Support is eroding. Can President Biden hang onto the nomination?

This episode explores the growing concerns within the Democratic Party about President Joe Biden's ability to run for a second term due to his declining public support and perceived effectiveness.

1. President Biden's public support is waning as questions about his age and capability intensify.
2. Despite criticisms, Biden remains resolute in continuing his campaign, emphasizing his alignment with the voter's choice.
3. The episode underscores a significant divide within the Democratic Party, with some members openly calling for Biden to withdraw.
4. Biden’s campaign strategy involves dismissing polling data and focusing on direct voter engagement.
5. The upcoming NATO summit and other public appearances are critical for Biden to reaffirm his leadership and address party concerns.

1: Opening Analysis

Overview of Biden’s declining support due to concerns about his age and effectiveness. Mary Louise Kelly: "Long simmering concerns about President Biden's age and whether he is fit to serve a second term, they exploded."

2: The Campaign's Response

Biden’s efforts to reassure the public and assert his capability through various public appearances. President Biden: "I know how to tell the truth."

3: Internal Party Dynamics

Discussion on the growing friction between Biden and Democratic leaders in Congress. Evan Osnos: "Biden answered that call by saying, I am not going anywhere."

4: Public and Media Perceptions

Analysis of how Biden’s communication strategies are being received by the public and the media. Evan Osnos: "He said, elites are trying to get me out."

5: Looking Ahead

Speculation on Biden's future strategies and the potential impact of external events like the NATO summit. Mary Louise Kelly: "Does the NATO summit happening in DC this week alter the calculation in any way?"

• Engage in informed discussions about political leadership and its challenges.
• Consider the impact of media on public perception and its role in political campaigns.
• Reflect on the importance of voter engagement in shaping political outcomes.
• Stay informed about political events and their broader implications.
• Participate actively in the electoral process to influence outcomes.

On June 27th, long-simmering concerns about President Biden's age – and whether he's fit to serve a second term – exploded after a disastrous debate performance.

Biden has been trying to clean up the mess ever since. First at a fiery rally in North Carolina. And some ten days after the debate in a one-on-one interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos.

Neither event accomplished the goal of shoring up support for Biden, and now members of Congress are questioning whether the 46th President should remain the democratic nominee.

Evan Osnos, New Yorker staff writer and author of a biography on Joe Biden, weighs in on the Biden campaign at a crossroads.

People

Joe Biden, George Stephanopoulos, Evan Osnos, Nancy Pelosi

Guest Name(s):

Evan Osnos

Content Warnings:

None

Speaker A
Making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the, with the COVID excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with, look, if we finally beat Medicare on. June 27, long simmering concerns about President Biden's age and whether he is fit to serve a second term, they exploded. I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition? If he were my patient, if he were my dad, frankly, I would want to get more testing done. Some 24 hours later, Biden tried to put those questions to rest at a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.

President Biden
I don't walk as easily as I used to. I don't speak as smoothly as I used to. I don't debate as well as I used to. What I do know. I know how to tell the truth.

Mary Louise Kelly
But concerns persisted. A week later, Biden used a sit down interview with ABC News George Stephanopoulos to try to staunch concerns, saying that the debate was a bad night. And when Stephanopoulos asked how the president would feel if Donald Trump were re elected in November, Biden said, I feel. As long as I gave it my all and I did the goodest job as I know I can do. That's what this is about.

The interview did not accomplish the goal of shoring up support, and now the presidents support within his own party is weakening, including among some top Democrats in Congress who are calling for the president to drop out of the race. Consider President Biden is fighting to hang on to the democratic nomination. Will he?

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Mary Louise Kelly
It's consider this from NPR. It is time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump. Those are the words of President Biden in a letter he sent Monday to congressional Democrats. Over the weekend, more democratic lawmakers privately called on Biden to step aside. Let someone else be the partys presidential nominee.

Bidens response? Nope. Im staying in this race. Well, here to talk with us about the Biden campaign at a crossroads is Evan Osnos. Hes a staff writer for the New Yorker and the author of a biography of Joe Biden.

Evan Osnos
Hey, Evan, thanks, Mary Louise. Glad to join you. Start there. With that growing friction we're seeing between President Biden and fellow Democrats in Congress, I will note that on Sunday, four more House Democrats, all leaders on key committees, told colleagues that Biden should step down. Here is how Biden answered that call.

Mary Louise Kelly
This was him today on MSNBC's morning jail. I am not going anywhere. I wouldn't be running if I didn't absolutely believe that I am the best candidate to beat Donald Trump in 2024. Evan Osnos, what should we make of this moment in which we find ourselves? This is a day in which he's come out punching, actually, after about a week or ten days of being very much on the back foot when it felt as if there was this strong chorus of voices, both in the press and then also increasingly from some members of his party, calling for him to step aside.

Evan Osnos
He came back pretty definitively, both in that appearance on morning Joe and also in a letter to Congress in which he, he didn't equivocate much at all. He said, I am in this. And I think importantly what he said is that the voters in the primary put me here and I am going to fulfill that commitment. That's interesting. I was noting some of the words he was using in that morning Joe interview today.

Mary Louise Kelly
He said, elites are trying to get me out. And I was curious about that choice of language. Yeah, it's a pretty resonant concept for him. This is something I think you're going to hear more of from him, which is, you know, he's positioning himself as the person that the voters installed. And when he talks about elites, what he's saying is that the pundits, the reporters, the people, as he would put it, who think that they know better, which is the phrase that he used today, are trying to push him out.

Evan Osnos
And this is a theme that is very much a part of his history. You know, he has never been, in his own mind, a real insider in politics. No, he's Scranton, Joe. Exactly. And that's a big piece of how he sees it.

Mary Louise Kelly
Like a lot of Americans, we, I'm sure, both watched the interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC. President Biden was pushed on his debate performance. He wrote it off as a bad night. I want to put to you, Evan, a question that you pose in your latest piece on the at what point does political conviction curdle into something closer to denial? Do you have an answer to that?

Evan Osnos
Well, running a campaign and being a candidate really requires a level of projection of self narrative. You have to be able to tell yourself that you can and should and will be president. And yet, at the same time, there comes a point at which the data, the cold, hard science of the election, may tell you something else. Are you talking about polls? I mean, what is the cold, hard science of this?

Well, to give you one data point right now, there has never been a president in recent memory with approval ratings as low as his, who has gone on to win reelection. That's a fact that is very hard to explain away. His personal view and the view of the advisors very close to him is that that approval rating doesn't reflect the full reality. They are genuinely doubtful about the, the quality of polling now, and people can argue with that, but I'm just trying to tell you their view. And then they also believe that as the campaign goes on, people will become more supportive of him as they realize what they don't like and remember what they don't like about Donald Trump.

The problem is, is that that theory, which was the one they expressed to me back in January, remains their theory of the case and in some ways has not accommodated, as far as we can see, to the surge of concern around his performance in the debate, which was, in its own way, indelible. I'm curious, Evan Osnos, just what you are seeing as someone who has sat down one on one with Biden. I was going back and looking at what you wrote after you interviewed him in January. And of that interview, you said his mind seemed unchanged. He never bungled a name or a date.

Mary Louise Kelly
From what you can glimpse is the Biden you sat down with six months ago. Six, seven months ago, a different Biden from the one we just saw on that debate stage. The one we saw on the debate stage was completely different than the Biden I saw in January. The person I saw in January was much more like that Biden we saw at the State of the union, who was, no question, 81 years old, but fiery and pretty much able to accomplish the political task of the moment. And that's not what we saw on the debate stage.

Evan Osnos
And so the question really becomes, I think Nancy Pelosi put it best. Was this an episode that we saw on that debate stage, or is it a condition? And I think what we know at the moment is that there are moments when he rises and falls. And the person that we are now going to need to see as an electorate and as a student of these questions is, does Biden have the capacity to come back and demonstrate a consistent ability to meet the expectations, the challenges, pressures of the moment? What kind of window does Biden have as he navigates this huge decision?

Mary Louise Kelly
I will point out there's a NATO summit happening in DC this week. Does that alter the calculation in any way? It does factor in, because I think that some members of Congress are going to be inclined to say, let's take a deep breath for a second. Let's not necessarily have our big family feud right in front of all the allies because our allies are seeking reassurance of the stability of american leadership. So that may add one more beat to the process.

Evan Osnos
I think there's also a genuine effort here to try to get a clearer sense of where Congress is on this. There are some members of Congress who've come out in support of him and some, of course, who have come out opposed to him. And short of an actual vote, the real challenge is to try to fashion some sense of consensus, and that is a hard thing to measure, and it could hardly be more important than trying to get it on this question. Evan Osnos, staff writer for the New Yorker and author of a biography of Joe Biden. Evan Osnos, what a moment.

Mary Louise Kelly
Thank you. My pleasure. Thanks for having me. This episode was produced by Katherine Fink. It was edited by Courtney Dorning.

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