He may be a longshot, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could impact the election

This episode evaluates the potential impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent presidential candidacy on the upcoming election.

1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy is gaining attention from significant political figures and the media.
2. His independent run could potentially sway the election results by attracting a small but critical percentage of voters.
3. Kennedy’s mixed public image, combining anti-vaccine rhetoric with environmental activism, adds complexity to his candidacy.
4. Historical examples of third-party impacts are discussed, underscoring the potential significance of Kennedy’s run.
5. The episode explores the strategic responses of the Trump and Biden campaigns to Kennedy’s candidacy.

1: Introduction to RFK Jr.'s Candidacy

Scott Detrow introduces Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s transition from a Democratic candidate to an independent. Key points include Trump’s shifting opinion and Biden's strategic non-mention of Kennedy while acknowledging his family.

• Scott Detrow: "Now Kennedy is running as an independent, and Trump is talking about him a little differently."

2: Historical Context and Potential Impact

The episode discusses the historical impact of third-party candidates and parallels with Kennedy's current run.

• Scott Detrow: "Third party and independent candidates face exceptionally long odds in American politics."

3: Kennedy’s Political and Public Persona

Detailing Kennedy’s controversial positions and the dichotomy in his public persona, from environmental advocate to vaccine skeptic.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: "The minute they hand you that vaccine passport, every right that you have is transformed into a privilege."

4: Discussion with Experts

Experts analyze Kennedy’s potential impact on the election, discussing strategic implications and voter sentiment.

• Barbara Perry: "His first appeal, Scott, is his name... But he has one of the most important names of a political dynasty in this country."

1. Stay informed about all candidates in an election to understand their policies and potential impact.
2. Engage in discussions about the role of third-party candidates in shaping political discourse.
3. Evaluate the credibility of information regarding political candidates’ stances, especially on contentious issues like vaccines.
4. Consider historical examples to understand the potential outcomes of current elections.
5. Participate in electoral processes to have a say in your country’s leadership.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have turned their attention on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently. And the fact that the major party candidates are either trying to criticize him or praise him is a sign that his independent candidacy could have a real impact.

People

Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Companies

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Scott Detrow
This is how former President Donald Trump referred to Robert F. Kennedy junior last June, back when Kennedy was a candidate for the democratic presidential nomination. You know, he's a common sense guy, and so am I. So whether you're conservative or liberal, common sense is common sense. Just hang in was the advice that he offered in that interview on the Howie Carr show.

Now Kennedy is running as an independent, and Trump is talking about him a little differently. In a recent post on his truth social platform, Trump called him, quote, a Democrat plant, a radical left liberal who's been put in place in order to help crooked Joe Biden, the worst president in the history of the United States, get reelected. That's the end of the quote. And Trump is not the only one paying attention to RFK junior s candidacy. I don't want to become emotional, but what an incredible honor to have the support of the Kennedy family.

That's President Joe Biden. A few weeks ago at a campaign event in Philadelphia touting the endorsement of more than a dozen members of the Kennedys. Though he didn't mention RFK junior by name, he name checked his father as a political guiding light. The principles Bobby Kennedy embodied were principles taught by my grandparents and parents around our kitchen table. And that's not hyperbole.

Joe Biden
That's a fact. All of this attention from the major party candidates is one of several signs that RFK junior s independent candidacy might have a real impact. Its early, but when pollsters include him in presidential surveys, hes consistently getting around 10% of the vote. And Kennedy is generating a lot of news coverage. RFK junior challenging Donald Trump to a.

Scott Detrow
One on one debate, even if it isnt always positive. Strange health news about presidential candidate Robert Kennedy junior. What we know about a worm that he says got into his brain and ate part of his brain and then died. And of course, he has one of the most storied names in american politics. Kennedy, Kennedy, Kennedy, Kennedy.

Consider this. Third party and independent candidates face exceptionally long odds in american politics. But a look at presidential history shows that Robert F. Kennedy Junior could still be a big factor in this election.

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Scott Detrow
It'S consider this from NPR. Robert F. Kennedy Junior is a difficult man to pin down. In the nineties and two thousands, he made a name for himself as an environmental lawyer. Here he is in an NPR story from 2001, leading an effort to sue industrial hog farms for air and water pollution.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
I've been suing polluters for 16 years, and I can tell you they have lots of resources. In more recent years, he has promoted false claims about vaccines. During the COVID pandemic, he became a leading figure in the push against vaccine mandates. The minute they hand you that vaccine passport, every right that you have is transformed into a privilege contingent upon your obedience to arbitrary government dictates it will make you a slave. That's Kennedy at a rally on the steps of the Lincoln memorial in 2022.

Scott Detrow
He went on to invoke Anne Frank and suggested that modern public health measures were laying the groundwork for a totalitarian state more restrictive than in Nazi Germany. As a candidate, Kennedy insists that he is not anti vaccine. He laid out his priorities in a recent interview on MSNBC's the Beat. It's a grab bag of good governments type reforms. I'd stop the lying in government.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The day I come into office, I'm going to issue an executive order that any government official that lies to the american public in conjunction with his federal duties will be dismissed. Also, health issues like his promise that he would end America's, quote, chronic disease epidemic, though it's not entirely clear how. Above all, Kennedy insists that he is not a spoiler. A spoiler is somebody who cannot win, whose continued participation in the election will disrupt the expectations of somebody who can win or I can win. But what does the history of independent and third party candidates say about RFK Jr.

Scott Detrow
S chances to talk about that? I caught up with two people who take a long view on the presidency. Barbara Perry is a presidential historian at the University of Virginia's Miller center and has written several books about the Kennedys. Hey, Barbara. Hi, Scott.

And Bernard Tomas is an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University in Georgia and author of the demise and rebirth of American Third parties. Welcome to consider this. Thank you. Barbara, let me start with you. How would you describe the, this candidacy?

RFK Junior s run for the White House. What would you say his appeal is right now to voters? His first appeal, Scott, is his name, and we always talk about name recognition for candidates. Do they have it or not? But he has one of the most important names of a political dynasty in this country, along with the Adamses and the Roosevelts and the Bushes.

And for some, it's still a golden name. And there are some people who really dislike the Kennedys. So in that sense, it can be a handicap. But that's the first thing that I think most people think of when they hear of his candidacy. BERNARD there's a lot of other factors that are driving Kennedy's appeal with some voters, and we should mention that vaccine disinformation, vaccine skepticism is a big part of it.

Scott Detrow
But you see that there's also just a lot of dissatisfaction with the major party candidates right now. How does this fit into what we know about major third party runs in the fast? Well, this is the type of moment where third parties actually tended to have been historically most successful in american politics. These moments where the two parties become very polarized, where there's this movement away from the center, and there's a lot of issues with the way that he's running. But in terms of picking a moment to run, this would be it.

A lot of the Kennedy campaign so far has been much more personality driven. When reporters have tried to press him and his campaign on what exactly they would do if he were elected, there's a lot of vague answers. Is that unusual, or is that more along the lines of the norm? When you look at successful, higher profile third party presidential bids? Oh, it's very much not the norm.

Bernard Tomas
I mean, the successful ones have used a strategy referred to as sting like a bee. So the idea of sting like a bee is you tap into that anger with some forms of galvanizing issues, something that really energizes them, and you use that to distinguish yourself from the major parties and to attack them and cause them pain. And the idea is to get the major parties to co opt the issues that the third party candidate is presenting. And so once, like the bee, they sting. They have a tendency then to die.

But the goal of actually influencing policy in America is achieved. This we've seen repeatedly in american history. Now, if you take RFK's approach, what we're seeing is a group of issues that don't necessarily seem to be tapping into any particular group and almost seem self contradictory. I mean, he is very much anti science when it comes to vaccines, but very much pro science when it comes to climate change. And this is going to, I suspect, going to be a real problem as he moves forward.

Scott Detrow
Quick question for both of you before we, we shift gears a little bit. Like I said, Kennedy's polling at around 10% nationally. If you look at a lot of the recent polls, how surprised would you be if he was still at 10% of the polls come November? Extremely. I could be wrong, but generally, it's a drop.

Bernard Tomas
Consider that Perot was the leading candidate in the summer of 1992, and then he ended with 19% of the vote. Still amazingly good by modern standards. But there was that drop, so it always seems to drop. And so I would suspect, based on the historical precedent, that it is likely to drop in his case now as well. But we know, Barbara, we know that the last two presidential elections have been so close.

Scott Detrow
This is such a partisan country that no matter what happens, I think we can expect this to be a race decided by a handful of points and a handful of states. Ralph Nader in 2000 is a very good example that you don't have to draw away that many votes to arguably affect the outcome of a presidential election. Oh, absolutely. It will only take one or two percentage points in some of these swing states. And in fact, in three of them, in 2021, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia, Biden won those by one percentage points or fewer.

So in an individual state, particularly a swing state, as it was the swing state in 2000 with Bush and Gore, that was decided by anywhere from three to 500 votes total. So it only can be a few hundred votes. That could cause a third party candidate to cause one of the two major party candidates to lose. And that could very well happen with someone like Robert Kennedy in the mix. It will depend on how many states, particularly how many swing states, on whose ballot he gets.

And right now, as I see it, it's just Michigan, but he's hoping to get on North Carolina, Nevada, two more swing states. So even a few hundred votes could be the deciding factor and he could represent them. It's been interesting to see both the Biden and Trump campaign. You know, the way that Trump initially was supportive of Kennedy thinking would hurt Biden more, and then suddenly, Trump is critical of him. The Biden campaign really tried to harness the Kennedy family to attack Kennedy.

Scott Detrow
Curious what you both think right now about which major party RFK junior might be hurting more given the mix of appeal here of anti establishment vaccines and nostalgia. The thing with RFK support on the progressive side is it besides general dissatisfaction, it seems to be mostly driven by his last name. But he's taking again the anti vaxxer position, which doesn't really work for progressives. He's avoiding the orgaza issue and has been very pro Israel. It's unlikely that support there is going to sustain itself.

Bernard Tomas
But again, and I really want to emphasize this, there is no way to know at this point who he's going to harm more, which is why both of their alarmed reaction actually makes sense. That was Bernard Tomas of Valdosta State University, author of the Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties, as well as Barbara Perry of the University of Virginia, author of Rose the Life and Times of a Political Matriarch. Thanks to you both. Thank you. Great to be with you.

Scott Detrow
This episode was produced by Connor Donovan and edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. And one more thing before we go. You can now enjoy the consider this newsletter. We will help you break down a major story of the day, but you also get to know our producers and hosts and some moments of joy from the ALl Things ConSIdered team.

You can sign up@npr.org. Considerthisnewsletter it's consider this from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.

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