In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work

Ryan
Welcome to bankless. But this time we explore the frontier of the economy. We're not talking about the crypto economy today. We're talking about the broader economy, as usual. This is Ryan.

Sean Adams. I'm here with David Hoffman, and we're here to help you become bankless. The question today, how many of us really understand how the economy works? I think a lot of us have gotten our education on the economy, on money, on these sorts of things through crypto, myself and David included. But there's still gaps in our knowledge, like the labor market or the housing market, and also the reflexive nature of consumer sentiment.

How do all these things fit together? Our guest today is Kyla Scanlon. She's wrote a book on all of this called in this economy that explains how markets and money really work. I think this is a shortcut episode to leveling up your knowledge on the economy and finance in general. A few things we talk about.

Number one, Kyla's term, the vibe session. She coined this term, what do vibes have to do with the economy? We talk about that first and also her mental model for how this all works. She calls it the economic kingdom, how the deciders like the Fed and the government tweak the dials of our economy. We also talk about the housing crisis, wealth inequality, the labor market, energy prices, and how all this ties into the economy.

And finally, we end with financial literacy, the superpower, how you can apply what you learn to make your life better and also to help those around you. We've been watching Kyla since she, I think, just started doing some financial skits, some financial jokes about markets and the economy on TikTok, and that ultimately blossomed into just a full blown career as an educator, but specifically an educator, I think, towards younger generations. I remember when we were starting the bankless podcast, Ryan. We would frequently talk about how there's just a complete lack of education around money and finance in the world. Like, it's not taught in primary school, is not taught in college.

Sean Adams
And even people that take business and finance, like, degrees are still left with, like, big gaps of knowledge. And Kyla is contributing to, like, filling those voids that are left in our typical education paths. And she's doing it meeting people where they are, which is on TikTok, on Instagram, on Twitter. And so she's been extremely successful in just raw education of the masses about things that I think have been neglected in typical educational settings. And so it's pretty cool to have been able to watch Kyla's arc grow and crescendo into this book that we are going to cover a portion of here on the podcast today.

Ryan
Well, let's get right to the episode with Kyla. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this possible, including our number one recommended crypto exchange and the way to get into the crypto economy that is Kraken. Go create an account if you want. A crypto trading experience backed by world class security and award winning support teams, then head over to Kraken, one of the longest standing and most secure crypto platforms in the world. Kraken is on a journey to build a more accessible, inclusive and fair financial system, making it simple and secure for everyone everywhere.

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Ryan
And I would say an all around brilliant explainer of things that are hard to explain, like the economy. It's kind of hard to explain. Or money. And she wrote this new book. It's called in this economy.

I actually have like an early edition of the book. So the edition that you can go buy pretty soon is going to be even better than this. And the subtext is it's how money and markets really work. And if I were to give a synopsis of this book, it's kind of like an econ textbook that you can actually read. It's almost like Ray Dalio for Gen Z, I would say, and I would say it's literally the best resource for getting up to speed on these topics.

You know, money, finance, the economy, all these things. I'm gonna say some more good things throughout the episode, but let's just bring her on. Kyla, welcome to bankless. Oh, thanks for having me. Excited to be here.

Sean Adams
Yeah, it's been a long time, Kyla. It has been. And kind of just making sure listeners know a little bit of your lore, you introduced the term vibe session, I think around 2021 2022. And this term vibe session has become so widely accepted, understood, and just leveraged in both mainstream media, financial media, even in academic settings. I've heard this word be used to the point of which, like, I kind of consider this, like the vibes economy.

The vibe session as, like, successfully contributed knowledge to the archive of just, like, human knowledge. It's just like, David uses this term all the time. He will not stop using the term. That's awesome. I think, in the dictionary.

Kyla Scanlon
Yeah, right. If it's in the dictionary, you know, it's fully merged with, like, human consciousness. The idea of the vibe session, I think, really helps people understand the state of the financial world post Covid and its adoption as a term has also kind of risen alongside yourself as a rise of a financial and economics social media educator. Can you just, like, talk about this experience, the rise of this, like, vibe session idea, and why you think it was actually so helpful in the mainstream conversation about, like, helping people understand the state of the economy and just, like, understand the economy at large? Yeah, yeah.

So I wrote the piece in July 2022, and then New York Times opinion picked it up, which is kind of when it all started. And the idea of that piece was to explain the disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic data. So people were feeling pretty bad, even though, like, GDP was going up and inflation was going down and the labor market was okay. And for me, I had, like, hundreds and hundreds of comments every day on all my videos of people telling me that, like, they were feeling pretty bad, even though I was telling them the economy was good. And they were like, are you a psyop?

Like, what's happening? And I was like, am I? And so I wrote this piece to try to explore that. And the vibes really do matter. And it sounds so silly, but it's just the same idea as reflexivity, which is coined by George Soros, or animal spirits, which was coined by Keynes, is that, like, human beings are not rational, right?

Like, they're not rational, and we can't expect them to be so, which is, you know, what economic models rely on. And so the vibe session is just sort of like, how people feel matters. Like, inflation expectations really matter, how people feel about their economic circumstances really matter. And then alongside the vibes, there is a structural affordability crisis. Right?

Like, housing is so unaffordable, and, you know, student loan debt is really bad. People feel like they're not able to maybe get the jobs that they want. And so I think all of those go hand in hand with, like, the negativity that we've been seeing. And there's a lot of other reasons for the negativity. But, like, how people feel matters is the sort of the takeaway from the vibe economy.

Sean Adams
I think one explanation as to, like, why this term got so well received by people is that it made people feel really heard. And there's, like, a big disconnect from the world of money, finance, economics, and, like, the average person who just goes to work every single day, people don't enjoy feeling like a metric. They don't feel like enjoying being like a number. But the vibe session, vibe economy, I think, also really helped people understand, like, exactly the relationship between people's, like, emotional sentiment state the economy. And I think this term really helped to bridge those two things.

And I'm wondering if that had any sort of influence in, like, how you wrote this book, why you wrote this book, and the contents of this book. Because I think one theme of the book is connecting vibes to markets. Yeah, no, definitely. The way that I describe my work is like a human centric analysis, because I try to always center people at the forefront of economic analysis because they can sort of get left behind in some of the economic models. And a lot of researchers have done a great job at this, like Stephanie Stanchieva over at Harvard, Isabella Weber at UMass Amherst.

Kyla Scanlon
And so I think a lot of people have sort of reconsidered the idea that people are the economy, and I've put them at the forefront even way before I was doing it. Right. But, yeah, I mean, I think that was the idea of the book is how do you write something that's fun? Like, there's 60 illustrations. It's sort of structured with each chapter being a standalone chapter.

Like, you don't have to read the book in succession. And there's a lot of charts. And, yeah, I think that the tough thing about the economy is when you talk to people about it, like, I run into this all the time. Like, I tell people that I work on economics, education, they're like, I hate the economy. And it's like, well, you're a part of it.

Like, sorry. Like, the coffee that you buy, you know, the microphone that I'm talking into, the computer that I'm staring into. Like, all of that are components of the economy. And I think it's very similar to how we all know that the mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell. I feel like we should know something about the economy in a similar sense.

Like, we should know what the Federal Reserve does and why they do what they do, because it has such a big influence on our lives. And so that's why I wrote the book is, like, to be this toolbox. And I think, like, centering it on the concept of vibes is important because then people don't feel left behind by conversation, which sometimes economics can drift into, where it's like money matters the most. It's like, well, no, people probably do. And that was the goal of the book.

Ryan
We will return to the vibe economy and explain that in some more detail. But let's get the overall picture of the book. And I want to ask the question. I think Morgan Housel actually has been, and a thankless guest. He wrote the intro to this, and it's a fantastic intro.

But I want to ask the basic question from your perspective, Kyla. How come no one understands money, finance, the economy? And not only do they not understand these things, when they hear these terms, they, like, run as fast as possible in the other direction. Why is that? I mean, I think the reason that people run when they hear these terms like money, finance, economy, is because it's so personal.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, all of us have a really personal interaction, all have a personal inflation rate. We all have a personal interaction with the economy based on our job, on our income, on our retirement plan, on our healthcare. And so I think that's kind of part of it is like, people want to keep some elements of that a secret. And then I think money is, like, really big and confusing. Like, the way that it works is weird.

Like, what even is a bank, like bankless, right? And I think, like, that's a big part of it is like one of the chapters is this economic kingdom, which was my attempt to draw interconnectivity between all of the various topics, like fiscal policy policy, monetary policy, inflation, GDP, labor market, private market, VC's, all of those things. Because I think it feels so disparate and big and confusing. And you kind of have to, like, solar system it and see all the connectivity. And I think for people, it's my.

Like, I do this all the time. I'm so avoidant. Like, if I don't understand something, I avoid it. And I think that's kind of just what people do is, like, they're not given the tools and it's not their fault. But if you're not given the tools and you don't know how to access the tools, of course you're gonna avoid it, right?

Ryan
Here's the crazy thing. I did my entire undergrad in business, and I realized at the end of that, I still didn't understand the economy. I understood snippets, right? And I read all the textbooks. I was actually a fine student.

I did the assignments, but I didn't really understand until all of this works, until I kind of took it in my own hands and actually crypto was part of my whole financial education. I had to learn all of the other bits and pieces. I want to ask you another question, is some people might still think if they look at your book or the stuff that you're publishing, okay. So you can help me understand these things. And you're using terms that like, I understand, but like what's the payoff?

Why does it even matter if I understand these things? Like what's the carrot? Like at some level, who cares how the economy works? Can I actually change the outcome? Is there a payoff to actually understanding some of the things that you understand?

Kyla Scanlon
Yeah, I don't think people need to understand everything as in depth as I do. I don't think that's necessary. I don't think you need to know like the calculation for owner's equivalent rent that goes into CPI. Just like any industry, right? Like you don't need to know how the launch codes work for the nukes.

Like you just got to know that they're there. And I think that's a big part of it. But I think like in order to be an informed citizen and like make good decisions as a voter, to like engage with the labor market, to understand inflation, right. Like understand why your grocery bill is going up and like why it might stabilize, to understand the housing market, you do need to understand the economy. I think that like the way that I always talk about it is that if people understand the economy a little bit better, hopefully they'll make better decisions.

And like a lot of better decisions compounding on one another, hopefully would create a better society. And so that's kind of the way that I think about it is if people have sort of, they minimize the cognitive dissonance that comes with interacting with a system that you don't understand how it works and you're able to make better decisions around that system, the benefits will increase from there. And so I think that's the big thing is it's important to understand because you are the economy. As silly as that sounds, it's true. Yeah.

Ryan
I would add to that. I do think that understanding, like finance, understanding the economy, at least at a base level, is basically a superpower. And if you like don't understand these things, you're almost playing behind. It's almost like playing some board game and you just don't know how the rules work and you're just kind of like moving your pieces in a haphazard way. I think some level of base understanding is actually like really important not only for society, but for individuals, like, just to, like, plan their life and to, like, get ahead.

And at some level, if you don't understand the dials of the system and how it might be, like, pushed or you even rigged in some cases in one direction or another, you are at a complete disadvantage in the board game of life that you're playing. It's something I've realized even just like concepts like compound interest. Like, if you don't understand that, my God, it is difficult to get through as an adult. Yeah. Let's start here, Kyla, with the actual book.

And so you've got this broken into a few different sections. You've got the deciders where you talk about the people and the institutions, like those that tweak the economic dials. And then you're also talking about the economies, the metrics, the markets, that kind of thing. And then, like, what we can do about. I want to start with that concept that you started with.

And I'll show this, like, for YouTube watchers as well. This is the economic kingdom that Kyla was talking about earlier. First of all, by the way, you do all of your own illustrations, is that right? Yeah. You do all your own tricks?

Kyla Scanlon
Yep. That's all my art, my beautiful art. Okay, so this is great. I love this. So, like, can you describe what we are looking at here?

Ryan
This is the economic kingdom illustration we have. I'll start with my description. Some various castles here. We've got the castle of monetary policy. That's a big looking castle.

I guess that's where Powell and friends live. We got fiscal policy, we've got the dollar. They're all connect. Like certain things like labor market and inflation are sort of connected to monetary policy. We've got roads, we've got bridges, this sort of thing.

Can you start with this mental model? Why do you see things as an economic kingdom? And, like, who are some of the main players here? Yeah, so this is kind of like. Do you remember those rugs that you'd play with when you were a kid of like, you would draw your finger along the road and there'd be like, houses on the road?

Kyla Scanlon
You know what I'm talking about? Yeah, totally. Yeah. In your preschool, right. Like when you were child.

That's kind of like how I think about the economy is like that rug model where it's like they are all interconnected. And so I tried to do that sort of model here with the economic kingdom. So monetary policy and fiscal policy are like on their own little castle land because they're the policy land. The US dollar interacts with monetary policy. Monetary policy interacts with developed and emerging markets.

Monetary policy is shooting a cannon into the labor market and inflation, which are the two levers that monetary policy ends up impacting the jobs market as well as price stability. And they're using a cannon because they're raising rates, which I explained later on in the book, inflation impacts the housing market. And so it's just showing, like, they're in the. In the newest version on the book, there's an updated version of the map as well, with a little bit more castles. But it's just meant to show the interconnectivity of all these things.

There's a crypto castle going into the stock market. Right. Thank you for that. Thanks for creating the bright, shiny lights that are. Yeah, what are these?

Ryan
Okay, so on the crypto castle, it looks like we have some signs saying, is that money? It looks like a stadium. Yeah, we got the stadium, we got the advertising. The FDX arena, maybe. Yay, crypto.com arena.

Kyla Scanlon
But yeah, yeah. So this is the idea of the economic kingdom, and it's the intro to the book because I wanted to set a precedent for the connectivity of the economy because this is like, where I got stuck when I was learning about the economy. I was like, how the heck do all these things interact? Like, is the stock market the economy? Like, what's happening?

And so putting it on this map, I didn't. I wrote this piece. Oh, my God. Back in 2021, the economic kingdom, I think. And I've always used that as a reference since then.

And I thought it would be a good opener to the book, just sort of like setting the stage for connectivity. And the thing is, with the kingdom itself, you could literally draw the biggest map in the world and it still wouldn't be big enough for all the moving pieces of the economy. But I tried to be reductive and get it in there. Yeah. Can we start maybe by talking about monetary policy, then that entire kingdom.

Ryan
So give us the one on one. What does the Fed actually do? Favorite question? Well, you are a known fed simp. I read this in your book as well.

Kyla Scanlon
I think that line got taken out. Oh, really? There's a line for. People will never read this. I have an early edition of the book that says, yeah, Kyla says something like, I'm a well known fed simp in air quotes.

Ryan
I wasn't exactly sure what that meant. I'm gonna go ahead and guess it's an Internet viewer kind of being a troll on YouTube, it kind of fits that bill. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Because, like, this is like one of my problems is I get excited about, like, monetary policy. I love, like, I really like the economy as a concept, almost as like a video game for me.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, not that people's lives are a video game, but like, just how money moves is so fascinating. And so I can get like a little bit too animated, I think, like, yeah, the Fed and I pretend to be Jerome Powell in some of my videos, which are hilarious. So people are like, you're simping, dude. There's no simping here in your explanation. What does the Fed do?

Ryan
No simping. Yeah. Yes. The Federal Reserve is the monetary policy unit of the United States. So it's pseudo governmental, so it's not necessarily part of the government.

Kyla Scanlon
But they do report to Congress and they set monetary policy. And so they are in charge. One of the illustrations shows it. They're in charge of like, walking this tightrope of the economy, balancing both price stability, so making sure inflation doesn't like, destroy everybody, as well as the labor markets, and making sure that anybody who wants a job can have a job, which is called maximum employment. And so they make sure that in inflation is around 2% inflation rate, and then maximum employment doesn't really have a target.

But like, unemployment below 4% is usually like, what the Fed wants to accomplish. And the way that they do this is they have a toolkit. So they manage price stability in the labor market through a toolkit which includes their rates. It includes their balance sheet and includes forward guidance as well as a couple other things. But like, they've raised and lower rates depending on if they want the economy to slow down or speed up.

So they would raise rates, which they have been doing for the past several years, to slow the economy down, because if you make money more expensive, people are going to spend less of it. Less money going around means the economy slows. Means inflation slows. If they wanted to speed things up, which they kind of were doing before the pandemic, they would cut rates. And now that's the conversation that we're having, is like, is the Fed going to cut rates?

Because if they cut rates, that'll speed things up. Money's easier to get. They get going. Balance sheet is a little bit more complicated, but basically another tool that they can use. And then they have forward guidance where they'll have these meetings where they come out and talk and sort of let people know what they think might happen in.

And so that's kind of like monetary policy in a very small nutshell. It is a balance of price stability and labor market. Yeah. That the Federal Reserve, who is a governing body headed by Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as twelve bank presidents, ends up deciding on the FOMC is a subset of that. But yeah, twelve bank presidents.

Sean Adams
So as a representative of the crypto castle, which is connected through the stock market to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, I'm wondering if you can kind of like give your take about kind of the groupthink that comes out of the crypto castle as it relates to the Fed. So you have the bitcoiners who think like, the Fed is a corrupt institution. It's twelve white people behind closed doors that just like, you know, control the earth. Everyone wants the Fed to cut rates so that they can pump our bags. And overall, like, it's a failure of an institution.

It's like maybe a grandiose, like, snapshot of a classic, like, crypto take about what the Fed is. Maybe you can kind of like audit that take. And for just like the meme of the crypto takes perception of the Fed. Like, how do you feel about that? And how would you actually, like, rate or grade the institution of the Fed?

Kyla Scanlon
I mean, I was having a conversation with somebody earlier today, and we were talking about nuance. And like, nobody cares about nuance. Everybody wants the hottest take in the world. And I think that crypto and their views on the Fed can end up in that camp a lot of the time. I think that it's important to have, like, so, okay, the history of the Fed is, like, it came around, like, around 1913, and the reason it came around is because we had bank panics.

Like, we had banks that were issuing their own currencies, like wildcat banks, a. Lot of regional independent banks. Yeah. And there was bank runs, like, nobody's, like Silicon Valley bank, but like, way worse. And so there's no insurance.

Like, so JP Morgan of JPMorgan Chase was like, whoa. And so he got the Federal Reserve together. And like, that's kind of why we have a monetary policy unit is because, you know, markets are good, but like, they run away a lot of the times. And so I think it is good to have some guardrails on that in the form of a policy unit. I think my big issue with the Fed is the toolkit.

Like, right now they're raising rates in order to battle inflation, but we have a housing crisis, and shelter is like 70% of CPI, the consumer price index, this main measure of inflation. And if you're trying to battle a housing crisis by raising rates, making it harder to build housing, that's not really going to work. Like, it's going to only be more inflationary. And so I think that's my big issue with the Fed. And what they're doing is, like, the tools don't work.

It needs to be, like, targeted more. But they have such a broad hammer that it's tough. And I think, too, they have become responsive to the market. In some instance, the stock market will respond to the color of the tie that Jerome Powell is wearing, and that's tough, too. So I think that the crypto people have a point that maybe, what does it actually look like to have an institution with tools that can actually address the policies that we're facing, which are usually supply side solutions, not demand side solutions like raising or lowering interest rates?

But I do think it's important to have an institution in place which I know is unpopular with the crypto populace. I just think human nature makes it hard for things to be dependent on human nature. Yeah. So in broad strokes, right, the federal reserve handles monetary policy. And, like, how has monetary policy evolved?

Ryan
Because it feels like it's a lot different now than it was like maybe 20 years ago or like 40 years ago. So what's the current evolution, and why does it need to evolve? Evolve? Yeah. So, I mean, even when they were figuring out their toolkit, they discovered interest rates essentially on accident.

Kyla Scanlon
They realized that by lowering and raising interest rates, that would impact how people spent money. This was like, right when the Fed was started. And so that became kind of like part of their toolkit was the cost of money. But I think, like, now with Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve, you see a federal reserve that talks a lot. You see a federal reserve that is constantly giving meetings.

Like, I don't even know how many fed speakers were out this week, but they constantly talk because the markets move so fast past now that you have to stay in front of the information circuit. And so for them, like, they can raise and lower interest rates as much as they want, but that really hasn't worked its way through the economy. The balance sheet really hasn't worked its way through the economy. But what the Fed says really matters. And so I think that's kind of been the evolution of the toolkit, is that we have seen a fed like Alan Greenspan.

You would kind of get a sense of what his Federal reserve is going to do based on the size of his briefcase. Like, if it was a really thick briefcase, you knew that rates might be moving. But if it was a thin briefcase. You wouldn't. And so I think that's like, the big change is we see a very, very communicative fed.

Ryan
Okay, so that's the fed castle in our monetary kingdom here. Let's bring a second castle into play here. And that is the castle of fiscal policy. The neighboring castle. Yeah, the neighboring castle.

And these two are kind of like connected, but they're distinct. Right. They have their own, like, kind of like moats. They have their own castle walls. They're just like, also separate castles.

So what is fiscal policy? Like, what is in the tool belt of fiscal policy? Policy? Oh, yeah, fiscal policy is fascinating. It's much more broad than the fed.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, the fed kind of has a limited toolkit. They only really can do what they're mandated to do through Congress, which is manage inflation and manage the labor market, and then also, like, ensure that long term interest rates are around 2% normalized. And so for fiscal policy specifically, they have all sorts of tools. Like they have taxes, they have their government debt, which is issued in bonds. They have different acts that they can do.

Yeah, thank you. The government spending, taxation and borrowing. This is Kyla's illustration here. Just like a friendly looking person with a tool belt here. Their toolkit.

Ryan
Yeah, the fiscal policy tool belt. Yeah, yeah. So they can borrow money, which is like their government debt, then spending that money would be government spending taxation. So the government makes money through taxes and they make money through borrowing money, and then they end up spending that money on whatever. And so you saw fiscal policy become really, really big through the pandemic where the government was like, oh, gosh, like, we gotta get our people through this.

Kyla Scanlon
So you saw the stimulus checks, you saw student loan forgiveness until it was not forgiven anymore. And then you saw rent forbearance, other things like that, the big loans that, like, businesses were able to partake in. And then you saw now, like, the Chips act, the IRA, the IJA. And so the government is really interesting because they can do more targeted policy. Like, I interviewed the deputy secretary of the treasury, Wally Adeyemo, who is the deputy secretary of the treasury, about the housing policy of the treasury, and, like, what they're doing to build more homes.

And that's like a whole part of fiscal policy as well. But their main tools on the tool belt are what I listed out there, because government spending can be applied in so many different directions versus the Fed is rather limited. And so I think that's kind of the cool thing about fiscal, is that it's so broad. But you have to be really careful. And the thing, the reason the two castles are connected is that the Fed has been raising rates in order to battle inflation, right.

And because they're raising rates, they're making all debt everywhere more expensive to finance, like mortgage, is government debt. And so the government is now about to be spending more on interest payments than they are on defense spending. And that's like a sticky situation for the government, is like, we don't want to be spending all of our budget, all of our money on interest, and we want to be spending it on policies to help people through things or to help protect the country or to reinvest in american manufacturing. And that's the problem with fiscal policy right now, is that it's being capped by money that is expensive. Maybe to kind of illustrate the two different roles between fiscal and monetary policy.

Sean Adams
The way I would articulate this in crypto terms is like, fiscal policy is a lot more, like, opinionated and potentially can be more precise and granular and exact and directional. The government's actually kind of picking winners and losers here. Here's who we're going to tax, here's who we're going to subsidize. Whereas monetary policy, the Fed is a little bit more wholesale, a little bit more blunt, a little bit more neutral, doesn't pick winners and losers. It just like, kind of raises or lowers the temperature for the entire economy as a whole.

Do you like those, like, articulations? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think that's a good way to say it. Like, yeah, the chips act was very much focused on semiconductors and, like, building out us manufacturing in that capacity. The IRA was actually pretty broad, but like, yeah, there was like, targeted monies towards various things.

Kyla Scanlon
Same. The IJA versus. Yeah, but the fed has such a blunt tool, which is rate hikes. And it's kind of like this is going to impact everybody versus. Yeah, more targeted policy.

Ryan
Kylie, we just did an episode with Lynn Alden on something that she calls, and this is not just Lynn speaking, but we've entered an era of fiscal dominance is what she's talking about. And the basic idea here is that the fiscal side, the fiscal kingdom, has a lot more weight than it has previously, and monetary is less impactful. It's still obviously impactful, but is almost less impactful. It's become kind of like a sideshow with respect to what the economy is going to do, and fiscal is now in charge. And she points to kind of like debt to GDP ratios and other indicators that show that we're entering a new era of fiscal dominance.

What's your take on that perspective? I know it's not shared among everyone. Like, what would you say to this fiscal dominance era? Are we in a fiscal dominance era? Or, like, would you disagree?

Kyla Scanlon
Yeah, I think there's an element of truth to it. I think the tough part for me is, like, you know, we all pay taxes to a certain extent. And, like, you do want the government to spend money on things because, like, that's what a government is meant to do. It's meant to serve the people. So there is an expectation that they spend money.

But, like, I do think fiscal dominance is becoming part of an issue where they're, like, crowding out is kind of like what it might be called as well. It's like, you know, it's crowding out, perhaps private investment. It's making it so there isn't as much opportunity in certain spaces. I really think the interest cost is concerning because part of the issue with the idea of fiscal dominance, too, is like, how do you back out of that? Like, how do you sort of fix something that's so big, that's happening so quickly?

And I don't think there is a solution other than big government. And I think this is an aside, but I promise it kind of ties into it. But we're entering a new era of robber barons as well, where you see some of the tech giants taking some of the same moves that, like Andrew Carnegie or Rockefeller, Evander built Will and the government kind of like turning a blind eye. Like, you have seen a little bit of crackdown antitrust wise, but this open AI case with Scarlett Johansson and them using her voice is going to set such a precedent for how a moves. And, like, will the government turn a blind eye to that?

And will it be like another era of robber barons? Like, is the government doing what it's actually meant to be doing, which is ensuring that the populace is, like, respected from a corporation and ensuring that, like, you know, taxes are taking care of them? Is there a social safety net for them? And I think we have this element of fiscal dominance that maybe isn't ensuring some of the basic things that people would probably want to have met. Yeah, so that would be my take.

Ryan
If I were to, like, encapsulate maybe your take from that chapter I read. It's just kind of like, you don't think that fiscal spending in and of itself is bad. So it takes, like, maybe you call these misconceptions, like, the government spending is to blame for all inflation or, like, government trade deficits. Are always bad or just in general, budget deficits are bad. It seemed to me your take is more.

It depends what they spend on. If they're spending on interest payments or if they're spending on kind of, like, maybe you put entitlements in this category as just, like, an area of not, like, as much future investment. When I say that, I mean that mean, like, if you massively increase Social Security or something like that, you're spending on older generations at the cost of, like, younger generations, then maybe you're not investing in sort of the right things with your fiscal dominance. So whether it's good or bad, it really kind of depends on what the fiscal side is actually investing in. Yeah.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, is it productive? Like, is it productive? Is it something that's going to grow the economy long term? I think that's the concern. Like, you know, you think of the barbell of life, and right now we have a crisis on either end where, like, there's a lot of old people and there's somewhat a lot of young people, specifically babies.

And both child care and elder care is, like, extraordinarily expensive. Childcare has gone up 32% since 2019. It's like $10,000 a month to put somebody into elder care. And so I think both of those are going to require government intervention. And, like, both of those can be productive in their own ways, but it is the government spending money on stuff.

Like, there is going to have to be the government stepping in. And I think that's where this conversation gets kind of hairy. It's like, that isn't going to be a free market solution. Like, you know, a private equity firm can't step in and save the childcare industry because that's. I just don't think that would work.

Maybe they can, but the margins are razor thin. It's like 1% margins in childcare. And so you have to have the government, you have to have an element of fiscal dominance with both of those things, but they're refusing to step in in a really big way. So because they're focused maybe on the wrong stuff. Know, but I would say that's, like, another component of the conversation.

Ryan
Maybe we'll talk about more of the fiscal side of things when we get to a chapter about wealth inequality and, like, your take there, but let's get to another entire section of, like, the education that you're providing. So we talked about the economic kingdom and some of the main deciders, which is like, the big deciders are monetary policy. And Castle, you know, Powell and the fiscal policy, which is like Castle Congress. Castle president, us government. Let's talk about the economy itself, itself and maybe how it's measured.

So most people listening will be familiar with GDP or gross domestic income, some of these measures that they hear so often. We could talk about that. But I actually want to start back to the beginning of this conversation where we talked about vibes itself, because vibes are actually in something that you emphasize. They're also a way to measure the economy. And maybe one way of measuring this is consumer confidence.

So I'm not quite sure that in capital encapsulate vibes, but you say things in your book, and you said this before, like vibes are the economy and you've got this illustration, it's called the cake of uncertainty. And another illustration is basically how you feel and how everyone else feels. So let's get back into vibes for a minute. How come vibes are the actual economy? And like, how do you even measure vibes?

Can you measure them? Oh, yeah. I mean, I think consumer confidence surveys are a good step. And yeah, I would say that's probably like the biggest thing that we have to get a sense. I would also say polls on trust are a good indicator of overall vibes.

Kyla Scanlon
Like the Harvard youth poll came out at the end of April and there's a massive decline in trust, which means that the vibes probably aren't going to be so good. Consumer confidence was improving. It had quite a negative print for the month of April, mostly because it moved to the web, but still, like, you know, stuff wasn't looking so good. And I think that vibes are the economy. And the extent that, like, how people feel matters, how people feel ends up driving how they spend.

Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. And there's other stuff that goes into that rather than just like, people spending money, but how people spend money matters. And like, if they're spending money really matters and if they're feeling good, that really matters as well. And so vibes are the economy to that extent. But then I think it's also, it's a little woo.

But like, the self fulfilling prophecy aspect of it, too. If people are feeling really bad, they don't take risk, they don't start companies, they don't do things. Things that can be like a long term impact of vibes and how it impacts the economy. Yeah, I think this is where things can kind of get weird from people's intuitions and understandings of economies. Like the way that generally, like economies, like, it's very measured.

Sean Adams
It's a science. Like, you measure GDP and that's the economy. And why are people good? Well, GDP is up, and that's why people feel good. But I think people often, like, miss the fact that it can actually reverberate back and go backwards.

Like, it can be the tail that's wagging the dog. So maybe we can illustrate how, how negative vibes can create negative GDP. And this is kind of where, like, the world of, like, sociology and psychology, like, actually becomes related to economics and fiscal policy. So maybe you can kind of illustrate, like, some of the ways that vibes reverberate back into the economy and actually, like, change the fundamentals. Yeah, I mean, I think George Soros in reflexivity is a good example of this.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, what people think about prices ends up sort of moving prices because it ends up dictating their actions. Prices move relative to that. And so you kind of have this self fulfilling prophecy. And so it's sort of the same with the economy, too. Like, if people are like, I'm freaked out and I'm not going to buy, you know, that ends up impacting the economy at large.

What's sort of funny is you're seeing these companies sort of pull back on inventory, like target specifically, where they bought up a lot of inventory during COVID because they didn't have enough because people were buying a lot. But now they're like, oh, my God, we have so much inventory. Like, we have to do all these massive sales. And that's largely dictated by consumer behavior. And so I think that's just like, one example of vibes and like, how people feel as well as, you know, macroeconomic circumstances.

But I would say, like, reflexivity is sort of the textbook definition of what you're describing, as well as vibes is just a different word. Yeah. Something that I thought that was pretty interesting to watch was all the data about the Taylor Swift eras tour and how it actually showed up on GDP measures. And if anyone saw like one single video of, like a concert of like, all these screaming girls of all ages at Taylor Swift having some incredible vibes, and just like that show, like, transcended just like it was an international vibes all over the place, everyone having a really good time. And then it actually, like, shows up in positive GDP numbers.

Sean Adams
And I think there's like a pretty, like direct correlation there. It's like vibes were had. People want good vibes, so they pay for a Taylor Swift concert ticket. They go, they have good vibes. They buy the merch.

They go out with their friends. They have a good time, and then the GDP numbers go up. Maybe you can, like, kind of unpack that relationship a little bit. Well, just like the demand for good sentiment that people want and the actual, like, showing up in GDP numbers. It's funny that you mention her because a couple of people mentioned that Taylor Swift should be, like, a fed economic tool.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, we should release her when the economy needs stimulation because she was a little bit inflationary. I think specifically, it was like, maybe Sweden and her and Beyonce were coming at the same time, or maybe at separate times. So, like, both times, like, the swedish economy was like, oh, my God, like, this is so inflationary for hotel prices. And so. Yeah, like, that's a very good example, and I'm glad that you brought it up, of how the vibes can sort of impact, I think, for her.

Like, she's an interesting case study of culture, like religion and what people are seeking from the things that they consume. But, yeah, people spent like, $1,300 on the whole experience. People built special outfits. Like, there was a museum that put together a Taylor Swift exhibit, and they had their best day in 60 years because of that. And so if people, like, really are excited about something, something, they're going to find a way to spend money on it, and then that will show up in the economic numbers because they're spending money and they're feeling good about it and they're going to invest in this service, which is Taylor Swift and her concerts.

And so I think that was, like, such a huge economic boon. She's in Europe now, and people are flying to Europe to go see her. Another economic boom. And that's like, we saw people shift from spending on goods to spending on services. And Taylor Swift is just one example of that.

But it's kind of like the post Covid YOlo economy is what some are calling it, where people want to consume experiences. And that's very good for the economy because when you consume an experience, you consume a restaurant, you consume a hotel, you consume clothes, you consume transportation. So it's an all encompassing thing versus just buying a shirt. You introduce yourself as, like, somebody who explains markets and economies from, like, a very humanist standpoint in the introduction of this episode. And the takeaway that I kind of have from this is, like, this is a really good case study of, like, Taylor Switch, for example, or just anyone with talent who, like, has a show that people buy tickets for and, like, do consumption as a result of, like, there's some lesson there about, like, individual agency and the ability to, like, increase the GDP of their local environment.

Sean Adams
And like, Taylor Swift is kind of like the archetype of this. Like, she did it for the entire world. But like, one of the like, vibes that I get from your content is like individual ownership and responsibility about how to change one local state of being. And the lesson I think from there is one person can improve the economy. Look what Taylor Swift did.

Now, not everyone has to be Taylor Swift, but I think it does illustrate the power that one has to influence the economy in their local, regional area. Yeah, I wrote a piece on this recently. I've been really into the idea of trust lately. It's been my post book endeavor is figuring out why we hate each other, which is fun. Agency is a big part of that.

Kyla Scanlon
I think, like there's sort of a decline of agency. We've seen it since 2020. Gene Twinge, who wrote igen, documented it. People feel like they don't have the capabilities or the tools to make the decisions that they want to, so they end up stuck, which is kind of the opposite of what you would expect, especially for you all, like in a crypto, you know, Internet era. But yeah, I mean, I think the big thing that I've sort of come to, as I've been wondering, it's very easy to like, go on a podcast and be like, look at all the things that are wrong with the economy.

Who's going to fix it? And then, like. But to actually think about the solutions is more challenging. But I do think you're right that it is. It does boil down to the individual and what an individual can do, because we all cannot go and make policy.

We can all vote. Right. But, like, there's some really fuzzy parts to actually making changes in the economy. And it oftentimes boils down to reinvesting in your local community, like planning a garden or volunteering at the library, making sure the library exists. Like, things like that is kind of what we have to do.

I went to this art exhibit like a weekend ago, and I went to the 17 hundreds exhibit, and the whole time they were talking about reason versus emotion. And I think it's very similar to, like, the vibes discussion around the economy is like, there are the rational aspects of this. Like, yes, invest in your community. Yes, do this and that. But then there's the more emotional side where, you know, what do you do when things feel impossible?

And it's still important to understand those things and to give yourself the tools that you need to try and fix them on the local level. I think one thing I've at least appreciated. I think both me and Ryan have, like, a love hate relationship with crypto Twitter. But one thing I've appreciated with crypto Twitter is the vibes are, like, so salient. Like, when people feel good, vibes are everything on that.

Sean Adams
Yeah, it's like, when the prices are up, like, vibes are good, the memes are good, and just everyone's having a good time when prices go down and they continue to go down, and things get really nasty, and it's a very easy thing to feel. Once you're on crypto Twitter a lot, you have this idea in your book called markets as vibe reflectors. And, like I said, crypto has this full, like, totally naked. It's so easy to understand, like, people's sentiment in crypto because, like, it changes on a whim as a result of, like, the very volatile crypto markets. But maybe you can unpack the whole, like, markets as vibe reflectors take.

Kyla Scanlon
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think it's exactly what you're saying is that markets do end up reflecting how people feel about the circumstances. Crypto specifically, like, you know, prone to speculation in some pockets. But I think that's the big thing, is, you know, GameStop just went up again at time of recording on May 21. Well, now it's back down.

But, like, last week, it was up crazy, because roaring kitty tweeted a meme. Tweeted, like, 50 memes. And those are vibes. That's not reality. And so I think that's, like, kind of the takeaway.

I don't enjoy that take, but I think it's true. It's, like, one of those things where it's like, I wish the fundamentals mattered a bit more. But, like, you just look at the stock market, and you're like, all right, you know what's happening here, and it's better than it was. But, like, still things like GameStop, you're like, that's not. That's not real, but converged Kyle.

Ryan
And this idea that vibes are fundamentals, like, are they, like, one in the same? Because this is, like, a constant question that we have in our sort of sorting out. Some people are like, now the vibes are the fundamentals. You know, like, the memes are actually. It's all memes all the way.

Sean Adams
There's a sector of meme coins in crypto where, like, the investors investment philosophy is, you go into the telegrams and you buy the coins that have the funniest memes, and you sell. When the memes stop making you laugh. What was it? Joe Bowden. Yeah.

Joe Bowden. Yeah. But I hate that. I'm sorry.

Kyla Scanlon
I think I'm just too much of an idealistic where I'm like, no, the world's good and perfect and everybody is rational. And obviously not. I'm not rational, but I think it more so frustrates me as it does for everybody who's kind of, like, invested in crypto. And, like, I pay attention, but it's kind of like, what the heck? But it makes sense.

Like, it makes sense that memes would take over because, like, memes are a sense of reality in a world the post truth era, right? Like, nobody knows what to believe in, so why not believe in, like, a doge? And so I think you're right to the extent that vibes are fundamentals, but with companies, it's like, okay, this company makes no money and has no products. Like, should it be trading like this? Maybe.

I don't know. I don't know. If I'm saying the vibes are the economy, it probably, probably would make sense to see the vibes for the stock market, too. Launching a token worried about the ir's? Talk to Toku for five minutes to learn how to save hundreds of thousands of dollars for you, your team, and your investors.

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Make sure your vote ready by staking your CTSI before the votes open. One thing that politicians I feel like have been tapped into for a long time, this might be more tangible to a broader audience, is like gasoline prices and how people feel on the back of high gasoline prices because it matters. And also I feel like it matters maybe more than it fundamentally should because gas prices are just so visible and for some reason everyone talks about it. It's like small talk. It's like one of the categories of, like, you talk about the weather and you also somehow, for whatever reason, talk about like the price of gas.

Ryan
And I don't know, I'm not in like the gas price talking subculture, but like there's people I know just like are always talking like about the price of gas. And when gas, you know, a gasoline price of the pump went up, like above, like, I don't know, $8, something like this in place in California, like there's memes and just like all sorts of things about it. Is the price of gas another example of like the vibe economy and how this works and have politicians kind of figured this one out. So there's a newsletter called the briefing book, which is very good. And they wrote this piece called the bad news bias in gasoline price coverage.

Kyla Scanlon
And media loves gasoline prices, so I think it's not only that you're seeing, like, this neon sign on every street corner because we're such a car dominant culture in the US that, like, you're on a road that has a gas station most of the time if you're on a road. But also, like, it's. Media loves it. They love talking about gas prices. And gas prices are funny because it is something that people end up spending a lot of money on because people drive everywhere in the US.

You know, the relationship that people have to their car is very personal. And so I think that's like one part of it. But yeah, it's funny. Like, politicians are definitely tapped into it. They'll be like, gas prices are high under this guy.

You don't want him get me. I'll make it cheaper. Frack. And it's like, what? And the funny thing is that, you know, gas prices, the reason that they're high going into the summer is because we switched to a different blend.

So we switched to sweet summer crude, which is like a different blend. Sweet summer crude. There are blends. I don't know, my gas up. It sounds like my coffee.

Ryan
Yeah, it sounds lovely. I'd love seeing drinks gasoline. Yeah. But no, we switched to a different blend. And then there's also maintenance on the refineries and also people travel more.

Kyla Scanlon
And so the gas stations are like, race those prices because demand goes up. And so there are, like, actual reasons that gas gets more expensive at certain times of the year. But, like, you know, explaining, oh, we're switching to a different blend. Like, that's not as exciting as being like, no, the, you know, the politics, right. So it's totally a political talking point and it's a media talking point as well.

Ryan
But this also gets into how the deciders back to kind of like fiscal and monetary deciders actually, like, they're not dumb. They know that vibes drive the economy. Right. And they have some influence over the vibes. Right.

So you talk about price at the pump. Well, there can be fiscal policies that, you know, tap into the petroleum reserves, right? Oh, it's true. More of that sweet summer crude, you know, like. And bring price at the pump down.

There's certainly Powell, which is like, I don't know if like the central banker of the US, like Jerome Powell, he's like the chief vibe officer of the economy. It feels like sometimes. And this is why people pay attention to, like, you know, the Fed chair's briefcase and like, what they're wearing and like, the tone that they use in a given FOMC meeting, all of these things, presidents certainly set vibes as well, like, how optimistic they are, how visionary they are, versus, like, how maybe pessimistic they are. So I guess maybe the general question is, what's the role of the deciders in setting the vibe? Is it really bottom up?

Is it really decentralized where kind of, like, the people get to decide, or do the deciders themselves sort of influence the vibes? And are they aware of how much influence they might have? Yeah, no, the deciders definitely influence the vibes. People respond to what they hear. And I think there's, like, two components, right?

Kyla Scanlon
Like what Jerome Powell says, the color of his tie, whatever. What the president. President says, what the communications office of the president says, how the media translates all that. Like, if you have a negative word and a media headline, the click through rate increases by 2.3%. If you have a positive word, it decreases by 1.9%.

And so there's an incentive in the business model to spread negativity. And I think that's a big component of the vibes as well, is that people consume headlines. Like, there is a statistic that the average american spends five minutes a month on news websites. So they're just consuming headlines, like, you know, for a couple seconds every day, just consuming some headlines, which is fine, sort of. But I think that's, like, where the vibes are set is through the translation of policy.

And right now, just because of the business model of media, the translation is largely negative. And not to be, like, media bad, but I do think that that's true. Yeah. Your vibe session term that, like I said, got just merged into everyone's brains pretty well just because it filled, like, a niche of understanding in people about why they feel bad. I'm wondering what your perspective is on, like, what the actual role of the decision makers are in making vibes good.

Sean Adams
So, like, there's an affordability crisis, as you said. Like, food is more expensive, houses are more expensive. Like, these are things that are on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, yet they're not all of the economy. And so policymakers, decision makers, they have to look at all the economy. But then also, a lot of people are feeling really bad because of food and housing.

And so I'm wondering, like, what role do you think bad vibes ought to play a role in the inputs into decision makers? I mean, I think that Jerome Powell has been asked about consumer sentiment before. He's like, people are like, what's up, dude? Like, why are people feeling bad. And then he points to, like, structural affordability.

Kyla Scanlon
And so I I think, like, you can't lie to people. We do have a structural affordability crisis. And I think what people crave now more than ever and what crypto does a relatively good job with actually is, like, transparency. Like, people really want people to lay it straight. Like, I think everyone's really sick of being advertised to, being lied to.

And so I think that's the responsibility of policymakers, is to translate these really complex things as simply as possible and tell people, like, what actually is going on rather than speaking around it. And that might, like, impact the vibes short term negatively. But I think right now, in order to establish, like, long term good vibes, we have to rebuild trust in a major way, and that'll come through transparency. And so I don't think that policymakers should get up there and be like, things are great, everybody, because people aren't stupid. Like, everybody kind of has a sense of what's happening.

And I think it's a disservice to the public to not speak to that. Kyla, I want to ask you what your perspective on the housing market is right now, because it's not, you know, we can't tokenize houses yet. Actually, David tried that in a previous company. There's a little bit of that, but not very much so. We don't often talk about the housing market on bank list.

Ryan
Right. But it's a very important market and something you give a lot of focus to, I think, in your content, certainly in the book. So do we have a housing crisis right now? If yes, like, how would you describe it? Like, what does the average person, what do bankless listeners need to know about the housing market?

Like, how it works and what they, the problems are. Yes, we do have a housing crisis because people cannot find a place where they want to live cheaply. And, like, home prices have skyrocketed in 2020 to 2021, they far outpace wages. Like, home prices went up by $55,000, I think, which is, like, higher than the median wage. And so, like, it's like, whoa, what's happening?

Kyla Scanlon
And it's so many different components. Like, it's. Number one is the history of housing. Like, homes were never meant to be the speculative investment. The return on housing from, like, 1870 to 1970 or so was zero, 0.06%.

But now we expect this, like, massive return on our home. And part of the problem is that if you look at the chart of the distribution of financial assets from the Federal Reserve, the bottom 50%, all of their wealth is tied into their house. And so the american dream is this idea that you'll get a house and that house will be your nest egg, and that's what you're going to, like, make all your money on. You're going to sell it when you're old and then you know you're going to die or whatever. But, like, that's not working out how people thought it would.

Because, number one, people can't get into homes. But, and so going back to that chart, though, if you look at the top 10%, all of their wealth is in equity ownership and stocks. And so, like, number one, there's a lesson there that maybe homes shouldn't be a speculative investment. If people want to make a lot of money, it should be exposure to markets as well as things like esoPs, employee stock option programs, or owning a small business. And then in terms of the housing market at large, we are now, Derek Thompson wrote a really good piece on this.

We're facing this question of, like, is a home an investment, or is it a place to live? Like, is it a speculative tool or is it something that you, like, raise a family in? And for a lot of people, it's both. And that's a really sticky situation when there aren't enough homes. And that's the problem that we're having, is we just don't have enough homes in the places that people want to live.

And part of the reason is zoning laws. Like, we have crazy zoning laws. 70% of LA is zoned for single family homes, meaning that you can't build multifamily, you can't build duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, you can only build single family homes, which is great, but, like, you have to have a little bit of a mix of it, and then it's nimbyism. So not in my backyard. So going back to the point of homes being a speculative investment, there's a lot of people who are like, I've lived here for 30 years.

I want to sell this home for a million dollars more than I bought it, and I don't want anything else built around me because it could destroy the value of my home, even though there's plenty of studies showing that that's not the case. So that's one component of it. And then the other thing is just the cost of building homes has been really expensive, especially into the pandemic. Like, lumber had a whole crisis. There was a lot of labor market costs around constructions.

And so housing has just been this perfect storm. Even post 2008, like, builders were like, we're never going to build another home again after what just happened here. Like, this is nuts. And it's really quite hard because you have this, like, psychological impact where people are like, I have to have a home to build wealth. I don't know how else to do it.

And then also it's like, well, I have to have a place to live and I'm going to be renting for the rest of my life. And legislation really favors homeowners. Like, you had a tax break on a mortgage, you don't as a renter. And that's, like, one component of it, too. All the tax incentives are also in place for older people to stay in their homes for a very long time and not sell.

Like, boomers own most of the four bedroom homes at this point. That should be passed on largely to the millennials who have kids. And so all this stuff, like the US housing market is. There's so much going on. Well, I'm just curious, like, so for people who are listening, right.

Ryan
Obviously, home ownership is skewed. So baby boomers are kind of, like, looking around. Some of them are like, what problem? I don't see a problem. Even elder millennials, many of them have houses, many of them have property.

But this is particularly hitting Gen Z. And some of the younger millennials, do you have any advice for them in general? They're faced with this problem. They can't afford to buy a home. They don't even know whether they should.

And it feels very much like a speculation casino. Is it going to resolve at some point? Like, the advice, just like, hold on and wait? Or, like, what's the practical advice for someone who's just, like, stuck in this dilemma of, like, renting forever, not being able to afford a home? Like, really wants one, really wants some participation here?

What would you say to someone listening like that? Yeah, I mean, I think I would like to own a home one day, too. And it's like, I don't know if that's going to happen. And so I think, like, what's kind of interesting about the housing situation, and Connor send from Bloomberg opinion has pointed this out, is that, like, when you don't own a home and you push off having kids, you have a little bit of extra spending money. And so you do see people, you know, spending on various activities, whether it be like sports, gambling or investing or crypto.

Kyla Scanlon
And so, like, that's, like, one way to do it is to find another outlet for the money to invest it rather than purchasing a home. You know, the down payment, the mortgage, the property taxes. So I'd say not all hope is lost, but I would say it's more frustrating than anything. And I recognize the frustration. But there are alternatives to home ownership that include building a pretty good investment portfolio if they choose to do so.

Ryan
Another market we don't talk about very much on bank lists or relatively uninformed on is the labor market. And there's a whole section in your book about the labor market. It's incredibly important, but high level. What is the labor market? Where does it fit in?

Who's responsible for the labor market? What do we mean by that? The labor market is everything. It's like everywhere. And the way that it fits in is that it's like where employers and employees interact.

Kyla Scanlon
And so if you're looking for a job, you, you know, you're part of the labor market. I'm technically part of the labor market as a contractor. And so, like, that's just one example. Right? And there's all sorts of services that encompass the labor market.

But the labor market is important because it gives us a good sense of how the economy is moving. So there's different services that give us this idea, like the jolts. The jobs opening and labor turnover survey, which is what the Fed and other entities use to gauge the strength of labor market, is the job openings numbers that these companies are posting. However, this metric has been a little bit fuzzy because sometimes people will post a job opening and that opening won't be real, it'll just be positive press like, oh, look, we're hiring even though they're not planning to hire anybody. And so that can get a little bit weird.

Another metric that's good in terms of the strength of the labor market is the quits rate. So the quits rate is actually a sign of strength. If people feel like they can quit their job, that is actually a very strong labor market. It's a very tight labor market. And so that for the Fed, the way that they would want the labor market to be in an economy that they're trying to slow down would be a looser labor market, like a higher unemployment metric versus an economy that they want to speed up.

They would want to see a tighter labor market over time. But yeah, it's really just like how people interact to get a job. It's income, it's taxes, it's how most people get health care in the US specifically. And so yeah, it's an incredibly important market to pay attention to. But because of the metrics, it can be a little bit fuzzy to figure out what's happening, because jolts isn't very good.

Quits can be weird. And, yeah, it's a very interesting market, but there's a lot of nuance to the numbers. I would imagine the labor market is very tightly coupled to vibes. I think you define the labor market as for everyone who wants a job, they can get a job. But I think maybe what's missing from that definition is the type of job that people want.

Sean Adams
And so, like, you know, I have worked jobs in my past that I do not want to return to. Maybe it's a rite of passage of people's, like, first job or first job out of college or something like that. Like, what, David? What were your worst jobs? Well, okay, I was proud of the fact that I worked at this mental health agency with kids between the 13 and 18 for two years, but I would never, ever want to return there.

My gosh. So it's social work, and, you know, glad I did it, but just like, the. My vibes were going to be bad if I stayed there for too long. And so, like, there's a relationship between, like, can you get a job is the first thing, but then can you get the job that you want? And do you feel fulfilled in that?

And all of these things, all of these, like, variables, I think, relate to vibes probably very strongly. And so, like, how does the vibes element play into the idea of, like, a labor force and a strong labor market? Yeah, I mean, I think that's, like, the thing that we're kind of seeing now is that there's rolling around recessions in tech and finance. And so, like, for tech and finance people, specifically on Twitter, if you say the labor market is good, people will be like, no, it's not. Because for them, it's not.

Kyla Scanlon
But for healthcare and hospitality, it's great. It's a really good labor market. And so, like, that's kind of the problem with sort of painting a broad brushstroke over things, is that, like, some components of it are doing very well. Tech and finance over hired. During the pandemic, like, a lot of tech companies had jobs that unfortunately maybe didn't make sense for the long term, but they hired for, and that's tough to back out of.

And so that's kind of like, what we're seeing in some aspects of the labor market now is a normalization, but that doesn't feel very good at all. And so that's why the vibes can be off. It's like, people are like, I got this cool job, and now it's gone. And this really sucks. And it does because we don't have a great social safety net.

So if you lose your job, it's like, it's really quite scary. Speaking from experience, you know, it's scary. Yeah. So I would say that's, like, part of the vibe, part of the labor market. What about some of the intergenerational tensions here?

Ryan
How would you describe the generations are interacting with one another? Is it sort of worse for one generation or one segment of the age demographic versus another? Or is it just like, who's feeling the bad vibes right now and who's feeling the good vibes based on age? I think all of the demographics have similar issues. There's been a lot of good pieces talking about ageism, like, certain people pass a certain age, struggling to get hired or being like, given the, what's it called?

Kyla Scanlon
The golden let go or something like the soft goodbye. And so I think that's the hard part for older groups. And then I wrote this piece for fast company around this time last year, around how Gen Z was thinking about the labor market, because it is like a completely different environment. You can't really rely on your employer, how you used to be able to. It used to be that you would work somewhere for 40 years, and that would be your job.

But now, you know, there's no pension. There's not really that same job security. And so I think younger people are thinking about the labor market much more differently than how older people would. And a lot of corporations are like, well, why wouldn't you sell your soul to me? Like, I give you money, and people are like, oh, my God.

I also think there's the rise of entrepreneurship. Like, you all are a really good example of that. Like, striking out on your own crypto, enabling a lot of that. Me too. Doing something sort of similar.

People now have the Internet, which enables anybody to sort of do their own thing. And I think a lot of young people have taken advantage of that. The gig economy has sort of died. It's still around. But I think people are very much like, wow, this is a crazy way to treat other humans.

So I think there's a lot of lessons in the labor market. Yeah. Growing up, my financial and markets literacy was basically at zero, and I was very much in kind of an anti capitalist camp, which I fell victim to the thinking of just wealth inequality as the bane of the existence, down with the bourgeoisie, this kind of thing. But also at the same time, the wealth inequality is a huge drag on vibes. It doesn't really matter that we're living in some of the best times in human history ever, where, like, people in poverty in America still can watch some of the best entertainment on Netflix that we've ever had, but that doesn't really matter, right?

Sean Adams
When, like, you can kind of look over the fence at your, like, neighbor with a Ferrari or, like, you know, billionaires tweeting on Twitter about layer shenanigans because, like, the gap between the rich and the poor will always still make people feel bad. How would you say the variable of wealth inequality is impacting the whole structure of the economic kingdom that you've illustrated? Oh, it's huge. Have you heard of the Las Vegas tunnels? No, I haven't.

Kyla Scanlon
Okay, so there's a group of homeless people that'll live underneath Caesar's palace. There's a very good documentary on it. But, like, it's kind of interesting because you have these people, like, living in a tunnel because the water is cleaner. You know, you can plug into Caesar's pretty easy. And above them is like, billionaires just walking around and gambling and, like, all this opulence.

Sean Adams
Wow. And I think that's like, it's not even a metaphor. It's like the economy, right? It's like these, you know, you have people living in tunnels, and above them is, you know, billionaires footprint. And I would say, like, wealth inequality is a huge part of it.

Kyla Scanlon
There is a statistic that talks about, like, the top 400 people in the US. They used to be 2% of us GDP, and now they're like, 17%. So we have seen a lot of wealth concentration at the top. And, like, there's all sorts of tax policies in place, too. Like, the inheritance tax that we have basically does not exist.

So if you inherit money from your rich boomer parent, like, you're solid. John Byrne Murdoch wrote about it in the Financial Times. Like, this really crazy bifurcation. This is not even on the level of wealth and equality. It's just like, between generations, there's going to be a cohort of millennials who are inheriting a home from their boomers, from their boomer parents, and then a cohort of millennials who aren't.

And so that's going to sort of create even more stratification between these two groups and create even more wealth inequality. And, like, there's really, like, what are you going to say about that, beyond just like, tax people more? But I think that wealth inequality is a massive problem. And it's so sad. I love the United States and I love living here, but it's such a bummer because we have so much wealth but not a lot of prosperity.

Upward mobility. Stephanie Stanchieva, a researcher at Harvard, has documented upward mobility has declined. It's harder to get to where you would want to go just because of the concentration, concentration of wealth amongst the top. And there's all sorts of political incentives to take away benefits for the bottom, even though it's kind of like, we probably should help these people. They need help.

It's tough. Yeah. Is this kind of like a drag, would you say, on the economy in general, or is just this sort of like a distribution type of problem set or. It's like, I guess some folks that we've talked to feel very strongly like, well, inequality turns into social political problems. This is kind of like a ray Dalio type of concept.

Ryan
It's just basically it just spills over into turmoil, revolution, this type of thing, which creates kind of a negative sum type of game, and this is how it affects society overall. But what do you see as the effect of wealth inequality to the economic kingdom? Oh, yeah. I mean, I think it is a huge drag, both economically and social. Culturally.

Kyla Scanlon
There's an Einstein quote that talks about I can't do it justice because I can't remember the whole thing, but essentially it's this idea of how many kids are stuck in cornfields not having access to the education that he had. How many geniuses do we have stuck in the middle of nowhere because they couldn't get out? And I think that's really true. And the Internet helps with all that. But wealth inequality traps so much intelligence and it traps so much brilliance because people are just stuck.

And I think that's so sad. And it's obviously a drag on the economy because if we had a better ladder out of poverty for people, who knows what we could accomplish, right? And I think it's always been hard to get out of poverty, obviously, but I think now it's difficult. It's just like things are so expensive, student loans are very high unless you get a certain amount of scholarships. And I think that people maybe are not willing to take on as much risk as they used to be able to.

There's sort of like the decline of the internal locus of control and a focus on the external locus of control, like pushing blame to everything outside rather than knowing on the inside that you can take certain actions. And I think that's kind of the tough part, is. Yeah, like, we have so many people that need help and how do you help them? One, maybe last area I would love your insight on is, is energy and commodities in general. I know you've talked a lot about energy, and I'm wondering your take on how energy sort of factors into the economic mix and understanding it.

Ryan
I think that we want to do more episodes on just like the energy lens on things in general, even on just. That'd be good for you. Yeah, I think it would. On, like, monetary economics and that sort of thing. Some folks have talked about energy basically with respect to even central bankers and fiscal policy.

There's kind of like an energy energy blindness, almost the idea that nature is kind of like the ultimate central banker. Right? Like the price of oil, barrels of oil actually matters a lot. And sometimes we are so abstracted from that and disconnected from that, we don't realize how much it matters and how much energy price impacts in a positive way the good times that we all enjoy. But what's your lens on things?

Like, if you were to provide some education for people listening on energy, what do they need to know? Yeah, I mean, I think that what's happening with energy right now is kind of sad. We've made a lot of progress towards clean energy. Like, we're moving towards solar, we're moving towards other alternatives. But you've seen more of a move toward fossil fuels, again, towards coal, just because people are like, it's kind of expensive to be green, and we like short term profits.

Kyla Scanlon
I would say that's like a big thing that's happening, but there is so much progress in the clean energy space, and I think there's a lot of exciting things happening. But I think you're totally right that, like, commodities are the undercurrent of the economy. Sam Altman, who's the CEO of OpenAI, was giving an interview about energy usage of AI because AI uses a ton of energy because of how big the data centers are. And he was like, yeah, we're probably going to need nuclear power soon. Like, we're going to need to figure this out.

But, like, that is not feasible. It is feasible, but, like, it's a long path toward it, right? And it's something we should have done a long time ago. But I think that's kind of the thing is, like we're, you know, we're talking into our computer screens, we're looking at the AI voice bots that sound exactly like Scarlett Johansson and turns out is Scarlett Johansson's voice. And we're saying like, okay, this is cool, this is awesome.

And I don't think we give thought to the fact that, like, one conversation with chat GBT is equivalent to pouring out an entire water bottle. Like it uses an entire water bottles worth of energy. And so I think that's just going to be the capacity constraint. You see, with Nvidia too, is making these GPU's like there's real world capacity constraints to everything that we interact with. And that's something I wrote.

This piece called AI can't plant corn yet because we often give a lot of virtue to the very cool technology that's coming out of AI. But we oftentimes forget that, hello, we need corn and we need like, stuff on the ground. The Wall Street Journal published this piece called Gen Z is the tool belt generation talking about how Gen Z is returning to trades. And I think this is sort of a tangent. I do this all the time.

Like, I'm like. It's sort of related to what we're talking about, but it's like a tangent to the energy conversation. But I do think like Gen Z being the tool belt generation, a focus on energy, a focus on clean energy specifically, is going to be so important for the next decade. And it'll be the key to economic growth because we can't grow the way that we are right now. I mean, we can, but we won't be here in 15 years.

Ryan
Kyla, this has been so good. And I think we've only got a taste of the excellent resource. This book that you've written, maybe to kind of close things out. Let's start talking about application. It's sort of like, let's say those listening and people in general become more financially, economically literate.

Now it's a question of like, what do we do with this knowledge and how do we prepare? So you've got a chapter that talks about some of the metrics to pay attention to. And I think maybe this is one lens of your book, is once you understand just the basics of how these dials work and how the economic kingdom, the various castles, interact with one another, then you can interpret things that are happening in the news or in your life and take some action, make a better decision on the back of that. And all of these like, better decisions, financial and life decisions that you make over time, those will compound into like a better life for you, right? Whether it's like your career, you know, what you do there, or how you budget or what you invest in, or some of the major purchases you make.

So maybe let's talk about some of the metrics to watch and like what people can do with them once they have this base level of financial literacy. Yeah. So something like. Like interest rates. Okay.

What do you do when they're high? What do you do when they're low? Like, you know, how do you pay attention to interest rates? Yeah. Yeah.

Kyla Scanlon
I mean, I think interest rates are a really good metric to pay attention to because they ultimately determine borrowing costs from those things. And so if they're low, it's probably a good time to, if you're looking to buy a house, to pay attention to a mortgage and home prices and see if that's the place that you want to go into, high interest rates are maybe a good time to pay attention into bonds, various stocks as well. That would do well in a high rate environment. So, like, there's all sorts of investment opportunities that come along with interest rates as well as life decisions like purchasing a home or taking out a big loan for maybe starting a new business. I would say that's like the application that can be taken away from paying attention to interest rates.

Ryan
How about inflation rates? That's another number that's kind of top of mind. And CPI has been burning hot lately. Maybe it's down a little bit, but what do you do when it's high? What do you do when it's low?

Is there anything you can do? Yeah, CPI is frustrating. Inflation is frustrating. I mean, here it's like one thing I talk about in the book is sort of your personal inflation rate. So having a sense of what you're spending money on, maybe it's something that you're spending money on, like beef went up crazy amounts.

Kyla Scanlon
Eggs went up crazy amounts. Like maybe you don't eat beef and eggs. You eat turkey or chicken for a couple weeks just because those are rather expensive. So it's kind of like paying attention to those things that's a little bit in the weeds, but a lot of there's even investment tools that can help hedge against influence inflation, like tips, treasury inflation protected securities, which is the government, you can purchase some of those. They're protected against inflation.

So it's a rather smart move and a high inflation environment to have exposure to things that are relatively insulated from inflation. And when inflation is raging, that's a good thing to do. When inflation is low, it's like, it's fun, you know, it's a good time to have exposure to fund companies. How about employment data? Is there anything we can do with unemployment numbers that we hear at report out?

The labor market is funny because there was a survey that came out that said that six in ten americans think that unemployment is a massive problem, even though unemployment is basically at an all time low. And so I think it's just really understanding, like, what's actually happening with the labor market, but then also having knowledge that there are rolling recessions. So if you're like, maybe going to enter a certain industry, like, okay, maybe it doesn't make sense to go into computer programming right now with AI, it's still like, we're going to need programmers. But there's been a lot of pullbacks in hiring in that industry. So just paying attention to, like, who's hiring what and where and why, and maybe building out skill sets relative to that.

Ryan
So overall, Kyla, what do you hope people get out of this book? What do you hope they take away? And how do you hope it benefits their lives? Yeah, I mean, the reason that I wrote this book is because I felt like it was important for people to have a toolbox to understand the economy. Like, there's so many good economics books out there, like based basic economics economics.

Kyla Scanlon
In one lesson, Jeremy Rudd just published a really good book on economics. Like, there's so, so many. And so what I tried to do is just consolidate that information and make it really fun and accessible. So it's more consolidation rather than a creation. And I hope that people feel like they are able to have the information they need to make decisions about their lives.

I think it's really tough to exist in a system that you don't understand. And I think that's how a lot of people feel about the economy is like, what are interest rates? What is the fed? And I'm hoping that this can help just one person make a better decision about their life. So what's next for you, Kyla?

Ryan
I'm like, actually incredibly impressed that you had the discipline to put together an entire book. Like, this is a thick book as well. It's like a lot of pages. And I know from my experience that David myself is just, I think we probably, David, we've not had an explicit conversation this for a while, but probably we've thought about doing a book. But it's always like, rather than spend the time and discipline ourselves to come up with a book, we just record another podcast.

Sean Adams
Podcast instead about. People who write podcasts are long. It's way easier, it's faster. And sometimes if we're feeling really disciplined, we will write an article. David does more of that than I.

Ryan
But you've put together an entire book and you're also still producing a massive amount of podcast content, video content, TikTok, shorts of these things, short skits. We haven't even done that at bankless. Yeah. So I guess my question is, like, what are your plans next? First, congrats on the book.

What are the plans next? Is this a book tour? Are you doing a media tour? Are you gonna. Will you never write a book again?

Will you write, like, will you become a notable author with, like, dozens of books in the future? What are your plans? I don't know. I'm actually having, like, an identity crisis. This happens, I think, after you write a book, because, like, the book is all of you for a whole.

Kyla Scanlon
Like, for me, it was about a year, and so all I would talk about is my book and all this stuff, or the book, not my book. Yeah. And so for me, I'm really interested in just how can we help people understand the economy and not be so concerned, like, nervous about it? How do we help people get the information that they need? And so I explored that in a book format.

I'm kind of interested in a tv show format next. If that ends up working out, I would love to write another book. I write my newsletter about every two months right now, but it'll tick back up soon, and then I have all sorts of short skits as well on the various platforms. But I really think it's kind of like connecting people to the foundations of understanding the world around them. Like, one thing I also tried to do in the book is connected back to philosophy.

So there's a lot of poems, there's a lot of quotes from various writers, because I think that, like, this is me getting on my high horse, but I think that the economy is holistic, and we have to understand it through a human lens, and that requires multidisciplinary efforts. And so that's kind of also what I'm interested in is how do we tie together? I love tying stuff together. I'm sure the economic kingdom made that clear. But how do you tie together all of these things?

And Econ has been so underserved in terms of art. So how do you make more art about the economy? Very cool. I love that perspective. And like Ryan said at the beginning, just a master explainer of very hard things that few people have attempted to explain before.

Sean Adams
And now, Kylo, your brand to me has always been radically independent. I know you have a publisher of a book because you kind of need that to write a book, but overall, I think you're pretty much a pretty independent content producer. Talk about that choice or just that resonance with remaining independent and what that means for the future of your story arc. Yeah, I mean, I contract, so, like, you all were literally the first people ever to take a chance on me, which, thank you huge. Huge.

Kyla Scanlon
I said thank you very first thing in the podcast. But, yeah, it's like, contract with various people, make videos for them. It's scary as I know you all kind of know. It's like, you know, it's, you don't have healthcare, like, stuff like that, and so you're kind of jumping around trying to figure out what's next. But, like, yeah, I have so many ideas that it would be hard for me to work for somebody because it wouldn't be fair for them, because I'd be off, like, working on something else when they would be like, can you please get back in excel?

That was my issue with the first job I had. And so, yeah, I would really love to stay independent. Yeah, I think it's really fun. Do you have any advice for young aspiring entrepreneurs, content creators, educators, just, you know, startup founders about your experiences that you've had? Yeah, I mean, I was so scared when I first started out.

Like, I was terrified. And then, like, I think the biggest thing is, like, asking for help and letting people take chances on you and sort of being brave. Like, I had no net. Like, if things didn't work out, like, bye. And so I think the biggest thing is just believing in yourself, as cliche as that sounds, but also knowing when to stop.

Like, I've started and stopped so many projects because I was like, this is not the right thing to be focusing on. Like, my energy is better served elsewhere. And so it is like, taking multiple risks within, like, that's why I'm on literally every single platform is because you have to be everywhere all of the time in the world work that I do. And I think it's like, that's a similar lesson for an aspiring entrepreneur, is be everywhere that you need to be within the industry that you're in. Well, Kyle, it's been fantastic having you on bankless.

Sean Adams
The fact that bankless had any small role at all at the very beginning of your arc is, I think, pretty cool, and I'm very humbled by that. And it's been cool watching you leapfrog us into the world of, like, mainstream media and reaching far more people than I think we have. So congrats on your art. Thank you. Yeah, thank you guys so much.

Ryan
By the way, Kyla, I really. David, I like that mental model for us. Maybe we should just produce art about crypto. Maybe that should be our model. Definitely underserved.

Kyla. Yeah. Thanks again for joining us. And bankless nation, we will include in the show notes a way for you to either pre order, depending on when this is released, or order Kyla's book. It's gonna be released May 28.

It's called in this economy, how money and markets really work. We talked about some of it here today, but it's only just scratched the surface, and we have to end with this. Of course, our usual risks and disclaimers. Crypto is risky. You could lose what you put in.

But we're headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone. But we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey. Thanks a lot.

In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work | Kyla Scanlon

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1: Introduction to Economic Concepts

2: The Role of Monetary Policy

3: Market Dynamics Explained

4: Psychological Aspects of Economics

5: Practical Applications

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