Can the U.S. force a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas?

This episode explores the complex dynamics of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, focusing on the U.S.'s role in brokering a ceasefire.

1. The U.S. is actively promoting a ceasefire plan, which Israel has nominally accepted but with reservations.
2. Political dynamics in Israel complicate the acceptance and implementation of the ceasefire, especially due to Netanyahu's reliance on far-right coalition partners.
3. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is escalating, with significant casualties and displacement reported.
4. The geopolitical implications of the conflict and the ceasefire are profound, influencing U.S. foreign policy and regional stability.
5. There is a lack of agreement on key elements of the ceasefire plan, including the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

1: Hostage Rescue and Political Fallout

The episode opens with the news of Israeli forces rescuing hostages in Gaza, setting the stage for a discussion on the political repercussions in Israel, including Benny Gantz's resignation. Mary Louise Kelly: "It was a moment of overwhelming relief for Israelis."

2: U.S. Ceasefire Efforts

Discussion on the U.S.'s role in pushing for a ceasefire, featuring comments from U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the U.N. Security Council's involvement. Jake Sullivan: "The best way to end this war is for Hamas to say yes to the deal President Biden announced."

3: Humanitarian Crisis

Insights into the dire situation in Gaza, focusing on the humanitarian impact of the conflict, including the high civilian casualties. Anis Baba: "Artillery everywhere, airstrikes everywhere. We don't know exactly what's happening here."

1. Stay informed on international conflicts and their developments.
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On Saturday, Israeli special forces rescued four hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, killing at least 270 Palestinians and injuring hundreds in the process.

The rescue of the hostages was a moment of triumph for the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but he didn't have long to bask in it.

Benny Gantz, a centrist member of Israel's unity war cabinet, announced his resignation on Sunday, over Netanyahu's management of the war in Gaza. After Gantz's resignation, Netanyahu will be even more reliant on far-right members of his coalition, who have vocally opposed efforts to broker a cease-fire.

The U.S. continues to push a cease-fire proposal outlined last month, and on Monday the U.N. Security council passed a U.S.-drafted resolution supporting that deal.

NPR's Michele Kelemen and Daniel Estrin help us get a sense of what this weekend's events might mean for the war and its ending.

People

Jake Sullivan, Benny Gantz, Benjamin Netanyahu

Content Warnings:

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Mary Louise Kelly
It was a moment of overwhelming relief for Israelis.

Thats a beach lifeguard announcing the news that special forces had rescued four hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. It was also a moment of triumph for the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but he did not have long to bask in it.

Benny Gantz, a centrist member of Israels unity war cabinet, announced his resignation on Sunday over Netanyahus management of the war in Gaza.

He said Netanyahu was prioritizing his own political survival over the fate of the hostages in captivity. Gantz was a moderating voice in the war cabinet. After his resignation, Netanyahu will be even more reliant on far right members of his coalition who have vocally opposed efforts to broker a ceasefire. Amid all this, the US continues to push a ceasefire proposal outlined last month. Here's national security adviser Jake Sullivan on CNN on Sunday.

Jake Sullivan
The best way to get all of the hostages home and to protect palestinian civilians is to end this war. And the best way to end this war is for Hamas to say yes to the deal President Biden announced and that Israel has accepted. The UN Security Council passed a US drafted resolution supporting that deal on Monday, but it's not at all clear Israel will accept it. On Sunday, Netanyahu called for total victory, which appears incompatible with the ceasefire proposal. Without a ceasefire, Palestinians will continue to suffer.

Mary Louise Kelly
Saturday's hostage rescue took place in a densely populated refugee camp in Gaza.

NPR's producer in Gaza, Anis Baba, was in the area and ran for cover at a United nations school. Artillery everywhere, airstrikes everywhere. We don't know exactly what's happening here. People are only trying to get inside of the school in order to take a shelter. Gaza's health ministry said Israel killed more than 270 Palestinians during the operation, including at least 64 children.

Hundreds more people were reported injured. Consider this after a weekend that brought many Israelis relief and many Palestinians more anguish, there is still no clear path to end this war.

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It's consider this from NPR. The UN Security Council vote in support of the ceasefire proposal is noteworthy but symbolic. Any durable agreement will ultimately come down to Israel and Hamas. And so US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in the Middle East Monday trying to get regional leaders on board. If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say yes.

Antony Blinken
If you want to alleviate the terrible suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, press Hamas to say yes. If you want to get all the hostages home, press Hamas to say yes. To get a sense of what this weekend's events might mean for the war and its ending, I spoke with two NPR reporters, Michelle Kellerman, who covers the State Department, and Daniel Estrin, based in Israel. Welcome. Hi, Mary Louise.

Mary Louise Kelly
Hi there, Michelle. You start this ceasefire plan that's on the table, that America's top diplomat is trying to rally the world behind. What's in it? What are the details? Yeah.

Michelle Kelemen
So it's what President Biden laid out at the end of May. It's this three phased approach to ending the war. It starts with a six week ceasefire and the release of some of the hostages. Israel would have to release hundreds of palestinian prisoners. That number still has to be negotiated.

And once all that starts, Israel and Hamas are supposed to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and Israel would withdraw from Gaza. Hamas wants a guarantee of all of that now. But this is a phased approach with lots of potential pitfalls and no guarantees. And so what blinken is trying to do is to get more countries to press Hamas to agree to it. As you heard, the US also brought the plan to the UN Security Council this afternoon and got an almost unanimous endorsement.

Russia abstained, but everyone else voted for the resolution, which the US says sends a clear message to Hamas to accept the deal and for both Hamas and Israel to start implementing it. Daniel, just to remind people of the backdrop, one of Israel's main goals all along has been the release of its hostages. Then it launched a raid this weekend that freed four of those hostages who were being held in Gaza. How does that rescue, how does that play into these ceasefire talks? Well, I think for Israelis, that hostage rescue this weekend only reinforced that the military cannot free all of the hostages in that kind of special ops rescue.

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And the only way to get all the hostages out alive, as even the military spokesman himself has said, is through a deal with Hamas. So there is, you know, increasing public pressure in Israel to strike that deal. From Israels security establishment perspective, they feel it is the right time for the deal, mostly because of the battlefield accomplishments that they see in Gaza, the israeli military taking over the Gaza border with Egypt, going after Hamas and Rafa. And they also believe that a ceasefire deal could actually quiet the northern border with Lebanon, where theres been an uptick in Hezbollah fire. The question really, Mary Louise, is if there is political will in Israel.

You know, Blinken has said that Hamas is the one that needs to be pushed on this ceasefire deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu truly does not seem willing to take the political risk necessary to really embrace this ceasefire deal because his far right political partners oppose it. They oppose an end to the war without Hamas destroyed. From the Hamas perspective, I should add that, you know, this raid, this hostage raid killed more than 200 Palestinians, as you mentioned. We'll have to see how much of a setback that could be for the ceasefire efforts.

But their position remains they won't agree to a ceasefire deal until Israel, until there's a guarantee that Israel really means it's going to be the end of the war. Michelle, pick up on the point that we just heard Daniel nodding. Secretary Blinken says Hamas is the problem. Israel has accepted the deal. It's Hamas that's holding out.

Mary Louise Kelly
But Israel has not accepted crucial elements of this plan, at least as it was set out by President Biden. Right. How is he squaring that? Yeah, I mean, us officials have repeatedly said that Israel has agreed to the plan despite what Netanyahu says for his own political reasons. And in fact, Mary Louise, the UN Security Council, which the US drafted, says that Israel has endorsed it.

Michelle Kelemen
So in a way, the US is trying to box Israel in. If the UN Security Council and much of the world now backs this plan and pressures Hamas to sign up for it, it will be harder for Netanyahu not to at least start this process. I mean, it's a gamble, of course. And there's a lot of political issues, issues at play, as Daniel has suggested. Is it also a case of possibly different political timelines playing out here, one from the Biden administration, one from Benjamin Netanyahu?

Mary Louise Kelly
Daniel? Yeah. I mean, I think there are two different political timelines here, at least two different ones. I mean, Biden wants a ceasefire deal really soon because the war is hurting his reelection campaign. He wants to advance this historic treaty between Saudi Arabia and Israel as part of this grand bargain to, to end the war and to do all that before the elections.

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Netanyahu is on almost an opposite timeline. Many israeli analysts believe that Netanyahu actually would probably rather wait for a potential Trump victory because he may think that Trump can offer him a better deal for saudi israeli relations. Trump would not insist that Israel make concessions to the Palestinians as part of that deal. And then, you know, Netanyahu has this third timeline, which is his own political reality in Israel, the potential of new elections. His main political rival, Benny Gantz, resigned from the war cabinet yesterday.

He's calling for elections in the fall. There's a good chance Netanyahu could lose those elections. Well, let's look ahead. Michelle Kellerman, I gave you the first word. I'll give you the last word, too, because we love you.

Mary Louise Kelly
We were talking about the vote at the UN today. Where does the Biden administration take this next? Well, I mean, I think that vote should give a boost to Secretary Blinken, who remains in the region. And he's heading to Jordan tomorrow for a big conference on humanitarian aid for Gaza. So that should give him a big boost that the US is doing something.

Michelle Kelemen
It has some support from the region. Hes also planning to visit Qatar, which is a key country in these ceasefire talks. You know, Hamas has an office in Doha, Qatar, and thats a place where they receive the formal responses from Hamas political figures. Blinken also visited Egypt, which is the other key player in these negotiations. So hes really just trying to get these talks going and to get this first phase started.

Mary Louise Kelly
That is NPR diplomatic correspondent Michelle Kellerman and international correspondent Daniel Estron. Thanks to you both. Thank you. You're welcome. This episode was produced by Connor Donovan and Noah Caldwell.

It was edited by Courtney Dorning and James Heider. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. And one more thing before we go. You can now enjoy the consider this newsletter. Just like the podcast, we help you break down a major story of the day.

You'll also get to know our producers and our hosts, and we'll share some moments of joy from the all things considered team. You can sign up@npr.org. consider this newsletter.

It's consider this from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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