ETH ETF: Bullish or Bearish? | Alex Thorn & Matt Hougan

This episode delves into the expectations and market dynamics surrounding the incoming ETH ETF, featuring insights from Matt Hogan of Bitwise and Alex Thorne of Galaxy Digital.

1. Significant demand is expected for the ETH ETF, potentially reaching $15 billion in net inflows over 18 months.
2. The ETH ETF may face initial volatility due to outflows from the ETH e Trust, similar to the bitcoin ETF experience.
3. Retail demand and tax-advantaged accounts are likely to be major drivers of ETF inflows.
4. Ethereum's unique characteristics, such as staking and utility in DeFi, could affect its price sensitivity compared to bitcoin.
5. Traditional finance investors may adopt a diversified approach, increasing exposure to both bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs.

1: Introduction

Overview of the episode's topic and introduction of guests Matt Hogan and Alex Thorne.

• David Hoffman: "Welcome to Bankless, where we explore the expectations around the incoming ETH ETF with two guests each from an ETF issuer."

2: Market Analysis

Discussion on market predictions and demand for the ETH ETF.

• Matt Hogan: "I expect that we'll see an acceleration as those account platforms come on and as the inevitable tailwinds behind crypto push us to new all-time high prices."

3: ETH e Trust Impact

Exploring the potential impact of the ETH e Trust on the ETH ETF.

• Ryan Sean Adams: "We actually make the bear case as well and get both Alex and Matt to respond to that."

4: Retail and Institutional Demand

Insights into retail and institutional demand for the ETH ETF.

• Alex Thorne: "I think it's pretty unlikely that they're going to choose to just own the bitcoin ETF."

5: Predictions and Methodologies

Detailed explanation of the methodologies used to predict ETF inflows.

• Matt Hogan: "There are starting points to look at. So I really focused on two sets of starting points."

6: Broader Market Implications

Discussion on the broader market implications and potential price impact.

• David Hoffman: "What did we learn from the bitcoin ETF that informs the ETH ETF?"

7: Conclusion

Final thoughts and summary of key points discussed in the episode.

• David Hoffman: "This is a non-recurring event. There's going to be outflows, and I think you've classified them right."

1. Diversify Crypto Investments: Consider adding both bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to your portfolio for broader exposure to the crypto market.
2. Monitor Regulatory Changes: Stay informed about regulatory developments that could impact crypto ETFs and adjust your investment strategy accordingly.
3. Utilize Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Use tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs to invest in crypto ETFs to maximize potential gains.
4. Keep Long-Term Perspective: Focus on the long-term growth potential of Ethereum and the broader crypto market rather than short-term price fluctuations.
5. Stay Informed: Regularly listen to expert analyses and market predictions to make informed investment decisions.

Is the Ethereum ETF Bullish for ETH?

Matt Hougan and Alex Thorn put together their own analysis of inflows for the ETH ETF. Remarkably, their numbers came in somewhere close to the same place.

We discussed how much demand there will be for the ETH ETF, whether or not it will overperform or underperform expectations and the overall state of the Crypto Market today.

People

Matt Hogan, Alex Thorne

Companies

Bitwise, Galaxy Digital, Grayscale, Vanek

Books

None

Guest Name(s):

Matt Hogan, Alex Thorne

Content Warnings:

None

Matt Hogan
I don't know what the flows will be in the second half of the year, but I expect that we'll see an acceleration as those account platforms come on and as the inevitable tailwinds behind crypto right now, which are massive, push us to new all time high prices. I will also add, I expect 2025 flows to exceed 2024 flows.

David Hoffman
Welcome to bankless, where we explore the expectations around on the incoming ETH ETF with two guests each from an ETF issuer, Matt Hogan from Bitwise and Alex Thorne from Galaxy. Both Matt and Alex have been doing some market research to put together an analysis of inflows for the Ethereum ETF. Remarkably, their numbers come pretty close to each other. These aren't random guesses, these are educated guesses. And each one comes to the show today to give their numbers and show their work.

Some of the things that we discussed with the guests today. How much demand will there be for the Eth ETF? Will the EtH ETF over perform or underperform expectations? What about the ETH e trust from Grayscale? Is that going to come and kill the party like it did with the bitcoin ETF?

Some other topics as well. The Solana ETf from Vanek, was that real or just a Hail Mary? What's going on with that? And overall, what about the market as a whole? Are we bearish, bullish, or confused about the state of the crypto market more broadly?

Ryan Sean Adams
This is the episode I think we need. I guess if you're not into bullish episodes on bankless, maybe skip this one. Okay. Yeah, because this was definitely a bullish episode. This one's nice.

David Hoffman
This was a good one. It was a good response to a lot of the narrative that's going on, prices going down, people are getting bearish. There's a lot of bearishness in terms of sentiment being expressed in particular on the Ethereum ETF. Like, it won't amount to. Yeah, but we dive headlong into that.

Ryan Sean Adams
So we actually make the bear case as well and get both Alex and Matt to respond to that. So there's a bit of back and forth, and I think listeners should strap themselves in and make their own conclusions at the end of this episode. Let's get to the episode with Matt and Alex. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible, including our recommended exchange to get your ether pre ETF. Actual real ether.

Alex Thorne
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David Hoffman
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Token launches don't have to be complicated. Talk to Toku today to get a free initial token valuation. Bankless nation. Super excited to introduce you to Matt Hogan and Alex Thorne. Matt is the CIO over at Bitwise, one of the ETH ETF issuers.

Alex Thorne is head of research at Galaxy Digital, another issuer of the ETH ETF. Matt and Alex, welcome to Bankless. Thanks for having us. Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm excited to be here.

So we've had both of you guys on before, both Matt and Alex, before the bitcoin ETF's were approved and started trading, to ask the same question that we are asking today. How big will the demand be for the Eth ETF's? And as we watch the bitcoin ETF's become approved and start trading, I would say, like, both of you guys, like, pretty much nailed your predictions. Both you guys were, like, pretty close to each other's predictions, and they were like, you know, more or less, like, dead on. So we're bringing you guys back to ask the question, but for the ETH ETF's, how much demand will there be for the ETH ETF's?

That's going to be the bulk of the content, the conversation here today. But first, before we get into the actual ETF metrics that we can talk about. Just want to talk about the approvals. We're going to release this podcast episode on Monday, the Monday, which I believe is the first with the Bloomberg boys, with their tentative over under date, their 50 50 date being tomorrow, July 2. I'm wondering if you guys have any, like, alpha or information that you might be able to share about speculation on when the ETH ETF might actually go live and start trading.

Alex, you have any Alpha you can share us? Yeah, I mean, I was very surprised, I think, like many people, with the abruptness of the process. But now, you know, you've seen multiple issuers file amendments. There are still amendments to be filed. You know this because we don't have fees for many of these, you know, prospective filings.

Alex Thorne
I think only one maybe has it so far, so there's gotta be more. But those could be the final ones. If you start looking at the delta between the various versions amendments, it's pretty minimal. We don't see a lot of changes being made in the latest round of amendments that came out. This is the exact tea leave reading that we were doing back in November, December of 23.

It seems like issuers have really copied the bitcoin s one s on a variety of the issues that had been tricky. Create redeem process. The stuff that the mechanics of it that really had to get figured out from. So this is all to say, David, that I think we're close. I had in May when the sort of pivot, the abrupt 19 B four process really sort of kicked off on a Monday and was approved on a Thursday.

I thought maybe like earliest you could see would be August just because of how many rounds there had been for the bitcoin ones. But they seem to have picked up from a, you know, much further starting point. And so I. I'm going to go ahead and just straight up guess next week. So the week of July 7 or 10th, whichever that week is sometime then they actually trade.

Keep in mind we have a holiday this week, right, with July 4. So you lose a day. Even if they maybe get, you know, if the SEC were to say these are all done, we don't need to do anymore, I would bet they don't trade this week. So could be next week. Could take longer though.

Of course. Matt, vibe check. How's that vibe with you? Yeah, I think that sounds right. My birthday is July 8.

Matt Hogan
That'd be a nice birthday present then. So I think, you know, they could be any day. I think that's right. Issuers are waiting to hear from the SEC and many expect it to be the last round and then they would file and launch a day or two after that. But as Alex mentioned, we have a funky week with the half day on the third and then the day off on the fourth.

So this would be a chaotic week for those to launch. But this is crypto in the SEC, so you never know. We might get that. But I think I'll put the over under on my birthday. I'll join out.

David Hoffman
Matt, does bitwise have a July 4? I'm taking the day off. Big finance commercial coming out. I can't disclose that. I can't disclose that.

Matt Hogan
Hopefully you all have been enjoying the commercials. They were fun to make. Team did a great job. Yeah, those. I have to say too, Matt, those Ethereum commercials were excellent.

Alex Thorne
Very funny. Thank you. Thank you. You guys also had the most interesting man in the world too, didn't you? Yeah, we did.

Matt Hogan
The most interesting man for bitcoin. We had to figure out something to do in the ETH space, and we've gotten great feedback. They've been fun. And there are more to come. There more to come.

There's new characters coming as well. Yeah, I don't know if people have actually. I'm sure this must have been part of the inspiration. And maybe it's a, you know, maybe where I'm dating myself a little bit, but they were very reminiscent of those old Mac windows ads. Oh, yeah.

Alex Thorne
With the sort of really buttoned up windows guy. And then I forgot the comedian that was. I'm a Mac.

Ryan Sean Adams
In that case, I actually read, like, way back then. Some people had sympathy for the PC. They thought he was, like, fun and like you, and it's like it was backfiring a little bit for Mac. But I don't see that with the trad five guy. He kind of just, like, in the bitwise commercials, he just kind of annoys me.

So, yeah, I think you guys have made maybe done a better job than Steve Jobs. I love it. I don't hear that very often, but I'll take that one. All right, so vibes are good. Sounds like we're getting it sooner rather than later.

David Hoffman
Maybe not this week, but optimistically sounds like it next week, which I'm just fine with. Again, want to get into the actual metrics of the measuring of the flows, but I actually want to talk about your guys methodology first for doing so. Just the data gathering process for how you guys have made this guess. And I want to put emphasis on this. This is an educated guests.

You guys are not just like licking your finger, sticking up to the winds and like picking a number. You guys are gathering data. You're doing some market analysis, I'm guessing. And I kind of want to just like, get some insight into that process so we know what this, like, educated guess actually looks like. So maybe, Matt, we can start with you.

Just what does the data gathering process look like? What are the data inputs into this? Educated guess. Yeah, I love that you frame it that way. Because the reason I wrote my piece was I was frustrated, not by what Galaxy and Alex had done, which I thought was great, but a lot of the takes I saw on social media, which were just people sticking their finger in the air and saying, it's going to be zero, it's going to be $100 billion.

Matt Hogan
It's ridiculous. There are starting points to look at. So I really focused on two sets of starting points. One is just the relative market cap of bitcoin and ETH. I think it's incredible that people didn't look at that.

And the reason I looked at it is I was speaking with an advisory firm that has over $100 billion of assets. And the first thing they mentioned to me was that they were uncomfortable with just bitcoin, and they really wanted to diversify. They would be more comfortable with their advisors allocating if they could build a diversified basket. It just hit me like a ton of bricks that the starting point for many investors is going to be the market cap weight, which is about a three to one ratio right now. Now, some people want bitcoin only, some people want eth only.

They're good arguments on both sides, but the naive starting point is the market cap. So that was the first point. And then I thought to myself, well, there are ETP markets internationally in Europe and Canada, among others, and they're not identical to the us market. Those ETP markets operate a little bit differently, but they're not completely irrelevant. So let's look abroad.

And when I looked at the AUM, it almost lined up with this market cap weight. It was a little bit lower, which makes sense to me because bitcoin was first, and some people just click the box and move on, but they were 22 or 23% by assets. And from there, it's some pretty simple math. And you arrive, from my perspective, I mean, the number I got to was $15 billion over the next 18 months. But what you arrive at more fundamentally than that is that, yes, there's going to be significant demand for these etps.

I could be off by billions of dollars here or there, but it's not going to be zero, it's not going to be 100 billion, it's going to be really significant. You know, 10, 15, 20 in those ranges. And that's how I got there. David. Alex, you sent me a pretty robust research report from galaxy.

David Hoffman
Maybe you could talk about when that's going live, if that's going live, and talk about some of the methodology that went into creating that report. Yeah. So it's just really interesting, because I had a similar reaction to matt when watching people. And, charles, you, chuck on my team, who actually wrote this report. He and I were debating this now for a couple of weeks and laughing that we wrote our version of this for bitcoin months before they launched.

Alex Thorne
This one we just published on our website today. We sent to our clients and counterparties on Wednesday, the same day Matt wrote his. So I actually didn't see his until after we had published. It came to a very similar conclusion. Also used things like market cap waiting.

I think when I think about how institutional allocators or financial advisors are going to get exposure to crypto. I think it's pretty unlikely that they're going to choose to just own the bitcoin ETF. And then you start to say, okay, well, if I'm doing 1%, crypto, 2%, it's probably some weighting. And usually market cap waiting is where you might start. We also looked at things like the ratios between the bitcoin open interest on CME versus the eth open interest on CME.

Right. That's one where bitcoin is much larger, but it's 8.4 x eth. But also the aP's for the bitcoin ETF's use CME futures to hedge. So you presume that would go up if spot ETF launches open interest across all exchange, bitcoin's only two x bigger daily futures volume on CME. It's only four x bigger.

Anyway, we looked at the funds that we looked at the Grayscale Trust before launch, leading into launch and their relative sizes, that came down to us about an overall average of 3.2 x. Right. We sort of work with 30% as a multiplier, which, by the way, is basically the market cap weighting. So the idea, and we talk about a whole bunch of stuff about, we look at, obviously, now that we have empirical data from the bitcoin fund launches, that's our sort of starting point. So we say, okay, what if they perform proportionately the same as the bitcoin ones?

Now, that would be great performance, because the bitcoin ETF's, I think, really came out of the gate very strong. Frankly surprised everyone. We kind of got the number and price relationship right. But actually we said those 14.5 billion for the bitcoin ETF's were going to come primarily from the wealth platforms. And only 20% or so of the total reported 13 f filing shareholder was $100 million.

Investment manager bigger. So I think it was mostly retail. So that further colored. I know that, that people are very pessimistic. Maybe we'll talk about why.

And I acknowledge these things, the timing and other things related to it. But if we look at it and just say, what if they are as big, we didn't look past, like through the end of the year. Basically, we just said, we'll look at the first five months of bitcoin and predict the first five months of ETh. But we said a billion a month in net inflows, or 5 billion over five months. It's really not that much different than 15 over eight months, which is what Matt came to.

And I think the story I'm trying to, partly because I think people have so vastly underestimated the retail demand, the demand on brokerage platforms, and people's tax advantaged accounts in their brokerage windows and their 401 ks. I just think our report is more about saying, like, you know, maybe people are overthinking this. Maybe they're kind of mid curving this. And what if it's kind of like, well, ETF. Good.

David Hoffman
You know, that's one data point that we have with the ETH ETF, that the bitcoin ETf did not have the bitcoin ETF. So maybe we could really double down on that conversation like the bitcoin ETF. I think we were all surprised with the demand, and now we're kind of extrapolating that to the ETh ETF. Maybe that gets balanced out by the fact that the ETH price is higher now because of the success of the bitcoin ETF. So maybe those things cancel out, but just really, maybe, Alex, we could just double down one more time.

What did we learn from the bitcoin Etf that informs the eth eTF? Yeah, well, we see inflows into all the newly launched vehicles, right? And then, of course, that's weighted against the outflows from the Grayscale bitcoin investment Trust. And we expect, you know, there's obviously the ethereum version of that ETH. I don't know what it's like.

Alex Thorne
Ethereum, Grayscale, Ethereum trust. Probably people expect outflows from there, too. But I would also say part of the reason for outflows, in addition to people having played that trade, of trying to collapse the discount to Nav on GBDC is also because the fees really high, it's. They're still charging 1.5%, 150 bps on GBDC when all of the other issuers were in the high teens to like mid 20 range and also waived them. Almost all of them, I think, waived the fees for like the first six months or just some threshold or something like that.

So much cheaper vehicles launched. That caused a lot to come out of GBDC. So obviously, we say, hmm, ETH is a similarly structured product. It had a pretty large discount that collapsed, leading in to what we expect as a conversion. So we expect there's outflows there from people just closing that trade that they did right, where they, you know, they short futures and they long the trust in order to collapse that discount to Nav and the trust.

So outflows. We know there'll be outflows. So now that's why we're talking about net inflows. Right. But now we start calculating them.

We also have the whole first quarter that those 13 f filings, to me, were very telling. Like, you had, like, the top seven or something of the bitcoin ETF's by Aume were not really heavily institutionally owned. I mean, sure, there's some big names. A couple of them are above 20% of the filings, right. You have to make these filings if you're an investment manager that has more than $100 million in assets, you know, $100 million RIA, or wealth manager, isn't that big, right?

So, like, this would capture a lot of that, right? And only about 2020, 5% on the big ETF's had to file. That tells me that most of those shares are held at that fidelity.com e Trade TD Ameritrade. Right. Like Schwab, the retail brokerage platforms.

And, well, I mean, look, hedge funds and institutions can also use those platforms, but if they themselves are reportable, $100 million or more investment managers, doesn't matter where they have it, they would still report. So you're thinking, like, I'm thinking it's a lot of people that like crypto already, like, they liked bitcoin. Similarly, I think there's, at a minimum, a proportionate amount of people, maybe market cap weighted that, like, eth, probably fewer than bitcoin, but still a lot. And there are people with a lot of money in these accounts you can pull data on, like, separately managed accounts or 401K balances. So I think a lot of the ownership is on those platforms in the hands of regular people.

And that really surprised us. I think that there was that much demand coming from there because we can all buy bitcoin. For years, I've been buying bitcoin for. I didn't need an ETF. Like, people that want to buy bitcoin.

It's possible, right. But I don't know. You start to say, well, you know, I did go in and buy some of the ETF's in my tax advantage account where I wasn't able to buy bitcoin. So you just. To me, it's like, one of the main learnings here was to caution against underestimating it, because I think we did underestimate the bitcoin ETF's, even though plenty of people said they were going to be great.

I mean, I also thought they'd be great, but not that fast. Right. So that's sort of what underpins. I think that's probably the main learning I have from the bitcoin ETF's. Matt, how does this analysis vibe with you?

David Hoffman
Is that aligned with your thinking? Anything you want to add? Yeah, I think that's right. I think it stretched our Overton window of what an ETF could do. I mean, before these ETf's, the most successful ETF of all time gathered billion dollars in its first year, and we're at 15 in six months for the bitcoin ETF's.

Matt Hogan
So I think it recalibrated how successful this could be. I think what Alex mentioned is right. There was a lot of retail demand, I think a lot of retirement account demand. And let's be honest, crypto works really well in that setting. It's a long term investment with potentially very high gains that can be protected from a tax perspective.

That's three big boxes to check. And I think you saw significant flows into that space. So, yeah, it taught us that this is successful space. It expanded how successful it could be, and now it's also created a class of traditional investors who own crypto in a brokerage setting. And I think a lot of those people are going to add ETH on top of their bitcoin ETF exposure.

David Hoffman
Okay, I do want to get to the ETh flows metric. I know Alex kind of dropped the answer, but maybe if listeners weren't paying attention. I'm going to ask that for that in a bit, but I'm going to continue to drag this out because I have one side quest I want to get down. Are there any estimates about the next few months of the bitcoin ETF flows, or are we now in the world of. We'll just see it as it happens.

Right now we're in a bit of a lull. It kind of seems like the broader crypto market is priced to the flows. Trying to see what the flows are doing next. And the flows haven't done a lot. We've had some small updates, some small down days, but overall, I think we've, like, established an equilibrium in the bitcoin ETF flows.

Do you guys have any takes over the next, like two, three, six months of the flows for the. For the bitcoin ETF? Do you guys have any estimates about that? Alex, start with you. Yeah, I do.

Alex Thorne
I don't have any hard numbers, but I would say what we're waiting for, I think it's fair to say we've reached a bit of an equilibrium. I mean, there's definitely been some independent registered investment advisors that have come in. So you have some financial advisors. Right. But I think all the issuers, this is one of the weird things about the ETH ETF timing the issuers, I think Matt will know this as well, are all quite busy doing diligence with all the big wealth platforms right now to get their ETF's onto those platforms.

Those are the flows that I was always talking about that I know Matt and the team at bitwise has always been targeting like, this is the giant, like, piece of the pie. You know, I think we think it's 20, $40 trillion in either bank or broker dealer wealth management platforms. Right? So we're talking about, like, Morgan Stanley is the one that's been in the news a lot. It's been reported many times by Bloomberg and others.

So it's not that they've been actively looking to add these, like, quicker than most. I think they are the biggest, but as far as I know, it hasn't been reported that they have yet. Right. So for bitcoin flows, like outside of catalyst, for BTC, USD spot, bitcoin, I would say we're waiting for more platform access. They haven't really arrived yet.

That's the crazy thing about these. To me, it really is mostly a retail phenomenon. And so to the extent that that changes to the dominoes fall for these giant platforms to start allowing their advisors to solicit and sell these things, and you start seeing model portfolios get constructed and people start telling the story that Matt's talking about with the long term benefits, then I think that probably creates a whole new wave of demand. And that's what I thought these were for. Like I said, we could all already buy bitcoin.

Matt Hogan
Yeah, I think that's right. Every indication I have of that audience is that demand from that space is accelerating already. We're seeing increasing wins from that space. I'm sure Alex is seeing increasing wins from that space. And as mentioned, we expect to open up major new markets at the Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, bank of America's UBS of the world.

And I would just click down on that $40 trillion number. We're seeing 2.5% emerge as an average allocation. 2.5% of $40 trillion is a trillion dollars. We've done 15 billion. It's nothing.

I don't know what the flows will be in the second half of the year, but I expect that we'll see an acceleration as those account platforms come on and as the inevitable tailwinds behind crypto right now, which are massive, push us to new all time high prices. As we move to the end of the year, which I think we will see, I will also add, I expect 2025 flows to exceed 2024 flows. Wow. And I think we're going to build flows. Yeah.

Year after year for a number of years. There are two reasons for that. One is these wealth platforms coming on board and the institutional capital unlocking. And the other, again, to point back to data. Gold ETF's are the closest analog to this bitcoin ETF launch.

They were enormously successful out of the gate. They were the most successful ETF's ever at the time. And year two flows exceeded year one. Year three exceeded year two. Year four exceeded year three, all the way up to year seven.

When you open up new asset classes, it's a multi year phenomenon. So I do think we'll see accelerating flows in 25 and beyond. Matt, if you had to give an ending for what the bitcoin ETF's are in, in terms of their overall, like, maturity, like if we're at the 9th inning, then they are as, like, mature, their wine has aged, they're good to go. Like, what inning are we in? Yeah, we're like, maybe at the bottom of the first.

Maybe ETF's are slow burn business. I mean, I point back to those gold ETF's. They took one year off in year eight, and then they re accelerated again. Their highest year was 20 2016, years after they launched. Institutions need to buy trillions of dollars of crypto.

Right now, they own zero. And ETF's are going to be a primary vehicle. So I think, yeah, maybe it's the bottom of the first and the home team's coming up. Let's go ahead and get right to the punch here. Estimating the flows for the eth ETF.

David Hoffman
We talked about some of the analysis, the market cap weighting. What does that actually get us? What can we reasonably expect at launch? Maybe, and then also just five, six months into the future. Matt, let's start with you.

Matt Hogan
Yeah, I think at launch is the thing I'm the squirreliest about, because there's a big question in my mind how fast the money comes out of Ethi and whether there is some significant net outflows that could even exceed inflows for a short period of time. I don't know that that will happen. That didn't happen in bitcoin. But I do think people have sort of realized that that trade is inevitable and they're going to make that swap. And so maybe they accelerate the pace at which they make that swap.

Ryan Sean Adams
And so people know what you're talking about. Ethy is the grayscale trust with ether embedded inside. And the projection is that will kind of like bleed out. That will be a source of outflows for Ethereum ETF's in general. Yes, that's right.

Matt Hogan
And there are two types of investors in there, right there. There are investors who want to be long, Ethan, and they will probably sell the higher cost product and rotate into products from bitwise and galaxy. And then there are people who are just playing the arbitrage trade, who have bought Ethi because it's trading at a discount to its net asset value hedge themselves and are just waiting for that discount to disappear if there's a conversion, and then they'll exit the eth space. So the thing to worry about is whether those people exit it. And do new investors come in fast enough?

So I think in the few weeks around launch, I think it's possible for a variety of scenarios to happen. I actually have low confidence exactly what will happen in the few weeks around launch. I think as we get to month 2345 and six, this flood of money that's going to come into the space is going to make itself felt. I think we could easily be at five, 6 billion by the end of the year in net flows. And I think it could accelerate from.

Ryan Sean Adams
There in 2025 just really quick, because we do want a bottom line, some of those estimates. But the ETH e Grayscale Trust issue, this already played out to David's point earlier. We've already seen the script run with bitcoin. Of course, bitcoin had GBDC and that was a grayscale product. And the same sort of net effect happened here.

And I remember there as consternation or concern before the launch of the actual trading of these products and people asking these same questions is, can't we just take what happened to bitcoin and just like copy paste, apply it to Ethereum? And just like, as Alex was saying, not mid curve this thing, just like, hey, you know, this already happened. Let's just like play it back for Ethereum and it just a slightly lower market cap. I think that is the base case. I think that's the base case.

Matt Hogan
I would note that bitcoin sold off after its launch for a few weeks and then it rallied sharply to new all time highs. Again, if I had to make a base case analysis, I dont expect that to happen. I expect there to be enough new investors come in to offset it. But I just think investors should be prepared that the few weeks around launch will be an interesting period with lots of shifting dynamics. The long term story is $15 billion is going to come into these ETF's and push us to new all time highs.

And I think that will happen rapidly, but you have to keep the long story separate from the very short term chaos. There's cross charts that are worth keeping. By the way, for bankless listeners, their famous saying that just like most disagreements in crypto are over time horizons. So when you see different banter and disagreements on crypto, some of it's just a time horizon. And I remember in January, after the launch of the bitcoin products, when you price of bitcoin went down, the bears came out in storm and was like, see, it was sell the news we told you, and then boom, off like a rocket in the weeks after that.

Ryan Sean Adams
So just to get super clear on your estimates for inflows, then, Matt, then we'll turn it to Alex. So you think possibly like 5 billion or so in inflows in the first, you know, five to six months. But then ultimately, your analysis over 18 months is what, like 15 billion something to that effect? 15, yep. One.

Matt Hogan
5 billion by the end of 2017, 2025. Okay, and do you feel like that is a base case estimate, or is that leaning more conservative, or is that leaning more optimistic? And what are the things that could impact in one direction or another? Either cause your estimate to be less bullish than it should be, or, like, more bullish than it should be? It strikes me as slightly conservative because I think the market is underestimating the scale of the tailwinds behind Ethereum, for which I would focus on the changing regulatory environment in Washington and what that means for this ecosystem, the after effects of the Denkun upgrade, and what it means for the ecosystem.

I just think the ethereum ecosystem has these massive tailwinds behind it. And if we see those manifest in real organic growth in the space over the next twelve to 18 months, as I think we will, then I think my estimates will be low. So I guess I'd consider them conservative, slightly conservative for that reason. Okay, let's get to Alex's estimates. And so, Alex, you kind of gave some of these estimates early in the show, but I want to get you to underline it today.

Ryan Sean Adams
And I think it's important maybe to say that both of you arrived at these estimates of inflows independently. Yeah. Right. So, like, we're not talking like you didn't copy each other's work. This is not a case of plagiarism here.

You just crunched the data on your own, but you resulted in a similar calculation, I believe. Alex, what is kind of your end result estimate and over what time horizon for inflows? And the same question to you, is this like a base case estimate? Is it more towards bullish or more bearish? And what are the puts and takes?

Alex Thorne
Yeah, it is pretty remarkable because I've seen so many bearish takes, which is one of the things that I was cognizant of as we were preparing this over the last week and a half or so, and then saw Matt's thread literally like an hour before or after. We emailed this report directly to our people. And I was like, that's actually like he says, 15 billion over 18. We didn't look past basically the end of the year. We just said in our study, we were just going to look at the length of time the bitcoin ETF said exists, which when we first started writing was four and a half months.

We updated the data, make it five months. Right. So you think of July plus five months, that's through the end of the year. So we'll just look at that. Right.

But you know, 5 billion over five months is where we land. Right. Effectively net 1 billion per month. But I agree very wholeheartedly with Matt about the. It's going to be tricky, by the way, you know, what's going to color also, this ethnic outflow, if we get it, is the fee that they have now.

There's no guarantee that they do the same strategy where they keep it at 1.5%, we don't know yet. And the president of Grayscale has left. So it could be a whole different strategy. For all we know. That's a big factor for the cohort Matt described, who just want to be long Eth.

If all of a sudden the fee goes down to 20 bps, then maybe just stay right, which would reduce the outflow, on the other hand, and we spent a lot of work on this. That's why the ETH question is a big one for the netting of the demand. And then we spent a lot of time on the demand side, which I'll talk about in a second. But the eth e outflow, I mean, ETH has 2.4% of total circulating supply of ether. GBDC had 3.2%.

So it was bigger on a net basis or on a relative basis to the bitcoin network. So actually, it holds less. Even if half of it comes out in the first. How long did it take two months or so for GBDC to bleed half its bitcoin out to the market? Like, that's still slightly.

I mean, you know, almost a whole percent less, which, I mean, is reasonable. It's a notable difference. If we hold that through, then we're thinking, you know, if the exact same happens, Ryan, you said copy paste, then you'd have 54.2% of net outflows as of, like, last week when we did this. So that was out of GBDC. Slightly more than half has come out since they launched, since they converted.

The same thing would be a billion dollars a month. You know, by the time maybe like, you know, 150 days after the ETF, you'd start to see a billion dollars a month come out of ETh. You know, that it could take long. They could waive the fee briefly and then go back to a high fee that could temper outflows. There could also be a much higher percentage of shareholders in that vehicle that are playing that arbitrage trade than our long ethnic.

You don't, you know, you don't have great evidence on how much they are. If there are more of those, like hedge funds and arbitrage funds, market neutral funds, trying to play that thing with ETH on a relative basis than there were with GBDC, it could be worse. So we spent a fair amount of time on that. Ultimately, we came down. We still basically said, let's just take the proportions and line them up with GBDC and throw those two caveats.

What the fee they end up going with and what the hedge fund ARB ownership is of that we don't really know. But that could cause it to be like, really. I mean, if that fund is 80% owned by ARB traders, for all we know, it could be, then it could be quite ugly at first, right? But it's still only about $10 billion. Like, it's not that big in the scheme of things.

So I totally agree with Matt. I mean, this thing will resolve mostly one way or another. Either it'll reach its own equilibrium and the outflows will stop, or all of the outflows will happen and it'll be done right. Like, so I don't think long term, it's not a big overhang. And then, you know, from the demand side again, it really is, to me, about not overthinking this.

These products are. I mean, Matt's an ETF guy. Like, I'm not really like, by trade, but like, I've grown to love them. And they are great products. They are efficient, they are transparent, they're inexpensive to operate and to own.

People love eTF's. They're absolutely gobbling the asset management industry. So, you know, and Ethereum is one of the most popular investments in the world. So, like, I think the demand will come. Some of the things that make me think are we say, I think that 5 billion in the first five, basically is 30% of what we saw, which is about 15 two or something in the first five of bitcoin.

I think from what I've read, basically everyone other than Matt, even that is technically a little higher than what Matt has. If we just extrapolate, if I say a billion a month, I would theoretically be at 18 billion in 18 months. But we, we don't assume, like, a linear thing. We didn't look that far. But most people are much more pessimistic about this.

And there are reasons. Right. You do have tailwinds for sure, but you also have no staking. There's probably sophisticated Ethereum investors who would rather buy and stake their ETH rather than be diluted. Right.

And it's the summer. It's not nearly as good a time. I don't know. I haven't done a study on this, but summer is typically a pretty low volume time. You know the phrase buy in May or sell in May and go away.

Right. Right. It's not a great time for, like, lots of active investing. And the issuers, like, they're busy. The issuers, you haven't even seen really any of the issuers except for bitwise and grayscale.

And I think Ark has one. Most have not even done advertising yet. Right. Not really. Right.

So it's kind of. And they're actually just busy working on getting the bitcoin ETF still up and running like these. To Matt's point, these are long things, so, bunch of reasons why people are pessimistic. But, like, I think, I mean, obviously long run, like, let's be clear, like, bitcoin and ether are the obvious top two. Like, and by the way, top two in crypto.

I mean, that's just empirically obvious. It's also a narrative thing, though, to me. The other thing about this that's really interesting. Yeah. Okay.

I think Solana is reasonably, like the third chain that definitely matters in crypto, but you probably cover about, like, 80% of the narratives in all of crypto. If you just have exposure to bitcoin and ethereum, you know, it's what is it, 75 or 80% probably of the market cap. So this is a pretty full offering now for most investors. And so I see a lot of the people that longed bitcoin in the ETF's in particular, like owning both. I mean, I just see them owning both and maybe in a proportionate size, and these products fly off the shelves.

And ether is a very, very, very popular product. So Matt said one other thing, too, I wanted to add too, because he said there was a lot of hand wave saving on these people's estimates. We could have said, I do think they are inherently inferior to owning spot more than the bitcoin ETF is, than owning spot bitcoin, primarily because they don't have staking and primarily because ether has so much utility on chain. So you're getting diluted and you can't use it in deFi, right. That's a much bigger delta in functionality with the ETH ETF's than the bitcoin ETF's have.

So, but I'm like, how do I quantify that? Like, how do I. Oh, so what? I'll just be like, it's, instead of 30, we'll make it 20, right? Like, I don't know how to quantify that.

I don't know how to quantify. And we tried to be clear. We looked for ways to come up with like, an even more granular number that included more assumptions. And in the end, I think just the simplest one was like, we looked at the market cap ratio, we looked at the ratio between futures products for the two assets around the world, and we looked at the ratios between fun products around the world. And basically like, futures comes out to two x and funds come out to 3.8 x.

Like bitcoin being larger and like, that's basically 20% to 30%. So we're like, let's just go with that and be confident in the fact that retail outperformed the last time. Okay? So continuing to double down, saying no matter what way you slice, ends up looking like the market cap weighted average. I think so.

I mean, I think so. I really want to nail down this eth e thing because I think if we want to answer, like, what does price do in the short term, you got to look towards ETH and crypto looks. We honestly, we look in the short term, like, I want to know what happens in two to three weeks. And I just kind of want to nail down some of the variables here. The ETH is smaller relative to the overall market cap for Ethereum than bitcoin, so it has a lesser impact from that perspective.

David Hoffman
Also, we kind of have seen grayscale spin up that bitcoin mini trust in an attempt to, like, quote, stop the bleeding out of the GBTC trust. So maybe there's an idea that they might be incentivized to roll out the minitrust sooner rather than later, which might dampen the sell pressure. Nonetheless, there are people who are arbitraging the discount that previously existed and now are waiting for the ETF to be approved to just basically sell. That's kind of the biggest unknown variable. We don't really know about that, but it sounds like to me, to summarize all of these variables, the ETH e trust is at most equally bearish to the ETH price as the GBTC Washington to the bitcoin price or less or less than that because of the smaller size and potential, like incentives out of grayscale.

Matt, does that vibe with you and do you have any perspectives on this? Yeah, I think that's right. I would also just note that it's a non recurring issue. Like if you think about what's going to happen in this space, flows are going to come into these ETF's, assuming they launch on a continual basis for multiple years and eth we will get past. When companies report earnings, they classify expenses that are special and one time expenses as non recurring expenses.

Matt Hogan
And if you're looking at the overall value of the company, you exclude non recurring expenses because they were a one time thing. I think the right way to think about this is this is a non recurring event. There's going to be outflows. I think you've classified them right. David is equal to or less than with bitcoin, but they'll introduce a little bit of noise around the launch.

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Ryan Sean Adams
And then if you just expand that, similar to Matt's, and that's in terms of net inflows as well. Matt, just one quick question. Does this depend on us being in a bull market twelve months from now, 18 months from now, if we are no longer in a bull market, a crypto bull market, do your estimates change, or are you just saying that's a dependency? Of course we're going to be in a bull market in 18 months. Yeah, come on, man.

Matt Hogan
Of course my prediction is based on a generally positive market. It's not an extreme runaway bull market, which again, I do think is possible given the tailwinds. And it's not a earlier than expected crypto winter. If it's another crypto winter in 2025, then my estimate will go way down. Right.

Ryan Sean Adams
Okay. People are people. So this assumes what I predict, which is a good market for the next 18 months, which is my base case for what we'll see. Okay, so this is the $1 million question, or maybe the ten k question, let's say, which is, is what does this do for ETH price? All right, so we're talking in terms of inflows, and I think people are getting a sense for that.

But like, let's say we get 15 billion in inflows over the next 18 months. What does that do for the price of ether, the asset? Can we take some lessons from bitcoin? And how would you adjust that for this lower market cap asset? I'll throw that to Matt first.

Matt Hogan
Yeah, I think there are lessons you could take from bitcoin. GSR put out a report on this recently. They talked about how the bitcoin ETF effectively 2.5 x to bitcoin's price on its 1st 15 ish billion of inflows. They considered it from when it was clear to the Bloomberg team that we were going to get a bitcoin ETF, which was October until today. Right.

And bitcoin was around $27,000 when that happened. So they're counting all of that price appreciation, which I think is a reasonable estimate. Here. We have a much shorter window because everyone was bearish on these ETF's until a few weeks ago. And so we're just sort of building that estimate in will we see the same impact?

We're doing an analysis right now. So you're capturing us mid analysis on the price sensitivity of ETH to these inflows. I think there's an argument to be made that it could be stronger. That argument is based on the fact that there's effectively no net new supply in ETH, and there is net new supply in bitcoin right now. I always like to think of the market as two types of people, people who have to sell and people who can sell in bitcoin.

The people who have to sell are the bitcoin miners. And they've swallowed some of the demand that the bitcoin ETF's have had here. Net issuance, roughly zero. It depends on your timeframe, but roughly zero over recent periods. The only people that these ETF's can buy ETH from are people who don't have to sell.

So there may be more reflexivity in the price. I'm pretty optimistic. If we see these flows, we're moving to new all time highs. And just to quickly do the math for people, right? If we just get two and a half times the price of ETH at 3500 right now, we get something close to 9000 the price of ETH, which would be not only well beyond all time highs, it would be about a two x.

Ryan Sean Adams
And that's if we kind of replicate the bitcoin thing and we kind of price that in the trading around and the short term price around. Ether has been very interesting because we got that day of the ETH ETF approval and like just a God candle we called it. It was like 20% up or 25% up. And now I don't even know, like we're down from that, aren't we? So we've traveled all the way back down as if there was no ETH ETF approval day.

I know the broader crypto market is down as well. Right? So bitcoin, there's some, you know, mount Gox type stuff. There's all sorts of things. It's a slow summer.

Maybe people sold in May and they're just like checked out right now. But it feels like ether has not priced in very much of this inflow demand. What's your sense of this. Alex, what do you think is going to happen with ETH price if these inflow predictions are true? Yeah, you guys had a great episode last week about whether there were any bulls left, and you talked about a lot of those headwinds.

Alex Thorne
And I think that's probably more to do with, frankly, bitcoin price performance in the last month or two as well. And ethereum, we did do some sensitivity analysis. So think about this the same way as Matt. And look, I mean, I think we have it as issuance less burn on ETH is like a. Currently a 0.4%.

I'm looking at the actual supply as we published this a couple days ago, is 120 million. I've just back of the napkin. Anytime anyone asks me what the supply of ETH is, I've just said 120 million now for like a year and a half. So like, yeah, it is basically flat. So there is less issuance, but even more interestingly, so this is where I agree with Matt.

I think that actually ether is more price sensitive. The thing about this, you have what you have long term bitcoin hodlers. Sure. Long term eth Hodlers. Okay.

We can't really look at, you know, handicap it that well, but we could do something like, you know, not moved on chain for x amount of days. You know, like people that don't even stake their ETH, they just put it in multisig, you know, safe or something like that. Right? Same thing with bitcoin. Okay, we didn't even bother with that.

But let's do things we do know. Well, we know provably lost supply, that's not that big a number, but we'll say if you didn't move it. But, you know, in the last ten years on bitcoin, that's about 3.2 million coins. Now, strangely, crazily, we have seen at Galaxy, some people come out of the woodwork with these coins during this run. They didn't sell at 20k in 2017.

They didn't sell it 69k in 2021, and they didn't sell yet. And, and even then, a lot of these folks are looking for things like loans or yield, which is just crazy that there are people, they shouldn't be considered all lost coins. But if we do the same analysis, it's about 8 million ETH units. So that's only about six and a half percent of total supply versus 16% of bitcoin total supply. But then this is where it gets really different for ether.

Right. And I'm going to get to staking. In a second supply and bridges and smart contracts. 11.5% of ether is in smart contracts and bridges. So that's basically bridges and deFi.

You think about no staking yield, no ability to use deFi, at least yet. And with these ETF's, I mean, hopefully one day the traditional finance system can incorporate more of those features. But I don't see anybody that's using their ETH in that way saying, you know what, let's sell this eth, buy the ETF, right? So that supplies, in my mind, just totally off, or sell this ETH to someone who's going to use it to buy the ETF, right? Like, to me, that supply is totally off the table, right?

That's 11.5% of the supply, and then you have the stake supply, 32.7 million ETH are currently staked, right? They're earning rewards for helping validate the network. Not going to get those if you stake in these ETF's. And even if the ETF's could stake like they, you know, there'd be limits on how much and stuff. So, I mean, if you're able to stake, you're not going to enter the exit queue on the chain and then sell your ETH and then buy the ETF.

You're not going to rotate and you're not going to, if you're staking ETH, you're a long term ETh bull, right? Like no chance in my mind that that supply is available to be acquired by the ETF. So we actually had it at 8.7% discount to reported supply for bitcoin and a 15% discount to supply for ETH relative. So like it's less liquid in a supply basis, right? And by the way, it is also technically slightly less liquid on exchanges, the spot trading volume.

So I think effectively equal or smaller inflows could have an outsized or equal price impact. So higher price sensitivity. We haven't actually come, I think, all to an actual number here in this one. But basically that's how we look at it. I mean, I think there's actually less eth for sale relative to its total supply, I think, than there theoretically was for bitcoin.

And we also have a study, I mean, it's a pretty naive correlation analysis, but daily net flows to daily bitcoin price change, and it's correlated. I don't think that would surprise a lot of people. I hear some people trying to be the, well, actually, guy and say, well, actually the ETF's only did XYZ volume and there was this much exchange volume that day. So they're a small part of the story, but that never felt intuitively correct when we were going through that huge run in February and March. And, I mean, our correlation analysis shows that it absolutely is correlated.

I mean, it's not like, super correlated, but it's statistically significantly correlated the inflows to price. So if we. We see inflows, it should affect price. Theoretically, we see outflows, it should affect price. And ether is more sensitive to that than bitcoin.

But keep in mind, that means, like, if a whole bunch of outflows happen before the inflows start, then it could be more negative in the near term, right? It's sensitivity, not up only, but I mean, yeah, that makes me quite bullish. I'd be pretty shocked if we didn't see ether hit a new all time, I mean, all time highs. What, like 4800? Like, I mean, it's not that far.

Ryan Sean Adams
It's such a low bar. Yeah, I feel like that you could hit that by to the end of the year if these things launch. Well, can I give you a more bullish scenario? And then we'll put some cold water in this. So here's a bullish scenario for you in a timeline.

Okay? So let's say we are in the summer doldrums at sell in May, that sort of thing, right? When both you guys were saying, look, you know, just to get the amplifier that bitcoin had two and a half x, you say eth gets a little bit more, right? You know, three x. Right?

Now we're already at ten k, and here's how it could happen. So on Matt's birthday, we get the ethereum. ETF's trading, so that's July 8. And then things go down for a period of time, just like they went down with bitcoin. And it shakes out the market.

We start trading in the, like, two thousands, and people are like, oh, my God, the crypto bull market's over. I told you, you know, sell the news event. The Eth ETF was nothing. Tradfi hates it, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then we get towards the end of August and into September, okay?

And then these flows start to steadily build, and then that impacts eth price from a flows perspective, and then zip forward. Christmas time, we get you guys on a podcast, and we are celebrating ten k eth price. Okay. As a Christmas gift from crypto Kringle, it is given that to us. So that would be another interpretation of all of this.

And that's the one that I choose to hold my heart at the end of this conversation. Let me put some water on this parade, though, because we have been bullish from an inflows perspective. I want to get to something. Alex, you just said, which is like, I did see a lot of bearish sentiment on the ETH ETF. This was an analysis by Andrew King, who's a kind of a trader, and he actually threw into question what you were just getting at, Alex, on kind of the inflows, right.

We're talking about, you know, the 1514.5 or so billion in bitcoin ETF inflows, you know, 50 billion aum. And he says these aren't actually true inflows, guys, because there have been many delta neutral flows that need to be accounted for, so namely basis trade. You sell futures, you buy the spot ETF and spot rotation. So it's a bit more of like a rotation trader type play. And you can't really count this as a true inflow.

And then he goes on further and he says, if you take these delta neutral trades into account, then you actually don't see 15 billion in bitcoin ETF inflows. You see something closer to 5 billion. And then if you just extrapolate that to ether, you don't get the 15 billion in inflows. At the end of 18 months, you get something like 1.5 billion. So something a lot smaller dollar.

And he quantifies that on kind of the inflows estimate. He also has some qualitative bear case cold water to rain down on this parade that we'll get to first. But can I get your reaction to this kind of inflows calculation? Like, maybe these inflows are exaggerated because there's some other delta neutral trading that's going on in the background. Would you find this case compelling, or do you think that this is a possibility?

Alex? Oh, it definitely is a possibility. And Andrew is one of the, I think, most articulate of these more pessimistic cases that I've read. I'm not sure if he's wrong. I think, look, there were some big hedge funds that reported 13 f positions like Millennium and Schoenfeld, and Millennium is a pod shop.

Alex Thorne
They're a multi strategy hedge fund with many teams. My guess is that that was pure basis trade, and I think it was $3 billion. Right? So he says four and a half billion was the basis trade. Like that could be, right, because, I mean, I see one that think probably was, although we don't know, but probably was.

I would say that still he speculates there on what you had on the screen a second ago, Ryan, that we don't know if large holders he named block one converted their bitcoin into the ETF. I'm highly skeptical of this. I don't know any large holder that considered this. There's most likely, unless you happen to, I don't know what was the price? Right.

We'd have to look at when the inflow occurred, but you have to, for it to be tax neutral, you have to take a slight loss or have it be the exact same price. I think most people that are big holders that have been accumulating for a while, this would be a huge capital gains event for them. I don't see anyone needing to do that. I think if you, by the way, accumulated and held a lot of bitcoin for a long time, what, all of a sudden it's too hard to store on your hardware wallet or at your custodian. You've got to get into the ETF like you were fine for those, you know, four years, five years, ten years that you held all that bitcoin.

But gosh darn it, now I've got to take this tax event to just for the ease of going to my fidelity.com account and looking at it there. To me, I don't buy that. I'm not aware of any like evidence of that in size, and it doesn't make sense to me. So that only brings it down to 10 billion in net flows if we accept his basis trade number, first of all, which is still enormous. And I would say just as a caveat here too, ETh mostly had a higher funding rate on exchanges than bitcoin.

So you probably see flows from the delta, from the trade, from the basis trade here too. So hard to place. Exactly. You know, if we look at like annualized basis, you assume people will be playing that it's much. You've been doing this trade for years anyway.

You don't need the ETF's for that. Just makes it a little easier. Matt, I'm going to add some more cold water to make it even more challenging for you. All right, my friend. So I want you to comment on those inflows in a minute.

Ryan Sean Adams
Right? And he says it's delta neutral recall and like closer to 1.5 billion than 15. So a lot lower than your estimate. He also gives qualitative reasons why he said, personally, I believe the expectations are crypto natives are overinflated with respect to the Ethereum ETF and its interest among tradfi allocators. It is natural that those deep in crypto have relatively high mind share and buy in on Ethereum.

But in reality, the large groups, tradfi, the key portfolio allocators, are not crypto native. They're not interested in buying ether. He also says that this whole property of ETH as a cash machine, well, it's actually not that impressive from a price to sales ratio perspective or a P E ratio perspective, particularly after net issuance and inflation. So if traditional investors are looking at this as kind of like a cash flow PE growth tech stock play, they won't be impressed either. So you got the quantitative net inflows, like, it's a bunch of delta neutral stuff.

You can't count it. And then you got the qualitative. Like, tradfi doesn't care. I mean, bitcoin was the brand name and it came first. Right?

And now you've got Ethereum, and like, how are they going to look at this asset? And the PE ratio is not very impressive relative to other growth tech stocks. What do you make of that? Yeah, that's a trio of arguments. I'm ready to swat them down.

Matt Hogan
So, on the first one, you know, I deducted $10 billion of assumed aum in the bitcoin ETF's related to the basis trade and things that I didn't think would appear in ETH. I think it's a question of whether they appear in ETh or not. But my estimate already removed two x, what the basis trade likely is from estimated AuM. And I think that the dual mistakes that Andrew are making, and I agree, he's a great analyst. He's assuming the bitcoin ETF Aum is static and not going to continue to grow, which is an extremely bearish view.

And then when you start deducting these blocks of $10 billion, they come right out of the end result. So even small changes, one to one, translate into flows. So you pull that number straight down. So, already accounted for, at least in my estimate. And I know Galaxy thought through these issues as well, because the basis trade is really well known.

So you can see that in my write up on the tradfi doesn't care. I do think that's a mid curve analysis. I will say tradfi's point of view is like, I want to own crypto. I want to be diversified. I think they're not thinking about even things like different use cases or things I wish they thought about, about ETH, and they found it interesting.

And these platforms, etcetera, they're just like, oh, I could own 50% of the market. That sounds like a coin flip. Or I could own 72% of the market. That sounds like a better bet. I'm going to own 72% of the market.

I don't own one stock, I don't own one bond. I think this diversification narrative is just the dominant narrative for most non crypto native people. I just want to own this space. So I think he's maybe sort of overthinking it from a qualitative perspective. Like, they're not doing the discounted cash flow analysis and trying to project Mev and validator income and like issuance and all of these things.

No, they're just like, you know, I don't own one stock. Why would I own one credit crypto? I don't want to own 50% of the market. I want to own most of the market. You know, I'm just going to diversify.

I'm just going to buy both. That's what I hear from advisors day in and day out on the price to sales stuff. I do love all the analysis that people put out on discounted cash flow models for ETH because it's really fun to look at. And Bitwise has its own analysis, and Vaneck has a great analysis, and Stonex has a great analysis. There is an issue with them, which is they're making these assumptions, and as you tweak the assumptions modestly, your outcome changes dramatically.

That's why all of these arrive at a price target between $200 and $100,000. And that's like not really super helpful to me. The value of those price to sales analyses is that they show that eventually this can be a cash flow driven asset. It's like doing a discounted cash flow model on a series a startup. You end up with such wide variances.

What you're looking at, is it going after a large addressable market, and is there a reason it would be valuable? And that's what those things show. From my perspective, you can get to very large numbers with certain assumptions, or very small numbers with other assumptions. I think they serve their purpose. I think a far better way to think about the price of ETH is that the price today reflects the conditions today and is probably accurate.

And we have this huge demand shock coming and no new supply. I think that's a much more accurate reflection of what's going to happen in the price than toggling with discount factors on DCF models. To arrive at one price or the other. Just really quickly on the point about toggling DCF variables. Tradfi investors did not do that with bitcoin.

Ryan Sean Adams
Right. So they're already trained to just, like, look at a crypto asset and completely ignore DCF. Not that they should in the scheme of things. I know have some great cash flowing, productive assets in crypto. But there's no DCF going on for purchase of bitcoin.

Matt Hogan
No, that's correct. And I think with ETH, what they want to know is, oh, this is the platform on which tokenization will take place. This is the platform on which stable coins will take place. There's a platform on Defi taking place. BlackRock is launching money market funds built on ETH.

This could be this new platform for how finance works in the world. I want a piece of that, and I think that's basically enough. Remember, this is a small part of their investment portfolio. It's a couple percent. They just need to know that it's going after this huge, addressable market that serious firms are building in the space that there's massive new demand coming online and no new supply.

And that's enough for me, guys. It's been fantastic. Really appreciate you guys coming on and sharing with us some of your analysis and thoughts. I just want to tie off a few conversations. Conversations.

David Hoffman
Before we wrap this thing up. Yesterday, Vanek announced their sole ETF solana ETF filing. I'm wondering what your guys reactions were to that, because I think the general industry perception was like, wow, that's ahead of schedule. Matt, when you saw that, what were your first thoughts? Yeah, I mean, it's clever in a sense.

Matt Hogan
There are two facts that are relevant here. And Vanex, a great firm, friendly, but the firm, we're investors in, some of their products. Two facts are relevant. There's never been a commodity ETF approved by the SEC currency without a parallel regulated futures market. There's the spot bitcoin ETF and the regulated bitcoin futures market.

Potentially this ETH ETF in a regulated market, the gold product in the approval of that reference, the gold futures market. And there is no regulated Solana ETf. So in a sense, it bucks ETF history. The other fact is that the SEC has 240 days to review these applications, and 240 days from Vanek's filing is sometime in mid February, which is about when a new SEC commissioner would come in. And so I think that's sort of like the bull case and the bear case to that filing.

David Hoffman
They're trying to, like, shoot a gap trying to, like, roll double sixes. It sounds like it's a hail Mary, right? Let's say. I mean, many of us saw the presidential debate last night, right? Who knows what could happen?

Ryan Sean Adams
Let's say a crypto friendly president takes off office and decides to do crypto a bunch of favors, like replaces the SEC. And that infrastructure is all set up in February. Then I guess Vanek is just like, hey, we threw the pass way back in summer, and somebody can catch it in February. But low likelihood, maybe event, but still possible. Yeah, I don't think that's an unreasonable take on it.

Matt Hogan
That sounds about right to me. And look, eventually we're moving in the direction of having multiple crypto assets with ETPD, just like you see in Europe, just like you see in other markets. So it's directionally that right? Bet. I think the specifics are what you said.

It's a low probability, high payoff event. Smart. And, you know, it's the direction of travel for this industry anyway, so kudos to them for sticking their neck out there. Alex, the last time I saw you was at a galaxy event where I listened to Mike Novo kind of give, like, a quick, like, download on the state of the industry, the state of the market as it stands in 2024 for. We're kind of in a little bit of a lull, like I said, with bitcoin inflows finding some sort of equilibrium.

David Hoffman
Market price hasn't really moved in any major crypto asset in the last, like, three months. I'm wondering just like a kind of a mid market, mid cycle check in. Like, what are your sentiments? Bullish. Bearish?

Like, comfy? Like, what are your thoughts? I think I'm right now for this summer. I think it's hard for me to take conviction on major moves in any way. Right.

Alex Thorne
I'm actually pretty confused about the state of this market. I'm not embarrassed to say I think I'm optimistic about the Ethereum. ETF's driving more interest and demand in what is otherwise going to be a very strange summer. I think with one of, it appears maybe one of the most bizarre summer campaign seasons that we've ever seen is about to unfold. It's going to capture a lot of mind share, frankly.

For all I know. If they do launch Ethereum ETPs into that might actually be even more bullish. For all I know. It's really hard for me. I think for me, the election itself in November is a very clear capture catalyst, and I also would commend van Eck.

They also have a history of filing early, right? They were the first filer for the ETH ETP also. And it is true that that's been the pathway. Part of the reason the pathway for the sole ETF's was that is because that was the argument that the SEC made for denying bitcoin ETF's the whole time, that they lacked a regulated market of sufficient size. That was effectively overturned by the DC Circuit Court of Appeals in grayscale.

And that's what led to the bitcoin ETF's. ETF's eventually being approved. And Matt's absolutely right. Ether has gone through the exact same thing. CME futures, CME futures ETF's actually Canadian.

Spot ETF's not like, that's really a factor for the SEC. And then hopefully and potentially spot ETF's. And I like Matt Siegel a lot. I read his argument for this on Twitter, and he was like, well, they could just like, surveil Coinbase. And that may be true because it is a little bit arbitrary that it has to be this process.

Process. But that would be new, right? That would be unprecedented. And think about this. If you're a commodity, there's no central exchange for gold, right?

Gold trades literally everywhere. Trades in pawn shops. It trades all over the world, right? Equity securities typically trade in one exchange, right? I mean, they can be derivatives and available elsewhere, but you surveil that one exchange and bam, you've basically surveilled it.

That's why you surveil futures exchanges for commodity surveillance, right? So if Solana is a commodity, which of course they are arguing it is, because they're filing for a commodity based trust product, then it should probably have futures, right? I mean, pretty much they all do. So to me, I think absent a change in posture at the SEC, this gets rejected. But we may have a change in posture coming at the SEC, and the timing makes sense.

And also, they don't have a lot to lose. I mean, this is a professional, fun shop. Like, sure, the s one s, they're big documents, but I mean, they can write those. It's not, they're not a small startup, right? Like, they can file.

Like, that's not the end of the world. Worst case, what, the SEC gets a little annoyed. It's not, certainly not illegal to file for any product at all, really. I mean, so I commend it, frankly. And also, I hope we get.

One of the things that makes me bullish, Ryan, is that I think right now, the cryptocurrency industry has more influence in policy than at any other time. And it may be more influence now than it is even if the most pro crypto White House Congress takes office. I think right now is when the politics are dictating a game theory. That is, everyone needs to listen to us so we could actually get legislation that is great for crypto. One of the main things the industry has wanted for years is a clear delineation between the CFTC and the SEC, specifically defining what is a digital commodity versus a digital security.

That could moot this whole question, basically. Right. I mean, so there are pathways that get very positive with the weird policy and politics backdrop that I think is going to dominate the narratives for this entire summer. So it's hard for me to think about markets elsewise, sort of outside of that at the moment. One thing I will add that also has me concerned not so much for eth or even really Solana.

Solana a little bit, but unlocks. There is a giant amount of supply that was created by venture capital capitalists and investors in 21 and two. That is, you know, you do a token deal in 21 with a three year lockup that's coming up now. Right? 80 billion in token unlocks between now and the end of 2026.

The entire liquid crypto hedge fund industry is 20 billion in AUM. So there's a big, really, again, outside the scarce assets of bitcoin and ethereum, kind of outside Solanas is a long, linear unlock. It's not as dramatic, but there are some wild, like, you know, supply events coming across the altcoin complex that make it tricky for me over the next. I mean, truly, I'm wondering, especially if retail is not here in size. So that's how I'm thinking about it.

I'm waiting for the election. I'm thinking maybe policy can be a positive catalyst in the near term as well. Yeah, those are great takes, Alex. So, yeah, I do agree with you that, like, market caps beyond bitcoin and ether get a lot softer as you go down that world. That I almost said world coin because it was on the top of my mind as you go down that long tail.

Ryan Sean Adams
I mean, world coin, I did see fDv, you know, 100 billion, something like that, with a very low flow. I think it actually, I looked, I think it has 500% inflation between now and the end of the year. It's a lot for the market to absorb down market. So that could be an impact. I also think that people in general have not acknowledged the massive shift of wins that we felt in politics.

Us like we are peak regulatory FUD in this country and we are well beyond that. We could be in a position where the winds start to blow at our backs and move in crypto's favor. Like I saw the debate last night. Also regulators getting slapped down in the courts, not just the SEC, the Chevron case, like all sorts of things going on and I don't think the market has fully priced that in. Matt, give us kind of your summary take on the markets, then we'll close this out.

Matt Hogan
Matt? Yeah, I think there are lots of short term negatives and lots of very big long term positives and I think that's what we're seeing in the market. Market bitcoin is still a dominant player and people are worried about Mount Gox and they're worried about the us government selling and they're worried about short term liquidity issues. Alex mentioned the unlocks downstream in the altcoin space and that's all short term. But if you pan out again and look long term, I agree that the market hasn't wrestled with how big the shift in Washington is and I think if it fully understood that we would be at all time highs, I think the market hasnt fully appreciated that these ETF inflows are multi year stories and that were really just in the early stages.

And I think if they appreciated that again, wed be much higher and they havent appreciated just how little institutions have come into this market. If you look at any other major asset, professional investors hold the majority of that asset and here we're still in a few percentage points. They have to buy trillions of dollars. And so, yeah, I think those short term negatives in the summer are weighing on us. But as we approach the election and approach the end of the year, the tailwinds are just going to be so strong.

I think it's going to be a really fun time and we can get back together to talk about it. This is my kind of episode. Yeah, mine too. Let's hope these products launch either before your birthday or on your birthday, Matt. And, you know, maybe there's hope, hope of five digit eth at some point soon this cycle.

Ryan Sean Adams
Matt, Alex has been great to have you on bankless. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. Yeah, thanks for having me. Bankless listeners gotta let you know, none of this has been financial advice.

Of course, you know, crypto is risky even when it's in an ETF. You could lose what you put in. But we are headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone, but we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey.

Thanks a lot.