraine, this election is actually existential. Everyone asks us what's going to happen. And this sort of lack of clarity on Trumps position to some extent and, like, the future is making everybody really nervous, at least with Bidens team.

Joanna Kakissis
They say, well, this is an administration thats been with us through the worst of it. And Donald Trump has made some pretty strong statements. He has threatened to cut off future support for Ukraine. And he called President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraines president, the greatest salesman, and he didnt mean it. The greatest salesman.

He did not mean it as a compliment. Zelenskyy is maybe the greatest salesman salesman of any politician that's ever lived. Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion. I think President Zelensky would love if that were true, if every time he visited the US, he walked away with $60 billion. Daniel Estron, jump in here from Israel also, of course, grappling with its own war and trying to figure out what a Trump or a second Biden presidency would look like.

Daniel Estrin
That's right. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also grappling with the very question of us defense support, just like we heard in Asia and in Ukraine. I mean, just this week, Netanyahu infuriated the White House. He put out this video accusing the US of holding up weapons and ammunition to Israel, just really making it clear that Netanyahu is publicly standing up to Biden. I said it's inconceivable that in the past few months the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel.

I think it is clear in the background, Mary Louise, that Netanyahu and his circle of advisors much prefer Trump in the White House to Biden. Netanyahu's advisors will walk in the hallways and say things to each other like, well, it's just half a year to go. And then the Biden administration's pressure on Israel will go away. And that pressure is very much on Israel's conduct in the Gaza war. So analysts see here that Netanyahu is perhaps trying to buy time with the war, hoping that Trump wins the election and hoping that eventually that means that Israel will get this pressure from the Biden administration off its back.

Mary Louise Kelly
Anthony Kuhn, what about in South Korea? What about in Japan? Do you hear political leaders there either publicly or kind of under their breath expressing support for one candidate or the other in the american elections? They put a very diplomatic public face on it, saying that no matter who's in the White House, alliances with Washington will remain ironclad. But if you talk to people here, you know that they have serious concerns about abandonment.

Anthony Kuhn
And this goes not just for South Korea and Japan, but also allies such as the Philippines and partners such as Taiwan, and they fear they could be abandoned for several reasons. Joanna, speak to that in Ukraine. What kind of comments are you hearing from Zelenskyy from his team in terms of either saying out loud or saying under their breaths what they may be doing to prepare for a possible change of administration? Zelenskyy is very much a person who says, come see what we're experiencing here. And I believe that you will change your mind if you have any reservations.

Joanna Kakissis
And there are teams. President Zelensky's government is reaching out privately to Trump's team. So these efforts at diplomacy are being sped up as the election gets closer and closer. And then this is a jump ball question for any of the three of you. We've obviously been focusing these last several minutes on how elected leaders in your patch of the world view the american elections.

Mary Louise Kelly
What about just ordinary people? How closely are they tracking this, given everything else going on actually in their daily lives and plenty of politics at home to watch? It's not on the front pages of the newspaper here, that's for sure. I mean, the Israelis are preoccupied with so much right now, the Gaza war, a potential Lebanon war. Polls do show that more Israelis would want to see Trump in the white house than Biden.

Daniel Estrin
I think there is one thing, though, that Israelis fear, and it's that the US won't give its full backing at this very precarious time for Israel's security. And really, whoever is in the White House, there's a hope that, that they can help Israel reach a resolution to this mess. Yeah, I was just going to add that a lot of people here in South Korea, I think, think back to the Trump administration as a time of very high tension. People call it the days of fire and fury when there was a sort of nuclear brinksmanship between then President Trump and Kim Jong un. And people really felt insecure.

Anthony Kuhn
And I think in people's memories, that was a very tense time. And, Joanna, last word. Well, Mary Louise, it's really amazing how closely people are following this. People all know who Mike Johnson is. They all know who the key players in Congress are.

Joanna Kakissis
We were just in western Ukraine on the border with Romania, you know, very kind of an impoverished part of the country. And everyone there was asking me about it as well. Well, who do you think Trump would select as a secretary of state? And I was like, wow, you all are really interested in this. But it's understandable considering how much of a role the US plays in Ukraine's fate, that is.

Mary Louise Kelly
NPR's Joanna Kakisis in Kyiv, Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv, and Anthony Kuhn in Seoul. Thanks to all three of you. Thank you, Mary Louise. You're welcome. You're welcome.

This episode was produced by Erika Ryan and Matt Ozug, with audio engineering by Carly Strange, Ted Mebane and Philip Edforce. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Vincent Nee. Our executive producer is Sammy Yinigan. Thanks to consider this plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong, supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. You can learn more at plus dot npr.org dot.

It's consider this from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the most powerful man in indian politics, but big questions remain about how he's held on to power. India is really in danger now. All the democratic structures have been compromised.

Cyber hacking, mass arrest and what it means for India's democracy on the latest episode of the Sunday Story from NPR's up first podcast. This message comes from NPR sponsor Synchrony bank, empowering you to tackle your savings goals with flexible access to your money and no monthly fees or minimums. It's never been easier to take control of your financial future. Go to synchronybank.com. nPR member, FDIC here at Shortwave space.

Daniel Estrin
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